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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that turnout is down markedly

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @ralphmalph said:
    > Labour lose control of Hartlepool.

    Well, it will confirm Roger's prejudices about the monkey-hangers.....
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,618
    Bloxwich East (Walsall)
    LABOUR 975
    CONSERVATIVE 1102
    Con gain.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Thayer5 said:

    LABOUR LOSE HARTLEPOOL



    I really did not expect that to be the first headline of the night.

    Roger will be devastated....
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @kle4 said:
    > > https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1124089794701799425
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > Tories would be ecstatic withthat I imagine.
    >
    > Beyond ecstatic - for a governing party to be ahead two years after the GE would be remarkable.
    >
    > Especially given the mess the government is in.

    If those figures are right, it'd be a net gain for Con against 2011 (I don't know the effect of boundary changes but it *probably* wouldn't be big enough to swing it, I'd think).
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    edited May 2019
    > @Thayer5 said:
    > LABOUR LOSE HARTLEPOOL
    >
    > I really did not expect that to be the first headline of the night.

    Labour lose five, independents are the winners there +4, UKIP +1.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,880
    Lib Dems very upbeat about Vale of the White Horse.
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    Thayer5Thayer5 Posts: 97
    edited May 2019
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > Radio 5 live have been banging on about climate change every single day in the crucial 8:30 odd commute to work spot. Wonder if it has helped the greens ?
    > Greta Thrunberg the big winner from tonight ? <

    _____

    If I was a leftwing Remainer with a conscience (rather than a centre righty) then I would go Green. Who could vote for that ghastly anti-Semite, Corbyn?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Wulfrun_Phil said:
    > Bloxwich East (Walsall)
    > LABOUR 975
    > CONSERVATIVE 1102
    > Con gain.

    The area which had the lowest number of signatures on the Second Referendum petition.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited May 2019
    > @Danny565 said:
    > in my experience, people (Remain voters and Leave voters) are mostly hacked off at him being too dogmatically anti-Brexit, and point-blank refusing to vote through anything the Tories propose on Brexit

    What experience is this that you're having where you're finding all these Remain voters who think Corbyn is too dogmatically anti-Brexit?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,004
    > @AndreaParma_82 said:
    > Con gain Hulton from Labour in Bolton
    >
    > Bolton council is quite unpopular. They were losing by-elections in huge swings in recent months

    Quite unpopular is putting it mildly. Compared to Wigan they are w..k. I grew up on the border.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    edited May 2019
    It's gone worse for Labour and the Tories during the news.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    > @david_herdson said:
    > > @another_richard said:
    > > > @kle4 said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1124089794701799425
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Tories would be ecstatic withthat I imagine.
    > >
    > > Beyond ecstatic - for a governing party to be ahead two years after the GE would be remarkable.
    > >
    > > Especially given the mess the government is in.
    >
    > If those figures are right, it'd be a net gain for Con against 2011 (I don't know the effect of boundary changes but it *probably* wouldn't be big enough to swing it, I'd think).

    It would be a net gain against 2007.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,715
    Also seeing the Wirral results. As a born and bred Wallasey lad, I'm shocked Labour are getting such a kicking over there.
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    M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    Conservatives have just lost about 15 seats according to the beeb tracker
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    Thayer5 said:

    > @Pulpstar said:

    > Radio 5 live have been banging on about climate change every single day in the crucial 8:30 odd commute to work spot. Wonder if it has helped the greens ?

    > Greta Thrunberg the big winner from tonight ? <



    _____



    If I was a leftwing Remainer with a conscience (rather than a centre righty) then I would go Green. Who could vote for that ghastly anti-Semite, Corbyn?

    Millions of people.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @KentRising said:
    > > @ralphmalph said:
    > > Labour lose control of Hartlepool.
    >
    > Labour are getting fisted tonight. I'm breaking out the vanilla Oreos.

    Ooh, you sod!
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    South Tyneside have finished

    Lab 14 wards

    Ind 4

    Greesn 1
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2019
    > @edmundintokyo said:
    > > @Danny565 said:
    > > in my experience, people (Remain voters and Leave voters) are mostly hacked off at him being too dogmatically anti-Brexit, and point-blank refusing to vote through anything the Tories propose on Brexit
    >
    > What experience is this that you're having where you're finding all these Remain voters who think Corbyn is too dogmatically anti-Brexit?

    People I work with, who think he's being childish by just saying "no" to everything the Tories propose.

    And the aforementioned YouGov polling suggests that my experience is more typical than some Twitter commentators' experience.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    I love nights like this, it feels a bit like referendum night.
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    Thayer5Thayer5 Posts: 97
    I am feeling sorry for Barry Gardiner. He's one of the few Labour front benchers I like. Maybe the only one.

    He's doing the best he can on the BBC, but given the results, eeesh.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour gain Kew in Sefton

    I don't know from who

    CON: 454
    GREEN: 212
    LAB: 1124
    LIB DEM: 791
    UKIP: 446
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Independents on 36 - up 22 (BBC).

    Good night not to have a blue or red rosette?
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,880

    Labour gain Kew in Sefton



    I don't know from who



    CON: 454

    GREEN: 212

    LAB: 1124

    LIB DEM: 791

    UKIP: 446

    From Lib Dem.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    > @another_richard said:
    > > @david_herdson said:
    > > > @another_richard said:
    > > > > @kle4 said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/1124089794701799425
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Tories would be ecstatic withthat I imagine.
    > > >
    > > > Beyond ecstatic - for a governing party to be ahead two years after the GE would be remarkable.
    > > >
    > > > Especially given the mess the government is in.
    > >
    > > If those figures are right, it'd be a net gain for Con against 2011 (I don't know the effect of boundary changes but it *probably* wouldn't be big enough to swing it, I'd think).
    >
    > It would be a net gain against 2007.

    As the Tories made a net gain in 2011 too, yes.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Don't they always relatively poor in locals there? Con usually won Wirral constituencies in the locals raising interests in the parliamentary seats and then Labour hold them in high turnout

    > @TheValiant said:
    > Also seeing the Wirral results. As a born and bred Wallasey lad, I'm shocked Labour are getting such a kicking over there.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Seems like if the Tories just stick with TMay and TMay just sticks with delaying brexit while she makes endless futile attempts to pass her deal they could easily hang onto power until 2027.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    I predict whatever happens the bulk of lab MPs will say it shows the need to come out clearly for remain, and bulk oftory MPs say it shows they need to stop trying to deal with Corbyn. Shocking I know.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    thanks

    > @El_Capitano said:
    > Labour gain Kew in Sefton
    >
    >
    >
    > I don't know from who
    >
    >
    >
    > CON: 454
    >
    > GREEN: 212
    >
    > LAB: 1124
    >
    > LIB DEM: 791
    >
    > UKIP: 446
    >
    > From Lib Dem.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    > @AndreaParma_82 said:
    > Labour gain Kew in Sefton
    >
    > I don't know from who
    >
    > CON: 454
    > GREEN: 212
    > LAB: 1124
    > LIB DEM: 791
    > UKIP: 446

    From the LibDems.

    Its in formerly LibDem Southport constituency.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,367
    > @AndreaParma_82 said:
    > Labour gain Kew in Sefton
    >
    > I don't know from who
    >
    > CON: 454
    > GREEN: 212
    > LAB: 1124
    > LIB DEM: 791
    > UKIP: 446

    Seems to be a split Lab/Lib ward, with a UKIP history:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kew_(Sefton_ward)
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,715
    AndyJS said:

    > @TheValiant said:

    > I know few care in a Bootle ward, but looking at my result:

    >

    > Labour significantly down - drops below 50% which is the first time since 2014.

    > Turnout not really down on last year. 32% from 34%.

    > Conservatives go (slightly) backwards too. Lib Dems and Green are the biggest winners here.

    >

    > Victoria was a fairly solid Lib Dem ward throughout the 1990s to 2010s.

    >

    > So, here, I'd say neither Con nor Lab have anything to cheer about, especially not Labour.

    > Lib Dems and Greens both making progress.

    > Turnout is NOT significantly down.



    I don't know how the Tories could go any lower in Bootle.

    The Conservatives (nationally) came 2nd in 2017 GE in Bootle. Just that it's not hard to come 2nd. You need to remember to vote for yourself, and get ONE other person to do so and you come second.
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    Thayer5Thayer5 Posts: 97
    Labour are DOWN 7%, nationally

    Extraordinary.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Total number of spoilt papers in Sunderland = 300 with all the results in.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,374
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124097945694089218

    Think I may die laughing over Seamus and Jezza's brilliant tactics.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour's problem is that they don't have London, Birmingham, Scotland and Wales to come to their rescue tonight. Particularly London.
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    M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    Lots of bad Tory results starting to come in,

    Predicting labour to be about 50 down
    Tory down 600
    Lib Dems up 500
    Greens up 100

    When all is done
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,374
    Green vote well up says Curtice.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Total number of spoilt papers in Sunderland = 300 with all the results in.

    If Twitter's anything to go by many will have had 'Brexit Party' written across them.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,374
    Time for a Labour leadership challenge?
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    Thayer5Thayer5 Posts: 97
    edited May 2019
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Labour's problem is that they don't have London, Birmingham, Scotland and Wales to come to their rescue tonight. Particularly London.<

    _______

    Labour no longer have Scotland. Which is one massive issue for them, that they seem unable to resolve.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,880
    Jo Swinson saying with great relish that JRM is going to have a Lib Dem district councillor!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    edited May 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Labour's problem is that they don't have London, Birmingham, Scotland and Wales to come to their rescue tonight. Particularly London.

    So long as the story leads on big Tory losses they won’t mind too much. So it comes down to how much can the LDs hit con in the shires.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Seems like Lab are losing Brexit-motivted voters to LD/Greens, but Cons aren't the other way….. cos no Brexit party around to take them.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,903
    This is looking like a terrible night for Labour...
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Labour lise wirral to noc
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    LD. gain Childwall and Woolton in Liverpool. Both were won by LD also in 2018. The majority in Childwall looks bigger now
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    > @Thayer5 said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > Labour's problem is that they don't have London, Birmingham, Scotland and Wales to come to their rescue tonight. Particularly London.<
    >
    > _______
    >
    > Labour no longer have Scotland. Which is one massive issue for them, that they seem unable to resolve.

    Indeed Labour lost the one by-election in Scotland tonight to the SNP
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    For Britain wins a seat in Hartlepool.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    9.5% swing lab to con in wirral
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > This is looking like a terrible night for Labour...

    oh well, never mind
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,091
    Saltire said:

    > @Thayer5 said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    > > Labour's problem is that they don't have London, Birmingham, Scotland and Wales to come to their rescue tonight. Particularly London.<

    >

    > _______

    >

    > Labour no longer have Scotland. Which is one massive issue for them, that they seem unable to resolve.



    Indeed Labour lost the one by-election in Scotland tonight to the SNP

    @justin124 assures me the Lab surge in Scotland will happen any day now.
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    Thayer5Thayer5 Posts: 97
    So Labour getting totally waxed in the North, the Tories doing poorly in the south (but not as poorly as expected)?
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Interesting results so far. Hilarious in some cases.

    Based on which I suspect it's now safe to say there won't be a GE this year. Can't see Labour MPs being mad enough to vote for one, Tories clearly won't. So there won't be one.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Lab hold Greenbank in Liverpool which was won by Greens in 2018
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,999
    > @KentRising said:
    > For Britain wins a seat in Hartlepool.

    For Britain indeed
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @rottenborough said:
    > https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1124097945694089218
    >
    > Think I may die laughing over Seamus and Jezza's brilliant tactics.

    The anti semite marxists deserve a monstering
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Saltire said:

    > @Thayer5 said:

    > > @AndyJS said:

    > > Labour's problem is that they don't have London, Birmingham, Scotland and Wales to come to their rescue tonight. Particularly London.<

    >

    > _______

    >

    > Labour no longer have Scotland. Which is one massive issue for them, that they seem unable to resolve.



    Indeed Labour lost the one by-election in Scotland tonight to the SNP

    @justin124 assures me the Lab surge in Scotland will happen any day now.
    Do we need a SLAB surge klaxon?
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    Thayer5Thayer5 Posts: 97
    Brits really don't want Corbynite Marxism. When will Labour realise this, AND do something about it?

    They should be hoovering up 1000s of councillors, instead they are LOSING.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Goodness me this deputy UKIP leader is a nasty piece of work
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    > @Thayer5 said:
    > So Labour getting totally waxed in the North, the Tories doing poorly in the south (but not as poorly as expected)?

    Yet another election which further cements Labour as the party of the affluent south. Oh the irony.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,715

    Labour gain Kew in Sefton



    I don't know from who



    CON: 454

    GREEN: 212

    LAB: 1124

    LIB DEM: 791

    UKIP: 446

    From Lib Dems (2015 result).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,015
    The really bad results for the Tories to be counted tomorrow?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    The irony of this is that the original argument for Corbynism was that centrist Labour was facing an existential threat from the Greens or other left-wing parties that would offer progressive voters something they could believe in, but Corbyn's ended up serving up their vote on a plate because he couldn't resist his inner tankie.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    edited May 2019
    BBC KEY WARDS - change since 2015:

    Lab -7
    Con -1
    LD +7
    UKIP - 5
    Green +4

    Astonishing - Swing 3% LAB TO CON since 2015 (when Con won majority at GE!)
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,880

    Yet another election which further cements Labour as the party of the affluent south. Oh the irony.

    Let's wait until the southern shires have declared before concluding that!
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2019
    Basildon

    Con 20/-3 seats

    Lab 15/+2

    UKIP 1/-2

    Ind 6/+3

    NOC gain
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Final result in Newcastle just declared in Parklands. Overall results:

    https://democracy.newcastle.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=9&AC=EDIT_ELECTION&RPID=6225636

    Popular vote:

    Lab 38%
    LD 23%
    Con 11%
    Greens 9%
    Ind 6%
    UKIP 6%
    Newcastle First 4%
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @kle4 said:
    > The really bad results for the Tories to be counted tomorrow?

    Only 124 of 348 councils are counting tonight, so anything could happen tomorrow.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,374

    The irony of this is that the original argument for Corbynism was that centrist Labour was facing an existential threat from the Greens or other left-wing parties that would offer progressive voters something they could believe in, but Corbyn's ended up serving up their vote on a plate because he couldn't resist his inner tankie.

    I wonder whether Labour had wind of this in the last couple of days? Jezza and co have spent a lot of time on climate change policy since beginning of week.

    Not enough. Jezza's obvious blocking of a 2nd vote may well do for him.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour HOLD Cressington

    CON: 211
    GREEN: 514
    LAB: 1,896
    LD: 1,826

    The Lab candidate is under investigation for anti-semite comments on social media. Huge swing against him. But he survived
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Thayer5 said:
    > So Labour getting totally waxed in the North, the Tories doing poorly in the south (but not as poorly as expected)?

    The Tories are losing seats to the LDs in the south, but I don't think we know yet what's happening in the south in Con/Lab battles. Basildon the only one so far.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    The Veterans & People's Party wins a seat in Hartlepool. Quite a mix there now. Labour lose control.
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    The results in Brentwood are startling considering it is Leave area - Lib Dem vote up 22%!
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,374
    As Nick Cohen has pointed out there is a well motivated pro-eu radical movement building and they are looking for a decent home.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    > @Thayer5 said:
    > Brits really don't want Corbynite Marxism. When will Labour realise this, AND do something about it?

    I'm not sure Marxism is the right word but optimistically, June 2022.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,880
    Wow. Barry Gardiner is actually laughing in his response to the Sunderland Labour leader who's blaming the national party for his losses. Tact not your strong point, Barry. Though to be fair I'm not quite sure what your strong point might be.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    new thread.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited May 2019
    <b>New thread</b>
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Tory vote seems to be holding up, or increasing vs Labour, in the seats I've seen declared in Bury MBC where I live. LDs just stolen a seat off Labour 1900 to 1000 - was Lab majority of 50 before. No other changes yet.
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    SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    Unsurprisingly my once iconicly Tory council has been lost to NOC. At least the ward where I live is still Tory, but probably only because we weren't voting today...
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    DoubleDDoubleD Posts: 63
    Tonight proves that if Tories had a, er, real Tory leader, they would whop Labour. Blonde bombshell, step forward.
This discussion has been closed.