politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin
Comments
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So if every Tory had voted with their government the vote would have passed by 1? Bastards.rottenborough said:The last two weeks were well worth it:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/11055564612902256650 -
It might get MPs willing to pass something.Floater said:
err - when and what does that gain us?another_richard said:
Time for a GE.Floater said:
With the EU seemingly clear no extension beyond May.Casino_Royale said:
I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.Big_G_NorthWales said:Brexit is over as remainers takeover
In any case there's going to be a GE soon because this government is barely functioning as it is and things are going to steadily decline.0 -
How many of the 75 Tories are Brexiteers and how many are Remainers?0
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As as Cox made entirely clear in his statement this afternoon, resiling from the agreement would remain within the power of any government.Philip_Thompson said:
No it wasn't. The final paragraph showed that was entirely possible.Nigelb said:
Perhaps not, but the fact that it would be impossible to permanently trap the UK in it against its will was very clearly demonstrated. They have quite possibly thrown away Brexit on a legal irrelevance.malcolmg said:
Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.HYUFD said:
The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will RemainersPhilip_Thompson said:
Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:HYUFD said:
Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deservePhilip_Thompson said:
The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.Richard_Tyndall said:Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.
Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston
Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.
As I say, quibbling over an irrelevance in the scheme of things.
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TM will vote against No Deal says BBC.
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From memory there were 8 Remainers against a Deal. 3 of those 8 are now Tiggers so roughly 70 Leave to 5 Remain rebels.tlg86 said:How many of the 75 Tories are Brexiteers and how many are Remainers?
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To be fair on the double breasted string bean, even the ERG votes wouldnt have been enough to get over the line. May as well be hung for a sheep as a lamb.another_richard said:
Mogg's got nothing.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
He's a posturer.0 -
Of course. She's not a complete moron. And when only 100-150 MPs vote for no deal, if that, they'll see how stupid they are....dixiedean said:TM will vote against No Deal says BBC.
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Who's going to be the new PM to invoke A50 ?Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
I don't see many of the ERG willing to step up and face some reality, take some responsibility and do some work.0 -
HeroesDavidL said:
So if every Tory had voted with their government the vote would have passed by 1? Bastards.rottenborough said:The last two weeks were well worth it:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/11055564612902256650 -
I always enjoyed tightly drafting documents so that the parties were directed down a certain course of action but without explicitly saying so. Then a slightly dim, though surprisingly senior individual would fail to understand and one would need to add, “for the avoidance of doubt....” which them alerted all sides to what was happening. Congratulations on being 50% of that individual.Philip_Thompson said:
No it wasn't. The final paragraph showed that was entirely possible.Nigelb said:
Perhaps not, but the fact that it would be impossible to permanently trap the UK in it against its will was very clearly demonstrated. They have quite possibly thrown away Brexit on a legal irrelevance.malcolmg said:
Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.HYUFD said:
The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will RemainersPhilip_Thompson said:
Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:HYUFD said:
Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deservePhilip_Thompson said:
The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.Richard_Tyndall said:Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.
Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston
Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.0 -
General Election. May either calls another early one or is compelled to do so.tottenhamWC said:
What do you think happens then?Casino_Royale said:
I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.Big_G_NorthWales said:Brexit is over as remainers takeover
Or she resigns, and something weird happens like a VoNC and an alternative administration for navigating the Brexit process takes over instead that commands a level of cross party support.0 -
"It's the only way to be sure"Richard_Tyndall said:
Support a vote of no confidence in the Government? If they brought down May without an extension then it would be a No Deal Brexit.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.0 -
Then the government collapses and we get the crap shoot of an election.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
Premier Comrade Corbyn?
Jeeezuss we are so doomed0 -
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.0 -
Remainers were Bebb, Greening, Grieve, Gyimah, Jo Johnson, Lee and I think all the rest were Brexiteers.tlg86 said:How many of the 75 Tories are Brexiteers and how many are Remainers?
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That's a kind of chocolate Malcolm?malcolmg said:
HeroesDavidL said:
So if every Tory had voted with their government the vote would have passed by 1? Bastards.rottenborough said:The last two weeks were well worth it:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/11055564612902256650 -
I suspect some of the potential Tory switchers switched back when they realised the deal was going down big; voting against just to keep their constituency parties happy.0
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The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.Jonathan said:
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?HYUFD said:
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled0 -
Looks like my cowardice on the spreads cost me £24. Oh well, where do we go from here though..0
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The EU will grant an extension but for two months max . If the UK wants to extend after that then it will have to be for another EU ref or general election .
The media are desperately trying to big up the EU not granting the two month extension but they won’t want to be blamed for no deal .0 -
Well you have been wrong on just about every other number you put up on here so you will certainly be wrong on those ones.dots said:I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.
The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.
In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.
Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.0 -
If we get off this crazy ride only the true nutters would want to go round again.Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.0 -
I'm right in the Northwest corner of Mann's constituency, about a hundred yards from both Flint and Barron'sanother_richard said:
Adjacent constituencies - the heartland of Blue Labour.tlg86 said:0 -
If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...0 -
Yvette Cooper going on about uncertainty really bugged me but she had thought through to the next stage which others picked up on as well.
If there is an overwhelming majority against no deal (which there will be) will the government introduce primary legislation to remove the default position currently in the legislation. Will they be able to do that with revocation at the same time given that it is our Treaty with the EU that means we leave on 29th March, not actually our domestic legislation?0 -
And Remain will win, and we'll move on and no-one worry too much.Richard_Tyndall said:
Well you have been wrong on just about every other number you put up on here so you will certainly be wrong on those ones.dots said:I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.
The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.
In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.
Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.
If there is a referendum I expect Remain will get far fewer votes than last time and Leave will run with an abstention campaign to delegitimise the whole process. After that the country will be ungovernable for the next few decades.
Most people are not political, they just want the trains to run on time, and to see a doctor easily...0 -
Only if the opposition also co-operate in the disruption.Jonathan said:
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?HYUFD said:
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
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Then we revoke. This is not an unlikely scenario.bookseller said:If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...0 -
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.rottenborough said:
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.Casino_Royale said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.0 -
I think unilaterally revoking Article 50 is now the only thing we can do, while we figure out what the hell is going on.0
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How did JRM vote?0
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If May revokes or goes ref2 I will never vote Tory again, ever0
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If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.Slackbladder said:
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.0 -
Mercer "she is the leader.... at the moment"
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Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.Casino_Royale said:
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.rottenborough said:
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.Casino_Royale said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.0 -
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?Sandpit said:
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.Jonathan said:
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?HYUFD said:
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled0 -
TMay "has not discussed resignation."
Which seems utterly bizarre.
She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc.
But not discussed?0 -
Nicky Morgan questioning whether May's position is untenable too.Floater said:Mercer "she is the leader.... at the moment"
Spoiler Alert: It is.0 -
She has no choice - the hard liners have blown it up. Don't shoot the messengerkjohnw said:If May revokes or goes ref2 I will never vote Tory again, ever
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You could lose a day with another VONC?Nigelb said:
Only if the opposition also co-operate in the disruption.Jonathan said:
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?HYUFD said:
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
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She doesn't discuss anything else, so why start with resignation.dixiedean said:TMay "has not discussed resignation."
Which seems utterly bizarre.
She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc.
But not discussed?0 -
You're absolutely delusional. Once A50 is revoked we won't leave for 20-30 years or if the EU collapses.Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.0 -
You Tories and your bastards..DavidL said:
So if every Tory had voted with their government the vote would have passed by 1? Bastards.rottenborough said:The last two weeks were well worth it:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/11055564612902256650 -
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From the start the only ones who could destroy Brexit is bizarely the ERG.
Remainers always needed them to act like the lunatics they are . I still can’t see another EU vote but more likely a softer Brexit but we live in strange times .
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Revolution attempts in Britain generally lead back toward restoration; this time doesn't look any different.0
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Yes but if the leavers had all lined up enough Labour supporters would have been found to push it over the line.williamglenn said:
Remainers were Bebb, Greening, Grieve, Gyimah, Jo Johnson, Lee and I think all the rest were Brexiteers.tlg86 said:How many of the 75 Tories are Brexiteers and how many are Remainers?
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Oh FFS...the Tories would be ***ked like a dock side hooker and you know it.Philip_Thompson said:
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.Slackbladder said:
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
I hate Corbyn, and I would vote Labour to stop a no-deal happening. It's economic suicide, and everyone knows it.
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And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.Slackbladder said:
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.Casino_Royale said:
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.rottenborough said:
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.Casino_Royale said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.0 -
No wonder you know the Tickhill to Oldcotes road !Pulpstar said:
I'm right in the Northwest corner of Mann's constituency, about a hundred yards from both Flint and Barron'sanother_richard said:
Adjacent constituencies - the heartland of Blue Labour.tlg86 said:0 -
But who revokes? Surely if the EU turns around and doesn't grant an extension, there would need to be a vote to revoke. I guess you are saying there is a majority in the HoC for revoke?DavidL said:
Then we revoke. This is not an unlikely scenario.bookseller said:If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
We'd see a resurgent UKIP, that's for sure...0 -
Dear hard leavers.....
A No-deal will never never never happen....0 -
I don't think that there will be a majority for that unless it is time limited. It is simply the worst of all worlds as a long term solution. The soft leave and remainer Tories will be wary of it as it is basically the policy fig-leaf for the Labour front bench and not to be taken seriously.Casino_Royale said:
I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.Big_G_NorthWales said:Brexit is over as remainers takeover
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Almost the only thing that could make the current situation worse is to put Boris in charge of it.dixiedean said:TMay "has not discussed resignation."
Which seems utterly bizarre.
She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc.
But not discussed?0 -
+1Slackbladder said:
Oh FFS...the Tories would be ***ked like a dock side hooker and you know it.Philip_Thompson said:
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.Slackbladder said:
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
I hate Corbyn, and I would vote Labour to stop a no-deal happening. It's economic suicide, and everyone knows it.0 -
Good point well made. Was making the error of applying logic for a moment there.rottenborough said:
She doesn't discuss anything else, so why start with resignation.dixiedean said:TMay "has not discussed resignation."
Which seems utterly bizarre.
She may have concluded there was no one else, that she wished to continue, that she was best placed, etc.
But not discussed?0 -
I guess the EU will insist on a long extension, perhaps an indefinite one.bookseller said:If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
This will probably be the wisest course for them - a short extension would be pointless and forcing us to revoke A50 at this moment would be a humiliation too far (I hope). Though I do expect it to be revoked during the extension period.
0 -
Every Tory would include the likes of Grieve.DavidL said:
So if every Tory had voted with their government the vote would have passed by 1? Bastards.rottenborough said:The last two weeks were well worth it:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1105556461290225665
So even if every Leaver Tory had backed the Deal it would have still lost.0 -
Amending the leaving date doesn't require primary legislation.Jonathan said:
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?Sandpit said:
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.Jonathan said:
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?HYUFD said:
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled0 -
There will definitely be a majority for revoke if the alternative is no deal.bookseller said:
But who revokes? Surely if the EU turns around and doesn't grant an extension, there would need to be a vote to revoke. I guess you are saying there is a majority in the HoC for revoke?DavidL said:
Then we revoke. This is not an unlikely scenario.bookseller said:If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
We'd see a resurgent UKIP, that's for sure...0 -
A satisfactory day’s betting. My only regret is that there weren’t more Tory nutters.0
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That’s a good question. I *think* that a change in the date can be by a Statutory Instrument, rather than requiring primary legislation, which makes the process easier as it’s a simple vote in each House rather than a Bill.Jonathan said:
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?Sandpit said:
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.Jonathan said:
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?HYUFD said:
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
Of course, the minister would need to have the new date agreed with the EU council unanimously beforehand, which might also prove tricky.0 -
Nice long extension makes perfect sense. The time scales imposed by A50 were always nuts, and we were never going to get the future trade agreement done in 2 or even 3 years either.anothernick said:I guess the EU will insist on a long extension, perhaps an indefinite one.
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Thanks. Thought it might be harder. Hard to stop then.Sandpit said:
That’s a good question. I *think* that a change in the date can be by a Statutory Instrument, rather than requiring primary legislation, which makes the process easier as it’s a simple vote in each House rather than a Bill.Jonathan said:
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?Sandpit said:
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.Jonathan said:
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?HYUFD said:
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled
Of course, the minister would need to have the new date agreed with the EU council unanimously beforehand, which might also prove tricky.0 -
If all Tory MPs had loyally backed their Government the MV would have passed tonight.
By one vote.0 -
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So be it. No deal is better than a bad deal, and no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.MaxPB said:
You're absolutely delusional. Once A50 is revoked we won't leave for 20-30 years or if the EU collapses.Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.0 -
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "James II"...IanB2 said:Revolution attempts in Britain generally lead back toward restoration; this time doesn't look any different.
0 -
And what would have made Grieve and co back the deal?Casino_Royale said:If all Tory MPs had loyally backed their Government the MV would have passed tonight.
By one vote.
The deal was dead without DUP support.0 -
Is there anyone in the 27 who would say no? Hope HMG have wargamed that scenario.williamglenn said:0 -
Meaningless Vote...Casino_Royale said:If all Tory MPs had loyally backed their Government the MV would have passed tonight.
By one vote.0 -
Restoration of institutions, not individuals. After all, the Cavalier Parliament couldn't exactly sew Charles I's head back on.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "James II"...IanB2 said:Revolution attempts in Britain generally lead back toward restoration; this time doesn't look any different.
0 -
Betfair have a market up on tomorrow’s ‘No Deal’ vote. There’s a 2% return available backing No to No Deal.0
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The ERG will never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.Slackbladder said:
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.Casino_Royale said:
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.rottenborough said:
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.Casino_Royale said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Thanks, fuckwits.
0 -
Yes she will be directed to revoke by the majority in the HoC at that point and she already indicated in her statement tonight that she will follow such directions.bookseller said:
But who revokes? Surely if the EU turns around and doesn't grant an extension, there would need to be a vote to revoke. I guess you are saying there is a majority in the HoC for revoke?DavidL said:
Then we revoke. This is not an unlikely scenario.bookseller said:If May goes back to the EU, asks for more time, but doesn't have a credible strategy of how the extension might break the deadlock, how likely will it be that the EU will take a collective deep breath and say 'sorry, but we need certainty and stability before upcoming elections and we'll take the economic hit. Good buy and best of British'
It seems as if the EU are in the driving seat now. Either we vote for Christmas, or the EU forces Christmas on March 29...
We'd see a resurgent UKIP, that's for sure...
On the plus side we are not going to have another referendum. It will be stopped without one.0 -
We have a hung parliament precisely because there is no majority amongst voters for hard Brexit as the 2017 GE proved, even May has realised thatPhilip_Thompson said:
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.Slackbladder said:
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.0 -
The Church of England was something new that didn't exist before the Tudors.rpjs said:
Restoration of institutions, not individuals. After all, the Cavalier Parliament couldn't exactly sew Charles I's head back on.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "James II"...IanB2 said:Revolution attempts in Britain generally lead back toward restoration; this time doesn't look any different.
0 -
Solving the Brexit issue on a stable basis may be beyond our current political structures. The voting system and party loyalties don't fit with it at all and sporadic direct public votes don't resolve matters either.0
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Delusion is the disease of the ultras.MaxPB said:
You're absolutely delusional. Once A50 is revoked we won't leave for 20-30 years or if the EU collapses.Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
Assuming they’re not secret Remainers.0 -
What are you talking about?rottenborough said:
And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.Slackbladder said:
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.Casino_Royale said:
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.rottenborough said:
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.Casino_Royale said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Two years ago who was talking about the backstop? The deal was rejected because the EU didn't compromise on the backstop, the deal would have passed with a backstop compromise. Two years ago that wasn't an issue so you're not making much sense.0 -
I echo this sentiment, entirely.Casino_Royale said:
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.rottenborough said:
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.Casino_Royale said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Except for the pluralisation of "Cox", which is clearly wrong. Oh well. I feel unbelievably let down.0 -
Remember when there was all that fuss about explicitly putting March 29th as the Brexit date in the Withdrawal Act? Might be a big problem now.0
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It requires either revocation or the agreement of the EU.Chris said:
Amending the leaving date doesn't require primary legislation.Jonathan said:
Assuming that amendments to the leaving date are tabled next week, leaving about eight normal sitting days before Bday, are there guerilla tactics that could talk it out?Sandpit said:
The Lords could certainly slow the process down appreciably, were they to be so inclined. Up against an immovable deadline, they’d probably be asked to sit through the night though, which I don’t imagine many of them would want.Jonathan said:
To stop no deal the government has to pass legislation. That is hard to do against the clock if the government is not functioning. Could the governments attempt to amend the leaving date be disrupted by guerilla tactics by Leavers in the govt or the backbenches?HYUFD said:
Who cares what Leadsom does, over half the Cabinet would resign without a No Deal vote.Jonathan said:
What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.HYUFD said:
No, as May has granted the voteJonathan said:Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.
Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.
The only plan Mogg seems to be succeeding in bringing closer is getting Brexit cancelled0 -
I don't know Hameln (excepting the Fable of course) but I do know Münster, a lovely small German city. I've just polished off a bottle of Münster Altbier, highly recommended.malcolmg said:
Have fun.0 -
Spain might be tempted to ask for something at this point.................Jonathan said:
Is there anyone in the 27 who would say no? Hope HMG have wargamed that scenario.williamglenn said:0 -
Then it won't happen.HYUFD said:
We have a hung parliament precisely because there is no majority amongst voters for hard Brexit as the 2017 GE proved, even May has realised thatPhilip_Thompson said:
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.Slackbladder said:
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???Philip_Thompson said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.0 -
The ultras were always going to find some way to vote against any real world approach to Brexit. Their whole mindset is to oppose, never to propose.Philip_Thompson said:
What are you talking about?rottenborough said:
And even more bizarrely, they have blown it up for a Brexit ideal that they did not themselves personally believe in or argue for two years ago. They have hardened as time passes, whipping each other into more and more ridiculous positions.Slackbladder said:
Indeed...There was a sensible Brexit out there, and the head bangers blew it all up.Casino_Royale said:
I thought I was hanging out with Michael Goves, Geoffrey Coxs, and Stephen Barclays, influenced by the pragmatism of Robert Smithsons.rottenborough said:
Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.Casino_Royale said:
Yep.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.
Quite incredible.
Quite predictable.
It turns out I was also hanging out with Andrew Lilicos, Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Bakers and Michael Fabricants, agitated by ultra ideologues and the likes of Aaron Banks.
Two years ago who was talking about the backstop? The deal was rejected because the EU didn't compromise on the backstop, the deal would have passed with a backstop compromise. Two years ago that wasn't an issue so you're not making much sense.0 -
We have a hung parliament precisely because there is no majority amongst voters for hard Brexit as the 2017 GE proved, even May has realised thatHYUFD said:
If they become Tory leader then they can go to the polls to get a majority.Philip_Thompson said:
No chance mate.... you think a no-dealer is ever going to command a majority in the house???Slackbladder said:
Better than this deal.DavidL said:
No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.Scrapheap_as_was said:If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?
The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.
If so we get a new PM and then they can invoked A50 again and this time plan all along for No Deal if we can't get an acceptable one, as this PM should have done from the start.
If die-hard Remainers walk out of the party to the Tiggers because a no-dealer has become PM then that makes it all the more possible that an elected majority will include a majority willing to countenance no deal. Especially no deal after 2 years of preparations which A50 gives us.
You still push this absurd myth that no-deal Brexit can somehow be “prepared for.” It can’t.0 -
Yes, but being politicians they only see the mandate they wish to see!Casino_Royale said:If all Tory MPs had loyally backed their Government the MV would have passed tonight.
By one vote.
I have got to the point of being utterly sick to death of this process. I can well understand why MPs would not want the deal as it leaves the UK with No teeth and subservient to the EU. At least if we are in the EU, we have some impact on the institutions...0 -
Maybe. If it was going to be that close who knows?Philip_Thompson said:
Every Tory would include the likes of Grieve.DavidL said:
So if every Tory had voted with their government the vote would have passed by 1? Bastards.rottenborough said:The last two weeks were well worth it:
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1105556461290225665
So even if every Leaver Tory had backed the Deal it would have still lost.0
