“They stood as Labour MPs on a platform in the general election 18 months ago. All of them got massive increases in their majorities. I have to tell them it wasn’t because of their own personal charisma. It was because of a manifesto which promised to respect the 2016 referendum and take us out of Europe, so all of their heartbreak sounds a little bit hollow.”
Ah, so that's the explanation for the 2017 increase in the Labour vote. It was a vote against staying in the EU. Glad we've got that cleared up.
Yesterday he was saying he wished those about to leave would hurry up and leave so he should be happy.
Go on, attack her, Attack her violently and viciously. That will create more defectors...
This could be just the beginning of Labour's breakdown. They may not splinter, they might shatter.
Delicious.
If Labour disintegrates, there must be a fair chance the Conservatives would also do so. What's left to hold them together if Labour are no longer a threat?
Go on, attack her, Attack her violently and viciously. That will create more defectors...
This could be just the beginning of Labour's breakdown. They may not splinter, they might shatter.
Delicious.
If Labour disintegrates, there must be a fair chance the Conservatives would also do so. What's left to hold them together if Labour are no longer a threat?
Well, then chance to be a minister in a government with a 200-seat majority would be quite attractive.
Sources said that Honda was likely to relocate the manufacturing capability at Swindon to its home market of Japan. The ability to guarantee tariff-free exports to the EU is understood to have been among the factors persuading the company of the merits of its decision. It was unclear whether the Government securing a wide-ranging free trade deal with the EU would have any impact on the company's decision.
Outside of their Brexit voting, look at rest of the voting patterns of the possible Conservative defectors. They really don't look like easy bed-fellows for the Seven.
That's why I think it's much more likely that any Tory splitters won't join this group, but will sit as independents. They can 'caucus' with the TIGers on specific issues - especially Brexit - and vote with the Tories on others.
Go on, attack her, Attack her violently and viciously. That will create more defectors...
This could be just the beginning of Labour's breakdown. They may not splinter, they might shatter.
Delicious.
If Labour disintegrates, there must be a fair chance the Conservatives would also do so. What's left to hold them together if Labour are no longer a threat?
Go on, attack her, Attack her violently and viciously. That will create more defectors...
This could be just the beginning of Labour's breakdown. They may not splinter, they might shatter.
Delicious.
If Labour disintegrates, there must be a fair chance the Conservatives would also do so. What's left to hold them together if Labour are no longer a threat?
Brexit.
There's a big divide between those who think that any agreement with the EU is a deal with the devil, and the rest, and a small divide between those who are opposed to leaving the EU at all and the rest.
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
Possibly. Ironically, it would have happened regardless of the referendum result.
I think that's the important thing here, it's a shock until you think about it for 30 seconds and remember how secondary that factory is for Honda compared to Sunderland for Nissan and Derby for Toyota..
Most people will however see it as bad news for Brexit which may have Honda's desired effect (especially as it gives them political cover)
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. It is true that the continued uncertainty of whether we will have our own FTA with the EU will not have helped but the reality is that the competitive advantage the UK had as a "manufacturer" in the EU has been negotiated away in the EU deal. What our position was on this would be interesting. My guess, FWIW, is that the default almost irrebutable presumption that free trade is good for us would have prevailed without a lot of thought about the practical consequences.
Sources said that Honda was likely to relocate the manufacturing capability at Swindon to its home market of Japan. The ability to guarantee tariff-free exports to the EU is understood to have been among the factors persuading the company of the merits of its decision. It was unclear whether the Government securing a wide-ranging free trade deal with the EU would have any impact on the company's decision.
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
The frankly gobsmacking thing is that people who voted Leave didn't foresee the negative consequences of their vote. I get the it's a price worth paying line. But the sheer idiocy of the "well that changes everything, you can knock me down with a feather" response is extraordinary.
Sources said that Honda was likely to relocate the manufacturing capability at Swindon to its home market of Japan. The ability to guarantee tariff-free exports to the EU is understood to have been among the factors persuading the company of the merits of its decision. It was unclear whether the Government securing a wide-ranging free trade deal with the EU would have any impact on the company's decision.
Swindon voted leave. Chickens coming home to roost.
It's not fashionable to blame people for the decisions they make. The Sun will be making a deal for Shamima Begum's story as we speak. I'd be surprised if it's less than £75,000.
Outside of their Brexit voting, look at rest of the voting patterns of the possible Conservative defectors. They really don't look like easy bed-fellows for the Seven.
That's why I think it's much more likely that any Tory splitters won't join this group, but will sit as independents. They can 'caucus' with the TIGers on specific issues - especially Brexit - and vote with the Tories on others.
That would be best all around. And hopefully it will lead us kicking and screaming to a form of PR that ensures the views of the British people are more accurately reflected in Parliament.
Outside of their Brexit voting, look at rest of the voting patterns of the possible Conservative defectors. They really don't look like easy bed-fellows for the Seven.
That's why I think it's much more likely that any Tory splitters won't join this group, but will sit as independents. They can 'caucus' with the TIGers on specific issues - especially Brexit - and vote with the Tories on others.
Why bother splitting? They're already ignoring the Tory whip on Brexit so what've they got to gain by splitting?
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. [snip]
No, that's wrong. Yes, the EU deal with Japan make it a bit more attractive to build the cars in Japan, but that's only half the story: the UK leaving the EU makes it less attractive to build them here. It is no doubt the combination of the two which they will be assessing - and what's the point of building in the UK if that doesn't give seamless access to the Single Market combined with efficient supply-chain logistics?
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
The frankly gobsmacking thing is that people who voted Leave didn't foresee the negative consequences of their vote. I get the it's a price worth paying line. But the sheer idiocy of the "well that changes everything, you can knock me down with a feather" response is extraordinary.
The consequences was the EU trade deal with Japan.
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
We've seen this before. A company announcing they are pulling out of Brexit Britain only to see a few days later the story is way overblown. In a few days time we will realise this news has also been overblown.
So far this week that's BMI's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit and Honda's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit. It's still only Monday, so plenty more days this week for other bad business news that has nothing to do with Brexit.
1. A country where the government cannot get its business through. 2. A country where the government is dependant on the votes of a provincial party which opposed an international treaty (the GFA) ending decades of violence in that province, and which the government has pledged to uphold. 3. A country where any government entering into an agreement with it cannot be confident that the agreement will stick. 4. A country where the main opposition party loses some of its MPs because of their concern that it has become institutionally anti-semitic.
Looks like Noto tends to have the Social Democrats slightly higher than average. The slide mostly seems to be benefiting the harder right parties, Lega and FdI.
Many Brexiteers will probably argue that we ought to have a home-grown car industry, rather than relying on decisions taken by foreign businesses. (Not my opinion, just trying to think like they do).
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. It is true that the continued uncertainty of whether we will have our own FTA with the EU will not have helped but the reality is that the competitive advantage the UK had as a "manufacturer" in the EU has been negotiated away in the EU deal. What our position was on this would be interesting. My guess, FWIW, is that the default almost irrebutable presumption that free trade is good for us would have prevailed without a lot of thought about the practical consequences.
If this is the case - and it sounds sensible - we can expect Japanese car factories in the EU to close as well? How many are there, and where?
Either way, it looks very Brexity - it just does - and could produce a last minute swing in the polling, which might concentrate or even change political minds.
IANAE on car manufacture but it seems obvious that this is a trade off between the cost of making or assembling cars in particular markets and the shipping and other costs of transporting them there. The "other costs" have just been reduced which has an effect on the competitiveness of the UK plants. Whether they can overcome that with excellent productivity or sunk investment remains to be seen but it is undoubtedly more difficult.
In the longer run it seems to me that the key is not assembly plants but creativity and design based in the UK. When we are basically screwing someone else's design together for them we will struggle to retain a competitive advantage and be subject to the vicissitudes of international trade.
Many Brexiteers will probably argue that we ought to have a home-grown car industry, rather than relying on decisions taken by foreign governments. (Not my opinion, just trying to think like they do).
And many of them would like to drive a Morgan anyway...
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. [snip]
No, that's wrong. Yes, the EU deal with Japan make it a bit more attractive to build the cars in Japan, but that's only half the story: the UK leaving the EU makes it less attractive to build them here. It is no doubt the combination of the two which they will be assessing - and what's the point of building in the UK if that doesn't give seamless access to the Single Market combined with efficient supply-chain logistics?
And presumably the EU negotiators factored in that any closing of EU plants would be more than compensated by the increased trade to Japan. But, of course, we won't now be benefiting from any of that.
@JustinTomlinson Follow Follow @JustinTomlinson More Honda will be consulting with all staff and there is not expected to be any job losses, or changes in production until 2021.
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
We've seen this before. A company announcing they are pulling out of Brexit Britain only to see a few days later the story is way overblown. In a few days time we will realise this news has also been overblown.
I suspect the factory is closing - Honda's factory has always had far more closures than Toyota and Nissan so has always been more marginal than the others.
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
The frankly gobsmacking thing is that people who voted Leave didn't foresee the negative consequences of their vote. I get the it's a price worth paying line. But the sheer idiocy of the "well that changes everything, you can knock me down with a feather" response is extraordinary.
As others have noted, I think this is more to do with the EU/Japan FTA than Brexit, though Brexit certainly hasn't helped.
The incendiary element of this is that it does *look* like its primarily caused by Brexit (even if that perception is unfair) and, also, the incredible timing. They could have waited two, three, six months to announce a closure in 2022.
But no, they drop the bomb now, just as the Brexit debate turns feverish. I am sure that is deliberate. Will it be effective as well as explosive?
It is rather overshadowed by other news today. More like a good day to bury bad news.
A busy morning for me so a first chance to catch up on what I'm told is a "momentous" day in politics.
I think Chuka and the others have handled this quite well - we aren't talking a new Party as such yet but instead a clear break from Labour in terms of "we haven't left Labour, Labour has left us" suggesting IF the Party shifts away from Corbyn-esque policies, they will be back.
Leaving a political party isn't easy if you've been a member for decades but instead of rushing to another party, the seven have decided to call themselves Independent and allow themselves time to formulate policy positions across, I suspect, a range of issues not just Brexit.
As to whether this will lead to more resignations and defections, we'll see. It's more likely, I think, the seven will be able to attract back some ex-Labour supporters who have already departed since Corbyn became leader and those who have never had any political allegiance.
As might be expected, an orchestrated campaign from the Right to denigrate and belittle the new grouping from the start (no surprise as this group has the potential to be a far greater threat to the Conservatives than Corbyn) while the Left goes more with the "sorrow than anger" tab.
We also hear once again "rumours" and "reports" of "progress" between May and the EU - we've been here before of course and a lot of it may be supporters of the PM whistling as the clock counts down to Feb 27th.
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. [snip]
No, that's wrong. Yes, the EU deal with Japan make it a bit more attractive to build the cars in Japan, but that's only half the story: the UK leaving the EU makes it less attractive to build them here. It is no doubt the combination of the two which they will be assessing - and what's the point of building in the UK if that doesn't give seamless access to the Single Market combined with efficient supply-chain logistics?
And presumably the EU negotiators factored in that any closing of EU plants would be more than compensated by the increased trade to Japan. But, of course, we won't now be benefiting from any of that.
I don't know whether any plants in the EU27, where only one of the two factors I described would apply, will be at risk. As a general rule, car manufacturing locations are pretty 'sticky': it's expensive and disruptive to relocate them, which is why it's usually only done when switching over to a completely new model.
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. [snip]
No, that's wrong. Yes, the EU deal with Japan make it a bit more attractive to build the cars in Japan, but that's only half the story: the UK leaving the EU makes it less attractive to build them here. It is no doubt the combination of the two which they will be assessing - and what's the point of building in the UK if that doesn't give seamless access to the Single Market combined with efficient supply-chain logistics?
But we don't know whether we will have that or not yet because the FTA is yet to be negotiated. As I said it doesn't help to have continuing uncertainty about this but it would be astonishing if we had anything less than a FTA with the EU in due course. What is new right now is the Japan/EU deal and it seems more likely to me that that is driving these decisions.
@JustinTomlinson Follow Follow @JustinTomlinson More Honda will be consulting with all staff and there is not expected to be any job losses, or changes in production until 2021.
6:46 AM - 18 Feb 2019"
At least the affected workers can plan. Still its going to make remortgaging etc a pain for them, unpleasent news.
So far this week that's BMI's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit and Honda's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit. It's still only Monday, so plenty more days this week for other bad business news that has nothing to do with Brexit.
Alternatively you could look at the macroeconomic figures and over the last 6 months we've seen Britain grow faster than any other G7 European economy and we have seen employment surge to record highs.
But yes lets ignore the big picture and concentrate on companies that have long been struggling in industries that have long been struggling. As all we need in this country is struggling zombie companies in your eyes and not entrepeneurial alternatives taking us forwards.
Looks like Noto tends to have the Social Democrats slightly higher than average. The slide mostly seems to be benefiting the harder right parties, Lega and FdI.
There's a Piepoli poll from the same date that has 31:27 in favour of Lega, but either way it looks like the Populists could be in line for 70% of the seats, given the thresholds.
Many Brexiteers will probably argue that we ought to have a home-grown car industry, rather than relying on decisions taken by foreign businesses. (Not my opinion, just trying to think like they do).
@JustinTomlinson Follow Follow @JustinTomlinson More Honda will be consulting with all staff and there is not expected to be any job losses, or changes in production until 2021.
6:46 AM - 18 Feb 2019"
At least the affected workers can plan. Still its going to make remortgaging etc a pain for them, unpleasent news.
They struggle to get staff (on the production line) at the moment (I have a friend in senior management there) also there will be a backlash as Honda sales in the UK will fall, so potentially meaning a cut in production.
Outside of their Brexit voting, look at rest of the voting patterns of the possible Conservative defectors. They really don't look like easy bed-fellows for the Seven.
That's why I think it's much more likely that any Tory splitters won't join this group, but will sit as independents. They can 'caucus' with the TIGers on specific issues - especially Brexit - and vote with the Tories on others.
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
We've seen this before. A company announcing they are pulling out of Brexit Britain only to see a few days later the story is way overblown. In a few days time we will realise this news has also been overblown.
I don't think is overblown. Honda are not a bunch of kids. One of Project Fear's biggest predictions has just come true.
As a Leaver I have to accept this. They were right.
There will now be intense pressure for the UK to stay in the SM as well as the CU.
Why? To make things easier for struggling companies that are already choosing to leave?
The irony is that if Honda is going there's less reason to come up with a Brexit that will keep them here. We can instead concentrate on a big picture what is best for Britain Brexit.
So far this week that's BMI's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit and Honda's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit. It's still only Monday, so plenty more days this week for other bad business news that has nothing to do with Brexit.
Alternatively you could look at the macroeconomic figures and over the last 6 months we've seen Britain grow faster than any other G7 European economy and we have seen employment surge to record highs.
To be fair, others are doing badly, rather than us doing well. What's striking is the way that for years, most Western countries have struggled to achieve the rates of growth that were the norm from 1950 - 2000.
People talk about growth of 2 - 2.5% as a "boom" when it would have considered nothing unusual in the past.
So far this week that's BMI's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit and Honda's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit. It's still only Monday, so plenty more days this week for other bad business news that has nothing to do with Brexit.
Alternatively you could look at the macroeconomic figures and over the last 6 months we've seen Britain grow faster than any other G7 European economy and we have seen employment surge to record highs.
To be fair, others are doing badly, rather than us doing well.
That doesn't explain our employment levels surging to record highs at a time people keep highlighting supposed job losses.
Go on, attack her, Attack her violently and viciously. That will create more defectors...
This could be just the beginning of Labour's breakdown. They may not splinter, they might shatter.
Delicious.
If Labour disintegrates, there must be a fair chance the Conservatives would also do so. What's left to hold them together if Labour are no longer a threat?
Brexit.
There's a big divide between those who think that any agreement with the EU is a deal with the devil, and the rest, and a small divide between those who are opposed to leaving the EU at all and the rest.
I was joking: Brexit is a bomb under the Party.
But that aside, there's a lot keeping the Tories together that goes well beyond fear of, and opposition to, Labour, and is the traditional centre-right political model.
Always going to happen. A Japan-EU FTA has two main effects: more Japanese cars shipped direct to Europe, and more European agricultural output to Japan. Nice for the French, not so nice for us.
Both the two main parties are now old-fashioned political dinsosaurs that are ruled by their long histories and by extremist members who are not accountable to the public. This is just the right time for a new party to be formed.
At least it could give the voters a choice that they do not really have at the moment.
The Honda announcement is very bad news for Brexit. The fact that the global car industry is going to shed a high proportion of jobs in any case over the next 10 years thanks to electrification is irrelevant. Nobody will care when it dovetails so neatly with the Remain narrative that Brexit will be a disaster for output and jobs.
The continuing inability of our MPs to make up their minds is starting to have real-world consequences. If we’d signed up to May’s deal before Christmas, I wonder whether this would have happened.
I do think a new centrist party led by Umunna will do well in a general election. However I think (sadly) that a new populist nationalist party led by Farage will do even better. I caught him on the radio yesterday doing his talk show and the guy really does have it. He pulls you in, makes all his reactionary nonsense appear to be just common sense, leaves you wishing that you could continue the chat with him over a pint down the local. It's political gold.
As an aside, if both of these new parties do get traction and run seriously at the next election, I think the aggregate net impact will be considerably worse for Labour than for the Conservatives.
@JustinTomlinson Follow Follow @JustinTomlinson More Honda will be consulting with all staff and there is not expected to be any job losses, or changes in production until 2021.
6:46 AM - 18 Feb 2019"
The lack of grammar (is/are) is less worrying than the lack of clarity. Does the "until 2021" relate to changes in production, or also to loss of jobs?
Ah, some good news for Labour for once. The party will be able to make up for the welcome loss of the snivelling traitors (may they rot in a Zionist hell) by attracting people like this:
I loved the Labour party much more than those who kicked me out of it ever loved it. Indeed, they are the people who almost killed it. Jeremy Corbyn has brought it back to life. So watch this space, there will be others leaving, but – like me – I hope there will be others joining.
Lose some, win some. It just needs a minor administrative tweak to rescind the ban on George Galloway.
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. [snip]
No, that's wrong. Yes, the EU deal with Japan make it a bit more attractive to build the cars in Japan, but that's only half the story: the UK leaving the EU makes it less attractive to build them here. It is no doubt the combination of the two which they will be assessing - and what's the point of building in the UK if that doesn't give seamless access to the Single Market combined with efficient supply-chain logistics?
But we don't know whether we will have that or not yet because the FTA is yet to be negotiated. As I said it doesn't help to have continuing uncertainty about this but it would be astonishing if we had anything less than a FTA with the EU in due course. What is new right now is the Japan/EU deal and it seems more likely to me that that is driving these decisions.
It's like the advice about being smartly dressed at interviews. It won't get you the job, but it won't lose it for you either.
So far this week that's BMI's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit and Honda's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit. It's still only Monday, so plenty more days this week for other bad business news that has nothing to do with Brexit.
Alternatively you could look at the macroeconomic figures and over the last 6 months we've seen Britain grow faster than any other G7 European economy and we have seen employment surge to record highs.
To be fair, others are doing badly, rather than us doing well. What's striking is the way that for years, most Western countries have struggled to achieve the rates of growth that were the norm from 1950 - 2000.
People talk about growth of 2 - 2.5% as a "boom" when it would have considered nothing unusual in the past.
I think it is a natural side-effect of the rise of the East and globalisation.
Globalisation should theoretically lead to East and West meeting in the middle, which would mean a big rise for the East and a big fall for the West.
The fact that the East is rising rapidly while the West is maintaining in general [rather slim] growth is actually quite impressive.
Many Brexiteers will probably argue that we ought to have a home-grown car industry, rather than relying on decisions taken by foreign businesses. (Not my opinion, just trying to think like they do).
Not so much home grown but home developed, that is developed here whatever nationality the ultimate owners have. We have some excellent expertise in car manufacturing in the UK, mainly at the top end of motorsport. Our government and education institutions need to be more focused on what these manufacturers want in terms of skills and development so that their next cars are developed and then improved here. If we achieve this we are more likely to retain the metal bashing bits.
We are at a critical point where much of existing manufacture for cars is not going to be renewed on anything like the same basis. Diesels are on their way out. We have both a threat and an opportunity in the clean slates that electric vehicles are going to introduce.
The Honda announcement is very bad news for Brexit. The fact that the global car industry is going to shed a high proportion of jobs in any case over the next 10 years thanks to electrification is irrelevant. Nobody will care when it dovetails so neatly with the Remain narrative that Brexit will be a disaster for output and jobs.
The continuing inability of our MPs to make up their minds is starting to have real-world consequences. If we’d signed up to May’s deal before Christmas, I wonder whether this would have happened.
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. It is true that the continued uncertainty of whether we will have our own FTA with the EU will not have helped but the reality is that the competitive advantage the UK had as a "manufacturer" in the EU has been negotiated away in the EU deal. What our position was on this would be interesting. My guess, FWIW, is that the default almost irrebutable presumption that free trade is good for us would have prevailed without a lot of thought about the practical consequences.
The Honda announcement is very bad news for Brexit. The fact that the global car industry is going to shed a high proportion of jobs in any case over the next 10 years thanks to electrification is irrelevant. Nobody will care when it dovetails so neatly with the Remain narrative that Brexit will be a disaster for output and jobs.
The continuing inability of our MPs to make up their minds is starting to have real-world consequences. If we’d signed up to May’s deal before Christmas, I wonder whether this would have happened.
Yes it would have happened. As you said in your own opening paragraph it would happen anyway.
The spin may have been different [unlikely] but unless we start to see companies announce UK plant closures in order to relocate onto the Continent then its unlikely to really be due to Brexit.
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
We've seen this before. A company announcing they are pulling out of Brexit Britain only to see a few days later the story is way overblown. In a few days time we will realise this news has also been overblown.
I don't think is overblown. Honda are not a bunch of kids. One of Project Fear's biggest predictions has just come true.
As a Leaver I have to accept this. They were right.
There will now be intense pressure for the UK to stay in the SM as well as the CU.
Why? To make things easier for struggling companies that are already choosing to leave?
The irony is that if Honda is going there's less reason to come up with a Brexit that will keep them here. We can instead concentrate on a big picture what is best for Britain Brexit.
Good to see you have embraced Boris' view of and attitude to business.
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. [snip]
No, that's wrong. Yes, the EU deal with Japan make it a bit more attractive to build the cars in Japan, but that's only half the story: the UK leaving the EU makes it less attractive to build them here. It is no doubt the combination of the two which they will be assessing - and what's the point of building in the UK if that doesn't give seamless access to the Single Market combined with efficient supply-chain logistics?
Sky say that it is the only factory in Europe producing the Civic and ultimately it is the collapse in diesel sales is the primary reason
Swindon MP: "Honda decision nothing to do with Brexit, since all European production will be moving to Japan by 2021".
If that is correct, how many plants does Honda have across Europe?
only other plant is in Turkey, this plant makes Civics for continental EU. The Civics made in the UK were for RoW with Japan and USA being the main markets.
The Honda announcement is very bad news for Brexit. The fact that the global car industry is going to shed a high proportion of jobs in any case over the next 10 years thanks to electrification is irrelevant. Nobody will care when it dovetails so neatly with the Remain narrative that Brexit will be a disaster for output and jobs.
The continuing inability of our MPs to make up their minds is starting to have real-world consequences. If we’d signed up to May’s deal before Christmas, I wonder whether this would have happened.
Probably yes, because over-capacity is huge.
I suspect you are right. However, the slowing down of investment generally is a fact, and not knowing what our trading arrangements will be in 39 days’ time is a key driver of it.
The 2017 GE result was the worst possible for the country, the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. Well done everyone.
Regardless of whether the Honda decision is to do with Brexit , car manufacturing in the UK is in troubled waters. Future investment is the real concern and Brexit casts a shadow over that .
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
We've seen this before. A company announcing they are pulling out of Brexit Britain only to see a few days later the story is way overblown. In a few days time we will realise this news has also been overblown.
I don't think is overblown. Honda are not a bunch of kids. One of Project Fear's biggest predictions has just come true.
As a Leaver I have to accept this. They were right.
There will now be intense pressure for the UK to stay in the SM as well as the CU.
Why? To make things easier for struggling companies that are already choosing to leave?
The irony is that if Honda is going there's less reason to come up with a Brexit that will keep them here. We can instead concentrate on a big picture what is best for Britain Brexit.
Project Fear said that Brexit would decimate our car industry, taking with it up to half a million jobs. It was dismissed. And at first, with the assurances from Toyota/Nissan etc, it did seem like the Remainery threats were overblown.
Now, with Honda adding an entire plant closure to the earlier news of the X-trail, it is undeniably the case that Project Fear looks way more believable. We really *could* lose large chunks of an entire industry, which constitutes 12% of our exports and supports a million jobs.
Any Leaver who ignores this is an idiot. It's a sobering moment. Even if the cause is not entirely down to Brexit (the EU/Japan FTA is surely a huge factor) it certainly feels like nightmare Brexit is coming true. This has the potential to change the debate in parliament, entirely.
Except that the reality for anyone who isn't buying into spin is that Nissan's decision was definitely not to do with Brexit, it was to do with diesel etc, and that Honda's was likely not to do with Brexit.
If people buy into bullshit that this is to do with Brexit it will be doubly self-defeating as it won't revive X-Trail which is deader than a dodo.
So far this week that's BMI's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit and Honda's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit. It's still only Monday, so plenty more days this week for other bad business news that has nothing to do with Brexit.
Alternatively you could look at the macroeconomic figures and over the last 6 months we've seen Britain grow faster than any other G7 European economy and we have seen employment surge to record highs.
To be fair, others are doing badly, rather than us doing well.
That doesn't explain our employment levels surging to record highs at a time people keep highlighting supposed job losses.
No-one has mentioned how well the rest of the British car industry is doing at the moment, specially the more specialist manufacturers. Aston Martin, Bentley, Rolls-Royce and McLaren have all expanded over the past couple of years and have long waiting lists for new models. McLaren alone have added 1,000 staff in the last year or two, and have opened a new factory in Sheffield to make advanced carbon composite car bodies.
The popular end of the car industry though, that’s in utter turmoil everywhere in the world, has been for the last couple of years and will be for the next couple of years too.
So far this week that's BMI's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit and Honda's closure that has nothing to do with Brexit. It's still only Monday, so plenty more days this week for other bad business news that has nothing to do with Brexit.
Alternatively you could look at the macroeconomic figures and over the last 6 months we've seen Britain grow faster than any other G7 European economy and we have seen employment surge to record highs.
To be fair, others are doing badly, rather than us doing well.
That doesn't explain our employment levels surging to record highs at a time people keep highlighting supposed job losses.
No-one has mentioned how well the rest of the British car industry is doing at the moment, specially the more specialist manufacturers. Aston Martin, Bentley, Rolls-Royce and McLaren have all expanded over the past couple of years and have long waiting lists for new models. McLaren alone have added 1,000 staff in the last year or two, and have opened a new factory in Sheffield to make advanced carbon composite car bodies.
The popular end of the car industry though, that’s in utter turmoil everywhere in the world, has been for the last couple of years and will be for the next couple of years too.
Didn't Toyota also recently open a new production line?
If Greg Clark is any good he will be on a plane to see Elon Musk first and then James Dyson. Purpose built car manufacturing facility and workforce. Seeing as we will be out of the EU he can offer all sorts of state aid incentives.
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
We've seen this before. A company announcing they are pulling out of Brexit Britain only to see a few days later the story is way overblown. In a few days time we will realise this news has also been overblown.
I don't think is overblown. Honda are not a bunch of kids. One of Project Fear's biggest predictions has just come true.
As a Leaver I have to accept this. They were right.
There will now be intense pressure for the UK to stay in the SM as well as the CU.
Why? To make things easier for struggling companies that are already choosing to leave?
The irony is that if Honda is going there's less reason to come up with a Brexit that will keep them here. We can instead concentrate on a big picture what is best for Britain Brexit.
Good to see you have embraced Boris' view of and attitude to business.
I've not. I want to build a positive picture for what is best for business globally for the UK.
Not cling on to dead diesel zombies. Other posters talking about ensuring we are competitive for electric cars etc is infinitely more important for the UK's future than banging on about failing diesel models.
The Honda news is a potential game-changer. And I speak as a Leaver.
It has been timed with perfection. Deliberately?
We've seen this before. A company announcing they are pulling out of Brexit Britain only to see a few days later the story is way overblown. In a few days time we will realise this news has also been overblown.
But it keeps happening. Remainers don't have to keep explaining away big inward investment stories.
The common thread on both the decisions by Japanese car companies in recent weeks is that the new trade deal that the EU has agreed with Japan means that there will effectively be no tariffs on Japanese imports. This makes the costs of transporting the parts and then assembling the cars in the UK no longer attractive. It is cheaper to do this at home and then export the completed product.
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. [snip]
No, that's wrong. Yes, the EU deal with Japan make it a bit more attractive to build the cars in Japan, but that's only half the story: the UK leaving the EU makes it less attractive to build them here. It is no doubt the combination of the two which they will be assessing - and what's the point of building in the UK if that doesn't give seamless access to the Single Market combined with efficient supply-chain logistics?
But we don't know whether we will have that or not yet because the FTA is yet to be negotiated. As I said it doesn't help to have continuing uncertainty about this but it would be astonishing if we had anything less than a FTA with the EU in due course. What is new right now is the Japan/EU deal and it seems more likely to me that that is driving these decisions.
It's like the advice about being smartly dressed at interviews. It won't get you the job, but it won't lose it for you either.
Its always the same. You need to add value. What's in it for the customer? We need to play to our strengths (excellent research, science and creativity, decent sized home market) and minimise our weaknesses (less than top of the range infrastructure, limited domestic supply market, pretty ordinary productivity overall). Brexit can add to our weaknesses if we let it. The sooner we have a FTA with the EU the better. Our political class needs to stop messing about.
Comments
https://twitter.com/BBCChrisD/status/1097502165797617664
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1097497912488198144
Most people will however see it as bad news for Brexit which may have Honda's desired effect (especially as it gives them political cover)
The consequences of this deal would thus have been the same whether we remain full members of the EU or not. It is true that the continued uncertainty of whether we will have our own FTA with the EU will not have helped but the reality is that the competitive advantage the UK had as a "manufacturer" in the EU has been negotiated away in the EU deal. What our position was on this would be interesting. My guess, FWIW, is that the default almost irrebutable presumption that free trade is good for us would have prevailed without a lot of thought about the practical consequences.
https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/1097501986684051457
Lets see where the ground lies in a couple of weeks with this story.
And why not?
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1097504030362947584
1. A country where the government cannot get its business through.
2. A country where the government is dependant on the votes of a provincial party which opposed an international treaty (the GFA) ending decades of violence in that province, and which the government has pledged to uphold.
3. A country where any government entering into an agreement with it cannot be confident that the agreement will stick.
4. A country where the main opposition party loses some of its MPs because of their concern that it has become institutionally anti-semitic.
Great.
In the longer run it seems to me that the key is not assembly plants but creativity and design based in the UK. When we are basically screwing someone else's design together for them we will struggle to retain a competitive advantage and be subject to the vicissitudes of international trade.
Verified account
@JustinTomlinson
Follow Follow @JustinTomlinson
More
Honda will be consulting with all staff and there is not expected to be any job losses, or changes in production until 2021.
6:46 AM - 18 Feb 2019"
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1097507941811400705
Len asleep on the job.
A busy morning for me so a first chance to catch up on what I'm told is a "momentous" day in politics.
I think Chuka and the others have handled this quite well - we aren't talking a new Party as such yet but instead a clear break from Labour in terms of "we haven't left Labour, Labour has left us" suggesting IF the Party shifts away from Corbyn-esque policies, they will be back.
Leaving a political party isn't easy if you've been a member for decades but instead of rushing to another party, the seven have decided to call themselves Independent and allow themselves time to formulate policy positions across, I suspect, a range of issues not just Brexit.
As to whether this will lead to more resignations and defections, we'll see. It's more likely, I think, the seven will be able to attract back some ex-Labour supporters who have already departed since Corbyn became leader and those who have never had any political allegiance.
As might be expected, an orchestrated campaign from the Right to denigrate and belittle the new grouping from the start (no surprise as this group has the potential to be a far greater threat to the Conservatives than Corbyn) while the Left goes more with the "sorrow than anger" tab.
We also hear once again "rumours" and "reports" of "progress" between May and the EU - we've been here before of course and a lot of it may be supporters of the PM whistling as the clock counts down to Feb 27th.
But yes lets ignore the big picture and concentrate on companies that have long been struggling in industries that have long been struggling. As all we need in this country is struggling zombie companies in your eyes and not entrepeneurial alternatives taking us forwards.
Like GEC, Plessey, ICI etc etc.
https://twitter.com/robwattsf1/status/1097505931770896384
I didn't, on the basis there might be pro-Vettel team orders *and* that his price wasn't as long as it should be (8.5 versus 34 for Gasly).
The irony is that if Honda is going there's less reason to come up with a Brexit that will keep them here. We can instead concentrate on a big picture what is best for Britain Brexit.
People talk about growth of 2 - 2.5% as a "boom" when it would have considered nothing unusual in the past.
But that aside, there's a lot keeping the Tories together that goes well beyond fear of, and opposition to, Labour, and is the traditional centre-right political model.
At least it could give the voters a choice that they do not really have at the moment.
The continuing inability of our MPs to make up their minds is starting to have real-world consequences. If we’d signed up to May’s deal before Christmas, I wonder whether this would have happened.
As an aside, if both of these new parties do get traction and run seriously at the next election, I think the aggregate net impact will be considerably worse for Labour than for the Conservatives.
I loved the Labour party much more than those who kicked me out of it ever loved it. Indeed, they are the people who almost killed it. Jeremy Corbyn has brought it back to life. So watch this space, there will be others leaving, but – like me – I hope there will be others joining.
Lose some, win some. It just needs a minor administrative tweak to rescind the ban on George Galloway.
Globalisation should theoretically lead to East and West meeting in the middle, which would mean a big rise for the East and a big fall for the West.
The fact that the East is rising rapidly while the West is maintaining in general [rather slim] growth is actually quite impressive.
At least she can be thankful she wasn't burned alive:
https://www.premier.org.uk/News/World/Pakistan-Christians-burnt-alive-still-no-convictions-two-years-on
"@ElectionMapsUK
Follow Follow @ElectionMapsUK
More
Westminster Voting Intention
CON: 38% (+2)
LAB: 35% (-1)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 5% (=)
UKIP: 5% (-1)
Via @BMGResearch, 4-8 Feb.
Changes w/ 8-11 Jan."
We are at a critical point where much of existing manufacture for cars is not going to be renewed on anything like the same basis. Diesels are on their way out. We have both a threat and an opportunity in the clean slates that electric vehicles are going to introduce.
The spin may have been different [unlikely] but unless we start to see companies announce UK plant closures in order to relocate onto the Continent then its unlikely to really be due to Brexit.
The 2017 GE result was the worst possible for the country, the Conservative Party and the Labour Party. Well done everyone.
If people buy into bullshit that this is to do with Brexit it will be doubly self-defeating as it won't revive X-Trail which is deader than a dodo.
The popular end of the car industry though, that’s in utter turmoil everywhere in the world, has been for the last couple of years and will be for the next couple of years too.
In one sense a hard left Corbyn Govt has become much more likely today.
The Independents / a new Centre Party could very easily vanish without trace - leaving the next GE as the usual Con / Lab contest.
And in any two horse race, anyone can easily win.
The point is that these MPs were the insurance policy against an extreme Lab govt. If they (and others) go, that insurance policy is no longer there.
https://global.honda/about/group/category.html?category=manufacturing-facilities
The thought will not even enter his head.
Not cling on to dead diesel zombies. Other posters talking about ensuring we are competitive for electric cars etc is infinitely more important for the UK's future than banging on about failing diesel models.