politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do
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Thought that went hours ago.AndreaParma_82 said:Labour gained Leeds NW
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@JamieRoss7: Took a call I never thought I would: SNP source says there'll be "questions" tomorrow over the Sturgeon/Murrell leadership of the party.0
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Indeed. WTF Was Fox Hunting doing in the Tory manifesto. Crazy0
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That's garbage. If EVEL applies, the Tories will have a clear majority. Journalists are really thick sometimes!CarlottaVance said:0 -
I would have thought so. Tories have an absolute majority of non-Scottish MPs.kle4 said:
Won't the SLAN and SLD MPs cancel it out though?CarlottaVance said:0 -
I've backed a Tory minority government at 1.42. Can anyone else see an alternative outcome?
If we knew May was not about to resign then backing her as next PM at 1.86 looks decent value. But will she stick it out or pass the baton on? I think she will be PM in the immediate post election government. I don't think the Great British Public would readily accept yet another unelected and "parachuted in" PM.0 -
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Gibraltar independence?TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.
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CON Gain Aberdeenshire west & Kincardine0
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2nd recount Fife NE0
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Darn, SNP up to 30.0
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Chortle.Richard_Nabavi said:
That's garbage. If EVEL applies, the Tories will have a clear majority. Journalists are really thick sometimes!CarlottaVance said:0 -
However grim this looks for the SNP, it'll only get grimes in the next election as the tactical voters work out what to do. (ENL, Fife & Perth will all fall).0
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My only correct call in #GE2017
SNP =
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So, I am either £95 down for the night, or £200 up depending upon whether SPIN honour my stop loss, or not.
What a waste of time.0 -
Yes but I believe the exit poll predicted LD gain here.rcs1000 said:
Not surprising given Holyrood results last year.Paristonda said:SNP hold in charles kennedy's old seat
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Weaver Vale Labour gain.I flagged this up yesterday at long odds.What a Labour campaign.The organising teams can pat themselves on the back and the comms have just been at a different level.The excellent rebuttal to the Tory lies was swift and aggressive, and the garden tax remains in just a wet dream of CCHQ.0
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At what cost does that change?GeoffM said:
Why you you have that as an OR?JosiasJessop said:
What matters most to you? Being out of the EU at the moment, or the good of the country?GeoffM said:
Still Brexiting.JosiasJessop said:
LOL. Care to explain that?GeoffM said:
You've still lost that one.JosiasJessop said:
It looks as though you have lost seats.MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.
Brexiters have lost. Such as yourself, who has pissed off abroad and should therefore have little view on this.
It is me and mine that will suffer from *your* folly.
Suck it up.
To use one of your fellow traveller's words: traitor.
I think being out of the EU *is* good for the country.0 -
Maybe Jeremy Hunt next PM?0
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Con gain Mansfield?0
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What's Osborne going to offer ?MaxPB said:Whatever happens, the Cameroons have to be brought back in from the cold. Gove needs a big role and we need Osborne back, maybe he can stand in Maidenhead when Theresa stands down.
Higher student fees ? Higher house prices ? More borrowing to fund vanity projects ?
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Con gain Mansfield0
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Conservatives gain Mansfield!0
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In theory, any government minister could take over as party leader. – er, I think.RobD said:On future leaders, I wonder if it has to be Davis? Given is work as Brexit secretary, wouldn't he be ideal to take over immediately?
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Too much baggage I think.noisywinter said:Maybe Jeremy Hunt next PM?
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N&L? Can't work that out at 4am.Pulpstar said:LOL SNP Hold N&L against the tide.
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Con gain Mansfield from Lab.0
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Recount in Newcastle-U-L with Lab 19 votes ahead.0
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Seat tallies level.... crossover at last!0
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Works for me, if they can get that through the commons. Although what do they mean by soft of course.SeanT said:0 -
Conservative and Unionist Party + Democratic Unionist Party confidence and supply + Sinn Fein don't take their seats
= Thin majority for Conservatives0 -
MANSFIELD FUCK ME0
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Surely he's too toxic?noisywinter said:Maybe Jeremy Hunt next PM?
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I think the Tory party could appoint anyone as leader.SimonStClare said:
In theory, any government minister could take over as party leader. – er, I think.RobD said:On future leaders, I wonder if it has to be Davis? Given is work as Brexit secretary, wouldn't he be ideal to take over immediately?
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What a disaster.
The Conservatives left with a minority administration. Theresa May will be gone later today, though probably hang on a few weeks whilst the bloodlettings commence.
Whilst clearly Labour have gone forward, it's under Corbyn which about 180 of the MPs don't want as leader or even agree with his programme, but now can't deny that it is his programme that has gone forward, his ideas that are ringing with the country.
I can't see the Conservative administration lasting 5 years. I think we could easily see a 2020 election (forced), which would be ironic. As for Brexit, that's going to be a real, real problem now but with Labour technically supporting it, something must be negotiated. But it's probably going to be disastrous.0 -
Con gains Mansfield... somehow.0
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Which is actually a good point, just made the wrong way.Mortimer said:
Without 30-odd SNP MPs, the Tories will be able to get their English domestic agenda through quite easily.
It is the national votes like the budget and Queens Speech that are going to be the harder battles.
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He is just not good enough.noisywinter said:Maybe Jeremy Hunt next PM?
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MANSFIELD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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The Foxes are safe. I think some of them even popped into some polling stations to cast votes for left-of-centre parties....0
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LAB Gain Edinburgh South0
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As a red killed delighted my ukip voters and fellow leavers knew may was to toxic to vote for.0
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I started the campaign as a labour optimist thinking they might get close to 200. Well done Corbyn, you magnificent bastard. I hope he personally visits all his moderate rebels and asks them to kiss his ring.0
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We aren't anyone's to "give away" and we'd fight rather than be occupied.CarlottaVance said:
Gibraltar independence?TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.
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ITV saying Lab gain more then Tories with over 65s!!!0
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Con gain Mansfield????0
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His strop a few years back. Too many people see him as a potential leader, when he's patently unsuited.KentRising said:
Why?JosiasJessop said:David Davis re-elected.
Shame.0 -
I'm about £450 in the hole, unless I've forgotten about some bets somewhere...Casino_Royale said:So, I am either £95 down for the night, or £200 up depending upon whether SPIN honour my stop loss, or not.
What a waste of time.0 -
NI polarisation complete.0
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Mansfield Con GAIN!0
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YAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSeanT said:0 -
Ken Clarke's earned it, don't you think?RobD said:
I think the Tory party could appoint anyone as leader.SimonStClare said:
In theory, any government minister could take over as party leader. – er, I think.RobD said:On future leaders, I wonder if it has to be Davis? Given is work as Brexit secretary, wouldn't he be ideal to take over immediately?
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Tories getting 11-14% swings in Scotland.
Ruth, laird of all she surveys.0 -
UKIP votes going labour have lost Brexit and soft Brexit or no Brexit here we come0
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ITV chart Labour doing better/gaining votes with the over 65's than the Tories...0
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I think even he would admit he is a bit past it.williamglenn said:
Ken Clarke's earned it, don't you think?RobD said:
I think the Tory party could appoint anyone as leader.SimonStClare said:
In theory, any government minister could take over as party leader. – er, I think.RobD said:On future leaders, I wonder if it has to be Davis? Given is work as Brexit secretary, wouldn't he be ideal to take over immediately?
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ITV showing 66% turnout of 18-24 year olds!0
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Hunt holds. A very dodgy 1-20 winner tbh.0
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Its even on more pro-Labour boundaries than it was in the 1980s.Chameleon said:Con gains Mansfield... somehow.
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Betting bank rising nicely. Thanks to the pb-ers who tipped Labour to win Canterbury at 25/1 and Warwick and Leamington at 14/1.0
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Part of me can barely stop laughing. Despite the popular image, the DUP can e a shrewd set of wheeler dealers.SeanT said:0 -
Good luck to you fighting without support.GeoffM said:
We aren't anyone's to "give away" and we'd fight rather than be occupied.CarlottaVance said:
Gibraltar independence?TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.
This is an obvious potential consequence of your position.0 -
Nah, student loans are working for 99%.SeanT said:
Student loans aren't working. I've seen it too often. People default, loans aren't repaid, students give up.another_richard said:
What's Osborne going to offer ?MaxPB said:Whatever happens, the Cameroons have to be brought back in from the cold. Gove needs a big role and we need Osborne back, maybe he can stand in Maidenhead when Theresa stands down.
Higher student fees ? Higher house prices ? More borrowing to fund vanity projects ?
A new deal is needed. Not Corbyn's free unicorns bollox, but summat.0 -
At the start of this evening, I though the LDs would be half in Scotland.not_on_fire said:
Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinctionrcs1000 said:
But they're more English than I'd expected. Three London seats, Eastbourne, Bath, North Norfolk, and W&L.
East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire are the only Scottish seats so far. Add O&S and Fife NE (where they are apparently ahead by a hundred or so) and you get 12.
Hard to see many more than that. Ceredgion they are apparently behind by a few hundred, ditto Richmond Park.
Argyll & Bute and St Ives are their only realistic gains from here. 12 most likely result, but may be 13,0 -
Reading East to Labour0
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Well done!DecrepitJohnL said:Betting bank rising nicely. Thanks to the pb-ers who tipped Labour to win Canterbury at 25/1 and Warwick and Leamington at 14/1.
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Recount at Ashfield???0
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Jacob Rees-Mogg not aware of where he is ...
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Lab Gain Reading East
Recount at Ashfield0 -
Tories can still get majority.
May will govern and refuse to go.0 -
Closer in Edinburgh West than I'd thought.
Are we back on that nonsense?JosiasJessop said:
Good luck to you fighting without support.GeoffM said:
We aren't anyone's to "give away" and we'd fight rather than be occupied.CarlottaVance said:
Gibraltar independence?TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like we're going to have to give away Gibraltar to Spain to get a good Brexit deal.
This is an obvious potential consequence of your position.0 -
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
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Jacob Rees-Mogg appears detached from reality0
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Until they die of hunger, disease or being shot, snared or poisoned. Foxes do not drift off gently in bed in extreme old age surrounded by hundreds of loving foxy-woxy children and grandchildren.IanB2 said:
Foxes can sleep easy nowPulpstar said:Indeed. WTF Was Fox Hunting doing in the Tory manifesto. Crazy
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The place is not a problem. The century.....JosiasJessop said:Jacob Rees-Mogg not aware of where he is ...
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This election has been completely lost on the dementia tax.0
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How does that compare to your prediction last week?rcs1000 said:
At the start of this evening, I though the LDs would be half in Scotland.not_on_fire said:
Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinctionrcs1000 said:
But they're more English than I'd expected. Three London seats, Eastbourne, Bath, North Norfolk, and W&L.
East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire are the only Scottish seats so far. Add O&S and Fife NE (where they are apparently ahead by a hundred or so) and you get 12.
Hard to see many more than that. Ceredgion they are apparently behind by a few hundred, ditto Richmond Park.
Argyll & Bute and St Ives are their only realistic gains from here. 12 most likely result, but may be 13,0 -
Labour gain a seat in reading omg0
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He could be stopgap PM to work out a deal on what Brexit the Commons wants to go for, while the Tories elect a new leader.williamglenn said:
Ken Clarke's earned it, don't you think?RobD said:
I think the Tory party could appoint anyone as leader.SimonStClare said:
In theory, any government minister could take over as party leader. – er, I think.RobD said:On future leaders, I wonder if it has to be Davis? Given is work as Brexit secretary, wouldn't he be ideal to take over immediately?
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north and leithCasino_Royale said:
N&L? Can't work that out at 4am.Pulpstar said:LOL SNP Hold N&L against the tide.
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Gordon and Wee Eck...rcs1000 said:
At the start of this evening, I though the LDs would be half in Scotland.not_on_fire said:
Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinctionrcs1000 said:
But they're more English than I'd expected. Three London seats, Eastbourne, Bath, North Norfolk, and W&L.
East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire are the only Scottish seats so far. Add O&S and Fife NE (where they are apparently ahead by a hundred or so) and you get 12.
Hard to see many more than that. Ceredgion they are apparently behind by a few hundred, ditto Richmond Park.
Argyll & Bute and St Ives are their only realistic gains from here. 12 most likely result, but may be 13,0 -
Cheltenham Con hold.0
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The statue of May at Dover is going to be 2017's EdStone0
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With Boris as PM going into the next election, it will be a case of hiring scales to weigh the Labour vote, and a microscope to count the Tory's.alex. said:
Still a massive bonus at the next election that the Tories will actually be able to realistically scare their voters with the prospect of a Corbyn government. Hardly sensible to put him in before playing that card!MaxPB said:
No, we haven't lost. We have the most votes and most seats. That not losing. Going into opposition now is terrible idea, there is too much at stake to trust the Corbynite rabble to have their hands on it. Even if it means we take a 1997 style loss in 2022.Bobajob_PB said:
You would be better going into opposition. Seriously.MaxPB said:
No, 320 is the ceiling. I think we'll be on 315 with 10 unionists helping us get a queens speech through.Mortimer said:
Scotland is 4 or 5 better than the exit poll expected, I think.bigjohnowls said:Really cant see how Tories get any better than Exit Poll
321, 322, 323, 324 possible.
You have lost.0 -
I think I said 12.JosiasJessop said:
How does that compare to your prediction last week?rcs1000 said:
At the start of this evening, I though the LDs would be half in Scotland.not_on_fire said:
Anti-SNP tactical voters in Scotland have saved the LDs from near-extinctionrcs1000 said:
But they're more English than I'd expected. Three London seats, Eastbourne, Bath, North Norfolk, and W&L.
East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire are the only Scottish seats so far. Add O&S and Fife NE (where they are apparently ahead by a hundred or so) and you get 12.
Hard to see many more than that. Ceredgion they are apparently behind by a few hundred, ditto Richmond Park.
Argyll & Bute and St Ives are their only realistic gains from here. 12 most likely result, but may be 13,
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Rees Mogg slating Osborne.0
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67th on their target list - they've gained some well past that, but not gained some in the top 10 either.TravelJunkie said:Labour gain a seat in reading omg
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Recount in Ashfield0
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Is he entirely sober ?DavidL said:
The place is not a problem. The century.....JosiasJessop said:Jacob Rees-Mogg not aware of where he is ...
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A baker's dozen of English middle-class seats that the Tories shouldn't have come close to losing tonight.
Madness.0 -
What a chuffin shambles.....self inflicted, hubristic, and inept.0
This discussion has been closed.