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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that turnout is down markedly
Earlier this evening I tweeted to ask is people had any sense of what turnout has been like in the locals. My feeling from telling in Bedford is that it is down by quite a bit.
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> first past the post!
Blast, pipped at the post again! As normal in Leics.
> People have had it with Theresa May!
That is no doubt true, but also let's also not pretend that losing a lot of seats at this point in the local election and government cycle would be unusual, given how many they start with and how many years into government it is. Therefore as sick as people are with May, losing masses of seats is only partly to do with that.
> Three Rivers? That's a LD heartland isn't it?
The LibDems have 20 of the 39 Councillors, so it's as close to heartlands as the LibDems get.
I don't know the makeup of councillors up for election this time around.
I also have a feeling they will draw entirely the wrong conclusions from both experiences.
> > @GIN1138 said:
> > People have had it with Theresa May!
>
> That is no doubt true, but also let's also not pretend that losing a lot of seats at this point in the local election and government cycle would be unusual, given how many they start with and how many years into government it is. Therefore as sick as people are with May, losing masses of seats is only partly to do with that.
The Conservatives start with 60% of the seats nine years since they came to power. Brexit or No Brexit, it would be staggering if they didn't fall back somewhat.
> > @kle4 said:
> > Three Rivers? That's a LD heartland isn't it?
>
> The LibDems have 20 of the 39 Councillors, so it's as close to heartlands as the LibDems get.
>
> I don't know the makeup of councillors up for election this time around.
Pah, nothing compared to Eastleigh Borough Council then. 32 of 39, and I think that is low for them if memory serves
Ironically she might be the only one holding the Tory share of the vote up.
> I have a feeling the Conservatives won’t do as badly as expected in the local elections but will do much worse than expected in the European elections.
>
> I also have a feeling they will draw entirely the wrong conclusions from both experiences.
The right conclusion being to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and to get on with actually leaving the EU.
That would enable us to skip the EU elections and then have a sensible debate about our future relationship.
> I have a feeling the Conservatives won’t do as badly as expected in the local elections
Oh don't say that. I'm looking forward to a night of Con humiliation.
> I have a feeling the Conservatives won’t do as badly as expected in the local elections but will do much worse than expected in the European elections.
>
> I also have a feeling they will draw entirely the wrong conclusions from both experiences.
I expect they will lose hundreds in the locals, which menay will point to as the end of the world, but as you say it won't actually be as badly as expected or it could be. Given some EP polls have the Tories within a few percent of 6th place, it really could be disastrous.
The new minor parties aren't standing so the usual
suspects will mop up nearly all the seats and spin it
as a great victory for May, Corbyn or the other one.
> I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
In that case, this is not the website you are looking for!
> I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
Who do you normally vote for, if you don't mind me asking?
For me I'm really keen to see how the Lib Dems do here, when most of these seats were contested in 2011 they lost circa 750 seats, and lost a further 400 seats when they were re-contested in 2015.
> > @Cookie said:
> > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
>
> In that case, this is not the website you are looking for!
Ha ha - I'm not suddenly uninterested in politics! Just unenthusiastic about the fare on offer.
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Cookie said:
> > > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
> >
> > In that case, this is not the website you are looking for!
>
> Ha ha - I'm not suddenly uninterested in politics! Just unenthusiastic about the fare on offer.
Just teasing!
Anyone know the timetable of results? presumably most count tommorow.
I don’t see the Conservatives even begin to talk about that, or even their excellent economic record.
> At 6pm I asked the polling station staff what turnout had been like. They said it had been quite high. I asked them what percentage of people had voted? They said about 10%. That doesn't seem like a high percentage to me at 6pm, but maybe a lot of people have postal votes these days, which weren't included in the 10% figure.
PVs are excluded from any on-the-day turnout figure. PVs will be anything up to a quarter of the vote, so you can add a third to polling station turnout reports, as a rule of thumb.
Except in areas heavy with the retired or students, it is usually very hard to say much about turnout until the 6-8pm rush.
> People have had it with Theresa May!
>
> When I went canvassing recently the voters generally had a positive impression towards Mrs May.
>
> Ironically she might be the only one holding the Tory share of the vote up.
I think a lot of that has slipped now. I would have agreed with the sentiment about six weeks ago.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > I have a feeling the Conservatives won’t do as badly as expected in the local elections but will do much worse than expected in the European elections.
> >
> > I also have a feeling they will draw entirely the wrong conclusions from both experiences.
>
> I expect they will lose hundreds in the locals, which menay will point to as the end of the world, but as you say it won't actually be as badly as expected or it could be. Given some EP polls have the Tories within a few percent of 6th place, it really could be disastrous.
Back in 1996, the Conservatives came <b>third</b> in number of councillors, behind Labour and the LibDems. And in 1995, the Conservatives lost more than 2,000 councillors.
So, let's not read too much into the Conservatives *only* winning half the council seats up for election shall we.
> I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
Petulant and pointless, since whatever your view of the National situation, casting a vote to elect your local councillors carries as much (or as little) point as it always did.
> Quiet as the grave in rural West Devon.
And what about the election ?
> Won this ward last year by just short of 500 for the cons. This year looking a lot more narrow than that, third parties like UKIP, greens and independents have eaten away. You would be surprised how many Con to Green.
>
In very middle-class / university areas I'd expect an unusually high number of people willing to switch between the Conservatives and Greens.
> Turnout in London looks to be down close to 100% from last year.
>
> In Tower Hamlets it's up about 9000%
Joke's on you, brokenwheel, Tower Hamlets announced their results yesterday.
Many people when voting locally think “council tax” (which heavily favours the Tories) or “pavements” (which favours the Liberal Democrats) or “stop development” (which favour community action groups).
Labour get votes when they think “public services” but it’s a tad rarer for that to be a big driver in local elections (as opposed to general ones) unless the Tory council has had an absolute shocker.
What I don’t think they are thinking is “send a message about Brexit”, particularly when their council is a real thing and the meaningless thing where they can do that is only 3 weeks away.
> > @Cookie said:
> > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
>
>
> Petulant and pointless, since whatever your view of the National situation, casting a vote to elect your local councillors carries as much (or as little) point as it always did.
If the leaders of the main political parties react to local election results then this is not true, it is much harder to draw conclusions about the elections or how to respond them this year than generally in the past.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > I have a feeling the Conservatives won’t do as badly as expected in the local elections but will do much worse than expected in the European elections.
>
> >
>
> > I also have a feeling they will draw entirely the wrong conclusions from both experiences.
>
>
>
> The right conclusion being to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and to get on with actually leaving the EU.
>
>
>
> That would enable us to skip the EU elections and then have a sensible debate about our future relationship.
>
> Anyone “normal” I meet (i.e. no-one who posts on this site) is fed up with Brexit and talking about domestic issues that affect their everyday lives.
>
> I don’t see the Conservatives even begin to talk about that, or even their excellent economic record.
Me too. It’s why I think OGH might be right that BXT/UKIP will fall short of the sky high poll ratings. I meet a lot of people fed up with politics and wishing Brexit would go away one way or the other. But not many of the supposedly outraged who are apparently frothing for a no deal crashout.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @Cookie said:
> > > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
> >
> >
> > Petulant and pointless, since whatever your view of the National situation, casting a vote to elect your local councillors carries as much (or as little) point as it always did.
>
> If the leaders of the main political parties react to local election results then this is not true, it is much harder to draw conclusions about the elections or how to respond them this year than generally in the past.
The “point” of local elections is to choose your local councillors, and hence your local council. Analysis of what the results might mean for national politics is interesting, and perhaps somewhat relevant. But it is not “the point”.
> > @kle4 said:
>
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > > I have a feeling the Conservatives won’t do as badly as expected in the local elections but will do much worse than expected in the European elections.
>
> > >
>
> > > I also have a feeling they will draw entirely the wrong conclusions from both experiences.
>
> >
>
> > I expect they will lose hundreds in the locals, which menay will point to as the end of the world, but as you say it won't actually be as badly as expected or it could be. Given some EP polls have the Tories within a few percent of 6th place, it really could be disastrous.
>
>
>
> Back in 1996, the Conservatives came third in number of councillors, behind Labour and the LibDems. And in 1995, the Conservatives lost more than 2,000 councillors.
>
>
>
> So, let's not read too much into the Conservatives *only* winning half the council seats up for election shall we.
>
> I'm not. That and the euros will look very bad together though.
One feature of Corbynism (and before that the LibDem collapse shielding the Tories from electoral damage) is that we have all forgotten how badly governments are *supposed* to do in local elections.
> > @Cookie said:
> > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
>
> In that case, this is not the website you are looking for!
Perhaps he is here for TSE's fashion tips?
On reflection, probably not.
Wife hasn't voted. She made some feeble excuses about going to watch The Rocky Horror Picture Show at the Liverpool Empire theatre. (There's a joke there somewhere, but I'll let others decide what it is)
Mother and Father in Law (both 'donkey with red rosette voters') didn't know voting was going on. They *might* go down now. Not sure. They've never missed a vote previously.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
>
> > I have a feeling the Conservatives won’t do as badly as expected in the local elections but will do much worse than expected in the European elections.
>
> >
>
> > I also have a feeling they will draw entirely the wrong conclusions from both experiences.
>
>
>
> The right conclusion being to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and to get on with actually leaving the EU.
>
>
>
> That would enable us to skip the EU elections and then have a sensible debate about our future relationship.
>
> Anyone “normal” I meet (i.e. no-one who posts on this site) is fed up with Brexit and talking about domestic issues that affect their everyday lives.
>
> I don’t see the Conservatives even begin to talk about that, or even their excellent economic record.
Of course.
And the right thing to do is to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and get on with governing.
You can still have "WTO" Brexit post Withdrawal Agreement if you like, and you could still have "EEA" Brexit.
So everybody should be able to accept it. Only, the extreme Remainers see it as closing off Remaining (because it does). And the extreme Leavers see it as closing off WTO (because they see the parliamentary arithmetic as being against them, and see crash out as a cleansing of the British soul). And the Labour Party sees it as a chance to tear the Conservative Party apart (and f*ck the country, but hey, at least the hated Tories would get the blame.) And most of the things people say and write about the backstop simply aren't true.
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> >
> > > I have a feeling the Conservatives won’t do as badly as expected in the local elections but will do much worse than expected in the European elections.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > I also have a feeling they will draw entirely the wrong conclusions from both experiences.
> >
> >
> >
> > The right conclusion being to pass the Withdrawal Agreement and to get on with actually leaving the EU.
> >
> >
> >
> > That would enable us to skip the EU elections and then have a sensible debate about our future relationship.
> >
> > Anyone “normal” I meet (i.e. no-one who posts on this site) is fed up with Brexit and talking about domestic issues that affect their everyday lives.
> >
> > I don’t see the Conservatives even begin to talk about that, or even their excellent economic record.
>
> Me too. It’s why I think OGH might be right that BXT/UKIP will fall short of the sky high poll ratings. I meet a lot of people fed up with politics and wishing Brexit would go away one way or the other. But not many of the supposedly outraged who are apparently frothing for a no deal crashout.
I agree, but I also have never met anyone in real life who is furiously frothing for a second referendum.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @Cookie said:
> > > > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
> > >
> > >
> > > Petulant and pointless, since whatever your view of the National situation, casting a vote to elect your local councillors carries as much (or as little) point as it always did.
> >
> > If the leaders of the main political parties react to local election results then this is not true, it is much harder to draw conclusions about the elections or how to respond them this year than generally in the past.
>
> The “point” of local elections is to choose your local councillors, and hence your local council. Analysis of what the results might mean for national politics is interesting, and perhaps somewhat relevant. But it is not “the point”.
How many people are motivated to vote in local elections by local issues, though. Suspect not many.
Theresa: "Nothing has changed! I'm alright!"
> It may not be possible to judge turnout these days from polling station activity, due to the ever-increasing number of postal voters.
>
> Postal votes should be crossed off the roll, no?
Yep. They are here anyway.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759019/25_November_Agreement_on_the_withdrawal_of_the_United_Kingdom_of_Great_Britain_and_Northern_Ireland_from_the_European_Union_and_the_European_Atomic_Energy_Community.pdf
RECALLING the commitment of the United Kingdom to protect North-South cooperation and its guarantee of avoiding a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls, and bearing in mind that any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements
> It may not be possible to judge turnout these days from polling station activity, due to the ever-increasing number of postal voters.
>
> Postal votes should be crossed off the roll, no?
I'm not sure how they do it, because you'd think when someone asks them what turnout has been they'd include postal applications in the figure, but they don't seem to do so.
> > @brokenwheel said:
> > It may not be possible to judge turnout these days from polling station activity, due to the ever-increasing number of postal voters.
> >
> > Postal votes should be crossed off the roll, no?
>
> Yep. They are here anyway.
But when you ask a presiding officer about turnout, they look at the serial number of the ballot paper they are about to issue, which shows how many they have handed out already that day. That excludes postal voters.
No-one at a polling station is going to go through the registers and count up all the crossings off; that isn’t realistic.
> Apparently there was a queue in Cannock North this morning when they opened, and unusually (since I vote early in the day) I wasn't the only voter there.
I was the only one in the polling station when I voted and the polling station staff said unusually quiet today when I asked - even for local elections.
https://twitter.com/magawk/status/1124017593373868032?s=21
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @Cookie said:
> > > > > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Petulant and pointless, since whatever your view of the National situation, casting a vote to elect your local councillors carries as much (or as little) point as it always did.
> > >
> > > If the leaders of the main political parties react to local election results then this is not true, it is much harder to draw conclusions about the elections or how to respond them this year than generally in the past.
> >
> > The “point” of local elections is to choose your local councillors, and hence your local council. Analysis of what the results might mean for national politics is interesting, and perhaps somewhat relevant. But it is not “the point”.
>
> How many people are motivated to vote in local elections by local issues, though. Suspect not many.
>
Nevertheless, the OP has no reason to suggest that local elections are any more or less pointless than they were before.
> All join together and condemn this brutal act. I blame the toxic climate created by Brexit
>
> https://twitter.com/magawk/status/1124017593373868032
When someone pelted Corbyn with an egg, they got jailed. I wonder if the same will happen with Robinson’s attacker !!
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @Cookie said:
> > > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
> >
> > In that case, this is not the website you are looking for!
>
> Perhaps he is here for TSE's fashion tips?
>
> On reflection, probably not.
Come for the PV discussion (c.2013), stay for the railways chat (PB passim).
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @brokenwheel said:
> > > It may not be possible to judge turnout these days from polling station activity, due to the ever-increasing number of postal voters.
> > >
> > > Postal votes should be crossed off the roll, no?
> >
> > Yep. They are here anyway.
>
> But when you ask a presiding officer about turnout, they look at the serial number of the ballot paper they are about to issue, which shows how many they have handed out already that day. That excludes postal voters.
>
> No-one at a polling station is going to go through the registers and count up all the crossings off; that isn’t realistic.
>
> Sure, but if you look at the roll you'll get a good estimate. About a third was crossed off here.
But the postal voters - which could account for 20-25% - are crossed off to make sure they aren’t issued with another ballot paper. They aren’t crossed off because they have or have not cast their vote - that data is held centrally in the council offices. So looking at the crossings off to try and gauge turnout is a pretty poor method.
> All join together and condemn this brutal act. I blame the toxic climate created by Brexit
>
> https://twitter.com/magawk/status/1124017593373868032
In the immortal words of Jamie Vardy "Chat shit, get banged"
Tommy Robinson has deliberately stirred up street violence, he should not be too surprised to be on the recieving end, though I would have just thrown verbal abuse if I were present.
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @Cookie said:
> > > > > > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Petulant and pointless, since whatever your view of the National situation, casting a vote to elect your local councillors carries as much (or as little) point as it always did.
> > > >
> > > > If the leaders of the main political parties react to local election results then this is not true, it is much harder to draw conclusions about the elections or how to respond them this year than generally in the past.
> > >
> > > The “point” of local elections is to choose your local councillors, and hence your local council. Analysis of what the results might mean for national politics is interesting, and perhaps somewhat relevant. But it is not “the point”.
> >
> > How many people are motivated to vote in local elections by local issues, though. Suspect not many.
> >
>
> Nevertheless, the OP has no reason to suggest that local elections are any more or less pointless than they were before.
Except that Central Gov dictates much of what local authorities can and can’t do.
No surprises
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > @Cookie said:
> > > > > > > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Petulant and pointless, since whatever your view of the National situation, casting a vote to elect your local councillors carries as much (or as little) point as it always did.
> > > > >
> > > > > If the leaders of the main political parties react to local election results then this is not true, it is much harder to draw conclusions about the elections or how to respond them this year than generally in the past.
> > > >
> > > > The “point” of local elections is to choose your local councillors, and hence your local council. Analysis of what the results might mean for national politics is interesting, and perhaps somewhat relevant. But it is not “the point”.
> > >
> > > How many people are motivated to vote in local elections by local issues, though. Suspect not many.
> > >
> >
> > Nevertheless, the OP has no reason to suggest that local elections are any more or less pointless than they were before.
>
> Except that Central Gov dictates much of what local authorities can and can’t do.
Yes, but not more so than under Blair - indeed direct dictation has reduced since then, thanks to the LibDem influence in coalition, although shortage of money has reduced the difference this has made.
> Incredibly low turnout by day, not busy but a reasonable flurry after work. That's what I've seen and heard reported. That pattern is very, very ominous for blue team.
Sounds pretty normal for a local Election Day to me.
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > > @Cookie said:
> > > > > > > > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Petulant and pointless, since whatever your view of the National situation, casting a vote to elect your local councillors carries as much (or as little) point as it always did.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If the leaders of the main political parties react to local election results then this is not true, it is much harder to draw conclusions about the elections or how to respond them this year than generally in the past.
> > > > >
> > > > > The “point” of local elections is to choose your local councillors, and hence your local council. Analysis of what the results might mean for national politics is interesting, and perhaps somewhat relevant. But it is not “the point”.
> > > >
> > > > How many people are motivated to vote in local elections by local issues, though. Suspect not many.
> > > >
> > >
> > > Nevertheless, the OP has no reason to suggest that local elections are any more or less pointless than they were before.
> >
> > Except that Central Gov dictates much of what local authorities can and can’t do.
>
> Yes, but not more so than under Blair - indeed direct dictation has reduced since then, thanks to the LibDem influence in coalition, although shortage of money has reduced the difference this has made.
I wasn’t distinguishing between Con and Lab Gov’s - just making the point local elections tend to be driven by national politics. That’s why incumbent Gov’s tend to do badly in local elections whilst in office. I’d be surprised if it wasn’t the same this time around.
"I don't like Farage, but let's face it, he runs rings around all the other politicians"
Here's an example:
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1124003006423474177
That video is clever, Slick, yet folksy. Positive and plausible. He creeps me out but I can see why he appeals to others. Of all the other party leaders, across the UK, the only ones able to do this - appear normal - are Ruth Davidson, maybe Sturgeon on a good day. Caroline Lucas perhaps. That's it.
The rest of them look terrified, wooden, devious, weird, elitist or sad.
> Overheard in a pub (honestly)
>
> "I don't like Farage, but let's face it, he runs rings around all the other politicians"
>
> Here's an example:
>
> https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1124003006423474177
>
> That video is clever, Slick, yet folksy. Positive and plausible. He creeps me out but I can see why he appeals to others. Of all the other party leaders, across the UK, the only ones able to do this - appear normal - are Ruth Davidson, maybe Sturgeon on a good day. Caroline Lucas perhaps. That's it.
>
> The rest of them look terrified, wooden, devious, weird, elitist or sad.
And some of them tick almost all of those boxes. JRM for example.
> > @ydoethur said:
> > Apparently there was a queue in Cannock North this morning when they opened, and unusually (since I vote early in the day) I wasn't the only voter there.
>
> I was the only one in the polling station when I voted and the polling station staff said unusually quiet today when I asked - even for local elections.
What looks like being an exceptional possibly record breaking low turnout will I think be attributable to an unprecedented sense of disillusionment with the whole political class. That has feds into an erosion of the sense of civic duty which I think is or was the main reason motivating people who vote in local elections.
In the EU elections though, that disillusionment will I think manifest itself not in apathy but anger, which is why turnout could hold up and is why Farage will do extraordinarily well.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > @noneoftheabove said:
> > > > > > > > @IanB2 said:
> > > > > > > > > @Cookie said:
> > > > > > > > > I'm not voting. First time in 26 years. I know it's petulant. But there doesn't seem much pointvany more.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Petulant and pointless, since whatever your view of the National situation, casting a vote to elect your local councillors carries as much (or as little) point as it always did.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > If the leaders of the main political parties react to local election results then this is not true, it is much harder to draw conclusions about the elections or how to respond them this year than generally in the past.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > The “point” of local elections is to choose your local councillors, and hence your local council. Analysis of what the results might mean for national politics is interesting, and perhaps somewhat relevant. But it is not “the point”.
> > > > >
> > > > > How many people are motivated to vote in local elections by local issues, though. Suspect not many.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Nevertheless, the OP has no reason to suggest that local elections are any more or less pointless than they were before.
> > >
> > > Except that Central Gov dictates much of what local authorities can and can’t do.
> >
> > Yes, but not more so than under Blair - indeed direct dictation has reduced since then, thanks to the LibDem influence in coalition, although shortage of money has reduced the difference this has made.
>
> I wasn’t distinguishing between Con and Lab Gov’s - just making the point local elections tend to be driven by national politics. That’s why incumbent Gov’s tend to do badly in local elections whilst in office. I’d be surprised if it wasn’t the same this time around.
Yes, but the OPs argument was that his local election vote had suddenly become pointless. I simply argue that this doesn’t stack up.
> > @AmpfieldAndy said:
> > > @ydoethur said:
> > > Apparently there was a queue in Cannock North this morning when they opened, and unusually (since I vote early in the day) I wasn't the only voter there.
> >
> > I was the only one in the polling station when I voted and the polling station staff said unusually quiet today when I asked - even for local elections.
>
> What looks like being an exceptional possibly record breaking low turnout will I think be attributable to an unprecedented sense of disillusionment with the whole political class. That has feds into an erosion of the sense of civic duty which I think is or was the main reason motivating people who vote in local elections.
>
> In the EU elections though, that disillusionment will I think manifest itself not in apathy but anger, which is why turnout could hold up and is why Farage will do extraordinarily well.
I think there is a lot of truth in that.
> When do they count these votes and tell us the result? Will there be exit polls?
Many count tonight, after polls close at 10pm, with results typically from midnight onwards. Some will count tomorrow. No, there won’t be exit polls.
> The people with the most thinking to do are perhaps the Vote Leave team who convinced themselves it was their genius that won the referendum and believed they had marginalised Farage. <
_____
To be fair, Farage would now be retired from politics, if Theresa & the Tories had managed to deliver Brexit. They didn't, so now Farage is weaponised. Who knows how far he can ride this wave of populist anger? It is truly scary stuff.
> 3 LDs in my ward looks certain
>
> No surprises
Which ward are you
> Cable’s pushing a close second on those metrics. <
_____
Recent leaders now retired don't fare much better. Brown: terrified, wooden, sad. Cameron: elitist, a bit devious. Clegg: elitist, wooden, slightly weird. Howard: devious, weird, wooden. And so on and so forth.
Salmond was good in his prime, now he's facing rape charges. Early Blair was good, then he invaded Iraq.
> When do they count these votes and tell us the result? Will there be exit polls?
All the information you need is here:
https://election.pressassociation.com/local-elections-declaration-time/
> > @Thayer5 said:
>
> > Overheard in a pub (honestly)
>
> >
>
> > "I don't like Farage, but let's face it, he runs rings around all the other politicians"
>
> >
>
> > Here's an example:
>
> >
>
> > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1124003006423474177
>
>
>
> >
>
> > That video is clever, Slick, yet folksy. Positive and plausible. He creeps me out but I can see why he appeals to others. Of all the other party leaders, across the UK, the only ones able to do this - appear normal - are Ruth Davidson, maybe Sturgeon on a good day. Caroline Lucas perhaps. That's it.
>
> >
>
> > The rest of them look terrified, wooden, devious, weird, elitist or sad.
>
>
>
> And some of them tick almost all of those boxes. JRM for example.
>
> Cable’s pushing a close second on those metrics.
One reason that I like Layla is that she does "normal" very well and naturally. A breath of fresh air, with just a frisson of geek chic.
Violent crime in London is significantly DOWN. Stop and search is credited, after it was originally and foolishly abandoned by..... Theresa May. What did we do to deserve her political genius? Anyway:
"Knife injuries to teenagers was down 15 per cent over same period from 2,079 to 1,768. Knife crime with injury across all ages was down by 10 per cent and gun crime fell by 6.8 per cent.
Moped-enabled crime dropped by 52.3 per cent to 11,390 - and acid attacks were down by 30 per cent."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stop-and-search-cut-violent-deaths-in-london-by-a-quarter-police-say-knppmwjvx
A cheering note, meaning it is time for a pilsener.
> Pleased to see there is election night coverage on the BBC tonight. They often haven’t bothered in recent years.
*conspiracy hat on*
That's because there is a good chance of Tories doing badly and they want to see that
*conspiracy hat off*
> When do they count these votes and tell us the result? Will there be exit polls?
> @Ishmael_Z said:
> When do they count these votes and tell us the result? Will there be exit polls?
Here's a useful guide.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/02/local-elections-what-to-look-out-for-as-results-come-in
> > @matt said:
> > > @Thayer5 said:
> >
> > > Overheard in a pub (honestly)
> >
> > >
> >
> > > "I don't like Farage, but let's face it, he runs rings around all the other politicians"
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Here's an example:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1124003006423474177
> >
> >
> >
> > >
> >
> > > That video is clever, Slick, yet folksy. Positive and plausible. He creeps me out but I can see why he appeals to others. Of all the other party leaders, across the UK, the only ones able to do this - appear normal - are Ruth Davidson, maybe Sturgeon on a good day. Caroline Lucas perhaps. That's it.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > The rest of them look terrified, wooden, devious, weird, elitist or sad.
> >
> >
> >
> > And some of them tick almost all of those boxes. JRM for example.
> >
> > Cable’s pushing a close second on those metrics.
>
> One reason that I like Layla is that she does "normal" very well and naturally. A breath of fresh air, with just a frisson of geek chic.
Layla Moran? "Siri, what would Ed Miliband look and sound like if he were a tumblr girl?"