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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Raab’s resignation sparks off huge movements on the TMay exit,

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  • That’s “Carpetbagger” Raab, to you.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    edited November 2018

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo

    It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.

    I think she has done her best .
    But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.

    She is becoming delusional.
    No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.
    Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.

    Politically tone-deaf, yes I agree. But a deal was certainly not easy at all, she's done incredibly well to get this far.

    She's made lots of unforced errors, and has never been good at carrying people with her, but her analysis of the best way forward has been spot-on. This is the best implementation of Brexit we can get. She seems to have tripped over on the Brexiteers' bizarre urge to trash what they had been campaigning for for years.
    A deal was easy. If she had rocked up at Brussels and said to Barnier "Write me a deal and I will take it back" and said yes to everything the EU wanted. She could have sat at home, done nothing and be in no worse position today.

    Her deal has failed.
    Which bit of it don't you like (on the basis that Remain isn't available as a preferable option)?
    Remain is available.

    ---

    The Deal = Remain minus Democratic representation.

    The government could obtain the same result, by staying in the EU and never turning up at the council of ministers / EU parliament.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    malcolmg said:

    Xenon said:


    Mr Jessop is right, Leave argued for all sorts of things but very few argued for 'No Deal' (is that what you mean by 'proerly leave'?)
    Mrs May's deal would fulfil the referendum result even if it is Brexit In Name Only and worse than staying.

    Cameron already went and got the best deal possible from the EU. The voters rejected this best deal and voted to leave.

    The leave vote wasn't for yet another renegotiation with the EU. Unfortunately this seems to be what it has become since they've decided not to plan to leave on WTO terms at all.
    You can't just 'Leave'. Like a divorce you have to agree on the splitting of the bills and assets. That was what TMay was negotiating.
    "negotiating" is a bit disingenious, did you mean capitulating
    Yeah, just because May has spent a year trying to square a circle doesn't make it a heroic achievement for her to now say "ah fuck it, never mind"
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Ooooh, I want to know what Gove is.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Umunna doesn't sound like he's preparing to ride to May's aid on a white horse.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo

    It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.

    I think she has done her best .
    But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.

    She is becoming delusional.
    No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.
    Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.

    Politically tone-deaf, yes I agree. But a deal was certainly not easy at all, she's done incredibly well to get this far.

    She's made lots of unforced errors, and has never been good at carrying people with her, but her analysis of the best way forward has been spot-on. This is the best implementation of Brexit we can get. She seems to have tripped over on the Brexiteers' bizarre urge to trash what they had been campaigning for for years.
    A deal was easy. If she had rocked up at Brussels and said to Barnier "Write me a deal and I will take it back" and said yes to everything the EU wanted. She could have sat at home, done nothing and be in no worse position today.

    Her deal has failed.
    Which bit of it don't you like (on the basis that Remain isn't available as a preferable option)?
    Remain is available.

    The Deal = Remain minus Democratic representation.

    The government could obtain the same result, by staying in the EU and never turning up at the council of ministers / EU parliament.
    I honestly don't understand this.

    There are obvious counterexamples.

    After the end of the transition we neither make budget contributions nor have freedom of movement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Please can Tory MPs put the poor woman out of her misery? #MayMustGo

    It is sad to see a PM in parliament been so torn apart , with MPs laughing at her replies.

    I think she has done her best .
    But she seems not to be taking in the reality of the parliamentary situation.

    She is becoming delusional.
    No, she wants to carry out her duty. She has done her best, and in fact against the odds come back with a workable deal which would implement Brexit without trashing the economy too much. There's no room to change it, apart perhaps from some minor tweaking. So I think she's present it to the House. If the House rejects it, well, that's their decision, and their responsibility. The implications would disastrous but she'll have done her duty. And of course, history will vindicate her position.
    Nope. She has been and remains politically tone deaf. A deal was always easy. The trick was to find a deal that passes both the EU and the HoC.

    Politically tone-deaf, yes I agree. But a deal was certainly not easy at all, she's done incredibly well to get this far.

    She's made lots of unforced errors, and has never been good at carrying people with her, but her analysis of the best way forward has been spot-on. This is the best implementation of Brexit we can get. She seems to have tripped over on the Brexiteers' bizarre urge to trash what they had been campaigning for for years.
    A deal was easy. If she had rocked up y.

    Her deal has failed.
    Which has nothing to do with the insults about her being delusional today because she is pressing on until removed.
    It's not an insult is purely a description of how she is operating. She is PM on the basis of the 317 Tory MPs that sit behind her. Her first, second and third job is to carry them.

    She is ploughing on utterly deaf to that.
    No it is a needless insult, and I don't understand why people think it is acceptable. She does not intend to quit, clearly, so she Will do as she likes until they fire her as party leader. That may well be stupid and wrong but it is not delusional which suggests she has no idea this will not pass and thinks everything is fine when any number of comments saying that she looks beaten show is not true. She knows, but wants her opponents to take her down not fall on her sword willingly. That stubbornness may also be wrong but it is not delusional.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Ooooh, I want to know what Gove is.
    Gove is all you need.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Scott_P said:
    Put us out of our misery, Conservative Party.
  • Andrew Bridgen called a disloyal twerp by a fellow Tory MP.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    Gove has been offered Brexit Secretary but has not yet accepted. Thinking about whether to resign?

    Brexit or Bust.
  • You can always rely on Gove to create the greatest amount of drama out of any given situation.
  • Adam Boulton reporting JRM has submitted his letter to Graham Brady
  • Andrew Bridgen called a disloyal twerp by a fellow Tory MP.

    And told to sit down
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    I've been working on a solution to the Brexit problem. Actually we could have our cake and eat it. All the brexiteers have to do is leave. The rest of us can stay. Then we will have brexisupermarkets where they can buy GM bread and vegetables, chlorinated chicken, etc. They can have brexijobs which have no rights or protection. And blue passports made in France.
  • Scott_P said:
    Dominic Cummings at DExEU will add to the gaiety of the nation.
  • Gove has been offered Brexit Secretary but has not yet accepted. Thinking about whether to resign?

    Brexit or Bust.

    Would be truly piss funny if having been offered the job instead he choses to resign
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    whilst you consider the mess you helped us get into?

    thats just funny, remind me how exactly I shaped the nation's politics ? LOL

    You voted for leave.

    Most of all, you passionately argued for leave on here.

    I've a four year old child, and I'm going through the long and somewhat tortuous process of teaching him that you have to take responsibility for your actions and decisions.

    I can start on you afterwards, if you like? ;)
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoey speaking against the deal. This has to be the final nail. She's the most committed Labour leaver. I don't think it will even come to a vote now. It would be crushingly defeated.

    She's pretty much Labour ERG - so was never likely. It's the more moderate Labour leavers we need to wait from.
    Yeah, it's the Umunna centrists who are most likely to rebel. Though at this point the prospect of enough of them riding to the rescue doesn't look great.
    Umunna is one of the leaders of the people's vote campaign. They are convinced they are on the verge of victory, they will never support this deal. They want to frame the debate as either a second referendum or Armageddon,
  • People thing all politicians break all promises all of the time. That's their background assumption. I think 90% do not trust them to tell the truth IIRC
  • Adam Boulton reporting JRM has submitted his letter to Graham Brady

    47+1 = 47
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Remain is available.

    The Deal = Remain minus Democratic representation.

    The government could obtain the same result, by staying in the EU and never turning up at the council of ministers / EU parliament.

    C'mon, you know that's nonsense. Quite apart from anything else, Theresa May seems to have achieved what was widely regarded as impossible and got the EU to agree to pretty good access to the Single Market (including some good progress on services) and low-friction customs arrangements, without us being subject to the CFP, CAP, most non-trade related EU diktats, and - most crucially of all - freedom of movement. You might not like it, and it's of course not Remain, but I really can't see how any objective commentator could argue that's not a good implementation of Brexit.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Gove has been offered Brexit Secretary but has not yet accepted. Thinking about whether to resign?

    Brexit or Bust.

    Would be truly piss funny if having been offered the job instead he choses to resign
    To misplace two Brexit secretaries on one day would be the height of carelessness.
  • Adam Boulton reporting JRM has submitted his letter to Graham Brady

    47+1 = 47
    I think if it is the ERG's official position he will declare the 48
  • Scott_P said:
    I’ll only back Liz if she can get us a good deal for British cheese.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3KBuQHHKx0
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Fenman said:

    I've been working on a solution to the Brexit problem. Actually we could have our cake and eat it. All the brexiteers have to do is leave. The rest of us can stay. Then we will have brexisupermarkets where they can buy GM bread and vegetables, chlorinated chicken, etc. They can have brexijobs which have no rights or protection. And blue passports made in France.

    You could just move to Ireland for five years - a right which remains - and apply for an Irish passport.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Scott_P said:
    She should. Even if she wins, which I doubt given it is much just the ERG who hate this deal, her time is limited when she has no majority on this or, given the DUP, anything anymore, but make people stand up and be counted.
  • I'm trying to decide whether Theresa May's day is brought to her by Boyz II Men or The Traveling Wilburys.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    Xenon said:


    So leave didn't really win the referendum in your eyes because you didn't like the campaign, so we can't properly leave.

    I'm unsure how you come to that fantastic leap of 'logic'.
  • Adam Boulton reporting JRM has submitted his letter to Graham Brady

    47+1 = 47
    I think if it is the ERG's official position he will declare the 48
    Joking aside, I think it's quite likely we get 48 today. But a VONC is now a proxy for the deal, not a verdict on TM. I think she must have a comfortable Conservative majority for it.
  • If you look at the Tory benches a lot of hard and brutal questions have been asked by people no longer sitting there. Perhaps they handed in their letters on the way out of the chamber.

    "I'm sorry Prime Minister the tally is now 132"
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Scott_P said:
    So you got to let me know:
    Should I stay or should I Gove?
  • People thing all politicians break all promises all of the time. That's their background assumption. I think 90% do not trust them to tell the truth IIRC
    From the same poll, you do wonder about the other 7%:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1063044047919632384
  • Nigelb said:
    Haven't they been fighting from within all along? And this is the outcome. Nothing's going to change without Leavers taking back control from Remainer May and Olly Robbins.
    And then what
    It depends upon our EU partners. I wish I was good at logic-style flowcharts but the probable path is as follows, with 3 possible outcomes.

    New leader would ask for an extension to sort this mess out and get a new deal. EU has choice to grant an extension or not.
    1: If extension granted: We remain a while longer and are no worse off than we are now.

    If no extension we probably leave with no deal, or more likely a series of mini-deals that tackle issues like visas (Commission has already said Brits won't need one in a no deal scenario) etc

    EU then faces a choice, to erect a hard border or not.

    2: If they erect a hard border in Ireland we then likely continue negotiations but from outside with no deal as it stands.

    3: If they don't erect a hard border in Ireland the Irish border issue was a bluff that has been called, we move on to talking about the future relationship minus any talk about an NI backstop that has held talks up until now.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Brady is in the house to collect their letters as they leave.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    People thing all politicians break all promises all of the time. That's their background assumption. I think 90% do not trust them to tell the truth IIRC
    From the same poll, you do wonder about the other 7%:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1063044047919632384
    Contrarians.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:
    But the neo Brexiteers (continuity remainers And 'a new deal is easy'ers) will say the EU is lying about that, if the EU confirms that position.

    They really are taking on the worst aspects of the leave campaign - they'll be saying the EU are lying as they need us more than we need them next.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    whilst you consider the mess you helped us get into?

    thats just funny, remind me how exactly I shaped the nation's politics ? LOL

    You voted for leave.

    Most of all, you passionately argued for leave on here.

    I've a four year old child, and I'm going through the long and somewhat tortuous process of teaching him that you have to take responsibility for your actions and decisions.

    I can start on you afterwards, if you like? ;)
    sorry, still laughing
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728

    People thing all politicians break all promises all of the time. That's their background assumption. I think 90% do not trust them to tell the truth IIRC
    From the same poll, you do wonder about the other 7%:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1063044047919632384
    Perhaps they feel that 'mess' doesn't adequately sum up the situation? It's like calling World War One a skirmish ...
  • Brady is in the house to collect their letters as they leave.

    I think he might need a very sturdy bag to carry them all in.
  • Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
  • kle4 said:

    What is increasingly funny is that she keeps opening answers with "we are leaving the EU on 29th March 2019". Despite question after question pointing out that the deal will not pass and on that basis no we won't be

    What's funny is you are incorrect about that.
    I totally understand that we will crash out unless we act - have been posting on that for a long time. But whilst its clear that May's deal will not pass the house its also clear that No Deal will also not pass the house. The idea that MPs will vote down the deal and then do nothing else is absurd.

    There are a whole swathe of options as alternatives to this deal or no deal. And literally scores of MPs have lined up to point this out to the PM and she keeps insisting its her way or the highway
    If none of the alternatives to the status quo have majority support then it does not matter how unpopular the status quo is.

    The analogy is with House of Lords reform. The status quo has few friends, but no proposal for reform has enough support to replace it. Thus the status quo endures. This is the prospect for Brexit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    What the fuck is Holloway wearing?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoey speaking against the deal. This has to be the final nail. She's the most committed Labour leaver. I don't think it will even come to a vote now. It would be crushingly defeated.

    She's pretty much Labour ERG - so was never likely. It's the more moderate Labour leavers we need to wait from.
    Yeah, it's the Umunna centrists who are most likely to rebel. Though at this point the prospect of enough of them riding to the rescue doesn't look great.
    Umunna is one of the leaders of the people's vote campaign. They are convinced they are on the verge of victory, they will never support this deal. They want to frame the debate as either a second referendum or Armageddon,
    Yeah, Umunna himself is probably not a good example but I don't know a better way to refer to that extreme anti Corbyn Labour centrist set
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    kle4 said:


    But the neo Brexiteers (continuity remainers And 'a new deal is easy'ers) will say the EU is lying about that, if the EU confirms that position

    At least it'll bring things into focus a bit. When Mogg or Labour backbenchers are interviewed, there's no way to claim another deal is possible. It's this or crash.
  • Brady is in the house to collect their letters as they leave.

    I think he might need a very sturdy bag to carry them all in.
    A pity he doesn't have a beard - a jolly man with a beard carrying a large sack of letters over his shoulder...
  • Exactly what I thought the EU might do this morning. Essentially shore up May by saying it’s this deal or no deal. No extensions, no renegotiations, take it or leave it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    Scott_P said:
    585 pages is a lot of work to revisit.

    I am a little surprised at RAb as a week ago he thought it 95% complete, but perhaps he hadn't actually read it.
  • Scott_P said:
    So May is right, and that blows a hole in Labours Brexit policy.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    Everyone who backed Corbyn's Brexit strategy deserves huge credit - the Tory self-destruction today proves it.

    The Tories were relying on Labour becoming the "Remain Party" to split the country.

    Corbyn's referendum-respecting fence sitting was a legit political master stroke.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Andrew said:

    kle4 said:


    But the neo Brexiteers (continuity remainers And 'a new deal is easy'ers) will say the EU is lying about that, if the EU confirms that position

    At least it'll bring things into focus a bit. When Mogg or Labour backbenchers are interviewed, there's no way to claim another deal is possible. It's this or crash.
    But they will say that. As will labour front bench since their policy is GE and renegotiate. It doesn't matter if it's right just if Mps believe it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Tezza getting quite terse. And who can blame her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    Everyone who backed Corbyn's Brexit strategy deserves huge credit - the Tory self-destruction today proves it.

    The Tories were relying on Labour becoming the "Remain Party" to split the country.

    Corbyn's referendum-respecting fence sitting was a legit political master stroke.

    Cynical and irresponsible focusing on partisan advantage, but yes on Brexit he and labour have played things very well.
  • Everyone who backed Corbyn's Brexit strategy deserves huge credit - the Tory self-destruction today proves it.

    The Tories were relying on Labour becoming the "Remain Party" to split the country.

    Corbyn's referendum-respecting fence sitting was a legit political master stroke.

    And it'll lead us right to a no deal position.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    What's Hodges saying, he;s blocked me and tweets are not coming up on my browser embedded.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Scott_P said:
    So May is right, and that blows a hole in Labours Brexit policy.
    Again no. It blows a hole in her party and ally management.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
  • Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
  • Pulpstar said:

    What's Hodges saying, he;s blocked me and tweets are not coming up on my browser embedded.
    Actually an incredible performance from May. Probably won’t change the fundamentals. But demonstrated she has more dignity, courage and resilience than most of her critics put together.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
    When you start making threats, you're no longer negotiating in good faith.

    And let's be clear this is exactly what it is: a hollow threat made in bad faith.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    edited November 2018
    A skilled politician would not be in this position, but if you think how Blair, Thatcher (or maybe Cameron) would have handled this occasion - they would have taken on the arguments direct and won the day. May can't do that. She just holds the line and does her best. She is Gordon Brown.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Every single remain and leave MP can only see their preferred outcome (No deal exit; remaining) as the alternative to the deal. It's an extraordinary bit of gambling, one side is going to be very badly wrong.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,916
    kle4 said:

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
    In their position would you really want to start all over again?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    kle4 said:

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
    When you start making threats, you're no longer negotiating in good faith.

    And let's be clear this is exactly what it is: a hollow threat made in bad faith.
    Its still not bullying. I don't believe them either, but talking tough during a negotiation is not bullying.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Jonathan said:

    A skilled politician would not be in this position, but if you think how Blair, Thatcher (or maybe Cameron) would have handled this occasion - they would have taken on the arguments direct and won the day. May can't do that. She just holds the line and does her best. She is Gordon Brown.

    nah

    Blair would just have handed over the rest of the regbate and proclaimed victory
  • kle4 said:

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
    When you start making threats, you're no longer negotiating in good faith.

    And let's be clear this is exactly what it is: a hollow threat made in bad faith.
    We started it.

    'No deal is better than a bad deal'
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Pulpstar said:

    Every single remain and leave MP can only see their preferred outcome (No deal exit; remaining) as the alternative to the deal. It's an extraordinary bit of gambling, one side is going to be very badly wrong.

    Well a lot of the Leavers have, correctly, said that this deal is worse than Remain
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
    When you start making threats, you're no longer negotiating in good faith.

    And let's be clear this is exactly what it is: a hollow threat made in bad faith.
    Its still not bullying. I don't believe them either, but talking tough during a negotiation is not bullying.
    It looks like an attempt to bully the MPs of the UK into accepting a deal they hate.

    My guess is that this will work about as well as you'd expect.
  • kle4 said:

    Everyone who backed Corbyn's Brexit strategy deserves huge credit - the Tory self-destruction today proves it.

    The Tories were relying on Labour becoming the "Remain Party" to split the country.

    Corbyn's referendum-respecting fence sitting was a legit political master stroke.

    Cynical and irresponsible focusing on partisan advantage, but yes on Brexit he and labour have played things very well.
    Time will tell - I'm not to sure
  • Jonathan said:

    A skilled politician would not be in this position, but if you think how Blair, Thatcher (or maybe Cameron) would have handled this occasion - they would have taken on the arguments direct and won the day. May can't do that. She just holds the line and does her best. She is Gordon Brown.

    Yes, she's useless at this kind of thing. The contrast with Hague (who was making essentially the same points) in his Today interview earlier this week was stark.
  • What we have seen this morning is TM defending a compromise when both extremes are not for compromise.

    I really admire her shear guts and also her depth of knowledge so lacking in others.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    kle4 said:

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
    When you start making threats, you're no longer negotiating in good faith.

    And let's be clear this is exactly what it is: a hollow threat made in bad faith.
    We started it.

    'No deal is better than a bad deal'
    even earlier give me what I want or the country will vote leave ( DC )
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    kle4 said:

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
    When you start making threats, you're no longer negotiating in good faith.

    And let's be clear this is exactly what it is: a hollow threat made in bad faith.
    We started it.

    'No deal is better than a bad deal'
    Yes, and it didn't work for us either. So it's dumb for the EU to try it on.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
    We will have freedom of movement for at least two years and probably longer.

    And in the end look at May's record. Beyond gimmicks and PR exercises she did little to control non EU immigration during her time at the Home office - it was verging on the highest levels ever. We get to control freedom of movement - if a government wishes to - but in practice will we notice when its gone if we keep it in all but name on a one sided basis.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
    In their position would you really want to start all over again?
    No but I think they would reopen to tweak if a new gov came in. I just don't think it would be as easy or substantive as the neo Brexiteers, labour and conservative, are pretending.

    Not least since many are confident they would even let us stay outright.
  • Scott_P said:
    Gove could hardly accept a job reporting to Olly Robins.
  • What we have seen this morning is TM defending a compromise when both extremes are not for compromise.

    I really admire her shear guts and also her depth of knowledge so lacking in others.

    She's certainly resilient. Incredible performance given the isolated position.

    She deserves a brandy after this!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited November 2018
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    brendan16 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There won't be a bespoke deal - thats clear. But a deal is perfectly doable - we remain in the EEA and do a customs deal.
    I think voters might spot continued freedom of movement.....
    We will have freedom of movement for at least two years and probably longer.

    And in the end look at May's record. Beyond gimmicks and PR exercises she did little to control non EU immigration during her time at the Home office - it was verging on the highest levels ever. We get to control freedom of movement - if a government wishes to - but in practice will we notice when its gone if we keep it in all but name on a one sided basis.
    HMG can stop the impact of FOM at any time if they change the Social security rules.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    7
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    What time do we get Mordaunt and Fox?

    What time do we get Gove?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Jonathan said:

    A skilled politician would not be in this position, but if you think how Blair, Thatcher (or maybe Cameron) would have handled this occasion - they would have taken on the arguments direct and won the day. May can't do that. She just holds the line and does her best. She is Gordon Brown.

    She's no leader, that's been apparent from day one.

    Not convinced anyone else would have done any better though - the range of possible outcomes were heavily constrained by NI, and the EU's demands. Someone else might have done the politics better, but the details? Cameron or Blair weren't exactly interested in the minutiae.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    So the EU is trying to bully the UK into accepting a terrible deal by threatening us with a catastrophic one.

    Bullying the UK is going to go down *so well*.

    Oh for heaven's sake. I think the EU have been unnecessarily bullish in this negotiation, self defeating in fact, but its hardly bullying to say at end of negotiations that they don't intend to renegotiate.
    When you start making threats, you're no longer negotiating in good faith.

    And let's be clear this is exactly what it is: a hollow threat made in bad faith.
    Its still not bullying. I don't believe them either, but talking tough during a negotiation is not bullying.
    It looks like an attempt to bully the MPs of the UK into accepting a deal they hate.

    My guess is that this will work about as well as you'd expect.
    I don't like overuse of the term bullying personally. They are playing hardball and clearly expected all along we would hate no deal so much they could do that without risk. I've always felt they underestimated the chances of no deal, which they claim not to want, as a result of assumptions we would not take no deal. Which we might.
This discussion has been closed.