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  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Floater said:

    At this moment in time - I understand how remainers felt when those results came in.

    There's no results in yet!
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    What is going on in politics these days....
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    If it's EEA/ETFA or staying in the EU, then I'd vote for staying in the EU
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Theresa May going down extremely well in Wales and Scotland, extremely badly in London and graduate seats like Warwick, Reading West.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Govey Gove is on ITV
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    williamglenn said:

    Paristonda said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    Remain in the single market and customs union
    Yup, EEA / EFTA - Norway model and we keep free movement.
    To get from here to there would be an utterly pointless diminution of the UK.
    Leave was pointless from the start.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    HYUFD said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Chris said:

    If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?

    Soft Brexit now. And May will be gone as soon as politically possible.
    Quite possibly right on both, possibly PM Hammond with LD support he would have a majority but would inevitably be a UKIP surge too and that could put Corbyn in No 10 next time. Politically may be more sensible for the Tories to go into opposition if this exit poll is right, put Boris in as opposition leader on a hard Brexit platform and let Corbyn deal with the EU and agree concessions on immigration, 100 billion euros etc
    Agreed.
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    williamglenn said:

    Paristonda said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    Remain in the single market and customs union
    Yup, EEA / EFTA - Norway model and we keep free movement.
    To get from here to there would be an utterly pointless diminution of the UK.
    ..which is what Brexit has been, all along. Looks like the people of the UK are having a say about that, I think.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast Tories gain Moray

    And Gordon is 50/50.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.

    He may well be PM in a week.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    How many seats are they predicting changing hands? Must be surely unprecedented numbers in an election where the trend isn't all one way?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    AlastairMeeks said:

    That Philip Hammond bet for Prime Minister after the election is suddenly looking a lot better than a 500/1 shot.

    Makes up for the £250 I just lost on the spreads.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Andrew said:

    Huhh?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/872930308043231234

    It's Dan Hodges
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Where are you all getting the exit poll specific results from
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074
    The 2015 exit poll also predicted Tories largest party, without a majority.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Never Underestimate Jeremy Corbyn
  • Chris_A
    Chris_A Posts: 1,237
    Casino_Royale said:

    I have a horrible feeling the final result will be worse than this for May and the Tories.

    We can live in hope. I'll be several thousand quid poorer tomorrow but it'll be worth it.
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.

    The Theresa May Strategy
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Big advance in Wales in Scotland (SNP targets on board 4 flipping). Fucking eviscerated in England.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Pulpstar said:

    Where are you all getting the exit poll specific results from

    They were reviewing them on the BBC show. Can't seem to see it on the website.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    FPT: Mr. Andrew, but how are they divvied up currently?

    76 too close to call means a Lab-SNP coalition could be viable. Or May might increase her majority.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    This all implies very big risk of Exit poll error.

    Con being forecast to lose lots of seats (approx 35?) and gain approx 20.
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,726
    Andrew said:

    Huhh?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/872930308043231234

    I... doubt that. What risk that the exit poll is wildly wrong? I can't see it...
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,347
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Unfortunately the LD total going up means that Tim won't go.

    The LDs have said he might be in trouble. It would be amusing if the LDs gained seats, but lost Farron.

    That would be the perfect result for them.

  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Craig Oliver on Sky basically saying May is doomed...
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Pulpstar said:

    Where are you all getting the exit poll specific results from

    It was up on the BBC
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    https://twitter.com/SamJRushworth/status/872930710637694981
  • Disraeli
    Disraeli Posts: 1,106
    I bet that the Tories wish that they had gone ahead with the overdue revision the out-of-date constituency boundaries now!
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Is there a projected vote share based on the exit poll?
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Finchley and Golders green is not going Lab. That is not happening.
  • stjohn
    stjohn Posts: 1,910
    Boris 8.4-8.8 next PM.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU

    A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.

  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    bigjohnowls said:

    Never Underestimate Jeremy Corbyn

    +1. You must be feeling fab, bigjohnowls?
  • William_H
    William_H Posts: 346
    Wow, we might go Labour here in Milton Keynes South according to the exit poll. Majority of nearly 9000 and 8000 UKIP supporters. Would be amazing.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    The Reading seats have been trending Labour over time. Labour have a strong presence there locally
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    The battleground graphic on the BBC is flooring me, just as I'm sure it's flooring most of you. Dozens of Labour gains! The Tories only picking up seats in Scotland and Wales.

    I've just come back from final canvassing in Erdington and there's no way that Labour have done this well north of the Watford Gap. No way that there are no Tory gains in England.

    The Tories will have a majority.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Slackbladder said:

    If it's EEA/ETFA or staying in the EU, then I'd vote for staying in the EU

    It isn't. Staying in the EU, as was, is no longer an option.

    Crawling back and joining Schengen and the euro might be, I suppose.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    William_H said:

    Wow, we might go Labour here in Milton Keynes South according to the exit poll. Majority of nearly 9000 and 8000 UKIP supporters. Would be amazing.

    What I'm worried about is that the Tories have been targeting the wrong seats.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Chameleon said:

    Finchley and Golders green is not going Lab. That is not happening.

    It would be highly fitting for the Finchley MP to lose his seat given what has gone on there over the past 35 years..............
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    David Herdson - poster of the year, No question.
  • socialliberal
    socialliberal Posts: 41
    Freggles said:

    Govey Gove is on ITV

    I thought he was Govey McGoveface
  • JamesM
    JamesM Posts: 221
    Well the map of the country is weird here in the exit poll. Tories win across Wales and Scotland but losing seats in England.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Fishing said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Tories will win a majority. But this is shocking for May.

    ... and triumphant for Corbyn ...

    Undoubtedly.

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Milton Keynes South = no. 82 on the Labour target list.
    Chipping Barnet = no.78.

    Both predicted to go red.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Andrew said:

    Huhh?

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/872930308043231234

    It's Dan Hodges
    Yup.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @davieclegg: Labour source: Edinburgh South sampling: Postal votes only - 13% swing from SNP to Labour.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    Hmm. I suppose it's not surprising that people are finding the exit poll predictions unbelievable, because they found the predictions of the YouGov model unbelievable, and the YouGov model is quite close to the exit poll.

    The question is, how strong is the evidence for unbelievability, compared with the evidence of actually asking people how they have just voted?
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    So it looks like Cameron is still the only Tory leader to win a majority since 1992.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074
    Dadge said:

    The battleground graphic on the BBC is flooring me, just as I'm sure it's flooring most of you. Dozens of Labour gains! The Tories only picking up seats in Scotland and Wales.

    I've just come back from final canvassing in Erdington and there's no way that Labour have done this well north of the Watford Gap. No way that there are no Tory gains in England.

    The Tories will have a majority.

    Who did the exit poll? YouGov? :lol:
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chameleon said:

    Finchley and Golders green is not going Lab. That is not happening.

    Possibly politics, and Remainers, trumps religion and ethnicity.
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    MikeL said:

    This all implies very big risk of Exit poll error.

    Yep, and clearly the error is more likely to be on the con upside. Spreads at 330 mids now.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Exit Poll Breakdown

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    bigjohnowls said:

    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)

    WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Well I won't be having an early night, this is a must watch at least for a fair few hours yet.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Well, it may be I end up almost even if enough of those Scottish Con gains come through (Angus in particular). I got on Broxtowe like Foxinsox, and Bristol West and Cambridge get me some small but decent returns for Labour.

    I did put a small amount on a Conservative minority as a covering position, and Tories 330-359, so money wise I think I'm ok, but not rich as most bets will have failed.
  • socialliberal
    socialliberal Posts: 41
    If Tories have wins in Scotland, they may not achieve them and look at less seats. May is a pillock. Can a female be a pillock?
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    BBC: Tories taking Aberdeenshire West
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Spreadex back up, midpoint 330 Con seats.
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    I don't think my longshot bet of tories on 450+ seats is looking like a winner...
  • AHMatlock
    AHMatlock Posts: 15
    Wouldn't miss Gobby Soubry in Broxtowe, but am sceptical that we have done that much better in Wales and Scotland if the result is so poor in the English marginals.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited June 2017

    It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.

    :neutral:

  • socialliberal
    socialliberal Posts: 41
    I can't watch. It's PB.com only for me
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Scottish BBC has just said Labour gains are not in Scotland according to Exit Poll analysis. Also Alex Salmond is at risk.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074
    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who was fired by his company?

    He became an Exit Pole!
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    SouthamObserver said:

    Tories will win a majority. But this is shocking for May.

    Nah, it'll be worse than this.

    PM Corbyn with a coalition of chaos.
  • Richard_H
    Richard_H Posts: 48
    Still think a Tory majority is likely, but less than 50 now. Would be surprised if it was a hung parliament. Brexit is likely to die a death in a hung parliament, as there will not be a team with a mandate to negotiate exit terms.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Pound down big across the board - except against the Salvadoran Colon, of course.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    The irony is that Theresa May's straplines and strategy was right. She and Rasputin were just incapable of executing it.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    James Wharton in Stockton South could be in trouble according to Exit Poll.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    I have to say I'm sceptical about all this, though I think it's wonderful if true.
  • waitingfortonight
    waitingfortonight Posts: 54
    Labour candidate for Finchley is head of Jewish Labour Movement.
  • socialliberal
    socialliberal Posts: 41
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.

    He may well be PM in a week.
    Blimey, even more boring that Tezza. It's got to be Gove or Boris.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    https://twitter.com/PolProfSteve/status/872931520822038529
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    How does the exit poll deal with postal votes?
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2017
    not_on_fire said:

    brokenwheel said:

    jonny83 said:

    Robert Hutton‏Verified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago

    Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.

    My thoughts.

    I hope.
    Do you really think John Curtice's team didn't take account of postal votes in their projection)
    Not directly no according to the methodology. I don't know how they take it into account though.
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Next Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson forecast to win
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    BBC predicting Jo Swinson to back in parliament then.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    bigjohnowls said:

    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)

    Some of those Labour gains just look weird. No suggestion that Labour thought they were in with a chance in many of the gains that rob the Tories of their majority.....
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Any chance of a return of George and Dave? It wouldn't be the weirdest thing that's happened this year
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    tlg86 said:

    William_H said:

    Wow, we might go Labour here in Milton Keynes South according to the exit poll. Majority of nearly 9000 and 8000 UKIP supporters. Would be amazing.

    What I'm worried about is that the Tories have been targeting the wrong seats.
    Looks like that on this exit poll!
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    This is just ridiculously surreal. Three successive shock electoral results. Surely the Tories must out-perform this exit poll.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/PolProfSteve/status/872931520822038529

    Yeah, a leadership election right now would be sub-optimal, lol.

    What's GO up to? :p
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Dadge said:

    The battleground graphic on the BBC is flooring me, just as I'm sure it's flooring most of you. Dozens of Labour gains! The Tories only picking up seats in Scotland and Wales.

    I've just come back from final canvassing in Erdington and there's no way that Labour have done this well north of the Watford Gap. No way that there are no Tory gains in England.

    The Tories will have a majority.

    I'm doubling down on Con 350+. (Still small stakes).
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Shipley, the Conservatives have a 71% chance of victory, Labour has a 29% chance of victory
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    AndyJS said:

    Theresa May going down extremely well in Wales and Scotland, extremely badly in London and graduate seats like Warwick, Reading West.

    The University is in Reading East though.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    williamglenn said:

    So it looks like Cameron is still the only Tory leader to win a majority since 1992.

    Perhaps, though the BBC exit poll last time did not predict he would get a majority. The worst BBC exit poll in recent times was 1987 when BBC forecast a 26 seat Thatcher majority and she got a 102 majority so we need to have actual results to confirm
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Aberdeenshire 'first' Tory gain in likelihood, not Berwickshire?
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Casino_Royale said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Tories will win a majority. But this is shocking for May.

    Nah, it'll be worse than this.

    PM Corbyn with a coalition of chaos.
    Think it's a real possibility? Some rainbow coalition/coalition of chaos?
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Jonathan said:

    Exit Poll Breakdown

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373

    Only one Tory gain in England: Clacton.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Chameleon said:

    Big advance in Wales in Scotland (SNP targets on board 4 flipping). Fucking eviscerated in England.

    An ENGLISHMAN'S home is his castle...
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,074
    The_Apocalypse said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)

    WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.
    In 2015 it didn't predict the outright majority the Tories won in the end.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    These seat projections are similar to extrapolating from sub samples. Wouldn't place too much weight on each one
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,347
    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: Mr. Andrew, but how are they divvied up currently?

    76 too close to call means a Lab-SNP coalition could be viable. Or May might increase her majority.

    Confidence & supply much more likely than coalition, I think, Mr.D.
    LibDems burned; everyone shy now.

  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    BF still have Lab most seats at 21.

    the error in the exit poll may be to underestimate Lab gains, with Corbynism sweeping the nation.
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    Disraeli said:

    I bet that the Tories wish that they had gone ahead with the overdue revision the out-of-date constituency boundaries now!

    There were/are doing. If May had waited till next year she could've fought an election on the new boundaries.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Plus leaving free movement unchecked + 100 billion euros to EU to stay in single market, Hammond could do it with LD backing but Farage would not believe his luck and would swiftly take back the leadership from Nuttall
    Con+SNP would give a more workable majority than Con+LD.
    The Tories would rather do a deal with Labour than the SNP, I certainly would
    Neither the SNP nor the Tories could do a deal given the rhetoric.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    So, Fallon?
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