politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good news for TMay: Montgomerie’s backing suggests that the de
Comments
-
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?TheWhiteRabbit said:If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
0 -
You’re a supporter of the Jew baiting party. Hard to take the moral high ground.Jonathan said:
Tories innit. Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:I never thought my contempt for the ERG/Leavers would increase, but it has grown exponentially in the last 36 hours.
Absolute bellends.0 -
What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Cash, Redwood...?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
it's going to be quite difficult to admit at dinner parties that you are a member of the ERG. I mean how embarrassing can you get?another_richard said:
And how angry will they be when May wins ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Is that the Steven Woolfe who got into a punch-up in the EU Parl while a UKIP MEP?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Surely she would remain PM until a successor had been chosen?DavidL said:What takes precedence, a VONC inside the Tory Party or a statement to the HoC? If there is a VONC tomorrow will the statement be postponed? Surely it has to be. Its a statement by the PM and that might not be her.
0 -
It doesn't. You can generally tell how hopeless a suggestion is by how much it relies on things just, somehow, working out. People expecting a deal to pass are expecting dozens of people including many on remain and leave sides who are being very forthright to do complete 180s, and expecting dozens of Labour MPs who are not indicating they are going to help get this through to suddenly do so. It's wishful thinking at play.DavidL said:
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?TheWhiteRabbit said:If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
0 -
YupQuincel said:
Is that the Steven Woolfe who got into a punch-up in the EU Parl while a UKIP MEP?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Resigning?Big_G_NorthWales said:Dominic Raab not going to Brussels
0 -
with Labour supportDavidL said:
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?TheWhiteRabbit said:If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
0 -
Worse than the Corn Laws split IMO.DavidL said:
Yes it would. It would be the corn laws all over again.another_richard said:
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?DavidL said:Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.0 -
There's bellends a plenty.TheScreamingEagles said:I never thought my contempt for the ERG/Leavers would increase, but it has grown exponentially in the last 36 hours.
Absolute bellends.
The ERG hardliners who can't bank wins on 90% of what they wanted.
Europhiles who are willing to trash the country in the forlorn hope of rejoining their beloved EU.
Scottish nationalists wanting to wreck the country to encourage independence.
Irish loyalists happy to trash the country rather than have some minor differences in widget standards.
Labour MPs putting partisan advantage above the wellbeing of the working class, even when it will cement Corbyn in power.
This will end up with a hard left Corbyn government exacerbating the crash of a cliff edge. The resulting devastation to jobs and living standards will drive extreme populism of both the Trump amd Chavez varieties. Sensible conservatism, liberalism and social democracy will all be washed away and the British public will suffer.
0 -
She doesn't have to. She can go now. The cabinet would nominate a successor.justin124 said:
Surely she would remain PM until a successor had been chosen?DavidL said:What takes precedence, a VONC inside the Tory Party or a statement to the HoC? If there is a VONC tomorrow will the statement be postponed? Surely it has to be. Its a statement by the PM and that might not be her.
0 -
Brexit Advance Coalition.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Cash, Redwood...?TheScreamingEagles said:
WTAF (as I believe the yoot say, or write)0 -
Possible but unlikely. Keeping a Tory PM in office? That's a really big ask.TheWhiteRabbit said:
with Labour supportDavidL said:
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?TheWhiteRabbit said:If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
0 -
Starting to think the smart bet is for TM to make it to 2040, but with her apparently being deposed every 12 days.0
-
If she wins a VONC, but perhaps struggles to get a deal through parliament, then might be logical to call another general election whilst leader?AlastairMeeks said:The oddest movement on Betfair is that Jeremy Corbyn is shortening all the time for next Prime Minister at exactly the time when it looks increasingly likely that the next Prime Minister will be a Conservative selected before the next election.
0 -
BBC reporting from Europe that non of the member states have seen the deal and they will not consider it until it is submitted as they do not trust Barnier !!!0
-
John Murphy
@John_murphy1
30s30 seconds ago
Has the Cabinet murdered Theresa May?
0 replies . 0 retweets 0 likes0 -
Where is she?0
-
admittedly a bit like Harold Godwinson having seen off one set of enemies at Stamford birdge marched down to Hastings, only to be defeated at the last moment and defenestrated.DavidL said:
Possible but unlikely. Keeping a Tory PM in office? That's a really big ask.TheWhiteRabbit said:
with Labour supportDavidL said:
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?TheWhiteRabbit said:If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
0 -
2 mins to statement says Sky0
-
'sakeBig_G_NorthWales said:BBC reporting from Europe that non of the member states have seen the deal and they will not consider it until it is submitted as they do not trust Barnier !!!
0 -
That's ambiguous.rottenborough said:0 -
rkrkrk said:
If she wins a VONC, but perhaps struggles to get a deal through parliament, then might be logical to call another general election whilst leader?AlastairMeeks said:The oddest movement on Betfair is that Jeremy Corbyn is shortening all the time for next Prime Minister at exactly the time when it looks increasingly likely that the next Prime Minister will be a Conservative selected before the next election.
0 -
Taking over?MarqueeMark said:
Resigning?Big_G_NorthWales said:Dominic Raab not going to Brussels
0 -
And the “Blue Wave” is Arron Banks’ entryist group.Quincel said:
Is that the Steven Woolfe who got into a punch-up in the EU Parl while a UKIP MEP?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.TheWhiteRabbit said:
with Labour supportDavidL said:
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?TheWhiteRabbit said:If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
She already knew that because the ERG clearly wouldn't vote for it! It doesn't show anything new!TheScreamingEagles said:
It shouldn't be - there has to be a high chance that the DUP will no longer back the Tories, even if the Tories ditch May after a deal, and crusty brexiteers will probably rebel on all sorts of things in retaliation even if they do not do the sensible thing and resign the whip (in the event a deal passes). So getting a deal hardly props up the government for long, a new GE might be unavoidable as rebels and the opposition conspire to bring it down after a deal, while the Tories are weakened.DavidL said:
Possible but unlikely. Keeping a Tory PM in office? That's a really big ask.TheWhiteRabbit said:
with Labour supportDavidL said:
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?TheWhiteRabbit said:If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
0 -
Buying a map of Europe, so that he can work out where the ports are?old_labour said:
Taking over?MarqueeMark said:
Resigning?Big_G_NorthWales said:Dominic Raab not going to Brussels
0 -
Couldn't get one of those visa waivers we'll need going forward.MarqueeMark said:
Resigning?Big_G_NorthWales said:Dominic Raab not going to Brussels
0 -
They do not have the votes to oust May but even if they did the new leader would be caretaker for barely a few months at best before Corbyn takes over and agrees an almost identical deal to May's anyway but with a permanent Customs Union committed tokle4 said:
What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
0
-
That sure is a great door.
0 -
The ERG crowd would prefer that it seems, given they would also prefer remain to this deal (that is the implication at any rate, since they appear to be saying this is worse than remaining).HYUFD said:
They do not have the votes to oust May but even if they did the new leader would be caretaker for barely a few months at best before Corbyn takes over and agrees an almost identical deal to May's anyway but with a permanent Customs Union committed tokle4 said:
What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?TheScreamingEagles said:
But it does make it a very odd statement. "The PM does not have support for this and must be taken down, then an unknown caretaker with an unknown Brexit position would definitely then sort things out".
May is crap, and the deal is probably crap, but what does rejecting all this achieve? No deal, probably.0 -
I'm so glad I'm going to be in Canada when Brexit happens.0
-
no it's still at $1.29viewcode said:£1=$1.129397 2018-11-14 19:05 UTC
See https://www.xe.com/0 -
Awesome action at No. 10 as the camera man tests out his zoom and focus on the mics in front of the door.0
-
If Theresa walks out of Downing St. before the Cabinet does that mean she's toast?0
-
Let's ask Boris, he seems to be an expert...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Arse sorry: typo (superfluous "1")TheWhiteRabbit said:
no it's still at $1.29viewcode said:£1=$1.129397 2018-11-14 19:05 UTC
See https://www.xe.com/
£1=$1.29397 2018-11-14 19:05 UTC
See https://www.xe.com/
I am a bad viewcode0 -
99/100 this will be a total anti-climax. These moments are always quite fun to think 'what if'.0
-
It's that stop Brexit weirdo shouting.TOPPING said:
I think he may end shouting for the entirety of Mrs May's statement.0 -
Or, indeed, if parliament in a 'meaningful vote' asks for something else?TheScreamingEagles said:
I hope Labour and the Grievers like no deal.0 -
-
Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes)
Gavin Barwell apparently seeing junior ministers in 10 minutes
November 14, 2018
0 -
They are out through the back door probably?GIN1138 said:If Theresa walks out of Downing St. before the Cabinet does that mean she's toast?
0 -
Feels like forever waiting for this statement0
-
-
Please can you take Boris with you? He’s obsessed with Canada.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I'm going to be in Canada when Brexit happens.
0 -
-
Will the door be more exciting than the statement?0
-
It's not William Glenn is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's that stop Brexit weirdo shouting.TOPPING said:
I think he may end shouting for the entirety of Mrs May's statement.
0 -
Well then we are lucky it is meaningless as the MPs have already made up their minds.The_Apocalypse said:Feels like forever waiting for this statement
0 -
And leave him therenumbertwelve said:
Please can you take Boris with you? He’s obsessed with Canada.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm so glad I'm going to be in Canada when Brexit happens.
0 -
Or not allowed out until she has spoken?rottenborough said:
They are out through the back door probably?GIN1138 said:If Theresa walks out of Downing St. before the Cabinet does that mean she's toast?
0 -
I think you’re sadly right.Jonathan said:99/100 this will be a total anti-climax. These moments are always quite fun to think 'what if'.
0 -
-
This smacks of a serious rewrite to me. That is not good.0
-
How funny would it be if May walks out, says "strong and stable, Brexit means Brexit", and then turns and walks straight back in?0
-
2018-11-14 19:13 UTC
£1=$1.294750 -
The Moggster has not put in a letter.
Yet.0 -
Wouldn't it be funny if it somehow did get through parliament but then a single EU country refuses to back it?0
-
She might just say the Cabinet will reconvene tomorrow morning!0
-
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 2018
0 -
It’s literally Groundhog Day with these all these rumours of a VONC. If I had a penny for every time it was supposed to happen....kle4 said:
Well then we are lucky it is meaningless as the MPs have already made up their minds.The_Apocalypse said:Feels like forever waiting for this statement
0 -
Interesting to think that Greece doesn't want us to leave lest the Germans take over even more fully...0
-
Given her ability for can kicking that's probably the most likely outcome...rottenborough said:She might just say the Cabinet will reconvene tomorrow morning!
0 -
I've had relationships that have lasted longer than the wait for Theresa May's statement.0
-
has she accepted any resignations...old_labour said:
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 20180 -
And so it begins.old_labour said:
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 20180 -
2018-11-14 19:16 UTC
£1=$1.296700 -
If that's true, "Rejoice!"old_labour said:
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 20180 -
Will there be a vote in Parliament next?old_labour said:
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 20180 -
How do they hear this? Shouldn't they have surrendered their phones when they went into the meeting?old_labour said:
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 20180 -
they've all but left nowkle4 said:
How do they hear this? Shouldn't they have surrendered their phones when they went into the meeting?old_labour said:
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 2018
0 -
Remember Chequers... We might need 24 hrs to judge the success of this baby.0
-
Is she out uet0
-
No word about that.TheWhiteRabbit said:
has she accepted any resignations...old_labour said:
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 20180 -
Telegraph reports deal backed by cabinet0
-
And possibly some that were shorter?TheScreamingEagles said:I've had relationships that have lasted longer than the wait for Theresa May's statement.
0 -
24 years more likeJonathan said:Remember Chequers... We might need 24 hrs to judge the success of this baby.
0 -
Be quiet Kosh...DanSmith said:
And so it begins.old_labour said:
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 2018
0 -
Yes one was very short.DavidL said:
And possibly some that were shorter?TheScreamingEagles said:I've had relationships that have lasted longer than the wait for Theresa May's statement.
0
