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  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Swindon is a very bad result for Con.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    What's the swing?????
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Swindon N

    Lab +10.7
    Con +3.3

    Think Swindon South looking good for a Lab gain, then?
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    rottenborough said:

    SeanT said:

    Ruth Davidson for PM

    To be fair you got your bed wetting in at a fairly early stage of this election.
    & let's not forget the Jezza for PM period.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Swindon North result bad for the Tories.

    Poor result for us there.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Swindon North result bad for the Tories.

    Yes on second look - that is not great
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Big increase in Labour's vote in Swindon North.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    SimonStClare said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kellner says Clegg may have lost Sheffield Hallam according to local LDs

    Nooooo!
    Yes Very good news
  • EPG
    EPG Posts: 6,739
    Lab +7.4% more than Con in Swindon N. Small LD/Green vote (6%).
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Yougov model for Newcastle East:

    LAB 56
    CON 26
    LD 8

    Actual result

    LAB 68
    CON 21
    LD 6
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    Yup - hmm, maybe the exit poll wasn't so unripe after all.
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    How does Swindon compare to exit poll?
  • Bobajob_PB
    Bobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Big swing to Labour in Swindon.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Newcastle East

    Lab +18.1
    Con +3.7
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    No sleep tonight.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    YouGov almost spot-on with Swindon North again. Predicted a 17% Tory majority, in reality 16% majority.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    That's a bad result in Swindon North!!!!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2017
    Swindon North
    Cons +3
    Lab +11
    3.7% swing Tory to Labour, slightly better for Labour than exit poll here
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Ruth Davidson might be the only thing stopping Prime Jeremy Corbyn from happening.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Ukip to Lab in Swindon?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.

    Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.
  • TravelJunkie
    TravelJunkie Posts: 431
    11% increase in labour vote in swindon
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Swindon N

    Lab +10.7
    Con +3.3

    Exit poll looking very much back on track - I'd say South Swindon is gone on those swings
  • Drutt
    Drutt Posts: 1,125
    edited June 2017
    LD underperforming 2015 in all but two seats so far and well down on exit poll pretty much everywhere.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    This is the election of turnout
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    Swing your pants.
  • TravelJunkie
    TravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Greens lib Dems getting squeezed
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    B-b-but the postals?
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Last two results, Labour outperforms exit poll.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So far the YouGov model is looking spookily accurate.
  • waitingfortonight
    waitingfortonight Posts: 54
    A long night ahead I think! And it's 6am here...
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    edited June 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    Exit poll may be overestimating Labour’s performance in election, first two results suggest
    Voters don't appear to have switched to Labour as much as pollsters had predicted

    http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/politics/exit-poll-labour-election-results-latest-conservatives-votes-swing-brexit-a7780291.html?F

    The Conservatives will beat the trend where the 2015 UKIP vote was higher than the English national vote share. This applies to Sunderland South and Central where the UKIP vote shares were over 20% compared with an English average of 14%. Where there is a smaller UKIP vote share to be lost as in Newcastle Central, expect the trend to go to Labour. So far so good for the exit poll.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    TravelJunkie said:

    Greens lib Dems getting squeezed

    Or are we seeing anti-Tory tactical voting again?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Labour are having a very good night.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Freggles said:

    Yougov model for Newcastle East:

    LAB 56
    CON 26
    LD 8

    Actual result

    LAB 68
    CON 21
    LD 6

    Huge number of students in Newcastle East.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ruth Davidson might be the only thing stopping Prime Jeremy Corbyn from happening.

    The exit poll says 4 LD certain gains, 6 certain Tory gains.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Drutt said:

    LD underperforming 2015 in all but two seats so far and well down on exit poll.

    I think outside Scotland it could be as bad as it was predicted.
  • Bobajob_PB
    Bobajob_PB Posts: 928
    You Gov almost exactly bang on so far??
  • Oliver
    Oliver Posts: 33
    Uh oh!
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Swing to Labour in Swindon North.

    It's over.

    Hung parliament.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Swindon N

    Lab +10.7
    Con +3.3

    Exit poll looking very much back on track - I'd say South Swindon is gone on those swings
    It requires a swing of 5.9% and that was a swing of 3.7%.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    MarqueeMark said:

    Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems

    Yes all of those Lab -> UKIP voters are swing back to Labour instead of the Tories.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Good morning!
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Ave_it said:

    That's a bad result in Swindon North!!!!

    On the contarary

    YG model detractors????
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    This could be a paradigm shifting election. Like when the South switched to the GOP.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    AlastairMeeks said:

    So far the YouGov model is looking spookily accurate.

    It's because they weighted down the politically engaged!
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    KentRising said:

    Swing to Labour in Swindon North.

    It's over.

    Hung parliament.

    Students.

  • socialliberal
    socialliberal Posts: 41
    Jack Straw - sanctimonious, supercilious, smart-arse
  • Bobajob_PB
    Bobajob_PB Posts: 928
    The_Apocalypse said:

    BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.

    Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.

    Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.

    Brexit could be dead.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MaxPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems

    Yes all of those Lab -> UKIP voters are swing back to Labour instead of the Tories.
    As I said they may do...
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    AndyJS said:

    kle4 said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Swindon N

    Lab +10.7
    Con +3.3

    Exit poll looking very much back on track - I'd say South Swindon is gone on those swings
    It requires a swing of 5.9% and that was a swing of 3.7%.
    So pretty darn close, and South Swindon is already more Labour leaning and so coudl quite possibly swing more than the North.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    I have no idea what is going on.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    I say 3-2 Lab/Con
  • TravelJunkie
    TravelJunkie Posts: 431
    rcs1000 said:

    TravelJunkie said:

    Greens lib Dems getting squeezed

    Or are we seeing anti-Tory tactical voting again?
    I think you could be right. Will be interesting to see former of remain seats.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Bobajob_PB said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.

    Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.

    Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.

    Brexit could be dead.
    Why? Labour support Brexit!!
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    Expectation management klaxon.

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/872951305152733184
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    SeanT said:

    Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology

    Yes, I hope we push him off the tower of London.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    kle4 said:

    Drutt said:

    LD underperforming 2015 in all but two seats so far and well down on exit poll.

    I think outside Scotland it could be as bad as it was predicted.
    LDs lose Sheffield Hallam, W&L, but it looks like they hold C&W. Not what I'd have expected.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Prodicus said:

    KentRising said:

    Swing to Labour in Swindon North.

    It's over.

    Hung parliament.

    Students.

    Good job only Swindon and Newcastle have students.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    SeanT said:

    Dementia Tax and Nick Timothy will go down in Tory demonology

    Labour vote up 11% in Swindon North.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    That Swindon result is a good one for Labour. Tories may just be doing better in NE. Long, long night ahead.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    So Newcastle beats Sunderland twice in a row??
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Bobajob_PB said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.

    Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.

    Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.

    Brexit could be dead.
    Maidenhead Lab GAIN anyone?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    MarqueeMark said:

    Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems

    F*cking idiots.
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Drutt said:

    LD underperforming 2015 in all but two seats so far and well down on exit poll pretty much everywhere.

    2 out of 5 LOL
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kle4 said:

    JennyFreeman said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.

    Nah, she's fatally damaged.
    Let's see
    If the exit poll is massively wrong and she gets what she expected, the morning papers will look like a bunch of wallys.
    She is still badly badly damaged even if this is just a bad scare
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sterling falling again after the Swindon North result. I think this looks very touch and go for a Tory majority now. Not that many marginal Tory seats from 2015 comparatively speaking.
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    FF43 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Exit poll may be overestimating Labour’s performance in election, first two results suggest
    Voters don't appear to have switched to Labour as much as pollsters had predicted

    http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/politics/exit-poll-labour-election-results-latest-conservatives-votes-swing-brexit-a7780291.html?F

    The Conservatives will beat the trend where the 2015 UKIP vote was higher than the English national vote share. This applies to Sunderland South and Central where the UKIP vote shares were over 20% compared with an English average of 14%. Where there is a smaller UKIP vote share to be lost as in Newcastle Central, expect the trend to go to Labour. So far so good for the exit poll.
    Yes, this could be the first post-Brexit election , on a new map. In truth, it all feels a lot like a a year ago, part 2.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/872947831618895872
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    kle4 said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Swindon N

    Lab +10.7
    Con +3.3

    Exit poll looking very much back on track - I'd say South Swindon is gone on those swings
    It requires a swing of 5.9% and that was a swing of 3.7%.
    At the weekend Comres was showing a swing to Labour in the South and to the Tories in the North, the Midlands, Scotland and Wales, so far that is exactly what is happening
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea now expected, source on ground says.
    That's KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA, people.
    If only Portillo was still MP.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited June 2017
    Ignore.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MaxPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems

    Yes all of those Lab -> UKIP voters are swing back to Labour instead of the Tories.
    As I said they may do...
    It was the house thieving policy that did it.
  • augustus_carp
    augustus_carp Posts: 224
    Prodicus said:

    KentRising said:

    Swing to Labour in Swindon North.

    It's over.

    Hung parliament.

    Students.

    Those pesky kids....
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    DavidL said:

    That Swindon result is a good one for Labour. Tories may just be doing better in NE. Long, long night ahead.

    Piling up votes where not needed - 2015 in reverse.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    After 5 results swing from Con to Lab = 1.5%.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Looking good on turnout bets

    Yep..
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Swindon suggests the games up for Theresa May, for the Tories and for Brexit.
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    Oh dear. Theresa May what have you done?

    Of all the times in our history to have a shambolic hung parliament...

    has to go surely
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chameleon said:

    I have no idea what is going on.

    The short version is that the exit poll is right.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Has Martin Boon tweeted 'oh shit', yet?
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Social care and WFA disaster - Wales not good for conservatives and it looks like labour and snp may be in a chance of government. God forbid
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    kle4 said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    BBC saying Tories did better in Newcastle East than exit poll suggest.

    Swindon better than the exit poll suggests.

    Labour completely dominating in Remainy seats.

    Brexit could be dead.
    Why? Labour support Brexit!!
    Brexit, in the form of a well-prepared Article 50 position from the EU27, is an express freight train that will destroy the tactical positioning of both of the major parties.
  • Typo
    Typo Posts: 195
    How did Swindon vote in the referendum?
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Looking quite dodgy for us now - very poor result in Swindon N

    Reverse of what happened in 2015 there
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Drutt said:

    LD underperforming 2015 in all but two seats so far and well down on exit poll.

    I think outside Scotland it could be as bad as it was predicted.
    LDs lose Sheffield Hallam, W&L, but it looks like they hold C&W. Not what I'd have expected.
    Who would lead them if Clegg and Farron and Swinson all lose?!!!!!!
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    Chameleon said:

    I have no idea what is going on.

    +1
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Should the BBC graphic be saying John McDonnell MP?
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    Casino_Royale said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Swindon North - UKIP going largely to Labour it seems

    F*cking idiots.
    Calm down dear - still a long way to go...
  • socialliberal
    socialliberal Posts: 41
    Euthi-may-sia
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    TravelJunkie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TravelJunkie said:

    Greens lib Dems getting squeezed

    Or are we seeing anti-Tory tactical voting again?
    I think you could be right. Will be interesting to see former of remain seats.
    We have to wait until almost 3am before we see the first possible LD gain: East Dunbartonshire.
  • GideonWise
    GideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Swindon North has dampened my optimism again. Fuck those idiots who came up with that manifesto.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Remember the number of Uni students has grown hugely over the years, they are spread out across the country, not just traditional Uni seats.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    This is a paradigm shift.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    kle4 said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Swindon N

    Lab +10.7
    Con +3.3

    Exit poll looking very much back on track - I'd say South Swindon is gone on those swings
    It requires a swing of 5.9% and that was a swing of 3.7%.
    At the weekend Comres was showing a swing to Labour in the South and the Tories in the North, the Midlands, Scotland and Wales, so far that is exactly what is happening
    So YouGov model and ComRes can get right tonight? LOL
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    Swindon graduate/yoof surge. No fat lady yet.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/872933956580253696
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Prodicus said:

    KentRising said:

    Swing to Labour in Swindon North.

    It's over.

    Hung parliament.

    Students.

    Is Swindon North particularly a student town?
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Casino_Royale said:

    Has Martin Boon tweeted 'oh shit', yet?

    Or indeed Kaboom?
This discussion has been closed.

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