politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab’s resignation sparks off huge movements on the TMay exit,
Comments
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Yes. It has to be put to the vote. Flags need to be nailed to masts. Only then might there be the leverage to change things.TheScreamingEagles said:
I would.dixiedean said:She can't really bring this to a vote, can she? Certain defeat, and humiliation. Only last night, it was cheerfully asserted it would pass on Labour votes and abstentions.
No chance.
If it gets voted down the markets crash and MPs will be under pressure to accept the deal.
This is what happened with TARP in America back in 2008, and what George Osborne's former Chief of Staff predicted would happen earlier on this week0 -
Gardening leave?RochdalePioneers said:I must give thanks to my now former employer for freeing up my time to be able to watch this (and indeed further Brexishambles) and to be paying me handsomely to do so.
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Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.0 -
Hm. Have you ever voted? In, say, an election or referendum?Alanbrooke said:
whilst you consider the mess you helped us get into?JosiasJessop said:
How about you having a break whilst you consider the mess you helped us get into? I can recommend some good walks.Alanbrooke said:
you need a lie down or go for a walk, a break will do you goodJosiasJessop said:
Nope, not having a fit.Alanbrooke said:
hmmm your having a Brexit fitJosiasJessop said:
Another leaver sharing their infinite wisdom with us ...Alanbrooke said:
Agree a national position then declare A50, negotiate from WTO to an eventual settlementXenon said:
But what was the alternative? Stay in the EU forever in a direction the majority don't want? or something else?JosiasJessop said:
For the record, I'm not a fan of the EU; I could live with it as it is, but do not like the direction it is heading in. I was going to vote leave, but the sheer inconsistencies and tone of the leave campaigns made me vote for the lesser evil of remain.Xenon said:
So how should we have left the EU then?JosiasJessop said:
Your 'point' wasn't a point. It was a pathetic blame-shifting exercise (and ignored the fact we'd had a previous referendum).Xenon said:
Well done for completely ignoring my point.JosiasJessop said:
The Brexiter line: it's always some else's fault. It's the EU's fault. It's May's fault. It's not my fault.Xenon said:
What are you talking about?JosiasJessop said:
You should form a double-act.
Which one of you wants to be Bart SImpson as the 'I didn't do it' kid?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtVteemLin4
But it is. Anyone who voted for leave owns this, and owns the consequences.
And the previous referendum wasn't for what the EU turned into. Geez some people really are EU fanatics.
If that makes me an 'EU fanatic', so be it.
I could respond in kind, but as you're a new poster I'll let you off gently.
I'm honestly struggling to see what the best thing we should have done is.
Tell me, how the fuyck do we agree a 'national position' given the lies of the leave campaign?
come back when youve calmed down
Just enjoying seeing leavers squirm at trying to avoid the blame for the mess they've created.
thats just funny, remind me how exactly I shaped the nation's politics ? LOL0 -
No. They haven't removed her so she is doing her job. She also knows it won't pass but she is making sure her party tell her to go and or parliament backs up it's words and votes it down.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
That's not delusional it's making those opposed to her position follow through.0 -
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:0 -
Cameron already went and got the best deal possible from the EU. The voters rejected this best deal and voted to leave.logical_song said:
Mr Jessop is right, Leave argued for all sorts of things but very few argued for 'No Deal' (is that what you mean by 'proerly leave'?)
Mrs May's deal would fulfil the referendum result even if it is Brexit In Name Only and worse than staying.
The leave vote wasn't for yet another renegotiation with the EU. Unfortunately this seems to be what it has become since they've decided not to plan to leave on WTO terms at all.0 -
Almost every question points to the absolute absurdity of taking the UK out of the EU.
She sounds like the fireman who defended the advice to stay in Grenfell Tower because it was the advice in their instruction book.0 -
Sometimes we underestimate what a bunker no10 can be. It has been obvious for weeks that she doesn't have the votes. Maybe not one of her sycophants told her and finally it is dawning. She has a very tin ear.TOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.0 -
I expect @Alanbrooke's influence over the Parliamentary Conservatives is minimal.Stereotomy said:
Hm. Have you ever voted? In, say, an election or referendum?Alanbrooke said:
whilst you consider the mess you helped us get into?JosiasJessop said:
How about you having a break whilst you consider the mess you helped us get into? I can recommend some good walks.Alanbrooke said:
you need a lie down or go for a walk, a break will do you goodJosiasJessop said:
Nope, not having a fit.Alanbrooke said:
hmmm your having a Brexit fitJosiasJessop said:
Another leaver sharing their infinite wisdom with us ...Alanbrooke said:
Agree a national position then declare A50, negotiate from WTO to an eventual settlementXenon said:
But what was the alternative? Stay in the EU forever in a direction the majority don't want? or something else?JosiasJessop said:Xenon said:
So how should we have left the EU then?JosiasJessop said:
Your 'point' wasn't a point. It was a pathetic blame-shifting exercise (and ignored the fact we'd had a previous referendum).Xenon said:
Well done for completely ignoring my point.JosiasJessop said:
The Brexiter line: it's always some else's fault. It's the EU's fault. It's May's fault. It's not my fault.Xenon said:
What are you talking about?JosiasJessop said:
You should form a double-act.
Which one of you wants to be Bart SImpson as the 'I didn't do it' kid?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtVteemLin4
But it is. Anyone who voted for leave owns this, and owns the consequences.
And the previous referendum wasn't for what the EU turned into. Geez some people really are EU fanatics.
I could respond in kind, but as you're a new poster I'll let you off gently.
I'm honestly struggling to see what the best thing we should have done is.
Tell me, how the fuyck do we agree a 'national position' given the lies of the leave campaign?
come back when youve calmed down
Just enjoying seeing leavers squirm at trying to avoid the blame for the mess they've created.
thats just funny, remind me how exactly I shaped the nation's politics ? LOL0 -
The two sides against it want completely contradictory outcomes. They are therefore both playing with fire.TOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.
The most obvious source of votes to get this deal through (at the second attempt, as discussed) is the Labour members who can tolerate it: not the relatively few Flints & Snells, but their front bench. Presumably their price would be a post-exit GE.0 -
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.0 -
Except their pretext for a GE was to renegotiate the deal, which they've trashed and now cannot support.Tissue_Price said:
The two sides against it want completely contradictory outcomes. They are therefore both playing with fire.TOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.
The most obvious source of votes to get this deal through (at the second attempt, as discussed) is the Labour members who can tolerate it: not the relatively few Flints & Snells, but their front bench. Presumably their price would be a post-exit GE.0 -
Important Missisipi betting news in this thread. GOP candidate may have filed false donation reports.
https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1062775422763573249?s=19
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a deal which doesnt piss off the extremes cant happen, so its probably about rightTOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.0 -
Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
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What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be0
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Given the red lines May drew (and despite them turning a very light pink), if we are to leave, there is no better deal than this very bad deal. Anyone claiming otherwise is either a fool or a liar.TOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.
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Minus the rebate and all that "we're not having an army" stuff.OblitusSumMe said:
Pretty much. They may also add that they still have affection for Britain and would be willing to pretend that the last three years didn't happen if we asked them to forget it all.Cyclefree said:It would be interesting - and highly relevant - to know what the EU and other member states are making of what's happening today.
If they come to the view that Britain cannot stick to its side of the bargain, what will they do?
Say "This is the deal. Take it or leave it. And if you don't take it before 29 Marchit's the hardest of Brexits for you. After that date come back to talk to us when you're serious. Our focus will be on protecting ourselves and our citizens."
Or what?0 -
Agree.Sean_F said:I have to say that May has gone up in my estimation. Trying to lead this shower must take the patience of Job.
I wonder where we'll be in a week if the letters fail to hit the critical mass again, and the polling still puts her government ahead of the opposition and her way ahead for best PM.0 -
but unless the EU does something we do leave on March 29th - into a complete no-mans land of unpreparedness..RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
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Working on the legal advice about the agreement. Probably on page 10 by now.philiph said:
Something about your forum name makes me wonder where Cox is.grabcocque said:Where's Govey?
WHERE IS HE?
I can feel his presence, somewhere just out of sight. Are his intentions benign or malign? When will he strike, whatever that means?
Has he been seen today?0 -
Solely on that basis, we leave without a deal.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
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I think Raab has misjudged this and the anger shown in that interview will be widely spread.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:0 -
Arguably that's backwards. If the deal does not pass then unless something intervenes we ARE leaving then.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
Arguably if the deal passes then we only leave on 1 January 2021, depending on your perspective.0 -
Actually, yes we will be - unless we revoke Art 50.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
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On that basis unless we can negotiate something else we will be.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
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Article 50 and the deal are seperate things though.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
I know there’s a lot of handwringing that we’ll have to do something to prevent a no-deal, but if this doesn’t pass it’s perfectly conceivable that we leave on that date without a deal, if parliament can’t agree an alternative.0 -
It’s a martyrdom strategy. She’s going to make the Tory party beg to make it stop.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
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In the context of a market/sterling meltdown, they could present themselves as acting responsibly (McDonnell would love that). They don't need a pretext for a GE: they want to replace the Government.kle4 said:
Except their pretext for a GE was to renegotiate the deal, which they've trashed and now cannot support.Tissue_Price said:
The two sides against it want completely contradictory outcomes. They are therefore both playing with fire.TOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.
The most obvious source of votes to get this deal through (at the second attempt, as discussed) is the Labour members who can tolerate it: not the relatively few Flints & Snells, but their front bench. Presumably their price would be a post-exit GE.
I'm not saying this is going to happen. Clearly right now most people (and therefore many politicians) are against the deal because they think they can either get Remain (a democratic catastrophe) or No Deal (potentially an economic catastrophe, depending on the degree of mitigation that is possible). When they realise they can't - or when one outcome starts to look far more likely than the other, then opinions may change.0 -
Would she have the support on her own backbenches for that sort of deal?Tissue_Price said:
The two sides against it want completely contradictory outcomes. They are therefore both playing with fire.TOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.
The most obvious source of votes to get this deal through (at the second attempt, as discussed) is the Labour members who can tolerate it: not the relatively few Flints & Snells, but their front bench. Presumably their price would be a post-exit GE.
Many must be supporting her as a shield against Corbyn, so would they support a 2019GE?0 -
Who'd have thought, Nicky Morgan and David Mundell speaking for the nation.DavidL said:
I think Raab has misjudged this and the anger shown in that interview will be widely spread.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:0 -
Well one thing has become clear.
Parliament is united in condemning the draft deal. From all quarters.0 -
CU and SM would pass EU and HOC IMOSouthamObserver said:
Given the red lines May drew (and despite them turning a very light pink), if we are to leave, there is no better deal than this very bad deal. Anyone claiming otherwise is either a fool or a liar.TOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.0 -
I rather hope they do do that. I thought it was quite telling that Tusk was saying that while they would prefer us to stay they would try and make the process of departure as painless as possible.OblitusSumMe said:
Pretty much. They may also add that they still have affection for Britain and would be willing to pretend that the last three years didn't happen if we asked them to forget it all.Cyclefree said:It would be interesting - and highly relevant - to know what the EU and other member states are making of what's happening today.
If they come to the view that Britain cannot stick to its side of the bargain, what will they do?
Say "This is the deal. Take it or leave it. And if you don't take it before 29 Marchit's the hardest of Brexits for you. After that date come back to talk to us when you're serious. Our focus will be on protecting ourselves and our citizens."
Or what?
It is painful to see my country humiliate itself in this way. I have no fondness for the EU and they have much to learn from this saga as well but Britain has behaved in a way which saddens me. We have - could have - so much to offer, whether in or out, but we seem intent on blowing our own feet off. We could have spent the time trying to address seriously the concerns of Leave voters, many of which will not be cured by leaving, or the concerns of Remain voters. But no. We have pretended that someone like Mogg is worth listening to, that someone who doesn't understand the basic geography of where he lives is fit to be in Cabinet that knowledge and expertise about the EU are to be ignored, that businesses are to be insulted when they raise genuine concerns, that the fears of people who have made Britain their home are to be airily dismissed, that the Irish are to be patronised or told that they don't understand the history of their country and so - depressingly - on.
Even if something gets resolved, we have done ourselves great harm in the way we have conducted ourselves. We could have gone about this soberly and intelligently and with a degree of seriousness. That might at least have earned the grudging respect of those who disagreed with the destination. But this - the Bridgens and IDS's and Moggs and the rest of them - are both pathetic and dangerous and deserve nothing but contempt.0 -
Alas Morgan and Mundell are not the marginal votes.Pulpstar said:
Who'd have thought, Nicky Morgan and David Mundell speaking for the nation.DavidL said:
I think Raab has misjudged this and the anger shown in that interview will be widely spread.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:
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She should have spent more time realising that negotiations needed to happen both in Brussels and in the UK where it was crucial to find out what Brexit actually meant. Her arrogance when she first became PM and her 'Brexit means Brexit' nonsense meant that however good her negotiating skill with Brussels was, it was wasted.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.0 -
Sadly the likes of the Raab feel emboldened by the referendum result.DavidL said:
I think Raab has misjudged this and the anger shown in that interview will be widely spread.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:0 -
Unexpected departure from employment...Stereotomy said:
Gardening leave?RochdalePioneers said:I must give thanks to my now former employer for freeing up my time to be able to watch this (and indeed further Brexishambles) and to be paying me handsomely to do so.
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That would be the problem: how many loyalist votes would she lose? She'd be finished as Conservative leader too (for that GE) but she knows Brexit is bigger than that.OblitusSumMe said:
Would she have the support on her own backbenches for that sort of deal?Tissue_Price said:
The two sides against it want completely contradictory outcomes. They are therefore both playing with fire.TOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.
The most obvious source of votes to get this deal through (at the second attempt, as discussed) is the Labour members who can tolerate it: not the relatively few Flints & Snells, but their front bench. Presumably their price would be a post-exit GE.
Many must be supporting her as a shield against Corbyn, so would they support a 2019GE?0 -
That doesn't mean she is delusional now, which is insulting. She is pm intends to present her option to the house. It won't pass but until such time as her party removes her she is not being delusional in going through the motions.Jonathan said:
Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
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Politically tone-deaf, yes I agree. But a deal was certainly not easy at all, she's done incredibly well to get this far.Jonathan said:
Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
She's made lots of unforced errors, and has never been good at carrying people with her, but her analysis of the best way forward has been spot-on. This is the best implementation of Brexit we can get. She seems to have tripped over on the Brexiteers' bizarre urge to trash what they had been campaigning for for years.0 -
The problem is what does happen next.
There is supposed to be a special summit on the 25th of this month to ratify the deal. I really can't see that happening if it is evident that the HoC is not going to ratify it. There is no way that other MS are going to waste their time seeking approval of this after today.
Who will even go? It seems unlikely to be May at the moment. What will they want? Time? For what? And what if the answer is no, which it seems increasingly likely to be?0 -
On the other hand she does tend to pretend that nothing has happened when quite a lot has. See her reaction to the loss of her majority in the unnecessary 2017 GE.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2017/jun/12/steve-bells-if-theresa-may-nothing-has-changed0 -
What's funny is you are incorrect about that. Maybe hold the laughter for something May is wrong about, since there's not a guarantee another option will emerge.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
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"Sadly"TheScreamingEagles said:
Sadly the likes of the Raab feel emboldened by the referendum result.DavidL said:
I think Raab has misjudged this and the anger shown in that interview will be widely spread.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:
That's typical of the metropolitan elitist sneering, and disregard for, the strength of feeling in the country.0 -
Last month apparently Mundell wrote to the PM saying he would not support any deal that introduces different arrangements for Northern Ireland as it would "undermine the integrity" of the UK.Pulpstar said:
Who'd have thought, Nicky Morgan and David Mundell speaking for the nation.DavidL said:
I think Raab has misjudged this and the anger shown in that interview will be widely spread.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:
The deal clearly does - so why is he still in the Cabinet. Or did he just lay down his principles to save his ministerial car?
His anger is therefore just a bit much.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-458567840 -
Frankly, if there is to be an EU army, that would be a good thing for Britain. We'd probably end up playing a big part in it. Or we could rely on Trump.... I know who I'd prefer at this point.Harris_Tweed said:
Minus the rebate and all that "we're not having an army" stuff.OblitusSumMe said:
Pretty much. They may also add that they still have affection for Britain and would be willing to pretend that the last three years didn't happen if we asked them to forget it all.Cyclefree said:It would be interesting - and highly relevant - to know what the EU and other member states are making of what's happening today.
If they come to the view that Britain cannot stick to its side of the bargain, what will they do?
Say "This is the deal. Take it or leave it. And if you don't take it before 29 Marchit's the hardest of Brexits for you. After that date come back to talk to us when you're serious. Our focus will be on protecting ourselves and our citizens."
Or what?
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Much as it sickens me I think the misjudgement might be from the remainer opponents of the deal.
If May gets replaced the next leader is going to be more hardline on Europe - and the DUP will clearly support a Raab, Davis or Boris (Yes yes I know). They won't be revoking Art 50 before 29th March.0 -
This strengthens Raab's position:
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/10630388833723719680 -
They would only be available if FOM was also included. While that wouldn't bother me, I seriously doubt it would make the majority happy.bigjohnowls said:
CU and SM would pass EU and HOC IMOSouthamObserver said:
Given the red lines May drew (and despite them turning a very light pink), if we are to leave, there is no better deal than this very bad deal. Anyone claiming otherwise is either a fool or a liar.TOPPING said:Blimmin' heck just speed watching it.
May looks a beaten woman. Not making eye contact with anyone, a shadow of her former self, as they say.
Taking a step back, however, if the deal is upsetting everyone, then there must be something to it.0 -
Perhaps she meant excluding those who have just told me they are resigning?Tissue_Price said:This strengthens Raab's position:
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/10630388833723719680 -
0
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Weaselly Mundell, breaking yet another promise. He will be last to leave the trough.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:0 -
"So Raab told No10 he was quitting at the end of cabinet then five mins later May told the nation she had the cabinet's support"
Utterly delusional.0 -
A deal was easy. If she had rocked up at Brussels and said to Barnier "Write me a deal and I will take it back" and said yes to everything the EU wanted. She could have sat at home, done nothing and be in no worse position today.Richard_Nabavi said:
Politically tone-deaf, yes I agree. But a deal was certainly not easy at all, she's done incredibly well to get this far.Jonathan said:
Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
She's made lots of unforced errors, and has never been good at carrying people with her, but her analysis of the best way forward has been spot-on. This is the best implementation of Brexit we can get. She seems to have tripped over on the Brexiteers' bizarre urge to trash what they had been campaigning for for years.
Her deal has failed.0 -
I agree in the main with her dealRichard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
However the reality which she seems to be in total denial about is that it can not get through parliament.
That is not her duty.
Duty is to lead the country to what is possible, not her own deal that has no chance of getting through parliament.0 -
The European Army is happening and the UK is probably going to be involved whether we're in or out of the EU as the alternative would be to fund fully our own defence capabilities. No government, but especially tory ones, have any fondness for that notion.Harris_Tweed said:
Minus the rebate and all that "we're not having an army" stuff.0 -
Given no brexit secretary seems to agree with the government's brexit position why do we need one?TheScreamingEagles said:Called it earlier
https://twitter.com/Laura_K_Hughes/status/10630395114946437120 -
She didn't say unanimous support...grabcocque said:"So Raab told No10 he was quitting at the end of cabinet then five mins later May told the nation she had the cabinet's support"
Utterly delusional.0 -
I totally understand that we will crash out unless we act - have been posting on that for a long time. But whilst its clear that May's deal will not pass the house its also clear that No Deal will also not pass the house. The idea that MPs will vote down the deal and then do nothing else is absurd.kle4 said:
What's funny is you are incorrect about that.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
There are a whole swathe of options as alternatives to this deal or no deal. And literally scores of MPs have lined up to point this out to the PM and she keeps insisting its her way or the highway0 -
How many traitorous pig dogs do we have so far? Five, I think.0
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RochdalePioneers said:
What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
Er, yes we will. Without a deal, without any preparation, if this one is rejected.
If MPs think that we're in an even bigger mess than I thought.0 -
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Does it? So why didn't he publicise his resignation at 7.15 pm last night but waited until 9am today?Tissue_Price said:This strengthens Raab's position:
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/10630388833723719680 -
Don't worry, I don't think there was a lot of that to waste. Her brilliant strategy was "spend a year on totally doomed attempts to dodge the backstop you agreed on, then just give up"JonathanD said:
She should have spent more time realising that negotiations needed to happen both in Brussels and in the UK where it was crucial to find out what Brexit actually meant. Her arrogance when she first became PM and her 'Brexit means Brexit' nonsense meant that however good her negotiating skill with Brussels was, it was wasted.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.0 -
Which has nothing to do with the insults about her being delusional today because she is pressing on until removed.Jonathan said:
A deal was easy. If she had rocked up at Brussels and said to Barnier "Write me a deal and I will take it back" and said yes to everything the EU wanted. She could have sat at home, done nothing and be in no worse position today.Richard_Nabavi said:
Politically tone-deaf, yes I agree. But a deal was certainly not easy at all, she's done incredibly well to get this far.Jonathan said:
Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
She's made lots of unforced errors, and has never been good at carrying people with her, but her analysis of the best way forward has been spot-on. This is the best implementation of Brexit we can get. She seems to have tripped over on the Brexiteers' bizarre urge to trash what they had been campaigning for for years.
Her deal has failed.0 -
Mundell is a weaselly chancer, all his windbaggery about resigning , could you get a bigger liar than this.DavidL said:
I think Raab has misjudged this and the anger shown in that interview will be widely spread.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:0 -
You can't just 'Leave'. Like a divorce you have to agree on the splitting of the bills and assets. That was what TMay was negotiating.Xenon said:
Cameron already went and got the best deal possible from the EU. The voters rejected this best deal and voted to leave.logical_song said:
Mr Jessop is right, Leave argued for all sorts of things but very few argued for 'No Deal' (is that what you mean by 'proerly leave'?)
Mrs May's deal would fulfil the referendum result even if it is Brexit In Name Only and worse than staying.
The leave vote wasn't for yet another renegotiation with the EU. Unfortunately this seems to be what it has become since they've decided not to plan to leave on WTO terms at all.0 -
Boris?malcolmg said:
Mundell is a weaselly chancer, all his windbaggery about resigning , could you get a bigger liar than this.DavidL said:
I think Raab has misjudged this and the anger shown in that interview will be widely spread.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:0 -
Which bit of it don't you like (on the basis that Remain isn't available as a preferable option)?Jonathan said:
A deal was easy. If she had rocked up at Brussels and said to Barnier "Write me a deal and I will take it back" and said yes to everything the EU wanted. She could have sat at home, done nothing and be in no worse position today.Richard_Nabavi said:
Politically tone-deaf, yes I agree. But a deal was certainly not easy at all, she's done incredibly well to get this far.Jonathan said:
Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
She's made lots of unforced errors, and has never been good at carrying people with her, but her analysis of the best way forward has been spot-on. This is the best implementation of Brexit we can get. She seems to have tripped over on the Brexiteers' bizarre urge to trash what they had been campaigning for for years.
Her deal has failed.0 -
I’ll only back Liz if she can get us a good deal for British cheese.Scott_P said:0 -
Mays deal is dead. How does it follow an alternate position unites them and a new leader unites them? It's not possible.Scott_P said:0 -
Hoey speaking against the deal. This has to be the final nail. She's the most committed Labour leaver. I don't think it will even come to a vote now. It would be crushingly defeated.0
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Love this. She's at the dispatch box and the contenders are already organising behind her.numbertwelve said:
I’ll only back Liz if she can get us a good deal for British cheese.Scott_P said:0 -
It's not like there's some other deal that the people resigning from the cabinet will accept, so maybe the EU side just proceeds with their end as if nothing is wrong then waits to see if the British somehow manage to get their shit together as the consequences of No Deal get closer.DavidL said:The problem is what does happen next.
There is supposed to be a special summit on the 25th of this month to ratify the deal. I really can't see that happening if it is evident that the HoC is not going to ratify it. There is no way that other MS are going to waste their time seeking approval of this after today.
Who will even go? It seems unlikely to be May at the moment. What will they want? Time? For what? And what if the answer is no, which it seems increasingly likely to be?0 -
It's not an insult is purely a description of how she is operating. She is PM on the basis of the 317 Tory MPs that sit behind her. Her first, second and third job is to carry them.kle4 said:
Which has nothing to do with the insults about her being delusional today because she is pressing on until removed.Jonathan said:
A deal was easy. If she had rocked up at Brussels and said to Barnier "Write me a deal and I will take it back" and said yes to everything the EU wanted. She could have sat at home, done nothing and be in no worse position today.Richard_Nabavi said:
Politically tone-deaf, yes I agree. But a deal was certainly not easy at all, she's done incredibly well to get this far.Jonathan said:
Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.Yorkcity said:
It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.volcanopete said:Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo
I think she has done her best .
But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.
She is becoming delusional.
She's made lots of unforced errors, and has never been good at carrying people with her, but her analysis of the best way forward has been spot-on. This is the best implementation of Brexit we can get. She seems to have tripped over on the Brexiteers' bizarre urge to trash what they had been campaigning for for years.
Her deal has failed.
She is ploughing on utterly deaf to that.0 -
No deal is default - it doesn't need to pass any house, it occurs unless something else is agreed.RochdalePioneers said:
I totally understand that we will crash out unless we act - have been posting on that for a long time. But whilst its clear that May's deal will not pass the house its also clear that No Deal will also not pass the house. The idea that MPs will vote down the deal and then do nothing else is absurd.kle4 said:
What's funny is you are incorrect about that.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
There are a whole swathe of options as alternatives to this deal or no deal. And literally scores of MPs have lined up to point this out to the PM and she keeps insisting its her way or the highway0 -
I imagine he thought directly undermining the PM's presentation of the agreed Cabinet position would be incendiary and dishonourable. But it shows he made the call himself, without waiting for media / outriders.TheScreamingEagles said:
Does it? So why didn't he publicise his resignation at 7.15 pm last night but waited until 9am today?Tissue_Price said:This strengthens Raab's position:
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/10630388833723719680 -
She's pretty much Labour ERG - so was never likely. It's the more moderate Labour leavers we need to wait from.anothernick said:Hoey speaking against the deal. This has to be the final nail. She's the most committed Labour leaver. I don't think it will even come to a vote now. It would be crushingly defeated.
0 -
Don't forget the Pork Markets.numbertwelve said:
I’ll only back Liz if she can get us a good deal for British cheese.Scott_P said:0 -
Yep, that is exactly what they will do.edmundintokyo said:
It's not like there's some other deal that the people resigning from the cabinet will accept, so maybe the EU side just proceeds with their end as if nothing is wrong then waits to see if the British somehow manage to get their shit together as the consequences of No Deal get closer.DavidL said:The problem is what does happen next.
There is supposed to be a special summit on the 25th of this month to ratify the deal. I really can't see that happening if it is evident that the HoC is not going to ratify it. There is no way that other MS are going to waste their time seeking approval of this after today.
Who will even go? It seems unlikely to be May at the moment. What will they want? Time? For what? And what if the answer is no, which it seems increasingly likely to be?0 -
May has given up. "I refer to my answer earlier" can be her response to most questions now0
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David Baddiel
Verified account
@Baddiel
2h2 hours ago
More
I feel I should take the job of Brexit Secretary now. If only so that when I resign, Theresa May can finally be proved right than No Deal is better than a Baddiel.0 -
No deal doesn't have to pass the house so long as nothing else does. We presume something would - I think referendum- but anyone claiming that is certain is being completely irresponsible because it us a real possibility and mocking May for not accepting that uncertainty as certain is just plain silly.RochdalePioneers said:
I totally understand that we will crash out unless we act - have been posting on that for a long time. But whilst its clear that May's deal will not pass the house its also clear that No Deal will also not pass the house. The idea that MPs will vote down the deal and then do nothing else is absurd.kle4 said:
What's funny is you are incorrect about that.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
There are a whole swathe of options as alternatives to this deal or no deal. And literally scores of MPs have lined up to point this out to the PM and she keeps insisting its her way or the highway0 -
True, 2nd biggest, oops Trump , 3rd biggestkle4 said:
Boris?malcolmg said:
Mundell is a weaselly chancer, all his windbaggery about resigning , could you get a bigger liar than this.DavidL said:
I think Raab has misjudged this and the anger shown in that interview will be widely spread.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:0 -
Didn't that account appear a few months ago.numbertwelve said:
I’ll only back Liz if she can get us a good deal for British cheese.Scott_P said:
Place your trust in Truss.
Don't feta our discretion - back Liz T to get a better deal
We Gouda back Liz Truss
Don't truss May truss Liz!0 -
This comes back to my question earlier with regard to the meaningful vote.RochdalePioneers said:
I totally understand that we will crash out unless we act - have been posting on that for a long time. But whilst its clear that May's deal will not pass the house its also clear that No Deal will also not pass the house. The idea that MPs will vote down the deal and then do nothing else is absurd.kle4 said:
What's funny is you are incorrect about that.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
There are a whole swathe of options as alternatives to this deal or no deal. And literally scores of MPs have lined up to point this out to the PM and she keeps insisting its her way or the highway
It was indicated yesterday that the government will take the amendments before the vote so will a vote take place on a second referendum before the meaningful vote.
If so the second referendum may be lost leaving only deal or no deal
Not an expert on this but it does seem very important0 -
Rory to Environment?kle4 said:
Given no brexit secretary seems to agree with the government's brexit position why do we need one?TheScreamingEagles said:Called it earlier
https://twitter.com/Laura_K_Hughes/status/10630395114946437120 -
The EU won't want the blame for this falling apart so they will continue with their own approval process until the British formally notify them that the deal is off.DavidL said:The problem is what does happen next.
There is supposed to be a special summit on the 25th of this month to ratify the deal. I really can't see that happening if it is evident that the HoC is not going to ratify it. There is no way that other MS are going to waste their time seeking approval of this after today.
Who will even go? It seems unlikely to be May at the moment. What will they want? Time? For what? And what if the answer is no, which it seems increasingly likely to be?0 -
"negotiating" is a bit disingenious, did you mean capitulatinglogical_song said:
You can't just 'Leave'. Like a divorce you have to agree on the splitting of the bills and assets. That was what TMay was negotiating.Xenon said:
Cameron already went and got the best deal possible from the EU. The voters rejected this best deal and voted to leave.logical_song said:
Mr Jessop is right, Leave argued for all sorts of things but very few argued for 'No Deal' (is that what you mean by 'proerly leave'?)
Mrs May's deal would fulfil the referendum result even if it is Brexit In Name Only and worse than staying.
The leave vote wasn't for yet another renegotiation with the EU. Unfortunately this seems to be what it has become since they've decided not to plan to leave on WTO terms at all.0 -
Indeed as I have pointed out for months. Yet the house will pass a binding motion prohibiting no deal. So the government won't be permitted to put its feet up and do nothing.eek said:
No deal is default - it doesn't need to pass any house, it occurs unless something else is agreed.RochdalePioneers said:
I totally understand that we will crash out unless we act - have been posting on that for a long time. But whilst its clear that May's deal will not pass the house its also clear that No Deal will also not pass the house. The idea that MPs will vote down the deal and then do nothing else is absurd.kle4 said:
What's funny is you are incorrect about that.RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
There are a whole swathe of options as alternatives to this deal or no deal. And literally scores of MPs have lined up to point this out to the PM and she keeps insisting its her way or the highway0 -
A general election in December would be interesting.0
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Yeah, it's the Umunna centrists who are most likely to rebel. Though at this point the prospect of enough of them riding to the rescue doesn't look great.Pulpstar said:
She's pretty much Labour ERG - so was never likely. It's the more moderate Labour leavers we need to wait from.anothernick said:Hoey speaking against the deal. This has to be the final nail. She's the most committed Labour leaver. I don't think it will even come to a vote now. It would be crushingly defeated.
0 -
And it's possible that (for opposing reasons) a majority of MPs would welcome No Deal.Cyclefree said:RochdalePioneers said:What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be
Er, yes we will. Without a deal, without any preparation, if this one is rejected.
If MPs think that we're in an even bigger mess than I thought.0 -
Too late time wiseAndy_JS said:A general election in December would be interesting.
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The mouse that roared.grabcocque said:
Blimey, that's fighting talk given Raab is going to be the next PM.Scott_P said:0
