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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of pol

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    Don't like that graph, thought I would have learned my lesson from Brexit and Trump doing exactly the same, but alas no.

    Lesson learned now: Don't bet large amounts at short odds-on.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,024

    We now have a coalition government between the Conservatives and the Natural Law Party, led by a Prime Minister who is seeking, by means of yogic flying, to levitate above her government without any support other than thin air.

    Alastair - when, I think, Yougiv predicted a result very close to this one, didn't you say it was close to your ideal result?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,521

    Evening all. – Another GE where the majority of pollsters and punters called it wrong, no wonder there was a dramatic movement when the exit poll was released. Oh, and whole narrative that dominated PB for the past few weeks, total bollox.

    There were some on here (Alastair Meeks especially) who didn't dismiss out of hand that You Gov model. I nearly took the 25-1 on Labour gaining Canterbury and I'm annoyed that I didn't.
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    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).

    Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement. :D
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Agree a national programme and a national Brexit strategy. Something for everyone. Got to be better than government by DUP
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,466
    How many votes/seats do you think the student fees proposal won for Labour? Every year that passes there will be more and more voters that would benefit.

    Of course the bill would be much greater and someone would have to pay for it but mentioning that doesn't seem popular at the ballot box.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,475

    The funny thing is I think Labour missed the Corbocharge as well.

    Yes, it does look very much like that. Information I got from someone working on the national campaign confirmed that they thought they were in for a bad night.
    Which means if the actual campaigns don't know what is happening, the experts don't know what is happening and the pollster don't know what is happening elections are going to be even harder to predict and political campaigns will be harder to plan.

    The world has got even more unpredictable.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Power being exerted over May publicly.
    https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/873176743418494976
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    She has to go in the next 10 days

    She can't reshuffle her own cabinet; what the hell is going to happen in Brussels?

    "Can we"

    "No"

    "What about"

    "No"
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,024
    One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.

    Now, I'm not one to claim that the current solution to student fees is the right one. It's an issue that needa addressing. Forone, I think universities are taking the piss rather with what they actually give you for £9,000: I'd say it could be done at a fraction of the cost. But I'm slightly worried about the effect on democracy of uncosted-sweetie-giveaways ono this scale.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,448

    Evening all. – Another GE where the majority of pollsters and punters called it wrong, no wonder there was a dramatic movement when the exit poll was released. Oh, and whole narrative that dominated PB for the past few weeks, total bollox.

    But provided one believed the exit poll, there was ample time (2-3 hours!) to bet accordingly before the markets caught up. Similar to the situations with Brexit and Trump.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Lord_Sugar: Important thing is Brexit.Tory and Labour should form exit task force with same objectives. Priority get that done before arguing politics
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    Does she really believe pushing on with Brexit hamstrung is more important than the integrity of the peace settlement in Northern Ireland?!

    Bit of a red herring. The electorate in NI have been making it clear for a while they are only interested in their side crushing the other side. Five seats held by the GFA architect parties were lost to the 'who can wave their respective flags most aggressively' parties.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,521

    It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).

    Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement. :D

    I didn't intend to but I got a bit carried away and before I knew it I had £200 worth of bets. And then the polls turned. I went into full on panic mode on the night of the 20 May and started betting on Labour. Thank God I did.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,600
    AndyJS said:

    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.

    I was thinking the same earlier today.

    I would add Macron to that list, people focus on Le Pen but Hollande didn't even run again and Macron is almost as much a rejection of the status quo as Le Pen would have been.

    Disruption is becoming as important to unhappy electorates as party politics. Given a choice an awful lot of people will lump for the candidate or party that can upset the apple cart. Which bodes ill for a lot of other governments elsewhere.
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    AR404AR404 Posts: 21

    I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
    Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme

    And Crewe lost by 49, Kensington lost by 30 if reports are right. Another 200 votes their way would have got to 326
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017

    Does she really believe pushing on with Brexit hamstrung is more important than the integrity of the peace settlement in Northern Ireland?!

    Bit of a red herring. The electorate in NI have been making it clear for a while they are only interested in their side crushing the other side. Five seats held by the GFA architect parties were lost to the 'who can wave their respective flags most aggressively' parties.
    Does she want to be the one that lit the blue touch paper?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,214
    It will be interesting to see if this election is an inflection point in the YouGov Brexit right/wrong tracker. What effect would a shift to 'wrong' have on the political climate?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AR404 said:

    I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
    Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme

    And Crewe lost by 49, Kensington lost by 30 if reports are right. Another 200 votes their way would have got to 326
    1000 switchers would have got her a Cameron majority. 1500 switchers a 20 seat cushion
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    glwglw Posts: 9,600
    Cookie said:

    One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.

    I wonder if you could have negative bids? Vote for us and that lot will get it in the neck.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,600

    How many votes/seats do you think the student fees proposal won for Labour? Every year that passes there will be more and more voters that would benefit.

    Of course the bill would be much greater and someone would have to pay for it but mentioning that doesn't seem popular at the ballot box.

    Tories should go for a proper graduate tax, lance the boil and bring in more money.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).

    Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement. :D

    Lots of little bets for fun that totals no more than what you are prepared to lose is the formula I shall stick with in future. I don’t think I could handle the trauma of the spread market :lol:
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).

    Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement. :D

    I lost a couple of hundred unfortunately, but that's just how it goes sometimes.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ProfChalmers: Called an election to boost your standing in European negotiations? Not the headline you want in a German paper of… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/873236502595203072
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    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.

    Bingo! In a nutshell.
    Did you write something similar on here the other day? Someone did but I can't remember who it was.
    No, I dont think so. I just thought you made a first class point,
    I think it was Jonathon, on here, who said a while ago that 'A nation that can Brexit can Corbyn' (my paraphrase). Pity I thought. And we very nearly did Corbyn.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    DYOR, but, if the figures on the BBC website are correct, according to my calculations the Betfair Labour vote share market is going to settle at 40.00% (once Kensington is factored in). Note that the rules specify 2 decimal places. Available at around 1.25.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,600
    Fat_Steve said:

    I think it was Jonathon, on here, who said a while ago that 'A nation that can Brexit can Corbyn' (my paraphrase). Pity I thought. And we very nearly did Corbyn.

    If this is the new norm then politics and government will become damn near impossible.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Malcolm Tucker Opines on Tezza's future...

    http://hipsterttoi.tumblr.com/post/51038330891
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    glw said:

    Cookie said:

    One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.

    I wonder if you could have negative bids? Vote for us and that lot will get it in the neck.
    We did. McDonnell did quite well with that approach.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.

    Three Quidders, Boaty McBoatface too
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    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Pithy not pity. Bloody tablets.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.
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    glw said:

    Cookie said:

    One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.

    By the same token if you vote to make a certain cohort £50,000 worse off they'll take revenge in droves.


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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    glw said:

    Fat_Steve said:

    I think it was Jonathon, on here, who said a while ago that 'A nation that can Brexit can Corbyn' (my paraphrase). Pity I thought. And we very nearly did Corbyn.

    If this is the new norm then politics and government will become damn near impossible.

    Give them something new to enthuse over. Genuine opening for someone with vision.
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    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    tlg86 said:

    It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).

    Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement. :D

    I didn't intend to but I got a bit carried away and before I knew it I had £200 worth of bets. And then the polls turned. I went into full on panic mode on the night of the 20 May and started betting on Labour. Thank God I did.
    Bassetlaw was the only bet I placed on Labour - and that was purely because it's the constituency I grew up in. Otherwise my only winner would have been Bath. :)
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    glwglw Posts: 9,600

    glw said:

    Cookie said:

    One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.

    I wonder if you could have negative bids? Vote for us and that lot will get it in the neck.
    We did. McDonnell did quite well with that approach.
    Yes I suppose he did.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,293
    edited June 2017
    I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.

    'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,600

    By the same token if you vote to make a certain cohort £50,000 worse off they'll take revenge in droves.

    An increasingly polarised politics with voters alternately punishing one another, and quite happy to vote for candidates promising the maximum disruption.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,414

    tlg86 said:

    It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).

    Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement. :D

    I didn't intend to but I got a bit carried away and before I knew it I had £200 worth of bets. And then the polls turned. I went into full on panic mode on the night of the 20 May and started betting on Labour. Thank God I did.
    Bassetlaw was the only bet I placed on Labour - and that was purely because it's the constituency I grew up in. Otherwise my only winner would have been Bath. :)
    My only winner was also Bath.

    Managed to get a few quid on NOM during the bed-wetting phase, which turned out not to be temporary affliction only of the mind, but the actual reality.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,600

    Give them something new to enthuse over. Genuine opening for someone with vision.

    The trouble is how can you do the vision thing when voters will boot you out and vote for a total moonbat if you don't deliver results immediately?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,521

    tlg86 said:

    It's very fortunate that I only bet tiny amounts for fun. Of the 15 £2 individual constituency winner bets that I placed at the start of the campaign only two of them were winners (Bassetlaw & Bath).

    Bet £30 in total... lost £21.28 I really wouldn't wish to have been playing with "real" money with such poor judgement. :D

    I didn't intend to but I got a bit carried away and before I knew it I had £200 worth of bets. And then the polls turned. I went into full on panic mode on the night of the 20 May and started betting on Labour. Thank God I did.
    Bassetlaw was the only bet I placed on Labour - and that was purely because it's the constituency I grew up in. Otherwise my only winner would have been Bath. :)
    I had Bath too. Bassetlaw was a good shout too. My constituency bets certainly added to the evening so I'll probably do it again whenever the next election is.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Roger said:

    I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.

    'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.

    This is why we won't have another election for several years; Labour are about to shoot ahead in the polls and will stay there until May is gone.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,414
    JackW said:

    Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.

    Indeed. See my comment on last thread about a typical West Mids office.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,274
    May is now powerless in her own cabinet. A puppet Prime Minister.
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    JMBJMB Posts: 7
    edited June 2017
    JackW said:

    Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.

    39.99 touch wood as on 35.00 to 39.99 at 25-1 with Betsafe - sorry linked to Lad seat percentage on earlier comment - still getting the hang of this
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2017
    Chris said:

    Evening all. – Another GE where the majority of pollsters and punters called it wrong, no wonder there was a dramatic movement when the exit poll was released. Oh, and whole narrative that dominated PB for the past few weeks, total bollox.

    But provided one believed the exit poll, there was ample time (2-3 hours!) to bet accordingly before the markets caught up. Similar to the situations with Brexit and Trump.
    Oh absolutely Chris, we’ve seen it on a few occasions and it’s certainly dug a few punters out of a hole. Not much help tho for those of us that use the high street bookie.
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?

    ;-)
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Roger said:

    I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.

    'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.

    The BBC are not alone.

    This is a catastrophic electoral failure of epic proportions made entirely in Downing Street and the buck stops with the PM.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?

    ;-)

    Seconded. @TheScreamingEagles would love to hear your views on this, especially wrt to any outsiders.
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    SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    TudorRose said:

    RUTH.

    SavIour of the Tories, nation and my wallet. And 2 memorable and cheering defeats of you know who...

    Who was up for Salmond?

    Love it!
    A brief moment of fleeting cheer. And I was pleased to see the new MP immediately paid a gracious tribute to Salmond in his acceptance speech. I wonder what AS will do now?
    I think that Alex has a few other part-time jobs at the moment. He has his radio show on LBC and also has at least 2 weekly column in the papers in Scotland. I believe that he was getting paid more them than he got as an MP.
    Longer term it is hard not to see him try to get back to Holyrood 2021 unless there is a GE before then and he has a good chance of winning back a seat in the NE.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,274
    RoyalBlue said:

    Roger said:

    I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.

    'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.

    This is why we won't have another election for several years; Labour are about to shoot ahead in the polls and will stay there until May is gone.
    Any polls due out this evening?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    edited June 2017

    Chris said:

    Evening all. – Another GE where the majority of pollsters and punters called it wrong, no wonder there was a dramatic movement when the exit poll was released. Oh, and whole narrative that dominated PB for the past few weeks, total bollox.

    But provided one believed the exit poll, there was ample time (2-3 hours!) to bet accordingly before the markets caught up. Similar to the situations with Brexit and Trump.
    Oh absolutely Chris, we’ve seen it on a few occasions and it’s certainly dug a few punters out of a hole. Not much help tho for those of us that use the high street bookie.
    The annoying thing was that the exit poll was close enough to a majority (more Tory seats than the 2015 exit poll) to want to leave the majority bets to play out. By the time the majority definitely wasn't on it was 1/8 or thereabouts on NOM and would have needed a small fortune to go back to break even. I'm about £700 down today :( Tory performance in Scotland saved it from being four figures though, so every cloud...
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?

    ;-)

    Lay the favourite.

    *goes to check Betfair*

    Boris is the favourite.

    Really lay the favourite.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    RoyalBlue said:

    Roger said:

    I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.

    'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.

    This is why we won't have another election for several years; Labour are about to shoot ahead in the polls and will stay there until May is gone.
    Any polls due out this evening?
    Will only pay attention to YouGov's​ model from now on.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,274

    Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?

    ;-)

    Dr Wollaston.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    JackW said:

    Roger said:

    I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.

    'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.

    The BBC are not alone.

    This is a catastrophic electoral failure of epic proportions made entirely in Downing Street and the buck stops with the PM.
    C4 getting stuck in as well - no sign of Crick as yet - he'll no doubt be off investigating the DUP !
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,926
    AR404 said:

    I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
    Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme

    And Crewe lost by 49, Kensington lost by 30 if reports are right. Another 200 votes their way would have got to 326
    That works the other way as well eg Richmond.
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    TypoTypo Posts: 195
    MaxPB said:

    Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?

    ;-)

    Seconded. @TheScreamingEagles would love to hear your views on this, especially wrt to any outsiders.
    Johnny Mercer. A normal pragmatic guy who commanded a strong personal result in Plymouth against the Labour tide. But this is just me.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,214
    calum said:

    JackW said:

    Roger said:

    I don't like kicking a woman when she's down but the BBC are crucifying Mrs May over Brexit.

    'Ten days to go before negotiations start and they don't know what they're doing' say business leaders. If the Tory governments from 2015 till now aren't the worst since records began then I can't think which were.

    The BBC are not alone.

    This is a catastrophic electoral failure of epic proportions made entirely in Downing Street and the buck stops with the PM.
    C4 getting stuck in as well - no sign of Crick as yet - he'll no doubt be off investigating the DUP !
    This story should get another airing:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/dup-brexit-campaign
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,598
    JackW said:

    Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.

    Yes - not ducking testing confrontations with voters is one of the few things which Corbyn and Macron have in common.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    May is now powerless in her own cabinet. A puppet Prime Minister.

    And who is pulling the strings?

    @BBCPhilipSim: Ruth Davidson says she asked Theresa May for "categoric assurance" there would be no impact on LGBTI rights as a result of any deal with DUP
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
    You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
    You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
    You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
    You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
    You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
    You can't do public service on the cheap.
    You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
    You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
    They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
    You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
    You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
    You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
    You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
    You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
    You can't do public service on the cheap.
    You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
    You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you

    They did increase votes and vote share too....
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing

    Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017
    HaroldO said:

    Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
    They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.

    Strategically they should go into opposition to the rainbow. They aren't that clever.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    How much is it going to cost us for the DUP to approve the budget?

    last time they said £2billion.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Scott_P said:

    May is now powerless in her own cabinet. A puppet Prime Minister.

    And who is pulling the strings?

    @BBCPhilipSim: Ruth Davidson says she asked Theresa May for "categoric assurance" there would be no impact on LGBTI rights as a result of any deal with DUP
    I wonder if TM even knew about their LGBTI stance - good on Ruth for pulling no punches
    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/873174533427142656
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928

    Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?

    ;-)

    Lay the favourite.

    *goes to check Betfair*

    Boris is the favourite.

    Really lay the favourite.
    3.3 on Boris, that's way too short.

    Second fav is Ruth Davidson at 6.6 - that's a lay too, she isn't an MP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125574963
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Scott_P said:

    May is now powerless in her own cabinet. A puppet Prime Minister.

    And who is pulling the strings?

    @BBCPhilipSim: Ruth Davidson says she asked Theresa May for "categoric assurance" there would be no impact on LGBTI rights as a result of any deal with DUP
    I think it's clear whom is building a power base, there are a number of like minded women (and men) kicking around the party who are being vocal about May's failure.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    kjh said:

    AR404 said:

    I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
    Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme

    And Crewe lost by 49, Kensington lost by 30 if reports are right. Another 200 votes their way would have got to 326
    That works the other way as well eg Richmond.
    Richmond was annoying. The difference between a decent betting night and an excellent one.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,063

    You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
    You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
    You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
    You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
    You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
    You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
    You can't do public service on the cheap.
    You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
    You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you

    Good post dyed....

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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Alistair said:

    The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing

    Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.

    This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"

    A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    HaroldO said:

    You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
    You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
    You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
    You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
    You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
    You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
    You can't do public service on the cheap.
    You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
    You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you

    They did increase votes and vote share too....
    Transitory Brexiteers. Gone by the next election. The Tory strategy should always be (if they want my impartial advice;)) secure the SE SW East, let the tide flow up from there.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
    They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.

    Strategically they should go into opposition to the rainbow. They aren't that clever.
    They want to hold onto power even though they are a vacuum of ideas currently.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    nunu said:

    How much is it going to cost us for the DUP to approve the budget?

    last time they said £2billion.
    Not a fan of theirs to say the least, but In terms of pork, the DUP are likely a cheaper deal for the country than the Lib Dems...

    Handy that their base is by definition highly geographically concentrated, and they are unlikely to have grand designs for freebies for English voters.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,063
    Nigelb said:

    JackW said:

    Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.

    Yes - not ducking testing confrontations with voters is one of the few things which Corbyn and Macron have in common.


    That is why the Tory party desperately needed a leadership election rather than a coronation...May's poor campaigning would have been discovered much earlier....
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,475
    Alistair said:

    The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing

    Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.

    But they've still got their student debts and rented rooms.

    While I never had any student debts and own a house.

    So who should be laughing now ?

    :wink:

    Seriously though, some of us have been warning about inter-generational unfairness for years.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sandpit said:

    Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?

    ;-)

    Lay the favourite.

    *goes to check Betfair*

    Boris is the favourite.

    Really lay the favourite.
    3.3 on Boris, that's way too short.

    Second fav is Ruth Davidson at 6.6 - that's a lay too, she isn't an MP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125574963
    I reckon Boris would've got a majority. Media is all that matters
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited June 2017
    HaroldO said:


    They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn

    Again, this wasn't possible unless they were going to commit to abstaining on a Corbyn Queen's Speech. Which would have been, as Sir Humphrey might have put it, courageous.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Get used to seeing that picture of that DUP leadership bod in Ulster Resistance clobber again and again.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Nigelb said:

    JackW said:

    Worthy to note how many voters and political commentators referenced the Prime Minister avoiding a debate and contact with the public wherever possible.

    Yes - not ducking testing confrontations with voters is one of the few things which Corbyn and Macron have in common.

    The difference with Jezza was stark. May avoided any unscripted moments like the plague. You felt she was only one contact from a real voter from disaster. Put starkly she was a lousy campaigner and the avoidance of the debate played very badly

    In contrast Corbyn reveled in the contest. He has after all been campaigning and public speaking for lost causes for decades. Jezza appeared authentic even if many voters had misgivings about what he said.

    Jezza offered hope and May just hoped.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,928
    edited June 2017
    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing

    Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.

    This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"

    A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."
    There was a bunch of students and Momentum types protesting outside Parliament earlier, saying that the party that got 261 seats "won" and the party that got 318 seats "lost" so Corbyn should be PM.

    They either don't understand maths or don't understand democracy.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Seriously, hooking up with the DUP is going to go down as a worse mistake than calling the election in the first place.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 12,024

    glw said:

    Cookie said:

    One element of this is that it demonstrates that if you promise to make a certain cohort around £50,000 better off almost instantly, they will vote for you in hitherto-unimagined droves. Pretty much every student seat is now Labour.

    By the same token if you vote to make a certain cohort £50,000 worse off they'll take revenge in droves.


    Indeed
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
    You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
    You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
    You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
    You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
    You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
    You can't do public service on the cheap.
    You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
    You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you

    They did increase votes and vote share too....
    Transitory Brexiteers. Gone by the next election. The Tory strategy should always be (if they want my impartial advice;)) secure the SE SW East, let the tide flow up from there.
    Possibly, possibly not. Either way, it isn't all bad news for them and they should remember that. I mean there is a heck of a lot of bad news, but there are some nuggets of good in there too.
    The first is that the Cameroons are shown in a much better light.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
    They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.

    Strategically they should go into opposition to the rainbow. They aren't that clever.
    They want to hold onto power even though they are a vacuum of ideas currently.
    Which will cost them heavily and not even in the medium term. They are trapped and on a hiding to nothing. There is no way they can make this situation work. It's amusing.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,521
    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing

    Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.

    This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"

    A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."
    Obviously this has been a very bad result for May and the Tories. But I think us political obsessives shouldn't assume that the general public will appreciate the nuance of what's happened. My mum was perplexed at why Jezza was so happy. I notice too that the Prince of Darkness wasn't exactly glowing in his assessment of Labour's position.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Alistair said:

    Seriously, hooking up with the DUP is going to go down as a worse mistake than calling the election in the first place.

    They are the racist uncle who hates poofs that ruins Christmas for you every year
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,475

    You can't sell 15 years of austerity when you'd promised 5
    You can't sell 20,000 police cuts when we are under seige
    You can't sell public sector pay freezes when you trouser thousands and thousands
    You can't sell mums house after her ten year battle with dementia
    You can't sell hard Brexit to your core remainers
    You can't demonise a man for his associations in the past when you suck up to and arm ISIS sponsoring Saudis.
    You can't do public service on the cheap.
    You can't call the citizens of your capital citizens of nowhere.
    You can't punch your most loyal support group in the face and expect them to love you

    I think the constant availability of money for vanity projects was damaging.

    Leaders are meant to lead by example yet Cameron and Osborne and now May would never let their own pet projects go unfunded.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing

    Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.

    This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"

    A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."
    Obviously this has been a very bad result for May and the Tories. But I think us political obsessives shouldn't assume that the general public will appreciate the nuance of what's happened. My mum was perplexed at why Jezza was so happy. I notice too that the Prince of Darkness wasn't exactly glowing in his assessment of Labour's position.
    We are more or less where we were in 2010 except the Lib Dems wont prop the Tories up now
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,521
    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?

    ;-)

    Lay the favourite.

    *goes to check Betfair*

    Boris is the favourite.

    Really lay the favourite.
    3.3 on Boris, that's way too short.

    Second fav is Ruth Davidson at 6.6 - that's a lay too, she isn't an MP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125574963
    I reckon Boris would've got a majority. Media is all that matters
    I'm not so sure about that. What should really worry the Tories is, what if May actually did okay - she won Mansfield FFS! How many other Tories could have got that? The more I think about this the more I think the Tories are completely f*****.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,294
    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    The amount of derision being heaped on millennial virtue signalling Twitter users seems pretty rum given they just turned out and handed the kind of people who sneer at them a shellacing

    Maybe less sneering and more listening is required.

    This is incredible! I was talking with a mate earlier, who isn't really a political buff, and he was saying "Why is Corbyn giving it the big one? He lost! If Donald Trump phones up and asks to speak to the Prime Minister he gets Theresa May!!"

    A shellacking when you don't win is a new one on me! And I reckon the first time voters who celebrated last night will wake up tmrw thinking "Hang on.. Corbyn isn't PM...."
    To many Tories, myself included, last night felt like a landslide defeat where we remain in office.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:


    They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn

    Again, this wasn't possible unless they were going to commit to abstaining on a Corbyn Queen's Speech. Which would have been, as Sir Humphrey might have put it, courageous.
    But it would mean publicly forcing Corbyn to refuse....if he would of course. A big gamble.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,274

    Alistair said:

    Seriously, hooking up with the DUP is going to go down as a worse mistake than calling the election in the first place.

    They are the racist uncle who hates poofs that ruins Christmas for you every year
    They don't celebrate Christmas.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,191
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Please can we have another "Next Conservative Leader" thread? Preferably identifying the 50/1 outsider who will win it?

    ;-)

    Lay the favourite.

    *goes to check Betfair*

    Boris is the favourite.

    Really lay the favourite.
    3.3 on Boris, that's way too short.

    Second fav is Ruth Davidson at 6.6 - that's a lay too, she isn't an MP.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.125574963
    I reckon Boris would've got a majority. Media is all that matters
    I'm not so sure about that. What should really worry the Tories is, what if May actually did okay - she won Mansfield FFS! How many other Tories could have got that? The more I think about this the more I think the Tories are completely f*****.
    It is probable that we've got to experience a Labour/Corbyn government and all the disasters contained there-in before the Conservatives can get back in the game.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,063

    HaroldO said:

    HaroldO said:

    Going in with the DUP wipes out a lot of hard work moving the Tory image forwards out of the 1970's, it also leaves with beholden to a minority interest party.
    They should have just publicly offered the keys to Corbyn etc, binned May and consolidated their very high vote count and share. Now they are wobbling along, wounded and aimless.

    Strategically they should go into opposition to the rainbow. They aren't that clever.
    They want to hold onto power even though they are a vacuum of ideas currently.
    Which will cost them heavily and not even in the medium term. They are trapped and on a hiding to nothing. There is no way they can make this situation work. It's amusing.
    I wonder if fox hunting will make it to the queens speech...titter.....

    Seriously the queens speech will have the vision of a dead parrot, inspire as much as a dead parrot, and be as useful as a dead parrot....

    May has Brexit and sod all else and she's screwed that one up....I almost feel sorry for her...
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