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And you might have waited for the previous thread to break 1000....

So many questions, so few answers.
Meanwhile, 946 hours to Brexit.

Caroline Lucas as a centrist?

Center of what exactly?

DonTsInferno_ said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be expected, though I would have thought that if it takes off it will probably pull as many Conservative Remainers as erstwhile Labour loyalists.

Conservative MPs defecting maybe, Conservative voters...?

Depends. Who follows May? The membership will choose the most right wing option put to them.

DonTsInferno_ said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be expected, though I would have thought that if it takes off it will probably pull as many Conservative Remainers as erstwhile Labour loyalists.

Conservative MPs defecting maybe, Conservative voters...?

What do you think the Conservative party offers Remain voters beyond the prospect of keeping out Jeremy Corbyn?

https://twitter.com/adamlangleben/status/1097480335124824065

Philip_Thompson said:

Caroline Lucas as a centrist?

Center of what exactly?

Brighton.

Nigelb said:

And you might have waited for the previous thread to break 1000....

It has

AlastairMeeks said:

DonTsInferno_ said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be expected, though I would have thought that if it takes off it will probably pull as many Conservative Remainers as erstwhile Labour loyalists.

Conservative MPs defecting maybe, Conservative voters...?

What do you think the Conservative party offers Remain voters beyond the prospect of keeping out Jeremy Corbyn?

Deselections ?

viewcode said:

Incidentally my brief point FPT is unanswered: does this group get funding without being a formal party?

Short money is based on party votes at the previous election

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/adamlangleben/status/1097480335124824065

Who?

More interesting will be how many actually serving councillors follow the MPs' lead

Political position Centre
Colours Grey

Paul Brand, ITV's political correspondent, got 5 of the 7 right on Friday:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-02-15/could-a-seemingly-inevitable-split-in-the-labour-party-be-the-next-outcome-of-brexit/

twistedfirestopper3 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DonTsInferno_ said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be expected, though I would have thought that if it takes off it will probably pull as many Conservative Remainers as erstwhile Labour loyalists.

Conservative MPs defecting maybe, Conservative voters...?

What do you think the Conservative party offers Remain voters beyond the prospect of keeping out Jeremy Corbyn?

Maybe we're staying as a 2 party system, but instead of Left/Right it'll be Pro/Anti EU.
Deep joy.

In the long term I wonder if it may actually become Young v Old, though Pro/Anti EU is a decent proxy for now

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1097485609894137856

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1097485609894137856

How long until he mentions you know who?

Fysics_Teacher said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DonTsInferno_ said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be expected, though I would have thought that if it takes off it will probably pull as many Conservative Remainers as erstwhile Labour loyalists.

Conservative MPs defecting maybe, Conservative voters...?

What do you think the Conservative party offers Remain voters beyond the prospect of keeping out Jeremy Corbyn?

Given that Corbyn is also a leaver, that is enough.

Perhaps no longer.

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1097486054335148032

bigjohnowls said:

How many of 7 had already lost a VONC from their CLPs

CL - Yes
CU - Yes
AS - Yes
GS - Yes
AC - ?
LB - 2 tabled but withdrawn
MG - ?

And how’s that working out for Labour ?

rawzer said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DonTsInferno_ said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be expected, though I would have thought that if it takes off it will probably pull as many Conservative Remainers as erstwhile Labour loyalists.

Conservative MPs defecting maybe, Conservative voters...?

What do you think the Conservative party offers Remain voters beyond the prospect of keeping out Jeremy Corbyn?

Maybe we're staying as a 2 party system, but instead of Left/Right it'll be Pro/Anti EU.
Deep joy.

In the long term I wonder if it may actually become Young v Old, though Pro/Anti EU is a decent proxy for now

The short term is anybody's guess, until brexit is done at any rate.

In the long term, I would expect a return to more traditional left/right politics with the real battle ground in the centre. I would hope that the more extremes of left and right are sidelined once the brexit dust has settled.

What a fantastic day for the Conservative Party. Nice one Jeremy!

That said, Corbyn gets his wish for perpetual opposition. Power without responsibility!

viewcode said:

Incidentally my brief point FPT is unanswered: does this group get funding without being a formal party?

You’d certainly need to be a registered party to claim Short Money after an election, when it’s allocated for the whole Parliament - what might happen before that is mostly at the discretion of the Speaker. Labour would certainly argue that 150 independent MPs don’t have the right to call themselves the Official Opposition, for example.

I very much doubt Boles and Grieve would join this. At the end of the day, they’re not social democrats.

Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston I could absolutely see jumping.

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at the TIG seats individually one sticks out,

Penistone and Stocksbridge - ultramarginal

Stockport, very safe Labour
Wavertree, ultrasafe Labour
Ilford South, ultrasafe Labour
Nottingham East, very very safe Labour
Luton South, very safe Labour
Streatham, ultrasafe Labour

So only Smith might give the Tories a seat if she runs next time round; I'd expect the rest to be safe Labour holds even if the MPs ran as independents. I doubt any of them can win without the Labour mark.

Useless fact: all of those seats with Conservative until 1979 and/or 1983.

Their voters moved out to the burbs and shires.

https://twitter.com/JusticeTyrwhit/status/1097486856575467520

Nigelb said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DonTsInferno_ said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be expected, though I would have thought that if it takes off it will probably pull as many Conservative Remainers as erstwhile Labour loyalists.

Conservative MPs defecting maybe, Conservative voters...?

What do you think the Conservative party offers Remain voters beyond the prospect of keeping out Jeremy Corbyn?

Given that Corbyn is also a leaver, that is enough.

Perhaps no longer.

I voted remain reluctantly and would be very unhappy with a “we can’t leave because it’s too difficult” outcome. A party whose sole aim was to reverse Brexit would not get my vote unless, with a certain irony I admit, I knew it would get rid of my MP while running no risk of forming a government.

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at the TIG seats individually one sticks out,

Penistone and Stocksbridge - ultramarginal

Stockport, very safe Labour
Wavertree, ultrasafe Labour
Ilford South, ultrasafe Labour
Nottingham East, very very safe Labour
Luton South, very safe Labour
Streatham, ultrasafe Labour

So only Smith might give the Tories a seat if she runs next time round; I'd expect the rest to be safe Labour holds even if the MPs ran as independents. I doubt any of them can win without the Labour mark.

Useless fact: all of those seats with Conservative until 1979 and/or 1983.

Simply a combination of the changing demographics of urban Britain together with the Tories pandering toward the shires.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1097486054335148032

“You know who else used to get abuse for doing something he believed in..?”

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at the TIG seats individually one sticks out,

Penistone and Stocksbridge - ultramarginal

Stockport, very safe Labour
Wavertree, ultrasafe Labour
Ilford South, ultrasafe Labour
Nottingham East, very very safe Labour
Luton South, very safe Labour
Streatham, ultrasafe Labour

So only Smith might give the Tories a seat if she runs next time round; I'd expect the rest to be safe Labour holds even if the MPs ran as independents. I doubt any of them can win without the Labour mark.

I thought they said that they wouldn't stand in their existing constituencies, but in marginal seats?

Hmm - Whats the point of that ? TIG start on precisely 0 votes in each seat, plenty of potential targets are already Lib Dem territory (OXWAB).
Finchley and Golders Green might be worth a pop I suppose, but no seat is marginal wrt TIG at the moment

I think their only market is wealthy liberals/lefties - but those people are disproportionately concentrated in ultra-safe Labour seats.

One of the few exceptions is Kensington - the "Independents" might have an outside chance of sneaking a win on a 3-way split vote there.

Casino_Royale said:

I very much doubt Boles and Grieve would join this. At the end of the day, they’re not social democrats.

Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston I could absolutely see jumping.

It looks very Coalition politics to me. I would have thought a number of liberal Conservatives would be quite comfortable with it.

Nigelb said:

bigjohnowls said:

How many of 7 had already lost a VONC from their CLPs

CL - Yes
CU - Yes
AS - Yes
GS - Yes
AC - ?
LB - 2 tabled but withdrawn
MG - ?

And how’s that working out for Labour ?

The minimum Lab should expect is that their elected representatives should be able to say is that they would prefer a Lab Govt under Jezza than a Tory one under TM.

Unfortunately the not so magnificent 7 even couldnt meet this minimum requirement.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1097486054335148032

Not *quite* the same, one would imagine.

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1097488697350594565

Mexicanpete said:

What a fantastic day for the Conservative Party. Nice one Jeremy!

That said, Corbyn gets his wish for perpetual opposition. Power without responsibility!

I don't agree. It's impossible to know what twists and turns this will take. What we know is that most voters are somewhere in the centre but both major party leaderships are at the extreme. (The Tories more than Labour). This could well kill the Labour Party but equally it could be irrelevant.

Danny565 said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at the TIG seats individually one sticks out,

Penistone and Stocksbridge - ultramarginal

Stockport, very safe Labour
Wavertree, ultrasafe Labour
Ilford South, ultrasafe Labour
Nottingham East, very very safe Labour
Luton South, very safe Labour
Streatham, ultrasafe Labour

So only Smith might give the Tories a seat if she runs next time round; I'd expect the rest to be safe Labour holds even if the MPs ran as independents. I doubt any of them can win without the Labour mark.

I thought they said that they wouldn't stand in their existing constituencies, but in marginal seats?

Hmm - Whats the point of that ? TIG start on precisely 0 votes in each seat, plenty of potential targets are already Lib Dem territory (OXWAB).
Finchley and Golders Green might be worth a pop I suppose, but no seat is marginal wrt TIG at the moment

I think their only market is wealthy liberals/lefties - but those people are disproportionately concentrated in ultra-safe Labour seats.

One of the few exceptions is Kensington - the "Independents" might have an outside chance of sneaking a win on a 3-way split vote there.

I think you underestimate how utterly sick of blue red and yellow Brexit, expenses etc have made people. Swamp draining incoming

The events of this morning have reinforced what I have been thinking for some time - that despite the cchaos that has been the government in recent times, Theresa May could end up in an unbelievably strong position in a couple of months.

Furthermore, as someone who believes that a deal is by far the best (or least worst) outcome, I feel that May is finally going about this the right way. I have tried to "war game" her strategy and have concluded the following:

1. Her ultimate goal is to put a deal to parliament with a compromise on the backstop. Thanks to the Brady amendment, she knows that this would have parliamentary backing and she is therefore able to tell the EU in clear terms what they need to do.

2. As can be seen from the EU reaction to the prospect of No Deal in recent weeks, putting forward No Deal as the only alternative gives the EU incentive to negotiate in a collaborative manner.

3. Even in the event that she is unable to gain any kind of concession from the EU, the Spelman Amendment shows that there is a parliamentary majority against No Deal, so if she were to present any deal to parliament at the last minute with No Deal as the only alternative then she is also likely to win.

4. While an extension to pass various bills may be required once a deal is agreed, an extension to negotiate a deal is both pointless (as we are only arguing one detail) and counterproductive, as unless she gets a full concession from the EU she needs the time pressure to get her deal through.

5. The above only works if No Deal is the alternative position. Removing No Deal removes all incentive for the EU to negotiate collaboratively and allows MPs hoping to remain to vote it down.

6. If all of the above fails the EU is sure to grant an extension in order for both sides to avoid No Deal. I do not think for a minute that May is happy to allow No Deal to happen and may be forced down the referendum route.

For those reasons, so long as she sticks to her negotiating principles, I expect a deal to be passed, which while flawed, is already seen as by far the least worst option in polls. A deal will, I expect, keep the tory party together while the labour party is hopelessly split.

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

I very much doubt Boles and Grieve would join this. At the end of the day, they’re not social democrats.

Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston I could absolutely see jumping.

It looks very Coalition politics to me. I would have thought a number of liberal Conservatives would be quite comfortable with it.

More Cameroon/Blairite motherhood and apple pie at first glance.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

bigjohnowls said:

How many of 7 had already lost a VONC from their CLPs

CL - Yes
CU - Yes
AS - Yes
GS - Yes
AC - ?
LB - 2 tabled but withdrawn
MG - ?

And how’s that working out for Labour ?

That’s what pushed them.

What else had they to lose?

Now apply that to the Conservative party's own jihad against Remain-sympathising MPs and rethink who might defect.

It’s naked entryism by Aaron Banks and Leave.EU with the subtlety of a hand grenade on a maternity ward.

The Conservative Party are very wise to it.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

bigjohnowls said:

How many of 7 had already lost a VONC from their CLPs

CL - Yes
CU - Yes
AS - Yes
GS - Yes
AC - ?
LB - 2 tabled but withdrawn
MG - ?

And how’s that working out for Labour ?

That’s what pushed them.

What else had they to lose?

Now apply that to the Conservative party's own jihad against Remain-sympathising MPs and rethink who might defect.

What Conservative Party jihad?

I've seen stirring by loons like Banks who aren't even Tories. Nothing by actual Tories.

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

bigjohnowls said:

How many of 7 had already lost a VONC from their CLPs

CL - Yes
CU - Yes
AS - Yes
GS - Yes
AC - ?
LB - 2 tabled but withdrawn
MG - ?

And how’s that working out for Labour ?

That’s what pushed them.

What else had they to lose?

Now apply that to the Conservative party's own jihad against Remain-sympathising MPs and rethink who might defect.

It’s naked entryism by Aaron Banks and Leave.EU with the subtlety of a hand grenade on a maternity ward.

The Conservative Party are very wise to it.

Are they? It seems to be working.

GreenHeron said:

The events of this morning have reinforced what I have been thinking for some time - that despite the cchaos that has been the government in recent times, Theresa May could end up in an unbelievably strong position in a couple of months.

Furthermore, as someone who believes that a deal is by far the best (or least worst) outcome, I feel that May is finally going about this the right way. I have tried to "war game" her strategy and have concluded the following:

1. Her ultimate goal is to put a deal to parliament with a compromise on the backstop. Thanks to the Brady amendment, she knows that this would have parliamentary backing and she is therefore able to tell the EU in clear terms what they need to do.

2. As can be seen from the EU reaction to the prospect of No Deal in recent weeks, putting forward No Deal as the only alternative gives the EU incentive to negotiate in a collaborative manner.

3. Even in the event that she is unable to gain any kind of concession from the EU, the Spelman Amendment shows that there is a parliamentary majority against No Deal, so if she were to present any deal to parliament at the last minute with No Deal as the only alternative then she is also likely to win.

4. While an extension to pass various bills may be required once a deal is agreed, an extension to negotiate a deal is both pointless (as we are only arguing one detail) and counterproductive, as unless she gets a full concession from the EU she needs the time pressure to get her deal through.

5. The above only works if No Deal is the alternative position. Removing No Deal removes all incentive for the EU to negotiate collaboratively and allows MPs hoping to remain to vote it down.

6. If all of the above fails the EU is sure to grant an extension in order for both sides to avoid No Deal. I do not think for a minute that May is happy to allow No Deal to happen and may be forced down the referendum route.

For those reasons, so long as she sticks to her negotiating principles, I expect a deal to be passed, which while flawed, is already seen as by far the least worst option in polls. A deal will, I expect, keep the tory party together while the labour party is hopelessly split.

Agree 99%.

The 1% where I don't is on your point 6.

You think her last resort is to offer REF2. I think it is to call a GE.

Shirley Williams being interviewed on the World At One.

Casino_Royale said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Casino_Royale said:

I very much doubt Boles and Grieve would join this. At the end of the day, they’re not social democrats.

Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston I could absolutely see jumping.

It looks very Coalition politics to me. I would have thought a number of liberal Conservatives would be quite comfortable with it.

Boles has said he’s a national liberal in the past; I doubt he’d agree with this group on taxation or radical public services reform.

Grieve is actually rather socially and fiscally conservative, if rather liberal on crime & justice and one nation on everything else, including the EU.

If the "deselect Boles" train starts gathering pace, then he may decide that there are worse options than joining a new centrist group and helping shape it. End of the day, most of the current "independent Labour" MPs were facing deselection bids and effectively jumped before being pushed. I see no reason why that logic shouldn't translate over to the Government benches.

DonTsInferno_ said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DonTsInferno_ said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To be expected, though I would have thought that if it takes off it will probably pull as many Conservative Remainers as erstwhile Labour loyalists.

Conservative MPs defecting maybe, Conservative voters...?

What do you think the Conservative party offers Remain voters beyond the prospect of keeping out Jeremy Corbyn?

I’d say a lot of Conservative Remain voters were more Conservative than Remain, accept we are leaving and would rather a Conservative govt than risk a Labour one by voting for people whose sole aim is stopping Brexit.

That looks like wishful thinking to me, straight from the school that thinks Labour Leavers are magically more Leavers than Labour but Conservative Remainers prioritise party loyalty. But polling shows that voters' Brexit identity is self-perceived to be stronger than their party identity and that a plurality of voters do not see a party that represents them.

Conservative Remainers that have stuck with the Conservative party today are either doing so out of fear of Jeremy Corbyn or Stockholm Syndrome.

Don't know for certain but IF these seven MPs won't vote for a GE (ie against Govt in VONC) then Govt can survive without the DUP.

I guess TMay may not want to rely on them but it at least potentially changes the dynamics.

The Govt's deal could potentially pass and the DUP wouldn't be able to bring down the Govt.

Fysics_Teacher said:

If the Seven did stand down to face bye-elections, what would that do to the parliamentary arithmetic in the run up to Brexit? Is this a good reason why they won’t?

Short answer, 7 Labour holds. Penistone is more interesting than the others (Possible outside chance of a Tory gain), as standing independents though I think they'd all probably lose.

justin124 said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

Looking at the TIG seats individually one sticks out,

Penistone and Stocksbridge - ultramarginal

Stockport, very safe Labour
Wavertree, ultrasafe Labour
Ilford South, ultrasafe Labour
Nottingham East, very very safe Labour
Luton South, very safe Labour
Streatham, ultrasafe Labour

So only Smith might give the Tories a seat if she runs next time round; I'd expect the rest to be safe Labour holds even if the MPs ran as independents. I doubt any of them can win without the Labour mark.

Useless fact: all of those seats with Conservative until 1979 and/or 1983.

Bar Nottingham East the seats were Tory-held until 1992 - though boundaries have changed.Wavertree disappeared in 1983 but was brought back as a bigger seat in 1997.

The Tories probably would have lost Wavertree in 1983 or 1987 given the big anti-Tory swing in Liverpool at that time.

https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1097490630526361600