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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good news for TMay: Montgomerie’s backing suggests that the de

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    kle4 said:

    All pointless theatre - she won't get it through the Commons.

    I am not so sure
    You're an optimistic chap. But why would the DUP change their minds? Why would the ERG? Why would Labour MPs?
    It comes down to No Deal crash out, attempt to revoke leaving or this deal. I'm absoultely convinced tha no significantly better deal could have been agreed. The idea tha Corbyn led Labour could have done better is laughable. Ic omes down to accepting a reasonable compromise that is Brexit and gives some advantages over remain without losing too many of the advantages of remain. Here she stands she can do no other. Those opposing are playing a dangerous game. If they miscalculate they will pay heavy price (I'm talking to you Labour MPs and Lib Dems).
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    AndyJS said:

    Is a record kept of how the cabinet voted for future historians, or is it always secret?
    generally speaking I would expect minutes to be kept. not sure how often they show individual votes though
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    ydoethur said:

    Wasn't it Jim Hacker who said, 'My Cabinet took a unanimous decision,' only for Sir Humphrey to point out that was becuase Hacker said he he would sack anyone who didn't agree?
    Anyone preserving their cabinet place rather than vote their conscience on this vital issue deserves no respect.

    But I'm going to sign off and see how far I can get into any published Brexit papers before I fall asleep.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,255
    AndyJS said:

    Is a record kept of how the cabinet voted for future historians, or is it always secret?
    I think it can be minuted or not at the discretion of the Cabinet.
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    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    All pointless theatre - she won't get it through the Commons.

    I am not so sure
    You're an optimistic chap. But why would the DUP change their minds? Why would the ERG? Why would Labour MPs?
    Just the narrative will grow that to take it down risks no deal
    If May's got any sense then she'll get the vote scheduled before the ECJ rules on A50 revocation. If that gets upheld then the threat of deal or no deal goes away.
    Unfortunately that is not possible as the EU Council is due to meet on the 25th November so vote not before early December
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    All pointless theatre - she won't get it through the Commons.

    I am not so sure
    You're an optimistic chap. But why would the DUP change their minds? Why would the ERG? Why would Labour MPs?
    Just the narrative will grow that to take it down risks no deal
    If May's got any sense then she'll get the vote scheduled before the ECJ rules on A50 revocation. If that gets upheld then the threat of deal or no deal goes away.
    There is still an application to the Supreme Court to appeal the Court of Session decision there. Think they burnt their bridges on that one but it is not a done deal that the matter will even be before the CJEU.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    edited November 2018
    I have belatedly learned that Plato has passed away. She made interesting comments and observations in the rurn up to the last US Presidential Election. She was a feisty lady who was deservedly a PB poster of the year, I enjoyed and appreciated reading her contributions to the site over the years, and am shocked that she died so young and alone. RIP Plato.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780

    kle4 said:

    All pointless theatre - she won't get it through the Commons.

    I am not so sure
    You're an optimistic chap. But why would the DUP change their minds? Why would the ERG? Why would Labour MPs?
    It comes down to No Deal crash out, attempt to revoke leaving or this deal. I'm absoultely convinced that no significantly better deal could have been agreed. The idea tha Corbyn led Labour could have done better is laughable. Ic omes down to accepting a reasonable compromise that is Brexit and gives some advantages over remain without losing too many of the advantages of remain. Here she stands she can do no other. Those opposing are playing a dangerous game. If they miscalculate they will pay heavy price (I'm talking to you Labour MPs and Lib Dems).
    The problem is, either they don't think they have miscalculated, or they don't care so long as they try to revoke leaving (sorry, renegotiate). I don't see what event will convince them otherwise, particularly as they are likely to please their supporters by doing the natural thing, voting against a Tory government (the latter being way overplayed in importance since you can do that all the time, you can even bring them down later, but this deal is more important than just that).
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?
    They do not have the votes to oust May but even if they did the new leader would be caretaker for barely a few months at best before Corbyn takes over and agrees an almost identical deal to May's anyway but with a permanent Customs Union committed to
    The ERG crowd would prefer that it seems, given they would also prefer remain to this deal (that is the implication at any rate, since they appear to be saying this is worse than remaining).

    But it does make it a very odd statement. "The PM does not have support for this and must be taken down, then an unknown caretaker with an unknown Brexit position would definitely then sort things out".

    May is crap, and the deal is probably crap, but what does rejecting all this achieve? No deal, probably.
    What does rejecting all this lead to? Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union, perhaps even by February
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    GIN1138 said:

    I think we can all agree that the PR campaign has to start now. May has to forego her usual tight-lipped approach or find others who can do it for her.

    May's a total waste of space when it comes to "communicating" with the voters (hence her bizarre performance a moment ago) her "selling" anything is a total non-starter...
    What was bizarre about it
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    AndyJS said:

    Is a record kept of how the cabinet voted for future historians, or is it always secret?

    Records of cabinet meetings are confidential documents and only transferred to The National Archives after 30 years - the 30-year rule. At this point most material is released to the public

    http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/cabinetpapers/cabinet-gov/meetings-papers.htm

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Hopefully his seat swings to SNP at the next election. It was a super marginal as recently as 2015.
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    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.

    I heard him interviewed on 5Live this week, he sounded like he had done nothing wrong, and it was all a misunderstanding!
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    DavidL said:

    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    All pointless theatre - she won't get it through the Commons.

    I am not so sure
    You're an optimistic chap. But why would the DUP change their minds? Why would the ERG? Why would Labour MPs?
    Just the narrative will grow that to take it down risks no deal
    If May's got any sense then she'll get the vote scheduled before the ECJ rules on A50 revocation. If that gets upheld then the threat of deal or no deal goes away.
    There is still an application to the Supreme Court to appeal the Court of Session decision there. Think they burnt their bridges on that one but it is not a done deal that the matter will even be before the CJEU.
    If the ECJ has accepted the case onto their docket, wouldn't it require the Scottish Government to withdraw the case if SCOTUK rules against them. Can the court actually make them do it? I suppose they could arrest Sturgeon and hold her in contempt of court until she does so, but that might just trigger a Scottish UDI!
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,255
    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    Help. The ERG will vote against anyway. But a 'deal or no deal' scenario would surely tip the bulk of Labour MPs to the 'aye' lobby.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    What, precisely, will this caretaker leader be expected to do? If they are to be there until the Brexit process is to be completed what Brexit process do they want to be completed?
    They do not have the votes to oust May but even if they did the new leader would be caretaker for barely a few months at best before Corbyn takes over and agrees an almost identical deal to May's anyway but with a permanent Customs Union committed to
    The ERG crowd would prefer that it seems, given they would also prefer remain to this deal (that is the implication at any rate, since they appear to be saying this is worse than remaining).

    But it does make it a very odd statement. "The PM does not have support for this and must be taken down, then an unknown caretaker with an unknown Brexit position would definitely then sort things out".

    May is crap, and the deal is probably crap, but what does rejecting all this achieve? No deal, probably.
    What does rejecting all this lead to? Corbyn as PM and permanent Customs Union, perhaps even by February
    Maybe. It's not unusual for people to be happier with someone else taking a crap decision rather than them.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,011
    Scottish fishermen are almost all No Deal Brexiteers anyway, Moray had the biggest Leave vote in Scotland
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249
    edited November 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    I think we can all agree that the PR campaign has to start now. May has to forego her usual tight-lipped approach or find others who can do it for her.

    May's a total waste of space when it comes to "communicating" with the voters (hence her bizarre performance a moment ago) her "selling" anything is a total non-starter...
    What was bizarre about it
    I think it will play very well with Middle England.

    The Daily Mail under new editor will be key tonight.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,255
    dr_spyn said:

    I have belatedly learned that Plato has passed away. She made interesting comments and observations in the rurn up to the last US Presidential Election. She was a feisty lady who was deservedly a PB poster of the year, I enjoyed and appreciated reading her contributions to the site over the years, and am shocked that she died so young and alone. RIP Plato.

    That is very sad news. I always got on well with Plato, although I watched her disappearance into a dark world of conspiracy and hate with bemusement.

    It's not totally unexpected though in light of recent discussions.
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    any disclosure requirement for that opinion?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.

    Vengeance is a dish best gorged upon!
    Oh, there will be much very fine fizz quaffed, I can assure you. :)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.


    I feel like the write up is meant to make me more sympathetic because he has been in the country a long time, but if he is a convicted criminal and a non-citizen why wouldn't this be the outcome?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Why do I feel that some disembling has gone on here. Will it be an end to the current European quotas?
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    HYUFD said:

    Scottish fishermen are almost all No Deal Brexiteers anyway, Moray had the biggest Leave vote in Scotland
    My wife and families home county
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,255
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.


    I feel like the write up is meant to make me more sympathetic because he has been in the country a long time, but if he is a convicted criminal and a non-citizen why wouldn't this be the outcome?
    Also - why if British residency was so important to him did he never apply for citizenship?
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    How long before Bridgen says something stupid?

    Be a first for him not to
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    Help. The ERG will vote against anyway. But a 'deal or no deal' scenario would surely tip the bulk of Labour MPs to the 'aye' lobby.
    You'd like to think so wouldn't you. Interesting times.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Jonathan said:

    David Davis, must be gutted he can't re-resign tonight. It's what he loves most of all.

    He could force another by-election. One might hope he lost.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.


    I feel like the write up is meant to make me more sympathetic because he has been in the country a long time, but if he is a convicted criminal and a non-citizen why wouldn't this be the outcome?
    Also - why if British residency was so important to him did he never apply for citizenship?
    You need to be of good moral character to get citizenship.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    Help. The ERG will vote against anyway. But a 'deal or no deal' scenario would surely tip the bulk of Labour MPs to the 'aye' lobby.
    I am watching Sky and they have had on sensible Labour MP's, Hilary Benn, Wes Streeting, Catherine West, etc. All saying they can not vote for this deal.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    Help. The ERG will vote against anyway. But a 'deal or no deal' scenario would surely tip the bulk of Labour MPs to the 'aye' lobby.
    Except that May has now opened the 'or no Brexit' option which is already being jumped on by Umunna and Lammy. She is treading a very fine line hoping to persuade more Brexiteers into the 'aye' lobby but it could easily reduce the number of moderate Labour MPs willing to support her.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    dr_spyn said:

    I have belatedly learned that Plato has passed away. She made interesting comments and observations in the rurn up to the last US Presidential Election. She was a feisty lady who was deservedly a PB poster of the year, I enjoyed and appreciated reading her contributions to the site over the years, and am shocked that she died so young and alone. RIP Plato.

    Bloody hell, really? That's appalling news. Damn, I'm sorry to hear that. We've had a lot of bad news for our happy little band recently: @Big_G_NorthWales and (I think) @JosiasJessop and @Barnesian and others have had tribulations and now this. Not good... :(
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,255
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    Help. The ERG will vote against anyway. But a 'deal or no deal' scenario would surely tip the bulk of Labour MPs to the 'aye' lobby.
    You'd like to think so wouldn't you. Interesting times.
    I think it would. If they vote this down and there is no deal, their supporters will crucify them, and I'm not altogether sure that's a metaphor.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,856



    I think it will play very well with Middle England.

    The Daily Mail under new editor will be key tonight.

    The Express this morning was the surprising cheerleader for the Deal. The Sun wasn't supportive and tonight's Evening Standard very hostile.

    A lot will depend on whether the notion of being a vassal State will get any traction or whether "Middle England" which I assume translates as those who are terrified their house price will fall by a third if there is No Deal, will feel relieved.

    Time will tell, it usually does.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    Help
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    GIN1138 said:

    I think we can all agree that the PR campaign has to start now. May has to forego her usual tight-lipped approach or find others who can do it for her.

    May's a total waste of space when it comes to "communicating" with the voters (hence her bizarre performance a moment ago) her "selling" anything is a total non-starter...
    What was bizarre about it
    I think it will play very well with Middle England.

    The Daily Mail under new editor will be key tonight.
    Do you honestly think those Brexit voters who she lied through her teeth to in 2017 and has now sold down the river care what the Mail thinks?

    Papers only reflect their readers views (or they should if they want to make money) they have never driven people's views.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    Help. The ERG will vote against anyway. But a 'deal or no deal' scenario would surely tip the bulk of Labour MPs to the 'aye' lobby.
    You'd like to think so wouldn't you. Interesting times.
    I think it would. If they vote this down and there is no deal, their supporters will crucify them, and I'm not altogether sure that's a metaphor.
    I'd give them the nails...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    Help. The ERG will vote against anyway. But a 'deal or no deal' scenario would surely tip the bulk of Labour MPs to the 'aye' lobby.
    I am watching Sky and they have had on sensible Labour MP's, Hilary Benn, Wes Streeting, Catherine West, etc. All saying they can not vote for this deal.
    Dead as the dodo.
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    Verhofstadt 'encouraging we are moving to a fair deal'
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    Alistair said:

    Why do I feel that some disembling has gone on here. Will it be an end to the current European quotas?
    Presumably we will have to give the EU high fishing quotas as part of the Trade Deal which has yet to be negotiated.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,255
    stodge said:



    I think it will play very well with Middle England.

    The Daily Mail under new editor will be key tonight.

    The Express this morning was the surprising cheerleader for the Deal. The Sun wasn't supportive and tonight's Evening Standard very hostile.

    A lot will depend on whether the notion of being a vassal State will get any traction or whether "Middle England" which I assume translates as those who are terrified their house price will fall by a third if there is No Deal, will feel relieved.

    Time will tell, it usually does.
    If Theresa May invented a cure for cancer, solved world poverty and established intergalactic contact, George Osborne would still criticise her for it.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    Help. The ERG will vote against anyway. But a 'deal or no deal' scenario would surely tip the bulk of Labour MPs to the 'aye' lobby.
    I am watching Sky and they have had on sensible Labour MP's, Hilary Benn, Wes Streeting, Catherine West, etc. All saying they can not vote for this deal.
    Which they haven't read yet. But yes.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    As I understand Labour's position, the claim is that a triumphant Corbyn will be able to negotiate a better deal. (Apologies if I have misunderstood this).

    Barnier could certainly help May by making it clear that the EU is not going to spend another 2 years negotiating with a different UK Government, and going over the same ground again.

    This is the deal that is on offer. The deal that PM Corbyn would get is not going to be very different to PM May.

    The EU does have some other things to be getting on with, other than negotiating endlessly with the UK.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.


    I feel like the write up is meant to make me more sympathetic because he has been in the country a long time, but if he is a convicted criminal and a non-citizen why wouldn't this be the outcome?
    You are absolutely right. He should have been sentenced to the maximum sentence. If the UK's biggest fraud does not merit a 10 year sentence, what the hell does? Adoboli is a man of little talent but with an oversized ego and buckets of self-pity who has been indulged and spoiled. He is and has been good at one thing only: peddling bullshit and telling lies. And that's what he's been doing ever since he was released on licence (and long before, in fact). The pity is the number of gullible fools - many of them MPs - who have fallen for it.

    I know the full truth about him and it has - at times - been agony watching him come out with nonsense with no-one challenging him, not least because there were people really hurt by the harm he caused who deserve - and have not received - even a smidgen of the concern expressed for him, the spoilt son of a well-off family.
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    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.


    I feel like the write up is meant to make me more sympathetic because he has been in the country a long time, but if he is a convicted criminal and a non-citizen why wouldn't this be the outcome?
    Also - why if British residency was so important to him did he never apply for citizenship?
    He said on 5Live that he was advised to get his citizenship years ago by the bank's legal team, but was told he might lose his passport for a few months and he said he needed it for business travel and holidays and would do it when he found the time.
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    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    Is a record kept of how the cabinet voted for future historians, or is it always secret?

    Records of cabinet meetings are confidential documents and only transferred to The National Archives after 30 years - the 30-year rule. At this point most material is released to the public

    http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/cabinetpapers/cabinet-gov/meetings-papers.htm

    The minutes are written by a civil servant of course.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    As I understand Labour's position, the claim is that a triumphant Corbyn will be able to negotiate a better deal. (Apologies if I have misunderstood this).

    Barnier could certainly help May by making it clear that the EU is not going to spend another 2 years negotiating with a different UK Government, and going over the same ground again.

    This is the deal that is on offer. The deal that PM Corbyn would get is not going to be very different to PM May.

    The EU does have some other things to be getting on with, other than negotiating endlessly with the UK.
    Italy, Poland and Hungary come to mind for a start.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,856
    ydoethur said:

    If Theresa May invented a cure for cancer, solved world poverty and established intergalactic contact, George Osborne would still criticise her for it.

    And if she offered to make England a vassal state of France and sold us all into indentured servitude and said all the world's toxic waste would be dumped in Hampshire, there would be those who would praise her for it.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    Verhofstadt 'encouraging we are moving to a fair deal'

    Translation: We've reduced the UK to a vassal state and can make them suffer whenever we wish...
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.


    I feel like the write up is meant to make me more sympathetic because he has been in the country a long time, but if he is a convicted criminal and a non-citizen why wouldn't this be the outcome?
    Also - why if British residency was so important to him did he never apply for citizenship?
    He said on 5Live that he was advised to get his citizenship years ago by the bank's legal team, but was told he might lose his passport for a few months and he said he needed it for business travel and holidays and would do it when he found the time.
    That is absolute balls. All of it. There is not one word of truth in that statement.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031
    viewcode said:

    dr_spyn said:

    I have belatedly learned that Plato has passed away. She made interesting comments and observations in the rurn up to the last US Presidential Election. She was a feisty lady who was deservedly a PB poster of the year, I enjoyed and appreciated reading her contributions to the site over the years, and am shocked that she died so young and alone. RIP Plato.

    Bloody hell, really? That's appalling news. Damn, I'm sorry to hear that. We've had a lot of bad news for our happy little band recently: @Big_G_NorthWales and (I think) @JosiasJessop and @Barnesian and others have had tribulations and now this. Not good... :(
    I doubt you're referring to me; I was ill two or three years ago, but I'm pretty much back to normal now, thanks.

    (I'd be happier if I could work out what my 'normal' was ... ;) )
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    ARTICLE 8: Access to networks, information systems and databases
    Unless otherwise provided in this Agreement, at the end of the transition period the United Kingdom shall cease to be entitled to access any network, any information system and any database established on the basis of Union law.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,474
    edited November 2018

    any disclosure requirement for that opinion?
    Based on my totally fair and balanced opinion.

    Incidentally this is a totally unrelated bet slip of mine

    image
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    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.


    I feel like the write up is meant to make me more sympathetic because he has been in the country a long time, but if he is a convicted criminal and a non-citizen why wouldn't this be the outcome?
    Also - why if British residency was so important to him did he never apply for citizenship?
    He said on 5Live that he was advised to get his citizenship years ago by the bank's legal team, but was told he might lose his passport for a few months and he said he needed it for business travel and holidays and would do it when he found the time.
    That is absolute balls. All of it. There is not one word of truth in that statement.
    He was very slick, but not very convincing. He got skewered by quite a soft interviewer a number of times.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    May now a vassal of the Labour party MPs.

    Time for Labour MPs to ask for a bigger office.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    As I understand Labour's position, the claim is that a triumphant Corbyn will be able to negotiate a better deal. (Apologies if I have misunderstood this).

    Barnier could certainly help May by making it clear that the EU is not going to spend another 2 years negotiating with a different UK Government, and going over the same ground again.

    This is the deal that is on offer. The deal that PM Corbyn would get is not going to be very different to PM May.

    The EU does have some other things to be getting on with, other than negotiating endlessly with the UK.
    Not likely to be Barnier's decision though. The other member states may well be open to different proposals from a new Government even well into the Transition Period.
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    viewcode said:

    ARTICLE 8: Access to networks, information systems and databases
    Unless otherwise provided in this Agreement, at the end of the transition period the United Kingdom shall cease to be entitled to access any network, any information system and any database established on the basis of Union law.

    Er, isn't that our own database systems?
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    any disclosure requirement for that opinion?
    Based on my totally fair and balanced opinion.

    Incidentally this is a totally unrelated bet slip of mine

    image
    Mundell happy with fish arrangement so presumably staying.
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    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:



    I think it will play very well with Middle England.

    The Daily Mail under new editor will be key tonight.

    The Express this morning was the surprising cheerleader for the Deal. The Sun wasn't supportive and tonight's Evening Standard very hostile.

    A lot will depend on whether the notion of being a vassal State will get any traction or whether "Middle England" which I assume translates as those who are terrified their house price will fall by a third if there is No Deal, will feel relieved.

    Time will tell, it usually does.
    If Theresa May invented a cure for cancer, solved world poverty and established intergalactic contact, George Osborne would still criticise her for it.
    Judging by the conversations I had this morning at my volunteering place: most people are desperate for a deal, any deal, anything that gets us out of this mess and means there is food on the shelves.

    I think we underestimate how the fear of No Deal has started to seep into the general view.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    Articles 9-29: UK people resident or working in a EU state will have the same freedoms as now in that EU state but not any others. So if you live and work in France you still can but not now move to, say, Germany. EU people resident in UK retain all freedoms.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    Article 30: as above but for complicated people (stateless, under jurisdiction of X but in Y, etc)
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited November 2018
    I wonder if the French version has the same meaning?

    Page 1

    ................ while not excluding the possibility of relevant separation provisions being superseded by the agreement(s) on the future relationship,
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    As I understand Labour's position, the claim is that a triumphant Corbyn will be able to negotiate a better deal. (Apologies if I have misunderstood this).

    Barnier could certainly help May by making it clear that the EU is not going to spend another 2 years negotiating with a different UK Government, and going over the same ground again.

    This is the deal that is on offer. The deal that PM Corbyn would get is not going to be very different to PM May.

    The EU does have some other things to be getting on with, other than negotiating endlessly with the UK.
    Not likely to be Barnier's decision though. The other member states may well be open to different proposals from a new Government even well into the Transition Period.
    I think you are wrong. This is not just May's deal. It is Barnier's and Verhofstadt's deal as well.

    The EU are not going to waste another year or two going through everything all over again.

    The EU has other things to do.

    The choices are this deal, remain or no deal. I expect the EU will make that crystal-clear.
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    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,081
    edited November 2018
    Why do we have to have that fecking c@#t Blair on giving his sanctimonious shite all the time? Simon Mcoy on BBC this afternoon actually asked him why anybody should listen to "yesterday's man" trying to reverse the will of the people. It made Tony fart, I think!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    The transition period can be extended up to 20XX. We could all be dead before we leave transition.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    ARTICLE 31: Social security coordination rules. It says The Union and the United Kingdom shall take due account of the Decisions and Recommendations of the Administrative Commission for the Coordination of Social Security Systems attached to the European Commission. I have no idea what that means.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    I think it's very simple. If the ECJ has ruled that an Article 50 notification can be withdrawn by the time the deal is voted on in Parliament, then the deal will fail to pass. The only course of action left to the government then will be to withdraw the notification.

    If the ECJ rules that notifications cannot be withdrawn or has not ruled by the time of the parliamentary vote, then the deal will pass. Maybe by the skin of its teeth, but as the only alternative will be disaster, it will pass.
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    Barnier on live on Sky now
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    ARTICLE 32: Special situations covered. I think this refers to people having surgery abroad.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    ARTICLE 33: Nationals of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Not relevant to this discussion
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited November 2018

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:



    I think it will play very well with Middle England.

    The Daily Mail under new editor will be key tonight.

    The Express this morning was the surprising cheerleader for the Deal. The Sun wasn't supportive and tonight's Evening Standard very hostile.

    A lot will depend on whether the notion of being a vassal State will get any traction or whether "Middle England" which I assume translates as those who are terrified their house price will fall by a third if there is No Deal, will feel relieved.

    Time will tell, it usually does.
    If Theresa May invented a cure for cancer, solved world poverty and established intergalactic contact, George Osborne would still criticise her for it.
    Judging by the conversations I had this morning at my volunteering place: most people are desperate for a deal, any deal, anything that gets us out of this mess and means there is food on the shelves.

    I think we underestimate how the fear of No Deal has started to seep into the general view.
    You need to run a analysis of ERG loons to safe seats to see whether reality might bite. Yes though, the silent middle is quite wide and will not always be quiescent.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    viewcode said:

    Articles 9-29: UK people resident or working in a EU state will have the same freedoms as now in that EU state but not any others. So if you live and work in France you still can but not now move to, say, Germany. EU people resident in UK retain all freedoms.

    Makes sense, a Frenchman in Germany won't have the right to be resident in the UK say
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    ARTICLE 34: Administrative cooperation. the United Kingdom shall have the status of observer in the Administrative Commission. So we get to be an observer. Fair enough, and it's the accession procedure in reverse.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    ARTICLE 4
    Non-regression of labour and social standards
    1. With the aim of ensuring the proper functioning of the single customs territory, the Union and the United Kingdom shall ensure that the level of protection provided for by law, regulations and practices is not reduced below the level provided by the common standards applicable within the Union and the United Kingdom at the end of the transition period in the area of labour and social protection and as regards fundamental rights at work, occupational health and safety, fair working conditions and employment standards, information and consultation rights at company level, and restructuring.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    I'm going to have to stop this, otherwise I'm here all night... :(
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Brilliant news!!! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46209149

    Only a mere 5 years 51 weeks and 1 day since he was convicted.

    The lying toerag can go peddle his bullshit in Ghana instead of hawking his pretendy remorse around gullible fools here.

    Vengeance is a dish best eaten cold and I am going to enjoy my dinner tonight, I can tell you.


    I feel like the write up is meant to make me more sympathetic because he has been in the country a long time, but if he is a convicted criminal and a non-citizen why wouldn't this be the outcome?
    Also - why if British residency was so important to him did he never apply for citizenship?
    He said on 5Live that he was advised to get his citizenship years ago by the bank's legal team, but was told he might lose his passport for a few months and he said he needed it for business travel and holidays and would do it when he found the time.
    That is absolute balls. All of it. There is not one word of truth in that statement.
    He was very slick, but not very convincing. He got skewered by quite a soft interviewer a number of times.
    bring back skewering!
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    May's demeanour during her statement said it all - no enthusiasm, spoke in a monotone which had all the excitement of the shipping forecast. Selling a deal on the basis of "this is crap but the alternatives are worse" is always a difficult task and May seems to have no stomach for this task.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    May's demeanour during her statement said it all - no enthusiasm, spoke in a monotone which had all the excitement of the shipping forecast. Selling a deal on the basis of "this is crap but the alternatives are worse" is always a difficult task and May seems to have no stomach for this task.
    She seemed relieved to me, as if she hadn't expected to get it through.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Does “woah” generally mean “statement of the obvious to follow”?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    He cheated! He read the ending! Bad reviewer!
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    We knew all this. They are piss and wind as far as the 48 letters goes.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    edited November 2018
    2. Directive 2006/112/EC shall continue to apply until 5 years after the end of the transition period with regard to the taxable person's rights and obligations in relation to transactions with a cross-border element between the United Kingdom and a Member State that took place before the end of the transition period and with regard to transactions covered by paragraph 1.

    Does this mean no removal of VAT on sanitary products, for example, for at least 7 years?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    I see we are out out by 2100. That might actually be relevant for our grandchildten
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    That just means the date hasn't been finalised yet; the final agreement will have a date.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    Perhaps Arlene Foster said the backstop would come into effect over her dead body.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    That just means the date hasn't been finalised yet; the final agreement will have a date.
    I don’t think so. This is the stable text.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited November 2018

    2. Directive 2006/112/EC shall continue to apply until 5 years after the end of the transition period with regard to the taxable person's rights and obligations in relation to transactions with a cross-border element between the United Kingdom and a Member State that took place before the end of the transition period and with regard to transactions covered by paragraph 1.

    Does this mean no removal of VAT on sanitary products, for example, for at least 7 years?

    No - stress on the "relation to transactions with a cross-border element between the United Kingdom and a Member State that took place before the end of the transition period" - the five years is for the settlement of your outstanding liabilities.

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,625
    Bunch of spineless bottlers.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    If Barnier makes it clear that this is it, this or no deal, will that help or hinder May? The psychosis of some of the Brexiteers makes that uncertain to my mind.

    As I understand Labour's position, the claim is that a triumphant Corbyn will be able to negotiate a better deal. (Apologies if I have misunderstood this).

    Barnier could certainly help May by making it clear that the EU is not going to spend another 2 years negotiating with a different UK Government, and going over the same ground again.

    This is the deal that is on offer. The deal that PM Corbyn would get is not going to be very different to PM May.

    The EU does have some other things to be getting on with, other than negotiating endlessly with the UK.
    Not likely to be Barnier's decision though. The other member states may well be open to different proposals from a new Government even well into the Transition Period.
    I think you are wrong. This is not just May's deal. It is Barnier's and Verhofstadt's deal as well.

    The EU are not going to waste another year or two going through everything all over again.

    The EU has other things to do.

    The choices are this deal, remain or no deal. I expect the EU will make that crystal-clear.
    "making it clear" in a negotiation means fuck all. What's signed is what matters and then what matters is the interpretation/ determination is the meaning of what's signed is challenged. Even then I suspect that a Sovereign state could walk away from anything. Fancy having to rely on Corbyn and some Tory nutters.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794

    2. Directive 2006/112/EC shall continue to apply until 5 years after the end of the transition period with regard to the taxable person's rights and obligations in relation to transactions with a cross-border element between the United Kingdom and a Member State that took place before the end of the transition period and with regard to transactions covered by paragraph 1.

    Does this mean no removal of VAT on sanitary products, for example, for at least 7 years?

    Yes, for cross-border transactions that were created before the end of the transition period. Prevents you starting a deal five minutes before the end then five minutes after going "hah-hah, fingers crossed!".
This discussion has been closed.