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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab’s resignation sparks off huge movements on the TMay exit,

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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Seems Mrs May has miscalculated badly - she learned nothing from Cameron's follies.

    Time for a clean Brexit and a new PM.
  • Scott_P said:
    Gove could hardly accept a job reporting to Olly Robins.
    Does a Minister report to an Official?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    Andrew said:

    She's no leader, that's been apparent from day one.

    Not convinced anyone else would have done any better though - the range of possible outcomes were heavily constrained by NI, and the EU's demands. Someone else might have done the politics better, but the details? Cameron or Blair weren't exactly interested in the minutiae.

    May is not much of a leader, and her judgement is perhaps poor (the GE springs to mind), but she is competent and realistic, unlike almost all of her sternest critics.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited November 2018

    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
    We will have freedom of movement for at least two years and probably longer.

    And in the end look at May's record. Beyond gimmicks and PR exercises she did little to control non EU immigration during her time at the Home office - it was verging on the highest levels ever. We get to control freedom of movement - if a government wishes to - but in practice will we notice when its gone if we keep it in all but name on a one sided basis.
    HMG can stop the impact of FOM at any time if they change the Social security rules.
    Well of course our ridiculous non contributory working age benefits system which treats people equally whether they have paid in and worked here for 50 years or just arrived from Bratislava has always been the problem.

    Abolish tax credits and sort out the housing (benefit) system and much of the pull factor for FOM would end.
  • TGOHF said:

    Seems Mrs May has miscalculated badly - she learned nothing from Cameron's follies.

    Time for a clean Brexit and a new PM.

    Do you mean no deal and Boris
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    TGOHF said:

    Seems Mrs May has miscalculated badly - she learned nothing from Cameron's follies.

    Time for a clean Brexit and a new PM.

    Do you mean no deal and Boris
    No deal and Corbyn more like
  • brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
    We will have freedom of movement for at least two years and probably longer.

    And in the end look at May's record. Beyond gimmicks and PR exercises she did little to control non EU immigration during her time at the Home office - it was verging on the highest levels ever. We get to control freedom of movement - if a government wishes to - but in practice will we notice when its gone if we keep it in all but name on a one sided basis.
    We could end freedom of movement NOW. As a member of the EU. There are restrictions that the UK government could chose to impose at any time. If May had proclaimed as part of a deal that new restrictions will be imposed on movement, and that we would remove any EU citizens unable to find a job within three months. And then very publicly deport some back to the EU.

    Most people would think job done.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    edited November 2018

    whilst you consider the mess you helped us get into?

    thats just funny, remind me how exactly I shaped the nation's politics ? LOL

    You voted for leave.

    Most of all, you passionately argued for leave on here.

    I've a four year old child, and I'm going through the long and somewhat tortuous process of teaching him that you have to take responsibility for your actions and decisions.

    I can start on you afterwards, if you like? ;)
    sorry, still laughing
    Once you've finished laughing at Tellytubbies, I can start the first lesson.

    (Note: 'Tellytubbies' is not a reference to the HoC. That's more like 'Baby Jake'.)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
    We will have freedom of movement for at least two years and probably longer.

    And in the end look at May's record. Beyond gimmicks and PR exercises she did little to control non EU immigration during her time at the Home office - it was verging on the highest levels ever. We get to control freedom of movement - if a government wishes to - but in practice will we notice when its gone if we keep it in all but name on a one sided basis.
    HMG can stop the impact of FOM at any time if they change the Social security rules.
    Well of course our ridiculous non contributory working age benefits system which treats people equally whether they have paid in and worked here for 50 years or just arrive from Bratislava has always been the problem.

    Abolish tax credits and sort out the housing (benefit) system and much of the pull factor would end.
    our politicos know this and could have avoided all the immigartion grief with some simple reforms
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    If the ERG make it their official policy to support May's replacement, surely the letters would be in within the hour?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth - 2 MPs on my 'Labour will vote for the deal' list - ruling it out. Labour rebels could now be around the 6 mark that Nick Palmer suggested.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Are they all a bunch of cretins? How could any of them not already have done so or need JRM to tell them he has handed his in?
  • He's either dishonest or needs some new glasses . Article 89 applies only to pre-existing cases or cases during the transition period.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,751
    tpfkar said:

    Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth - 2 MPs on my 'Labour will vote for the deal' list - ruling it out. Labour rebels could now be around the 6 mark that Nick Palmer suggested.

    May's reply was effectively "I'm going to call your bluff".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    tpfkar said:

    Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth - 2 MPs on my 'Labour will vote for the deal' list - ruling it out. Labour rebels could now be around the 6 mark that Nick Palmer suggested.

    It won't be six, it'll be zero.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    Are they all a bunch of cretins? How could any of them not already have done so or need JRM to tell them he has handed his in?
    You can see their point of view - the PM has failed to bring back something acceptable to Parly.

    And had the tin ear to even offer it up for a vote.

    She's done a Cameron Redux.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    When would it take place?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    Good, best to get it out the way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Pulpstar said:

    tpfkar said:

    Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth - 2 MPs on my 'Labour will vote for the deal' list - ruling it out. Labour rebels could now be around the 6 mark that Nick Palmer suggested.

    It won't be six, it'll be zero.
    Yes. Why die in a ditch for something that isn't passing anyway?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
    We will have freedom of movement for at least two years and probably longer.

    And in the end look at May's record. Beyond gimmicks and PR exercises she did little to control non EU immigration during her time at the Home office - it was verging on the highest levels ever. We get to control freedom of movement - if a government wishes to - but in practice will we notice when its gone if we keep it in all but name on a one sided basis.
    HMG can stop the impact of FOM at any time if they change the Social security rules.
    Well of course our ridiculous non contributory working age benefits system which treats people equally whether they have paid in and worked here for 50 years or just arrived from Bratislava has always been the problem.

    Abolish tax credits and sort out the housing (benefit) system and much of the pull factor for FOM would end.
    Should the system give more benefits to somebody who moved here as an adult than somebody who leeched off the system with a decade and a bit of state schooling, all other things equal?
  • brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
    We will have freedom of movement for at least two years and probably longer.

    And in the end look at May's record. Beyond gimmicks and PR exercises she did little to control non EU immigration during her time at the Home office - it was verging on the highest levels ever. We get to control freedom of movement - if a government wishes to - but in practice will we notice when its gone if we keep it in all but name on a one sided basis.
    We could end freedom of movement NOW. As a member of the EU. There are restrictions that the UK government could chose to impose at any time. If May had proclaimed as part of a deal that new restrictions will be imposed on movement, and that we would remove any EU citizens unable to find a job within three months. And then very publicly deport some back to the EU.

    Most people would think job done.
    You are misrepresenting the situation. We don't have power to remove EU citizens unable to find a job.
  • Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    When would it take place?
    Probably Friday or Monday.
  • Brexit means Breakfast - a pig's breakfast.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Are they all a bunch of cretins? How could any of them not already have done so or need JRM to tell them he has handed his in?
    You can see their point of view - the PM has failed to bring back something acceptable to Parly.

    And had the tin ear to even offer it up for a vote.

    She's done a Cameron Redux.

    I'm not quibbling over putting in their letters. I'm staggered for one they hadn't done so months ago and that they feel the need to announce it to one another like that when of course they need to put in letters. You can't suggest what they have and not put them in.
  • If the ERG make it their official policy to support May's replacement, surely the letters would be in within the hour?

    The ERG are a minority and hence why they have waited to vnoc. I have little doubt that TM will win a vnoc. However, if she loses a election is needed and could go on for upto three months. The only likely candidate has to be a unity choice for it to be a coronation
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018
    John McDonnell: “If we can’t get a general election, yes we will keep a People’s Vote on the table”

    Translation - If we get in, it's Labour Brexit.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    tpfkar said:

    Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth - 2 MPs on my 'Labour will vote for the deal' list - ruling it out. Labour rebels could now be around the 6 mark that Nick Palmer suggested.

    May's reply was effectively "I'm going to call your bluff".
    She's failed william. Failed to make it very clear to the EU what would pass. And then failed to appreciate her deal is a sh1t sandwich. And failed to bring her party and partners along with her.

    She should have told the nation that she couldn't secure a deal that would pass in parliment.

    Her tin ear has been her downfall. Just as Cameron's was.
  • Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    When would it take place?
    Probably Friday or Monday.
    Whispers.....

    (what if she wins it....)
  • Pulpstar said:

    John McDonnell: “If we can’t get a general election, yes we will keep a People’s Vote on the table”

    Is Jezza out of the loop now?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    PPS to Justice Ministry Ranil Jayawardena has quit government. Just thought I would let you know.
  • If the ERG make it their official policy to support May's replacement, surely the letters would be in within the hour?

    The ERG are a minority and hence why they have waited to vnoc. I have little doubt that TM will win a vnoc. However, if she loses a election is needed and could go on for upto three months. The only likely candidate has to be a unity choice for it to be a coronation
    Hague?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Are they all a bunch of cretins? How could any of them not already have done so or need JRM to tell them he has handed his in?
    You can see their point of view - the PM has failed to bring back something acceptable to Parly.

    And had the tin ear to even offer it up for a vote.

    She's done a Cameron Redux.

    I'm not quibbling over putting in their letters. I'm staggered for one they hadn't done so months ago and that they feel the need to announce it to one another like that when of course they need to put in letters. You can't suggest what they have and not put them in.
    Well you also cant argue that they gave her time and space. She's just not been up to taking tough decisions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    When would it take place?
    Probably Friday or Monday.
    Whispers.....

    (what if she wins it....)
    She puts her deal to the commons, it fails, she resigns.
  • Well, this is fun, isn’t it?
  • Scott_P said:
    Gove could hardly accept a job reporting to Olly Robins.
    Does a Minister report to an Official?
    Raab and Davis were effectively subordinate to Robbins.
  • Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    When would it take place?
    Hopefully today. No point stringing that out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    John McDonnell: “If we can’t get a general election, yes we will keep a People’s Vote on the table”

    Is Jezza out of the loop now?
    Hey I win about 3 grand if he is somehow next PM :p
  • PPS to Justice Ministry Ranil Jayawardena has quit government. Just thought I would let you know.

    We already know.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    glw said:

    Andrew said:

    She's no leader, that's been apparent from day one.

    Not convinced anyone else would have done any better though - the range of possible outcomes were heavily constrained by NI, and the EU's demands. Someone else might have done the politics better, but the details? Cameron or Blair weren't exactly interested in the minutiae.

    May is not much of a leader, and her judgement is perhaps poor (the GE springs to mind), but she is competent and realistic, unlike almost all of her sternest critics.
    Not an unequivocal fan of May, but she does seem to be the only adult in the room at the moment.

    The ERG schismatics are doing what they have always threatened to do: bring the walls crashing down around the rest of us. Reading that last resignation letter, rarely can such intangible, incoherent waffle have been deployed to justify so dangerous a path as that now being advocated.

    I voted Remain but would happily endorse the deal. I voted Conservative since GE 1979 but would never do so for a party led by an ERG cabal.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Tell us when it's Mordaunt, Fox, Hunt, Gove or Mundell.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    PPS to Justice Ministry Ranil Jayawardena has quit government. Just thought I would let you know.

    We already know.
    I think this drip drip is less effective than a big bang all go at once.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    John McDonnell: “If we can’t get a general election, yes we will keep a People’s Vote on the table”

    Is Jezza out of the loop now?
    Hey I win about 3 grand if he is somehow next PM :p
    No minimum time?
  • Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    When would it take place?
    Probably Friday or Monday.
    Whispers.....

    (what if she wins it....)
    I make money.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    TGOHF said:

    tpfkar said:

    Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth - 2 MPs on my 'Labour will vote for the deal' list - ruling it out. Labour rebels could now be around the 6 mark that Nick Palmer suggested.

    May's reply was effectively "I'm going to call your bluff".
    She's failed william. Failed to make it very clear to the EU what would pass. And then failed to appreciate her deal is a sh1t sandwich. And failed to bring her party and partners along with her.

    She should have told the nation that she couldn't secure a deal that would pass in parliment.

    Her tin ear has been her downfall. Just as Cameron's was.
    Eh? It may well be a crap deal and I'm sure it wont pass. But to not even bring one to vote truly would be not doing her job. She has, just not well. As parliament is keen to point out they are sovereign, if the deal is unacceptable it will be up them to tell her and I'm sure they will. Standing up and saying I concern have something for you vote down would have been even stupider .
  • kle4 said:

    Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    When would it take place?
    Probably Friday or Monday.
    Whispers.....

    (what if she wins it....)
    She puts her deal to the commons, it fails, she resigns.
    Or it faile she announces referendum 2.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Pulpstar said:

    John McDonnell: “If we can’t get a general election, yes we will keep a People’s Vote on the table”

    Is Jezza out of the loop now?
    I think with Jezza's inner circle and the Labour membership supporting the people's vote as a fallback if no GE, he can't really resist it. Even now he doesn't rule it out when asked
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2018
    So, VONC, Boris embarrasses himself again, and we get new leader Javid/Raab/Gove/whoever.

    Then what? Same deal on the table, and a lot of time has been wasted. The clock ticks on, we're closer to crash-Brexit.
  • Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    When would it take place?
    Hopefully today. No point stringing that out.
    She needs a day to campaign at least, even IDS got a day.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    Are they all a bunch of cretins? How could any of them not already have done so or need JRM to tell them he has handed his in?
    You can see their point of view - the PM has failed to bring back something acceptable to Parly.

    And had the tin ear to even offer it up for a vote.

    She's done a Cameron Redux.

    I'm not quibbling over putting in their letters. I'm staggered for one they hadn't done so months ago and that they feel the need to announce it to one another like that when of course they need to put in letters. You can't suggest what they have and not put them in.
    Well you also cant argue that they gave her time and space. She's just not been up to taking tough decisions.
    They did give her time but she announced her direction at Chequers. I don't understand why they didn't send in letters then.
  • If the ERG make it their official policy to support May's replacement, surely the letters would be in within the hour?

    The ERG are a minority and hence why they have waited to vnoc. I have little doubt that TM will win a vnoc. However, if she loses a election is needed and could go on for upto three months. The only likely candidate has to be a unity choice for it to be a coronation
    Is it even possible. We would still need a PM, and the role of tempory PM doesn't exist.

    Lizzie might be honour bound to ask Jezza to be PM.
  • Well, this is fun, isn’t it?

    Remember when you said only a Leave win would finally unite the Tory party.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    TGOHF said:

    Seems Mrs May has miscalculated badly - she learned nothing from Cameron's follies.

    Time for a clean Brexit and a new PM.

    The impression set at the front of this statement was of very little support, because her internal critics were front loaded in order of being called. Loyalist after loyalist is lining up now to deliver their support. (Having said that, more critics are called as I write!)

    The numbers don't stack up for May at the moment, but she simply has to tough it out to the bitter end now. I don't believe in unicorns, but faced with the ghost of Brexit future, she still has the squeak of a chance. The parrot is comatose, and maybe it needs 240V through it. If it fails, we deal with the developed reality then.
  • Well, this is fun, isn’t it?

    Remember when you said only a Leave win would finally unite the Tory party.
    United in reenacting the Corn Laws schism that is.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Time for a clean Brexit and a new PM.

    Corbyn in other words
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Rexel56 said:

    glw said:

    Andrew said:

    She's no leader, that's been apparent from day one.

    Not convinced anyone else would have done any better though - the range of possible outcomes were heavily constrained by NI, and the EU's demands. Someone else might have done the politics better, but the details? Cameron or Blair weren't exactly interested in the minutiae.

    May is not much of a leader, and her judgement is perhaps poor (the GE springs to mind), but she is competent and realistic, unlike almost all of her sternest critics.
    Not an unequivocal fan of May, but she does seem to be the only adult in the room at the moment.

    The ERG schismatics are doing what they have always threatened to do: bring the walls crashing down around the rest of us. Reading that last resignation letter, rarely can such intangible, incoherent waffle have been deployed to justify so dangerous a path as that now being advocated.

    I voted Remain but would happily endorse the deal. I voted Conservative since GE 1979 but would never do so for a party led by an ERG cabal.
    It's not just the ERG though. Labour and the Tory remainers are also against it seems. It's still a Tory led shit show, and us leavers are most to blame, but the continuity remainers are risking No deal too.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited November 2018

    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
    We will have freedom of movement for at least two years and probably longer.

    And in the end look at May's record. Beyond gimmicks and PR exercises she did little to control non EU immigration during her time at the Home office - it was verging on the highest levels ever. We get to control freedom of movement - if a government wishes to - but in practice will we notice when its gone if we keep it in all but name on a one sided basis.
    HMG can stop the impact of FOM at any time if they change the Social security rules.
    Well of course our ridiculous non contributory working age benefits system which treats people equally whether they have paid in and worked here for 50 years or just arrived from Bratislava has always been the problem.

    Abolish tax credits and sort out the housing (benefit) system and much of the pull factor for FOM would end.
    Should the system give more benefits to somebody who moved here as an adult than somebody who leeched off the system with a decade and a bit of state schooling, all other things equal?
    Should a country not prioritise its own citizens and long term permanent residents for welfare over new arrivals who have paid nothing in? You clearly disagree? Parents pay taxes while their kids are at school - and the cycle moves on.

    Even in the EU Brits we cannot go to eastern Europe and work (or not), get free permanent healthcare at the point of use just based on residency, claim housing benefit to get a free or subsidised flat even in the expensive capital city and get tax credits to top up our low wages - because quite simply those nations don't offer these at all. Yet our government offers that the other way because of the way our welfare system is structured. That is what has caused the public's unhappiness with FOM why live with mum and dad in a crowded flat in Sofia when the UK taxpayer will happily subsidise you to live potentially rent free in London and massively top up your wages for doing a few hours work in a cafe each week if at all.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Mogg and Boris have both submitted their letters.
  • It's on by looks of things.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    kle4 said:

    Harry Cole hearing whispers the VONC is on

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1063049500502171649

    When would it take place?
    Probably Friday or Monday.
    Whispers.....

    (what if she wins it....)
    She puts her deal to the commons, it fails, she resigns.
    Or it faile she announces referendum 2.
    Maybe. I can see it but while she could be challenged again if she wins the no confidence I find it hard to see her doing so now. I think an interim could try suggesting it.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Well, this is fun, isn’t it?

    I'm not sure fun is the right word but it's certainly more gripping than any fictional drama.

    The Brexit saga will provide enough material for politics courses, academic debate and book writing for generations to come. It will come to be seen as a masterclass in how not to do leadership, politics, international relations and statecraft generally.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    tpfkar said:

    Gareth Snell and Ruth Smeeth - 2 MPs on my 'Labour will vote for the deal' list - ruling it out. Labour rebels could now be around the 6 mark that Nick Palmer suggested.

    May's reply was effectively "I'm going to call your bluff".
    She's failed william. Failed to make it very clear to the EU what would pass. And then failed to appreciate her deal is a sh1t sandwich. And failed to bring her party and partners along with her.

    She should have told the nation that she couldn't secure a deal that would pass in parliment.

    Her tin ear has been her downfall. Just as Cameron's was.
    Eh? It may well be a crap deal and I'm sure it wont pass. But to not even bring one to vote truly would be not doing her job. She has, just not well. As parliament is keen to point out they are sovereign, if the deal is unacceptable it will be up them to tell her and I'm sure they will. Standing up and saying I concern have something for you vote down would have been even stupider .
    She came out last night and said she was recommending the deal.

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I like the way JRM operates. When he's assassinating you he does it precisely, thoroughly and whilst he is looking you square in the eyes.
  • This was whatsapped to me with the message

    'When did you become a government minister?

    https://twitter.com/scottbix/status/1063051422734970880
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Britain faced a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with David Cameron, or chaos with Ed Miliband
  • Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Quite easily.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Scott_P said:
    The people voted for brexit which shows, at the time, that's what the people wanted. The motivation of the pm at the time doesn't erase that 52% of the voting populace wanted some kind of exit and that sort of talk tries to imply no one cares. Clearly they dud given how we voted when given the chance.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
    We will have freedom of movement for at least two years and probably longer.

    And in the end look at May's record. Beyond gimmicks and PR exercises she did little to control non EU immigration during her time at the Home office - it was verging on the highest levels ever. We get to control freedom of movement - if a government wishes to - but in practice will we notice when its gone if we keep it in all but name on a one sided basis.
    HMG can stop the impact of FOM at any time if they change the Social security rules.
    Well of course our ridiculous non contributory working age benefits system which treats people equally whether they have paid in and worked here for 50 years or just arrived from Bratislava has always been the problem.

    Abolish tax credits and sort out the housing (benefit) system and much of the pull factor for FOM would end.
    Should the system give more benefits to somebody who moved here as an adult than somebody who leeched off the system with a decade and a bit of state schooling, all other things equal?
    Should a country not prioritise its own citizens and long term permanent residents for welfare over new arrivals who have paid nothing in? You clearly disagree?

    Sadly for most Brits we cannot go to eastern Europe and work (or not), get free permanent healthcare at the point of use just based on residency, claim housing benefit and get tax credits to top up our low wages - because quite simply those nations don't offer these at all. Yet our government offers that the other way because of the way our welfare system is structured.
    My point is that at age 18 you've made an overall extremely negative net contribution to the treasury if you were born and schooled here, versus if you just moved here. I was wondering if you thought that should be taken into account in your calculations, and if not why not?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    John Lewis trending at no 2 on Twitter

    Which post has he resigned from!!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    If Hague were an MP he would be great, but he isn't an MP and therefore is a terrible idea to drive through an issue where democratic accountability is key.
  • Well, this is fun, isn’t it?

    Remember when you said only a Leave win would finally unite the Tory party.
    The Leave win was usurped by Remainer May who seeks to thwart us leaving in practice and not in name only.

    A real Leave would eventually finally unite the Tory party. But a real Leave isn't what May has sought.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    kle4 said:

    Rexel56 said:

    glw said:

    Andrew said:

    She's no leader, that's been apparent from day one.

    Not convinced anyone else would have done any better though - the range of possible outcomes were heavily constrained by NI, and the EU's demands. Someone else might have done the politics better, but the details? Cameron or Blair weren't exactly interested in the minutiae.

    May is not much of a leader, and her judgement is perhaps poor (the GE springs to mind), but she is competent and realistic, unlike almost all of her sternest critics.
    Not an unequivocal fan of May, but she does seem to be the only adult in the room at the moment.

    The ERG schismatics are doing what they have always threatened to do: bring the walls crashing down around the rest of us. Reading that last resignation letter, rarely can such intangible, incoherent waffle have been deployed to justify so dangerous a path as that now being advocated.

    I voted Remain but would happily endorse the deal. I voted Conservative since GE 1979 but would never do so for a party led by an ERG cabal.
    It's not just the ERG though. Labour and the Tory remainers are also against it seems. It's still a Tory led shit show, and us leavers are most to blame, but the continuity remainers are risking No deal too.
    As I said, she is the only adult in the room... Labour are doing what oppositions do, it's the ERG who are proving again that they will never compromise and that they have been preparing for this moment for a very long time... they relish the chaos
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Cameron certainly bears the heaviest burden of guilt for the current debacle. May inherited an almost impossible situation; however she took every opportunity to make it worse.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Quite easily.
    I mean just imagine the horror we'd be facing now if our PM was a little geeky and we'd enacted Labour's policies a year or two earlier than May intends to
  • Well, this is fun, isn’t it?

    Remember when you said only a Leave win would finally unite the Tory party.
    The Leave win was usurped by Remainer May who seeks to thwart us leaving in practice and not in name only.

    A real Leave would eventually finally unite the Tory party. But a real Leave isn't what May has sought.
    Leavers like Royal Blue and Mortimer support this deal, it is the headbangers who ruining this.

    As I predicted they would.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    The people voted for brexit which shows, at the time, that's what the people wanted. The motivation of the pm at the time doesn't erase that 52% of the voting populace wanted some kind of exit and that sort of talk tries to imply no one cares. Clearly they dud given how we voted when given the chance.

    Not really.

    They voted to stop immigration.

    They voted for £350m for the NHS

    Brexit solves none of the problems they were concerned about
  • I like the way JRM operates. When he's assassinating you he does it precisely, thoroughly and whilst he is looking you square in the eyes.

    Sex on legs mate
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    Well, this is fun, isn’t it?

    Remember when you said only a Leave win would finally unite the Tory party.
    The Leave win was usurped by Remainer May who seeks to thwart us leaving in practice and not in name only.

    A real Leave would eventually finally unite the Tory party. But a real Leave isn't what May has sought.
    You make no sense- seemingly the majority of the cabinet and an uncertain number but probably majority of Tory mps back the deal. Why then would a totally different position unite this majority with the unhappy minority?
  • Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Quite easily.
    Indeed. So that we could revel in today's strong and stable example of government
  • Yep, the voters made that choice at GE2017 last year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited November 2018

    Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Cameron certainly bears the heaviest burden of guilt for the current debacle. May inherited an almost impossible situation; however she took every opportunity to make it worse.
    All of this could have been avoided if Labour had honoured their commitment to hold a referendum on Lisbon.

    If Blair hadn't dicked about the voting system for partisan reasons for European elections UKIP would have never surged.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Cameron offers the nation a sh1t sandwich - gets told to do one.

    May offers the nation a reheated sh1t sandwich every day for the next XX years - gets told to do one.

    What is wrong with Con leaders - why they so tone deaf ?

  • Well, this is fun, isn’t it?

    Remember when you said only a Leave win would finally unite the Tory party.
    Remember when you said you were seriously thinking of voting Leave and were also disappointed with Dave’s deal?
  • Scott_P said:
    I honestly don't know how people like TSE justify voting for Cameron and his referendum over Miliband in 2015.
    Quite easily.
    Indeed. So that we could revel in today's strong and stable example of government
    A Labour government reliant on the SNP would have destroyed the country.

    Remember the Ed Miliband is such a shit he screwed the world by buggering up the Syria vote for partisan reasons.

    Salmond and Sturgeon would have walked all over him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018

    Well, this is fun, isn’t it?

    Remember when you said only a Leave win would finally unite the Tory party.
    The Leave win was usurped by Remainer May who seeks to thwart us leaving in practice and not in name only.

    A real Leave would eventually finally unite the Tory party. But a real Leave isn't what May has sought.
    Leavers like Royal Blue and Mortimer support this deal, it is the headbangers who ruining this.

    As I predicted they would.
    To be fair to most leavers on this board they seem far more capable of compromise than the diehards in the ERG. The happiest leavers on this board are the Labourites who are cock a hoop with the Gov't being in a proper mess.
    The ERG is more Flash and Thompson rather than Mortimer and Royale.
This discussion has been closed.