politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that turnout is down markedly
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One LD gain, one CON gain, one UKIP gain.
All from LAB. Hey ho.0 -
ThanksAndyJS said:> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> BBC just said Lab lost a seat to Con?
In Sunderland.0 -
Oh no, gonna have to stay up all night. Popcorn time!0
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Greens might have a Sunderland gain - recount0
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Mill field !!0
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It would appear the voters of Sunderland aren't especially worried about their Nissan factory.0
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> @Gallowgate said:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124082540623560704
Those Brexiteers again....0 -
Labour have lost a seat to each of the Tories, LDs, Greens and UKIP in Sunderland.0
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Another Lib Dem gain in Sunderland. Labour are all over the show here. But what does it mean regarding their ref stance? Lib Dems are federalists!0
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> @KentRising said:
> What's the "scandal" for Labour in Sunderland?
They've tried to bollocks Brexit.....0 -
Lots of Jews in Sunderland ?
Labour getting a fisting.0 -
FFS. I thought I was going to get an early night.
Also I didn't get any booze in.1 -
I think this might have a part to play:MarqueeMark said:> @KentRising said:
> What's the "scandal" for Labour in Sunderland?
They've tried to bollocks Brexit.....
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1124076786269216768?s=210 -
Labour scandal in Sunderland
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/paul-middleton-paedophile-sting-avoids-156603920 -
the second LD gain was a given. They won by a landslide also last year in that ward
> @KentRising said:
> Another Lib Dem gain in Sunderland. Labour are all over the show here. But what does it mean regarding their ref stance? Lib Dems are federalists!0 -
1
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> @Foxy said:
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > It would appear the voters of Sunderland aren't especially worried about their Nissan factory.
>
> Some seem more bothered than others.
Same for Swindon though, despite Honda?
https://twitter.com/kevina364/status/1124082477038018561
The Brexiteers are VERY Brexity.0 -
Probably true, and they have a high position to fall from there, as Tories do elsewhere. Still, always nice to start the night off with some massive swings or shock results.The_Apocalypse said:
According to Stephen Bush, Labour are expected to do worse in Sunderland because there is a lot of issues with the council there.Thayer5 said:0 -
BBC report con gain from lab in a ward in Swindon never held by the blues0
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> @El_Capitano said:
> FFS. I thought I was going to get an early night.
>
> Also I didn't get any booze in.
Cheese, biscuits and an attack on the liquor cupboard, it is election night on PB!0 -
> @kle4 said:
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > I love the smell of fear in the early hours.....
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> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1124079140754395144
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> > Maybe, but Sunderland results really are not always a great predictor, so excuse or not it might be right.
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> >
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> > UKIP, either for themselves or because BP are not there, surprising given their showing last year though.
>
>
>
> Remember: Sunderland was a great predictor for the Brexit referendum......
>
> True enough, I guess we need to see some results in the Tory shires to see if Sunderland is reflective of things yet.
It looks like the Tories will be put to the sword in Cotswold (remain) while doing well in neighbouring Swindon (leave) where they've just gained one.0 -
The true political wonk gets drunk on election results alone, sir.El_Capitano said:FFS. I thought I was going to get an early night.
Also I didn't get any booze in.0 -
> @El_Capitano said:
> FFS. I thought I was going to get an early night.
>
> Also I didn't get any booze in.
Or popcorn....0 -
South Tyneside - Harton
Lab 1014
UKIP 719
Con 462
Cleadon Park
Lab 714
Greesn 499
Con 4120 -
Swindon is determined to make me look silly, I told plenty of people at the office I expected Labour to make gains there.Thayer5 said:0 -
> @Thayer5 said:
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Thayer5 said:
> > > It would appear the voters of Sunderland aren't especially worried about their Nissan factory.
> >
> > Some seem more bothered than others.
>
> Same for Swindon though, despite Honda?
>
> https://twitter.com/kevina364/status/1124082477038018561
>
> The Brexiteers are VERY Brexity.
Never held by con before0 -
Swindon was only marginally leave I would have thought, given Wiltshire as a whole was 52:48.Sean_F said:> @kle4 said:
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > I love the smell of fear in the early hours.....
>
> >
>
> >
>
>
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
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> > Maybe, but Sunderland results really are not always a great predictor, so excuse or not it might be right.
>
> >
>
> > UKIP, either for themselves or because BP are not there, surprising given their showing last year though.
>
>
>
> Remember: Sunderland was a great predictor for the Brexit referendum......
>
> True enough, I guess we need to see some results in the Tory shires to see if Sunderland is reflective of things yet.
It looks like the Tories will be put to the sword in Cotswold (remain) while doing well in neighbouring Swindon (leave) where they've just gained one.0 -
Interesting given https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-48036203 on this ward:Thayer5 said:
"A Labour local election candidate has apologised for sharing Facebook posts describing links with her party to anti-Semitism as a 'smear campaign'."0 -
Here’s another result from Swindon: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124078783835848708?s=21kle4 said:
Swindon is determined to make me look silly, I told plenty of people at the office I expected Labour to make gains there.Thayer5 said:
I guess time will tell how it goes for Labour there.0 -
This is the most interesting local elections in a while.0
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I think @El_Capitano meant "boos" when results don't go the way he wanted?kle4 said:
The true political wonk gets drunk on election results alone, sir.El_Capitano said:FFS. I thought I was going to get an early night.
Also I didn't get any booze in.1 -
> @dyedwoolie said:
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @Thayer5 said:
> > > > It would appear the voters of Sunderland aren't especially worried about their Nissan factory.
> > >
> > > Some seem more bothered than others.
> >
> > Same for Swindon though, despite Honda?
> >
> > https://twitter.com/kevina364/status/1124082477038018561
> >
> > The Brexiteers are VERY Brexity.
>
> Never held by con before
Lab councillor went Indy and split the vote according to the BBC0 -
And with beautiful timing, my iTunes has just cued up the right bit of Duruflé's Requiem:
"Dies iræ, dies illa". Or in the English paraphrase, "Day of wrath and doom impending"...0 -
> @rottenborough said:
> Yep, panic setting in:
>
> https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1124082593618649088
>
>
He is an idiot- get out of your self congratulatory Twitter left wing m3dia bubble and see what the rest of the world is like0 -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/gavin-williamson-allies-reveal-evidence-confronted-theresa-may/
Claim by Williamson that the only evidence against him is the fact of his 11 minute call to the telegraph.0 -
Barry Gardner waffling about nothing on the BBC...0
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> @kle4 said:
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @kle4 said:
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> >
>
> > > I love the smell of fear in the early hours.....
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> >
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> > >
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> > > https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1124079140754395144
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> > > Maybe, but Sunderland results really are not always a great predictor, so excuse or not it might be right.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > UKIP, either for themselves or because BP are not there, surprising given their showing last year though.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Remember: Sunderland was a great predictor for the Brexit referendum......
>
> >
>
> > True enough, I guess we need to see some results in the Tory shires to see if Sunderland is reflective of things yet.
>
>
>
> It looks like the Tories will be put to the sword in Cotswold (remain) while doing well in neighbouring Swindon (leave) where they've just gained one.
>
> Swindon was only marginally leave I would have thought, given Wiltshire as a whole was 52:48.
Swindon and Wiltshire are separate councils.0 -
So far an intriguingly bad night for Labour, an unexpectedly meh night for the Tories, a rather good night for the LDs.... and I can hear Nigel Farage chortling as I type.0
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Is that the good ship May I see, sailing serenely on?
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Re Huawei. Best, closest pronunciation is Whah (Scots wh sound) way as in a street. Quote function crashing my site on IPad quicker than the Labour vote in Sunderland.0
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Oh right, that was the one who claimed the Lab party punished her for not helping out with canvassing or something when she had a broken armFoxy said:> @dyedwoolie said:
> > @Thayer5 said:
> > > @Foxy said:
> > > > @Thayer5 said:
> > > > It would appear the voters of Sunderland aren't especially worried about their Nissan factory.
> > >
> > > Some seem more bothered than others.
> >
> > Same for Swindon though, despite Honda?
> >
> >
> >
> > The Brexiteers are VERY Brexity.
>
> Never held by con before
Lab councillor went Indy and split the vote according to the BBC0 -
> @El_Capitano said:
> And with beautiful timing, my iTunes has just cued up the right bit of Duruflé's Requiem:
>
> "Dies iræ, dies illa". Or in the English paraphrase, "Day of wrath and doom impending"...
The 7th best Requiem ever composed.0 -
What else is new?GIN1138 said:Barry Gardner waffling about nothing on the BBC...
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> @kle4 said:
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @kle4 said:
>
> >
>
> > > I love the smell of fear in the early hours.....
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1124079140754395144
>
>
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> >
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> >
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> >
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> > >
>
> >
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> > >
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> >
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> > >
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> >
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> > > Maybe, but Sunderland results really are not always a great predictor, so excuse or not it might be right.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > UKIP, either for themselves or because BP are not there, surprising given their showing last year though.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Remember: Sunderland was a great predictor for the Brexit referendum......
>
> >
>
> > True enough, I guess we need to see some results in the Tory shires to see if Sunderland is reflective of things yet.
>
>
>
> It looks like the Tories will be put to the sword in Cotswold (remain) while doing well in neighbouring Swindon (leave) where they've just gained one.
>
> Swindon was only marginally leave I would have thought, given Wiltshire as a whole was 52:48.
I have family in Swindon, the rest of Wiltshire can be posh and wealthy, I would expect them to be remain. Which means Swindon would be heavily leave.
22 round the table at Xmas. 22 leavers in Swindon.
Edit: minus the kids 15 leavers.0 -
I am well aware - I had thought the county of Wiltshire was 52:48 though, when the two councils' votes were combined.another_richard said:> @kle4 said:
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @kle4 said:
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> >
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> > > I love the smell of fear in the early hours.....
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> > >
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> > >
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> >
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> > > Maybe, but Sunderland results really are not always a great predictor, so excuse or not it might be right.
>
> >
>
> > >
>
> >
>
> > > UKIP, either for themselves or because BP are not there, surprising given their showing last year though.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Remember: Sunderland was a great predictor for the Brexit referendum......
>
> >
>
> > True enough, I guess we need to see some results in the Tory shires to see if Sunderland is reflective of things yet.
>
>
>
> It looks like the Tories will be put to the sword in Cotswold (remain) while doing well in neighbouring Swindon (leave) where they've just gained one.
>
> Swindon was only marginally leave I would have thought, given Wiltshire as a whole was 52:48.
Swindon and Wiltshire are separate councils.0 -
Greens gained Washington South from Labour by 3 votes.
https://twitter.com/JHarrisonLDR/status/11240848255713853500 -
> @El_Capitano said:
> And with beautiful timing, my iTunes has just cued up the right bit of Duruflé's Requiem:
>
> "Dies iræ, dies illa". Or in the English paraphrase, "Day of wrath and doom impending"... <
_____
I love Durufle's Requiem! The way it slowly emerges into beautiful noise, like something appearing from a mist. Just beautiful. Better than Faure, I think0 -
Very useful. thank youCarlottaVance said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGAqvpYLiGwviewcode said:
I have tried "Howay". Unfortunately I was down south and I got blank looks...Thayer5 said:@viewcode said:
> Any discussion of Huawei must first attempt to answer the most important, most crucial point: how do you pronounce "Huawei"? I've tried "Huw-awawwie", "Howawawaway", "Uuueeee" and "Hua-wey". <
____
Haddaway and shite?
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South Tyneside - West Park
Greens almost took West Park
Anne Mellanby Hetherington (Labour) 673
Thomas Alexander Mower (Green) 630
Margaret Mary Robson (Conservative) 358
The Green main target is another one...I guess they will take that easily0 -
Has anyone got a good link to track the Local Election results?
Thanks in advance0 -
> @Thayer5 said:
> > @Danny565 said:
> > > @Thayer5 said:
> > > So far an intriguingly bad night for Labour, an unexpectedly meh night for the Tories, a rather good night for the LDs.... and I can hear Nigel Farage chortling as I type.
> >
> > Are you SeanT?<
>
> ____
>
> You what? NO.
Your writing style just reminds me of his. 0 -
UKIP did stand!Danny565 said:
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> @kle4 said>
> I am well aware - I had thought the county of Wiltshire was 52:48 though, when the two councils' votes were combined.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#South_West_England_(including_Gibraltar)0 -
Winning on 24.9% of the vote. FPTP, you're a star.AndyJS said:Greens gained Washington South from Labour by 3 votes.
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Many people chortle thesedaysDanny565 said:> @Thayer5 said:
> > @Danny565 said:
> > > @Thayer5 said:
> > > So far an intriguingly bad night for Labour, an unexpectedly meh night for the Tories, a rather good night for the LDs.... and I can hear Nigel Farage chortling as I type.
> >
> > Are you SeanT?<
>
> ____
>
> You what? NO.
Your writing style just reminds me of his.
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Thanks. So I was confusing the unitary area result with the combined Wiltshire result. Swindon only slightly more leavey though.another_richard said:> @kle4 said>
> I am well aware - I had thought the county of Wiltshire was 52:48 though, when the two councils' votes were combined.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#South_West_England_(including_Gibraltar)0 -
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Absolutely. Of 20th century requiems, Duruflé for beauty, Howells for heart-wrenching pain.Thayer5 said:I love Durufle's Requiem! The way it slowly emerges into beautiful noise, like something appearing from a mist. Just beautiful. Better than Faure, I think
(And if we're on choral music while we wait for the results to roll in, Yves Castagnet's Messe Salve Regina is utterly fabulous. Modern - well, early 2000s - but timeless in the way that Duruflé was, and the Notre Dame connection is particularly relevant at present.)0 -
A lot of Tories probably expecting to mirror many of these Labour results - big drops but the majorities so large they still make it through.0
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Lab down 12% in first Newcastle ward declared0
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> @Gallowgate said:
>
> You what? NO.
>
> You sound like Gavin Williamson.<
______
That is less complimentary. He's an idiot. Sabre rattling the Chinese with our aircraft carrier. Help.0 -
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124086864879788040?s=21
Labour down also in working class area of Newcastle. Previous election was only last year.0 -
He can’t be SeanT as he’ll have already told us tales of his latest conquests.0
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"only"Ishmael_Z said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/gavin-williamson-allies-reveal-evidence-confronted-theresa-may/
Claim by Williamson that the only evidence against him is the fact of his 11 minute call to the telegraph.
To the journalist that broke the story the following day.
If you were PM, would you have confidence in such a minister?0 -
Unless these results are REALLY untypical of the whole picture, people really are crazy to think Labour should/will become even more anti-Brexit than they already are0
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> @kle4 said:
> Winning on 24.9% of the vote. FPTP, you're a star.
Could be worse...
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/11240843843263529050 -
> @CarlottaVance said:
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/gavin-williamson-allies-reveal-evidence-confronted-theresa-may/
>
>
>
> Claim by Williamson that the only evidence against him is the fact of his 11 minute call to the telegraph.
>
> "only"
>
> To the journalist that broke the story the following day.
>
> If you were PM, would you have confidence in such a minister?
Did Williamson say what the 11 minutes conversation was about ?0 -
Quite. Enough evidence for a conviction is not the barrier.CarlottaVance said:
"only"Ishmael_Z said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/gavin-williamson-allies-reveal-evidence-confronted-theresa-may/
Claim by Williamson that the only evidence against him is the fact of his 11 minute call to the telegraph.
To the journalist that broke the story the following day.
If you were PM, would you have confidence in such a minister?0 -
> @Thayer5 said:
> @Danny565 said:
>
> > > You what? NO.
> >
> > Your writing style just reminds me of his. <
>
> _______
>
> I take that as a mild compliment. I lurked for a longtime. He was entertaining - but far too angry and Brexity for me.
SeanT too Brexity? Depends which hour of the day you caught him.....0 -
Labour massacre in Sunderland continues
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124087689198936067?s=210 -
> @Gallowgate said:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124086864879788040
>
>
>
> Labour down also in working class area of Newcastle. Previous election was only last year.
The problem of sitting on the fence is that you lose votes to both sides.0 -
Green gain Beacon & Bents in South Tyneside.
Expected given how close they were in the other ward earlier0 -
Turnout felt high in my Surrey (Waverley Binscombe) ward. The Labour promise turned out at General election levels (70-80%) but there were lots of Tories too - the polling station was bust all day without interruption. I genuinely have no idea what to expect. The returning officer claimed it was illegal to tell us the total turnout figure - something that's news to me, can anyone confirm this view?
But as I reported earlier, I expect the LibDems to be the obvious winners overall, without a real Tory meltdown.0 -
> @another_richard said:
> > @CarlottaVance said:
> > https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/gavin-williamson-allies-reveal-evidence-confronted-theresa-may/
> >
> >
> >
> > Claim by Williamson that the only evidence against him is the fact of his 11 minute call to the telegraph.
> >
> > "only"
> >
> > To the journalist that broke the story the following day.
> >
> > If you were PM, would you have confidence in such a minister?
>
> Did Williamson say what the 11 minutes conversation was about ?
Claimed it was about the Euros. Perhaps GCHQ could tell us more.0 -
The BBC elections ticker has suddenly announced council holds for Broxbourne (Con), Wigan (Lab), South Tyneside (Lab), Havant (Con). Err... why?
Also, WTF GREENS GAIN BIRKENHEAD0 -
The Greens 4 up already.0
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Looking like a good night for Greens.0
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Labour losing yet more seats in Sunders to UKIP, and in the Wirral to the Greens. Lol.
Lovely stuff.1 -
Some spectacular results for the Greens.0
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Is it me or are they getting better at local stuff generally? They had 5x the candidates in Wiltshire in 2017 compared to 2013. Ok they did not win any, but as a sign of organisation it seemed notable at the time.rottenborough said:Looking like a good night for Greens.
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> @Tissue_Price said:
> > @kle4 said:
> > Winning on 24.9% of the vote. FPTP, you're a star.
>
> Could be worse...
> https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1124084384326352905
Localist votes for local people. Or not.0 -
Only 216 spoilt papers so far in Sunderland, not a huge number.0
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> @El_Capitano said:
> The BBC elections ticker has suddenly announced council holds for Broxbourne (Con), Wigan (Lab), South Tyneside (Lab), Havant (Con). Err... why?
>
> Also, WTF GREENS GAIN BIRKENHEAD
Will Bootle fall?0 -
Labour seat losses already in double figures0
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2 thoughtsTissue_Price said:> @kle4 said:
> Winning on 24.9% of the vote. FPTP, you're a star.
Could be worse...
Spennymore is a great ward name
What on earth is up with all those Inds?0 -
None of the Above vote, not necessarily remain, especially if there’s no Kippers.Foxy said:> @Danny565 said:
> Unless these results are REALLY untypical of the whole picture, people really are crazy to think Labour should/will become even more anti-Brexit than they already are
Losing lots of votes to the Greens where they are standing.0
This discussion has been closed.