politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May do
Comments
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Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.
He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?0 -
Kudos YouGov. Canterbury Lab0
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Conservatives lose Canterbury and Battersea but gain Dagenham and Middlesborough, astonishing!ThreeQuidder said:Canterbury confirmed. Wowzers. I apologise to YouGov.
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What about Farmer Tom?Lucian_Fletcher said:Despite feeling hollowed out as my party gets a stuffing everywhere, I'm heartened that this is looking like a good election for Unionism in Scotland and NI
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Not resigning then0
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Jonathan said:
when she got the job I remember recalling what Churchill said about Eden, that 'the greatest of his office would find him out'.SeanT said:Feel sorry for Theresa May here. Found wanting. Overpromoted and exposed. It happens. We all reach our limit and she did it very publicly and humiliatingly.
Sad, but she must now go.
I gave her benefit of the doubt over Brexit and thought she was getting it together, but this election campaign has been atrocious.
She has to go I think.0 -
Sorry Mrs May, not your decision0
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How have we lost Canterbury?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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Should we be worried about Clarke then?ThreeQuidder said:Canterbury I think at least in part is due to Brazier reneging on his 2015 promise that it would be his last election.
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Canterbury LAB GAIN0
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Nope. Hoping to cling on. She does know her MPs will brutally murder her tomorrow doesn't she?RochdalePioneers said:She going to resign in her speech?
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Con hold Bolton West0
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Feel sorry for May, but seriously - try writing a manifesto that enthuses and rewards your voters instead of taxing and repelling them.
It's not hard - even Labour under Corbyn managed to do it. Start telling the electorate the bad news AFTER you've won your landslide, not before!0 -
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I could never be a politician. Imagine the biggest self-inflicted f*ck-up of your entire life being witnessed by the whole country and then being written about and analysed for years or even decades to come.williamglenn said:May looks broken.
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Con hold Bolton West, good result for them.0
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They'll have a majority of English MPs.not_on_fire said:Just had a hilarious realisation. If the Tories only have a majority due to Scottish MPs, won't EVFEL prevent them from passing a lot of legislation?
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I can but hope....BenedictWhite said:
This election is really rather odd. I wonder if there will be enough to make up for the loses?Scott_P said:@PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Conservatives GAIN Middlesbrough South despite their concerns. A surprise given other results here. #GE2017
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Voice cracking,,,,,shame but not up to it...0
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Yes but going from a majority to a minority like the tories is a recipe for a landslide 2022 defeat.alex. said:
Er, a minority Govt is the only viable govt.Paristonda said:Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.
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May sounds like she's about to cry.0
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They didn't gain Dagenham.HYUFD said:
Conservatives lose Canterbury and Battersea but gain Dagenham and Middlesborough, astonishing!ThreeQuidder said:Canterbury confirmed. Wowzers. I apologise to YouGov.
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So, LDs on 5.
Plus...
Edinburgh West
Orkney & Shetland
for sure
Seven is the minimum the LDs.
Plus some of...
Kingston & Surbiton
Carshalton
Ceridgion
CS&ER
RC&S
A&B
Fife NE
11?0 -
@MattChorley: May: "It will be incumbent on us to have that period of stability"
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah0 -
Got to get up for work at 7, so signing off.
Listening to Mrs May, losing the will to stay awake anyway.
With many thanks to Mr Herdson, for prompting me to multiply my minority govt bets last night.0 -
No. They have lost. They went to the country and asked Who Governs?alex. said:
Er, a minority Govt is the only viable govt.Paristonda said:Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.
The country said: "Not you."
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She seems to be wishing for a result she didn't get0
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Interesting she's saying "we" ran this campaign now rather than "I"0
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She's so uninspiring the result can hardly be surprising.0
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I was completely wrong on this but have to say Brazier going is a plus.IanB2 said:Kudos YouGov. Canterbury Lab
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Maybe not.0
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What a wild election.
Winners: YouGov, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson.0 -
Theresa May. The Peter Principle made flesh0
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Warrington North is held by Labour.0
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Tears in her voice .... she is clearly shakenCasino_Royale said:
Yep.SeanT said:
My god. Her face. That's a woman who is resigning tomorrow. Wow.GideonWise said:May looks like she's aged 10-years in a night.
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Has to be a big personal vote and quite right too. One of the good guys.kle4 said:Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.
He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?0 -
What an idiot, pointless election and flung everything away0
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May. Always.atia2 said:Who sounds more Prime Ministerial? Theresa May or "Jezbollah"?
Although it's a bit like choosing between syphilis and gonorrhoea.
She sounds broken.0 -
How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?
- ICM is the Gold standard
- Young voters don't turn out
- UKIP voters will all vote Tory
- YouGov's seat model was nonsense0 -
Yep - if Labour keep the discipline they've shown in this campaign, unless there's a great Brexit (which was always impossible - there would have been some level of pain no matter what), the Tories are out by a lot in 5 years.Paristonda said:
Yes but going from a majority to a minority like the tories is a recipe for a landslide 2022 defeat.alex. said:
Er, a minority Govt is the only viable govt.Paristonda said:Tories have lost. Clinging on with a minority government would be a mistake. Accept defeat after 7 years in power.
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May speaking of 'we' the Conservatives, not 'I' Theresa May with regard to stability0
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No because it would be a much clearer majority in EVFEL.not_on_fire said:Just had a hilarious realisation. If the Tories only have a majority due to Scottish MPs, won't EVFEL prevent them from passing a lot of legislation?
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Farron survives0
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Penistone very close but Labour survives 45 to 43%0
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Just like the europhobes.asjohnstone said:What an idiot, pointless election and flung everything away
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Lab gain Portsmouth South from third place.0
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More good news for the LDsCarolus_Rex said:Farron survives
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Good to see Labour win Portsmouth South.0
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The most enjoyable election night I can remember.0
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Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!The_Apocalypse said:Not Boris.
If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.0 -
Not sure about Edinburgh West any more.rcs1000 said:So, LDs on 5.
Plus...
Edinburgh West
Orkney & Shetland
for sure
Seven is the minimum the LDs.
Plus some of...
Kingston & Surbiton
Carshalton
Ceridgion
CS&ER
RC&S
A&B
Fife NE
11?0 -
Yep.asjohnstone said:What an idiot, pointless election and flung everything away
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Norfolk North
LD hold0 -
Good to see LD win Eastbourne!0
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Scotland is saving the Tories!!!!!0
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This is not the victory speech of a strong and stable leader. It's the speech of someone who tried to destroy the labour movement AND FAILED0
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Yup. Apparently the Lib Dems built up a lot of intelligence from the by election.rcs1000 said:
And is Witney genuine?rcs1000 said:So, LDs on 5.
Plus...
Edinburgh West
Orkney & Shetland
for sure
Seven is the minimum the LDs.
Plus some of...
Kingston & Surbiton
Carshalton
Ceridgion
CS&ER
RC&S
A&B
Fife NE
11?
Plus it was the way of Witney Tories flicking the finger to Mrs May and wanting Dave back0 -
@BBCPhilipSim: Labour GAIN Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill from the SNP.0
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She'll be rightly pushed out. Losing to Corbyn is unforgivable.Big_G_NorthWales said:Not resigning then
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Your second most likely LD seatAlastairMeeks said:
Not sure about Edinburgh West any more.rcs1000 said:So, LDs on 5.
Plus...
Edinburgh West
Orkney & Shetland
for sure
Seven is the minimum the LDs.
Plus some of...
Kingston & Surbiton
Carshalton
Ceridgion
CS&ER
RC&S
A&B
Fife NE
11?
? 0 -
new BBC forecast
Cons 318, still just about enough with DUP
Lab 276
SNP 32
LD 11
PC 3
Grn 1
Others 18
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Con hold Witney.0
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You have to pay me a royalty fee to use "Jezbollah".....atia2 said:Who sounds more Prime Ministerial? Theresa May or "Jezbollah"?
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I think a few more years in Scotland to refine her policy stances and then look to get a seat in Westminster. That's assuming she has real political ambition, I don't know if she wants it.KentRising said:Can we just step back a moment and admire the Ruth surge in Scotland?
Wow.0 -
It is quite extraordinary.The_Apocalypse said:Scotland is saving the Tories!!!!!
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Better coverage on BBC this GE, fewer wanky graphics0
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Emma LITTLE PENGELLY (Democratic Unionist).Pulpstar said:
Who won Belfast South >?EPG said:SDLP wiped out by 2 SF and 1 DUP. The great balancing act ends. Not easy to see a way back.
18 NI is 10 DUP 6/7 SF 1 Independent 1/0 UUP
It's probably #1 target for tactical voting next time as at least 3 of parties 2-5 will want to get rid of her.0 -
Yep. @david_herdson proved right.Nigelb said:Got to get up for work at 7, so signing off.
Listening to Mrs May, losing the will to stay awake anyway.
With many thanks to Mr Herdson, for prompting me to multiply my minority govt bets last night.0 -
Harrow West
Lab 60.8
Con 34.4
Ouch0 -
So was Clegg. As I've said for ages, the history books will see the coalition very differently from how we saw it in 2015.FrancisUrquhart said:
Has to be a big personal vote and quite right too. One of the good guys.kle4 said:Many models has Lamb down as a 95+% probable loss.
He may be the ultimate survivor of the LDs - Clegg and Mulholland did not survive, Williams might not, Pugh didn't stand again to see, Farron isn't safe, has Brake lost yet?0 -
At least she isn't likely to be kicked out of her house in the morning like Brown, kids in tow! (I guess he had a few days to pack)LucyJones said:
I could never be a politician. Imagine the biggest self-inflicted f*ck-up of your entire life being witnessed by the whole country and then being written about and analysed for years or even decades to come.williamglenn said:May looks broken.
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Tories 318 now
Ouch!0 -
I would rather have a slim majority including quite a few Scottish Tories, than the 2015 situation.0
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Confirmed DUP gain in South Belfast and just over 1200 in the bank.
I'm not going to lie, as a Conservative I'd have liked a good Conservative majority but I will have great joy watching Snowflakes over there as they consider the possibility that the DUP could be the kingmakers and they fall back on lazy outdated talk..0 -
Absolutely utterly completely every single one of them. Now on to Boris.not_on_fire said:How many PB Myths have been sunk by this election?
- ICM is the Gold standard
- Young voters don't turn out
- UKIP voters will all vote Tory
- YouGov's seat model was nonsense0 -
LDs now confirmed on 6 on BBC0
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Tim carton holds 0
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why?Sunil_Prasannan said:I would rather have a slim majority including quite a few Scottish Tories, than the 2015 situation.
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Farron was only safe by 900 votes, wow.0
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Tim Farron backs dictatorships.0
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I'm hopeful but we haven't even had West Tyrone declared yet and I could have told you who won that the day the election was calledY0kel said:
What about Farmer Tom?Lucian_Fletcher said:Despite feeling hollowed out as my party gets a stuffing everywhere, I'm heartened that this is looking like a good election for Unionism in Scotland and NI
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What was the YouGov model position on LD?
Hey, it's more than at the start!Beverley_C said:Tories 318 now
Ouch!0 -
@andrewlearmonth: Tories says 700 ahead of Salmond in Gordon0
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And no pointless map outside Broadcasting House with lots of hexagons...FattyBolger said:Better coverage on BBC this GE, fewer wanky graphics
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Boris isn't a populist he's a f*cking idiot. This fool doesn't know what the hell he believes. He'd be a disaster for this country.HYUFD said:
Yes, well Boris is the populist we need I am afraid. Labour have gone populist under Corbyn and gained a swing to them, we need to get an even better populist and that is Boris. So it will be Brexit but perhaps slightly fudged, austerity ended and taxes slashed, gateaux for all to trump Corbyn's icecreams for all!The_Apocalypse said:Not Boris.
If Boris become PM, I'm going to join the Labour party, and vote Labour in the next local election, and GE. I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than HIM.0 -
ITV call Witney Tory hold0
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Next Tory leader needs to be able to debate effectively (now part of elections and expected by the public), offer a positive vision and answer questions straight.
May found out too easily.0 -
@andyinverness: Liberal democrat Jamie stone says it is "looking good" for him in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross0
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I just turned over in response to your comment and see Jeremy Vine walking around a virtual reality wanky graphic.FattyBolger said:Better coverage on BBC this GE, fewer wanky graphics
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