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  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Come on. Need to rinse out 5-7 more gains here guys.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Scott_P said:

    @andrewlearmonth: Tories says 700 ahead of Salmond in Gordon

    Hehe.
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    IanB2 said:

    ITV call Witney Tory hold

    BBC Oxford were a bit quick off the mark then
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Casino_Royale said:

    Con hold Witney.

    So it was bullshit.

    Bizarre. 11 looks like right. May be 12, may be 10.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,741
    SeanT said:

    not_on_fire said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    Debates...who needs to do them....
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Eastbourne Stunner of a Lib Dem Gain
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    SeanT said:

    not_on_fire said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    As I posted - its the manifesto's, stupid
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    LDs gain Eastbourne.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    bigjohnowls said:

    This is not the victory speech of a strong and stable leader. It's the speech of someone who tried to destroy the labour movement AND FAILED

    We(well you) shall not, we shall not be moved.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Chameleon said:

    Farron was only safe by 900 votes, wow.

    Excellent value loser
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    The_Apocalypse said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Not Boris.

    If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.

    Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!
    Boris isn't a populist he's a f*cking idiot. This fool doesn't know what the hell he believes. He'd be a disaster for this country.
    Boris is a t****r. His acceptance speech had nothing of any note or relevance to the situation the country faces.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/873003933622521856
  • Bobajob_PB
    Bobajob_PB Posts: 928
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/873003562447642624

    Labour are picking up seats in the suburbs...
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Brexiteers 0 Saboteurs 1 (May og 89)
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,611
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    not_on_fire said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    Debates...who needs to do them....
    Probably individually they don't, but combine them all together....
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Looks like 318?
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Eastbourne goes yellow
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Damn, we lost Eastbourne! I did say it was more vulnerable than Lewes, but I thought it would still be a hold.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    kle4 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    This is not the victory speech of a strong and stable leader. It's the speech of someone who tried to destroy the labour movement AND FAILED

    We(well you) shall not, we shall not be moved.
    SHE HAS PAID WITH HER CAREER
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gloucester: Con hold.
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    not_on_fire said:

    Just had a hilarious realisation. If the Tories only have a majority due to Scottish MPs, won't EVFEL prevent them from passing a lot of legislation?

    :lol:
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    EPG said:

    Eastbourne Stunner of a Lib Dem Gain

    I literally only noticed yesterday it was such a small majority, and wondered why I hadn't seen it mentioned as a potential gain. A returner.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Floater said:

    Eastbourne goes yellow

    What?

    That wasn't on my list.

    PLATO YOU IDIOT
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    kle4 said:

    Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.

    He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?

    Lots of these models seem to have 95%, 99% "almost certain" results that don't come off.

    Have these models massively underestimated the uncertainty/variability?
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited June 2017
    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/871704608669917185
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2017
    numbertwelve said:

    Oliver said:

    Come on Theresa, say strong and stable just for old time's sake.

    I do feel sorry for her. You don't want to get to the highest office in the land only to relinquish it a mere year later... Sadly, she didn't have a leadership campaign proper, and she wasn't shown up as being, well, utterly useless at actually campaigning.
    May, Hillary, Gillard, Royal, sad to say voters do not like earnest, hardbitten women leaders it seems, Merkel the exception but she can be fat and jovial. Thatcher was in the right place at the right time
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Just like February 1974
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Recount in Broxtowe
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @stephenkb: The banter result where Scotland imposes a Tory government on England is on!
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    May deliberately says that the Conservative Party will ensure stability. All references to herself notably absent.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Shocking for Nuttall
  • Chris_A
    Chris_A Posts: 1,237
    Gosh 3308 loonies in Boston.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,741
    JosiasJessop said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.

    He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?

    Has to be a big personal vote and quite right too. One of the good guys.
    So was Clegg. As I've said for ages, the history books will see the coalition very differently from how we saw it in 2015.
    The Coalition was actually very "Strong and Stable" ;-)
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Ave_it said:

    Looks like 318?

    At best. For every great Scottish gain there's needless losses in England.

    Canterbury? Eastbourne? Portsmouth South? FFS!
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Ave_it said:

    Looks like 318?

    318 + 10 DUP = theoretical majority (because of lack of SF) of what, 4-6?

    Amusing times ahead.
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    Razedabode said:

    Next Tory leader needs to be able to debate effectively (now part of elections and expected by the public), offer a positive vision and answer questions straight.

    May found out too easily.

    That and some charisma. Someone who can compete against Corbyn.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Lib Dems gain Kingston and Surbiton
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    The_Apocalypse said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Not Boris.

    If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.

    Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!
    Boris isn't a populist he's a f*cking idiot. This fool doesn't know what the hell he believes. He'd be a disaster for this country.
    Well said, spot on.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    LDs gain Kingston, wow.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LD gain Kingston & Surbiton.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    IanB2 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Not Boris.

    If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.

    Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!
    Boris isn't a populist he's a f*cking idiot. This fool doesn't know what the hell he believes. He'd be a disaster for this country.
    Boris is a t****r. His acceptance speech had nothing of any note or relevance to the situation the country faces.
    This country would never be taken seriously if he became PM. Can't believe he's foreign secretary.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SeanT said:

    not_on_fire said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We know the Tory lead, of some major description, was real by election results. It changed big.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Warwick goes red
  • stjohn
    stjohn Posts: 1,910
    It looks like the Tories will form a minority government. But will May lead it? I've reversed my Boris bets to be PM after the GE but who knows?
  • Bobajob_PB
    Bobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Ave_it said:

    Looks like 318?

    You might be right. How do the Tories now get a majority? Labour are picking up lots of seats in England & Wales. Yes, there is an offset in Scotland. But is there enough?
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    SeanT said:

    not_on_fire said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    People won't vote for a left wing extremist
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    surbiton said:

    Just like February 1974

    Except for the Liberal vote
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Nuttall fails!
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Nuttal comes 3rd snigger
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:

    Eastbourne goes yellow

    What?

    That wasn't on my list.

    PLATO YOU IDIOT
    LOL.

    I hope everyone cashed out of LD under 10...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab gain Warwick & Leamington.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Hahahahahaha

    Paul Nuttall
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    LucyJones said:

    Razedabode said:

    Next Tory leader needs to be able to debate effectively (now part of elections and expected by the public), offer a positive vision and answer questions straight.

    May found out too easily.

    That and some charisma. Someone who can compete against Corbyn.
    Step forward David Ca-

    Oh.....
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:

    Eastbourne goes yellow

    What?

    That wasn't on my list.

    PLATO YOU IDIOT
    An easy Con hold in Lewes but a LibDem gain in Eastbourne ?

    But isn't there a lot of old people with nice houses in Eastbourne ?
  • atia2
    atia2 Posts: 207
    Eastbourne kills the LD<10 bet, which was a great value loser at 5.8 two days ago.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    EPG said:

    Eastbourne Stunner of a Lib Dem Gain

    Not really. Eastbourne swaps frequently just for the hell of it.
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    Lots of SNP majorities paper thin.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Jonathan said:

    https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/871704608669917185

    Yeah....wonder how he feels.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    LD gain Kingston
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/873004399110610945
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Kingston LD Gain
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    AndyJS said:

    LD gain Kingston & Surbiton.

    Given Twickenham, that was always likely.

    Can't see them on less than 12 now.
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    williamglenn said:

    FattyBolger said:

    Better coverage on BBC this GE, fewer wanky graphics

    I just turned over in response to your comment and see Jeremy Vine walking around a virtual reality wanky graphic.
    Yes, apologies
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    The most enjoyable election night I can remember.

    :+1:
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/keirsimmons/status/873004826824769537
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lab maj in Canterbury is 187.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Bobajob_PB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/873003562447642624

    Labour are picking up seats in the suburbs...
    yep, she has put the socially liberal Tory remainers like TSE and ScottP right off.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    LD forecast down to 11
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Just not quite enough seats here.
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    edited June 2017
    Ed Balls's old seat stays tory. How come last time it took until 7am to declare?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    C&W LD hold
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    LDs hold C&W, a good night for them.
  • TravelJunkie
    TravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Lol ed Davey back.

    My life dem canvasser friend was right. Happy for her
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    KentRising said:

    LucyJones said:

    Razedabode said:

    Next Tory leader needs to be able to debate effectively (now part of elections and expected by the public), offer a positive vision and answer questions straight.

    May found out too easily.

    That and some charisma. Someone who can compete against Corbyn.
    Step forward David Ca-

    Oh.....
    The Europhobes have really f*cked up the country.

    It's a shame they'll almost all be abroad to suffer the conequences.
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Brexiteers 0 Saboteurs 1 (May og 89)

    Surely May og 65+?
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SeanT said:

    not_on_fire said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina walk on water.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SNP still forecast to have a majority of Scottishseats. Come on gang, you can do it(damn you perth)
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Feel sorry for Theresa May here. Found wanting. Overpromoted and exposed. It happens. We all reach our limit and she did it very publicly and humiliatingly.

    Sad, but she must now go.

    She got greedy.
    So did I. Now sitting on a nasty spreadbet loss.
    You're not the only one. I think I'm a grand down tonight :(
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @akmaciver: Being told Alex Salmond has DEFINITELY lost. #GE2017
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    kle4 said:

    THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We know the Tory lead, of some major description, was real by election results. It changed big.

    Mostly down to the manifesto. Take you house versus Santa's present list (utterly unaffordable though it is).
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    What was Exit Poll

    Latest forecast 318/267
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    3rd recount in Hastings
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Paristonda said:

    Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.

    No, Tories will have a majority with DUP most likely, send for Boris, go full on populist, end austerity, slash taxes for working families do Brexit but fudged is my advice. Anyway off to bed in a second, becoming pretty clear now where we are headed. Am pleased though the SNP getting a big swing against them though, indeed even a Corbyn Labour gain from the SNP is a Unionist gain for me. Night all
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    LD Stunner of a hold in Carshalton and the oft-forgotten Wallington
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Casino_Royale said:

    Just not quite enough seats here.

    And why is that?
  • midwinter
    midwinter Posts: 1,112
    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    Uni
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/keirsimmons/status/873004826824769537

    Kerching
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Tories slip back in the forecasts. We don't have a viable or stable government at all.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We know the Tory lead, of some major description, was real by election results. It changed big.

    Mostly down to the manifesto. Take you house versus Santa's present list (utterly unaffordable though it is).
    Next campaign is going to be open season on unaffordable freebies.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    DearPB said:

    May speaking of 'we' the Conservatives, not 'I' Theresa May with regard to stability

    Yes, it was noticeable that she talked about how she talked about the Conservative Party seeing Brexit through......
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/873003562447642624

    Did Jezza campaign there?
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Spreads: C316 L267 LD11 SNP 31.5

    No room for error. Corbyn can buy off the LDs with EU sweeties.
  • TravelJunkie
    TravelJunkie Posts: 431
    IanB2 said:

    C&W LD hold

    Was told I was wrong. My of canvass friend said all seats would be he!d or gained in sw London.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/keirsimmons/status/873004826824769537

    A positive then
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,741
    MaxPB said:

    Seriously, how did we lose Canterbury? That's true blue rinse territory.

    Sttttttttttttttttttttttuuuudents...
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    SeanT said:

    not_on_fire said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina walk on water.
    And, of course, the famous Shy Tories
  • EDW20000
    EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Cantab is something I thought could never happen
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    not_on_fire said:

    How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?

    - ICM is the Gold standard
    - Young voters don't turn out
    - UKIP voters will all vote Tory
    - YouGov's seat model was nonsense

    Also: CAMPAIGNS DON'T CHANGE THINGS
    THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    We know the Tory lead, of some major description, was real by election results. It changed big.
    And the local elections just a month before the general!
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Casino_Royale said:

    Con hold Witney.

    Phew!
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