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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that turnout is down markedly

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  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @matt said:
    > > > @Thayer5 said:
    > >
    > > > Overheard in a pub (honestly)
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > "I don't like Farage, but let's face it, he runs rings around all the other politicians"
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Here's an example:
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1124003006423474177
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > That video is clever, Slick, yet folksy. Positive and plausible. He creeps me out but I can see why he appeals to others. Of all the other party leaders, across the UK, the only ones able to do this - appear normal - are Ruth Davidson, maybe Sturgeon on a good day. Caroline Lucas perhaps. That's it.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > The rest of them look terrified, wooden, devious, weird, elitist or sad.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > And some of them tick almost all of those boxes. JRM for example.
    > >
    > > Cable’s pushing a close second on those metrics.
    >
    > One reason that I like Layla is that she does "normal" very well and naturally. A breath of fresh air, with just a frisson of geek chic.

    Funnily enough given the first comment one of my key indicators for politicians is would I like to go for a pint with them. Which politician would be good fun down the pub?
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    > @twistedfirestopper3 said:
    > For the first time in as long as I can remember, I haven't voted. Been a shite couple of weeks due to a family illness, and I had a really shite day at the office. Got home, had a soak in the bath, had a glass of red and realised it was the locals. Looked out the window, thought "Feck it". I bet there are a lot of people like that at the minute.

    Good call. Probably won’t matter in any case.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Rob Wilson was Tory MP for Reading East until the last election.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/02/theresa-may-will-stop-nothing-remain-office-sacking-gavin-williamson/

    "Theresa May will stop at nothing to remain in office, as the sacking of Gavin Williamson shows

    Rob Wilson"
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    If you want to see people taking their democratic right very seriously, come to West Belfast. Whilst casting my many votes, as is tradition, I heard one woman at a neighboring booth loudly instruct her friend/relative not to use the pencils provided and to use a pen because 'they can wipe the pencil marks off'

    Part of me thought 'There it is, always a conspiracy that our rights are being suppressed' yet another part of me thought 'crap, I should have done this in black pen.....'.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Thayer5 said:
    > Some rare good news for anyone feeling depressed (i.e. everyone)
    >
    > Violent crime in London is significantly DOWN. Stop and search is credited, after it was originally and foolishly abandoned by..... Theresa May. What did we do to deserve her political genius? Anyway:
    >
    > "Knife injuries to teenagers was down 15 per cent over same period from 2,079 to 1,768. Knife crime with injury across all ages was down by 10 per cent and gun crime fell by 6.8 per cent.
    >
    > Moped-enabled crime dropped by 52.3 per cent to 11,390 - and acid attacks were down by 30 per cent."
    >
    > https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stop-and-search-cut-violent-deaths-in-london-by-a-quarter-police-say-knppmwjvx
    >
    > A cheering note, meaning it is time for a pilsener.
    >
    >

    Good news, although the reality has always been that London is the second-safest big city in the world, after Tokyo. 120 murders a year in a city with a population of 9 million is an incredibly low figure.
  • Options
    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    > @Foxy said:
    > > @matt said:
    > > > @Thayer5 said:
    > >
    > > > Overheard in a pub (honestly)
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > "I don't like Farage, but let's face it, he runs rings around all the other politicians"
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > Here's an example:
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1124003006423474177
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > That video is clever, Slick, yet folksy. Positive and plausible. He creeps me out but I can see why he appeals to others. Of all the other party leaders, across the UK, the only ones able to do this - appear normal - are Ruth Davidson, maybe Sturgeon on a good day. Caroline Lucas perhaps. That's it.
    > >
    > > >
    > >
    > > > The rest of them look terrified, wooden, devious, weird, elitist or sad.
    > >
    > >
    > >
    > > And some of them tick almost all of those boxes. JRM for example.
    > >
    > > Cable’s pushing a close second on those metrics.
    >
    > One reason that I like Layla is that she does "normal" very well and naturally. A breath of fresh air, with just a frisson of geek chic.

    Her career would have been over and stone dead if she was a man who was arrested for spousal abuse. No if not but.
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @notme2 said:
    > > Won this ward last year by just short of 500 for the cons. This year looking a lot more narrow than that, third parties like UKIP, greens and independents have eaten away. You would be surprised how many Con to Green.
    > >
    >
    > In very middle-class / university areas I'd expect an unusually high number of people willing to switch between the Conservatives and Greens.

    If only. I live in a small town in South Gloucestershire and we have a very active ‘green community’ with political aims like influencing the local plan, and we have a green candidate for GE, but nothing today apart from LDem and Tory.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    > @Y0kel said:
    > If you want to see people taking their democratic right very seriously, come to West Belfast. Whilst casting my many votes, as is tradition, I heard one woman at a neighboring booth loudly instruct her friend/relative not to use the pencils provided and to use a pen because 'they can wipe the pencil marks off'
    >
    > Part of me thought 'There it is, always a conspiracy that our rights are being suppressed' yet another part of me thought 'crap, I should have done this in black pen.....'.

    Imagine being the poor bastard who is trusted enough to be within the circle of the great conspiracy but only lowly enough to be the one who has to rub out all the pencil ballot marks.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002

    Thayer5 said:

    Overheard in a pub (honestly)



    "I don't like Farage, but let's face it, he runs rings around all the other politicians"



    Here's an example:



    That video is clever, Slick, yet folksy. Positive and plausible. He creeps me out but I can see why he appeals to others. Of all the other party leaders, across the UK, the only ones able to do this - appear normal - are Ruth Davidson, maybe Sturgeon on a good day. Caroline Lucas perhaps. That's it.



    The rest of them look terrified, wooden, devious, weird, elitist or sad.

    The people with the most thinking to do are perhaps the Vote Leave team who convinced themselves it was their genius that won the referendum and believed they had marginalised Farage.
    Do you disagree with them? It’d be nice to have a fellow believer 😊

    I bigged up Farage for years on here, only to be told he was a drag on the UKIP vote and shouldn’t be let near the Leave campaign by all and sundry
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Imagine being the poor bastard who is trusted enough to be within the circle of the great conspiracy but only lowly enough to be the one who has to rub out all the pencil ballot marks.

    The "Gavin" as it were...
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,092
    My girlfriend and I happily voted for the Lib Dem candidate for North of Tyne mayor in Newcastle.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Nemtynakht said:
    > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > @notme2 said:
    > > > Won this ward last year by just short of 500 for the cons. This year looking a lot more narrow than that, third parties like UKIP, greens and independents have eaten away. You would be surprised how many Con to Green.
    > > >
    > >
    > > In very middle-class / university areas I'd expect an unusually high number of people willing to switch between the Conservatives and Greens.
    >
    > If only. I live in a small town in South Gloucestershire and we have a very active ‘green community’ with political aims like influencing the local plan, and we have a green candidate for GE, but nothing today apart from LDem and Tory.
    >

    There are probably some Bristol University people living in that area. Just a guess.
  • Options
    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > My girlfriend and I happily voted for the Lib Dem candidate for North of Tyne mayor in Newcastle.

    The labour candidate was a shocker,..
  • Options
    notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,823
    > @notme2 said:
    > > @Foxy said:
    > > > @matt said:
    > > > > @Thayer5 said:
    > > >
    > > > > Overheard in a pub (honestly)
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > "I don't like Farage, but let's face it, he runs rings around all the other politicians"
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > Here's an example:
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1124003006423474177
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > That video is clever, Slick, yet folksy. Positive and plausible. He creeps me out but I can see why he appeals to others. Of all the other party leaders, across the UK, the only ones able to do this - appear normal - are Ruth Davidson, maybe Sturgeon on a good day. Caroline Lucas perhaps. That's it.
    > > >
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > > The rest of them look terrified, wooden, devious, weird, elitist or sad.
    > > >
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > And some of them tick almost all of those boxes. JRM for example.
    > > >
    > > > Cable’s pushing a close second on those metrics.
    > >
    > > One reason that I like Layla is that she does "normal" very well and naturally. A breath of fresh air, with just a frisson of geek chic.
    >
    > Her career would have been over and stone dead if she was a man who was arrested for spousal abuse. No if not but.

    Yes, because the power dynamics and level of threat would be very different.

    "Government statistics show that 246 women were killed by their partner or ex-partner from April 2013 to March 2016 in England and Wales. 242 of these 246 women were killed by men, one by a woman, and for three female victims there were no suspect details available. Seventy-two men were killed by partners/ex-partners in the same time period; 32 of these 72 men were killed by men and 40 were killed by women. (ONS, 2017)"

    https://www.womensaid.org.uk/information-support/what-is-domestic-abuse/domestic-abuse-is-a-gendered-crime/
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,092
    notme2 said:

    > @Gallowgate said:

    > My girlfriend and I happily voted for the Lib Dem candidate for North of Tyne mayor in Newcastle.



    The labour candidate was a shocker,..

    He'll probably still win!
  • Options
    In my area, turnout for postal votes down 8-10%, and expect a similar drop from the polling stations today.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    > @notme2 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124039200834301958
    >
    >
    > Matters not a jot.

    Unless the polling card is required as proof of identity (I believe a small number of councils are using that method). I assume they would accept the EU polling card in lieu of the local one...?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    > @TudorRose said:
    > > @notme2 said:
    > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124039200834301958
    > >
    > >
    > > Matters not a jot.
    >
    > Unless the polling card is required as proof of identity (I believe a small number of councils are using that method). I assume they would accept the EU polling card in lieu of the local one...?

    You don't need the poll card to vote normally. So unless it's part of the voter ID, it's basically irrelevant.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,336
    I voted at 20:30. Polling station turnout was 9%, but we have seen significantly boosted postal numbers and return rates are high.

    I am hurting...
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    > @partypoliticalorphan said:
    > In my area, turnout for postal votes down 8-10%, and expect a similar drop from the polling stations today.

    Is that % or percentage points?
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    kle4 said:

    > @not_on_fire said:

    > Pleased to see there is election night coverage on the BBC tonight. They often haven’t bothered in recent years.



    *conspiracy hat on*



    That's because there is a good chance of Tories doing badly and they want to see that



    *conspiracy hat off*

    A terrrrrrrible night for the Tories...
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,336
    > @RochdalePioneers said:
    > I am hurting...

    Just got off the sofa. Owwww.

    Btw WTF has happened to quoting? Why the arrows? Where's the <tags>
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,908
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124039200834301958

    I've not had my EU elections polling card yet?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124039200834301958
    >
    > I've not had my EU elections polling card yet?

    Nor me
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,390
    Deleted.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > My girlfriend and I happily voted for the Lib Dem candidate for North of Tyne mayor in Newcastle.

    You are not supposed to know how your girlfriend voted. :wink:
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,390

    > @RochdalePioneers said:

    > I am hurting...



    Just got off the sofa. Owwww.



    Btw WTF has happened to quoting? Why the arrows? Where's the

    Vanilla issues with new release.
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    I've had my Euros polling card for about a week.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    One of the officials at the polling station this morning was expressing some frustration about the Euro elections.

    I don't know if it was a political statement, or he just didn't want to work again
  • Options
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @partypoliticalorphan said:
    > > In my area, turnout for postal votes down 8-10%, and expect a similar drop from the polling stations today.
    >
    > Is that % or percentage points?

    Sorry, should have been clearer - percentage points. e.g. one ward at 66% postal vote returns is typically c.75%.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019

    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @partypoliticalorphan said:
    > > In my area, turnout for postal votes down 8-10%, and expect a similar drop from the polling stations today.
    >
    > Is that % or percentage points?
    Sorry, should have been clearer - percentage points. e.g. one ward at 66% postal vote returns is typically c.75%.

    Is this a thirds or whole council election?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,823
    > @GIN1138 said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124039200834301958
    >
    > I've not had my EU elections polling card yet?

    Its the deep state...

    Mine arrived monday this week.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > @TudorRose said:
    > > > @notme2 said:
    > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124039200834301958
    > > >
    > > >
    > > > Matters not a jot.
    > >
    > > Unless the polling card is required as proof of identity (I believe a small number of councils are using that method). I assume they would accept the EU polling card in lieu of the local one...?
    >
    > You don't need the poll card to vote normally. So unless it's part of the voter ID, it's basically irrelevant.

    Mid Sussex, Watford and North West Leics require the polling card as voter ID in these elections.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,894
    Evening all :)

    Now where was it they used to say "vote early and often".

    Farage is leading the agenda and drawing support from both the Conservatives and Labour. He must be hoping the Conservative fear of a minority Corbyn administration is such that it will play to his tune. The problem is the Conservatives are in no position to offer Farage anything and Farage is therefore stuck until the next GE shouting from the outside.

    He must also know that IF, by some miracle, the WA passes, his fox is well and truly shot but the existential threat he now poses to both the Conservative and Labour parties may well force them together thus, ironically, Farage may well end up enabling the Brexit he is trying so desperately to obtain (though not of course the BINO proposed by May).

    It is therefore in Farage's interest for the current stalemate to endure ad infinitum and of course ad nauseam to most voters. The longer it lasts the stronger he gets.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,336
    Win or lose when the results are declared tomorrow, the party can go bolloxif they think I am going out campaigning for the Euros. It's only the fact that there are Euro elections that have saved the locals - Brexit protest votes can wait 3 weeks
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    > @TudorRose said:
    > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > @TudorRose said:
    > > > > @notme2 said:
    > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124039200834301958
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Matters not a jot.
    > > >
    > > > Unless the polling card is required as proof of identity (I believe a small number of councils are using that method). I assume they would accept the EU polling card in lieu of the local one...?
    > >
    > > You don't need the poll card to vote normally. So unless it's part of the voter ID, it's basically irrelevant.
    >
    > Mid Sussex, Watford and North West Leics require the polling card as voter ID in these elections.

    I thought there was always at least one alternative?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,336
    I will try and give you all updates from Stockton-on-Teestomorrow when we start counting
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Now where was it they used to say "vote early and often".

    Farage is leading the agenda and drawing support from both the Conservatives and Labour. He must be hoping the Conservative fear of a minority Corbyn administration is such that it will play to his tune. The problem is the Conservatives are in no position to offer Farage anything and Farage is therefore stuck until the next GE shouting from the outside.

    He must also know that IF, by some miracle, the WA passes, his fox is well and truly shot but the existential threat he now poses to both the Conservative and Labour parties may well force them together thus, ironically, Farage may well end up enabling the Brexit he is trying so desperately to obtain (though not of course the BINO proposed by May).

    It is therefore in Farage's interest for the current stalemate to endure ad infinitum and of course ad nauseam to most voters. The longer it lasts the stronger he gets.

    Farage is inevitable.
  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    > @TudorRose said:
    > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > @TudorRose said:
    > > > > @notme2 said:
    > > > > > @Scott_P said:
    > > > > > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1124039200834301958
    > > > >
    > > > >
    > > > > Matters not a jot.
    > > >
    > > > Unless the polling card is required as proof of identity (I believe a small number of councils are using that method). I assume they would accept the EU polling card in lieu of the local one...?
    > >
    > > You don't need the poll card to vote normally. So unless it's part of the voter ID, it's basically irrelevant.
    >
    > Mid Sussex, Watford and North West Leics require the polling card as voter ID in these elections.

    No locals in my neck of the woods, so if you turned up at the local polling station today with your Euro card the junior Taekwondo class (6-8pm) would wonder what on earth you were doing.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    So:

    Are many councils counting tonight, or will it be an early night for those of us not on US West Coast time?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899
    edited May 2019
    > @Pulpstar said:
    > > @bigjohnowls said:
    > > 3 LDs in my ward looks certain
    > >
    > > No surprises
    >
    > Which ward are you

    Barrow Hill and New Whittington traditionally LD but due to LDs being in coalition with Tories LDs were 1st 8th and 9th last time
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    So:
    Are many councils counting tonight, or will it be an early night for those of us not on US West Coast time?

    Looks about half and half;

    https://election.pressassociation.com/local-elections-declaration-time/
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    > @brokenwheel said:
    > Evening all :)
    >
    > Now where was it they used to say "vote early and often".
    >
    > Farage is leading the agenda and drawing support from both the Conservatives and Labour. He must be hoping the Conservative fear of a minority Corbyn administration is such that it will play to his tune. The problem is the Conservatives are in no position to offer Farage anything and Farage is therefore stuck until the next GE shouting from the outside.
    >
    > He must also know that IF, by some miracle, the WA passes, his fox is well and truly shot but the existential threat he now poses to both the Conservative and Labour parties may well force them together thus, ironically, Farage may well end up enabling the Brexit he is trying so desperately to obtain (though not of course the BINO proposed by May).
    >
    > It is therefore in Farage's interest for the current stalemate to endure ad infinitum and of course ad nauseam to most voters. The longer it lasts the stronger he gets.
    >
    > Farage is inevitable.

    Do you think he's about to give up political life, start farming, and then get killed by a fat, drunken Swede?
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    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Just voted in Morley North. Turnout very low apparently.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Tellers here in East Herts said it was "reasonably busy" and there were a fair few names crossed off. Saw 7 peopel in the 3 minutes i was there not voting Tory...
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    And there I thought you were going to make a comment about him making half the population disappear, but yes anything's now possible.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,029
    edited May 2019
    > @Nemtynakht said:
    > https://www.gazetteseries.co.uk/news/17610958.almondsbury-couple-bin-ballots-in-protest-of-lack-of-choice/
    >
    > It’s all going off around here
    --------------------------------------------------------------
    <i> They were asked to put a cross next to up to four of the names. But neither wanted to vote for a member of UKIP or a candidate they knew nothing about.

    “It says nothing about them whatsoever,” Mr Popham said of the three non-UKIP candidates.

    “I’m loathe to vote for someone I have no inkling about. </i>
    ----------------------------------------------------
    I presume they've never voted in a parish council election before, given it is uncommon (though not unheard of), in my experience, for any candidates to have party affiliation shown outside of larger towns. Occasionally you see 'local farmer' or something in the description. But since when was the form where we get most of the information on candidates?
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    > @brokenwheel said:
    > > @TheWhiteRabbit said:
    > > > @partypoliticalorphan said:
    > > > In my area, turnout for postal votes down 8-10%, and expect a similar drop from the polling stations today.
    > >
    > > Is that % or percentage points?
    > Sorry, should have been clearer - percentage points. e.g. one ward at 66% postal vote returns is typically c.75%.
    >
    > Is this a thirds or whole council election?

    By thirds. I am comparing to last year (2018) and to 2016.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,897
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1124047130702827523

    LOL! He'd give trump a run for his money
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    It seems to be vote rarely, vote sullen.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,029
    Roger said:

    > @Scott_P said:

    >





    LOL! He'd give trump a run for his money
    I hope not. Trump won after all.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Nemtynakht said:
    > > > @AndyJS said:
    > > > > @notme2 said:
    > > > > Won this ward last year by just short of 500 for the cons. This year looking a lot more narrow than that, third parties like UKIP, greens and independents have eaten away. You would be surprised how many Con to Green.
    > > > >
    > > >
    > > > In very middle-class / university areas I'd expect an unusually high number of people willing to switch between the Conservatives and Greens.
    > >
    > > If only. I live in a small town in South Gloucestershire and we have a very active ‘green community’ with political aims like influencing the local plan, and we have a green candidate for GE, but nothing today apart from LDem and Tory.
    > >
    >
    > There are probably some Bristol University people living in that area. Just a guess.

    Tends to be more engineers and anyone who needs to use the motorway networks for work. I am genuinely surprised that one person I know didn’t stand but then the reality of trying to achieve anything within a political structure when a pet project means cutting something else the council does is not as attractive as going on a march or talking about your wind turbine and ground source heat pump down the pub
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,323
    Wow. Just spotted this. Would he? Could he?

    <i>Rumours are circulating that Farage’s aim is to destroy the leader he fears most: Boris Johnson. This is more doable than it might sound. The former foreign secretary holds a 5,000 majority in Uxbridge —respectable, but not a lifetime guarantee, given the volatility of contemporary politics and London’s drift away from the Tories. Word is that Farage is considering standing against Boris in the next general election. He’d lose. But he might take Johnson down with him by splitting the Leave vote in the seat, letting Labour in through the middle.</i>

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/will-nigel-farages-brexit-party-sink-the-tories/
  • Options
    Not many people around here (North Devon) voting. And a lot of those who did vote say that they spoilt their ballots.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    Voted at 8.45pm in Potters Bar Parkfield Ward (The Walk polling station) - looked like only approx 15% to 20% of names crossed out (though don't know if that includes postals).

    However seemed to be a late "rush" - 7 or 8 people went in within about a 3 minute period.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > Wow. Just spotted this. Would he? Could he?
    >
    > <i>Rumours are circulating that Farage’s aim is to destroy the leader he fears most: Boris Johnson. This is more doable than it might sound. The former foreign secretary holds a 5,000 majority in Uxbridge —respectable, but not a lifetime guarantee, given the volatility of contemporary politics and London’s drift away from the Tories. Word is that Farage is considering standing against Boris in the next general election. He’d lose. But he might take Johnson down with him by splitting the Leave vote in the seat, letting Labour in through the middle.</i>
    >
    > https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/will-nigel-farages-brexit-party-sink-the-tories/

    Farage wants to help elect a Corbyn-supporting MP? Sounds like a risky move to me.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,385
    Completely off-topic:

    Has anyone ever seen Chris Grayling and Vanilla's tech support manager in the same room?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    > @Roger said:
    > > @Scott_P said:
    > > https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1124047130702827523
    >
    > LOL! He'd give trump a run for his money

    I get the vibe Boris hasn't written that tweet himself
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    > @kle4 said:
    > > @Nemtynakht said:
    > > https://www.gazetteseries.co.uk/news/17610958.almondsbury-couple-bin-ballots-in-protest-of-lack-of-choice/
    > >
    > > It’s all going off around here
    > --------------------------------------------------------------
    > <i> They were asked to put a cross next to up to four of the names. But neither wanted to vote for a member of UKIP or a candidate they knew nothing about.
    >
    > “It says nothing about them whatsoever,” Mr Popham said of the three non-UKIP candidates.
    >
    > “I’m loathe to vote for someone I have no inkling about. </i>
    > ----------------------------------------------------
    > I presume they've never voted in a parish council election before, given it is uncommon (though not unheard of), in my experience, for any candidates to have party affiliation shown outside of larger towns. Occasionally you see 'local farmer' or something in the description. But since when was the form where we get most of the information on candidates?
    >
    >

    I was laughing to myself think the local angle klaxon has been going off in the newspaper office.

    Phone rings
    “Yes, this is the gazette.”
    “In the bin you say. We’ll have someone straight round”
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    > @JonCisBack said:
    > Tellers here in East Herts said it was "reasonably busy" and there were a fair few names crossed off. Saw 7 peopel in the 3 minutes i was there not voting Tory...

    I was told at 6pm that (a) it had been pretty busy and (b) 10% of voters had turned out at that time.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    > @liquoriceSeahorse said:
    > Not many people around here (North Devon) voting. And a lot of those who did vote say that they spoilt their ballots.

    Welcome
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,387
    Politicians. Scum of the earth. Who can believe a word they say about anything?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Facebook Bans Paul Joseph Watson, Milo Yiannopoulos, Laura Loomer, Louis Farrakhan"

    https://news.yahoo.com/facebook-bans-paul-joseph-watson-181039049.html
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,442
    I just voted in the local elections here in Ilford :innocent:
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > I just voted in the local elections here in Ilford :innocent:

    Was there a by-election or parish election?
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,880
    Drutt said:

    Layla Moran? "Siri, what would Ed Miliband look and sound like if he were a tumblr girl?"

    "Electable".

    But don't ask me, I voted for chaos with Ed Miliband...
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,880
    On turnout: I live next to our polling station (I'm literally five metres from where the tellers sit and can hear them from my desk) and it's been quieter than usual all day, but perked up a lot at 6ish. I'm guessing that the retired haven't turned out in their usual numbers, but that working people are voting in equal or greater numbers to normal. But this is a very affluent, educated area so not necessarily something to extrapolate from.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,442
    AndyJS said:

    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:

    > I just voted in the local elections here in Ilford :innocent:



    Was there a by-election or parish election?

    No, I was just pretending to be Boris :)
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176

    On turnout: I live next to our polling station (I'm literally five metres from where the tellers sit and can hear them from my desk) and it's been quieter than usual all day, but perked up a lot at 6ish. I'm guessing that the retired haven't turned out in their usual numbers, but that working people are voting in equal or greater numbers to normal. But this is a very affluent, educated area so not necessarily something to extrapolate from.

    extrapolate :wink: very good!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    > @Recidivist said:
    > It seems to be vote rarely, vote sullen.

    As my wife and I went to vote this morning I turned to her just as we got to the polling station

    " You know I still don't know who i'm actually going to vote for" I said.

    She laughed and said "same here"

    I wonder if that has been more common than usual today.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    > @Scott_P said:
    > https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1124047898264645632

    Cuz he'd share it with the Telegraph?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,011
    By contrast, I was pleasantly surprised at the number of names crossed off up here at 7pm. Especially since we are only voting for North of Tyne mayor. No council up today.
    Was expecting many fewer.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    > > @Sunil_Prasannan said:
    >
    > > I just voted in the local elections here in Ilford :innocent:
    >
    >
    >
    > Was there a by-election or parish election?
    >
    > No, I was just pretending to be Boris :)

    Lol.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Floater said:

    > @GIN1138 said:

    > > @Scott_P said:

    > >



    >

    > I've not had my EU elections polling card yet?



    Nor me
    I had mine about 10 days ago - but we don’t have local elections so the local ERO and their team are less busy.

    Still it doesn’t matter as long as you check where your polling station is on your council website.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,011
    edited May 2019
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > > Wow. Just spotted this. Would he? Could he?
    > >
    > > <i>Rumours are circulating that Farage’s aim is to destroy the leader he fears most: Boris Johnson. This is more doable than it might sound. The former foreign secretary holds a 5,000 majority in Uxbridge —respectable, but not a lifetime guarantee, given the volatility of contemporary politics and London’s drift away from the Tories. Word is that Farage is considering standing against Boris in the next general election. He’d lose. But he might take Johnson down with him by splitting the Leave vote in the seat, letting Labour in through the middle.</i>
    > >
    > > https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/will-nigel-farages-brexit-party-sink-the-tories/
    >
    > Farage wants to help elect a Corbyn-supporting MP? Sounds like a risky move to me.

    Well he does seem very comfortable with the RCP, so maybe a wishy washy Corbynite would be OK.
    Hasta la Victoria Siempre, Nigel.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    > @Scott_P said:

    >





    Cuz he'd share it with the Telegraph?
    Perhaps the ‘evidence’ has gone missing?!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2019
    Councils that are expected to declare early:

    "Broxbourne 00:01
    Halton 00:01
    Basildon 00:30
    Harlow 00:30
    Newark 00:30
    Rochford 00:30
    St Helens 00:30
    Castle Point 01:00
    Dacorum 01:00
    East Hertfordshire 01:00
    Hartlepool 01:00
    North Tyneside 01:00
    Salford 01:00
    South Tyneside 01:00
    Sunderland 01:00
    Swindon 01:00
    Tameside 01:00
    Wolverhampton 01:00"

    https://election.pressassociation.com/local-elections-declaration-time/
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Councils that are expected to declare early:
    >
    > "Broxbourne 00:01
    > Halton 00:01
    > Basildon 00:30
    > Harlow 00:30
    > Newark 00:30
    > Rochford 00:30
    > St Helens 00:30
    > Castle Point 01:00
    > Dacorum 01:00
    > East Hertfordshire 01:00
    > Hartlepool 01:00
    > North Tyneside 01:00
    > Salford 01:00
    > South Tyneside 01:00
    > Sunderland 01:00
    > Swindon 01:00
    > Tameside 01:00
    > Wolverhampton 01:00"
    >
    > https://election.pressassociation.com/local-elections-declaration-time/

    Wolverhampton LABOUR HOLD

    There, I help you
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967
    > @AndyJS said:
    > Councils that are expected to declare early:
    >
    > "Broxbourne 00:01
    > Halton 00:01
    > Basildon 00:30
    > Harlow 00:30
    > Newark 00:30
    > Rochford 00:30
    > St Helens 00:30
    > Castle Point 01:00
    > Dacorum 01:00
    > East Hertfordshire 01:00
    > Hartlepool 01:00
    > North Tyneside 01:00
    > Salford 01:00
    > South Tyneside 01:00
    > Sunderland 01:00
    > Swindon 01:00
    > Tameside 01:00
    > Wolverhampton 01:00"
    >
    > https://election.pressassociation.com/local-elections-declaration-time/

    We should be getting some ward-level results in about 25 minutes or so.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,092
    AndyJS said:

    Councils that are expected to declare early:



    "Broxbourne 00:01

    Halton 00:01

    Basildon 00:30

    Harlow 00:30

    Newark 00:30

    Rochford 00:30

    St Helens 00:30

    Castle Point 01:00

    Dacorum 01:00

    East Hertfordshire 01:00

    Hartlepool 01:00

    North Tyneside 01:00

    Salford 01:00

    South Tyneside 01:00

    Sunderland 01:00

    Swindon 01:00

    Tameside 01:00

    Wolverhampton 01:00"



    https://election.pressassociation.com/local-elections-declaration-time/

    Sunderland slipping down the league table as usual.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713
    > @Gallowgate said:
    > Councils that are expected to declare early:
    >
    >
    >
    > "Broxbourne 00:01
    >
    > Halton 00:01
    >
    > Basildon 00:30
    >
    > Harlow 00:30
    >
    > Newark 00:30
    >
    > Rochford 00:30
    >
    > St Helens 00:30
    >
    > Castle Point 01:00
    >
    > Dacorum 01:00
    >
    > East Hertfordshire 01:00
    >
    > Hartlepool 01:00
    >
    > North Tyneside 01:00
    >
    > Salford 01:00
    >
    > South Tyneside 01:00
    >
    > Sunderland 01:00
    >
    > Swindon 01:00
    >
    > Tameside 01:00
    >
    > Wolverhampton 01:00"
    >
    >
    >
    > https://election.pressassociation.com/local-elections-declaration-time/
    >
    > Sunderland slipping down the league table as usual.

    That earned you a 'Like'!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,442
    AndyJS said:

    Councils that are expected to declare early:



    "Broxbourne 00:01

    Halton 00:01

    Basildon 00:30

    Harlow 00:30

    Newark 00:30

    Rochford 00:30

    St Helens 00:30

    Castle Point 01:00

    Dacorum 01:00

    East Hertfordshire 01:00

    Hartlepool 01:00

    North Tyneside 01:00

    Salford 01:00

    South Tyneside 01:00

    Sunderland 01:00

    Swindon 01:00

    Tameside 01:00

    Wolverhampton 01:00"



    https://election.pressassociation.com/local-elections-declaration-time/

    Thanks, hope to see some interesting ones!
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    > @AndyJS said:
    > > @Stark_Dawning said:
    > > Wow. Just spotted this. Would he? Could he?
    > >
    > > <i>Rumours are circulating that Farage’s aim is to destroy the leader he fears most: Boris Johnson. This is more doable than it might sound. The former foreign secretary holds a 5,000 majority in Uxbridge —respectable, but not a lifetime guarantee, given the volatility of contemporary politics and London’s drift away from the Tories. Word is that Farage is considering standing against Boris in the next general election. He’d lose. But he might take Johnson down with him by splitting the Leave vote in the seat, letting Labour in through the middle.</i>
    > >
    > > https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/will-nigel-farages-brexit-party-sink-the-tories/
    >
    > Farage wants to help elect a Corbyn-supporting MP? Sounds like a risky move to me.

    Farage's strategy is 'Remain and Complain'.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713
    Bradford counting tomorrow.

    We're hoping for a gain in our ward.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Currently Tories up 6 seats on 115 thanks to uncontested seats
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    > @stodge said:
    > Evening all :)
    >
    > Now where was it they used to say "vote early and often".
    >
    > Farage is leading the agenda and drawing support from both the Conservatives and Labour. He must be hoping the Conservative fear of a minority Corbyn administration is such that it will play to his tune. The problem is the Conservatives are in no position to offer Farage anything and Farage is therefore stuck until the next GE shouting from the outside.
    >
    > He must also know that IF, by some miracle, the WA passes, his fox is well and truly shot but the existential threat he now poses to both the Conservative and Labour parties may well force them together thus, ironically, Farage may well end up enabling the Brexit he is trying so desperately to obtain (though not of course the BINO proposed by May).
    >
    > It is therefore in Farage's interest for the current stalemate to endure ad infinitum and of course ad nauseam to most voters. The longer it lasts the stronger he gets.

    Indeed.

    Its Remain and Complain.

    The UK actually leaving the EU would destroy Farage politically.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,880

    Farage's strategy is 'Remain and Complain'.

    Shurely "Remain and **nker"
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,908
    > @Thayer5 said:
    > ouch
    >
    > https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1124059505015382016

    LOL! If they're already staring into the abyss just wait for the EU elections. :D
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2019
    Thayer5 said:
    Yeah and when you add postals they’ll be 35-40% or average for a local election not on the same day as GE. A lot of people wailing about low turnouts don’t appreciate locals usually are lower turnout than GEs.

    We had this at the Newport West by-election, where everyone was saying it was a low turnout but it was actually pretty average for a by-election.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,011
    > @dyedwoolie said:
    > Currently Tories up 6 seats on 115 thanks to uncontested seats

    Think that may be the high point of the evening for them. Savour it, cheer and neck that champagne quickly while it lasts.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    > @Thayer5 said:
    > ouch
    >
    > https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1124059505015382016

    That figure may not include postal votes, which comprise a much larger percentage of votes these days.
This discussion has been closed.