politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of pol
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Don't like that graph, thought I would have learned my lesson from Brexit and Trump doing exactly the same, but alas no.
Lesson learned now: Don't bet large amounts at short odds-on.0 -
Alastair - when, I think, Yougiv predicted a result very close to this one, didn't you say it was close to your ideal result?AlastairMeeks said:We now have a coalition government between the Conservatives and the Natural Law Party, led by a Prime Minister who is seeking, by means of yogic flying, to levitate above her government without any support other than thin air.
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There were some on here (Alastair Meeks especially) who didn't dismiss out of hand that You Gov model. I nearly took the 25-1 on Labour gaining Canterbury and I'm annoyed that I didn't.SimonStClare said:Evening all. – Another GE where the majority of pollsters and punters called it wrong, no wonder there was a dramatic movement when the exit poll was released. Oh, and whole narrative that dominated PB for the past few weeks, total bollox.
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It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).
Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement.
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Agree a national programme and a national Brexit strategy. Something for everyone. Got to be better than government by DUP0
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How many votes/seats do you think the student fees proposal won for Labour? Every year that passes there will be more and more voters that would benefit.
Of course the bill would be much greater and someone would have to pay for it but mentioning that doesn't seem popular at the ballot box.0 -
Which means if the actual campaigns don't know what is happening, the experts don't know what is happening and the pollster don't know what is happening elections are going to be even harder to predict and political campaigns will be harder to plan.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, it does look very much like that. Information I got from someone working on the national campaign confirmed that they thought they were in for a bad night.another_richard said:The funny thing is I think Labour missed the Corbocharge as well.
The world has got even more unpredictable.0 -
Power being exerted over May publicly.
https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/8731767434184949760 -
She has to go in the next 10 days
She can't reshuffle her own cabinet; what the hell is going to happen in Brussels?
"Can we"
"No"
"What about"
"No"0 -
One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.
Now, I'm not one to claim that the current solution to student fees is the right one. It's an issue that needa addressing. Forone, I think universities are taking the piss rather with what they actually give you for £9,000: I'd say it could be done at a fraction of the cost. But I'm slightly worried about the effect on democracy of uncosted-sweetie-giveaways ono this scale.0 -
But provided one believed the exit poll, there was ample time (2-3 hours!) to bet accordingly before the markets caught up. Similar to the situations with Brexit and Trump.SimonStClare said:Evening all. – Another GE where the majority of pollsters and punters called it wrong, no wonder there was a dramatic movement when the exit poll was released. Oh, and whole narrative that dominated PB for the past few weeks, total bollox.
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@Lord_Sugar: Important thing is Brexit.Tory and Labour should form exit task force with same objectives. Priority get that done before arguing politics0
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Bit of a red herring. The electorate in NI have been making it clear for a while they are only interested in their side crushing the other side. Five seats held by the GFA architect parties were lost to the 'who can wave their respective flags most aggressively' parties.dyedwoolie said:Does she really believe pushing on with Brexit hamstrung is more important than the integrity of the peace settlement in Northern Ireland?!
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I didn't intend to but I got a bit carried away and before I knew it I had £200 worth of bets. And then the polls turned. I went into full on panic mode on the night of the 20 May and started betting on Labour. Thank God I did.Torby_Fennel said:It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).
Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement.0 -
I was thinking the same earlier today.AndyJS said:Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.
I would add Macron to that list, people focus on Le Pen but Hollande didn't even run again and Macron is almost as much a rejection of the status quo as Le Pen would have been.
Disruption is becoming as important to unhappy electorates as party politics. Given a choice an awful lot of people will lump for the candidate or party that can upset the apple cart. Which bodes ill for a lot of other governments elsewhere.0 -
And Crewe lost by 49, Kensington lost by 30 if reports are right. Another 200 votes their way would have got to 326dyedwoolie said:I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme0 -
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Does she want to be the one that lit the blue touch paper?Lucian_Fletcher said:
Bit of a red herring. The electorate in NI have been making it clear for a while they are only interested in their side crushing the other side. Five seats held by the GFA architect parties were lost to the 'who can wave their respective flags most aggressively' parties.dyedwoolie said:Does she really believe pushing on with Brexit hamstrung is more important than the integrity of the peace settlement in Northern Ireland?!
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It will be interesting to see if this election is an inflection point in the YouGov Brexit right/wrong tracker. What effect would a shift to 'wrong' have on the political climate?0
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1000 switchers would have got her a Cameron majority. 1500 switchers a 20 seat cushionAR404 said:
And Crewe lost by 49, Kensington lost by 30 if reports are right. Another 200 votes their way would have got to 326dyedwoolie said:I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme0 -
I wonder if you could have negative bids? Vote for us and that lot will get it in the neck.Cookie said:One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.
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Tories should go for a proper graduate tax, lance the boil and bring in more money.paulyork64 said:How many votes/seats do you think the student fees proposal won for Labour? Every year that passes there will be more and more voters that would benefit.
Of course the bill would be much greater and someone would have to pay for it but mentioning that doesn't seem popular at the ballot box.0 -
Lots of little bets for fun that totals no more than what you are prepared to lose is the formula I shall stick with in future. I don’t think I could handle the trauma of the spread marketTorby_Fennel said:It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).
Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement. 0 -
I lost a couple of hundred unfortunately, but that's just how it goes sometimes.Torby_Fennel said:It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).
Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement.0 -
@ProfChalmers: Called an election to boost your standing in European negotiations? Not the headline you want in a German paper of… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/8732365025952030720
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I think it was Jonathon, on here, who said a while ago that 'A nation that can Brexit can Corbyn' (my paraphrase). Pity I thought. And we very nearly did Corbyn.FattyBolger said:
No, I dont think so. I just thought you made a first class point,AndyJS said:
Did you write something similar on here the other day? Someone did but I can't remember who it was.FattyBolger said:
Bingo! In a nutshell.AndyJS said:Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.
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DYOR, but, if the figures on the BBC website are correct, according to my calculations the Betfair Labour vote share market is going to settle at 40.00% (once Kensington is factored in). Note that the rules specify 2 decimal places. Available at around 1.25.0
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We did. McDonnell did quite well with that approach.glw said:
I wonder if you could have negative bids? Vote for us and that lot will get it in the neck.Cookie said:One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.
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Three Quidders, Boaty McBoatface tooAndyJS said:Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.
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Pithy not pity. Bloody tablets.0
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Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.0
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glw said:
By the same token if you vote to make a certain cohort £50,000 worse off they'll take revenge in droves.Cookie said:One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.
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Give them something new to enthuse over. Genuine opening for someone with vision.glw said:
If this is the new norm then politics and government will become damn near impossible.Fat_Steve said:I think it was Jonathon, on here, who said a while ago that 'A nation that can Brexit can Corbyn' (my paraphrase). Pity I thought. And we very nearly did Corbyn.
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Bassetlaw was the only bet I placed on Labour - and that was purely because it's the constituency I grew up in. Otherwise my only winner would have been Bath.tlg86 said:
I didn't intend to but I got a bit carried away and before I knew it I had £200 worth of bets. And then the polls turned. I went into full on panic mode on the night of the 20 May and started betting on Labour. Thank God I did.Torby_Fennel said:It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).
Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement.
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Yes I suppose he did.Richard_Nabavi said:
We did. McDonnell did quite well with that approach.glw said:
I wonder if you could have negative bids? Vote for us and that lot will get it in the neck.Cookie said:One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.
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I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.
'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.0 -
An increasingly polarised politics with voters alternately punishing one another, and quite happy to vote for candidates promising the maximum disruption.NottingHiller said:By the same token if you vote to make a certain cohort £50,000 worse off they'll take revenge in droves.
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My only winner was also Bath.Torby_Fennel said:
Bassetlaw was the only bet I placed on Labour - and that was purely because it's the constituency I grew up in. Otherwise my only winner would have been Bath.tlg86 said:
I didn't intend to but I got a bit carried away and before I knew it I had £200 worth of bets. And then the polls turned. I went into full on panic mode on the night of the 20 May and started betting on Labour. Thank God I did.Torby_Fennel said:It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).
Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement.
Managed to get a few quid on NOM during the bed-wetting phase, which turned out not to be temporary affliction only of the mind, but the actual reality.0 -
The trouble is how can you do the vision thing when voters will boot you out and vote for a total moonbat if you don't deliver results immediately?dyedwoolie said:Give them something new to enthuse over. Genuine opening for someone with vision.
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I had Bath too. Bassetlaw was a good shout too. My constituency bets certainly added to the evening so I'll probably do it again whenever the next election is.Torby_Fennel said:
Bassetlaw was the only bet I placed on Labour - and that was purely because it's the constituency I grew up in. Otherwise my only winner would have been Bath.tlg86 said:
I didn't intend to but I got a bit carried away and before I knew it I had £200 worth of bets. And then the polls turned. I went into full on panic mode on the night of the 20 May and started betting on Labour. Thank God I did.Torby_Fennel said:It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).
Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement.0 -
This is why we won't have another election for several years; Labour are about to shoot ahead in the polls and will stay there until May is gone.Roger said:I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.
'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.0 -
Indeed. See my comment on last thread about a typical West Mids office.JackW said:Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.
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May is now powerless in her own cabinet. A puppet Prime Minister.0
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39.99 touch wood as on 35.00 to 39.99 at 25-1 with Betsafe - sorry linked to Lad seat percentage on earlier comment - still getting the hang of thisJackW said:Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.
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Oh absolutely Chris, we’ve seen it on a few occasions and it’s certainly dug a few punters out of a hole. Not much help tho for those of us that use the high street bookie.Chris said:
But provided one believed the exit poll, there was ample time (2-3 hours!) to bet accordingly before the markets caught up. Similar to the situations with Brexit and Trump.SimonStClare said:Evening all. – Another GE where the majority of pollsters and punters called it wrong, no wonder there was a dramatic movement when the exit poll was released. Oh, and whole narrative that dominated PB for the past few weeks, total bollox.
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Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?
;-)0 -
The BBC are not alone.Roger said:I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.
'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.
This is a catastrophic electoral failure of epic proportions made entirely in Downing Street and the buck stops with the PM.0 -
Seconded. @TheScreamingEagles would love to hear your views on this, especially wrt to any outsiders.RobinWiggs said:Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?
;-)0 -
I think that Alex has a few other part-time jobs at the moment. He has his radio show on LBC and also has at least 2 weekly column in the papers in Scotland. I believe that he was getting paid more them than he got as an MP.TudorRose said:
A brief moment of fleeting cheer. And I was pleased to see the new MP immediately paid a gracious tribute to Salmond in his acceptance speech. I wonder what AS will do now?KentRising said:
Who was up for Salmond?Scrapheap_as_was said:RUTH.
SavIour of the Tories, nation and my wallet. And 2 memorable and cheering defeats of you know who...
Love it!
Longer term it is hard not to see him try to get back to Holyrood 2021 unless there is a GE before then and he has a good chance of winning back a seat in the NE.0 -
Any polls due out this evening?RoyalBlue said:
This is why we won't have another election for several years; Labour are about to shoot ahead in the polls and will stay there until May is gone.Roger said:I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.
'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.0 -
The annoying thing was that the exit poll was close enough to a majority (more Tory seats than the 2015 exit poll) to want to leave the majority bets to play out. By the time the majority definitely wasn't on it was 1/8 or thereabouts on NOM and would have needed a small fortune to go back to break even. I'm about £700 down todaySimonStClare said:
Oh absolutely Chris, we’ve seen it on a few occasions and it’s certainly dug a few punters out of a hole. Not much help tho for those of us that use the high street bookie.Chris said:
But provided one believed the exit poll, there was ample time (2-3 hours!) to bet accordingly before the markets caught up. Similar to the situations with Brexit and Trump.SimonStClare said:Evening all. – Another GE where the majority of pollsters and punters called it wrong, no wonder there was a dramatic movement when the exit poll was released. Oh, and whole narrative that dominated PB for the past few weeks, total bollox.
Tory performance in Scotland saved it from being four figures though, so every cloud... 0 -
Lay the favourite.RobinWiggs said:Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?
;-)
*goes to check Betfair*
Boris is the favourite.
Really lay the favourite.0 -
Will only pay attention to YouGov's model from now on.SandyRentool said:
Any polls due out this evening?RoyalBlue said:
This is why we won't have another election for several years; Labour are about to shoot ahead in the polls and will stay there until May is gone.Roger said:I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.
'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.0 -
Dr Wollaston.RobinWiggs said:Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?
;-)0 -
C4 getting stuck in as well - no sign of Crick as yet - he'll no doubt be off investigating the DUP !JackW said:
The BBC are not alone.Roger said:I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.
'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.
This is a catastrophic electoral failure of epic proportions made entirely in Downing Street and the buck stops with the PM.0 -
That works the other way as well eg Richmond.AR404 said:
And Crewe lost by 49, Kensington lost by 30 if reports are right. Another 200 votes their way would have got to 326dyedwoolie said:I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme0 -
Johnny Mercer. A normal pragmatic guy who commanded a strong personal result in Plymouth against the Labour tide. But this is just me.MaxPB said:
Seconded. @TheScreamingEagles would love to hear your views on this, especially wrt to any outsiders.RobinWiggs said:Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?
;-)0 -
This story should get another airing:calum said:
C4 getting stuck in as well - no sign of Crick as yet - he'll no doubt be off investigating the DUP !JackW said:
The BBC are not alone.Roger said:I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.
'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.
This is a catastrophic electoral failure of epic proportions made entirely in Downing Street and the buck stops with the PM.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/dup-brexit-campaign0 -
Yes - not ducking testing confrontations with voters is one of the few things which Corbyn and Macron have in common.JackW said:Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.
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And who is pulling the strings?SandyRentool said:May is now powerless in her own cabinet. A puppet Prime Minister.
@BBCPhilipSim: Ruth Davidson says she asked Theresa May for "categoric assurance" there would be no impact on LGBTI rights as a result of any deal with DUP0 -
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You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
You can't do public service on the cheap.
You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you0 -
Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.0 -
They did increase votes and vote share too....dyedwoolie said:You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
You can't do public service on the cheap.
You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you0 -
The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing
Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.0 -
Strategically they should go into opposition to the rainbow. They aren't that clever.HaroldO said:Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.0 -
last time they said £2billion.dyedwoolie said:How much is it going to cost us for the DUP to approve the budget?
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I wonder if TM even knew about their LGBTI stance - good on Ruth for pulling no punchesScott_P said:
And who is pulling the strings?SandyRentool said:May is now powerless in her own cabinet. A puppet Prime Minister.
@BBCPhilipSim: Ruth Davidson says she asked Theresa May for "categoric assurance" there would be no impact on LGBTI rights as a result of any deal with DUP
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/8731745334271426560 -
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3.3 on Boris, that's way too short.ThreeQuidder said:
Lay the favourite.RobinWiggs said:Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?
;-)
*goes to check Betfair*
Boris is the favourite.
Really lay the favourite.
Second fav is Ruth Davidson at 6.6 - that's a lay too, she isn't an MP.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.1255749630 -
I think it's clear whom is building a power base, there are a number of like minded women (and men) kicking around the party who are being vocal about May's failure.Scott_P said:
And who is pulling the strings?SandyRentool said:May is now powerless in her own cabinet. A puppet Prime Minister.
@BBCPhilipSim: Ruth Davidson says she asked Theresa May for "categoric assurance" there would be no impact on LGBTI rights as a result of any deal with DUP0 -
Richmond was annoying. The difference between a decent betting night and an excellent one.kjh said:
That works the other way as well eg Richmond.AR404 said:
And Crewe lost by 49, Kensington lost by 30 if reports are right. Another 200 votes their way would have got to 326dyedwoolie said:I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme0 -
Good post dyed....dyedwoolie said:You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
You can't do public service on the cheap.
You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you
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This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"Alistair said:The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing
Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.
A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."0 -
Transitory Brexiteers. Gone by the next election. The Tory strategy should always be (if they want my impartial advice;)) secure the SE SW East, let the tide flow up from there.HaroldO said:
They did increase votes and vote share too....dyedwoolie said:You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
You can't do public service on the cheap.
You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you0 -
They want to hold onto power even though they are a vacuum of ideas currently.dyedwoolie said:
Strategically they should go into opposition to the rainbow. They aren't that clever.HaroldO said:Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.0 -
Not a fan of theirs to say the least, but In terms of pork, the DUP are likely a cheaper deal for the country than the Lib Dems...nunu said:
last time they said £2billion.dyedwoolie said:How much is it going to cost us for the DUP to approve the budget?
Handy that their base is by definition highly geographically concentrated, and they are unlikely to have grand designs for freebies for English voters.0 -
Nigelb said:
Yes - not ducking testing confrontations with voters is one of the few things which Corbyn and Macron have in common.JackW said:Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.
That is why the Tory party desperately needed a leadership election rather than a coronation...May's poor campaigning would have been discovered much earlier....0 -
But they've still got their student debts and rented rooms.Alistair said:The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing
Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.
While I never had any student debts and own a house.
So who should be laughing now ?
Seriously though, some of us have been warning about inter-generational unfairness for years.0 -
I reckon Boris would've got a majority. Media is all that mattersSandpit said:
3.3 on Boris, that's way too short.ThreeQuidder said:
Lay the favourite.RobinWiggs said:Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?
;-)
*goes to check Betfair*
Boris is the favourite.
Really lay the favourite.
Second fav is Ruth Davidson at 6.6 - that's a lay too, she isn't an MP.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.1255749630 -
Again, this wasn't possible unless they were going to commit to abstaining on a Corbyn Queen's Speech. Which would have been, as Sir Humphrey might have put it, courageous.HaroldO said:
They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn0 -
Get used to seeing that picture of that DUP leadership bod in Ulster Resistance clobber again and again.
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The difference with Jezza was stark. May avoided any unscripted moments like the plague. You felt she was only one contact from a real voter from disaster. Put starkly she was a lousy campaigner and the avoidance of the debate played very badlyNigelb said:
Yes - not ducking testing confrontations with voters is one of the few things which Corbyn and Macron have in common.JackW said:Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.
In contrast Corbyn reveled in the contest. He has after all been campaigning and public speaking for lost causes for decades. Jezza appeared authentic even if many voters had misgivings about what he said.
Jezza offered hope and May just hoped.0 -
There was a bunch of students and Momentum types protesting outside Parliament earlier, saying that the party that got 261 seats "won" and the party that got 318 seats "lost" so Corbyn should be PM.isam said:
This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"Alistair said:The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing
Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.
A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."
They either don't understand maths or don't understand democracy.0 -
Seriously, hooking up with the DUP is going to go down as a worse mistake than calling the election in the first place.0
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NottingHiller said:
Indeedglw said:
By the same token if you vote to make a certain cohort £50,000 worse off they'll take revenge in droves.Cookie said:One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.
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Possibly, possibly not. Either way, it isn't all bad news for them and they should remember that. I mean there is a heck of a lot of bad news, but there are some nuggets of good in there too.dyedwoolie said:
Transitory Brexiteers. Gone by the next election. The Tory strategy should always be (if they want my impartial advice;)) secure the SE SW East, let the tide flow up from there.HaroldO said:
They did increase votes and vote share too....dyedwoolie said:You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
You can't do public service on the cheap.
You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you
The first is that the Cameroons are shown in a much better light.0 -
Which will cost them heavily and not even in the medium term. They are trapped and on a hiding to nothing. There is no way they can make this situation work. It's amusing.HaroldO said:
They want to hold onto power even though they are a vacuum of ideas currently.dyedwoolie said:
Strategically they should go into opposition to the rainbow. They aren't that clever.HaroldO said:Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.0 -
Obviously this has been a very bad result for May and the Tories. But I think us political obsessives shouldn't assume that the general public will appreciate the nuance of what's happened. My mum was perplexed at why Jezza was so happy. I notice too that the Prince of Darkness wasn't exactly glowing in his assessment of Labour's position.isam said:
This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"Alistair said:The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing
Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.
A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."0 -
They are the racist uncle who hates poofs that ruins Christmas for you every yearAlistair said:Seriously, hooking up with the DUP is going to go down as a worse mistake than calling the election in the first place.
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I think the constant availability of money for vanity projects was damaging.dyedwoolie said:You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
You can't do public service on the cheap.
You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you
Leaders are meant to lead by example yet Cameron and Osborne and now May would never let their own pet projects go unfunded.0 -
We are more or less where we were in 2010 except the Lib Dems wont prop the Tories up nowtlg86 said:
Obviously this has been a very bad result for May and the Tories. But I think us political obsessives shouldn't assume that the general public will appreciate the nuance of what's happened. My mum was perplexed at why Jezza was so happy. I notice too that the Prince of Darkness wasn't exactly glowing in his assessment of Labour's position.isam said:
This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"Alistair said:The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing
Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.
A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."0 -
I'm not so sure about that. What should really worry the Tories is, what if May actually did okay - she won Mansfield FFS! How many other Tories could have got that? The more I think about this the more I think the Tories are completely f*****.isam said:
I reckon Boris would've got a majority. Media is all that mattersSandpit said:
3.3 on Boris, that's way too short.ThreeQuidder said:
Lay the favourite.RobinWiggs said:Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?
;-)
*goes to check Betfair*
Boris is the favourite.
Really lay the favourite.
Second fav is Ruth Davidson at 6.6 - that's a lay too, she isn't an MP.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.1255749630 -
To many Tories, myself included, last night felt like a landslide defeat where we remain in office.isam said:
This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"Alistair said:The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing
Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.
A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."0 -
But it would mean publicly forcing Corbyn to refuse....if he would of course. A big gamble.ThreeQuidder said:
Again, this wasn't possible unless they were going to commit to abstaining on a Corbyn Queen's Speech. Which would have been, as Sir Humphrey might have put it, courageous.HaroldO said:
They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn0 -
They don't celebrate Christmas.dyedwoolie said:
They are the racist uncle who hates poofs that ruins Christmas for you every yearAlistair said:Seriously, hooking up with the DUP is going to go down as a worse mistake than calling the election in the first place.
0 -
It is probable that we've got to experience a Labour/Corbyn government and all the disasters contained there-in before the Conservatives can get back in the game.tlg86 said:
I'm not so sure about that. What should really worry the Tories is, what if May actually did okay - she won Mansfield FFS! How many other Tories could have got that? The more I think about this the more I think the Tories are completely f*****.isam said:
I reckon Boris would've got a majority. Media is all that mattersSandpit said:
3.3 on Boris, that's way too short.ThreeQuidder said:
Lay the favourite.RobinWiggs said:Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?
;-)
*goes to check Betfair*
Boris is the favourite.
Really lay the favourite.
Second fav is Ruth Davidson at 6.6 - that's a lay too, she isn't an MP.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.1255749630 -
I wonder if fox hunting will make it to the queens speech...titter.....dyedwoolie said:
Which will cost them heavily and not even in the medium term. They are trapped and on a hiding to nothing. There is no way they can make this situation work. It's amusing.HaroldO said:
They want to hold onto power even though they are a vacuum of ideas currently.dyedwoolie said:
Strategically they should go into opposition to the rainbow. They aren't that clever.HaroldO said:Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.
Seriously the queens speech will have the vision of a dead parrot, inspire as much as a dead parrot, and be as useful as a dead parrot....
May has Brexit and sod all else and she's screwed that one up....I almost feel sorry for her...
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