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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With such a focus on Corbyn’s past with Sinn Féin it is ironic

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  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    DavidL said:

    Northern Ireland:

    10 DUP

    7 SF


    Does 7 SF not make the Tories bang on a majority? And they can depend on the Speaker. Gulp.
    Not sure Bercow can be depended on for anything other than what boosts his ego.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932
    Cyclefree said:

    The biggest winners are the hard Left. Sadly.

    The Tories need to have a proper leadership election and need to rethink their approach to Brexit. Quite fundamentally in my view.

    I'm glad Wes Streeting won. I was at a lunch with him recently and liked him. Very sad about Nick Clegg. But glad that the Lib Dems did better than expected.

    It's a funny old world, as someone once said, that the Tories will have got one of their highest shares of the vote and done very well in Scotland but it feels like a defeat for them.

    Still, thankfully at least no PM Corbyn - for now - and even if I'm not a Corbyn supporter, good that the young have turned out to vote. It is not good to have people not voting and if it means that politicians listen to their concerns so much the better.

    The trouble is all groups are being bribed and the economy is simply not strong enough to pay for all the promises. At some point soon reality is going to hit and it's not going to be pretty.

    Finally, I am going to buff my nails and blow my own trumpet.

    I thought Corbyn might just do it and said as much on here a few days ago, to general derision.

    I was wrong but not as wrong as all those predicting large Tory majorities.

    "The biggest winners are the hard Left. Sadly."

    You - and we - need to ask why.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Con still down 11.

    BBC forecasting two more losses.

    Only 16 seats to come.
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    hunchman said:


    Me too. As much as I dislike and detest the Tories, a hard left government doesn't bear thinking about

    Why not? What's so good about the hard right?

  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Assuming 7 Sinn Fein abstain and speaker likewise am I right in thinking that there are 642 active seats and therefore 322 are needed for effective majority?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106

    Tory party going to get wiped out in 2022 if they doing to power.

    Depends on Brexit - soft Brexit will recover the remainer seats she has lost tonight
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

    Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

    Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

    If only Clegg had told them where to go.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569

    Also, I wonder how all those Tories who paid £3 to vote for Corbyn feel now....

    LOL

    Refund?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274

    Also, I wonder how all those Tories who paid £3 to vote for Corbyn feel now....

    LOL

    Well, they've cemented the Left in control of the Labour Party for a generation. Whether they ever get power is another matter.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Talking of kip - I'm going to grab some. An hour, at least :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,231
    tlg86 said:

    Declaration for Brighton Pavilion coming shortly. Come on Labour!

    One Labour gain I wouldn't mind......
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Northern Ireland:

    10 DUP

    7 SF

    plus one Ind
    Gawd bless 'er Ladyship. :smiley:
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    DavidL said:

    Northern Ireland:

    10 DUP

    7 SF


    Does 7 SF not make the Tories bang on a majority? And they can depend on the Speaker. Gulp.
    Nope. (650-7)/2 = 643/2 = 322 for a majority.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005



    Yes, I'm very worried about the hard Left.

    I don't know how the Tories increase their popularity to prevent a defeat to them in a year or two, however.

    Two options as I can see it.

    1. Get rid of May, get a new leader and call another GE. Hope that the new leader delivers a better result than May.

    2. May stays and/or replaced by someone else and delivers Brexit. Gets annihilated in an election in 2+ years time.

    Personally I'd try and put Brexit on hold for a few months and try #1. The risk is that Corbyn wins and then it will be a nightmare.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    WINNERS

    Corbyn
    Ruth Davidson
    DUP
    Michel Barnier


    LOSERS

    May
    Labour party moderates
    SNP
    Austerity

    LOSERS:

    you.
    Again, time to take the personal away.

    Its not necessary; and it makes you sound petty.
    Care to actually address the points I make? We've had so much sh*t thrown by so-called Conservatives, and now they've lost.

    I'm the sort of person they should be appealing to. I could be persuaded. Instead we get 'Waaaaah!'.
    Its not about that. Your point was entirely personal to Alan, and entirely unnecessary.

    Get some kip mate. You'll feel better for it.
    Alan has been, and is, utterly against Cameron r. But they lost me.
    chortle

    youre off on one again

    for the record I have never been against Cameron as such he never moved me one way or the other he was just sort of there

    On Osborne, no prizes for guessing he has caused much of the conservative cock up of today
    Osborne's not in power. This disaster (and I see it as such) is not down to him, but the clown party of May, Davis, Boris and Fox, along with their acolytes.

    The politics of Cameron and Osborne are the future of the Conservative Party, not that of the Europhobes who currently hold the party's reins.
    Cameron's not there either and the future of the conservative party is not my imo continual dicking about over Europe, but improving the lives of ordinary votersthrough better housing, improved education,, improving the economy and making the country better off
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,889
    I'm guessing Rod Crosby would have tipped a hung parliament.

    IIRC he tipped:

    UK Hung Parliament 2010
    UK Tory Majority 2015
    US Trump Presidency 2016

    ......
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Brighton Pavilion still returns Green.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Danny565 said:

    This result could've been even worse for the Tories, very easily. So many seats went down to the wire, with them JUST getting over the line.

    Labour are winning in 2022.
    Oh yes. 12 years is a good run for a party anyway.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Bollocks, Lucas won. Oh well, mustn't grumble.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    atia2 said:

    hunchman said:


    Me too. As much as I dislike and detest the Tories, a hard left government doesn't bear thinking about

    Why not? What's so good about the hard right?

    Oh do me a favour if you think this is a 'hard right' government. Fucking 'ell. People have been awake too long.

    Right, I really am off to bed now.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Extraordinary exit poll. just 2 seats out.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    tlg86 said:

    Also, I wonder how all those Tories who paid £3 to vote for Corbyn feel now....

    LOL

    Well, they've cemented the Left in control of the Labour Party for a generation. Whether they ever get power is another matter.
    Yeah....and that has led to Labour making GAINS during this GE, and on a 40%+ share. They are well placed to win in 2022.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    MikeL said:

    Con still down 11.

    BBC forecasting two more losses.

    Only 16 seats to come.

    st ives?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    AlistairM said:



    Yes, I'm very worried about the hard Left.

    I don't know how the Tories increase their popularity to prevent a defeat to them in a year or two, however.

    Two options as I can see it.

    1. Get rid of May, get a new leader and call another GE. Hope that the new leader delivers a better result than May.

    2. May stays and/or replaced by someone else and delivers Brexit. Gets annihilated in an election in 2+ years time.

    Personally I'd try and put Brexit on hold for a few months and try #1. The risk is that Corbyn wins and then it will be a nightmare.
    If we can help it, I'd rather the country didn't have to have another drafted vote until after Brexit is over.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    It is possible to appoint @RuthDavidsonMSP to the House of Lords and into the Cabinet as perhaps Secretary of State for Scotland...

    — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) June 9, 2017

    Is this true?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932

    May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

    Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

    Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

    If only Clegg had told them where to go.
    It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.

    That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Roger said:

    Extraordinary exit poll. just 2 seats out.

    Curtice and co did even better than last time.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    The Labour candidate in Brighton Pavilion looks like a striking figure.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    MikeL said:

    Con still down 11.

    BBC forecasting two more losses.

    Only 16 seats to come.

    st ives?
    Kensington, Richmond Park, Crewe all in recounts I believe.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    AlistairM said:



    Yes, I'm very worried about the hard Left.

    I don't know how the Tories increase their popularity to prevent a defeat to them in a year or two, however.

    Two options as I can see it.

    1. Get rid of May, get a new leader and call another GE. Hope that the new leader delivers a better result than May.

    2. May stays and/or replaced by someone else and delivers Brexit. Gets annihilated in an election in 2+ years time.

    Personally I'd try and put Brexit on hold for a few months and try #1. The risk is that Corbyn wins and then it will be a nightmare.
    Yes - hanging on = defence = lose

    Must stay on offence = new leader + GE
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274

    tlg86 said:

    Also, I wonder how all those Tories who paid £3 to vote for Corbyn feel now....

    LOL

    Well, they've cemented the Left in control of the Labour Party for a generation. Whether they ever get power is another matter.
    Yeah....and that has led to Labour making GAINS during this GE, and on a 40%+ share. They are well placed to win in 2022.
    Up against a frankly inept Tory campaign. I'm too tired to debate this, so I'll leave it there.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932
    What should the Conservatives do?

    Kick out May, and let Corbyn try to govern.

    It'll be painful, but better in the medium- or long-term.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    4 seats left to declare on the Labour target list:

    Southampton Itchen.
    Crewe & Nantwich.
    Crawley.
    Brighton Pavilion.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit?usp=drive_web&usp=sheets_home&ths=true

    Con has held Itchen
    As in Plymouth and Portsmouth they win the working class constituency while Labour wins the middle class one.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    stjohn said:

    May is not far off evens to be next PM. I think she will carry on - because she should.

    Of course her ambitious colleagues are falling over themselves to ,"offer their services to the country". But she stood on a mandate to deliver BREXIT and the electorate have given her the most votes. So she stood stand and deliver.

    I'm not arguing through my pocket. I'm trying to interpret the GBP's thinking. She may well want to walk away - but this is her moment in history. To navigate the British people through BREXIT.

    I've talked myself around. May for next PM at 1.89.

    I'm on!

    It's clear that the electorate want 'none of the above'.

    There are big issues that need to be addressed: Brexit, terrorism and social care.

    May should propose a national government, with a 2.5 year term.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    MikeL said:

    Con still down 11.

    BBC forecasting two more losses.

    Only 16 seats to come.

    st ives?
    Kensington, Richmond Park, Crewe all in recounts I believe.
    cheers
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    I suspect Brighton Pavilion enjoy the bragging rights of having the only Green MP.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Roger said:

    Extraordinary exit poll. just 2 seats out.

    Con four out - if forecast correct.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AlistairM said:

    It is possible to appoint @RuthDavidsonMSP to the House of Lords and into the Cabinet as perhaps Secretary of State for Scotland...

    — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) June 9, 2017

    Is this true?

    Far better to keep her in Scotland. Don't change a winning formula.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Charles said:

    stjohn said:

    May is not far off evens to be next PM. I think she will carry on - because she should.

    Of course her ambitious colleagues are falling over themselves to ,"offer their services to the country". But she stood on a mandate to deliver BREXIT and the electorate have given her the most votes. So she stood stand and deliver.

    I'm not arguing through my pocket. I'm trying to interpret the GBP's thinking. She may well want to walk away - but this is her moment in history. To navigate the British people through BREXIT.

    I've talked myself around. May for next PM at 1.89.

    I'm on!

    It's clear that the electorate want 'none of the above'.

    There are big issues that need to be addressed: Brexit, terrorism and social care.

    May should propose a national government, with a 2.5 year term.
    Maybe that isn't such a bad thing, in terms of Brexit.. having both parties involved.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    MikeL said:

    AlistairM said:



    Yes, I'm very worried about the hard Left.

    I don't know how the Tories increase their popularity to prevent a defeat to them in a year or two, however.

    Two options as I can see it.

    1. Get rid of May, get a new leader and call another GE. Hope that the new leader delivers a better result than May.

    2. May stays and/or replaced by someone else and delivers Brexit. Gets annihilated in an election in 2+ years time.

    Personally I'd try and put Brexit on hold for a few months and try #1. The risk is that Corbyn wins and then it will be a nightmare.
    Yes - hanging on = defence = lose

    Must stay on offence = new leader + GE
    Take the hit for the country - Deliver Brexit, get hammered, live to fight another day. Going to the country again really would be taking the piss.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    MikeL said:

    Con still down 11.

    BBC forecasting two more losses.

    Only 16 seats to come.

    st ives?
    Or Kensington?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Newcastle Under Lyme. Lab hold by 30.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    AlistairM said:



    Yes, I'm very worried about the hard Left.

    I don't know how the Tories increase their popularity to prevent a defeat to them in a year or two, however.

    Two options as I can see it.

    1. Get rid of May, get a new leader and call another GE. Hope that the new leader delivers a better result than May.

    2. May stays and/or replaced by someone else and delivers Brexit. Gets annihilated in an election in 2+ years time.

    Personally I'd try and put Brexit on hold for a few months and try #1. The risk is that Corbyn wins and then it will be a nightmare.
    Yes - hanging on = defence = lose

    Must stay on offence = new leader + GE
    Take the hit for the country - Deliver Brexit, get hammered, live to fight another day. Going to the country again really would be taking the piss.
    Agreed.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Charles said:

    stjohn said:

    May is not far off evens to be next PM. I think she will carry on - because she should.

    Of course her ambitious colleagues are falling over themselves to ,"offer their services to the country". But she stood on a mandate to deliver BREXIT and the electorate have given her the most votes. So she stood stand and deliver.

    I'm not arguing through my pocket. I'm trying to interpret the GBP's thinking. She may well want to walk away - but this is her moment in history. To navigate the British people through BREXIT.

    I've talked myself around. May for next PM at 1.89.

    I'm on!

    It's clear that the electorate want 'none of the above'.

    There are big issues that need to be addressed: Brexit, terrorism and social care.

    May should propose a national government, with a 2.5 year term.
    Wow, I like this.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Lab hold Newc-u-L by 30!
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Newcastle under Lyme was a squeaker. Labour barely held.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    SNP forecast was down to 32 at one point, now at 35 :(
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    What should the Conservatives do?

    Kick out May, and let Corbyn try to govern.

    It'll be painful, but better in the medium- or long-term.

    Not possible, I don't think, there's no chance of Corbyn passing a Queen's Speech.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Wow, Caroline Lucas must be a bloody good MP.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    What should the Conservatives do?

    Kick out May, and let Corbyn try to govern.

    It'll be painful, but better in the medium- or long-term.

    I think you may have a point.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

    Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

    Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

    If only Clegg had told them where to go.
    It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.

    That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.
    I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.

    But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tory majority in Stirling was 148 votes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Charles said:

    stjohn said:

    May is not far off evens to be next PM. I think she will carry on - because she should.

    Of course her ambitious colleagues are falling over themselves to ,"offer their services to the country". But she stood on a mandate to deliver BREXIT and the electorate have given her the most votes. So she stood stand and deliver.

    I'm not arguing through my pocket. I'm trying to interpret the GBP's thinking. She may well want to walk away - but this is her moment in history. To navigate the British people through BREXIT.

    I've talked myself around. May for next PM at 1.89.

    I'm on!

    It's clear that the electorate want 'none of the above'.

    There are big issues that need to be addressed: Brexit, terrorism and social care.

    May should propose a national government, with a 2.5 year term.
    Labour will expect to win comfortably in 2022 now - why jeopardize that by working with the Tories?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited June 2017
    Boris loses half his majority. How could he possibly become leader when he's more responsible for the mess we're in than anyone except TM herself.

    'Do the Remainers have a new spring in their step?' They certainly do. They're the biggest long term winners
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    AlistairM said:

    It is possible to appoint @RuthDavidsonMSP to the House of Lords and into the Cabinet as perhaps Secretary of State for Scotland...

    — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) June 9, 2017

    Is this true?

    Yes, but we haven't had a PM in the Lords since Salisbury.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Labour could end up with exactly the same number of seats as in 2010.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    WINNERS

    Corbyn
    Ruth Davidson
    DUP
    Michel Barnier


    LOSERS

    May
    Labour party moderates
    SNP
    Austerity

    LOSERS:

    you.
    Again, time to take the personal away.

    Its not necessary; and it makes you sound petty.
    Care to actually address the points I make? We've had so much sh*t thrown by so-called Conservatives, and now they've lost.

    I'm the sort of person they should be appealing to. I could be persuaded. Instead we get 'Waaaaah!'.
    Its not about that. Your point was entirely personal to Alan, and entirely unnecessary.

    Get some kip mate. You'll feel better for it.
    Alan has been, and is, utterly against Cameron r. But they lost me.
    chortle

    youre off on one again

    for the record I have never been against Cameron as such he never moved me one way or the other he was just sort of there

    On Osborne, no prizes for guessing he has caused much of the conservative cock up of today
    Osborne's not in power. This disaster (and I see it as such) is not down to him, but the clown party of May, Davis, Boris and Fox, along with their acolytes.

    The politics of Cameron and Osborne are the future of the Conservative Party, not that of the Europhobes who currently hold the party's reins.
    Cameron's not there either and the future of the conservative party is not my imo continual dicking about over Europe, but improving the lives of ordinary votersthrough better housing, improved education,, improving the economy and making the country better off
    That's what I want as well. In fact (and I'll whisper it quietly) it's what many Labour and Lib Dem supporters want as well. It's not helped by those supposed 'Conservatives' who dick about over Europe.

    That's the ends. AS is often the case, the question is the all-important means.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Bye Bye Theresa!

    When the election was called I thought she might have a nasty surprise.
    I was then seduced by the opinion polls and thought she would cruise to victory. Why did I change my mind? Stupid woman should go now. The only good thing might be the stupid Brexit might be nipped in the bud.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Charles said:

    stjohn said:

    May is not far off evens to be next PM. I think she will carry on - because she should.

    Of course her ambitious colleagues are falling over themselves to ,"offer their services to the country". But she stood on a mandate to deliver BREXIT and the electorate have given her the most votes. So she stood stand and deliver.

    I'm not arguing through my pocket. I'm trying to interpret the GBP's thinking. She may well want to walk away - but this is her moment in history. To navigate the British people through BREXIT.

    I've talked myself around. May for next PM at 1.89.

    I'm on!

    It's clear that the electorate want 'none of the above'.

    There are big issues that need to be addressed: Brexit, terrorism and social care.

    May should propose a national government, with a 2.5 year term.
    Wow, I like this.
    No way is Jezza being another Ramsey MacDonald.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Forecast ticked up to 319.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    What should the Conservatives do?

    Kick out May, and let Corbyn try to govern.

    It'll be painful, but better in the medium- or long-term.

    Probably but risky.

    Corbyn would never be able to fulfil his promises and it would all fall apart quickly.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Caroline Lucas huge majority. The progressives are moving forward everywhere.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,486

    nunu said:

    AndyJS said:

    I wonder why Labour hasn't done very well in Finchley and Hendon?

    Jewish voters. Simple as.
    Yep. I don't understand why this doesn't concern Corbynistas.
    Not enough Jewish voters. Lots more Muslim voters. Plus in the hard Left's world view Jews are the enemy: they are white and rich and probably pro-America and capitalist. Anti-Semitism is not really racism in their view. It is a morally repellent view, regardless of Corbyn's electoral success. But it is not, sadly, one which is widely shared, even on this forum.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Danny565 said:

    Labour could end up with exactly the same number of seats as in 2010.

    They are on 259 now. They won 258 in 2010.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

    Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

    Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

    If only Clegg had told them where to go.
    It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.

    That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.
    I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.

    But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.
    as well as pissing off parents who dont see why their kids should be racked up with debt

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932

    May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

    Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

    Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

    If only Clegg had told them where to go.
    It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.

    That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.
    I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.

    But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.
    I'm in the let-industry-decide camp.

    Then again, I'm a pleb without a degree.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    atia2 said:

    hunchman said:


    Me too. As much as I dislike and detest the Tories, a hard left government doesn't bear thinking about

    Why not? What's so good about the hard right?

    Extremes on both sides are equally bad. Far right and far left become one and the same- discriminating against certain groups out of envy, spite and bitterness.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The country has never been more divided. If you look at the number of seats where either the Tories or Labour got more than 60% it's a very long list.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    MikeL said:

    Roger said:

    Extraordinary exit poll. just 2 seats out.

    Con four out - if forecast correct.
    316 is latest estimate I think?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Forecast ticked up to 319.

    And LD to 14!

    Some unfortunate losses, they might have come within a whisker of the original predictions of late teens.

    Still think Swinson or someone should take over from him though. They have a tough road to find seats they can challenge in next time.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

    Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

    Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

    If only Clegg had told them where to go.
    It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.

    That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.
    I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.

    But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.
    I'm in the let-industry-decide camp.

    Then again, I'm a pleb without a degree.
    industry isnt training people, it;s importing trained ones from other countries
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Forecast ticked up to 319.

    Implies a gain in Ceredigion or Dudley N (I assume Fife NE is out) and holding all the rest.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    What should the Conservatives do?

    Kick out May, and let Corbyn try to govern.

    It'll be painful, but better in the medium- or long-term.

    Probably but risky.

    Corbyn would never be able to fulfil his promises and it would all fall apart quickly.
    Totally agree.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Do the Tories stick to Hard Brexit or do get the Great Betrayal?
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,551
    I didn't expect it. but survation has made had the best result. BMG had the worst result at the moment (least Labour result)
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Forecast ticked up to 319.

    Don't think so after losing Newcastle-under-Lyme so narrowly. More candidates lost with over 40pc of the vote tonight for many a long year.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    BBC are calling it-it's a hung parliament.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932

    What should the Conservatives do?

    Kick out May, and let Corbyn try to govern.

    It'll be painful, but better in the medium- or long-term.

    Probably but risky.

    Corbyn would never be able to fulfil his promises and it would all fall apart quickly.
    People want change. That's what leavers promised, but they didn't think through the consequences.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Tories now on 311 - enough to pass a Queens Speech with DUP backing.

    The next government will be Tory. How long it lasts is another question entirely.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    What should the Conservatives do?

    Kick out May, and let Corbyn try to govern.

    It'll be painful, but better in the medium- or long-term.

    I think you may have a point.
    I just can't see this happening. There's no love lost between Lab and SNP. LibDems won't work with Corbyn. Any attempt by Corbyn to rule would fail within the first week, wouldn't it? Not worth risking the embarrassment.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Do the Tories stick to Hard Brexit or do get the Great Betrayal?

    It was the Brexit election and the Tories lost.

    They should scrap Brexit.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017
    atia2 said:

    Yes, but we haven't had a PM in the Lords since Salisbury.

    Not so. Lord Home was PM from the HoL.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited June 2017

    Do the Tories stick to Hard Brexit or do get the Great Betrayal?

    It was the Brexit election and the Tories lost.

    They should scrap Brexit.
    Labour were supporting Brexit going in to this election!

    As nickP speculated, their less gung ho approach, whilst not going as far as the LDs, night have been crucial in some places.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Tories now on 311 - enough to pass a Queens Speech with DUP backing.

    The next government will be Tory. How long it lasts is another question entirely.

    The Tories will stay in power for five years. It's just a question of who's in charge.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Do the Tories stick to Hard Brexit or do get the Great Betrayal?

    It was the Brexit election and the Tories lost.

    They should scrap Brexit.
    How?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    319+10 = 329.

    As you were, basically.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,486

    camel said:

    @Sandpit....

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    And Rudd hangs in.
    I think Rudd's past business dealings may be an obstacle to her becoming PM, perhaps rather more than her marginal seat is. ......
    Why? After all this election should have taught us that a candidate's past - and even lies about that past - are no bar to electoral success.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Boris Johnson to double rat on Brexit?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Roger said:

    MikeL said:

    Roger said:

    Extraordinary exit poll. just 2 seats out.

    Con four out - if forecast correct.
    316 is latest estimate I think?
    It was 318 when I posted - but now 319.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Tories now on 311 - enough to pass a Queens Speech with DUP backing.

    The next government will be Tory. How long it lasts is another question entirely.

    Tory minority government is the only viable one.

    What is DUP Brexit policy?

    Soft border with Ireland?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Lab gain Crewe and Nantwich.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932

    May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

    Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

    Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

    If only Clegg had told them where to go.
    It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.

    That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.
    I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.

    But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.
    I'm in the let-industry-decide camp.

    Then again, I'm a pleb without a degree.
    industry isnt training people, it;s importing trained ones from other countries
    There are about 6,000 silicon chip designers - analogue and digital - in the country.

    6,000.

    When it comes to the rarer analogue (radio) regime, over half of the civil side were on the ship when we got married.

    This is f'all to do with the EU. It's to do with *our* historic decisions. We need to import due to our fuckwitidness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    319+10 = 329.

    As you were, basically.

    Well not really - the price for DUP support may be high, and Tories won't be 100% disciplined.

    Hung parliament an awkward result. But now there will need to be a lot of parliamentary involvement in any negotiation, cumbersome as that is - no where to ensure backing for government strategy otherwise.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

    Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

    Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

    If only Clegg had told them where to go.
    It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.

    That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.
    I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.

    But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.
    as well as pissing off parents who dont see why their kids should be racked up with debt

    Two kids means £54k fees debt (plus other university debts).

    Unaffordable housing in many middle class areas and then the government has the bright idea of the dementia tax.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,551
    AndyJS said:

    Tories now on 311 - enough to pass a Queens Speech with DUP backing.

    The next government will be Tory. How long it lasts is another question entirely.

    The Tories will stay in power for five years. It's just a question of who's in charge.
    There''ll be another election. not possible to last the length of time for a 5 year term
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,932
    dr_spyn said:

    Lab gain Crewe and Nantwich.

    That's a massive shame.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Cyclefree said:

    camel said:

    @Sandpit....

    Scott_P said:

    @reactionlife: ITV reporting that Theresa May is likely to announce her intention to resign and trigger a Conservative leadership contest this morning.

    And Rudd hangs in.
    I think Rudd's past business dealings may be an obstacle to her becoming PM, perhaps rather more than her marginal seat is. ......
    Why? After all this election should have taught us that a candidate's past - and even lies about that past - are no bar to electoral success.

    My thoughts exactly.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    dr_spyn said:

    Lab gain Crewe and Nantwich.

    Excellent election for Labour in the North West.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Tories now on 311 - enough to pass a Queens Speech with DUP backing.

    The next government will be Tory. How long it lasts is another question entirely.

    Tory minority government is the only viable one.

    What is DUP Brexit policy?

    Soft border with Ireland?
    That was already on th eTory wishlist I would think.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    319 looks ambitious.

    It implies one more loss - yet there are several recounts underway which could lead to losses.
This discussion has been closed.