Remarkably, I imagine that the cabinet office has some kind of incredibly advanced communications technology to allow Theresa May, inside a room, to communicate with others, outside it.
I wonder what this near-magical technology might comprise.
It's not far from Downing Street to the Commons, she could probably have sent a civil servant runner.
The difference is, before today JRM was saying "don't do it", now JRM is saying "do it".
I don't know exactly how man Brexit Buccaneers he has at his beck and call, but I can easily imagine him getting to the magic number if he so wills it.
Also, if there's a VONC, even if May wins it, it will send a clear message to the whips quite how deep in the red their current vote tally is.
I think that is going to be the key. The number of votes against is the number of votes that cannot be relied upon to get this through the Commons which is the number she has to try and find from somewhere else.
The difference is, before today JRM was saying "don't do it", now JRM is saying "do it".
I don't know exactly how man Brexit Buccaneers he has at his beck and call, but I can easily imagine him getting to the magic number if he so wills it.
Well of course he can, the number was pretty high already apparently. It doesn't make his position not calling for it before now when all of his other words showed what he wanted required May gone any less stupid.
Also, if there's a VONC, even if May wins it, it will send a clear message to the whips quite how deep in the red their current vote tally is.
I think that is going to be the key. The number of votes against is the number of votes that cannot be relied upon to get this through the Commons which is the number she has to try and find from somewhere else.
It's not boring, that's for sure.
So she's almost certain to win pretty big the vonc then.
Gah, I thought there might be at least one more scare for TM this year. If I'd been smarter I'd have taken some of the 10-20/1 available on 2018 for her to go and have an amazing trading bet.
Also, if there's a VONC, even if May wins it, it will send a clear message to the whips quite how deep in the red their current vote tally is.
I think that is going to be the key. The number of votes against is the number of votes that cannot be relied upon to get this through the Commons which is the number she has to try and find from somewhere else.
It's not boring, that's for sure.
Won't it be at least 48 though, which is too many; unless....
What takes precedence, a VONC inside the Tory Party or a statement to the HoC? If there is a VONC tomorrow will the statement be postponed? Surely it has to be. Its a statement by the PM and that might not be her.
The oddest movement on Betfair is that Jeremy Corbyn is shortening all the time for next Prime Minister at exactly the time when it looks increasingly likely that the next Prime Minister will be a Conservative selected before the next election.
Gah, I thought there might be at least one more scare for TM this year. If I'd been smarter I'd have taken some of the 10-20/1 available on 2018 for her to go and have an amazing trading bet.
Also, if there's a VONC, even if May wins it, it will send a clear message to the whips quite how deep in the red their current vote tally is.
I think that is going to be the key. The number of votes against is the number of votes that cannot be relied upon to get this through the Commons which is the number she has to try and find from somewhere else.
It's not boring, that's for sure.
So she's almost certain to win pretty big the vonc then.
I agree but as others point out she can also lose at the same time if it becomes evident that she cannot get her deal through the Commons. It's a bit sub-optimal tbh.
The alternative timeline where a PM Miliband did lead to more chaos than we have experienced would be a diverting read. Perhaps something for Cameron to work on in his shed.
Remarkably, I imagine that the cabinet office has some kind of incredibly advanced communications technology to allow Theresa May, inside a room, to communicate with others, outside it.
I wonder what this near-magical technology might comprise.
It's not far from Downing Street to the Commons, she could probably have sent a civil servant runner.
Is there a viable caretaker Tory leader? I really can't think of anyone.
Hague (outside the Commons) would be an own goal of epic proportions.
Jeremy Hunt, he's a PM in waiting.
If May is being voted out because her deal is crap, why would the party rally behind someone who backs the deal, or who lamely stayed in the Cabinet for 6 months while the deal was shaping up?
Can a Brexiteer explain what specific things are driving this "betrayal"? The need for widgets made outside of Belfast to meet standards of the market they predominantly exported to?
I feel these people are so used to being in the self righteous outrage position they revert to it regardless of the facts at any moment. Every sensible Brexiteer that isn't jockeying for leadership (Gove, Raab, Montgomery) backs the deal. The militant tendency are too stupid to realise when they have won and are going to blow it as a result.
I’m not one for rerunning the vote (I was a waverer when it came to the referendum and I finally came down on the side of reluctant remain) but I almost hope we do remain now just to watch them squeal.
Is there a viable caretaker Tory leader? I really can't think of anyone.
Hague (outside the Commons) would be an own goal of epic proportions.
Jeremy Hunt, he's a PM in waiting.
If May is being voted out because her deal is crap, why would the party rally behind someone who backs the deal, or who lamely stayed in the Cabinet for 6 months while the deal was shaping up?
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!
Will the Tories just split already? It's not even funny anymore to see them throw around such loathing at one another while pretending it is all just normal big tent stuff. This is fundamental stuff, people are using very extreme language of betrayal here, it is time for them to vote on May, push through a deal or collapse, then shut the f*ck up for about 4 years.
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!
If only the unions hadn't rigged the vote for Lab leader for Ed rather than David...
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!
If only the unions hadn't rigged the vote for Lab leader for Ed rather than David...
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!
If only the unions hadn't rigged the vote for Lab leader for Ed rather than David...
Clearly the solution to this is for someone to build a time machine, travel back to fix the universe, and stop Eric Joyce from getting into a fight in the Sport and Social.
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!
If only the unions hadn't rigged the vote for Lab leader for Ed rather than David lABOUR WOULD HAVE BEEN FINISHED
Returning to the discussion of this morning about what a healthy economy should be based upon.
Its not too much export oriented and its not too much domestic demand.
But rather a mixture of both with sometimes more wealth creation and trade surpluses and sometimes more wealth consumption and trade deficits in a nice undulating sine curve pattern.
Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.
I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?
I don't think so. She has judged that getting this deal through is in the national interest; I don't think it matters if she has to lose a few Cabinet ministers to achieve that.
Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.
I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?
That would be the right move.
I would not blame her
The only question is resign as what. Tory leader or PM. She won't, but if she did resign as PM, the cabinet would right now be debating her successor for May to recommend to HM.
Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.
Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?
The Tories are impressively rubbish. It only took them three years to rip the country apart and completely implode. Impressive work. And a total unforced error.
Tonight thoughts must go out to Nick Clegg. Those Lib Dems did more than we thought.
Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?
If the rest of the party in parliament is lining up behind the deal, and they regard it as a traitorous betrayal, then they should not want to stand as Conservative candidates, they should stand as the True Tory party or whatever.
The Tories are impressively rubbish. It only took them three years to rip the country apart and completely implode. Impressive work. And a total unforced error.
Tonight thoughts must go out to Nick Clegg. Those Lib Dems did more than we thought.
Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?
Yes it would. It would be the corn laws all over again.
When I was 17, Nick Clegg came to my Sixth Form College to speak to Government and Politics students. I asked him if he thought the UK would ever join the Euro. Good times.
Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?
Yes it would. It would be the corn laws all over again.
The divisions in the Tories cannot be papered over anymore. You cannot stand up and say the deal potentially hundreds of colleagues will support is as amazingly terrible and then just stick around voting with those same people. They might agree on most other things, but this is critical and speaks to general government direction for years to come, so it is not a single vote problem.
Comments
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/liberal-elite-is-anyone-who-has-voluntarily-read-a-book-20161006114917
The Tory party really is rubbish at govt. Worth bringing out this tonight...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/595112367358406656
I’m going to get very worried if the rostrum doesn’t have a logo on it...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Why-Socialism-Works-Harrison-Lievesley/dp/1521531218/ref=la_B073HB3JXH_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1542219729&sr=1-1
I don't know exactly how man Brexit Buccaneers he has at his beck and call, but I can easily imagine him getting to the magic number if he so wills it.
It's not boring, that's for sure.
Hague (outside the Commons) would be an own goal of epic proportions.
Am spending Friday watching the Crimes of Grindlewood and then Saturday going to Blackpool to be in the audience of Strictly.
To be fair, both will be lakes of calm compared to Hard Brexit Far Left Corbyn Britain.
All of Friday, how long is that film?
Am watching the midnight showing then catching it again later on Friday.
I feel these people are so used to being in the self righteous outrage position they revert to it regardless of the facts at any moment. Every sensible Brexiteer that isn't jockeying for leadership (Gove, Raab, Montgomery) backs the deal. The militant tendency are too stupid to realise when they have won and are going to blow it as a result.
I’m not one for rerunning the vote (I was a waverer when it came to the referendum and I finally came down on the side of reluctant remain) but I almost hope we do remain now just to watch them squeal.
Longer Waiting Times
Longer Waiting Lists
I know I haven't mentioned it much but I did repeatedly tip Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.
I win something close to 16k.
He's now around 12/1 to be next PM.
Conservative Nationalist
Conservative Pragmatist
Labour
Momentum
Lib Dems
I think it sums them up well.
Its not too much export oriented and its not too much domestic demand.
But rather a mixture of both with sometimes more wealth creation and trade surpluses and sometimes more wealth consumption and trade deficits in a nice undulating sine curve pattern.
Who would you blame?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.
Tonight thoughts must go out to Nick Clegg. Those Lib Dems did more than we thought.
Absolute bellends.