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edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With such a focus on Corbyn’s past with Sinn Féin it is ironic we could have an effective Tory majority thanks to Sinn Féin abstentionism

Close to a majority but no cigar pic.twitter.com/tsftilkvLw

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  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    First!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    46 to go, CON need 37
  • RobinWiggs
    RobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Second like SCON.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
    The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to be
    Agreed. Corbyn thinks he can use lies, bribes, and unicorns to charm a nation, but he's nothing compared to Boris. Time to fight populist fire with populist fire.
    Agree entirely, we have to play Corbyn at his own game, Boris it has to be. Davidson should stay in Scotland where she is clearly doing a fantastic job against the SNP
    Perhaps she could second herself to the English Tories 1 or 2 days a week.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    CORRECTION CON HOLD TEWKESBURY
  • camel
    camel Posts: 815
    edited June 2017
    7th. as in Ruth Davidson heaven

    sixth, as in the sense that has won me far more than following ICM.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MordantMuppetry: BREAKING: Scotland declared an international Panda Sanctuary #GeneralElections2017
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    @MordantMuppetry: BREAKING: Scotland declared an international Panda Sanctuary #GeneralElections2017

    Chortle .... :smiley:
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Tewkesbury is a Con hold, not LD gain.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    RobD said:

    46 to go, CON need 37

    No chance.

    Bring on the DUP!
  • bookseller
    bookseller Posts: 508
    Oxford West and Abingdon - 80%+ turnout - LibDems GAIN from CON - get in you beauty!
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Personally I can't vote for a Tory party led by Boris. Just can't.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    They've said they won't.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    I don't think Theresa May will resign if she can get a deal with the DUP.
  • Dura_Ace
    Dura_Ace Posts: 14,645
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    A LAB+LD+SNP+SF coalition government would have the PB tories covering every piece of exposed skin with fentanyl patches.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    bookseller said:

    Oxford West and Abingdon - 80%+ turnout - LibDems GAIN from CON - get in you beauty!

    What fantastic turnout. Corbyn was right again, give people a real choice and they will turnout. Not as I would wish, but overall turnout must be pretty good.
  • blueblue
    blueblue Posts: 875
    40% of the British public want free stuff and don't give a shiny shit what they have to do to get it. Kinda depressing really.

    Side note: after the best Labour campaign and the worst Tory campaign in history, Labour can still win only about 260 seats in their own right with Corbyn. Since he and his clique will now become a permanent fixture in the Labour party's leadership, is that really the position a party that aspires to government wants to be in?
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Quelle surprise
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Sandpit said:

    I don't think Theresa May will resign if she can get a deal with the DUP.

    Unfortunate timing :p
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    If that happened, we could easily find ourselves in 'A Very British Coup' situation
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think she'll be gone within a few days at most.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Earlier on, I did wonder whether Corbyn would get a majority due to Sinn Fein's entering parliament.

    It's unthinkable before 2016, but may it happen?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @Sandpit....
    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    1 vote in it in Fife NE. SNP likely to ask for 3rd recount.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Loving the tmesis in the @wikiguido tweet.
  • camel
    camel Posts: 815
    The_Apocalypse said:

    @Sandpit....

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    And Rudd hangs in.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Boris is too divisive for a party that now needs 98% loyalty on every vote.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: Holy shit. The BBC is reporting there is one vote between the SNP and the Lib Dems in North East Fife.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    So Brexit negotiations will need to be postponed?
  • chloe
    chloe Posts: 308
    jonny83 said:

    Personally I can't vote for a Tory party led by Boris. Just can't.

    It can't be Boris.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Exit poll looking pretty spot on - Curtice and co outdid themselves from last time, while the pollsters flair (the one that was right was probably a fluke). YouGov's model also very good.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    GB share on course for:

    Con 43.5
    Lab 40.8

    and Con approx 50 seats ahead
  • blueblue
    blueblue Posts: 875
    Dura_Ace said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    A LAB+LD+SNP+SF coalition government would have the PB tories covering every piece of exposed skin with fentanyl patches.
    It's also probably the only thing that could produce that mythical beast, the Tory landslide!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Anyone have the Sheffield Central result ?
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Get George in!
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    JosiasJessop said:

    Earlier on, I did wonder whether Corbyn would get a majority due to Sinn Fein's entering parliament.

    It's unthinkable before 2016, but may it happen?

    Well they are his friends.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    the yougov last poll was 2% before re-allocations of Don't Knows took it to a 7% tory lead. It is a 2% tory lead right now.
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    kle4 said:

    bookseller said:

    Oxford West and Abingdon - 80%+ turnout - LibDems GAIN from CON - get in you beauty!

    What fantastic turnout. Corbyn was right again, give people a real choice and they will turnout. Not as I would wish, but overall turnout must be pretty good.
    "Giving people a choice" was one reason I paid my £3 and voted for Corbyn. (His opponents were another.)

    At least this time people can't complain they didn't have a choice.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Sandpit said:

    I don't think Theresa May will resign if she can get a deal with the DUP.

    Caretaker PM
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Just noticed this result:

    Lanark & Hamilton East:

    SNP 16444
    Con 16178
    Lab 16084
    LD 1214
    UKIP 550
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Maybe one of the decent Tory MPs who have been needlessly lost tonight can get parachuted into Maidenhead as compensation?
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    anyone know what the DUP position is on Single Market, considering tory manifesto ruled out single market?
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    God, I do feel sorry for her. Well, I'd feel more sorry if she hadn't shafted the party with the dementia bomb.
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    As predicted, Amber Rudd's majority is less than Nicholas Wilson's vote.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Get George in!
    I wonder if he wants a peerage?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    The Tories would be taking the absolute p*ss if they elected Boris as leader/PM.
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    Yes, is that a realistic danger at all?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    May must go.

    Con has to go into next GE with new popular leader.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    I've been up for 26 hours ...
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @robertshrimsley: We're about to hear insider accounts from a lot of senior Tory strategists all of whom will turn out to have argued for a different campaign
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Get George in!
    To do what ?

    Increase student fees ?
    Increase house prices ?
    Borrow endless billions for his vanity projects ?

    Please tell us what you expect George Osborne to do.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    MikeL said:

    May must go.

    Con has to go into next GE with new popular leader.

    The question is who, though.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    JosiasJessop said:

    I've been up for 26 hours ...

    it shows.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    JosiasJessop said:

    I've been up for 26 hours ...

    Get some sleep mate - 26 hours is too long to be awake!
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited June 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    Earlier on, I did wonder whether Corbyn would get a majority due to Sinn Fein's entering parliament.

    It's unthinkable before 2016, but may it happen?

    No. It would be toxic for Sinn Fein among their owns supporters.
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Loving the tmesis in the @wikiguido tweet.

    Don't you mean a tm-bloody-esis?
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    numbertwelve said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    God, I do feel sorry for her. Well, I'd feel more sorry if she hadn't shafted the party with the dementia bomb.
    Her acceptance speech was painful to watch.
  • blueblue
    blueblue Posts: 875
    The_Apocalypse said:

    The Tories would be taking the absolute p*ss if they elected Boris as leader/PM.

    Why? Labour's got a total liar and bullshitter as their leader, so why can't we?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What's going on in Southampton? No results yet.
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    Yes, is that a realistic danger at all?
    QTWTAIN. they would still have to swear the oath of allegiance
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited June 2017
    Con hold Preseli Pembroke by 314
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Scott_P said:

    @robertshrimsley: We're about to hear insider accounts from a lot of senior Tory strategists all of whom will turn out to have argued for a different campaign

    Next election I am not going to believe anything the insiders say. They were confident they were doing well.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    Just noticed this result:

    Lanark & Hamilton East:

    SNP 16444
    Con 16178
    Lab 16084
    LD 1214
    UKIP 550

    bloody hell, SNP coming through the middle.
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    Earlier on, I did wonder whether Corbyn would get a majority due to Sinn Fein's entering parliament.

    "I, [insert post-terrorist name here], swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me God."


    Gonna call it unlikely.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    MikeL said:

    Con hold Preseli Pembroke

    Each hold is vital!
  • rpjs
    rpjs Posts: 3,787
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    Yes, is that a realistic danger at all?
    They'll never swear allegiance to the Crown. It'd be like the Pope announcing he's embracing Unitarianism.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    I see the same people who were lauding the will of the people after voting Leave are now attacking them for voting Labour
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    Easy win for Yvette Cooper. Rumours earlier today that she was in trouble wide of the mark.
  • Rexel56
    Rexel56 Posts: 807
    May is unimportant and pays the price for her hubris... the overriding issue is what this means for Brexit...
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    nunu said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just noticed this result:

    Lanark & Hamilton East:

    SNP 16444
    Con 16178
    Lab 16084
    LD 1214
    UKIP 550

    bloody hell, SNP coming through the middle.
    That won't happen next time :p
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Get George in!
    George couldn't be arsed to stand.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @robertshrimsley: We're about to hear insider accounts from a lot of senior Tory strategists all of whom will turn out to have argued for a different campaign

    Next election I am not going to believe anything the insiders say. They were confident they were doing well.
    They were going on polling which turned out to be claptrap.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    So that's the fourth consecutive Tory PM and every one since 1979 to have their Premiership/destroyed by EC/EU affairs
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Any news of Caroline Lucas?
  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    AndyJS said:

    What's going on in Southampton? No results yet.

    There was a recount in Itchen. I hope Royston gets back in.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Tories on 292. Need 34 more out of the last 42
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.

    GAIN!
  • Dura_Ace
    Dura_Ace Posts: 14,645
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    Yes, is that a realistic danger at all?
    He could offer them a referendum on a united Ireland. They'd bite his hand off. #32COUNTYREF
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Con Forecast back UP to 318
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    not_on_fire said:

    I see the same people who were lauding the will of the people after voting Leave are now attacking them for voting Labour

    Really? Which people?
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Imagine if Labour didn't do the coup, Corbyn would be PM now probably!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.

    Kerching
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    39 to go, need 32.
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    NE Fife going to a 3rd recount 1 or 2 votes in it.
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    3rd recount in Fife NE
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So that's the fourth consecutive Tory PM and every one since 1979 to have their Premiership/destroyed by EC/EU affairs

    Hmm, no one forced her to talk about property confiscation.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Tories targetting Leeds East....
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    NE Fife - BBC think LD win by 1 vote. unconfirmed.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.

    Kerching
    Thank fuck.

    Every seat helps.
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    stoke on trent south gain for con
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    The_Apocalypse said:

    The Tories would be taking the absolute p*ss if they elected Boris as leader/PM.

    It definitely won't be Boris. He's great as a provincial mayor, or as a representative abroad, but he ain't PM material and has way too many skeletons. The MPs and the membership will go for someone more sensible.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Con gain Stoke South from Lab.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    dr_spyn said:

    NE Fife - BBC think LD win by 1 vote. unconfirmed.

    Blimey! Could have been lots.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    dr_spyn said:

    NE Fife - BBC think LD win by 1 vote. unconfirmed.

    Brilliant :)
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    AndyJS said:

    Just noticed this result:

    Lanark & Hamilton East:

    SNP 16444
    Con 16178
    Lab 16084
    LD 1214
    UKIP 550

    Ugh. Could have been even worse for the SNP.
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @robertshrimsley: We're about to hear insider accounts from a lot of senior Tory strategists all of whom will turn out to have argued for a different campaign

    Next election I am not going to believe anything the insiders say. They were confident they were doing well.
    Like profilers they are con artists, right sometimes and they spin that into beliefs in their amazing insight.

  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.

    Kerching
    They actually did well in the midlands but forgot to campaign in their safe seats...oopps.
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