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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With such a focus on Corbyn’s past with Sinn Féin it is ironic

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With such a focus on Corbyn’s past with Sinn Féin it is ironic we could have an effective Tory majority thanks to Sinn Féin abstentionism

Close to a majority but no cigar pic.twitter.com/tsftilkvLw

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    46 to go, CON need 37
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Second like SCON.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    HYUFD said:

    blueblue said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    As a group of political anoraks, can anyone think of a worse political campaign than this Tory one?

    What it means is that the next time a political party wants to do something like reform social care they probably won't tell the electorate about it anywhere near an election. Is that a good thing?
    The voters clearly want populism at the moment not making hard decisions on funding social care etc, so Boris it has to be
    Agreed. Corbyn thinks he can use lies, bribes, and unicorns to charm a nation, but he's nothing compared to Boris. Time to fight populist fire with populist fire.
    Agree entirely, we have to play Corbyn at his own game, Boris it has to be. Davidson should stay in Scotland where she is clearly doing a fantastic job against the SNP
    Perhaps she could second herself to the English Tories 1 or 2 days a week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    CORRECTION CON HOLD TEWKESBURY
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    edited June 2017
    7th. as in Ruth Davidson heaven

    sixth, as in the sense that has won me far more than following ICM.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MordantMuppetry: BREAKING: Scotland declared an international Panda Sanctuary #GeneralElections2017
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,123
    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    @MordantMuppetry: BREAKING: Scotland declared an international Panda Sanctuary #GeneralElections2017

    Chortle .... :smiley:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,521
    Tewkesbury is a Con hold, not LD gain.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    RobD said:

    46 to go, CON need 37

    No chance.

    Bring on the DUP!
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    Oxford West and Abingdon - 80%+ turnout - LibDems GAIN from CON - get in you beauty!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Personally I can't vote for a Tory party led by Boris. Just can't.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    They've said they won't.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,521
    I don't think Theresa May will resign if she can get a deal with the DUP.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,849
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    A LAB+LD+SNP+SF coalition government would have the PB tories covering every piece of exposed skin with fentanyl patches.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    bookseller said:

    Oxford West and Abingdon - 80%+ turnout - LibDems GAIN from CON - get in you beauty!

    What fantastic turnout. Corbyn was right again, give people a real choice and they will turnout. Not as I would wish, but overall turnout must be pretty good.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    40% of the British public want free stuff and don't give a shiny shit what they have to do to get it. Kinda depressing really.

    Side note: after the best Labour campaign and the worst Tory campaign in history, Labour can still win only about 260 seats in their own right with Corbyn. Since he and his clique will now become a permanent fixture in the Labour party's leadership, is that really the position a party that aspires to government wants to be in?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Quelle surprise
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Sandpit said:

    I don't think Theresa May will resign if she can get a deal with the DUP.

    Unfortunate timing :p
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    If that happened, we could easily find ourselves in 'A Very British Coup' situation
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I think she'll be gone within a few days at most.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    Earlier on, I did wonder whether Corbyn would get a majority due to Sinn Fein's entering parliament.

    It's unthinkable before 2016, but may it happen?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @Sandpit....
    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    1 vote in it in Fife NE. SNP likely to ask for 3rd recount.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Loving the tmesis in the @wikiguido tweet.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    The_Apocalypse said:

    @Sandpit....

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    And Rudd hangs in.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Boris is too divisive for a party that now needs 98% loyalty on every vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: Holy shit. The BBC is reporting there is one vote between the SNP and the Lib Dems in North East Fife.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    So Brexit negotiations will need to be postponed?
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    jonny83 said:

    Personally I can't vote for a Tory party led by Boris. Just can't.

    It can't be Boris.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Exit poll looking pretty spot on - Curtice and co outdid themselves from last time, while the pollsters flair (the one that was right was probably a fluke). YouGov's model also very good.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    GB share on course for:

    Con 43.5
    Lab 40.8

    and Con approx 50 seats ahead
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Dura_Ace said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    A LAB+LD+SNP+SF coalition government would have the PB tories covering every piece of exposed skin with fentanyl patches.
    It's also probably the only thing that could produce that mythical beast, the Tory landslide!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Anyone have the Sheffield Central result ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Get George in!
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    JosiasJessop said:

    Earlier on, I did wonder whether Corbyn would get a majority due to Sinn Fein's entering parliament.

    It's unthinkable before 2016, but may it happen?

    Well they are his friends.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    the yougov last poll was 2% before re-allocations of Don't Knows took it to a 7% tory lead. It is a 2% tory lead right now.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    kle4 said:

    bookseller said:

    Oxford West and Abingdon - 80%+ turnout - LibDems GAIN from CON - get in you beauty!

    What fantastic turnout. Corbyn was right again, give people a real choice and they will turnout. Not as I would wish, but overall turnout must be pretty good.
    "Giving people a choice" was one reason I paid my £3 and voted for Corbyn. (His opponents were another.)

    At least this time people can't complain they didn't have a choice.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    Sandpit said:

    I don't think Theresa May will resign if she can get a deal with the DUP.

    Caretaker PM
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Just noticed this result:

    Lanark & Hamilton East:

    SNP 16444
    Con 16178
    Lab 16084
    LD 1214
    UKIP 550
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Maybe one of the decent Tory MPs who have been needlessly lost tonight can get parachuted into Maidenhead as compensation?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    anyone know what the DUP position is on Single Market, considering tory manifesto ruled out single market?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    God, I do feel sorry for her. Well, I'd feel more sorry if she hadn't shafted the party with the dementia bomb.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    As predicted, Amber Rudd's majority is less than Nicholas Wilson's vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Get George in!
    I wonder if he wants a peerage?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    The Tories would be taking the absolute p*ss if they elected Boris as leader/PM.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    Yes, is that a realistic danger at all?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    May must go.

    Con has to go into next GE with new popular leader.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,919
    I've been up for 26 hours ...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @robertshrimsley: We're about to hear insider accounts from a lot of senior Tory strategists all of whom will turn out to have argued for a different campaign
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Get George in!
    To do what ?

    Increase student fees ?
    Increase house prices ?
    Borrow endless billions for his vanity projects ?

    Please tell us what you expect George Osborne to do.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    MikeL said:

    May must go.

    Con has to go into next GE with new popular leader.

    The question is who, though.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    JosiasJessop said:

    I've been up for 26 hours ...

    it shows.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    JosiasJessop said:

    I've been up for 26 hours ...

    Get some sleep mate - 26 hours is too long to be awake!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited June 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    Earlier on, I did wonder whether Corbyn would get a majority due to Sinn Fein's entering parliament.

    It's unthinkable before 2016, but may it happen?

    No. It would be toxic for Sinn Fein among their owns supporters.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Loving the tmesis in the @wikiguido tweet.

    Don't you mean a tm-bloody-esis?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    numbertwelve said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    God, I do feel sorry for her. Well, I'd feel more sorry if she hadn't shafted the party with the dementia bomb.
    Her acceptance speech was painful to watch.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    The_Apocalypse said:

    The Tories would be taking the absolute p*ss if they elected Boris as leader/PM.

    Why? Labour's got a total liar and bullshitter as their leader, so why can't we?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What's going on in Southampton? No results yet.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    Yes, is that a realistic danger at all?
    QTWTAIN. they would still have to swear the oath of allegiance
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited June 2017
    Con hold Preseli Pembroke by 314
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Scott_P said:

    @robertshrimsley: We're about to hear insider accounts from a lot of senior Tory strategists all of whom will turn out to have argued for a different campaign

    Next election I am not going to believe anything the insiders say. They were confident they were doing well.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    Just noticed this result:

    Lanark & Hamilton East:

    SNP 16444
    Con 16178
    Lab 16084
    LD 1214
    UKIP 550

    bloody hell, SNP coming through the middle.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2017
    JosiasJessop said:

    Earlier on, I did wonder whether Corbyn would get a majority due to Sinn Fein's entering parliament.

    "I, [insert post-terrorist name here], swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, her heirs and successors, according to law. So help me God."


    Gonna call it unlikely.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    MikeL said:

    Con hold Preseli Pembroke

    Each hold is vital!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    Yes, is that a realistic danger at all?
    They'll never swear allegiance to the Crown. It'd be like the Pope announcing he's embracing Unitarianism.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    I see the same people who were lauding the will of the people after voting Leave are now attacking them for voting Labour
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    Easy win for Yvette Cooper. Rumours earlier today that she was in trouble wide of the mark.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    May is unimportant and pays the price for her hubris... the overriding issue is what this means for Brexit...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    nunu said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just noticed this result:

    Lanark & Hamilton East:

    SNP 16444
    Con 16178
    Lab 16084
    LD 1214
    UKIP 550

    bloody hell, SNP coming through the middle.
    That won't happen next time :p
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,521
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    Yeah, she knows she is a goner. Wonder how long she will stick around Parliament.. suspect she won't have made many friends.
    Get George in!
    George couldn't be arsed to stand.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @robertshrimsley: We're about to hear insider accounts from a lot of senior Tory strategists all of whom will turn out to have argued for a different campaign

    Next election I am not going to believe anything the insiders say. They were confident they were doing well.
    They were going on polling which turned out to be claptrap.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    So that's the fourth consecutive Tory PM and every one since 1979 to have their Premiership/destroyed by EC/EU affairs
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Any news of Caroline Lucas?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    AndyJS said:

    What's going on in Southampton? No results yet.

    There was a recount in Itchen. I hope Royston gets back in.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Tories on 292. Need 34 more out of the last 42
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.

    GAIN!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,849
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    If anyone can persuade Sinn Fein MPs to take their seats for the first time its Jezbollah

    Yes, is that a realistic danger at all?
    He could offer them a referendum on a united Ireland. They'd bite his hand off. #32COUNTYREF
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Con Forecast back UP to 318
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    not_on_fire said:

    I see the same people who were lauding the will of the people after voting Leave are now attacking them for voting Labour

    Really? Which people?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Imagine if Labour didn't do the coup, Corbyn would be PM now probably!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.

    Kerching
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    39 to go, need 32.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    NE Fife going to a 3rd recount 1 or 2 votes in it.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    3rd recount in Fife NE
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So that's the fourth consecutive Tory PM and every one since 1979 to have their Premiership/destroyed by EC/EU affairs

    Hmm, no one forced her to talk about property confiscation.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Tories targetting Leeds East....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    NE Fife - BBC think LD win by 1 vote. unconfirmed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.

    Kerching
    Thank fuck.

    Every seat helps.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    stoke on trent south gain for con
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,521
    The_Apocalypse said:

    The Tories would be taking the absolute p*ss if they elected Boris as leader/PM.

    It definitely won't be Boris. He's great as a provincial mayor, or as a representative abroad, but he ain't PM material and has way too many skeletons. The MPs and the membership will go for someone more sensible.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Con gain Stoke South from Lab.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    dr_spyn said:

    NE Fife - BBC think LD win by 1 vote. unconfirmed.

    Blimey! Could have been lots.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    dr_spyn said:

    NE Fife - BBC think LD win by 1 vote. unconfirmed.

    Brilliant :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    AndyJS said:

    Just noticed this result:

    Lanark & Hamilton East:

    SNP 16444
    Con 16178
    Lab 16084
    LD 1214
    UKIP 550

    Ugh. Could have been even worse for the SNP.
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @robertshrimsley: We're about to hear insider accounts from a lot of senior Tory strategists all of whom will turn out to have argued for a different campaign

    Next election I am not going to believe anything the insiders say. They were confident they were doing well.
    Like profilers they are con artists, right sometimes and they spin that into beliefs in their amazing insight.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Con gain Stoke on Trent South.

    Kerching
    They actually did well in the midlands but forgot to campaign in their safe seats...oopps.
This discussion has been closed.