What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?
What takes precedence, a VONC inside the Tory Party or a statement to the HoC? If there is a VONC tomorrow will the statement be postponed? Surely it has to be. Its a statement by the PM and that might not be her.
Surely she would remain PM until a successor had been chosen?
If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
It doesn't. You can generally tell how hopeless a suggestion is by how much it relies on things just, somehow, working out. People expecting a deal to pass are expecting dozens of people including many on remain and leave sides who are being very forthright to do complete 180s, and expecting dozens of Labour MPs who are not indicating they are going to help get this through to suddenly do so. It's wishful thinking at play.
Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?
Yes it would. It would be the corn laws all over again.
I never thought my contempt for the ERG/Leavers would increase, but it has grown exponentially in the last 36 hours.
Absolute bellends.
There's bellends a plenty.
The ERG hardliners who can't bank wins on 90% of what they wanted. Europhiles who are willing to trash the country in the forlorn hope of rejoining their beloved EU. Scottish nationalists wanting to wreck the country to encourage independence. Irish loyalists happy to trash the country rather than have some minor differences in widget standards. Labour MPs putting partisan advantage above the wellbeing of the working class, even when it will cement Corbyn in power.
This will end up with a hard left Corbyn government exacerbating the crash of a cliff edge. The resulting devastation to jobs and living standards will drive extreme populism of both the Trump amd Chavez varieties. Sensible conservatism, liberalism and social democracy will all be washed away and the British public will suffer.
What takes precedence, a VONC inside the Tory Party or a statement to the HoC? If there is a VONC tomorrow will the statement be postponed? Surely it has to be. Its a statement by the PM and that might not be her.
Surely she would remain PM until a successor had been chosen?
She doesn't have to. She can go now. The cabinet would nominate a successor.
The oddest movement on Betfair is that Jeremy Corbyn is shortening all the time for next Prime Minister at exactly the time when it looks increasingly likely that the next Prime Minister will be a Conservative selected before the next election.
If she wins a VONC, but perhaps struggles to get a deal through parliament, then might be logical to call another general election whilst leader?
BBC reporting from Europe that non of the member states have seen the deal and they will not consider it until it is submitted as they do not trust Barnier !!!
If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
with Labour support
Possible but unlikely. Keeping a Tory PM in office? That's a really big ask.
admittedly a bit like Harold Godwinson having seen off one set of enemies at Stamford birdge marched down to Hastings, only to be defeated at the last moment and defenestrated.
BBC reporting from Europe that non of the member states have seen the deal and they will not consider it until it is submitted as they do not trust Barnier !!!
The oddest movement on Betfair is that Jeremy Corbyn is shortening all the time for next Prime Minister at exactly the time when it looks increasingly likely that the next Prime Minister will be a Conservative selected before the next election.
If she wins a VONC, but perhaps struggles to get a deal through parliament, then might be logical to call another general election whilst leader?
If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 148
But then what? How does this pass the Commons?
with Labour support
Possible but unlikely. Keeping a Tory PM in office? That's a really big ask.
It shouldn't be - there has to be a high chance that the DUP will no longer back the Tories, even if the Tories ditch May after a deal, and crusty brexiteers will probably rebel on all sorts of things in retaliation even if they do not do the sensible thing and resign the whip (in the event a deal passes). So getting a deal hardly props up the government for long, a new GE might be unavoidable as rebels and the opposition conspire to bring it down after a deal, while the Tories are weakened.
What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?
They do not have the votes to oust May but even if they did the new leader would be caretaker for barely a few months at best before Corbyn takes over and agrees an almost identical deal to May's anyway but with a permanent Customs Union committed to
What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?
They do not have the votes to oust May but even if they did the new leader would be caretaker for barely a few months at best before Corbyn takes over and agrees an almost identical deal to May's anyway but with a permanent Customs Union committed to
The ERG crowd would prefer that it seems, given they would also prefer remain to this deal (that is the implication at any rate, since they appear to be saying this is worse than remaining).
But it does make it a very odd statement. "The PM does not have support for this and must be taken down, then an unknown caretaker with an unknown Brexit position would definitely then sort things out".
May is crap, and the deal is probably crap, but what does rejecting all this achieve? No deal, probably.
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now November 14, 2018
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now November 14, 2018
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now November 14, 2018
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now November 14, 2018
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now November 14, 2018
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now November 14, 2018
How do they hear this? Shouldn't they have surrendered their phones when they went into the meeting?
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now November 14, 2018
How do they hear this? Shouldn't they have surrendered their phones when they went into the meeting?
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now November 14, 2018
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now November 14, 2018
Comments
The ERG hardliners who can't bank wins on 90% of what they wanted.
Europhiles who are willing to trash the country in the forlorn hope of rejoining their beloved EU.
Scottish nationalists wanting to wreck the country to encourage independence.
Irish loyalists happy to trash the country rather than have some minor differences in widget standards.
Labour MPs putting partisan advantage above the wellbeing of the working class, even when it will cement Corbyn in power.
This will end up with a hard left Corbyn government exacerbating the crash of a cliff edge. The resulting devastation to jobs and living standards will drive extreme populism of both the Trump amd Chavez varieties. Sensible conservatism, liberalism and social democracy will all be washed away and the British public will suffer.
WTAF (as I believe the yoot say, or write)
@John_murphy1
30s30 seconds ago
Has the Cabinet murdered Theresa May?
0 replies . 0 retweets 0 likes
See https://www.xe.com/
But it does make it a very odd statement. "The PM does not have support for this and must be taken down, then an unknown caretaker with an unknown Brexit position would definitely then sort things out".
May is crap, and the deal is probably crap, but what does rejecting all this achieve? No deal, probably.
£1=$1.29397 2018-11-14 19:05 UTC
See https://www.xe.com/
I am a bad viewcode
I think he may end shouting for the entirety of Mrs May's statement.
I hope Labour and the Grievers like no deal.
Gavin Barwell apparently seeing junior ministers in 10 minutes
November 14, 2018
https://twitter.com/CharlieCooper8/status/1062774514117947392
While we wait.
£1=$1.29475
Yet.
Gordon Rayner (@gordonrayner)
I am hearing that the Cabinet has agreed to Theresa May's proposed Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. Statement from Prime Minister expected any minute now
November 14, 2018
£1=$1.29670