@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.
Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.
Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.
Brexit could be dead.
Why? Labour support Brexit!!
Brexit, in the form of a well-prepared Article 50 position from the EU27, is an express freight train that will destroy the tactical positioning of both of the major parties.
@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
No such constituency. Chelsea and Fulham is safe C, Kensington has some big L areas & is Remainy.
@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
Wow .
A joke. Surely?????
It's a bit of a different seat now, been split into 'Kensington and Chelsea' & 'Fulham'
@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
Never!
There isn't a Kensington & Chelsea constituency anymore in any case.
@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
Never!
Holy shit. My friend James torrence is an independent. Hope he does well.
Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology
Don't think its those - its Brexit and the rightward shift that are to blame.
The Tory tactic was that they could afford to loose centrists because they would gain loads more UKIP and WWC Labour voters in the midlands and North East. So far they are not gaining enough of those demographics to actually win any seats.
@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
Never!
There isn't a constituency called Kensington and Chelsea
The Tories have put their party before the country. Two huge gambles: first EU16, to settle an internal dispute; then GE17, naked opportunism to increase their majority. And they've lost both times. Party before country, always.
Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems
Yes all of those Lab -> UKIP voters are swing back to Labour instead of the Tories.
As I said they may do...
It was the house thieving policy that did it.
It really wasn't, it was the giveaway manifesto of Corbo.
No, it was the turning point. You are and were completely blind to how toxic it is for us to suggest that the homes people have worked hard for over their whole lives are going to be confiscated because the person dared to fall ill.
It is a complete disaster policy it was spotted immediately by those of us in the Cameroon camp, but not your lot and you still deny the reality even though there is hard evidence of the Lab -> UKIP voters aren't turning out for us in places where homes have high values.
Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology
Don't think its those - its Brexit and the rightward shift that are to blame.
The Tory tactic was that they could afford to loose centrists because they would gain loads more UKIP and WWC Labour voters in the midlands and North East. So far they are not gaining enough of those demographics to actually win any seats.
Indeed but May will still probably be in about the same position as Cameron 2015, maybe a little better and if the Tories now go for soft Brexit under say Hammond they then risk losing voters to UKIP so whichever way the Tories went post Brexit they would lose some voters. Hard Brexit they lose centrists but gain UKIP, soft Brexit they regain centrists but lose voters back to UKIP
Careful about reading these results so far. The constituency I am in had a double figure Conservative majority in 2015. Campaign teams went to a neighbouring constituency. Watch the swing away from Conservatives holding the seat in this constituency and the doom and gloom – and then we win the seat next door
Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology
Don't think its those - its Brexit and the rightward shift that are to blame.
The Tory tactic was that they could afford to loose centrists because they would gain loads more UKIP and WWC Labour voters in the midlands and North East. So far they are not gaining enough of those demographics to actually win any seats.
What fucking rightward shift? That was the most left wing manifesto I can remember from a Tory PM. Energy caps, racial audits. UGH, and she's lost on it. Stupid grimacing weirdo robot. Get rid.
It was not that which lost it, it was social care and losing Remain Tories but social care has to be paid for somehow whatever voters think and if the Tories go soft Brexit they risk losing Remain voters too
Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology
Don't think its those - its Brexit and the rightward shift that are to blame.
The Tory tactic was that they could afford to loose centrists because they would gain loads more UKIP and WWC Labour voters in the midlands and North East. So far they are not gaining enough of those demographics to actually win any seats.
What fucking rightward shift? That was the most left wing manifesto I can remember from a Tory PM. Energy caps, racial audits. UGH, and she's lost on it. Stupid grimacing weirdo robot. Get rid.
Indeed. That was part of the problem. And the presidential nature. And avoiding TV debates. And WFA and Social Care. Arrogance. But, all politicians are the same.
The Tories have put their party before the country. Two huge gambles: first EU16, to settle an internal dispute; then GE17, naked opportunism to increase their majority. And they've lost both times. Party before country, always.
Another area the Tories failed was to drag Labour into hard Brexit with them. Labour have hoovered up the remain vote while outwardly supporting hard Brexit.
BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.
Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.
Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.
Brexit could be dead.
Why? Labour support Brexit!!
If the SNP use confidence and supply to Labour, Brexit is dead. Much to many MP's pleasure.
Should also have said that a Tory minority government will not be able to do anything, A minority Labour government with C&S will not be able to do anything. Look for another GE in the autumn.
Just spoken to a source at the Broxtowe count - says it's very close, Tories looking shocked, but Labour not yet claiming victory.
Nick...I am so sorry to have been so down on St Jeremiah....can I repent...is it too late?
Bless you my child
I met some anti-Corbyn voters, but it's fair to say I met quite a few who said he was the politician they'd been waiting for all their lives.
Corbyn should be leader in a BROAD CHURCH shadow cabinet. He is a GREAT campaigner.
I was wrong. Wrong.
That was his instinct. Then they all quit to topple him, exactly like some were saying they would befoe he even was elected. Little he could do against that imo.
Comments
NEW THREAD
Lab +5.8%
Con +10.0%
UKIP -12.8%
LD -0.3%
Greens -1.7%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001020
Labour gain Kensington might be possible though.
Lab +5.8
Con +10
Majority: 31.9%
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
The Tory tactic was that they could afford to loose centrists because they would gain loads more UKIP and WWC Labour voters in the midlands and North East. So far they are not gaining enough of those demographics to actually win any seats.
2% swing from Labour to Tories
It is a complete disaster policy it was spotted immediately by those of us in the Cameroon camp, but not your lot and you still deny the reality even though there is hard evidence of the Lab -> UKIP voters aren't turning out for us in places where homes have high values.
Hypothesis. After all this kerfuffle, the net seat change on 2015 is...very little?
Dementia tax
WFA
These two have annoyed the oldies
And these two have annoyed the under 30s (and their parents):
Increasing student fees
Unaffordable housing
But right now we're wibbling at the margin. The outcomes are a) small Con overall majority, b) Con plurality, or c) there is no option c.
Con +6k
Lab +6k
Very little swing, slight swing to the Tories.
I met some anti-Corbyn voters, but it's fair to say I met quite a few who said he was the politician they'd been waiting for all their lives.
Tories to lose some remain seats but gain leave seats.
We need Midlands seats. You might do well there.
You could have been an MP again Nick! But you earn much more doing what you are doing now sir
I was wrong. Wrong.
If Balls and Ozzy ran the government together we'd all be better off.
That these two guys are outside the HoC is a joke.