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The exit poll in 2015 didn't predict the eventual Tory majority. In fact, it's almost the same as tonight's figures.The_Apocalypse said:YouGov, Survation
I'm sorry.
Yours sincerely, Miss A0 -
Gold standardSunil_Prasannan said:
Who did this exit poll? Survation??Monksfield said:Exit poll looks too good for Lab. 68 in SS sounds high.
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Is it possible that the constituencies used in the exit poll could be massively unrepresentative if we have had a complete shift in voting patterns?0
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It’s a Curtice exit poll, so there is every reason to believe it will be close to the final outcome, but it could be +/- 20 seats or so. – That’s just my opinion of course.Razedabode said:Any chance we're so used to the exit poll being right we're placing too much faith in it?
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Higher turnout?alex. said:Newcastle and Sunderland aren't exactly running at their normal speed. Recount?
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Already I'm seeing rumbles on twitter that this could 'stop' Brexit...this could get very nasty very quickly0
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May is nailed on for worst ever modern PM & Con leader, unless this poll is spectacularly wrong.0
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Adding LDs that still doesn't add up to a majority. Will anything actually get passed? Certainly, controversial measures will be a challenge.Bobajob_PB said:The_Apocalypse said:LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.
Liberals will go in with Labour with single market as a price. That's my current thinking.
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Then you should be looking into why that's being predicted, and considering whether or not it's right.Chameleon said:
Because the predicted gains are pretty odd, with identical places a few km either side of a border flipping opposite ways.Chris said:
If you don't which direction it's fucked in, why are you so sure it's fucked at all?Chameleon said:
No. Exit poll is fucked. Which direction however is not so clear.waitingfortonight said:BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???
Honestly, all people said about that YouGov model was "It's unbelievable, it doesn't feel right". Now the exit poll is saying essentially the same thing. Maybe people need to be more questioning of their gut feeling, if they can't identify any flaws in the evidence that goes against it.0 -
DUP Donaldson barely able to conceal his glee on the BBC.0
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People like Mortimer made it clear he wasn't welcome in the Tory party.MaxPB said:
Fuck George Osborne. Fucking idiot. He took all of those jobs and left parliament. Fucking tool. He could be PM by Monday if he had run.HaroldO said:
Who's your money on?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
We won't have nukes with a Lab/SNP governmentviewcode said:
OH FUCK. IF THAT HAPPENS WE'RE GREECE WITH NUKES.Morris_Dancer said:...a Lab-SNP coalition could be viable...
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LOL. You were a Brexiter. You destroyed Cameron and Osborne. You have reaped this.MaxPB said:
Fuck George Osborne. Fucking idiot. He took all of those jobs and left parliament. Fucking tool. He could be PM by Monday if he had run.HaroldO said:
Who's your money on?TheScreamingEagles said:
(Naturally, if the exit poll is really wrong and May gets a very workable majority I'll take all this back!)0 -
But if the swing on the day is due to heavy youth turnout, then the postal swing is unlikely to ma?tch itChameleon said:
It's based on swing though, not raw votes, so if postals swing approximately the same way as on the day, it is right.FrankBooth said:
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
They don't take account of postals.alex. said:Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?
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Sunderland South 2010:
Lab 50%
Tory 21%
LD 14%
UKIP/BNP 8%
Ind 7%
2015:
Lab 55%
UKIP 22%
Tory 19%
Green/LD 5%
2017:
UKIP/Green/LD/Ind: 12%?
Good result for Tories: 30%
Indifferent: 25%
Bad: 20%0 -
The Newcastle Central (soon to be) MP is taking a selfie0
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But who would be leader? Labour cannot work with the SNP and the Lib Dems, the latter may do supply & c but they got burnt last time.The_Apocalypse said:Curtice thinks we can rule out
- Con landslide
-Labour largest party
Thinks that Con leader will be PM
Thinks we can't rule out Con majority
Sleep!0 -
Sky ticker: Newcastle Central declaration within 10 minutes. Do we have the exit poll projection for that one?0
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Oh. So today I was tasked with doing a sweepstake in my office. I came up with Tory seat bands that seemed fair (smaller around 350 to 370). I drew 305-328.0
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"Multiple signals. In front and behind!"RobD said:
Houghton & Sunderland S prediction from exit poll:JosiasJessop said:If this exit poll is correct, what sort of figures should we be looking for in Sunderland and Newcastle?
Increased Labour majorities? Or is it too MoE to make any determinations?
Lab 68
Con 23
UKIP 6
LD 2
GRN 10 -
DUPsocialliberal said:
Indeed. No one will go into coalition with ToriesAndrew said:
If the exit poll is dead on it's another election.The_Apocalypse said:LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.0 -
It turns out that more than one crazy backŵard-looking fantasy is popular. Who knew?0
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No Coalition, support on a vote by vote basis.Bobajob_PB said:The_Apocalypse said:LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.
Liberals will go in with Labour with single market as a price. That's my current thinking.0 -
Leadsom for leader?0
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Well my 150 Conservative majority was totally wrong...
Very exciting and very glad I put a couple of quid on spreadsheet Phil as next pm.0 -
Well Labour were as long as 8/13 to win Rother Valley at some pointsAndreaParma_82 said:The Rotherham Star:
"New: Labour sources say they are confident of holding all three Rotherham seats."
well, thanks!0 -
Ruth Davidson is far from lightweight. She took over the Scots Tories when they were close to having the life support machine turned off. She is a far superior campaigner to May0
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That is funny.Scott_P said:0 -
Any bets on Sinn Fein taking their seats in parliament under a Corbyn government? They are friends, after all....
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I'm so annoyed you stole my thread idea about Brexit and Corbyn being two cheeks of the same arse.AlastairMeeks said:It turns out that more than one crazy backŵard-looking fantasy is popular. Who knew?
6 minute abs indeed.0 -
Having been at the heart of Labour strategy in Stockton South and co-written our leaflets, I am a sad man tonight to be up here in Crieff and not at the count as I should be...Freggles said:James Wharton in Stockton South could be in trouble according to Exit Poll.
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I have a bet, David Davis as next conservative leader , 100/1.0
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Given the circumstances are you going to be allowed to stay up?!AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The worm has turned again!!HYUFD said:
UKIP would surge if that was the result but I would also accept that having voted Remain last year. May to be fair to her voted Remain but decided to give the Brexit voting North and Midlands the immigration controls they voted for, if they have not voted for that and to give May the mandate she needed for hard Brexit as a Tory I am now tempted to say sod the North and Midlands, let's have as soft a Brexit as possible and flood the North and Midlands with Poles and Estonians and Romanians!SeanT said:
Totally happy with that. Fuck off Theresa, you silly womanMaxPB said:
Could end up with that, PM Boris with Lib Dem support putting an EEA/EFTA plan through.foxinsoxuk said:
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.isam said:Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
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Exit poll shouldn't need 68% in H&SS to be right, achieving an overall swing of 4.5% is harder when you're already over 50% vote share. In 1997, the Sunderland seats were swinging 9% to 10%, moving the predictions down to a Labour majority of around 100 from the initial near 200. But more marginal constituencies got 17% and 18% swings making the exit poll much more correct. (Still don't believe the exit poll though)0
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Jeremy Corbyn - I truly dislike your politics, and I believe you manifesto was a (positive) nonsense, but well done, even though you are likely to be the second most popular party, not the most popular, clearly people loved what you were selling.0
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I am pulling my house off the market in the morning.
It will be interesting watching PM Corbyn fuck up the country. Hopefully he won't last too long.0 -
This could be 1997 levels of tactical voting back in play.
1 thing we didn't discuss much - tories have been in power 7 years. A generic anti government swing was never really factored in much. Perhaps people just generally are tiring of the tories.0 -
Just seen Bridget Phillipson!0
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A confidence, supply and Brexit deal, subject to approval on Brexit direction with either party would be my guess.Bobajob_PB said:The_Apocalypse said:LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.
Liberals will go in with Labour with single market as a price. That's my current thinking.0 -
CCHQ never wavered from 350-360 seats in all I heard. This is worst case scenario.0
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It's the Lab -> UKIP -> Con voters that are the key, the dementia tax policy and her other shitty policies ruined that swing and drove scores of them back to Labour.JosiasJessop said:The exit poll does seem problematic - it whiffs a little, but is also plausible.
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Brexit and single market may not be an option.foxinsoxuk said:
No Coalition, support on a vote by vote basis.Bobajob_PB said:The_Apocalypse said:LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.
Liberals will go in with Labour with single market as a price. That's my current thinking.0 -
I'm feeling a bit more confident about my big CON sell spread bet at 393 seats.0
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This is the time of the year we have to see Bridget Philipson. Then we can freeze her until next GE0
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I recommend reading the tongue in cheek piece posted by Edmund in Tokyo earlier.
https://medium.com/@roreiy/i-tried-to-write-a-neoliberal-troll-case-for-jeremy-corbyn-i-really-did-69a37b2d5eb
If the UK is on its way out, we may as well go out with a bang.0 -
The swivel-eyed right opened the genie's bottle. They could not control what happened next.AlastairMeeks said:It turns out that more than one crazy backŵard-looking fantasy is popular. Who knew?
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Aren't you supposed to not be here :-)AlastairMeeks said:It turns out that more than one crazy backŵard-looking fantasy is popular. Who knew?
We will miss you though0 -
But essentially there to do what Labour wants, as they won't touch the Tories even on that basis.foxinsoxuk said:
No Coalition, support on a vote by vote basis.Bobajob_PB said:The_Apocalypse said:LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.
Liberals will go in with Labour with single market as a price. That's my current thinking.0 -
Just a touch?MikeSmithson said:I'm feeling a bit more confident about my big CON sell spread bet at 393 seats.
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What should Newcastle result be?0
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Why can't Labour work with the SNP? It wouldn't be popular, but I don't see Corbyn turning it down.HaroldO said:
But who would be leader? Labour cannot work with the SNP and the Lib Dems, the latter may do supply & c but they got burnt last time.The_Apocalypse said:Curtice thinks we can rule out
- Con landslide
-Labour largest party
Thinks that Con leader will be PM
Thinks we can't rule out Con majority
Sleep!0 -
Newcastle Central to declare.
Sunderland beaten0 -
First result up0
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Newcastle about to declare0
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Yep, Brexit was already bad enough.Scott_P said:
Why would he want that?MaxPB said:Fuck George Osborne. Fucking idiot. He took all of those jobs and left parliament. Fucking tool. He could be PM by Monday if he had run.
Whoever is PM on Monday is in deep shit
Time to get qualified and vamoose for me.0 -
Newcastle Central result coming up.0
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314+8? Maybe short term while Cons find a new leader.The_Apocalypse said:
DUP
IG con midpoint up to 332 though.....
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This I agree with.
https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/8729350914918113280 -
You must be delighted with this result.AlastairMeeks said:It turns out that more than one crazy backŵard-looking fantasy is popular. Who knew?
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If my impression from Broxtowe (which the BBC is showing as a Labour gain) is right, even getting close would be dependent on the huge increase in youth vote, coupled with more or less hanging on in the WWC areas.
If that's right, I doubt if Sunderland and Newscastle will show a huge Labour jump.0 -
Nobody overreact - if the proportions are less than the exit poll suggests for this seat, well, the exit poll is really more about the seats changing hands, which might well swing more than seats that were already very strongly Labour.dr_spyn said:Newcastle Central result coming up.
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24K for Lab in Newcastle Central.0
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Geordies beat the Mackems!0
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Brexit can't realistically be stopped, now that Article 50 has been invoked. The question is, what kind of Brexit. If the woman whose answer to that question was just "Brexit means Brexit" is on the way out, that can only be a step forward.Slackbladder said:Already I'm seeing rumbles on twitter that this could 'stop' Brexit...this could get very nasty very quickly
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Turnout up 10pp.0
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newcastle - swing con to lab of 2.1%
Labour up and tories up, but labour up by more, turnout up 67% from 60%. UKIP cratering and gone not to tories but all over0 -
Big increases in both Con and Lab in Newcastle Central over 2015: Lab's increase more in numbers terms (and probably percentage).0
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Corbyn was the conservative in this election - let's get the family silver back.kle4 said:Jeremy Corbyn - I truly dislike your politics, and I believe you manifesto was a (positive) nonsense, but well done, even though you are likely to be the second most popular party, not the most popular, clearly people loved what you were selling.
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Newcastle Central
LD 1,812
Tories 9,534
UKIP 1,482
Lab 24,071
Green 595
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Lab maj only up by 2,264 votes in Newcastle Central. Not massive.0
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Swing to Labour at 2.1%!!!0
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Newcastle Central not out of line with the exit poll0
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Armed police at a count - for fucks sake!0
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Tell us again about how the WWC love the Tories now.0
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Nah, not idiotic. Think about it.SeanT said:
Idiotic. Cameron and Osborne lost an unloseable referendum. By taking us alll for wankers with a shit campaign. It was all their fault. An odd echo of Theresa May.JosiasJessop said:
LOL. You were a Brexiter. You destroyed Cameron and Osborne. You have reaped this.MaxPB said:
Fuck George Osborne. Fucking idiot. He took all of those jobs and left parliament. Fucking tool. He could be PM by Monday if he had run.HaroldO said:
Who's your money on?TheScreamingEagles said:
(Naturally, if the exit poll is really wrong and May gets a very workable majority I'll take all this back!)0 -
Much better for the Conservatives in Newcastle than the exit poll expected0
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+1FF43 said:This I agree with.
https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/8729350914918113280 -
+9.9% for Lab
+5.7% for Con0 -
Newcastle Lab +10 Tories +6, first result Kellner says much better for Tories than exit poll0
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Substantially better for the Tories, but in Newcastle. What about elsewhere?0
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It can, the EU would probably let us cancel it.Chris said:
Brexit can't realistically be stopped, now that Article 50 has been invoked. The question is, what kind of Brexit. If the woman whose answer to that question was just "Brexit means Brexit" is on the way out, that can only be a step forward.Slackbladder said:Already I'm seeing rumbles on twitter that this could 'stop' Brexit...this could get very nasty very quickly
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Kellner: Tories do substantially better in Newcastle Central than expected.
Maybe Tories heading for majority after all.0 -
Con massive outperform Exit in Newcastle.0
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You've never heard of Northern Ireland have you?hunchman said:Armed police at a count - for fucks sake!
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Tory majority is probably on.0
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Exit poll predicted a 7% swing to Labour, Newcastle just 2% swing to Labour even in a Remain seat0
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LD and Greens squeezed to within an inch of their life.0
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Is the Exit poll wrong? only 2.1% swing, but 7% predicted....0
