politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now three CON MPs defect to the TIGers

dixiedean said:

Would it be fair to name them the Moderate Independent Liberal Faction?

LOL 😂

MaxPB said:

Outside of Europe, Allen and Soubry are pretty Conservative and agree with the party on almost every other issue.

Hopefully the PM gets the deal through in the next few weeks and we can finally see the back of the party split on Europe.

Would Con take them back after they've left?

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sarah Wollaston also good.

The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?

If one does then it becomes hard for the rest to resist, and that will dissuade other MPs from jumping.

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sarah Wollaston also good.

The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?

Exactly, you have posters like Anazina trying to take them seriously, but outside the Europhile bubble their constituents will look at them as cowards who are taking hypocrisy to new levels if they dont force a by-election. They make Mark Reckless look dignified in comparison.

GIN1138 said:

MaxPB said:

Outside of Europe, Allen and Soubry are pretty Conservative and agree with the party on almost every other issue.

Hopefully the PM gets the deal through in the next few weeks and we can finally see the back of the party split on Europe.

Would Con take them back after they've left?

Carswell wasn't let back in.

Anna Soubry laying it all out. Must be cathartic.

DennisBets said:

viewcode said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

Pause.

Thinks.

Do you know, that's a bloody good question. Well done you. I have no idea...

Maybe it seems the giant majority commanded by Blair is now being seen as the only way to get the centre back in power. Moderate Tories and Blairite Labour joining forces. Possibly a sensible leader off of a giant majority.

I don't think Jess Phillips is a Blairite ... if she leaves too, that is. All I know is that to a lot of my left-wing friends she talks far more sense than Milne, McDonnell or Corbyn; they'd like either her or Thornberry to be in charge.

In 'the other place', can we now expect Lords Heseltine, Gummer and Patten to resign and sit as cross-benchers?

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anna Soubry laying it all out. Must be cathartic.

She is a very honest sensible and grown up person. This is the time to listen...

Brexit is fucked.

Lets hope Soubry's integrity extends to giving her constituents a vote now the facts about their mp have changed.

BlUKIP from Soubry but i see her as a bit of a one issue Tigger unlike Allen and Woolaston

Respect for Soubry, 'infiltrated by Blue Kip Right Wingers!' She has just realised after 30 years

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cookie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I know it seems a bit of an outlandish suggestion, but is it possible that the TIGgers actually know what they are doing and have a coherent plan?

They seem to. It all looks strikingly coordinated so far, as does a lot of the media commentary coming from pre-defectors, eg:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098203877537652736

"I was born Labour and I thought I'd die Labour" - this sort of thing puts me right off. Makes it sound like a religion.

But for a some people, party politics is exactly that and why leaving is such a massive decision.

Mostly for men. Hence the TIGs so far are mostly female.

SunnyJim said:

Lets hope Soubry's integrity extends to giving her constituents a vote now the facts about their mp have changed.

Could you post this 50 more times, please? Just in case anyone missed the first 50 times you've posted it.

ERG unwilling to put a spokesman up for WATO. Truly the ends of days when they refuse a chance to spout off.

matt said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sarah Wollaston also good.

The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?

Give it a rest you tedious man child.

So you have no answer to his point. I thought this bunch were all about second votes on things when the circumstances change.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anna Soubry laying it all out. Must be cathartic.

Carswell and Reckless called by-elections.

dixiedean said:

ERG unwilling to put a spokesman up for WATO. Truly the ends of days when they refuse a chance to spout off.

I think Napoleon had a comment on this...

Pulpstar said:

GIN1138 said:

MaxPB said:

Outside of Europe, Allen and Soubry are pretty Conservative and agree with the party on almost every other issue.

Hopefully the PM gets the deal through in the next few weeks and we can finally see the back of the party split on Europe.

Would Con take them back after they've left?

Carswell wasn't let back in.

Churchill was though, sort of.

Has anyone else ever successfully re-ratted while an MP? (I can think of some who have subsequently, like Baroness Nicholson).

Brom said:

IanB2 said:

Brom said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sarah Wollaston also good.

The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?

Exactly, you have posters like Anazina trying to take them seriously, but outside the Europhile bubble their constituents will look at them as cowards who are taking hypocrisy to new levels if they dont force a by-election. They make Mark Reckless look dignified in comparison.

No responsible parliamentarian can resign their seat at a time when our country's future hangs in the balance. End of.

That's their excuse but let's be honest it's because they're lacking in integrity. If they cared about their country over their careers they could have left weeks or months ago.

Clearly you have your own agenda.

Richard_Tyndall said:

matt said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sarah Wollaston also good.

The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?

Give it a rest you tedious man child.

So you have no answer to his point. I thought this bunch were all about second votes on things when the circumstances change.

Their aim is precisely to change the circumstances before doing so.

Slackbladder said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anna Soubry laying it all out. Must be cathartic.

She is a very honest sensible and grown up person. This is the time to listen...

Brexit is fucked.

She is a hypocritical liar.

Heidi making the somewhat spurious claim that they didn't see this coming from Chuka on Monday and just fell in today!

Wulfrun_Phil said:

There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.

Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.

1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.

2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.

3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.

Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.

I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.

IanB2 said:

Brom said:

IanB2 said:

Brom said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sarah Wollaston also good.

The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?

Exactly, you have posters like Anazina trying to take them seriously, but outside the Europhile bubble their constituents will look at them as cowards who are taking hypocrisy to new levels if they dont force a by-election. They make Mark Reckless look dignified in comparison.

No responsible parliamentarian can resign their seat at a time when our country's future hangs in the balance. End of.

That's their excuse but let's be honest it's because they're lacking in integrity. If they cared about their country over their careers they could have left weeks or months ago.

Clearly you have your own agenda.

My agenda is that MPs work for the public. I guess your agenda is MPs work for only themselves.

bigjohnowls said:

Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record

Heidi Allen has joined today.

Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.

Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.

And she’s the one that’s had enough?

Yawn

bigjohnowls said:

Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record

Heidi Allen has joined today.

Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.

Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.

And she’s the one that’s had enough?

Kind of. Still more joy in heaven and all that.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1098218030616711170

OblitusSumMe said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.

Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.

1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.

2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.

3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.

Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.

I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.

And we overlook the human angle at our peril. The risk for a lot of ambitious younger Labour MPs is now that they'll be a lot older by the time Labour recovers from this body blow.

Carolus_Rex said:

Pulpstar said:

GIN1138 said:

MaxPB said:

Outside of Europe, Allen and Soubry are pretty Conservative and agree with the party on almost every other issue.

Hopefully the PM gets the deal through in the next few weeks and we can finally see the back of the party split on Europe.

Would Con take them back after they've left?

Carswell wasn't let back in.

Churchill was though, sort of.

Has anyone else ever successfully re-ratted while an MP? (I can think of some who have subsequently, like Baroness Nicholson).

Paul Marsden.

OblitusSumMe said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.

Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.

1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.

2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.

3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.

Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.

I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.

If that is what the TIGgers wanted, maybe they should have remembered Corbyn is even older than Mike Gapes and just waited for him to step down.

bigjohnowls said:

Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record

Heidi Allen has joined today.

Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.

Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.

And she’s the one that’s had enough?

Quite agree with this.

Same with Soubry.

These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

matt said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sarah Wollaston also good.

The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?

Give it a rest you tedious man child.

So you have no answer to his point. I thought this bunch were all about second votes on things when the circumstances change.

Their aim is precisely to change the circumstances before doing so.

The circumstances have already changed. Wollaston and Soubry stood in 2017 explicitly on supporting Brexit. They have then voted against a Brexit Deal and now use that as an excuse to oppose Brexit entirely. I mean I know MPs are not the most honest of people but these two really are utter hypocrites.

Surely by leaving the party they have resolved some of that problem Richard?

IanB2 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.

Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.

1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.

2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.

3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.

Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.

I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.

And we overlook the human angle at our peril. The risk for a lot of ambitious younger Labour MPs is now that they'll be a lot older by the time Labour recovers from this body blow.

Which would explain why Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed jumped ship and a few who stood down in 2017.

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Slackbladder said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anna Soubry laying it all out. Must be cathartic.

She is a very honest sensible and grown up person. This is the time to listen...

Brexit is fucked.

She is a hypocritical liar.

Clearly has you rattled, Richard.

Yep. As I said this week, we could be seeing the start of the death of Brexit.

Brom said:

TGOHF said:

Brom said:

Nigelb said:

Brom said:

IanB2 said:

Brom said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sarah Wollaston also good.

The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?

Exactly, you have posters like Anazina trying to take them seriously, but outside the Europhile bubble their constituents will look at them as cowards who are taking hypocrisy to new levels if they dont force a by-election. They make Mark Reckless look dignified in comparison.

No responsible parliamentarian can resign their seat at a time when our country's future hangs in the balance. End of.

That's their excuse but let's be honest it's because they're lacking in integrity. If they cared about their country over their careers they could have left weeks or months ago.

Let's be honest, you would only be satisfied if they were to adopt tactics of deliberate self-sabotage.

If they all won by-elections I'd hold my hand up and say this was a credible party that might hold the balance of power. But it's easy to see why they look rather frit at this moment.

Don't underestimate that they seem to be thrilling almost universally the entire metro-media luvvie set.

It's Cleggasm II - with frilly Remain knickers.

No hard questions from the media, TIG are the party run by the media for the media. I'm certain they'll be making huge waves outside the M25 with their own unique brand of hypocrisy.

Wow. The media conspiracy paranoia bile spouts up after just two and a half days.

The Tiggers must be on to a winner.

Martin_Kinsella said:

IanB2 said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.

Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.

1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.

2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.

3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.

Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.

I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.

And we overlook the human angle at our peril. The risk for a lot of ambitious younger Labour MPs is now that they'll be a lot older by the time Labour recovers from this body blow.

Which would explain why Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed jumped ship and a few who stood down in 2017.

And why I think Streeting will jump, despite what he is saying now. He's led the campaign against anti-semitism within Labour, and has just lost a load of his allies.

_Anazina_ said:

Brom said:

TGOHF said:

Brom said:

Nigelb said:

Brom said:

IanB2 said:

Brom said:

GIN1138 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Sarah Wollaston also good.

The optics of all these intelligent women leaving parties full of braying shouty wankers isn't lost on me, and won't be on lots of female voters.

Yet they all refuse to call by elections and allow their constituents to have their say on their decision?

Exactly, you have posters like Anazina trying to take them seriously, but outside the Europhile bubble their constituents will look at them as cowards who are taking hypocrisy to new levels if they dont force a by-election. They make Mark Reckless look dignified in comparison.

No responsible parliamentarian can resign their seat at a time when our country's future hangs in the balance. End of.

That's their excuse but let's be honest it's because they're lacking in integrity. If they cared about their country over their careers they could have left weeks or months ago.

Let's be honest, you would only be satisfied if they were to adopt tactics of deliberate self-sabotage.

If they all won by-elections I'd hold my hand up and say this was a credible party that might hold the balance of power. But it's easy to see why they look rather frit at this moment.

Don't underestimate that they seem to be thrilling almost universally the entire metro-media luvvie set.

It's Cleggasm II - with frilly Remain knickers.

No hard questions from the media, TIG are the party run by the media for the media. I'm certain they'll be making huge waves outside the M25 with their own unique brand of hypocrisy.

Wow. The media conspiracy paranoia bile spouts up after just two and a half days.

The Tiggers must be on to a winner.

Well yesterday the true believers were pushing a false narrative about the Tiggers using tax havens (because they don't understand how the internet works) and of course Israeli funding.

DecrepitJohnL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.

Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.

1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.

2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.

3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.

Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.

I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.

If that is what the TIGgers wanted, maybe they should have remembered Corbyn is even older than Mike Gapes and just waited for him to step down.

But look at the membership. Why would Labour's next leader be much different from the current one. As long as the far left retain a grip on Labour, the methods and attitudes that come with the far left will be tolerated within the party - and if it lasts long enough, will develop into the normal culture.

IanB2 said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Slackbladder said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Anna Soubry laying it all out. Must be cathartic.

She is a very honest sensible and grown up person. This is the time to listen...

Brexit is fucked.

She is a hypocritical liar.

Clearly has you rattled, Richard.

Yep. As I said this week, we could be seeing the start of the death of Brexit.

Brexit will die once we experience a few weeks of sustained No Deal.

Martin_Kinsella said:

bigjohnowls said:

Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record

Heidi Allen has joined today.

Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.

Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.

And she’s the one that’s had enough?

Quite agree with this.

Same with Soubry.

These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.

Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?

Heidi Allen stuck a much better tone than Soubry.

david_herdson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.

Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.

1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.

2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.

3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.

Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.

I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.

If that is what the TIGgers wanted, maybe they should have remembered Corbyn is even older than Mike Gapes and just waited for him to step down.

But look at the membership. Why would Labour's next leader be much different from the current one. As long as the far left retain a grip on Labour, the methods and attitudes that come with the far left will be tolerated within the party - and if it lasts long enough, will develop into the normal culture.

I do think it's fair to say that a lot of Corbyn's vote is personal rather than ideological. The reason he has not already stepped down from a job he clearly hates is that there is no obvious successor from his wing of the party.

SunnyJim said:

Anna doubling down on the righteousness of austerity.

That must turn a lot of Centrists off surely

Danny565 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record

Heidi Allen has joined today.

Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.

Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.

And she’s the one that’s had enough?

To be fair, she has stuck her neck out on welfare issues a few times over the years and gone against the party, and I feel like she's genuinely been changing her mind as she saw more of the "real world".

It's Soubry who'll be the issue, since she doesn't seem to have remotely changed her mind on anything, and has left behind a whole load of videos from Question Time and the like with her cheerleading for various Tory austerity policies.

Indeed

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

There is also quite a significant chance that Tom Watson will lead a huge block of MPs out in due course.

Trying to put myself in Tom Watson's shoes I think I can see three potential futures.

1. TIG emulates the SDP closely. It damages Labour, but not sufficiently to replace it, handing the Tories a landslide majority and at least another decade in government. However, the experience is chastening for Labour, which comes to its senses, puts its house in order and manages to bring moderate left politics back into government.

2. As for 1, but the Corbynites retain a death grip on the Labour Party. This prevents any revival on the Centre-Left indefinitely.

3. TIG manages to eclipse the Labour Party to present an alternative government to the Conservatives that is at least a hair's breadth less right-wing - but it is not one with close ties to the unions and this probably leads to the overall balance of politics shifting to the right.

Clearly Tom Watson would like to see some variation on 1 happen - albeit as quickly as possible, rather than taking 16 years from split to government. 2 is the nightmare scenario. The risk for Tom Watson is that his leading a chunk of MPs out of the party makes 2 more likely - by weakening the moderates within Labour - while 3 is still only an outside shot.

I think the more likely course is that Tom Watson continues to pursue 1, though perhaps with more vigour. Perhaps he would table a no confidence vote in Corbyn's leadership, arguing that he had failed to prevent anti-semitism from driving out Labour MPs. One last attempt to save the Party.

If that is what the TIGgers wanted, maybe they should have remembered Corbyn is even older than Mike Gapes and just waited for him to step down.

But look at the membership. Why would Labour's next leader be much different from the current one. As long as the far left retain a grip on Labour, the methods and attitudes that come with the far left will be tolerated within the party - and if it lasts long enough, will develop into the normal culture.

I do think it's fair to say that a lot of Corbyn's vote is personal rather than ideological. The reason he has not already stepped down from a job he clearly hates is that there is no obvious successor from his wing of the party.

Have you joined, yet, SO? Surely you must tell us that you have.

DennisBets said:

IanB2 said:

DennisBets said:

Martin_Kinsella said:

bigjohnowls said:

Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record

Heidi Allen has joined today.

Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.

Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.

And she’s the one that’s had enough?

Quite agree with this.

Same with Soubry.

These are unashamed flag wavers for austerity.

Agreed. The whole lot of them shaped the great austerity blag, bet the Evening Standard supports them. Is it terribly unfair to liken this to the day Rudolph Hess crash landed in Scotland while apologising for the role of his nation in the war?

We welcome you newbie Corbynites to the site.

This was meant from both sides. I voted Milliband, Burnham and Smith so question your assumption of Corbynism. Also i've been lurking and posting since 2010 so not quite a newbie

Looking forward to your next post some time in mid-March?

Danny565 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Problem for Tiggers is their voting records are public record

Heidi Allen has joined today.

Heidi sheds tears for the poor and disabled people, saying she’s “had enough”.

Heidi voted to cut benefits 16 times.

And she’s the one that’s had enough?

To be fair, she has stuck her neck out on welfare issues a few times over the years and gone against the party, and I feel like she's genuinely been changing her mind as she saw more of the "real world".

It's Soubry who'll be the issue, since she doesn't seem to have remotely changed her mind on anything, and has left behind a whole load of videos from Question Time and the like with her cheerleading for various Tory austerity policies.

I think this is Westminster bubble stuff. I've no doubt that the Corbynite social media cheerleaders will happily tweet and share this stuff but will it cut through to the general public? I doubt it.

Besides, Corbyn is an antisemitic-tolerating friend of terrorists so the "you've done iffy things in the past" isn't a cost-free card to play.

2 other policies stumps Soubry

Woolaston burning injustices is a good one

https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/1098222708029046784