politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting opinion moves sharply against TMay’s chances of gettin

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1105551464112500736

Good lord, is that a genuine Ian Dunt tweet? Without a single swear word?

El_Capitano said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

May in full Headteacher mode now.

As the husband of a headteacher I demand you withdraw that slur.

If May were a headteacher, her school would be in special measures and would be forcibly taken over by an academy chain. You know, a large organisation that groups together several individual institutions within one overarching management, on occasion criticised for being remote and unresponsive, but it does at least bail out the institutions and stop them going embarrassingly tits-up.

Nope, the parallels escape me.

Full disclosure: I'm a school leader.

It did put me in mind of the speech to staff on an INSET day in September following a poor set of Key Stage 4 outcomes, in the year a full OFSTED inspection is expected.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting line from the PM:

Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

Is that a hint that the government will offer the House those two options? She's right on the substantive point, of course.

The Kyle amendment is perfect for her. She should have gone for that.

https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1105552424075436035

SouthamObserver said:

May mentioned a referendum just now. Corbyn did not.

Indeed, May could finally drive a stake through the ERG with a Remain v Deal referendum which MPs May well now vote for

Floater said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

This is completely delusional.

Yes completely. Putting forth a rejected deal without changes was completely delusional.

I think we just have to give up and accept that we are not leaving. This displacement activity is tiresome.

What do you think that does to the tory party?

Like thousands of others I really don't care if it falls into the dustbin of history. Along with Ozymandias.

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1105551464112500736

Yeah I thought he got it all wrong. He should have sympathised with Theresa May.
He seemed prepped to hammer her for going back on her promise on the votes, and then couldn't readjust.

ydoethur said:

Pro_Rata said:

In any event, this needs to reach the 'something else' stage by Thursday night. May simply cannot be allowed to go back to the EU with a proposal to discuss the backstop some more during an extension.

Whether an internal Tory coup, a VoNC/GE, a voluntary resignation by May or, heaven forbid, her coming up with an actual plan B, I don't too much care.

How about the 1316 Papal Conclave solution?

I think bricking the door up and allowing them only bread and water until they can make up what passes for their minds has a lot to recommend it at this moment.

How about bricking the door up and not allowing them the bread and water

Fortunately NewsThump have a screening test for new negotiators:


https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1105211895777292288?s=19

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1105552424075436035

It's good to know it's not just our lot that are useless.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.

Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve

Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.

The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers

rkrkrk said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1105551464112500736

Yeah I thought he got it all wrong. He should have sympathised with Theresa May.
He seemed prepped to hammer her for going back on her promise on the votes, and then couldn't readjust.

He just isn't very bright. As I have said before, the most useless leader of the opposition since the Marquis of Granby.

We now know who in the ERG were serious about Brexit and for whom it was all about posturing.

MikeL said:

Did May say which way she will vote tomorrow?

I think she implied she will vote against leaving without a deal.

She should abstain

Richard_Tyndall said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A free vote on the Tory side means 'no deal' is going to get rejected by some humongous margin. The key thing then will be the amendments on the extension, which I expect will include various possible durations, but the EU are now in control of the process.

Again the No Deal vote is utterly meaningless. The only vote that natters at this point is the extension time. And once we get to the end of that if we do not pass a deal or extend again then we will leave without a deal no matter how many times Parliament votes against it.

Surely it's incredibly meaningful if it passes, as it then becomes government policy to go down that route?

It's unlikely to, of course, with no more than 150-200 in favour of it - in which case it's a completely meaningless outcome.

I was wrong. I thought ERG would recognise last chance saloon when in one. I don’t understand.

The brexit on the table from May and Eu was a hard brexit, not a soft brexit. Brexiteers pushed it all the way to wring out every ounce of hard brexit. But then they didn’t cash in. They didn’t take the lolly. I don’t understand it. I really don’t understand how the ERG could take it all the way to get hardest brexit they are ever going to get, and not bank it. The moment to switch from poker face to walking out with the pot was there, and they didn’t take it. They are now alone at the table with no money on it. I don’t understand them.

In this years brexit ref it’s 20 million remain, 14 million or less for leave, . It’s a long way back for brexiteers from this moment. tell me I’m wrong. If science is true and unique golden brexit generation is dying off, There may never be a way back for brexit.

Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting line from the PM:

Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

First time May has suggested revoking as a possibility.

Congratulations, ERG.

Sandpit said:

OblitusSumMe said:

So how many Cabinet ministers on each side of the no deal vote?

That's why it's a free vote - a whip on either side would have seen dozens of resignations!

A free vote on the most important issue facing the country today is the ultimate abdication of responsibility on the part of the Tories. It becomes much harder to see how they can survive.

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

A free vote on the Tory side means 'no deal' is going to get rejected by some humongous margin. The key thing then will be the amendments on the extension, which I expect will include various possible durations, but the EU are now in control of the process.

The EU have been in control of the process since May took over.

The EU is stable and backed by 27 countries, the UK government has been totally chaotic throughout. Of course the EU have been in control from the start.

anothernick said:

Sandpit said:

OblitusSumMe said:

So how many Cabinet ministers on each side of the no deal vote?

That's why it's a free vote - a whip on either side would have seen dozens of resignations!

A free vote on the most important issue facing the country today is the ultimate abdication of responsibility on the part of the Tories. It becomes much harder to see how they can survive.

Surely such a vote shouldn't be whipped. If it's so important people should vote on what they think is right, not what the whip tells them is right.

OldKingCole said:

Floater said:

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DavidL said:

This is completely delusional.

Yes completely. Putting forth a rejected deal without changes was completely delusional.

I think we just have to give up and accept that we are not leaving. This displacement activity is tiresome.

What do you think that does to the tory party?

Like thousands of others I really don't care if it falls into the dustbin of history. Along with Ozymandias.

Look upon my clusterfuck, ye voters, and despair.

Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

RobD said:

El_Capitano said:

Three lines on my whip
Couldn't stem the bleeding
80 noes from ERG
Stopped May's deal succeeding

We're staying in, we're staying in, we're staying
Britain's staying in...

I doubt Britain is going to be a happy member of the EU.

Plus ça change.

dots said:

Brexit was hard won. It was there on the table for them to walk off with and they didn’t take it. I don’t understand.

Most of them are fucking idiots.

Jonathan said:

Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

No, as May has granted the vote

Jonathan said:

Would the ERG and other no dealers would be well advised to abstain tomorrow to delegitimise the result?

The ERG would not be well advised in any circumstances.

another_richard said:

We now know who in the ERG were serious about Brexit and for whom it was all about posturing.

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1105554660818120704

tottenhamWC said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Plaid says TM has offered deal, referendum or revoke when Corbyn witters on about his unicorn deal ignoring a referendum

Some achievement if Corbyn rains on remainers who then actually support May instead.....

On the night when the government can't pass their key policy and are in tatters, the Remain Twitter Media are all gunning for Corbyn! He really does have a good knack of annoying everyone.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.

Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve

Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.

The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers

Did you miss the Attorney General's statement this morning? The backstop was not dealt with yesterday.

The EU didn't compromise on the backstop, if they won't then why should we?

Yvette Cooper and Pete Wishart (SNP) amongst others trying to goad Leadsom into promising that there will be a govt bill to rule out no deal if there's a no-no-deal vote. Leadsom playing everything with a very dead bat.

HYUFD said:

Andrew Neil tells Mogg 'Will historians look back on tonight as the night you lost Brexit'

Seems like Mogg realised this already, been trying to row back. His merry band of nutters weren't for turning though.

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.

Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve

Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.

The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers

Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.

Perhaps not, but the fact that it would be impossible to permanently trap the UK in it against its will was very clearly demonstrated. They have quite possibly thrown away Brexit on a legal irrelevance.

Tusk says - not anything more we can do

Will consider a request to extend - but want a plan

SouthamObserver said:

I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.

Yep.

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

I am genuinely stunned. The ERG are morons. Utter morons.

Yep.

Never, in the history of politics, can there have been a better example of 'the best being the enemy of the good'.

Quite incredible.

Quite predictable.

No need to worry about needing an IDP for my Easter holiday in Germany then.

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Brexit is over as remainers takeover

I suspect the HoC will vote for a technical exit (stay in customs union and single market) or a 2nd referendum, neither of which the current administration will be able to enact.

With the EU seemingly clear no extension beyond May.

malcolmg said:

No need to worry about needing an IDP for my Easter holiday in Germany then.

Which part are you visiting?

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.

Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve

Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.

The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers

Did you miss the Attorney General's statement this morning? The backstop was not dealt with yesterday.

The EU didn't compromise on the backstop, if they won't then why should we?

Wrong, even Cox had said the EU 'had reduced the risk the UK would be trapped in the backstop.'

Rejection of the Deal makes a strong possibility the complete cancellation of Brexit

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1105557387002429441

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

No, as May has granted the vote

What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.

If a change in date needs to pass the Lords there is potential for a filibuster there, I think.

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

No, as May has granted the vote

What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.

If she resigned she'd be replaced within 24 hours.

Timed well 24hrs might be enough.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Elmar Brok just said no extension beyond EU elections and TM should revoke

EU are kings now

As predicted.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Interesting line from the PM:

Voting for an extension does not solve the problems the government faces. The EU will want to know if the UK wants to revoke article 50 or if it wants a referendum. Those are choices the house must now face.

Is that a hint that the government will offer the House those two options? She's right on the substantive point, of course.

What's "a referendum" though? Remain v Leave (whatever that is)? Remain v No Deal? Remain v Deal? Deal v No Deal? All three? What about Norway or Canada?

Remain vs Deal.

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Sigh. No it really isn't. What will be surrender is ending up staying in the EU because the headbangers were unwilling to compromise on anything but the purists of Brexits.

The deal without a backstop still wouldn't have been the purist of the Brexits. There were a number of other objections to the deal such as committing to spending billions without any trade agreement sorted first. However Brexiteers were willing to compromise on all their other objections so long as just one objection was resolved. The EU refused to compromise on anything.

Sorry but bricking up the English Channel would not have been enough for some in the ERG, if they tend up with the revocation of Article 50 and no Brexit at all it will be no more than they deserve

Sorry but that's ludicrous hyperbole. There was a vote on backing the deal if the backstop was dealt with and there were only 8 Tory headbanger MPs who opposed that. They were:

Heidi Allen, Guto Bebb, Ken Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Phillip Lee, Anne Marie Morris, Anna Soubry, Sarah Wollaston

Absolutely all of those are extremists but the only extremist on that list from the ERG is I believe Anne Marie Morris.

The backstop was effectively dealt with yesterday but the fanatics still would not compromise, now they will have to find out the hard way, if they will not compromise nor will Remainers

Not an iota of change to the backstop was changed.

Perhaps not, but the fact that it would be impossible to permanently trap the UK in it against its will was very clearly demonstrated. They have quite possibly thrown away Brexit on a legal irrelevance.

I am not so sure Nigel, it was just weaselly words , no change to them having us by the goolies. It was purely a legal; document confirming the other documents and clear by the way Juncker emphasised it, that it was irrelevant change at best.

Floater said:

malcolmg said:

No need to worry about needing an IDP for my Easter holiday in Germany then.

Which part are you visiting?

Lower Saxony , staying in Hamelin. Will visit Munster for Tank Museum and if possible get to Mohne Dam

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

Can the ERG etc filibusters removing no deal or changing the date in Brexit legislation? Genuine question. They will need to talk it out for about a week.

No, as May has granted the vote

What if the Leavers like Leadsom resigned from the cabinet In a week or two creating a crisis in the governments mechanics? Hard to schedule legislation in time if the government is not functioning.

Mogg looks like he has a plan. I wonder what it is.

Mogg's got nothing.

He's a posturer.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

If the Commons has a whopping majority against leaving with no deal, the Govt says well there's no better deal out there then presumably the logical next step of the Govt is to ask for an extension in order to either have another referendum and/or to put a vote to the commons for revocation of article 50 asap?

The options TMay laid out after losing tonight only lead one way? I don't see Brexit happening now.

No its over and the anti-democrats have won. May will be directed to revoke Article 50 within the next few days.

malcolmg said:

Floater said:

malcolmg said:

No need to worry about needing an IDP for my Easter holiday in Germany then.

Which part are you visiting?

Lower Saxony , staying in Hamelin.

Enjoy!

rottenborough said:

The last two weeks were well worth it:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1105556461290225665

3 joined the Tiggers though, so still voted against.

Presumably a stronger Labour vote against too.