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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good news for TMay: Montgomerie’s backing suggests that the de

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148

    But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Jonathan said:

    I never thought my contempt for the ERG/Leavers would increase, but it has grown exponentially in the last 36 hours.

    Absolute bellends.

    Tories innit. Agreed.
    You’re a supporter of the Jew baiting party. Hard to take the moral high ground.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    And how angry will they be when May wins ?
    it's going to be quite difficult to admit at dinner parties that you are a member of the ERG. I mean how embarrassing can you get?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Is that the Steven Woolfe who got into a punch-up in the EU Parl while a UKIP MEP?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    What takes precedence, a VONC inside the Tory Party or a statement to the HoC? If there is a VONC tomorrow will the statement be postponed? Surely it has to be. Its a statement by the PM and that might not be her.

    Surely she would remain PM until a successor had been chosen?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    DavidL said:

    If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148

    But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
    It doesn't. You can generally tell how hopeless a suggestion is by how much it relies on things just, somehow, working out. People expecting a deal to pass are expecting dozens of people including many on remain and leave sides who are being very forthright to do complete 180s, and expecting dozens of Labour MPs who are not indicating they are going to help get this through to suddenly do so. It's wishful thinking at play.
  • Quincel said:

    Is that the Steven Woolfe who got into a punch-up in the EU Parl while a UKIP MEP?
    Yup
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Dominic Raab not going to Brussels

    Resigning?
  • DavidL said:

    If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148

    But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
    with Labour support
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?

    They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.

    Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?
    Yes it would. It would be the corn laws all over again.
    Worse than the Corn Laws split IMO.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325

    I never thought my contempt for the ERG/Leavers would increase, but it has grown exponentially in the last 36 hours.

    Absolute bellends.

    There's bellends a plenty.

    The ERG hardliners who can't bank wins on 90% of what they wanted.
    Europhiles who are willing to trash the country in the forlorn hope of rejoining their beloved EU.
    Scottish nationalists wanting to wreck the country to encourage independence.
    Irish loyalists happy to trash the country rather than have some minor differences in widget standards.
    Labour MPs putting partisan advantage above the wellbeing of the working class, even when it will cement Corbyn in power.

    This will end up with a hard left Corbyn government exacerbating the crash of a cliff edge. The resulting devastation to jobs and living standards will drive extreme populism of both the Trump amd Chavez varieties. Sensible conservatism, liberalism and social democracy will all be washed away and the British public will suffer.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    edited November 2018
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    What takes precedence, a VONC inside the Tory Party or a statement to the HoC? If there is a VONC tomorrow will the statement be postponed? Surely it has to be. Its a statement by the PM and that might not be her.

    Surely she would remain PM until a successor had been chosen?
    She doesn't have to. She can go now. The cabinet would nominate a successor.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Brexit Advance Coalition.

    WTAF (as I believe the yoot say, or write)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    DavidL said:

    If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148

    But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
    with Labour support
    Possible but unlikely. Keeping a Tory PM in office? That's a really big ask.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Starting to think the smart bet is for TM to make it to 2040, but with her apparently being deposed every 12 days.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    edited November 2018
    Quincel said:

    Starting to think the smart bet is for TM to make it to 2040, but with her apparently being deposed every 12 days.

    2040ad or 2040pm?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301

    The oddest movement on Betfair is that Jeremy Corbyn is shortening all the time for next Prime Minister at exactly the time when it looks increasingly likely that the next Prime Minister will be a Conservative selected before the next election.

    If she wins a VONC, but perhaps struggles to get a deal through parliament, then might be logical to call another general election whilst leader?
  • BBC reporting from Europe that non of the member states have seen the deal and they will not consider it until it is submitted as they do not trust Barnier !!!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    John Murphy
    @John_murphy1
    30s30 seconds ago

    Has the Cabinet murdered Theresa May?
    0 replies . 0 retweets 0 likes
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Where is she?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148

    But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
    with Labour support
    Possible but unlikely. Keeping a Tory PM in office? That's a really big ask.
    admittedly a bit like Harold Godwinson having seen off one set of enemies at Stamford birdge marched down to Hastings, only to be defeated at the last moment and defenestrated.
  • 2 mins to statement says Sky
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    BBC reporting from Europe that non of the member states have seen the deal and they will not consider it until it is submitted as they do not trust Barnier !!!

    'sake
  • rkrkrk said:

    The oddest movement on Betfair is that Jeremy Corbyn is shortening all the time for next Prime Minister at exactly the time when it looks increasingly likely that the next Prime Minister will be a Conservative selected before the next election.

    If she wins a VONC, but perhaps struggles to get a deal through parliament, then might be logical to call another general election whilst leader?
    :+1:
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Dominic Raab not going to Brussels

    Resigning?
    Taking over?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,751
    Quincel said:

    Is that the Steven Woolfe who got into a punch-up in the EU Parl while a UKIP MEP?
    And the “Blue Wave” is Arron Banks’ entryist group.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    DavidL said:

    If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148

    But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
    with Labour support
    Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
    She already knew that because the ERG clearly wouldn't vote for it! It doesn't show anything new!
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148

    But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
    with Labour support
    Possible but unlikely. Keeping a Tory PM in office? That's a really big ask.
    It shouldn't be - there has to be a high chance that the DUP will no longer back the Tories, even if the Tories ditch May after a deal, and crusty brexiteers will probably rebel on all sorts of things in retaliation even if they do not do the sensible thing and resign the whip (in the event a deal passes). So getting a deal hardly props up the government for long, a new GE might be unavoidable as rebels and the opposition conspire to bring it down after a deal, while the Tories are weakened.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited November 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Quincel said:

    Starting to think the smart bet is for TM to make it to 2040, but with her apparently being deposed every 12 days.

    2040ad or 2040pm?
    image
  • Dominic Raab not going to Brussels

    Resigning?
    Taking over?
    Buying a map of Europe, so that he can work out where the ports are?
  • Dominic Raab not going to Brussels

    Resigning?
    Couldn't get one of those visa waivers we'll need going forward.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    kle4 said:

    What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?
    They do not have the votes to oust May but even if they did the new leader would be caretaker for barely a few months at best before Corbyn takes over and agrees an almost identical deal to May's anyway but with a permanent Customs Union committed to
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    £1=$1.129397 2018-11-14 19:05 UTC

    See https://www.xe.com/

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    That sure is a great door.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?
    They do not have the votes to oust May but even if they did the new leader would be caretaker for barely a few months at best before Corbyn takes over and agrees an almost identical deal to May's anyway but with a permanent Customs Union committed to
    The ERG crowd would prefer that it seems, given they would also prefer remain to this deal (that is the implication at any rate, since they appear to be saying this is worse than remaining).

    But it does make it a very odd statement. "The PM does not have support for this and must be taken down, then an unknown caretaker with an unknown Brexit position would definitely then sort things out".

    May is crap, and the deal is probably crap, but what does rejecting all this achieve? No deal, probably.
  • I'm so glad I'm going to be in Canada when Brexit happens.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    TOPPING said:

    That sure is a great door.

    I think its hinges are somewhat underworked in recent times.
  • viewcode said:

    £1=$1.129397 2018-11-14 19:05 UTC

    See https://www.xe.com/

    no it's still at $1.29
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    That sure is a great door.

    I think its hinges are somewhat underworked in recent times.
    Are they changing the Guard down the road? Sounds like a Drill Sergeant barking orders.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Awesome action at No. 10 as the camera man tests out his zoom and focus on the mics in front of the door.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    If Theresa walks out of Downing St. before the Cabinet does that mean she's toast?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141

    viewcode said:

    £1=$1.129397 2018-11-14 19:05 UTC

    See https://www.xe.com/

    no it's still at $1.29
    Arse sorry: typo (superfluous "1")

    £1=$1.29397 2018-11-14 19:05 UTC

    See https://www.xe.com/

    I am a bad viewcode
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    99/100 this will be a total anti-climax. These moments are always quite fun to think 'what if'.
  • TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    That sure is a great door.

    I think its hinges are somewhat underworked in recent times.
    Are they changing the Guard down the road? Sounds like a Drill Sergeant barking orders.
    It's that stop Brexit weirdo shouting.

    I think he may end shouting for the entirety of Mrs May's statement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Or, indeed, if parliament in a 'meaningful vote' asks for something else?

    I hope Labour and the Grievers like no deal.
  • TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    That sure is a great door.

    I think its hinges are somewhat underworked in recent times.
    Are they changing the Guard down the road? Sounds like a Drill Sergeant barking orders.
    Remainer demonstrations
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes)

    Gavin Barwell apparently seeing junior ministers in 10 minutes
    November 14, 2018

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    TOPPING said:

    That sure is a great door.

    Metal masquerading as wood.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    That sure is a great door.

    I think its hinges are somewhat underworked in recent times.
    The hinges of course famously are on the wrong side, aren't they?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    That sure is a great door.

    I think its hinges are somewhat underworked in recent times.
    Are they changing the Guard down the road? Sounds like a Drill Sergeant barking orders.
    I assumed that was some Brexiteer nutter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa walks out of Downing St. before the Cabinet does that mean she's toast?

    Would it be best if she delivered a statement with them all standing behind her in a show of unity I wonder.
  • GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa walks out of Downing St. before the Cabinet does that mean she's toast?

    They are out through the back door probably?
  • Feels like forever waiting for this statement
  • TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    That sure is a great door.

    I think its hinges are somewhat underworked in recent times.
    The hinges of course famously are on the wrong side, aren't they?
    Yup, it also doesn't have a front door key.
  • I'm so glad I'm going to be in Canada when Brexit happens.

    Please can you take Boris with you? He’s obsessed with Canada.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    Will the door be more exciting than the statement?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    That sure is a great door.

    I think its hinges are somewhat underworked in recent times.
    Are they changing the Guard down the road? Sounds like a Drill Sergeant barking orders.
    It's that stop Brexit weirdo shouting.

    I think he may end shouting for the entirety of Mrs May's statement.
    It's not William Glenn is it? :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    Feels like forever waiting for this statement

    Well then we are lucky it is meaningless as the MPs have already made up their minds.
  • I'm so glad I'm going to be in Canada when Brexit happens.

    Please can you take Boris with you? He’s obsessed with Canada.
    And leave him there
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    GIN1138 said:

    If Theresa walks out of Downing St. before the Cabinet does that mean she's toast?

    They are out through the back door probably?
    Or not allowed out until she has spoken?
  • Jonathan said:

    99/100 this will be a total anti-climax. These moments are always quite fun to think 'what if'.

    I think you’re sadly right.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    This smacks of a serious rewrite to me. That is not good.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    How funny would it be if May walks out, says "strong and stable, Brexit means Brexit", and then turns and walks straight back in?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    2018-11-14 19:13 UTC

    £1=$1.29475
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    The Moggster has not put in a letter.

    Yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Wouldn't it be funny if it somehow did get through parliament but then a single EU country refuses to back it?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    kle4 said:

    Wouldn't it be funny if it somehow did get through parliament but then a single EU country refuses to back it?

    QMV does at this stage.
  • She might just say the Cabinet will reconvene tomorrow morning!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238


    Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)

    I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
    November 14, 2018

  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Wouldn't it be funny if it somehow did get through parliament but then a single EU country refuses to back it?

    QMV does at this stage.
    Plus the European Parliament has to sign it off too.
  • kle4 said:

    Feels like forever waiting for this statement

    Well then we are lucky it is meaningless as the MPs have already made up their minds.
    It’s literally Groundhog Day with these all these rumours of a VONC. If I had a penny for every time it was supposed to happen....
  • Interesting to think that Greece doesn't want us to leave lest the Germans take over even more fully...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    She might just say the Cabinet will reconvene tomorrow morning!

    Given her ability for can kicking that's probably the most likely outcome...
  • I've had relationships that have lasted longer than the wait for Theresa May's statement.


  • Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)

    I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
    November 14, 2018

    has she accepted any resignations...
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215



    Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)

    I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
    November 14, 2018

    And so it begins.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    2018-11-14 19:16 UTC

    £1=$1.29670
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    rpjs said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Wouldn't it be funny if it somehow did get through parliament but then a single EU country refuses to back it?

    QMV does at this stage.
    Plus the European Parliament has to sign it off too.
    They're cheap though.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861



    Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)

    I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
    November 14, 2018

    If that's true, "Rejoice!"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395



    Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)

    I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
    November 14, 2018

    Will there be a vote in Parliament next?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181



    Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)

    I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
    November 14, 2018

    How do they hear this? Shouldn't they have surrendered their phones when they went into the meeting?
  • kle4 said:



    Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)

    I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
    November 14, 2018

    How do they hear this? Shouldn't they have surrendered their phones when they went into the meeting?
    they've all but left now

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    Remember Chequers... We might need 24 hrs to judge the success of this baby.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Is she out uet
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238



    Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)

    I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
    November 14, 2018

    has she accepted any resignations...
    No word about that.
  • Telegraph reports deal backed by cabinet
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    I've had relationships that have lasted longer than the wait for Theresa May's statement.

    And possibly some that were shorter?
  • Jonathan said:

    Remember Chequers... We might need 24 hrs to judge the success of this baby.

    24 years more like
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    DanSmith said:



    Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)

    I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
    November 14, 2018

    And so it begins.
    Be quiet Kosh... :)
  • DavidL said:

    I've had relationships that have lasted longer than the wait for Theresa May's statement.

    And possibly some that were shorter?
    Yes one was very short.
This discussion has been closed.