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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of pol
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of political betting
Above the is the chart from Betdata.io of the final 12 hours of betting on an overall majority.
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The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
Philip must have a word and tell her it's over....
What a night!!
The sad thing is that it's now clear that Leadsom wouldn't have been any more out of her depth than May is.
Typo said:
"Why not Allen? She doesn't mince her words.
I am totally up for a 2010 or even 2015 intake candidate taking over. Renewal renewal renewal. Forget the current cabinet."
Cometh the hour....step forward Rory Stewart and Johnny Mercer. Any others?
FPT: Mr. Borough, disagree. May lost with the social care policy. There was no line to defend, no line to attack Labour's position.
More widely, there was no critique of Labour's tax-and-spend profligacy.
A dire campaign, brightened only by Ruth Davidson's excellent performance.
Cons will have to do a volte-face on either public services spending or Brexit. If they get Boris, he can only do the former or his credibility will be shot (can't say well I was a Remainer before I became an arch Brexiter). He can then hunker down on Brexit with people realising that he is alive to the nuances of all sides of Brexit. Something that Tezza doesn't seem to be.
Other than him? Hammond perhaps, Davis not on your nelly, Fallon lord spare us.
Now, I happen to believe that the Cons needs a Remainer as leader. So that leaves Rudd (or an unknown as yet backbencher). But will the euroloons stand for it? Will for once in their political careers they realise that they didn't win, that there needs to be compromise with the country?
Perhaps not, but one thing is for sure, as was noted above by @maaarsh, they need to be bloody careful or the bastards will destroy the Conservative Party and put Jezza into power at the next available opportunity.
She can't possibly continue...
There is no way the Tories can pass on the leadership to someone else now without another election.
Which is what May should have done last year.
Thing is, as has been endlessly rehearsed on here, all she did was see the opportunity plus assume that it would remain whatever she did or didn't do. That was her flaw.
He's nasty, devious and Machiavellian....
It wasn't a "resounding win" ? No? Really?
If we have to have another election with a new leader then so be it. May's done!
Just seems to me that there is too much instability right now to have a leadership contest and the result of this election when looking at the data about demographics suggests that the Conservatives could lose another election very easily.
A major policy rethink is needed and that takes time, certainly not enough time between now and say another GE later this year.
Just have to somehow get it to work for the good of the country.
She had called for the country to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and the country had listened. By telling her to get rid of a couple of dozen of her own MPs – natural attrition, she reassured herself – and replace them with eight members of the Democratic Unionist party. That would show the EU who was boss.
https://theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-maybot-trapped-first-stage-election-grief-denial
May's sin wasn't being calculating, it was the failure to be calculating. Hubris, arrogance, complacency, trying to wing it and assuming all would be well. Some calculating would've been rather welcome.
SavIour of the Tories, nation and my wallet. And 2 memorable and cheering defeats of you know who...
Looked to me like Graham Brady* rang her up after the lunchtime statement and asked WTF was going on with the 'crisis, what crisis?'** approach. Very odd statement, grovelling to the failed candidates instead of talking about Brexit/government/getting into bed with a bunch of homophobes.
(* Not least as he was on the news 10 mins earlier predicting she'd be 'doing some more broadcasting' later today!)
(** Though I maybe mixing my prime ministerial metaphors... it reminded me more of Ma T on the steps of the Paris embassy)
Betting markets as of Wednesday night imply there’s only about a 15 percent chance of Conservatives failing to win an outright majority.
If you take the polls at face value, however, the chances are surely higher than that. If Labour beats the final polling average by only 1 or 2 percentage points, both sides will start having to sweat out the results from individual constituencies. And if they beat their polls by much more than that, May’s majority is probably toast. If this happens, the adjustments that pollsters made to discount Labour turnout will have proven to be counterproductive, and the lesson for pollsters will be to trust their data instead of making too many presumptions about who is likely to vote. The lesson for May, meanwhile, would be never to call a “snap” election again in a country where public opinion can shift so rapidly.
Love it!
Didn't they tell you a majority of 40-70 an hour before the Exit Poll ?
Another top class piece from AM.
Or they're stupid.
The DUP will exact the fullest measure and a desperate Prime Minister will have to pay the danegeld or fall. The Prime Minister should seek the advice of John Major who in a similar situation refused to sup with the DUP as he realized the greater prize was far, far more important.
Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme
It was their pollster, BMG, which had the Conservatives 13% ahead at the end and Owen Jones was calling for big GOTV efforts in Brentford and Tooting.
While Labour MPs were all defending their own constituencies judging by twitter.
If my theory is true, then Labour could have done even better with a more effective use of its resources.
Certainly the Ealing Central story was but perhaps not the Penistone story.
It can't all have been incumbency.
She cost a number of colleagues their seats, destroyed any prospect of implementing any program beyond Brexit, and massively weakened her room for negotiation over Brexit, while creating huge uncertainty over what might happen next.
And destroyed whatever personal brand she might have with large swathes of the electorate - including many who reluctantly voted for her.
Other than that, a notable success.
...............................
I note Jonathan Powell on the BBC has endorsed my view at 6:21pm.
£3
https://twitter.com/me_stafford/status/873209534885617664