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SystemSystem Posts: 12,677
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good news for TMay: Montgomerie’s backing suggests that the deal has a better chance of being agreed

Founder of ConHome, @montie backs the deal. https://t.co/3T70zwhIoA

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,722
    Was nearly enough to make me oppose the deal.

    For a bit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,722
    But Mark Reckless is opposed so I love this deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,216
    Tim Montgomerie backs the Deal only as he is opposed to Remain or No Deal
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    He can easily recant when the nasties in the text are brought to his attention.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,949
    williamglenn said:

    He can easily recant when the nasties in the text are brought to his attention.

    Indeed. Everyone is posturing over a document that almost nobody has read
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Any idea when plebs like us will be able to see the deal in all its glory?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Not a surprise.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Even though I'm passionately in favour of this deal I did warn the Tories they should get the DUP onside for a deal..
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    Does anyone know how Labours six tests would ever happen without staying in the EU?

    It's a simple proposition. If what we have now (the EU) isn't good enough, then what replaces it HAS to be better, or in the very least not worse than.
    That's far from simple as you have to agree how to calculate the metric for judging what is better or worse.

    If the referendum showed us anything it is that the country is divided on how to calculate that metric. This makes your statement a meaningless platitude, at best.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    How many, Boris?

    https://twitter.com/kateemccann/status/1062402428291690496?s=21
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    edited November 2018
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Any idea when plebs like us will be able to see the deal in all its glory?

    Sounds like the EU will release it tonight.

    Not sure how many MPs were waiting to hear Tim Montgomery's take before making their minds up, think we are too far gone for endorsements to count for much now. Will come down to how much Tories fear what happens next if the deal falls. Looks like only 15 or so non-Convservative votes for the deal, so the Tories are going to have to get all waverers and some declared rebels to find an excuse to end up voting for this.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    Does anyone know how Labours six tests would ever happen without staying in the EU?

    It's a simple proposition. If what we have now (the EU) isn't good enough, then what replaces it HAS to be better, or in the very least not worse than.
    How can that ever happen?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,857
    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    May will probably offer Cable a few Govt. posts in exchange for supporting PR.....and voting through her deal.

    Nothing would surprise me any more.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Fair enough.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Any idea when plebs like us will be able to see the deal in all its glory?

    After the Cabinet?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    tpfkar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Any idea when plebs like us will be able to see the deal in all its glory?

    Sounds like the EU will release it tonight.

    Not sure how many MPs were waiting to hear at Tim Montgomery's take before making their minds up, think we are too far gone for endorsements to count for much now. Will come down to how much Tories fear what happens next if the deal falls. Looks like only 15 or so non-Convservative votes for the deal, so the Tories are going to have to get all waverers and some declared rebels to find an excuse to end up voting for this.
    Would be a bit embarrassing for the secretive and undemocratic EU to release the text before the shining democratic beacon that is HMG.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    RochdalePioneers said:

    williamglenn said:

    He can easily recant when the nasties in the text are brought to his attention.

    Indeed. Everyone is posturing over a document that almost nobody has read
    Boris and Mogg were out the blocks very quickly
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,857
    currystar said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    Does anyone know how Labours six tests would ever happen without staying in the EU?

    It's a simple proposition. If what we have now (the EU) isn't good enough, then what replaces it HAS to be better, or in the very least not worse than.
    How can that ever happen?
    Magic Grandpa's Magic Deal Beans.....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,949
    currystar said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    Does anyone know how Labours six tests would ever happen without staying in the EU?

    It's a simple proposition. If what we have now (the EU) isn't good enough, then what replaces it HAS to be better, or in the very least not worse than.
    How can that ever happen?
    It can't. Our voters did not vote to make themselves worse off. They want to be better off. So we inaist that the deal has to deliver.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    Gallowgate said:

    May does not sound like a woman on the ropes...

    May is at the Martin Luther stage. Here I stand. I can do no other.

    The offer to Remainers is that we keep some of the stuff we already have. To Leavers: we're definitively OUT.

  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Pulpstar said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    williamglenn said:

    He can easily recant when the nasties in the text are brought to his attention.

    Indeed. Everyone is posturing over a document that almost nobody has read
    Boris and Mogg were out the blocks very quickly
    Boris is purely putting himself first, as always. JRM, Bone etc are purists, just like Blair, Greening, Jo Johnson on the other. They are willing to plunge the country into Hard Brexit Corbyn socialism because they can't get 100% of what their ideology demands.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2018
    https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1062692698505838594

    https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1062696769694453760
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    Does anyone know how Labours six tests would ever happen without staying in the EU?

    It's a simple proposition. If what we have now (the EU) isn't good enough, then what replaces it HAS to be better, or in the very least not worse than.
    How can that ever happen?
    It can't. Our voters did not vote to make themselves worse off. They want to be better off. So we inaist that the deal has to deliver.
    “Your” voters (and that’s s very proprietorial claim” voted to leave

    You don’t know anything else for sure
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    CarlottaVance said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Any idea when plebs like us will be able to see the deal in all its glory?

    After the Cabinet?
    I wonder what would qualify as a short/normal/long Cabinet discussion on the deal?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,026
    I could tolerate the referendum result but this whole negotiation has been a national embarrassment. Perhaps it would have been better to let the leavers own the result in the true sense. Being unprepared for no deal meant the EU could offer whatever they wanted and we would have no option to accept. May's threats that 'it's me or chaos' have rightly been laughed out of Brussels.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    May's deal will look like sunlit upland of milk and honey compared to the potential chaos of no deal or utter betrayal of not leaving.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Philip_Thompson said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Fair enough.
    Not really. They have avoided the customs border in the Irish Sea they had a point over. Now they are throwing their toys out the pram because of a handful of regulatory differences when they already have a completely different legal system.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    Does anyone know how Labours six tests would ever happen without staying in the EU?

    It's a simple proposition. If what we have now (the EU) isn't good enough, then what replaces it HAS to be better, or in the very least not worse than.
    How can that ever happen?
    It can't. Our voters did not vote to make themselves worse off. They want to be better off. So we inaist that the deal has to deliver.
    It's just ridiculous and you are to blame. The voters absolutely voted to make themselves worse off. That was the obvious consequence of Brexit. I believe it was termed "a price worth paying" at the time on account of the oodles of sovereignty we would be reclaiming thereby.

    So please don't give us all this "great idea badly implemented" communism-type bollocks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1062698100840714240
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    OblitusSumMe said:

    tpfkar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Any idea when plebs like us will be able to see the deal in all its glory?

    Sounds like the EU will release it tonight.

    Not sure how many MPs were waiting to hear at Tim Montgomery's take before making their minds up, think we are too far gone for endorsements to count for much now. Will come down to how much Tories fear what happens next if the deal falls. Looks like only 15 or so non-Convservative votes for the deal, so the Tories are going to have to get all waverers and some declared rebels to find an excuse to end up voting for this.
    Would be a bit embarrassing for the secretive and undemocratic EU to release the text before the shining democratic beacon that is HMG.
    Haha yes, I always thought it was ironic that at the start of the negotiation process when the government were saying all the 'keeping our cards close' 'don't want to reveal our negotiating position' 'not giving a running commentary' nonsense, that the EU position was fully published and on their website!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Charles said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    Does anyone know how Labours six tests would ever happen without staying in the EU?

    It's a simple proposition. If what we have now (the EU) isn't good enough, then what replaces it HAS to be better, or in the very least not worse than.
    How can that ever happen?
    It can't. Our voters did not vote to make themselves worse off. They want to be better off. So we inaist that the deal has to deliver.
    “Your” voters (and that’s s very proprietorial claim” voted to leave

    You don’t know anything else for sure
    That's literally true. You don't know for sure whether they actually wanted us to leave, for example. Some just registered a protest vote in the expectation that it would never happen.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    FrankBooth said:

    I could tolerate the referendum result but this whole negotiation has been a national embarrassment. Perhaps it would have been better to let the leavers own the result in the true sense. Being unprepared for no deal meant the EU could offer whatever they wanted and we would have no option to accept. May's threats that 'it's me or chaos' have rightly been laughed out of Brussels.

    Which is why the EU lost out on the annexation of Northern Ireland, a veto on the exit mechanism, freedom of movement, ECJ rule and control of our service sectors.

    People are pushing their agendas with no reflection on the actual facts. You would be saying the same thing no matter what was in the deal.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    FPT - very sad to hear about Plato and it is always terrible when someone dies so relatively young. I liked the way she posted and, while some of the comments on here may have been "forceful", it sounds like she would have hated anyone to temper their thoughts in case they offended her.

    On a different topic, if of interest, an interesting piece as to why Arizon went blue. The basic upshot is that McSally wasn't a great candidate and the Democrats were organised. But I think the underlying tone is that Arizona may not be lost to the Republicans

    https://ricochet.com/572300/5-reasons-why-sinema-won-arizona/
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited November 2018
    Charles said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    currystar said:

    Does anyone know how Labours six tests would ever happen without staying in the EU?

    It's a simple proposition. If what we have now (the EU) isn't good enough, then what replaces it HAS to be better, or in the very least not worse than.
    How can that ever happen?
    It can't. Our voters did not vote to make themselves worse off. They want to be better off. So we inaist that the deal has to deliver.
    “Your” voters (and that’s s very proprietorial claim” voted to leave

    You don’t know anything else for sure
    Well, we do know that they were told by pretty much every informed source that they'd be worse off as a result, so I really don't see how anyone can claim that they didn't vote to make themselves worse off. Either they didn't believe it - in which case what has changed? - or they thought it was worth a price worth paying. The only new piece of information is that the economy hasn't so far been hit as badly as expected.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Theo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Fair enough.
    Not really. They have avoided the customs border in the Irish Sea they had a point over. Now they are throwing their toys out the pram because of a handful of regulatory differences when they already have a completely different legal system.
    They have a different legal system where they CHOOSE to differentiate! Its democracy.

    The proposal is for them to have a regulatory regime that they have no say over. That is completely undemocratic and makes them a vassal.

    If MLAs were choosing to stay aligned with EU regulations and they could diverge following an election this would be reasonable. But they are losing all right to elect anyone to shape their laws.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Even though I'm passionately in favour of this deal I did warn the Tories they should get the DUP onside for a deal..
    Yes - quite how Mrs May intends to run the country without them for more than a few weeks is as yet unsolved.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062699220417814528
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,212
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Even though I'm passionately in favour of this deal I did warn the Tories they should get the DUP onside for a deal..
    Yes - quite how Mrs May intends to run the country without them for more than a few weeks is as yet unsolved.
    I wonder if Jezza is tempted to go for a vote of no confidence this evening?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Carwyn Jones keeping his powder dry
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,631
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Fair enough.
    Not really. They have avoided the customs border in the Irish Sea they had a point over. Now they are throwing their toys out the pram because of a handful of regulatory differences when they already have a completely different legal system.
    They have a different legal system where they CHOOSE to differentiate! Its democracy.

    The proposal is for them to have a regulatory regime that they have no say over. That is completely undemocratic and makes them a vassal.

    If MLAs were choosing to stay aligned with EU regulations and they could diverge following an election this would be reasonable. But they are losing all right to elect anyone to shape their laws.
    However, MLAs are choosing nowt right now as they aren't sitting.
    Therefore, they currently have no say about owt anyway.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tlg86 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Even though I'm passionately in favour of this deal I did warn the Tories they should get the DUP onside for a deal..
    Yes - quite how Mrs May intends to run the country without them for more than a few weeks is as yet unsolved.
    I wonder if Jezza is tempted to go for a vote of no confidence this evening?
    Well he would lose that wouldn't he.

    Cons, DUP don't want a GE.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited November 2018
    RochdalePioneers said:

    williamglenn said:

    He can easily recant when the nasties in the text are brought to his attention.

    Indeed. Everyone is posturing over a document that almost nobody has read
    What is the problem? It happens on PB all the time - no matter what the header, below the line it is Brexit, Brexit, Brexit. I routinely skip any header dealing with the US and just skip to today's Brexit postings :D
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1062698100840714240

    There will be no bookie job losses, from my recent experience of betting shops most people are playing the £2 a spin fruit machine elements now anyway. The bookies will just push these more over the next few months. As an aside, on my online Coral account I tried to have £2 e/w on a horse yesterday and was refused. I am a small loser on the account, I just use it for betting on sport and horses.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,212
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062699220417814528

    This was my first thought...

    https://twitter.com/HamCroque/status/1062699246493880320
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,027
    The positioning, tactics, spin and posturing over the next few weeks before the vote will be fascinating and probably the most dramatic parliamentary occurrence since the Norway Debate. I can’t wait for the memoirs to come out.

    The politics of all this could change very rapidly as each side ramps up for the vote. The implications of a failed vote, and what the government threatens, will probably be very significant in affecting the overall outcome.

    The party I find the most interesting is Labour. At this stage we’ve got Thornberry and Starmer saying no to the deal because it doesn’t meet the impossible six tests. If that comes under scrutiny in the following weeks you wonder if the narrative might change: yes Labour are threatening to bring down the government over this, but for what? Aren’t they dramatically increasing the risk of no deal? Are they going to force the electorate to troop out in the cold for a January election? Etc etc.

    I also said yesterday that if I were TMay I’d tell the ERG if I lose the vote it’ll be second referendum time if the government survives. She’s got nothing to lose and that might win over a few waverers.

    I am wondering if we are going to get to a stage where Labour, or a chunk of Labour, abstains.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TGOHF said:

    tlg86 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Even though I'm passionately in favour of this deal I did warn the Tories they should get the DUP onside for a deal..
    Yes - quite how Mrs May intends to run the country without them for more than a few weeks is as yet unsolved.
    I wonder if Jezza is tempted to go for a vote of no confidence this evening?
    Well he would lose that wouldn't he.

    Cons, DUP don't want a GE.

    Nice to see you have your finger on the DUP's pulse.... "Donaldson said the DUP did not “fear a general election”, even one where Jeremy Corbyn could enter No 10."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/14/dup-warns-may-over-brexit-deal-as-cabinet-prepares-for-showdown

    :D:D
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Toms wins today's Twitter.
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1062699089639415810
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1062701760039522304
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Beverley_C said:

    TGOHF said:

    tlg86 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Even though I'm passionately in favour of this deal I did warn the Tories they should get the DUP onside for a deal..
    Yes - quite how Mrs May intends to run the country without them for more than a few weeks is as yet unsolved.
    I wonder if Jezza is tempted to go for a vote of no confidence this evening?
    Well he would lose that wouldn't he.

    Cons, DUP don't want a GE.

    Nice to see you have your finger on the DUP's pulse.... "Donaldson said the DUP did not “fear a general election”, even one where Jeremy Corbyn could enter No 10."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/14/dup-warns-may-over-brexit-deal-as-cabinet-prepares-for-showdown

    :D:D
    I think that would make me more confident the DUP DON'T want an election
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1062700977030119425
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    edited November 2018
    numbertwelve said:

    The positioning, tactics, spin and posturing over the next few weeks before the vote will be fascinating and probably the most dramatic parliamentary occurrence since the Norway Debate. I can’t wait for the memoirs to come out.

    The politics of all this could change very rapidly as each side ramps up for the vote. The implications of a failed vote, and what the government threatens, will probably be very significant in affecting the overall outcome.

    The party I find the most interesting is Labour. At this stage we’ve got Thornberry and Starmer saying no to the deal because it doesn’t meet the impossible six tests. If that comes under scrutiny in the following weeks you wonder if the narrative might change: yes Labour are threatening to bring down the government over this, but for what? Aren’t they dramatically increasing the risk of no deal? Are they going to force the electorate to troop out in the cold for a January election? Etc etc.

    I also said yesterday that if I were TMay I’d tell the ERG if I lose the vote it’ll be second referendum time if the government survives. She’s got nothing to lose and that might win over a few waverers.

    I am wondering if we are going to get to a stage where Labour, or a chunk of Labour, abstains.

    With even Kenneth Clarke MP being delighted that this deal is remaining in all but name I think Labour will come under a LOT of pressure to vote for the deal.

    It's the Tories that are in deep, deep trouble over Theresa May's betrayal. It's hard to see how they can possibly stay together.

    Right now I'd say its about 80% likely we get a Corbyn government following a Con split and Con voters going on strike across the Shires...

    We are potentially witnessing the end of the Conservative Party.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Fair enough.
    Not really. They have avoided the customs border in the Irish Sea they had a point over. Now they are throwing their toys out the pram because of a handful of regulatory differences when they already have a completely different legal system.
    They have a different legal system where they CHOOSE to differentiate! Its democracy.

    The proposal is for them to have a regulatory regime that they have no say over. That is completely undemocratic and makes them a vassal.

    If MLAs were choosing to stay aligned with EU regulations and they could diverge following an election this would be reasonable. But they are losing all right to elect anyone to shape their laws.
    They are not losing anything. They currently do not have any say over goods regulation. They are GAINING rights they have not had for decades to decide over service regulations.

    In addition, they also, very loudly, support union with Great Britain. Part and parcel of that deal is that the UK government decides some of their policies for them. This is especially the case when they refuse to compromise over reforming the assembly. In this case, the UK government is deciding for the good of avoiding a hard border that they follow EU regulations in some limited areas covering less than a quarter of their economy.

    It's the same desire to be outraged and purists of the Brexit ultras and the forever Remainers.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Beverley_C said:

    TGOHF said:

    tlg86 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Even though I'm passionately in favour of this deal I did warn the Tories they should get the DUP onside for a deal..
    Yes - quite how Mrs May intends to run the country without them for more than a few weeks is as yet unsolved.
    I wonder if Jezza is tempted to go for a vote of no confidence this evening?
    Well he would lose that wouldn't he.

    Cons, DUP don't want a GE.

    Nice to see you have your finger on the DUP's pulse.... "Donaldson said the DUP did not “fear a general election”, even one where Jeremy Corbyn could enter No 10."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/14/dup-warns-may-over-brexit-deal-as-cabinet-prepares-for-showdown

    :D:D
    I think that would make me more confident the DUP DON'T want an election
    Is it "Opposite Day"?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    Relevant piece by PBer:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/11/are-there-40-labour-mps-ready-to-save-mays-brexit-deal/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2018
    dixiedean said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Fair enough.
    Not really. They have avoided the customs border in the Irish Sea they had a point over. Now they are throwing their toys out the pram because of a handful of regulatory differences when they already have a completely different legal system.
    They have a different legal system where they CHOOSE to differentiate! Its democracy.

    The proposal is for them to have a regulatory regime that they have no say over. That is completely undemocratic and makes them a vassal.

    If MLAs were choosing to stay aligned with EU regulations and they could diverge following an election this would be reasonable. But they are losing all right to elect anyone to shape their laws.
    However, MLAs are choosing nowt right now as they aren't sitting.
    Therefore, they currently have no say about owt anyway.
    They get to elect both MPs and MLAs (as well currently as MEPs too). That the MLAs they've elected won't work together isn't material. If a divergent NI regulation were to be changed in the future at the moment who would determine it? If eg NI voters wanted to legalise abortion is there a referendum where they could elect those helping determine the decision? Yes.

    In the future EU regulations would be determined with zero democratic input from NI voters. They'd elect no MEPs. They'd have no representation in the European Council. They would be a colony effectively.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    NickPalmer said:

    Relevant piece by PBer:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/11/are-there-40-labour-mps-ready-to-save-mays-brexit-deal/

    OK Nick, I've got you down for "no more than six".

    I think you will be surprised...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    NickPalmer said:

    Relevant piece by PBer:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/11/are-there-40-labour-mps-ready-to-save-mays-brexit-deal/

    Nice piece, Nick. I agree (what do I know about the inner workings of a Labour MP's mind...) and we discussed this this morning; it's presumably the job of the opposition to oppose.

    How would you have voted, and why?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Theo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Fair enough.
    Not really. They have avoided the customs border in the Irish Sea they had a point over. Now they are throwing their toys out the pram because of a handful of regulatory differences when they already have a completely different legal system.
    They have a different legal system where they CHOOSE to differentiate! Its democracy.

    The proposal is for them to have a regulatory regime that they have no say over. That is completely undemocratic and makes them a vassal.

    If MLAs were choosing to stay aligned with EU regulations and they could diverge following an election this would be reasonable. But they are losing all right to elect anyone to shape their laws.
    They are not losing anything. They currently do not have any say over goods regulation. They are GAINING rights they have not had for decades to decide over service regulations.

    In addition, they also, very loudly, support union with Great Britain. Part and parcel of that deal is that the UK government decides some of their policies for them. This is especially the case when they refuse to compromise over reforming the assembly. In this case, the UK government is deciding for the good of avoiding a hard border that they follow EU regulations in some limited areas covering less than a quarter of their economy.

    It's the same desire to be outraged and purists of the Brexit ultras and the forever Remainers.
    How do they currently not have any say over goods regulations? They currently elect MEPs as well as MPs. Who would they elect in the future?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,722
    Anorak said:

    Toms wins today's Twitter.
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1062699089639415810

    That’s Se7en isn’t it ?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Even though I'm passionately in favour of this deal I did warn the Tories they should get the DUP onside for a deal..
    Yes - quite how Mrs May intends to run the country without them for more than a few weeks is as yet unsolved.
    Which explains the climbdown on the FOBT..it would have threatened the finance bill
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2018
    https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1062702033080336385

    Everyone, on all sides of the house and all parts of the Brexit spectrum, has reason to be unhappy about this. Even so, there is a piquant irony in seeing committed Brexiteers complaining that if this is the deal, it’s worse than remaining a full member of the EU. Well, yes, that’s what some people suggested in the spring of 2016 too. Back then, however, life was all sunshine and roses and dreams were dreamt of gambolling with unicorns in the sweet-flowering meadows of cake-filled national liberation.

    Oddly, it hasn’t quite worked out like that.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited November 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    Toms wins today's Twitter.
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1062699089639415810

    That’s Se7en isn’t it ?
    No - the glowy, golden thing in the box is the tattered remnant of Mrs May's political ambitions. Heads in boxes are reputed to be found in a certain Editor's freezers... ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I'll buy at 4 for a grand a seat.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1062702033080336385

    Everyone, on all sides of the house and all parts of the Brexit spectrum, has reason to be unhappy about this. Even so, there is a piquant irony in seeing committed Brexiteers complaining that if this is the deal, it’s worse than remaining a full member of the EU. Well, yes, that’s what some people suggested in the spring of 2016 too. Back then, however, life was all sunshine and roses and dreams were dreamt of gambolling with unicorns in the sweet-flowering meadows of cake-filled national liberation.

    Oddly, it hasn’t quite worked out like that.

    Because a Remainer usurped Brexit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,912
    NickPalmer said:

    Relevant piece by PBer:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/11/are-there-40-labour-mps-ready-to-save-mays-brexit-deal/

    6 lab mps will support it? not enough surely to save may?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    edited November 2018
    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anorak said:

    Toms wins today's Twitter.
    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1062699089639415810

    That’s Se7en isn’t it ?
    Should have been "in the briefcase", I suppose, you pedantic bastard.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,868
    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    And who would replace them? UKIP is now BNP lite.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    'We can't have a Canada 1993 style election as May's already thrown away the Conservatives majority as a starting point so we don't have as far to fall.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    edited November 2018
    OT - this is an interesting look at the decline of Harley-Davidson: https://jalopnik.com/how-harley-davidsons-all-in-bet-on-its-past-crippled-it-1830332227

    But on-topic, this line jumped out:

    “My generation viewed Harleys as American fast, loud, muscle. We liked that stuff,” Gordon said. “[My students] view it as the tired old folks who screwed up America.”

    I suspect you could say the same of the Conservative Party. May could perhaps win today's battle, but the war isn't going the right way for her.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,912
    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    They'll have more seats than if there is No Deal and the meds run out. In that case it will be a Canada style wipeout.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    More projection than a 24-screen multiplex.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    Can we ask ourselves who is happy today (details of the deal nothwithstanding)?

    Presumably a non-trivial proportion of the 17.4m which I suppose is enough.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Relevant piece by PBer:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/11/are-there-40-labour-mps-ready-to-save-mays-brexit-deal/

    OK Nick, I've got you down for "no more than six".

    I think you will be surprised...
    Might be. I'm not really sure, but I think that Labour MPs who are perceived as saving the Government AND facilitating Brexit will be deselected. All of them. Those who were planning to retire anyway may not care, though even there it's tough to run into sheer hostility from long-standing colleagues in the CLP.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    This is so stupid. The Conservatives have collapsed in London because of huge demographic change and people not being able to afford homes and families. Do you know what drives that? Vast uncontrollable immigration. Do you know what will control that? THIS DEAL.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited November 2018
    Just been informed by St.John, another PB old-timer, of the sad passing of Plato at such a relatively young age.
    I always found her to be a very intelligent, interesting and feisty poster who at one time was one of the most active on PB.com.Indeed some 5 years ago or thereabouts, she was voted Poster of the Year. Although seemingly not actively employed over recent years, it was clear that she had held senior positions in business, including telecoms iirc.
    Hopefully the likes of OGH, TSE, SeanT even will include their own tributes. After all, the success of PB.com was for a number of years due in no small part down to her participation on this site.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    We should be on amber alert for a GE as a result of this. There was a tweet earlier that the No 10 spokesman couldn't confirm whether the Con-DUP C&S arrangement was operational. If the DUP abstain on a VoNC, I reckon the Tories win 315-312 if everyone turns up, the Dep Speakers don't vote, everyone votes according to party whip, the (other) opposition parties all vote against, the MPs who are suspended from or resigned their whip vote with their parent party, and Sinn Fein stay away. Not all of those are safe assumptions and three votes in over 600 is extremely tight. Obviously, if the DUP vote against, it's game over.

    However, the timetable for a GE would be horrible. I reckon it'd look something like:

    Today: cabinet signs of text of deal.
    25 Nov: EU summit signs off deal.
    27 Nov: HoC votes down deal.
    29 Nov: HoC passes VoNC in govt.
    13 Dec: Two-week period lapses; no new govt. Proclamation of election delayed until new Year. Merry Christmas.
    Early Jan: parliament dissolved
    31 Jan: General election
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    edited November 2018
    El_Capitano said:

    OT - this is an interesting look at the decline of Harley-Davidson: https://jalopnik.com/how-harley-davidsons-all-in-bet-on-its-past-crippled-it-1830332227

    But on-topic, this line jumped out:

    “My generation viewed Harleys as American fast, loud, muscle. We liked that stuff,” Gordon said. “[My students] view it as the tired old folks who screwed up America.”

    I suspect you could say the same of the Conservative Party. May could perhaps win today's battle, but the war isn't going the right way for her.

    And that is precisely why this deal needs to go through the commons. The status quo ante needs to be moved on to a Britain outside of the EU.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1062702033080336385

    Everyone, on all sides of the house and all parts of the Brexit spectrum, has reason to be unhappy about this. Even so, there is a piquant irony in seeing committed Brexiteers complaining that if this is the deal, it’s worse than remaining a full member of the EU. Well, yes, that’s what some people suggested in the spring of 2016 too. Back then, however, life was all sunshine and roses and dreams were dreamt of gambolling with unicorns in the sweet-flowering meadows of cake-filled national liberation.

    Oddly, it hasn’t quite worked out like that.

    Except that's not true. May has negotiated 70% of the benefits of the EU with 90% of the benefits of leaving.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    TOPPING said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Relevant piece by PBer:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/11/are-there-40-labour-mps-ready-to-save-mays-brexit-deal/

    Nice piece, Nick. I agree (what do I know about the inner workings of a Labour MP's mind...) and we discussed this this morning; it's presumably the job of the opposition to oppose.

    How would you have voted, and why?
    Well, to be fair I'd read the thing first - yes, 500 pages or whatever. But I'd expect to vote no. I flatly do not believe that the alternative is chaos. I don't care about the Irish Sea stuff, but it's solved by permanent customs union anyway. Essentially I see the deal as a tactical patchwork aimed at Tory MPs, and not worth saving.

    But I'm a 2nd vote man.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Look what's happened to oil prices over the last month.

    http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/6-month/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1062706806487687168
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I'll buy at 4 for a grand a seat.
    I dont buy it either but thats their fear.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,027
    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    Where do all the Tory voters go?

    To LAB? There’s still a lot of fear of Uncle Jez.

    To LD? Perhaps the remainian rump might, I guess, but I can’t see hordes moving that way,

    To UKIP? In their current state?!

    They’re currently tied or just ahead in the polls. I’m not in any doubt that they could have a bad election but suggesting absolute decimation is a bit hyperbolic at this stage.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    Even though I'm passionately in favour of this deal I did warn the Tories they should get the DUP onside for a deal..
    It was absolutely stupid - but entirely predictable going by past actions - that the DUP weren't invited to No 10 yesterday. Arlene Foster and Sammy Wilson are both members of the Privy Council. That should be sufficient clearance.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    NickPalmer said:

    TOPPING said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Relevant piece by PBer:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/11/are-there-40-labour-mps-ready-to-save-mays-brexit-deal/

    Nice piece, Nick. I agree (what do I know about the inner workings of a Labour MP's mind...) and we discussed this this morning; it's presumably the job of the opposition to oppose.

    How would you have voted, and why?
    Well, to be fair I'd read the thing first - yes, 500 pages or whatever. But I'd expect to vote no. I flatly do not believe that the alternative is chaos. I don't care about the Irish Sea stuff, but it's solved by permanent customs union anyway. Essentially I see the deal as a tactical patchwork aimed at Tory MPs, and not worth saving.

    But I'm a 2nd vote man.
    I always knew you had a good side, in spite of all those years in Labour :D
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    Theo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    This is so stupid. The Conservatives have collapsed in London because of huge demographic change and people not being able to afford homes and families. Do you know what drives that? Vast uncontrollable immigration.
    Oh, come on.

    Immigration is believed to have put house prices up by 21% in the last 25 years. Sure.

    Except that house prices have actually increased by 320% in this period. So immigration is a minor factor.

    And looking into the future: "In 2008, Professor Stephen Nickell, then-head of the NHPAU, said that with projected housebuilding and immigration rates, the average house price would rise from 7 times the average income, to 10 times the average income over the period 2006 to 2026. However, if net migration was reduced to zero, the average house price would only increase to nine times the average income over the same period."

    Well, that's ok then. If a house is only nine times the average income, I'll buy two.

    https://fullfact.org/immigration/have-house-prices-risen-because-immigrants/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Theo said:

    Except that's not true. May has negotiated 70% of the benefits of the EU with 90% of the benefits of leaving.

    In particular the benefit of not having to bother having any MEPs or Commissioners anymore, and leaving it up to others to deal with. It was always such a hassle...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    El_Capitano said:

    Theo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    This is so stupid. The Conservatives have collapsed in London because of huge demographic change and people not being able to afford homes and families. Do you know what drives that? Vast uncontrollable immigration.
    Oh, come on.

    Immigration is believed to have put house prices up by 21% in the last 25 years. Sure.

    Except that house prices have actually increased by 320% in this period. So immigration is a minor factor.

    And looking into the future: "In 2008, Professor Stephen Nickell, then-head of the NHPAU, said that with projected housebuilding and immigration rates, the average house price would rise from 7 times the average income, to 10 times the average income over the period 2006 to 2026. However, if net migration was reduced to zero, the average house price would only increase to nine times the average income over the same period."

    Well, that's ok then. If a house is only nine times the average income, I'll buy two.

    https://fullfact.org/immigration/have-house-prices-risen-because-immigrants/
    https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

    Check the graph on the right - real house prices peaked in 2007. We seem to be in a period now of nominal increase but adjusted for inflation decline.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,868
    So my understanding is that the draft agreement will be made public tonight. Is that correct?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    david_herdson said:

    timmo said:

    There is talk on the wires of the DUP pulling out of the confidence and supply deal they are currently in with the Government.
    Whips have told all MPs to not go on unnecessary journeys away from the UK

    We should be on amber alert for a GE as a result of this. There was a tweet earlier that the No 10 spokesman couldn't confirm whether the Con-DUP C&S arrangement was operational. If the DUP abstain on a VoNC, I reckon the Tories win 315-312 if everyone turns up, the Dep Speakers don't vote, everyone votes according to party whip, the (other) opposition parties all vote against, the MPs who are suspended from or resigned their whip vote with their parent party, and Sinn Fein stay away. Not all of those are safe assumptions and three votes in over 600 is extremely tight. Obviously, if the DUP vote against, it's game over.

    However, the timetable for a GE would be horrible. I reckon it'd look something like:

    Today: cabinet signs of text of deal.
    25 Nov: EU summit signs off deal.
    27 Nov: HoC votes down deal.
    29 Nov: HoC passes VoNC in govt.
    13 Dec: Two-week period lapses; no new govt. Proclamation of election delayed until new Year. Merry Christmas.
    Early Jan: parliament dissolved
    31 Jan: General election
    You missed one for Nov 27th - EU Court to decide if Brexit is reversible
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    El_Capitano said:

    Theo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    This is so stupid. The Conservatives have collapsed in London because of huge demographic change and people not being able to afford homes and families. Do you know what drives that? Vast uncontrollable immigration.
    Oh, come on.

    Immigration is believed to have put house prices up by 21% in the last 25 years. Sure.

    Except that house prices have actually increased by 320% in this period. So immigration is a minor factor.

    And looking into the future: "In 2008, Professor Stephen Nickell, then-head of the NHPAU, said that with projected housebuilding and immigration rates, the average house price would rise from 7 times the average income, to 10 times the average income over the period 2006 to 2026. However, if net migration was reduced to zero, the average house price would only increase to nine times the average income over the same period."

    Well, that's ok then. If a house is only nine times the average income, I'll buy two.

    https://fullfact.org/immigration/have-house-prices-risen-because-immigrants/
    Sure, if you ignore inflation. If you look in nominal terms, of course rising incomes and inflation causes most if the leap. The point is immigration is the driving factor in house prices surging ABOVE income growth.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,297
    NickPalmer said:

    TOPPING said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Relevant piece by PBer:

    https://labourlist.org/2018/11/are-there-40-labour-mps-ready-to-save-mays-brexit-deal/

    Nice piece, Nick. I agree (what do I know about the inner workings of a Labour MP's mind...) and we discussed this this morning; it's presumably the job of the opposition to oppose.

    How would you have voted, and why?
    Well, to be fair I'd read the thing first - yes, 500 pages or whatever. But I'd expect to vote no. I flatly do not believe that the alternative is chaos. I don't care about the Irish Sea stuff, but it's solved by permanent customs union anyway. Essentially I see the deal as a tactical patchwork aimed at Tory MPs, and not worth saving.

    But I'm a 2nd vote man.
    Thanks.

    Interesting about a second vote, I really don't think it would be won easily if at all by Remain. Brits can be stubborn at times and I believe that would be one of those times. If they had nothing to lose and hence voted Leave the first time, I don't see how they would all of a sudden (two years later) have something now to lose and side with the global elite this time.

    But that's another discussion...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,212
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    El_Capitano said:

    Theo said:

    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    This is so stupid. The Conservatives have collapsed in London because of huge demographic change and people not being able to afford homes and families. Do you know what drives that? Vast uncontrollable immigration.
    Oh, come on.

    Immigration is believed to have put house prices up by 21% in the last 25 years. Sure.

    Except that house prices have actually increased by 320% in this period. So immigration is a minor factor.

    And looking into the future: "In 2008, Professor Stephen Nickell, then-head of the NHPAU, said that with projected housebuilding and immigration rates, the average house price would rise from 7 times the average income, to 10 times the average income over the period 2006 to 2026. However, if net migration was reduced to zero, the average house price would only increase to nine times the average income over the same period."

    Well, that's ok then. If a house is only nine times the average income, I'll buy two.

    https://fullfact.org/immigration/have-house-prices-risen-because-immigrants/
    https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

    Check the graph on the right - real house prices peaked in 2007. We seem to be in a period now of nominal increase but adjusted for inflation decline.
    Of course, it's a different story in different parts of the country.

    Interesting example of the nonsense around my way. This from my road:

    https://tinyurl.com/yb8kbj7f

    Originally listed at £635,000. Now down to £574,950.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    edited November 2018
    numbertwelve said:

    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    Where do all the Tory voters go?

    To LAB? There’s still a lot of fear of Uncle Jez.

    To LD? Perhaps the remainian rump might, I guess, but I can’t see hordes moving that way,

    To UKIP? In their current state?!

    They’re currently tied or just ahead in the polls. I’m not in any doubt that they could have a bad election but suggesting absolute decimation is a bit hyperbolic at this stage.
    There will always be 30%+ voting for the right-of-centre, simply because that's what that proportion of the electorate believes. It need not necessarily always be the Conservative party which benefits from that support but there has to be a viable alternative (or alternatives) for it not to be.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1062707286056071168
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    GIN1138 said:

    timmo said:

    Also heard today that CCHQ fear if an election were to come about the Tories could go down to as low as 4 seats in London

    I've got a feeling we'll see a SLAB-type fate awaiting whatever ruins of the Conservative Party is left from this cluster **** across England whenever the next election is held...
    Unlikely. Who would replace them?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1062708552291229697
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