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Wow .Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.0 -
I was right on turnout, at least!0
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Does the Exit poll say the Tories will lose Swindon South?0
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This is going to be a very long night indeed.0
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It really wasn't, it was the giveaway manifesto of Corbo.MaxPB said:
It was the house thieving policy that did it.foxinsoxuk said:
As I said they may do...MaxPB said:
Yes all of those Lab -> UKIP voters are swing back to Labour instead of the Tories.MarqueeMark said:Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems
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Battersea next interesting seat0
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All the TV channels have missed the Washington & Sunderland West declaration.0
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I voted ukip in 2015 voters leave. I would never vote for may because she was home secretary and immigration went up and she voted remain.0
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Never!Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.0 -
Hard Brexit off the tablewilliamglenn said:
Brexit, in the form of a well-prepared Article 50 position from the EU27, is an express freight train that will destroy the tactical positioning of both of the major parties.kle4 said:
Why? Labour support Brexit!!Bobajob_PB said:
Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.The_Apocalypse said:BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.
Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.
Brexit could be dead.0 -
Bed wetting index has crashed0
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Arfon - close between Labour and Plaid0
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i picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue0
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Swindon turnout up by 4%0
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NEW THREAD
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And thanks to the Tories they are all £27k in debtnunu said:Remember the number of Uni students has grown hugely over the years, they are spread out across the country, not just traditional Uni seats.
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Imperial CollegeScott_P said:@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.0 -
Exactly. This place is so dramatic.murali_s said:
Calm down dear - still a long way to go...Casino_Royale said:
F*cking idiots.MarqueeMark said:Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems
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Turnout is up in England. People who bought at 63% looking happy I think.-1
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35 million is a very small sample, I don't think this poll is correct.0
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No such constituency. Chelsea and Fulham is safe C, Kensington has some big L areas & is Remainy.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.0 -
Libs claiming Kingston won and Twickenham.0
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The next general election is going to be fascinating. Will Con revert to party of the middle class, or be a party of Brexit?0
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That's Kensington, not Chelsea and FulhamWhisperingOracle said:
Wow .Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.0 -
It's a bit of a different seat now, been split into 'Kensington and Chelsea' & 'Fulham'SeanT said:
A joke. Surely?????WhisperingOracle said:
Wow .Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.0 -
Dimbleby isn't the talented anchor he once was or perhaps he's a disappointed Tory? He's all but growling0
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NOM just favourite.0
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Washington & Sunderland West:
Lab +5.8%
Con +10.0%
UKIP -12.8%
LD -0.3%
Greens -1.7%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140010200 -
There isn't a Kensington & Chelsea constituency anymore in any case.Bobajob_PB said:
Never!Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.
Labour gain Kensington might be possible though.
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Andy JS....you are a fucking legend....I fucking love your spreadsheetfoxinsoxuk said:
Is Swindon North particularly a student town?Prodicus said:
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Sunderland West
Lab +5.8
Con +10
Majority: 31.9%0 -
Holy shit
Holy shit. My friend James torrence is an independent. Hope he does well.Bobajob_PB said:
Never!Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.0 -
NOM looks like free money.
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If I were forced to guess right now, I'd say Jeremy Corbyn is forming the next government.0
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NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
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So did ISeanT said:
That manifesto. My god. You and I spotted it immediately on here, when the PB Tories were chortling, confidently. Halfwits.MaxPB said:
Yes all of those Lab -> UKIP voters are swing back to Labour instead of the Tories.MarqueeMark said:Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems
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Don't think its those - its Brexit and the rightward shift that are to blame.SeanT said:Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology
The Tory tactic was that they could afford to loose centrists because they would gain loads more UKIP and WWC Labour voters in the midlands and North East. So far they are not gaining enough of those demographics to actually win any seats.0 -
Betfair crossover Tory maj vs hung after that swindon shocker0
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Based on Swindon North?another_richard said:NOM looks like free money.
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Theresa de Villars in massive trouble in chipping barnet0
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There isn't a constituency called Kensington and ChelseaBobajob_PB said:
Never!Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.0 -
Swindon North was just off the Labour target list.tyson said:
Andy JS....you are a fucking legend....I fucking love your spreadsheetfoxinsoxuk said:
Is Swindon North particularly a student town?Prodicus said:0 -
Paddy Power Evens Con OM0
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Sunderland West
2% swing from Labour to Tories0 -
The bedwetters joke doesn't have the same ring to it now.0
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Just spoken to a source at the Broxtowe count - says it's very close, Tories looking shocked, but Labour not yet claiming victory.0
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The Tories have put their party before the country. Two huge gambles: first EU16, to settle an internal dispute; then GE17, naked opportunism to increase their majority. And they've lost both times. Party before country, always.0
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Crossover on NOM on bet fair......go Saint Jeremiah of Islington0
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That plus the vote uk forum rumours.AndyJS said:
Based on Swindon North?another_richard said:NOM looks like free money.
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Surely with these UKIP swings, Con should still be able to pick up some seats in places like the Potteries.0
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No to UKIP.Pulpstar said:
To Labour ?oxfordsimon said:Hearing that Clegg has lost in Hallam (well-placed LD reliable source)
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One pretty clear picture is that the Tories are only doing well where UKIP has a big share and collapses.0
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Nick...I am so sorry to have been so down on St Jeremiah....can I repent...is it too late?NickPalmer said:Just spoken to a source at the Broxtowe count - says it's very close, Tories looking shocked, but Labour not yet claiming victory.
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Any news from Vauxhall? Have the vintage stuff ready to open.0
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No, it was the turning point. You are and were completely blind to how toxic it is for us to suggest that the homes people have worked hard for over their whole lives are going to be confiscated because the person dared to fall ill.Mortimer said:
It really wasn't, it was the giveaway manifesto of Corbo.MaxPB said:
It was the house thieving policy that did it.foxinsoxuk said:
As I said they may do...MaxPB said:
Yes all of those Lab -> UKIP voters are swing back to Labour instead of the Tories.MarqueeMark said:Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems
It is a complete disaster policy it was spotted immediately by those of us in the Cameroon camp, but not your lot and you still deny the reality even though there is hard evidence of the Lab -> UKIP voters aren't turning out for us in places where homes have high values.0 -
In Swindon North the UKIP collapse mainly went to Labour.NickPalmer said:One pretty clear picture is that the Tories are only doing well where UKIP has a big share and collapses.
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I'd agree with that. Although it really would be "slightly".AndyJS said:If we were just looking at the results and didn't have an exit poll we'd probably be expecting a slightly increased Tory majority.
Hypothesis. After all this kerfuffle, the net seat change on 2015 is...very little?0 -
Indeed but May will still probably be in about the same position as Cameron 2015, maybe a little better and if the Tories now go for soft Brexit under say Hammond they then risk losing voters to UKIP so whichever way the Tories went post Brexit they would lose some voters. Hard Brexit they lose centrists but gain UKIP, soft Brexit they regain centrists but lose voters back to UKIPJonathanD said:
Don't think its those - its Brexit and the rightward shift that are to blame.SeanT said:Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology
The Tory tactic was that they could afford to loose centrists because they would gain loads more UKIP and WWC Labour voters in the midlands and North East. So far they are not gaining enough of those demographics to actually win any seats.
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If the SNP use confidence and supply to Labour, Brexit is dead. Much to many MP's pleasure.kle4 said:
Why? Labour support Brexit!!Bobajob_PB said:
Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.The_Apocalypse said:BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.
Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.
Brexit could be dead.0 -
Tory fuckups:
Dementia tax
WFA
These two have annoyed the oldies
And these two have annoyed the under 30s (and their parents):
Increasing student fees
Unaffordable housing0 -
Careful about reading these results so far. The constituency I am in had a double figure Conservative majority in 2015. Campaign teams went to a neighbouring constituency. Watch the swing away from Conservatives holding the seat in this constituency and the doom and gloom – and then we win the seat next door0
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It was not that which lost it, it was social care and losing Remain Tories but social care has to be paid for somehow whatever voters think and if the Tories go soft Brexit they risk losing Remain voters tooSeanT said:
What fucking rightward shift? That was the most left wing manifesto I can remember from a Tory PM. Energy caps, racial audits. UGH, and she's lost on it. Stupid grimacing weirdo robot. Get rid.JonathanD said:
Don't think its those - its Brexit and the rightward shift that are to blame.SeanT said:Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology
The Tory tactic was that they could afford to loose centrists because they would gain loads more UKIP and WWC Labour voters in the midlands and North East. So far they are not gaining enough of those demographics to actually win any seats.0 -
Tearing foxes up with hounds I would suggest was hardly a good start...silly fucking mistake.....another_richard said:Tory fuckups:
Dementia tax
WFA
These two have annoyed the oldies
And these two have annoyed the under 30s (and their parents):
Increasing student fees
Unaffordable housing
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Just had an email from the Tories asking me to vote. Bit late chaps.0
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I agree with that as well. I'm in an ecumenical mood.AlastairMeeks said:So far the YouGov model is looking spookily accurate.
But right now we're wibbling at the margin. The outcomes are a) small Con overall majority, b) Con plurality, or c) there is no option c.0 -
I wrote that before Swindon North.viewcode said:
I'd agree with that. Although it really would be "slightly".AndyJS said:If we were just looking at the results and didn't have an exit poll we'd probably be expecting a slightly increased Tory majority.
Hypothesis. After all this kerfuffle, the net seat change on 2015 is...very little?0 -
Indeed. That was part of the problem. And the presidential nature. And avoiding TV debates. And WFA and Social Care. Arrogance. But, all politicians are the same.SeanT said:
What fucking rightward shift? That was the most left wing manifesto I can remember from a Tory PM. Energy caps, racial audits. UGH, and she's lost on it. Stupid grimacing weirdo robot. Get rid.JonathanD said:
Don't think its those - its Brexit and the rightward shift that are to blame.SeanT said:Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology
The Tory tactic was that they could afford to loose centrists because they would gain loads more UKIP and WWC Labour voters in the midlands and North East. So far they are not gaining enough of those demographics to actually win any seats.0 -
Cons dont give a fuck about homeless, mistake.0
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Gosh, Emily Thornberry really is posh!
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Newcastle North:
Con +6k
Lab +6k
Very little swing, slight swing to the Tories.0 -
You should have stood againNickPalmer said:Just spoken to a source at the Broxtowe count - says it's very close, Tories looking shocked, but Labour not yet claiming victory.
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Clarke for Tory leader? Wish I'd voted for him in 2001!0
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Another area the Tories failed was to drag Labour into hard Brexit with them. Labour have hoovered up the remain vote while outwardly supporting hard Brexit.0
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Should also have said that a Tory minority government will not be able to do anything, A minority Labour government with C&S will not be able to do anything. Look for another GE in the autumn.OchEye said:
If the SNP use confidence and supply to Labour, Brexit is dead. Much to many MP's pleasure.kle4 said:
Why? Labour support Brexit!!Bobajob_PB said:
Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.The_Apocalypse said:BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.
Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.
Brexit could be dead.
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Bless you my childtyson said:
Nick...I am so sorry to have been so down on St Jeremiah....can I repent...is it too late?NickPalmer said:Just spoken to a source at the Broxtowe count - says it's very close, Tories looking shocked, but Labour not yet claiming victory.
I met some anti-Corbyn voters, but it's fair to say I met quite a few who said he was the politician they'd been waiting for all their lives.0 -
If that's the case, you can thank useless Scottish Labour for aiding and abetting her.TheScreamingEagles said:Ruth Davidson might be the only thing stopping Prime Jeremy Corbyn from happening.
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What happened in Swindon North? Good for Con, bad for Con?AndyJS said:
I wrote that before Swindon North.viewcode said:
I'd agree with that. Although it really would be "slightly".AndyJS said:If we were just looking at the results and didn't have an exit poll we'd probably be expecting a slightly increased Tory majority.
Hypothesis. After all this kerfuffle, the net seat change on 2015 is...very little?0 -
Am I right in thinking the exit poll is predicting a higher Labour share of the vote?0
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Exit poll out by a 6% swing to Tories on first 8 results.
Tories to lose some remain seats but gain leave seats.0 -
Yes, currently broadly Labour are underperforming but it is too early to tell.not_on_fire said:Am I right in thinking the exit poll is predicting a higher Labour share of the vote?
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May ruined, Bojo dead cert alert0
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Boris ready to jump in. I assume he is having curry with political friendsEDW20000 said:May ruined, Bojo dead cert alert
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He will not hesitate this time.socialliberal said:
Boris ready to jump in. I assume he is having curry with political friendsEDW20000 said:May ruined, Bojo dead cert alert
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"every mile you go further north, the better it is for the Tories" - never thought I'd hear that!0
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Who else could it be?EDW20000 said:
He will not hesitate this time.socialliberal said:
Boris ready to jump in. I assume he is having curry with political friendsEDW20000 said:May ruined, Bojo dead cert alert
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Indeed. He was ready two weeks ago.EDW20000 said:
He will not hesitate this time.socialliberal said:
Boris ready to jump in. I assume he is having curry with political friendsEDW20000 said:May ruined, Bojo dead cert alert
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UKIP to call in the official receiver0
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How many Lab seats in Scot?0
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If Labour get a higher share of the vote but finish 50 seats behind the Tories it could be curtains for FPTP as well..BenedictWhite said:
Yes, currently broadly Labour are underperforming but it is too early to tell.not_on_fire said:Am I right in thinking the exit poll is predicting a higher Labour share of the vote?
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Tories stacking up votes in northern Labour strongholds where it doesn't matter?HYUFD said:Sunderland West
2% swing from Labour to Tories
We need Midlands seats. You might do well there.0 -
Ruth Davidson as Deputy Leader?socialliberal said:
Indeed. He was ready two weeks ago.EDW20000 said:
He will not hesitate this time.socialliberal said:
Boris ready to jump in. I assume he is having curry with political friendsEDW20000 said:May ruined, Bojo dead cert alert
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Fascinating to watch Osborne on ITV. Wonder if he regrets standing down?0
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NickPalmer said:
One pretty clear picture is that the Tories are only doing well where UKIP has a big share and collapses.
You could have been an MP again Nick! But you earn much more doing what you are doing now sir0 -
Quiet in here. So wonderfully, wonderfully quiet.0
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Does anyone know why the BBC is so pants?0
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Corbyn should be leader in a BROAD CHURCH shadow cabinet. He is a GREAT campaigner.NickPalmer said:
Bless you my childtyson said:
Nick...I am so sorry to have been so down on St Jeremiah....can I repent...is it too late?NickPalmer said:Just spoken to a source at the Broxtowe count - says it's very close, Tories looking shocked, but Labour not yet claiming victory.
I met some anti-Corbyn voters, but it's fair to say I met quite a few who said he was the politician they'd been waiting for all their lives.
I was wrong. Wrong.0 -
not_on_fire said:
Fascinating to watch Osborne on ITV. Wonder if he regrets standing down?
If Balls and Ozzy ran the government together we'd all be better off.
That these two guys are outside the HoC is a joke.0 -
That was his instinct. Then they all quit to topple him, exactly like some were saying they would befoe he even was elected. Little he could do against that imo.Bobajob_PB said:
Corbyn should be leader in a BROAD CHURCH shadow cabinet. He is a GREAT campaigner.NickPalmer said:
Bless you my childtyson said:
Nick...I am so sorry to have been so down on St Jeremiah....can I repent...is it too late?NickPalmer said:Just spoken to a source at the Broxtowe count - says it's very close, Tories looking shocked, but Labour not yet claiming victory.
I met some anti-Corbyn voters, but it's fair to say I met quite a few who said he was the politician they'd been waiting for all their lives.
I was wrong. Wrong.0