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  • GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    I think there's a line in Yes, Minister where the diplomatic benefits of a strong bladder are lauded.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    GIN, you never heard of text or twitter, and Good evening as well
    Evening Malc. :D

    I'm not sure Theresa would allow that?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/J8-Smallest-Mobile-Newest-changer-x/dp/B00O586YB2
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    I think there's a line in Yes, Minister where the diplomatic benefits of a strong bladder are lauded.
    Enoch Powell used to drink copious amounts of water before giving interviews to concentrate the mind (as it were).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    Lol that reminds me of when I was doing pay negotiations and we called the union in on a Sunday morning to finalise what had proved to be a difficult set of negotiations. At weekends there was no catering in the building, and my director had arranged for some sandwiches to be left for the management team, the plan being to keep the meeting running into the afternoon until the union side were sufficiently hungry that a deal could be done. Which it was.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    I think there's a line in Yes, Minister where the diplomatic benefits of a strong bladder are lauded.
    Enoch Powell used to drink copious amounts of water before giving interviews to concentrate the mind (as it were).
    My favourite Enoch Powell quote is the one about going to the Barbers.

    The Barber says "How would you like your hair cutting sir?"

    EP replies "In silence".
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    By the way, and regarding deals with the US, it's worth noting that New NAFTA contains a provision that signatories (Canada and Mexico) are not allowed to sign agreements with countries that the US regards as non-market economies.

    The US regards China as a non-market economy.

    So, Canada and Mexico are not allowed to have agreements with China.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    I think there's a line in Yes, Minister where the diplomatic benefits of a strong bladder are lauded.
    Ah. Well that will have been where they got the idea from I expect. In another job I worked with a former senior civil servant who seriously thought Yes Minister was an instruction manual.

    God knows what he'd have made of "The Thick of It".
  • Mark Stone on Sky saying they are waiting for cabinet decision before considering the deal.

    One journalist contradicting another both on Sky
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, and regarding deals with the US, it's worth noting that New NAFTA contains a provision that signatories (Canada and Mexico) are not allowed to sign agreements with countries that the US regards as non-market economies.

    The US regards China as a non-market economy.

    So, Canada and Mexico are not allowed to have agreements with China.

    The joys of being adjacent to a powerful economic neighbour
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    I think there's a line in Yes, Minister where the diplomatic benefits of a strong bladder are lauded.
    Ah. Well that will have been where they got the idea from I expect. In another job I worked with a former senior civil servant who seriously thought Yes Minister was an instruction manual.

    God knows what he'd have made of "The Thick of It".
    Live CCTV feed......
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I recall one executive who allocated 2 person hours for a meeting. If two people turned up then the meeting was a maximum of one hour, if ten people turned up then the meeting had a maximum of 6 minutes. He was senior enough to have the clout to make it stick.

    I knew another manager who insisted all meetings were done standing up.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    I think there's a line in Yes, Minister where the diplomatic benefits of a strong bladder are lauded.
    Enoch Powell used to drink copious amounts of water before giving interviews to concentrate the mind (as it were).
    My favourite Enoch Powell quote is the one about going to the Barbers.

    The Barber says "How would you like your hair cutting sir?"

    EP replies "In silence".
    Also attributed to Lord Curzon.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    edited November 2018
    IanB2 said:

    I don't think Labour's soundbite about a "botched deal" will resonate. It's clearly not a botched deal - it's what Brexit is.

    By the sound of it, the deal is as good as Brexit gets - not as good as remaining, but if we have to leave, not a bad outcome. The fact that the headbangers have no pragmatism, realism or common sense and cannot see this is hardly to their credit.
    For anyone that values reducing unskilled immigration, it is far superior to Remaining.

    May just needs to sell this via bullets points:

    - An end to uncontrolled immigration
    - Billions saved each year
    - British courts supreme once again
    - Ability to sign our own trade deals
    - No border in Northern Ireland
    - Regaining control over our financial sector, business services, creative industries and other services
    - Maintaining our place in manufacturing supply chains
    - Exit from the Common Agricultural Policy
    - Exit from the Common Fisheries Policy
    - Independent exit mechanism
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    What happened to Brady's announcement at 5?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Theo said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't think Labour's soundbite about a "botched deal" will resonate. It's clearly not a botched deal - it's what Brexit is.

    By the sound of it, the deal is as good as Brexit gets - not as good as remaining, but if we have to leave, not a bad outcome. The fact that the headbangers have no pragmatism, realism or common sense and cannot see this is hardly to their credit.
    For anyone that values reducing unskilled immigration, it is far superior to Remaining.

    May just needs to sell this via bullets points:

    - An end to uncontrolled immigration
    - British courts supreme once again
    - Ability to sign our own trade deals
    - No border in Northern Ireland
    - Regaining control over our financial sector, business services, creative industries and other services
    - Maintaining our place in manufacturing supply chains
    - Exit from the Common Agricultural Policy
    - Exit from the Common Fisheries Policy
    - Independent exit mechanism
    When will we be able to implement a UK-wide trade deal with a third country under this deal?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    I recall one executive who allocated 2 person hours for a meeting. If two people turned up then the meeting was a maximum of one hour, if ten people turned up then the meeting had a maximum of 6 minutes. He was senior enough to have the clout to make it stick.

    I knew another manager who insisted all meetings were done standing up.

    I believe that is the case for Privy Council meetings.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018

    Theo said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't think Labour's soundbite about a "botched deal" will resonate. It's clearly not a botched deal - it's what Brexit is.

    By the sound of it, the deal is as good as Brexit gets - not as good as remaining, but if we have to leave, not a bad outcome. The fact that the headbangers have no pragmatism, realism or common sense and cannot see this is hardly to their credit.
    For anyone that values reducing unskilled immigration, it is far superior to Remaining.

    May just needs to sell this via bullets points:

    - An end to uncontrolled immigration
    - British courts supreme once again
    - Ability to sign our own trade deals
    - No border in Northern Ireland
    - Regaining control over our financial sector, business services, creative industries and other services
    - Maintaining our place in manufacturing supply chains
    - Exit from the Common Agricultural Policy
    - Exit from the Common Fisheries Policy
    - Independent exit mechanism
    When will we be able to implement a UK-wide trade deal with a third country under this deal?
    Do Barnsley and Harlow care? May's Deal annoys Leavers like Hannan but still ends free movement and leaves the EU which is what most Leave voters wanted
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    Theo said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't think Labour's soundbite about a "botched deal" will resonate. It's clearly not a botched deal - it's what Brexit is.

    By the sound of it, the deal is as good as Brexit gets - not as good as remaining, but if we have to leave, not a bad outcome. The fact that the headbangers have no pragmatism, realism or common sense and cannot see this is hardly to their credit.
    For anyone that values reducing unskilled immigration, it is far superior to Remaining.

    May just needs to sell this via bullets points:

    - An end to uncontrolled immigration
    - British courts supreme once again
    - Ability to sign our own trade deals
    - No border in Northern Ireland
    - Regaining control over our financial sector, business services, creative industries and other services
    - Maintaining our place in manufacturing supply chains
    - Exit from the Common Agricultural Policy
    - Exit from the Common Fisheries Policy
    - Independent exit mechanism
    When will we be able to implement a UK-wide trade deal with a third country under this deal?
    As soon as the backstop kicks in from 2020. Obviously dependent on that third party mind.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Theo said:

    Theo said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't think Labour's soundbite about a "botched deal" will resonate. It's clearly not a botched deal - it's what Brexit is.

    By the sound of it, the deal is as good as Brexit gets - not as good as remaining, but if we have to leave, not a bad outcome. The fact that the headbangers have no pragmatism, realism or common sense and cannot see this is hardly to their credit.
    For anyone that values reducing unskilled immigration, it is far superior to Remaining.

    May just needs to sell this via bullets points:

    - An end to uncontrolled immigration
    - British courts supreme once again
    - Ability to sign our own trade deals
    - No border in Northern Ireland
    - Regaining control over our financial sector, business services, creative industries and other services
    - Maintaining our place in manufacturing supply chains
    - Exit from the Common Agricultural Policy
    - Exit from the Common Fisheries Policy
    - Independent exit mechanism
    When will we be able to implement a UK-wide trade deal with a third country under this deal?
    As soon as the backstop kicks in from 2020. Obviously dependent on that third party mind.
    The backstop contains a customs union, so no trade deals until we exit the backstop. When will that be, and what terms will we have with the EU when we exit it?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    A betting question. How do Ladbrokes determine the time of a ministerial resignation? Especially if there are multiple resignations and - I guess a possibility - joint resignation statements made?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    I think there's a line in Yes, Minister where the diplomatic benefits of a strong bladder are lauded.
    Enoch Powell used to drink copious amounts of water before giving interviews to concentrate the mind (as it were).
    My favourite Enoch Powell quote is the one about going to the Barbers.

    The Barber says "How would you like your hair cutting sir?"

    EP replies "In silence".
    +1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited November 2018
    TudorRose said:

    A betting question. How do Ladbrokes determine the time of a ministerial resignation? Especially if there are multiple resignations and - I guess a possibility - joint resignation statements made?

    Dead heat rules if more than resignation takes place on the same day.

    IIRC they settled the David Davis resignation as the Sunday even though it wasn't formally announced until the Monday.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Brady's announcement at 5?

    There is/was no announcement as such. Apparently it's a regular 1922 meeting (with the Health Secretary I believe).
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:

    A betting question. How do Ladbrokes determine the time of a ministerial resignation? Especially if there are multiple resignations and - I guess a possibility - joint resignation statements made?

    Dead heat rules if more than resignation takes place on the same day.

    IIRC they settled the David Davis resignation as the Sunday even though it wasn't formally announced until the Monday.
    In that case it's a good market to be in if you believe there will be multiple resignations.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    SKY- No press statement from Downing Street tonight.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I hate it when a barber tries to engage my enthusiasm for sportsball.

    I normally retaliate by engaging him in discussions of the minutiae of politics.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    No press statement?

    Maybe Cabinet's support for the deal is a little bit less in the bag than May calculated.
  • GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Brady's announcement at 5?

    You mean the routine wednesday meeting of the 1922
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The thing is, that this means that May has now given TWO WHOLE NEWS CYCLES to the opponents of her deal to smear it liberally in diarrhoea, before she's even published the fucking thing.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    edited November 2018
    Serious question. Does the deal as we know it so far prevent whoever is PM come March progressing future relationship negotiations on a Canada plus and technological border basis?

    I'm strongly minded that the answer is no, they would not be prevented, contrary to what Boris claims.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    So, I assume it has been a measured and reflective day from all concerned?

    I also assume despite OGH's optimism for May, that she is even further away from getting the votes she needs?
  • SKY- No press statement from Downing Street tonight.

    In the Commons - statement to camera tonight still expected
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    The thing is, that this means that May has now given TWO WHOLE NEWS CYCLES to the opponents of her deal to smear it liberally in diarrhoea, before she's even published the fucking thing.

    It's a smart move. Already the narrative that her opponents are being dismissive without having read the thing has gained some traction. The deal might well be poo poo'd eventually but it's best for her it doesn't happen today.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    So you think she's gonna have a press conference but not make a statement?

    Just stand there in the dark, in silence?
  • So you think she's gonna have a press conference but not make a statement?

    Just stand there in the dark, in silence?

    Nothing has changed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Pro_Rata said:

    Serious question. Does the deal as we know it so far prevent whoever is PM come March progressing future relationship negotiations on a Canada plus and technological border basis?

    I'm strongly minded that the answer is no, they would not be prevented, contrary to what Boris claims.

    I think you may be disappointed. A hard border was defined in the December agreement as a border with infrastructure or associated checks. That rules out any kind of technological border by definition - it can only be a political solution.
  • kle4 said:

    So, I assume it has been a measured and reflective day from all concerned?

    I also assume despite OGH's optimism for May, that she is even further away from getting the votes she needs?

    How can anyone tell at this time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    The thing is, that this means that May has now given TWO WHOLE NEWS CYCLES to the opponents of her deal to smear it liberally in diarrhoea, before she's even published the fucking thing.

    That only matters among the public, and virtually none of us are going to read it anyway, and since it is a compromise is likely to be disliked on principle.

    It is the MPs who matter, and the naysayers are making a strong showing no doubt (both leavers and remainers), but they are also more likely to be persuadable despite the initial negative news cycles.
  • So you think she's gonna have a press conference but not make a statement?

    Just stand there in the dark, in silence?

    She is to make a statement at no 10 tonight
  • TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    A betting question. How do Ladbrokes determine the time of a ministerial resignation? Especially if there are multiple resignations and - I guess a possibility - joint resignation statements made?

    Dead heat rules if more than resignation takes place on the same day.

    IIRC they settled the David Davis resignation as the Sunday even though it wasn't formally announced until the Monday.
    In that case it's a good market to be in if you believe there will be multiple resignations.
    Not really.

    Earlier I put £20 on McVey at 2/1 and £20 on Mordaunt at 3/1.

    If McVey were out first, I'd be up £20. If Mordaunt, £40.

    In the event of a tie between the two I am up £10 on mcVey and £20 on Mordaunt, i.e. broadly int he same position.

    If however more people also leave, I am quickly into losses.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Brady's announcement at 5?

    You mean the routine wednesday meeting of the 1922
    Someone further down was saying Brady and May were both going to make statements at 5pm?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Well, if May thought she had the votes in Cabinet with *acceptable* levels of resignations following, she'd already have pressed for a vote and be on her way to announce it before the resignations started.

    She hasn't, so the very obvious conclusion is either (1) she doesn't have the votes in cabinet or (2) isn't prepared to risk losing some big names.

    Neither looks good for this godforsaken deal.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Brady's announcement at 5?

    You mean the routine wednesday meeting of the 1922
    Someone further down was saying Brady and May were both going to make statements at 5pm?
    The (regular) 1922 meeting is ongoing, and May has pulled the planned statement and press conference for as-yet-unspecified-but-we-can-guess reasons.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited November 2018

    Well, if May thought she had the votes in Cabinet with *acceptable* levels of resignations following, she'd already have pressed for a vote and be on her way to announce it before the resignations started.

    She hasn't, so the very obvious conclusion is either (1) she doesn't have the votes in cabinet or (2) isn't prepared to risk losing some big names.

    Neither looks good for this godforsaken deal.

    As they are still in cabinet it is a bit difficult to make an announcement

    John Rentoul has just said if it goes through cabinet he expects it to pass the HOC
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018

    kle4 said:

    So, I assume it has been a measured and reflective day from all concerned?

    I also assume despite OGH's optimism for May, that she is even further away from getting the votes she needs?

    How can anyone tell at this time
    If May is struggling to get something through her own Cabinet, she simply won't get it past enough of her MPs because they are even more truculent and argumentative, so it doesn't seem that hard. The equation is that May lacks a majority so who else does she need. Will she have the DUP on this? If not will she have some Labour MPs? The number who might be yes is unknowable, but some are needed even if no Tories vote against. That's not impossible but it is clearly hard, even without knowing everything.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    TudorRose said:

    TudorRose said:

    A betting question. How do Ladbrokes determine the time of a ministerial resignation? Especially if there are multiple resignations and - I guess a possibility - joint resignation statements made?

    Dead heat rules if more than resignation takes place on the same day.

    IIRC they settled the David Davis resignation as the Sunday even though it wasn't formally announced until the Monday.
    In that case it's a good market to be in if you believe there will be multiple resignations.
    Not really.

    Earlier I put £20 on McVey at 2/1 and £20 on Mordaunt at 3/1.

    If McVey were out first, I'd be up £20. If Mordaunt, £40.

    In the event of a tie between the two I am up £10 on mcVey and £20 on Mordaunt, i.e. broadly int he same position.

    If however more people also leave, I am quickly into losses.
    Fair point; I meant that it made sense to back as many as possible on the basis that you were risk spreading in a market where multiple bets could come off.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Brady's announcement at 5?

    You mean the routine wednesday meeting of the 1922
    Someone further down was saying Brady and May were both going to make statements at 5pm?
    TM was scheduled to do so but the cabinet is still meeting.

    5.00pm was the time for the routine 1922 meeting to commence
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The DUP are honking pretty loudly they're not gonna touch this deal with a shitty stick. Barring some last minute miracle, the government is going into the vote without a working majority.

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Well, if May thought she had the votes in Cabinet with *acceptable* levels of resignations following, she'd already have pressed for a vote and be on her way to announce it before the resignations started.

    She hasn't, so the very obvious conclusion is either (1) she doesn't have the votes in cabinet or (2) isn't prepared to risk losing some big names.

    Neither looks good for this godforsaken deal.

    I thought announcing a 17:00 hour statement at No.10 was a hostage to fortune! Lack of control or the smack of firm government springs to mind.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    So you think she's gonna have a press conference but not make a statement?

    Just stand there in the dark, in silence?

    She is to make a statement at no 10 tonight
    Adam Boulton making fake news then.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    edited November 2018

    Pro_Rata said:

    Serious question. Does the deal as we know it so far prevent whoever is PM come March progressing future relationship negotiations on a Canada plus and technological border basis?

    I'm strongly minded that the answer is no, they would not be prevented, contrary to what Boris claims.

    I think you may be disappointed. A hard border was defined in the December agreement as a border with infrastructure or associated checks. That rules out any kind of technological border by definition - it can only be a political solution.
    I don't mind too much. I'm fine with a bit of CU and concluding the deal. What I'm looking for is the killer argument to beat Boris and the ERG down with.

    Do forms and pre clearance checks count? Might a change of Irish PM soften the lines? If I were Britain would it be worth pushing for the EU contingent of the independent panel to be quite heavily Irish or not?

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Well, if May thought she had the votes in Cabinet with *acceptable* levels of resignations following, she'd already have pressed for a vote and be on her way to announce it before the resignations started.

    She hasn't, so the very obvious conclusion is either (1) she doesn't have the votes in cabinet or (2) isn't prepared to risk losing some big names.

    Neither looks good for this godforsaken deal.

    As they are still in cabinet it is a bit difficult to make an announcement

    John Rentoul has just said if it goes through cabinet he expects it to pass the HOC
    Ha! As I said this morning!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Now there will be a statement, but not a press conference.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    So, I assume it has been a measured and reflective day from all concerned?

    I also assume despite OGH's optimism for May, that she is even further away from getting the votes she needs?

    How can anyone tell at this time
    If May is struggling to get something through her own Cabinet, she simply won't get it past enough of her MPs because they are even more truculent and argumentative, so it doesn't seem that hard. The equation is that May lacks a majority so who else does she need. Will she have the DUP on this? If not will she have some Labour MPs? The number who might be yes is unknowable, but some are needed even if no Tories vote against. That's not impossible but it is clearly hard, even without knowing everything.
    As I have just said John Rentoul expects it to pass the HOC if cabinet approve it
  • JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    I think there's a line in Yes, Minister where the diplomatic benefits of a strong bladder are lauded.
    Enoch Powell used to drink copious amounts of water before giving interviews to concentrate the mind (as it were).
    My favourite Enoch Powell quote is the one about going to the Barbers.

    The Barber says "How would you like your hair cutting sir?"

    EP replies "In silence".
    Wasn't that FE Smith?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Well, if May thought she had the votes in Cabinet with *acceptable* levels of resignations following, she'd already have pressed for a vote and be on her way to announce it before the resignations started.

    She hasn't, so the very obvious conclusion is either (1) she doesn't have the votes in cabinet or (2) isn't prepared to risk losing some big names.

    Neither looks good for this godforsaken deal.

    I thought announcing a 17:00 hour statement at No.10 was a hostage to fortune! Lack of control or the smack of firm government springs to mind.
    It strongly suggests that May completely misread how willing cabinet would be to accept this bucket of cold sick.

    But then, misreading people totally has been May's modus operandi from the start.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    dixiedean said:

    Now there will be a statement, but not a press conference.

    No questions?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Well, if May thought she had the votes in Cabinet with *acceptable* levels of resignations following, she'd already have pressed for a vote and be on her way to announce it before the resignations started.

    She hasn't, so the very obvious conclusion is either (1) she doesn't have the votes in cabinet or (2) isn't prepared to risk losing some big names.

    Neither looks good for this godforsaken deal.

    As they are still in cabinet it is a bit difficult to make an announcement

    John Rentoul has just said if it goes through cabinet he expects it to pass the HOC
    On what basis? If the DUP are not onside there is no majority.
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Brady's announcement at 5?

    You mean the routine wednesday meeting of the 1922
    Someone further down was saying Brady and May were both going to make statements at 5pm?
    The (regular) 1922 meeting is ongoing, and May has pulled the planned statement and press conference for as-yet-unspecified-but-we-can-guess reasons.
    She has not pulled anything. She is to make a statement tonight
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli)

    EU27 meeting of ambassadors has ended. Diplomats told no word yet from London whether UK ministers have given greenlight to the deal. Diplomats also told that substance of the Northern Ireland backstop is the previously reported three options to pick by July 2020

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/14/brexit-deal-theresa-may-conservatives-meet-decide-cabinet-politics-live?page=with:block-5bec6169e4b0772932e1fc53#block-5bec6169e4b0772932e1fc53
  • SKY- No press statement from Downing Street tonight.

    In the Commons - statement to camera tonight still expected
    MPs were unhappy that there would be a press conference before she has presented the dog's breakfast to the House.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Now there will be a statement, but not a press conference.

    No questions?
    I have a few. But I nor anyone else will get to put them it seems...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    What happened to Brady's announcement at 5?

    You mean the routine wednesday meeting of the 1922
    Someone further down was saying Brady and May were both going to make statements at 5pm?
    The (regular) 1922 meeting is ongoing, and May has pulled the planned statement and press conference for as-yet-unspecified-but-we-can-guess reasons.
    She has not pulled anything. She is to make a statement tonight
    ....or the early hours of tomorrow morning, depending when Cabinet finishes.

    Cabinet shouldn't be rushed. Short of going to war, it's probably the most important one in decades. All should be heard, all questions asked and answered.
  • dixiedean said:

    Well, if May thought she had the votes in Cabinet with *acceptable* levels of resignations following, she'd already have pressed for a vote and be on her way to announce it before the resignations started.

    She hasn't, so the very obvious conclusion is either (1) she doesn't have the votes in cabinet or (2) isn't prepared to risk losing some big names.

    Neither looks good for this godforsaken deal.

    As they are still in cabinet it is a bit difficult to make an announcement

    John Rentoul has just said if it goes through cabinet he expects it to pass the HOC
    On what basis? If the DUP are not onside there is no majority.
    He was saying that as there is a deal a referendum is less likely and no deal is a non starter
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    It also means that Nick Hurd, acting under instructions from the PM, just lied to the house.

    So that's lovely.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    dixiedean said:

    Well, if May thought she had the votes in Cabinet with *acceptable* levels of resignations following, she'd already have pressed for a vote and be on her way to announce it before the resignations started.

    She hasn't, so the very obvious conclusion is either (1) she doesn't have the votes in cabinet or (2) isn't prepared to risk losing some big names.

    Neither looks good for this godforsaken deal.

    As they are still in cabinet it is a bit difficult to make an announcement

    John Rentoul has just said if it goes through cabinet he expects it to pass the HOC
    On what basis? If the DUP are not onside there is no majority.
    He was saying that as there is a deal a referendum is less likely and no deal is a non starter
    Fair enough. However, there are quite a few assumptions in that view. I am not convinced.
  • It also means that Nick Hurd, acting under instructions from the PM, just lied to the house.

    So that's lovely.

    Of course he did not. He said there would be no statement in the HOC tonight
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    If May can keep this cabinet meeting going until March she might stand a chance.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    It also means that Nick Hurd, acting under instructions from the PM, just lied to the house.

    So that's lovely.

    How is she giving all these instructions about statements and running a cabinet meeting at the same time?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    TudorRose said:

    It also means that Nick Hurd, acting under instructions from the PM, just lied to the house.

    So that's lovely.

    How is she giving all these instructions about statements and running a cabinet meeting at the same time?
    Txt. CU L8R @ NO10 LUV TMPM
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Well, if May thought she had the votes in Cabinet with *acceptable* levels of resignations following, she'd already have pressed for a vote and be on her way to announce it before the resignations started.

    She hasn't, so the very obvious conclusion is either (1) she doesn't have the votes in cabinet or (2) isn't prepared to risk losing some big names.

    Neither looks good for this godforsaken deal.

    As they are still in cabinet it is a bit difficult to make an announcement

    John Rentoul has just said if it goes through cabinet he expects it to pass the HOC
    On what basis? If the DUP are not onside there is no majority.
    He was saying that as there is a deal a referendum is less likely and no deal is a non starter
    Fair enough. However, there are quite a few assumptions in that view. I am not convinced.
    Ironically his paper campaigns for a referendum
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    ERG has switched its position and is now encouraging its membership to send in their letters:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1062767206356971520

    I wonder when JRM will send his?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    houndtang said:

    JohnO said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky reporting Penny Mordaunt wanting a free vote

    As they're all still locked in the Cabinet how on earth does anyone know that? :D
    Toilet break + mobile phone. That's the problem with a five-hour cabinet: you do have to allow the odd comfort break.
    Mrs May should learn from the civil servants I used to have negotiate with at the LCD (as it then when was). Give everyone lots of coffee and no comfort breaks. Spin the proceedings out for as long as you can and they'll agree to anything you want.
    I think there's a line in Yes, Minister where the diplomatic benefits of a strong bladder are lauded.
    Enoch Powell used to drink copious amounts of water before giving interviews to concentrate the mind (as it were).
    My favourite Enoch Powell quote is the one about going to the Barbers.

    The Barber says "How would you like your hair cutting sir?"

    EP replies "In silence".
    Wasn't that FE Smith?
    It could have been attributed to him as well!

    I got the Enoch Powell version from a book called Parliamentary Sauce written by Greg Knight MP in the early to mid 1990s. There were some good quotes in it but the one about EP always stuck out due to his political persona of being quick witted. Another one EP made was when at a meeting someone shouted "Judas" to which he replied "Judas was paid I have made a sacrifice....." Mind you that could have been arranged in advance as you never know with these politicians!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Aren't those the mobiles designed for prisoners to .....uhhhh..... transport via infrequently-searched orifices?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    It also means that Nick Hurd, acting under instructions from the PM, just lied to the house.

    So that's lovely.

    Of course he did not. He said there would be no statement in the HOC tonight
    He said there would be no press statement, which is not true. Nick Hurd has lied to the house, for which he should be made to apologise. Though in this case the fuckup belongs wholly to Mrs May.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018

    ERG has switched its position and is now encouraging its membership to send in their letters:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1062767206356971520

    I wonder when JRM will send his?

    Good, they looked like a bunch of incompetents for somehow putting the position that May was trying to bring about the apocalypse, but not to send in letters because this lunatic might change their mind.
  • It also means that Nick Hurd, acting under instructions from the PM, just lied to the house.

    So that's lovely.

    Of course he did not. He said there would be no statement in the HOC tonight
    He said there would be no press statement, which is not true. Nick Hurd has lied to the house, for which he should be made to apologise. Though in this case the fuckup belongs wholly to Mrs May.
    https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1062763927594000384?s=21
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Jonathan said:

    If May can keep this cabinet meeting going until March she might stand a chance.

    They'll be sending in food parcels soon! :D
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Can’t believe people can be arsed to go to Downing St after work to protest for Brexit!

    Several of them may already work there!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    ERG has switched its position and is now encouraging its membership to send in their letters:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1062767206356971520

    I wonder when JRM will send his?

    Maybe he already has! :D
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Andrew said:

    Aren't those the mobiles designed for prisoners to .....uhhhh..... transport via infrequently-searched orifices?
    Any port in a storm. :lol:
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Well, when one mis-speaks to the house, one damn well returns to the house to grovellingly un-mis-speak it, and throw oneself onto the mercy of the chair.
  • Sky saying TM is going one by one round the cabinet answering colleagues individual questions and this is causing the delay
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Andrew said:

    Aren't those the mobiles designed for prisoners to .....uhhhh..... transport via infrequently-searched orifices?
    Any port in a storm. :lol:
    A new form of backstop?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Either she's going to press for a vote or she isn't.

    She can't maintain this quantum superposition forever. Either tonight or early tomorrow something needs to collapse.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Sky saying TM is going one by one round the cabinet answering colleagues individual questions and this is causing the delay


    How do they know that? Is Faisal Islam hiding under the table?
  • Well, when one mis-speaks to the house, one damn well returns to the house to grovellingly un-mis-speak it, and throw oneself onto the mercy of the chair.

    The easiest thing would be for him to say ‘Sorry, Theresa May couldn’t organise a pregnancy on a council estate’
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Sky saying TM is going one by one round the cabinet answering colleagues individual questions and this is causing the delay

    Sounds like a reverse Weakest Link. Theresa you are the weakest link, goodbye.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Remarkably, I imagine that the cabinet office has some kind of incredibly advanced communications technology to allow Theresa May, inside a room, to communicate with others, outside it.

    I wonder what this near-magical technology might comprise.
  • Either she's going to press for a vote or she isn't.

    She can't maintain this quantum superposition forever. Either tonight or early tomorrow something needs to collapse.

    She can return to the EU for further negotiation, reject the deal, or obtain cabinet approval
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    Jonathan said:

    TudorRose said:

    It also means that Nick Hurd, acting under instructions from the PM, just lied to the house.

    So that's lovely.

    How is she giving all these instructions about statements and running a cabinet meeting at the same time?
    Txt. CU L8R @ NO10 LUV TMPM
    TMICIPM here 11pm outside
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    If a leadership election is now a possibility that must alter the calculations of cabinet ministers tonight. Perhaps this is an attempt to nudge them along?
This discussion has been closed.