Exit poll may be overestimating Labour’s performance in election, first two results suggest Voters don't appear to have switched to Labour as much as pollsters had predicted
The Conservatives will beat the trend where the 2015 UKIP vote was higher than the English national vote share. This applies to Sunderland South and Central where the UKIP vote shares were over 20% compared with an English average of 14%. Where there is a smaller UKIP vote share to be lost as in Newcastle Central, expect the trend to go to Labour. So far so good for the exit poll.
Sterling falling again after the Swindon North result. I think this looks very touch and go for a Tory majority now. Not that many marginal Tory seats from 2015 comparatively speaking.
Exit poll may be overestimating Labour’s performance in election, first two results suggest Voters don't appear to have switched to Labour as much as pollsters had predicted
The Conservatives will beat the trend where the 2015 UKIP vote was higher than the English national vote share. This applies to Sunderland South and Central where the UKIP vote shares were over 20% compared with an English average of 14%. Where there is a smaller UKIP vote share to be lost as in Newcastle Central, expect the trend to go to Labour. So far so good for the exit poll.
Yes, this could be the first post-Brexit election , on a new map. In truth, it all feels a lot like a a year ago, part 2.
Exit poll looking very much back on track - I'd say South Swindon is gone on those swings
It requires a swing of 5.9% and that was a swing of 3.7%.
At the weekend Comres was showing a swing to Labour in the South and to the Tories in the North, the Midlands, Scotland and Wales, so far that is exactly what is happening
@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.
Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.
Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.
Brexit could be dead.
Why? Labour support Brexit!!
Brexit, in the form of a well-prepared Article 50 position from the EU27, is an express freight train that will destroy the tactical positioning of both of the major parties.
Exit poll looking very much back on track - I'd say South Swindon is gone on those swings
It requires a swing of 5.9% and that was a swing of 3.7%.
At the weekend Comres was showing a swing to Labour in the South and the Tories in the North, the Midlands, Scotland and Wales, so far that is exactly what is happening
So YouGov model and ComRes can get right tonight? LOL
@paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says. That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people. If only Portillo was still MP.
Comments
LAB 56
CON 26
LD 8
Actual result
LAB 68
CON 21
LD 6
Lab +18.1
Con +3.7
Cons +3
Lab +11
3.7% swing Tory to Labour, slightly better for Labour than exit poll here
Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.
It's over.
Hung parliament.
YG model detractors????
Brexit could be dead.
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/872951305152733184
That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
If only Portillo was still MP.
Of all the times in our history to have a shambolic hung parliament...
has to go surely
Reverse of what happened in 2015 there