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SystemSystem Posts: 12,622
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab out – Stewart the big gainer

The result 33 votes being required to stay in Gove 41Hunt 46Javid 33Johnson 126Raab 30Stewart 37

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,259
    Go Rory!!!!!!!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Raab's voters should go to Javid to take out Stewart.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,259
    All the momentum is with Rory.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    edited June 2019
    Fourth like Rory (for now).
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Hoorar!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,508
    Glad Stewart is still in. Not sure about him on Brexit but I do like the rest of what he is saying.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    5th

    Like Saj
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rottenborough said:

    All the momentum is with Rory.

    All the ramping is with Rory.

    Surging all the way into 4th ...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Boris still floundering to pick up 2/5 of MPs

    Can’t see Rory getting many from Raabs supporters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,954
    Next round needs 55 ?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1141029096887128065


    This lending of votes is going to make Boris campaign look frit.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Betfair updates:

    Bozo 1.19
    Rory 11.5
    Jezza 20
    Gove 50ish
    The Saj 200ish
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    Well, now.

    Rory the Tory has the big 'mo'.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,300
    Bloody Gammon. Look what Brexit has enabled

    "Teenage neo-Nazis who incited terror attacks on targets including Prince Harry have been jailed.

    Michal Szewczuk and Oskar Dunn-Koczorowski were members of a group calling itself Sonnenkrieg Division, described as the “third generation” of banned terrorist group National Action."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/neo-nazi-trial-terror-prince-harry-michal-szewczuk-oskar-dunn-koczorowski-a8963396.html
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Philip_Thompson said:

    rottenborough said:

    All the momentum is with Rory.

    All the ramping is with Rory.

    Surging all the way into 4th ...
    I like the percentage increases
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    AndyJS said:

    The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.

    Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Well done Rory. Raab surprises me a little, on the upside, given most of the hardliners have plumped for Boris. Maybe a few at least upset at Boris obviously playing both sides? But these MPs never seem to notice that in the moment.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Question now: does the Saj do a Hancock now? He appears to have no route forward, and is probably out tomorrow ..... might be able to extract something out of Bozo before that.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Stewart clearly now in with a chance of getting to the number 2. only 4 off gove...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Someone today told me they thought Rory came second in the first round and was very surprised when I said he did not. His profile raising has been effective on that front.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.

    Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.
    Interesting dynamic tonight - Hunt and Gove will have to target Rory rather than Boris.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1141029096887128065


    This lending of votes is going to make Boris campaign look frit.

    He doesn't want a coronation may be more the thinking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    No rejected ballots. I'd almost like one MP to just say screw it and write in Thatcher or something.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2019
    The Saj spokesman: "We fight on, to victory!" [mildly paraphrased]
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Will the 20 or so undeclared Rory backers start admitting they have a case of Rorymania?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Should've put money on Raab going out. Ah well.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Ideal result now for the party is Boris v Stewart in the members vote.

    Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.

    Win-win.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.

    Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.
    It is not easy debating something where you have given your supporters diametrically opposite promises. It is not so much giving a speech he fears, it is the public scrutiny of the obvious lies that his backers are willing to ignore for now, but at some point at least one of the groups will feel betrayed over.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,059
    The change from the first round is:

    Boris +12
    Hunt +3
    Gove +4
    Stewart +18
    Javid +10
    Raab +3

    Hancock -20
    Leadsom -11
    Harper -10
    McVey -9

    I expect Rory picked up most of Hancock's with the others being more equally split.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    yup

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1141031917204246529
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2019
    Loan votes. If Boris (+12 since R1) did lend votes to other candidates then it was not to Jeremy Hunt (+3) as we'd been told. The two biggest gainers (aside from Boris himself) were Rory and Saj. Is Boris boosting one of that pair or was the whole tale a crock?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Raab's voters should go to Javid to take out Stewart.

    Time for #OperationStopRory to begin... :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    RobinWiggs said:

    Ideal result now for the party is Boris v Stewart in the members vote.

    Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.

    Win-win.

    I half speculated that as the hope particularly for SCON, to hopefully retain at least some of the non no-deal Tories and limit the damage. A bit convoluted as theories go though.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1141029096887128065


    This lending of votes is going to make Boris campaign look frit.

    Shame ladbrokes didn't leave that 10/1 boris sub 130 votes up longer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    noneoftheabove said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.

    Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.
    It is not easy debating something where you have given your supporters diametrically opposite promises. It is not so much giving a speech he fears, it is the public scrutiny of the obvious lies that his backers are willing to ignore for now, but at some point at least one of the groups will feel betrayed over.
    They have more than enough evidence to fear betrayal already. People seem to either be ignoring those concerns, or feel only he can save their vote share anyway, so it is a risk they have to take.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,479
    I think Gove is in trouble. The Saj will pick up a lot of Raab transfers and squeak through again. I could see Gove lose backers to Stewart as well now.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Stewart bandwagon is in full flow. Boris must be furious.

    Why? I know we joke he doesn't want to be challenged in any way, but he is ok at debates and speeches, and Rory could improve his standing among members massively and still be well well back. As for overall numbers, Boris still outstrips everyone else easily, and has that hold on the members.
    Interesting dynamic tonight - Hunt and Gove will have to target Rory rather than Boris.
    A good move for Gove would be drop out and support Hunt or even Rory. Assuming he prefers a 20% chance of stopping Boris over a 2% chance of being next PM.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,300
    edited June 2019
    Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?

    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1140983038555410432
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Ideal result now for the party is Boris v Stewart in the members vote.

    Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.

    Win-win.

    I half speculated that as the hope particularly for SCON, to hopefully retain at least some of the non no-deal Tories and limit the damage. A bit convoluted as theories go though.
    Though it would be interesting how close the percentages would be in the members vote?

    I suspect that Rory would get a lower share than Owen Who?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,259
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    yup

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1141031917204246529

    Possible. I have laid off a bit of my Rory at 11. Still leaves me plenty of red.

    What a ride he has had. And not over yet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,479
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    yup

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1141031917204246529

    But Stewart might beat Gove.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,059
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Loan votes. If Boris (+12 since R1) did lend votes to other candidates then it was not to Jeremy Hunt (+3) as we'd been told. The two biggest gainers (aside from Boris himself) were Rory and Saj. Is Boris boosting one of that pair or was the whole tale a crock?

    Hancock votes to Rory and Harper votes to the Saj seems possible.

    But there might be a bit of individual churn from MPs changing their mind after what they've seen.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Rory nailed on now

    Rory v Corbyn #GE2019
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andrew said:

    Question now: does the Saj do a Hancock now? He appears to have no route forward, and is probably out tomorrow ..... might be able to extract something out of Bozo before that.

    Is there a vote tomorrow?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Philip_Thompson said:

    kle4 said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Ideal result now for the party is Boris v Stewart in the members vote.

    Boris brings back the Brexit Party vote, whilst Stewart shows there are normal tories around who care about more than Brexit.

    Win-win.

    I half speculated that as the hope particularly for SCON, to hopefully retain at least some of the non no-deal Tories and limit the damage. A bit convoluted as theories go though.
    Though it would be interesting how close the percentages would be in the members vote?

    I suspect that Rory would get a lower share than Owen Who?
    I'm sure that's true. 38% would be a surprisingly large result for him. But it would be fine to see how the members responded to his message in person.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,300
    Ave_it said:

    Rory nailed on now

    Rory v Corbyn #GE2019

    The 3rd and 4th place play off nailed on
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    MaxPB said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    yup

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1141031917204246529

    But Stewart might beat Gove.
    Stewart will pick up 0 Raab votes, Gove as the last non Boris Leaver left may pick up some Raab votes.

    Gove gained more MPs than Hunt did today too
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited June 2019
    MaxPB said:

    I think Gove is in trouble. The Saj will pick up a lot of Raab transfers and squeak through again. I could see Gove lose backers to Stewart as well now.

    I'm sure Gove will come up with some duplicitous scheme to get past Rory. :D
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    MarkHopkins said:


    Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.

    Provided he has a third plus one, he's in the last two!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Ave_it said:

    Rory nailed on now

    Rory v Corbyn #GE2019

    Has AVEIT4ESTHER become AVETIT4RORY ? :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Raab's voters should go to Javid to take out Stewart.

    Yes, I was thinking the same thing. Naturally they'd almost all support Boris from now on, with maybe a couple for Gove.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,499
    MarkHopkins said:


    Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.

    "I have as much chance of becoming Prime Minister as of being decapitated by a frisbee or of finding Elvis."
    - Boris, 2003.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    Presumably Boris made sure Javid got into the debate to reduce the amount of time he will have to talk for tonight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    yup

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1141031917204246529

    But Stewart might beat Gove.
    Stewart will pick up 0 Raab votes, Gove as the last non Boris Leaver left may pick up some Raab votes.

    Gove gained more MPs than Hunt did today too
    Yes, is Hunt in trouble (of getting second that is)? He's the physical embodiment of the concept of 'meh' as far as I can see, no enthusiasm behind him at all. I like an appeal to dull competence, but even if he has that it is not waht they want.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Now that Raab is safely out of the way, it's OK to tell Steve Baker, Mark Francois etc what Boris is telling everyone else.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,905
    Beeb just interviewed some Tories in Sale Con Club.

    Old Woman number one: 'I'm surprised Michael Gove's still in in, to be honest'

    Popular as ever.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,080
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now that Raab is safely out of the way, it's OK to tell Steve Baker, Mark Francois etc what Boris is telling everyone else.

    Defect to TBP, VoNC the government before the Tories have a new leader? That's what I'd do (but then I wouldn't be so stupid as to belong to the Tory Party).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,059
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Now that Raab is safely out of the way, it's OK to tell Steve Baker, Mark Francois etc what Boris is telling everyone else.

    They will be giving Graham Brady their letters of no confidence before he's even announced the winner.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Speculation on people pulling out - but if anyone goes to debate why would that person then pull out before the next vote?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Rory nailed on now

    Rory v Corbyn #GE2019

    Has AVEIT4ESTHER become AVETIT4RORY ? :D
    Yes missing Esther! :lol:

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited June 2019
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MarkHopkins said:


    Boris has 40% of the MPs + will probably pick a few up from Raab supporters => Boris is in final two => Boris is next PM.

    "I have as much chance of becoming Prime Minister as of being decapitated by a frisbee or of finding Elvis."
    - Boris, 2003.

    "No woman in my time will be prime minister or chancellor or foreign secretary - not the top jobs. Anyway, I wouldn't want to be prime minister; you have to give yourself 100 percent."
    - Margaret Thatcher

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    I think Boris did tacticals for Hunt but they were disguised as Hunt lost votes to Stewart.

    If that's right then it may not be possible for Boris to get Hunt in the Final.

    I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.

    But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    The next vote is tomorrow, not Thursday as I'd assumed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,839
    This selectorate are so far adrift from the population as a whole that if this is how you choose a Prime Minister in the UK then lets get the Marxist Corbyn in to shake things up as soon as possible
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    isam said:

    Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?

    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1140983038555410432

    Blimey. Paging Dr Foxy!

    It is well known that the former Foreign Secretary Dr David Owen, previously a neurologist, would provide MI6 with health assessments of foreign leaders he met.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    Sir Hugo Swire first Raab backer to back Boris on Sky News
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Round 2 Thoughts :

    Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
    Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
    Gove - 41 - As Hunt
    Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
    Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
    Rabb - 30 - BREXITED
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    AndyJS said:

    I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.

    Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for Javid
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    AndyJS said:

    The next vote is tomorrow, not Thursday as I'd assumed.

    Next vote tomorrow and will be multiple votes on Thursday if needed.

    By this time Thursday we'll have the final two.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1141034580801130496
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    MikeL said:

    But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.

    He would be mad to risk it.

    So we should consider it a distinct possibility.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.

    Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for Javid
    I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Debate thought.

    Hunt, Gove and Javid will look to very strongly attack Rory. He is the main threat to their final two aspiration.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    yup

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1141031917204246529

    But Stewart might beat Gove.
    Stewart will pick up 0 Raab votes, Gove as the last non Boris Leaver left may pick up some Raab votes.

    Gove gained more MPs than Hunt did today too
    Yes, is Hunt in trouble (of getting second that is)? He's the physical embodiment of the concept of 'meh' as far as I can see, no enthusiasm behind him at all. I like an appeal to dull competence, but even if he has that it is not waht they want.
    Hunt now looks Portillo 2001 to me
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Andrew said:

    The Saj spokesman: "We fight on, to victory!" [mildly paraphrased]

    Oh dear. "We fight on" is the one phrase not to use in this context.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1141034580801130496

    Quack, quack!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.

    Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for Javid
    I wonder whether Hunt might consider his position in the race. Unlikely since he's still in second place.
    Only if he comes 3rd tomorrow
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.

    Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for Javid
    I know The Saj only just squeaked in, but he rose more than Gove and Hunt, and is surely in a better position for even a few Raab transfers than Stewart, it seems a reasonable result.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    JackW said:

    Round 2 Thoughts :

    Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
    Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
    Gove - 41 - As Hunt
    Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
    Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
    Rabb - 30 - BREXITED

    In other words, RORY to win!

    #rory2019

  • John_McLeanJohn_McLean Posts: 71
    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think Gove is in trouble. The Saj will pick up a lot of Raab transfers and squeak through again. I could see Gove lose backers to Stewart as well now.

    I'm sure Gove will come up with some duplicitous scheme to get past Rory. :D
    Sarah Vine will think of something, she's got those curtains in the cupboard that she wants to hang in no 10
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,499
    kle4 said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1141029096887128065


    This lending of votes is going to make Boris campaign look frit.

    He doesn't want a coronation may be more the thinking.
    I would say only Howard's was a coronation, as he was the only candidate. It's easy to forget that May won the first the round in 2016 with an overall majority (just - due to Dave abstaining).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.

    He would be mad to risk it.

    So we should consider it a distinct possibility.
    Wouldn't it be wonderful if Johnson organised massive tactical voting and came third?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    I wonder whether Rory Stewart is having 10 phone lines installed at his headquarters.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    John_McLean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think Gove is in trouble. The Saj will pick up a lot of Raab transfers and squeak through again. I could see Gove lose backers to Stewart as well now.

    I'm sure Gove will come up with some duplicitous scheme to get past Rory. :D
    Sarah Vine will think of something, she's got those curtains in the cupboard that she wants to hang in no 10
    Curtains for Gove?

    We can but hope.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,059
    JackW said:

    Round 2 Thoughts :

    Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
    Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
    Gove - 41 - As Hunt
    Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
    Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
    Rabb - 30 - BREXITED

    Rory wont get the votes from Vacuous ToryBoy as he did from Trendy Vicar.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MikeL said:

    I think Boris did tacticals for Hunt but they were disguised as Hunt lost votes to Stewart.

    If that's right then it may not be possible for Boris to get Hunt in the Final.

    I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.

    But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.

    There is no real evidence of any loan votes. There were 50 votes up for grabs from the candidates eliminated in round 1, and the simplest explanation is that those 50 went mainly to Saj (+10), Rory (+18) and Boris (+12). That's 40, and the other three shared 10 extra votes. No need to posit churns, defections and loans.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MikeSmithson said:

    We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM

    Did you bet on him?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Ave_it said:

    JackW said:

    Round 2 Thoughts :

    Boris - 126 - Lower than expected. Expectation management poor
    Hunt - 46 - Poor result. In for a desperate fight for second
    Gove - 41 - As Hunt
    Rory - 37 - Has the big mo for second place.
    Javid - 33 - Phew. Last of the rest but put on 10 votes
    Rabb - 30 - BREXITED

    In other words, RORY to win!

    #rory2019

    Are you backing Rory?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,258
    Casino_Royale said:

    MikeL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    MikeL said:

    The question is why did Boris not go up more?

    Maybe he DID do some tacticals and some people switched from Hunt to Stewart.

    I think that's what happened.

    Which means Hunt's position is even weaker than it looks.
    If that's right then may not be possible to get Hunt in the Final.

    I guess the question for Boris then becomes should he switch tacticals to Gove? With a fair number of Raab likely to go to Gove anyway then Gove could well move into 2nd place in the next ballot.

    But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.
    When the facts change its time to change your opinion.

    The best move for team Boris now might simply be to welcome any challenger, including Stewart.

    It's not like Rory's plan to achieve Brexit is any more credible than Boris's.
    It's technically more credible in the sense that we know the EU would accept what he is proposing, it's just equally not very credible on how to get parliament to agree something the EU will also agree.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    But my suspicion now is that Stewart will make the Final unless Boris goes for massive tactical voting - but that would require his vote count to fall - which he surely won't risk.

    He would be mad to risk it.

    So we should consider it a distinct possibility.
    Wouldn't it be wonderful if Johnson organised massive tactical voting and came third?
    It would be a foretaste of his performance as PM, and fortunately, stop us ever finding that out for certain.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,049
    MikeSmithson said:

    We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM

    Under those older rules it'd probably have been Hunt.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,828
    MikeSmithson said:

    We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM

    A new leader was blatantly railroaded into power out of personal animus from Macmillan towards R A Butler - Alec Douglas-Home who became PM.

    FTFY...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    We ought to go back to the CON leadership rules that were in place in 1963 when I placed my first ever political bet. There was no member voting and there was no formal voting o MPs. A new leader just "emerged" Alec Douglas-Home who became PM

    Did you bet on him?
    No. I went for Christopher Soames. At the time I was only 17 and walked into the bookies in my school blazer
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    ERG need to split Raab's 30 votes as follows:

    Javid 17, Gove 9, Hunt 4

    That would get Javid, Gove and Hunt all to 50.

    Would then be very tough for Stewart - he would need a lot of switchers to survive.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,497
    kle4 said:


    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    I know the main news is Rory, but Gove actually did pretty well increasing his vote and slightly closing the gap with Hunt. He could have done much worse and even have been knocked out.

    Yes this was a good result for Boris and Gove, a great result for Stewart, a bad result for Hunt and Raab and a so so result for Javid
    I know The Saj only just squeaked in, but he rose more than Gove and Hunt, and is surely in a better position for even a few Raab transfers than Stewart, it seems a reasonable result.
    Yes I think either Javid or Rory go out tomorrow or both.

    Most Raab votes will go to Boris with a few to Gove so if Javid can pick up a few from Raab nd makes some hard Brexity noises tonight he could knock out Rory as no Raab voters likely go to Stewart unless Hunt or Gove start leaking backers to Rory
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,049
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    yup

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1141031917204246529

    But Stewart might beat Gove.
    Stewart will pick up 0 Raab votes, Gove as the last non Boris Leaver left may pick up some Raab votes.

    Gove gained more MPs than Hunt did today too
    Yes, is Hunt in trouble (of getting second that is)? He's the physical embodiment of the concept of 'meh' as far as I can see, no enthusiasm behind him at all. I like an appeal to dull competence, but even if he has that it is not waht they want.
    Hunt now looks Portillo 2001 to me
    Yep.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,839
    isam said:

    Wow has anyone seen the footage of Angela Merkel shaking in Berlin today?

    https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1140983038555410432

    Well done Mrs M! Can't imagine our soon to be PM acting with such stoicism.
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