Why don't we do exit polls the way that the French do?
The estimate given at 8pm in France is not an exit-poll, it includes actual results But the system is totally different: all polling stations close at 7 pm and counting is much faster as it is done in each polling station (in most small places counting is done in less than an hour).
You can see they are getting more and more nervous about this exit poll. I strongly suspect its because of their assumptions about the postals swinging the same as on the day voters. Tories will end up with 330. Which is pretty pathetic really.
It hasn't declared. ITV are the only channel to call seats before they're declared if they're sure of the result. Sometimes goes wrong, like Edinburgh South in 2010.
On the accuracy of the exit poll and the swing to and from the Conservatives in individual seats.
The key is the UKIP vote share in 2015
Above the national share (plus a bit) the seat should swing to the Conservatives; below it should swing to Labour
Newcastle Central had 15% UKIP in 2015, which is slightly above the English national share of 14% and saw a small swing to Labour; Sunderland South had 21% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives. Sunderland Central had 20% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives.
The exit poll looks good so far. May change later of course.
So if UKIP are keeping only a quarter of their vote with one quarter going to Labour and half to Tories and the rest is mimimal churn, then Tories get 43% and Labour 33% which should be a decent Tory majority as long as they aren't too inefficient (can imagine a lot of 60%+ Tory share rural seats).
If Salmond is going to lose Gordon, who does he lose it to? (Genuine question.)
Ruth
Exit poll say LDs
Unlikely.
Here are the exit poll toss ups
Aberdeen South, the Conservatives have a 63% chance of victory, Labour has a 11% chance of victory, the SNP has a 26% chance of victory Airdrie & Shotts, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 77% chance of victory Argyll & Bute, the Conservatives have a 4% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 36% chance of victory, the SNP has a 60% chance of victory Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, the Conservatives have a 35% chance of victory, Labour has a 1% chance of victory, the SNP has a 64% chance of victory Banff & Buchan, the Conservatives have a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory East Lothian, the Conservatives have a 24% chance of victory, Labour has a 55% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory Edinburgh East, Labour has a 49% chance of victory, the SNP has a 51% chance of victory Edinburgh South West, the Conservatives have a 37% chance of victory, Labour has a 27% chance of victory, the SNP has a 36% chance of victory Fife North East, the Conservatives have a 7% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 73% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory Glasgow Central, Labour has a 59% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory Gordon, the Liberal Democrats have a 51% chance of victory, the SNP has a 49% chance of victory Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, the Liberal Democrats have a 48% chance of victory, the SNP has a 52% chance of victory Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Labour has a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory Lanark & Hamilton East, the Conservatives have a 5% chance of victory, Labour has a 16% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory Ochil & Perthshire South, the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Labour has a 21% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Labour has a 54% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory Renfrewshire East, the Conservatives have a 32% chance of victory, Labour has a 58% chance of victory, the SNP has a 10% chance of victory Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Labour has a 41% chance of victory, the SNP has a 59% chance of victory Stirling, the Conservatives have a 56% chance of victory, Labour has a 3% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory
That's Kellner's excuse. It is an important point, surely, that a lot of postal votes were cast before Labour reached the heights of its surge. The exit poll takes 2015 postal vote performance into account, but there wasn't such a surge then.
Exit poll may be overestimating Labour’s performance in election, first two results suggest Voters don't appear to have switched to Labour as much as pollsters had predicted
On the accuracy of the exit poll and the swing to and from the Conservatives in individual seats.
The key is the UKIP vote share in 2015
Above the national share (plus a bit) the seat should swing to the Conservatives; below it should swing to Labour
Newcastle Central had 15% UKIP in 2015, which is slightly above the English national share of 14% and saw a small swing to Labour; Sunderland South had 21% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives. Sunderland Central had 20% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives.
The exit poll looks good so far. May change later of course.
I agree, Labour (and LD) will do better in less kippery seats.
Comments
But the system is totally different: all polling stations close at 7 pm and counting is much faster as it is done in each polling station (in most small places counting is done in less than an hour).
We will legislate to ensure that a form of identifcation must be presented before voting, to reform postal voting...
Perhaps they meant to reform it to be mandatory for 65+, and to be handed in the first week, before the campaign goes bad ?
He knows this. This would have been a factor in GE2015 too.
Agreed. She made a gambit and lost. She's gone if they fall short of a big majority.
Still hoping that my May Majority and SCON >9.5 bets will come in.
https://twitter.com/ptr_yeung/status/872946502255202304
One of my predictions earlier today was that Labour would get less seats than the exit poll forecast. I got that right at least!
On the accuracy of the exit poll and the swing to and from the Conservatives in individual seats.
The key is the UKIP vote share in 2015
Above the national share (plus a bit) the seat should swing to the Conservatives; below it should swing to Labour
Newcastle Central had 15% UKIP in 2015, which is slightly above the English national share of 14% and saw a small swing to Labour; Sunderland South had 21% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives. Sunderland Central had 20% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives.
The exit poll looks good so far. May change later of course.
Lots of the expected Tory gains were based on them taking ALMOST ALL of the UKIP vote.
But.
Are the exits picking up anti-Tory tactical voting? Are the Tories piling up votes where they don't need them.
Aberdeen South, the Conservatives have a 63% chance of victory, Labour has a 11% chance of victory, the SNP has a 26% chance of victory
Airdrie & Shotts, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 77% chance of victory
Argyll & Bute, the Conservatives have a 4% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 36% chance of victory, the SNP has a 60% chance of victory
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, the Conservatives have a 35% chance of victory, Labour has a 1% chance of victory, the SNP has a 64% chance of victory
Banff & Buchan, the Conservatives have a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory
East Lothian, the Conservatives have a 24% chance of victory, Labour has a 55% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory
Edinburgh East, Labour has a 49% chance of victory, the SNP has a 51% chance of victory
Edinburgh South West, the Conservatives have a 37% chance of victory, Labour has a 27% chance of victory, the SNP has a 36% chance of victory
Fife North East, the Conservatives have a 7% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 73% chance of victory, the SNP has a 20% chance of victory
Glasgow Central, Labour has a 59% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory
Gordon, the Liberal Democrats have a 51% chance of victory, the SNP has a 49% chance of victory
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey, the Liberal Democrats have a 48% chance of victory, the SNP has a 52% chance of victory
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Labour has a 25% chance of victory, the SNP has a 75% chance of victory
Lanark & Hamilton East, the Conservatives have a 5% chance of victory, Labour has a 16% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory
Ochil & Perthshire South, the Conservatives have a 31% chance of victory, Labour has a 23% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory
Paisley & Renfrewshire North, Labour has a 21% chance of victory, the SNP has a 79% chance of victory
Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Labour has a 54% chance of victory, the SNP has a 46% chance of victory
Renfrewshire East, the Conservatives have a 32% chance of victory, Labour has a 58% chance of victory, the SNP has a 10% chance of victory
Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Labour has a 41% chance of victory, the SNP has a 59% chance of victory
Stirling, the Conservatives have a 56% chance of victory, Labour has a 3% chance of victory, the SNP has a 41% chance of victory
Washington & Sunderland West : CON 11660 LAB 23160
Kettering : CON 28990 LAB 15000
Swindon North : CON 31200 LAB 18000
UKIP - big swing to Con
Turnout up benefitting Lab.
This means that Con could still gain places like Wakefield but lose seats like Hendon where UKIP was weak.
Voters don't appear to have switched to Labour as much as pollsters had predicted
http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/politics/exit-poll-labour-election-results-latest-conservatives-votes-swing-brexit-a7780291.html?F
Do Tories not just do as the Mail says? They told them to vote Clegg!
Newcastle East
Lab +9k
Con +2k
LD -1.5k
Lab 28,127
Grn 755
Cons 8866
UKIP 1350
LDs 2574
Lab 21096
UKIP 1564
Cons 29431
Tory hold
Lab +10.7
Con +3.3