May is not far off evens to be next PM. I think she will carry on - because she should.
Of course her ambitious colleagues are falling over themselves to ,"offer their services to the country". But she stood on a mandate to deliver BREXIT and the electorate have given her the most votes. So she stood stand and deliver.
I'm not arguing through my pocket. I'm trying to interpret the GBP's thinking. She may well want to walk away - but this is her moment in history. To navigate the British people through BREXIT.
I've talked myself around. May for next PM at 1.89.
I'm on!
It's clear that the electorate want 'none of the above'.
There are big issues that need to be addressed: Brexit, terrorism and social care.
May should propose a national government, with a 2.5 year term.
I stayed up and watched the whole thing - with the help of grapefruit juice, Pringles and (yes...) popcorn.
I'm sad about the Lib Dem losses (especially Nick Clegg) but happy to see the overall gains. This looks, overall, like a much stronger and effective Lib Dem parliamentary team now - and I don't particularly mean in the numerical sense but more in terms of the individual people involved.
Off to work now. Hope I can stay awake for another 9 hours there.
Jo Swinson or Norman Lamb would do well as leader, both have a bit more gravitas.
Tim's second referendum policy was a bit of a vote loser, even if it winds up being what we get.
Well if May does resign, Betfair says there are only 5 Tory runners:
May 2.44-2.58
Boris 4-4.3 (Foreign Sec) Davis 12-12.5 (Europe Sec and previous Shadow Home Secretary). Rudd 7.8-10.5 (Home Sec) Hammond 50-140 (Chancellor) Gove 70-110 (Previously at Education and Justice)
All have problems but at current prices I'm happy with my score on Gove.
Lets be honest. The incoming government has no authority. No traction. No power to negotiate a glass of water from the EU never mind a cost-free hard brexit with access to the single market. What a cluster fuck by the Maybot. Let "Strong and Stable" go down as the stupidest campaign strategy of this generation.
You are forgetting that Brexit means Brexit.
Meaningless sloganising got Ed Miliband nowhere, she might have learnt that.
Well if May does resign, Betfair says there are only 5 Tory runners:
May 2.44-2.58
Boris 4-4.3 (Foreign Sec) Davis 12-12.5 (Europe Sec and previous Shadow Home Secretary). Rudd 7.8-10.5 (Home Sec) Hammond 50-140 (Chancellor) Gove 70-110 (Previously at Education and Justice)
All have problems but at current prices I'm happy with my score on Gove.
Well if May does resign, Betfair says there are only 5 Tory runners:
May 2.44-2.58
Boris 4-4.3 (Foreign Sec) Davis 12-12.5 (Europe Sec and previous Shadow Home Secretary). Rudd 7.8-10.5 (Home Sec) Hammond 50-140 (Chancellor) Gove 70-110 (Previously at Education and Justice)
All have problems but at current prices I'm happy with my score on Gove.
It will be Davis.
Boris too maverick.
Rudd too weakened.
Hammond too grey.
I'm thinking Davis too, since he is heavily involved with the Brexit negotiations.
Best Labour result in terms of votes cast since 1997 - or to put it the other way Jezhollah got 2m more votes than Blair in 2001.
A fascinating evening. A dozen of those seats won by a double digit vote majority going the other way, and Jeremy would be PM. As it is we don't know who the PM will be...
One option: 1. May resigns at 10am. They'll anoint Boris as populist Foreign Secretary 2. DUP put demands in that the Tories can't back - they want the single market to protect their border 3. Tory Queens Speech contains no material at all barring Brexit. Will it pass...?
Lets be honest. The incoming government has no authority. No traction. No power to negotiate a glass of water from the EU never mind a cost-free hard brexit with access to the single market. What a cluster fuck by the Maybot. Let "Strong and Stable" go down as the stupidest campaign strategy of this generation.
Disaster. At least my reports back here from Torbay were spot on the money - Kevin Foster stuck over 10k onto his majority, up 12.4%; LibDem tactical votes unwinding, down 8.7%; Labour benefiting up 9.5%; and UKIP smashed, down 11.2%. However, I did say it felt like the caravan had moved on, that we in Torbay could only hear distant gunfire, but were no longer at the Front. The battle was elsewhere.
The central literature we were sent to deliver though was shite, in my opinion. Scatter gun, messy, confusing, no coherent message. The central premise was: Theresa May. What we were asked to deliver was a cult of personality to somebody who, frankly, has no personality. Certainly, nothing to sell. She has to go after this debacle because if she doesn't, nothing will improve.
I also think Philip Hammond takes a big chunk of blame. Labour's offering was avoid of any economic merit whatsoever. It was every wish you could imagine, cobbled together to appeal to the widest audience who wanted to hear SOMETHING as a reason to vote. The suppliers of Moons on Sticks have had a blinder. It should have been systematically DESTROYED.
Even from the bubble of Torbay, I feared this might happen. Not for nothing did I say that May needed to stand up on Monday and offer to meet the notorious £350m a week to the NHS by the end of this Parliament. No more of a Moon on a Stick than Labour were offering, but it would have given a PURPOSE to getting Brexit through. A purpose totally lacking in this campaign. She'd be looking at a majority north of 100 if she had.
This was a Brexit election that had nothing to sell to the voters. Some hard-hitting honesty about future pension costs and later life care costs was not a Manifesto to compensate. Not when the other guy is offering bright, shiny things, even if they were so fragile they would break before you could get them home.
Well if May does resign, Betfair says there are only 5 Tory runners:
May 2.44-2.58
Boris 4-4.3 (Foreign Sec) Davis 12-12.5 (Europe Sec and previous Shadow Home Secretary). Rudd 7.8-10.5 (Home Sec) Hammond 50-140 (Chancellor) Gove 70-110 (Previously at Education and Justice)
All have problems but at current prices I'm happy with my score on Gove.
What a poor bunch. Each of them almost certainly fatally flawed. Look for value in the next batch, Truss, Clark or perhaps Fallon as a safe pair of hands?
I'd go for Davis too - and he'll be best bet for a quick GE:
- Good debater - Working class appeal
God, no.
He's one of the causes of this mess. How can he ask for loyalty when he showed non towards the party's only successful leader in more then twenty years?
May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.
Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.
Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.
If only Clegg had told them where to go.
It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.
That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.
I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.
But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.
as well as pissing off parents who dont see why their kids should be racked up with debt
Two kids means £54k fees debt (plus other university debts).
Unaffordable housing in many middle class areas and then the government has the bright idea of the dementia tax.
it costs about £50k per kid for a degree
two grads getting married have a £100k mortgage around their neck before they get anywhre near a house
Loose change to some of the Bullingdon crowd.
But it was blindingly obviously back in 2010 that it would produce disaster sooner or later.
Strange how you never mentioned that when you were tipping May to win Sunderland Central. Can't pin this on Cameron however much you want to. It's a reaction against Brexit and against May being utterly talentless. As has been pointed out by some here for a long time.
Well, I was wrong - for me personally thank God I didn't bet the farm on the result. Being wrong is the prerogative of politicians and us pundits, amateurs all.
Unlike us, the electorate can never be wrong. Wherever we find ourselves we must now work with the Commons we are now presented with.
Here in Westmorland a staggeringly good result for James Airey to come within 800 votes of taking the seat. Had the national result even been at the worst possible expectation he would have romped home with a majority into several thousands.
I don't think Theresa can continue. In actual terms ( expectation minus outcome ) this is a worse result for us Conservatives than 1997. Two years ago Clegg said history would be kinder to his party that the electorate. No doubt history will vilify Theresa - and that will be really unfair.
I thought she did the right thing in calling the election - let him who thought otherwise cast the first stone.
Well if May does resign, Betfair says there are only 5 Tory runners:
May 2.44-2.58
Boris 4-4.3 (Foreign Sec) Davis 12-12.5 (Europe Sec and previous Shadow Home Secretary). Rudd 7.8-10.5 (Home Sec) Hammond 50-140 (Chancellor) Gove 70-110 (Previously at Education and Justice)
All have problems but at current prices I'm happy with my score on Gove.
What a poor bunch. Each of them almost certainly fatally flawed. Look for value in the next batch, Truss, Clark or perhaps Fallon as a safe pair of hands?
I backed Boris at 100+ just after the exit poll (fast fingers) but I traded out at 5. I don't think he will form the first ministry even if he becomes leader. I think May must form the first ministry, come what May.
May is not far off evens to be next PM. I think she will carry on - because she should.
Of course her ambitious colleagues are falling over themselves to ,"offer their services to the country". But she stood on a mandate to deliver BREXIT and the electorate have given her the most votes. So she stood stand and deliver.
I'm not arguing through my pocket. I'm trying to interpret the GBP's thinking. She may well want to walk away - but this is her moment in history. To navigate the British people through BREXIT.
I've talked myself around. May for next PM at 1.89.
I'm on!
It's clear that the electorate want 'none of the above'.
There are big issues that need to be addressed: Brexit, terrorism and social care.
May should propose a national government, with a 2.5 year term.
Labour will expect to win comfortably in 2022 now - why jeopardize that by working with the Tories?
Well if May does resign, Betfair says there are only 5 Tory runners:
May 2.44-2.58
Boris 4-4.3 (Foreign Sec) Davis 12-12.5 (Europe Sec and previous Shadow Home Secretary). Rudd 7.8-10.5 (Home Sec) Hammond 50-140 (Chancellor) Gove 70-110 (Previously at Education and Justice)
All have problems but at current prices I'm happy with my score on Gove.
What a poor bunch. Each of them almost certainly fatally flawed. Look for value in the next batch, Truss, Clark or perhaps Fallon as a safe pair of hands?
I backed Boris at 100+ just after the exit poll (fast fingers) but I traded out at 5. I don't think he will form the first ministry even if he becomes leader. I think May must form the first ministry, come what May.
Theresa May, in the name of God, GO.....and GO NOW!
Scotland results are very very different from the UK results
- turnout decreased a lot (71.1 to 66.4) - SNP lost a third of its 2015 votes (-477 000) - CON gained 75% more votes than in 2015 - LAB almost stood still (+10 000) and LD actually lost votes (-20 000) but both gained seats...
Well, the pollsters and all of us on here got it wrong. Did anyone make any money - apart from the bookies?
I lost on Con majority, but minimised it by a reverse ferret on the exit poll.
I thought that SLAB would be a surprise winner in Scotland, though my Glasgow bets will only just break even. My SCon constituency bets were at decent odds, and my bets on Lab and LD in the constituency markets have come in well. I had Lab take Hallam and Cambridge, but also Plymouth, Portsmouth, Peterborough, and a few others. Some near misses like Broxtowe too.
If the Cons have a coronation of BoJo/Rudd or Hammond then I do well on the next PM market. Not sure that is really possible though.
May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.
Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.
Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.
If only Clegg had told them where to go.
It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.
That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.
I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.
But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.
as well as pissing off parents who dont see why their kids should be racked up with debt
Two kids means £54k fees debt (plus other university debts).
Unaffordable housing in many middle class areas and then the government has the bright idea of the dementia tax.
it costs about £50k per kid for a degree
two grads getting married have a £100k mortgage around their neck before they get anywhre near a house
Loose change to some of the Bullingdon crowd.
But it was blindingly obviously back in 2010 that it would produce disaster sooner or later.
Strange how you never mentioned that when you were tipping May to win Sunderland Central. Can't pin this on Cameron however much you want to. It's a reaction against Brexit and against May being utterly talentless. As has been pointed out by some here for a long time.
I never predicted the Conservatives to win Sunderland Central - I look for value on all sides in my bets and have done very well from them today. If you don't believe me that you might like to check with Pulpstar, Murali and AndyJS over bets I have tipped to them. Likewise I have disagreed with suggestions that the Conservatives ever had chances to win West Bromwich West and Sheffield Hallam for example.
And I also said that Cameron's policy of £9k per year of student fees was a bad one which would have negative effects including one day negative electoral effects.
Scotland results are very very different from the UK results
- turnout decreased a lot (71.1 to 66.4) - SNP lost a third of its 2015 votes (-477 000) - CON gained 75% more votes than in 2015 - LAB almost stood still (+10 000) and LD actually lost votes (-20 000) but both gained seats...
I'd go for Davis too - and he'll be best bet for a quick GE:
- Good debater - Working class appeal
God, no.
He's one of the causes of this mess. How can he ask for loyalty when he showed non towards the party's only successful leader in more then twenty years?
Look for the new blood.
David Davis would be good. He's committed to civil liberties, that's one of the big reasons why I fell out with the Tory party. And he's a good debater, good back story - ideal for the job. He won't get it though after being seen as yesterday's man having lost to Cameron 11 years ago.
Well, the pollsters and all of us on here got it wrong. Did anyone make any money - apart from the bookies?
I lost on Con majority, but minimised it by a reverse ferret on the exit poll.
I thought that SLAB would be a surprise winner in Scotland, though my Glasgow bets will only just break even. My SCon constituency bets were at decent odds, and my bets on Lab and LD in the constituency markets have come in well. I had Lab take Hallam and Cambridge, but also Plymouth, Portsmouth, Peterborough, and a few others. Some near misses like Broxtowe too.
If the Cons have a coronation of BoJo/Rudd or Hammond then I do well on the next PM market. Not sure that is really possible though.
I don't think Theresa can stay as PM and the Tories need someone who can negotiate with the EU. The clock is ticking so they need that soon, so it has to be a coronation doesn't it? Hammond could do it.
Just as Theresa May was a remainer who converted to back Brexit after the referendum, David Davis is a Brexiter who can sell a soft Brexit now. Given they need a big hitter he would be my choice for new PM.
I'd go for Davis too - and he'll be best bet for a quick GE:
- Good debater - Working class appeal
God, no.
He's one of the causes of this mess. How can he ask for loyalty when he showed non towards the party's only successful leader in more then twenty years?
Look for the new blood.
David Davis would be good. He's committed to civil liberties, that's one of the big reasons why I fell out with the Tory party. And he's a good debater, good back story - ideal for the job. He won't get it though after being seen as yesterday's man having lost to Cameron 11 years ago.
He also went rogue when the Conservatives were in opposition forcing an unnecessary by election. I think he's very good at the job he currently has. My vote would be for BoJo- a Brextieer populist with a personality.
I'd go for Davis too - and he'll be best bet for a quick GE:
- Good debater - Working class appeal
God, no.
He's one of the causes of this mess. How can he ask for loyalty when he showed non towards the party's only successful leader in more then twenty years?
Look for the new blood.
David Davis would be good. He's committed to civil liberties, that's one of the big reasons why I fell out with the Tory party. And he's a good debater, good back story - ideal for the job. He won't get it though after being seen as yesterday's man having lost to Cameron 11 years ago.
He also went rogue when the Conservatives were in opposition forcing an unnecessary by election. I think he's very good at the job he currently has. My vote would be for BoJo- a Brextieer populist with a personality.
That was on a very principled resignation over civil liberties, and his Haltemprice constituents backed him!
Isn't it funny that in 2015 the broadcasters all expected to spend the day after the election talking about coalitions and ended up taking majority government and in 2017 they were expecting to talk majority and are now talking coalitions. What a world.
I'd go for Davis too - and he'll be best bet for a quick GE:
- Good debater - Working class appeal
God, no.
He's one of the causes of this mess. How can he ask for loyalty when he showed non towards the party's only successful leader in more then twenty years?
Look for the new blood.
David Davis would be good. He's committed to civil liberties, that's one of the big reasons why I fell out with the Tory party. And he's a good debater, good back story - ideal for the job. He won't get it though after being seen as yesterday's man having lost to Cameron 11 years ago.
He also went rogue when the Conservatives were in opposition forcing an unnecessary by election. I think he's very good at the job he currently has. My vote would be for BoJo- a Brextieer populist with a personality.
It needs to be a serious politician, BoJo doesn't fit that description and Davis with his by-election stunt isn't much better.
Isn't it funny that in 2015 the broadcasters all expected to spend the day after the election talking about coalitions and ended up taking majority government and in 2017 they were expecting to talk majority and are now talking coalitions. What a world.
I'd go for Davis too - and he'll be best bet for a quick GE:
- Good debater - Working class appeal
God, no.
He's one of the causes of this mess. How can he ask for loyalty when he showed non towards the party's only successful leader in more then twenty years?
Look for the new blood.
David Davis would be good. He's committed to civil liberties, that's one of the big reasons why I fell out with the Tory party. And he's a good debater, good back story - ideal for the job. He won't get it though after being seen as yesterday's man having lost to Cameron 11 years ago.
He also went rogue when the Conservatives were in opposition forcing an unnecessary by election. I think he's very good at the job he currently has. My vote would be for BoJo- a Brextieer populist with a personality.
It needs to be a serious politician, BoJo doesn't fit that description and Davis with his by-election stunt isn't much better.
For goodness sake not Amber Augusta Rudd. You can bet it Theresa resigns, she'll try and stitch it up for her dreadful sidekick
I'd go for Davis too - and he'll be best bet for a quick GE:
- Good debater - Working class appeal
God, no.
He's one of the causes of this mess. How can he ask for loyalty when he showed non towards the party's only successful leader in more then twenty years?
Look for the new blood.
David Davis would be good. He's committed to civil liberties, that's one of the big reasons why I fell out with the Tory party. And he's a good debater, good back story - ideal for the job. He won't get it though after being seen as yesterday's man having lost to Cameron 11 years ago.
He also went rogue when the Conservatives were in opposition forcing an unnecessary by election. I think he's very good at the job he currently has. My vote would be for BoJo- a Brextieer populist with a personality.
It needs to be a serious politician, BoJo doesn't fit that description and Davis with his by-election stunt isn't much better.
For goodness sake not Amber Augusta Rudd. You can bet it Theresa resigns, she'll try and stitch it up for her dreadful sidekick
Comments
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
They hold the future to the Conservative party. Shame the Europhobes got rid of them, and they are left with clowns such as Boris, Davis or Fox.
And a shame so many of the Europhobes on here are going, or have gone, abroad.
Bring on Corbyn. At least he offers change.
Tim's second referendum policy was a bit of a vote loser, even if it winds up being what we get.
Boris too maverick.
Rudd too weakened.
Hammond too grey.
Hahahahaha.
Dehli is currently 42+ degrees c. So these meetings were scheduled for a cooler climate..
- Good debater
- Working class appeal
;-) Just kidding.
The central literature we were sent to deliver though was shite, in my opinion. Scatter gun, messy, confusing, no coherent message. The central premise was: Theresa May. What we were asked to deliver was a cult of personality to somebody who, frankly, has no personality. Certainly, nothing to sell. She has to go after this debacle because if she doesn't, nothing will improve.
I also think Philip Hammond takes a big chunk of blame. Labour's offering was avoid of any economic merit whatsoever. It was every wish you could imagine, cobbled together to appeal to the widest audience who wanted to hear SOMETHING as a reason to vote. The suppliers of Moons on Sticks have had a blinder. It should have been systematically DESTROYED.
Even from the bubble of Torbay, I feared this might happen. Not for nothing did I say that May needed to stand up on Monday and offer to meet the notorious £350m a week to the NHS by the end of this Parliament. No more of a Moon on a Stick than Labour were offering, but it would have given a PURPOSE to getting Brexit through. A purpose totally lacking in this campaign. She'd be looking at a majority north of 100 if she had.
This was a Brexit election that had nothing to sell to the voters. Some hard-hitting honesty about future pension costs and later life care costs was not a Manifesto to compensate. Not when the other guy is offering bright, shiny things, even if they were so fragile they would break before you could get them home.
The curse of interesting times lies ahead.
Did anyone make any money - apart from the bookies?
He's one of the causes of this mess. How can he ask for loyalty when he showed non towards the party's only successful leader in more then twenty years?
Look for the new blood.
Can't pin this on Cameron however much you want to. It's a reaction against Brexit and against May being utterly talentless.
As has been pointed out by some here for a long time.
Unlike us, the electorate can never be wrong. Wherever we find ourselves we must now work with the Commons we are now presented with.
Here in Westmorland a staggeringly good result for James Airey to come within 800 votes of taking the seat. Had the national result even been at the worst possible expectation he would have romped home with a majority into several thousands.
I don't think Theresa can continue. In actual terms ( expectation minus outcome ) this is a worse result for us Conservatives than 1997. Two years ago Clegg said history would be kinder to his party that the electorate. No doubt history will vilify Theresa - and that will be really unfair.
I thought she did the right thing in calling the election - let him who thought otherwise cast the first stone.
tired and emotional I think is the phrase
- turnout decreased a lot (71.1 to 66.4)
- SNP lost a third of its 2015 votes (-477 000)
- CON gained 75% more votes than in 2015
- LAB almost stood still (+10 000) and LD actually lost votes (-20 000) but both gained seats...
I thought that SLAB would be a surprise winner in Scotland, though my Glasgow bets will only just break even. My SCon constituency bets were at decent odds, and my bets on Lab and LD in the constituency markets have come in well. I had Lab take Hallam and Cambridge, but also Plymouth, Portsmouth, Peterborough, and a few others. Some near misses like Broxtowe too.
If the Cons have a coronation of BoJo/Rudd or Hammond then I do well on the next PM market. Not sure that is really possible though.
And I also said that Cameron's policy of £9k per year of student fees was a bad one which would have negative effects including one day negative electoral effects.
Please don't try to deny it, you know I'm right.
Hammond could do it.