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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab’s resignation sparks off huge movements on the TMay exit,

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab’s resignation sparks off huge movements on the TMay exit, next GE date & next CON leader betting markets

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Shame.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Damn the Leavers to hell.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    May desperately needs Javid, Gove and Hunt to come out and clearly support her very quickly. Hard to see her seeing out the next 24 hours if they don't.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Damn the Leavers to hell.

    Or geography class, at least.....

    Will be interesting to see May’s response....and if she replaces him...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Damn the Leavers to hell.

    I fear voicing my views of them would rapidly lead to a ban.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    2018 has reappeared for next GE!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    So, Dominic Raab has put his career before his country - having only just learned where his country is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    The deal that Theresa May and Olly Robbins have cooked up is what happens when you task vegans with making a meat pie.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    FPT
    Slackbladder said:

    Roger said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063000726589317120

    If Brexit destroys the cancer of British Euroscepticism then the referendum will have been worth it.
    That's quite profound.
    It won't we'll still be in this cycle in 10 years whatever happens.
    Not if No Deal is the shit show I expect it to be.

    Remember how the Winter of Discontent screwed Labour, just imagine having to deal with deaths caused by No Deal.

    You’ll be like appeasers in 1945 saying we were right to appease Herr Hitler.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    MarqueeMark said:

    The deal that Theresa May and Olly Robbins have cooked up is what happens when you task vegans with making a meat pie.

    You're a leaver. You argued for leave.

    You own this, and you own the consequences.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    This is the result of hard brexiteers and hard remainers failing to compromise.

    I suspect a second referendum is becoming odds on

    I doubt TM can survive this
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Damn the Leavers to hell.

    I fear voicing my views of them would rapidly lead to a ban.

    I feel very comfortable about what I tweeted about the Buccaneers on Monday:
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1062404068881113093

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Damn the Leavers to hell.

    Or geography class, at least.....

    Will be interesting to see May’s response....and if she replaces him...
    Gove makes sense on many levels.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DanSmith said:

    May desperately needs Javid, Gove and Hunt to come out and clearly support her very quickly. Hard to see her seeing out the next 24 hours if they don't.

    Ironically, the PM might have been thrown a lifeline on the 1922 front if 48 backbenchers pause from their letter-writing to see if she will go anyway.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    My Year of exit date market position is an absolute and utter mess.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1062994962726424576?s=20
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    I wake up, and what do I find?

    I have no words. What a depressing time to be British.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Can someone explain to me why the hasn't government been preparing for no deal along with the negotiations with the EU on a deal?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    The only surprising thing about this is that anyone is surprised.

    Raab is Davis' minion. Resigning is what these guys do.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Who knew the Tories could implode over Europe....

    daily episode 2,567,456

    it's SO boring.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Damn the Leavers to hell.

    I fear voicing my views of them would rapidly lead to a ban.
    Don't worry there are no Leavers here. They're still out celebrating the battle of Waterloo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    DOMINIC Raab has unveiled plans to throw petrol bombs at your house and then petrol bomb the fire engine as soon as it arrives.

    Raab said he could not ‘in good conscience’ stand by while your house was free of flames and then allow firemen to restrict its ability to burn to the ground.

    https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/dominic-raab-to-petrol-bomb-your-house-then-petrol-bomb-the-fire-brigade-20181115179461
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    DanSmith said:

    May desperately needs Javid, Gove and Hunt to come out and clearly support her very quickly. Hard to see her seeing out the next 24 hours if they don't.

    I think all three are tainted with her now so it won't help.

    I've thought for a long while that Mike's wrong about Theresa. Or, rather, he's spot on about her ability to stick in power but wrong because all the while her core support has been eroding. It was only a matter of time before the thing blew up in her face.

    We now need a leader with the balls to stand up to Brussels. Either that or we stay in the EU and reform it from within. What we simply cannot have is this awful deal that is worse than being in the EU.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Xenon said:

    Can someone explain to me why the hasn't government been preparing for no deal along with the negotiations with the EU on a deal?

    We have and we are
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Nothing has changed.

    (I am brexit horny again)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    If there was a vonc in a May taking place right this second, I think she'd survive. But I have a feeling that situation could get more fluid imminently. There are plenty of Tory MPs beyond the ERG who probably shudder at the thought of her being utterly unmovable for a year.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    Mysticrose said:

    DanSmith said:

    May desperately needs Javid, Gove and Hunt to come out and clearly support her very quickly. Hard to see her seeing out the next 24 hours if they don't.

    I think all three are tainted with her now so it won't help.

    I've thought for a long while that Mike's wrong about Theresa. Or, rather, he's spot on about her ability to stick in power but wrong because all the while her core support has been eroding. It was only a matter of time before the thing blew up in her face.

    We now need a leader with the balls to stand up to Brussels. Either that or we stay in the EU and reform it from within. What we simply cannot have is this awful deal that is worse than being in the EU.
    We need to stay in the EU and reform ourselves.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Xenon said:

    Can someone explain to me why the hasn't government been preparing for no deal along with the negotiations with the EU on a deal?

    We have and we are
    Then why are people talking about absolute chaos and deaths in the event of no deal?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Jonathan said:

    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.

    A full, open and honest offer to Nick Clegg.

    Practically, there are only two parties she can make an offer to: Labour and the SNP. What could she possibly offer them?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Xenon said:

    Can someone explain to me why the hasn't government been preparing for no deal along with the negotiations with the EU on a deal?

    Because May has known for a number of months now that she would get a deal, so why should she take no deal seriously?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. NorthWales, I wonder about that too.

    Suppose the deal either doesn't make it to the Commons or is defeated there. What would MPs do? Vote for a second referendum or go along with No Deal?

    I suspect the former may be more likely.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    So, knowing they don’t have votes to defeat May in a confidence vote, the ERG has been waiting for this point. Raab goes along with draft agreement until it is announced, let’s it be agreed by Cabinet, and then resigns with a letter designed to put maximum pressure on May to resign... we now find out how tough she is.

    With others, predicted from the outset that Brexit was inherently chaotic and couldn’t be done (safely). Was wavering on that view last night. Now not so much.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Jonathan said:

    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.

    Labour aren't playing ball, so it'll have to be the people.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    SouthamObserver said:

    So, Dominic Raab has put his career before his country - having only just learned where his country is.

    I doubt it

    he;s just ended up looking a prat
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, I wonder about that too.

    Suppose the deal either doesn't make it to the Commons or is defeated there. What would MPs do? Vote for a second referendum or go along with No Deal?

    I suspect the former may be more likely.

    I can smell a second referendum. :smile:
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Slackbladder said:

    Fenster said:

    May to give a statement at 10.30am.

    Odds on resigning?
    If she resigns and the No2 takes her place as a stop gap until a successor is elected, is the stop gap considered next PM for betting markets?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Xenon said:

    Can someone explain to me why the hasn't government been preparing for no deal along with the negotiations with the EU on a deal?

    Because Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear because, inter alia, we held all the aces and it should be the easiest trade deal in history.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Xenon said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Xenon said:

    Can someone explain to me why the hasn't government been preparing for no deal along with the negotiations with the EU on a deal?

    We have and we are
    Then why are people talking about absolute chaos and deaths in the event of no deal?
    Because there is a limit to what you can do?

    You can prepare for your house burning down, doesn't stop it being a shit day
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dr5tFJ1WkAEfnBe.jpg

    Don't blame me, I voted for chaos with Ed Miliband. :(
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited November 2018
    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.

    A full, open and honest offer to Nick Clegg.

    Practically, there are only two parties she can make an offer to: Labour and the SNP. What could she possibly offer them?
    A referendum or an election.

    The SNP an IndyRef to opt-out of the deal.
    Labour a 1 Mar General Election.

    or

    A second referendum. Deal, No Deal or No Brexit.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    DanSmith said:

    Xenon said:

    Can someone explain to me why the hasn't government been preparing for no deal along with the negotiations with the EU on a deal?

    Because May has known for a number of months now that she would get a deal, so why should she take no deal seriously?
    Getting a deal and getting the deal through Parliament are two entirely different things. That's why No Deal needs to be taken seriously.

    As I have previously observed, the UK appears to be in the wonderful position of neither being able to leave or remain in the EU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Lord Bridges of Headley New entry for next PM at 1000-1 !
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Last week I cam out with the ''To lose one Johnson...' line.

    It would be remiss of me not to repeat it, but replacing 'Johnson' with 'Brexit Secretary'.

    This government is an utter shambles.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Don't blame me, I voted for Ed too.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    FPT:
    rottenborough said:

    Beverley_C said:

    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Having discovered that Britain is an island close to France, Dominic Raab has now worked out that he has spent the last few months working ion a deal that essentially keeps the UK in the Customs Union and Single Market for the forseeable future. If he were to become PM he will need ot speed up his ability to learn and absorb information.

    Post of the day so far. :lol:
    I agree. Southam for POTY!!! :D:D
    Strikes me this whole exercise has been a process of explaining to Brexiteers that we pooled some sovereignty with EU in order that we didn't have take rules from the huge trading block next door to us without any say.

    They must be spectacularly thick if it takes a hammer this big to ram it through their skulls....
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Jonathan said:

    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.

    A full, open and honest offer to Nick Clegg.

    Practically, there are only two parties she can make an offer to: Labour and the SNP. What could she possibly offer them?
    A referendum or an election.

    The SNP an IndyRef to opt-out of the deal.
    Labour a 1 Mar General Election.

    or

    A second referendum. Deal, No Deal or No Brexit.
    she would and could never offer an opt out (and break up the union) to the SNP. NO way No how.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1063008399791579136
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    RoyalBlue said:

    I wake up, and what do I find?

    I have no words. What a depressing time to be British.

    Been like that since June 24th 2016.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MarqueeMark said:

    The deal that Theresa May and Olly Robbins have cooked up is what happens when you task vegans with making a meat pie.

    I mean, I'm pretty sure there are vegan chefs who do a fine job making meat dishes
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    SouthamObserver said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Damn the Leavers to hell.

    I fear voicing my views of them would rapidly lead to a ban.

    I feel very comfortable about what I tweeted about the Buccaneers on Monday:
    https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1062404068881113093

    I've just given it a like!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    philiph said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Fenster said:

    May to give a statement at 10.30am.

    Odds on resigning?
    If she resigns and the No2 takes her place as a stop gap until a successor is elected, is the stop gap considered next PM for betting markets?
    The markets are generally formulated to exclude caretakers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    McVey gone
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    MC Vey gone.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Beverley_C said:

    FPT:

    rottenborough said:

    Beverley_C said:

    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Having discovered that Britain is an island close to France, Dominic Raab has now worked out that he has spent the last few months working ion a deal that essentially keeps the UK in the Customs Union and Single Market for the forseeable future. If he were to become PM he will need ot speed up his ability to learn and absorb information.

    Post of the day so far. :lol:
    I agree. Southam for POTY!!! :D:D
    Strikes me this whole exercise has been a process of explaining to Brexiteers that we pooled some sovereignty with EU in order that we didn't have take rules from the huge trading block next door to us without any say.

    They must be spectacularly thick if it takes a hammer this big to ram it through their skulls....

    They are thick beyond imagination. But they are totally shielded from the consequences of their stupidity and mendaciousness.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    grabcocque said:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dr5tFJ1WkAEfnBe.jpg

    Don't blame me, I voted for chaos with Ed Miliband. :(

    Yes, "Strong and stable" must be one of the least successful slogans in recfent times, both in terms of impressing voters and in terms of what actually happened...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    McVey resigned
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Jonathan said:

    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.

    A full, open and honest offer to Nick Clegg.

    Practically, there are only two parties she can make an offer to: Labour and the SNP. What could she possibly offer them?
    A referendum or an election.

    The SNP an IndyRef to opt-out of the deal.
    Labour a 1 Mar General Election.

    or

    A second referendum. Deal, No Deal or No Brexit.
    I thought of that, but I don't think the SNP would take Indyref2 now, they want to do it in a couple of years when the Brexit backlash is at its nastiest in Scotland.

    But yes: if May made an agreement to form a grand coalition with Corbyn that lasts until the day after the deal is voted through Parliament followed by an immediate dissolution and early Jan election?

    Corbyn would go for that.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    McVey Gone!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1063008399791579136

    Some good news at last
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited November 2018
    Government Tories have such a tin ear.

    She
    does
    not
    have
    the
    votes.

    That is why she is weak. She has to deal with someone. It might now be too late.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The moment DWP people reported she hadn't turned up for work we knew the jig was up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    SouthamObserver said:

    Beverley_C said:

    FPT:

    rottenborough said:

    Beverley_C said:

    rottenborough said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Having discovered that Britain is an island close to France, Dominic Raab has now worked out that he has spent the last few months working ion a deal that essentially keeps the UK in the Customs Union and Single Market for the forseeable future. If he were to become PM he will need ot speed up his ability to learn and absorb information.

    Post of the day so far. :lol:
    I agree. Southam for POTY!!! :D:D
    Strikes me this whole exercise has been a process of explaining to Brexiteers that we pooled some sovereignty with EU in order that we didn't have take rules from the huge trading block next door to us without any say.

    They must be spectacularly thick if it takes a hammer this big to ram it through their skulls....

    They are thick beyond imagination. But they are totally shielded from the consequences of their stupidity and mendaciousness.

    I agree, thick as shit
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Anybody going to be watching May in the HoC soon?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited November 2018
    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.

    A full, open and honest offer to Nick Clegg.

    Practically, there are only two parties she can make an offer to: Labour and the SNP. What could she possibly offer them?
    A referendum or an election.

    The SNP an IndyRef to opt-out of the deal.
    Labour a 1 Mar General Election.

    or

    A second referendum. Deal, No Deal or No Brexit.
    I thought of that, but I don't think the SNP would take Indyref2 now, they want to do it in a couple of years when the Brexit backlash is at its nastiest in Scotland.

    But yes: if May made an agreement to form a grand coalition with Corbyn that lasts until the day after the deal is voted through Parliament followed by an immediate dissolution and early Jan election?

    Corbyn would go for that.
    She would be out of office the day she suggested it
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Shit Corbs is going to be PM soon isn't he.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    grabcocque said:

    Nothing has changed.

    (I am brexit horny again)

    Following the Brexit saga is completely riveting, much better than any fictional drama. It will form the basis for theses, books and political debates for generations. As a manual of how not to do politics, government and statecraft it could not be bettered.

    Pity the country though.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I wake up, and what do I find?

    I have no words. What a depressing time to be British.

    Been like that since June 24th 2016.
    Sometimes to cheer myself up I like to go back and read the thread from election night 2015. Simple times.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Esther McVey goes. No real surprise as she had a storm with TM yesterday.
    I'd expect Penny Mordaunt to follow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    edited November 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    numbertwelve said:

    If I were the EU and wanted to give May the biggest amount of help without wanting to be seen to be actually helping, I’d be trying to get an EU leader or two or even the full 27 to be saying something along the lines of we’re not extending Article 50.

    That puts paid to the whole “oh if we vote this deal down we can ask the nice EU for a bit more time so that we can do some more interminable negotiations and get the magic bean deal that’s just out there!”

    I agree. The EU must be fed up to the back teeth with Britain. They should simply say that this is the deal - take it or leave it - so that our self-indulgent politicians realise that the choice is this or No Deal. Those who think that a different government will be able to get some better deal are delusional. If anything the EU may skew the deal even more in its favour. But I rather suspect that they want an end to this interminable saga, made worse by the failure of so many Brexiteers to live in the real world.

    Raab - a man who apparently didn't realise the importance of the Dover-Calais route is, frankly, no loss.

    The Brexiteers are a big problem. But it's the lack of support from continuity remainers and the 'a new negotiation will work out fine don't worry' crowd that prevents this deal from getting through. The Brexiteers we knew would be against. These neo Brexiteers as I shall call them(for they adopt the same tactics of bland assumption it will work out) think the EU will vastly change position under pm boris/Corbyn. I bet not even the EU saying otherwise would convince them.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    RoyalBlue said:

    I wake up, and what do I find?

    I have no words. What a depressing time to be British.

    I imagine it's always a depressing time to be an anachronism
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    edited November 2018
    https://twitter.com/EstherMcVey1/status/1063008263225126912
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,290
    OchEye said:

    McVey Gone!

    On the hour.

    What time exactly did Raab resign?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.

    A full, open and honest offer to Nick Clegg.

    Practically, there are only two parties she can make an offer to: Labour and the SNP. What could she possibly offer them?
    A referendum or an election.

    The SNP an IndyRef to opt-out of the deal.
    Labour a 1 Mar General Election.

    or

    A second referendum. Deal, No Deal or No Brexit.
    I thought of that, but I don't think the SNP would take Indyref2 now, they want to do it in a couple of years when the Brexit backlash is at its nastiest in Scotland.

    But yes: if May made an agreement to form a grand coalition with Corbyn that lasts until the day after the deal is voted through Parliament followed by an immediate dissolution and early Jan election?

    Corbyn would go for that.
    She would be out of office the day she suggested it
    It's looking like she's going to be out of office today anyway. She's got nothing left to lose. ROLL THOSE DICE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Either we have a second ref, the Tories are fucked. Or a no deal Brexit, fucked again.

    Fucked, fucked, fucked.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Tracey Crouch for DWP
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Slackbladder said:

    Shit Corbs is going to be PM soon isn't he.

    He might be already: it is hard to keep up with all the breaking news.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Well if my party delivers, either by design or accident, No Deal I think I’ll have to quit.

    Sad.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pro_Rata said:

    OchEye said:

    McVey Gone!

    On the hour.

    What time exactly did Raab resign?
    9am, on the hour.

    Yes, it's going to be one an hour until May's corpse stops twitching.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Deal or stay in referendum is the way to go. "This is best deal we could negotiate. No deal cannot be countenanced by a responsible government. Now full picture is available the people should decide." That will get through Parliament.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Jonathan said:

    Don't blame me, I voted for Ed too.

    I'm even more sainted, I voted for the peoples republic of bercow party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    I genuinely don't get why these people didn't resign last night. If they couldn't support it no need to take stock of media or party reaction or likelihood of passing and it's not like it is one last favour to May to give her one night of fake unity. Why the delay?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    "Crushed"

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dr1QV9cXcAYj9pz.jpg:large
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Tracey Crouch for DWP

    Link ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Slackbladder said:

    Shit Corbs is going to be PM soon isn't he.

    Early 2019 I think.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Tracey Crouch for DWP

    Link ?
    I mean I'm launching her campaign. Not an appointment!!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    NickPalmer said:

    grabcocque said:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dr5tFJ1WkAEfnBe.jpg

    Don't blame me, I voted for chaos with Ed Miliband. :(

    Yes, "Strong and stable" must be one of the least successful slogans in recfent times, both in terms of impressing voters and in terms of what actually happened...
    The contrast with "long term economic plan" is interesting. LTEP is obviously much clunkier and less pithy... but it's also basically impossible to parody, and you can actually slip it into a sentence without it sounding forced and unnatural
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    grabcocque said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.

    A full, open and honest offer to Nick Clegg.

    Practically, there are only two parties she can make an offer to: Labour and the SNP. What could she possibly offer them?
    A referendum or an election.

    The SNP an IndyRef to opt-out of the deal.
    Labour a 1 Mar General Election.

    or

    A second referendum. Deal, No Deal or No Brexit.
    I thought of that, but I don't think the SNP would take Indyref2 now, they want to do it in a couple of years when the Brexit backlash is at its nastiest in Scotland.

    But yes: if May made an agreement to form a grand coalition with Corbyn that lasts until the day after the deal is voted through Parliament followed by an immediate dissolution and early Jan election?

    Corbyn would go for that.
    She would be out of office the day she suggested it
    It's looking like she's going to be out of office today anyway. She's got nothing left to lose. ROLL THOSE DICE.
    She is not going to make a suicidal offer to labour, though how long she stays in office is another question
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Well if my party delivers, either by design or accident, No Deal I think I’ll have to quit.

    Sad.

    I think if a Brexiteer takes charge and goes for that - Grieve, Soubry, Clarke will seriously consider VONCing the Gov't. Wolloston, Jo Johnson might even VONC his own brother !
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    Either we have a second ref, the Tories are fucked. Or a no deal Brexit, fucked again.

    Fucked, fucked, fucked.

    There is still the option I've suggested before: kick it into the long grass. Extend A50 and set up a royal commission.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Shit Corbs is going to be PM soon isn't he.

    He might be already: it is hard to keep up with all the breaking news.
    Not if enough MPs block dissolution and propose second referendum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    grabcocque said:

    Jonathan said:

    The fundamental fact in all this is that May does not have the votes in the HoC. She needs to make a bold offer to someone.

    A full, open and honest offer to Nick Clegg.

    Practically, there are only two parties she can make an offer to: Labour and the SNP. What could she possibly offer them?
    A referendum or an election.

    The SNP an IndyRef to opt-out of the deal.
    Labour a 1 Mar General Election.

    or

    A second referendum. Deal, No Deal or No Brexit.
    I thought of that, but I don't think the SNP would take Indyref2 now, they want to do it in a couple of years when the Brexit backlash is at its nastiest in Scotland.

    But yes: if May made an agreement to form a grand coalition with Corbyn that lasts until the day after the deal is voted through Parliament followed by an immediate dissolution and early Jan election?

    Corbyn would go for that.
    She would be out of office the day she suggested it
    She's out of office soon anyway, so what?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    NorthofStoke said:

    Deal or stay in referendum is the way to go. "This is best deal we could negotiate. No deal cannot be countenanced by a responsible government. Now full picture is available the people should decide." That will get through Parliament.

    Frankly now, i'm not sure it would. Labour wouldn't go for it, and the ERG wouldn't go for it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    grabcocque said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    OchEye said:

    McVey Gone!

    On the hour.

    What time exactly did Raab resign?
    9am, on the hour.

    Yes, it's going to be one an hour until May's corpse stops twitching.
    NI Minister 8am
    Raab 9am
    McVey 10am

    Graham Brady statement today??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Betfair May year out market now redder than a Babboon's arse.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited November 2018
    NorthofStoke said:

    Deal or stay in referendum is the way to go. "This is best deal we could negotiate. No deal cannot be countenanced by a responsible government. Now full picture is available the people should decide." That will get through Parliament.

    grabcocque said:

    The moment DWP people reported she hadn't turned up for work we knew the jig was up.

    Are they allowed to sanction her for not turning up to work?

    Whatever you say about Esther she has a large flowery signature.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Oy Vey!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    philiph said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Fenster said:

    May to give a statement at 10.30am.

    Odds on resigning?
    If she resigns and the No2 takes her place as a stop gap until a successor is elected, is the stop gap considered next PM for betting markets?
    The markets are generally formulated to exclude caretakers.
    There's no such thing as a caretaker PM. Either you're appointed to the job or not.

    Technically, there's no requirement to have a PM - there are periods in the 18th century when the country went months without one, and under Churchill and Macmillan, the government operated for weeks without an effective one - so it'd be possible for someone to head the govt on a temporary basis from a different office, but a PM appointed is a PM.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Tracey Crouch for DWP

    Link ?
    I mean I'm launching her campaign. Not an appointment!!
    May I offer my support...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    kle4 said:

    I genuinely don't get why these people didn't resign last night. If they couldn't support it no need to take stock of media or party reaction or likelihood of passing and it's not like it is one last favour to May to give her one night of fake unity. Why the delay?

    Yes you do rather get the impression that they were waiting for the newspapers' reactions.

    Dominic Raab decided last night apparently and refused to board the plane waiting to take him to shake hands with Barnier. That's pure May-Robbins connivery.
This discussion has been closed.