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Odds on exit poll being wildly wrong?0
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AndyJS said:
Labour targets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
Good job I did this spreadsheet after all.
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It means a hard brexit is determined by what the EU wants, not what the UK government wants - we might go for a softer version now, but we're told they won't play ball.The_Apocalypse said:
Huh? Don't know what you mean there.kle4 said:
No we won't - that wasn't within the gift of the Tories.The_Apocalypse said:At least we will get Soft Brexit now....
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Maybe running through fields of wheat was not the naughtiest thing that Theresa has done...0
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I'm talking my book here, but I find it hard to believe that Labour have made inroads into the SNP vote but not the Plaid vote.Paristonda said:I can't get over that SNP number, 34?
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I thought they polled postal voters?jonny83 said:Robert HuttonVerified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago
Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.0 -
My thoughts.jonny83 said:Robert HuttonVerified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago
Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.
I hope.0 -
Which still requires us to complete a formal exit from the Article 50 negotiations with all the humiliating concessions that would require. There's no way a hung parliament would be able to see it through. Brexit is a write off now.MaxPB said:
EEA/EFTA.alex. said:All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
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Imagine if Corbyn had a party behind him for two years rather than two weeks0
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Yup, the Tories went vague to avoid having to hold a position on Brexit and Labour have made huge promises that they will struggle to keep.DavidL said:
It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
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No, I caught a glimpse when they were about to show % estimates of individual seats. Looked like a 1% lead to me. Did others see more?TheScreamingEagles said:
They don't do VI, just seats.scotslass said:what are the voting percentages of the exit poll over UK and Scotland
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She should never have called it. It was not needed.0
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How?Pong said:BREXIT GETS OVERTURNED
YIPEEEE!!0 -
Pushed off the Tower of London with tickets for sale please.foxinsoxuk said:
Or hung, drawn and quartered!Pong said:I think this means Nick Timothy gets his p45.
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Plus leaving free movement unchecked + 100 billion euros to EU to stay in single market, Hammond could do it with LD backing but Farage would not believe his luck and would swiftly take back the leadership from NuttallMaxPB said:
EEA/EFTA.alex. said:All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
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While a few of you are talking about pollsters potentially going out of business, they'll be recommissioned for the next election, their 4th major polling event in 2.2 years, this is great news for them.0
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Listen to this because it's important. An exit poll is not perfect and there is wriggle room. It might result in less seats for Con, Labour most seats, or a Con maj. We don't know yet. So dinna fash yersel just yet.FattyBolger said:I feel like remainers did last year......catastrophe and national humiliation. fuck
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Osborne is a c*nt - he isn't a fucking Tory.
No Tory smiles after this result.0 -
The country don't like turncoats. Remainer one minute arch Leaver the next. It's not a good look.Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
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Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.0
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The new winners are the leftwing tv news media,taken over from the rightwing newspapers.NickPalmer said:
Losers if the poll is confirmed: Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Facebook video creators. How sad!not_on_fire said:ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all
The rumour that Rudd is in trouble in Hastings fits with the reports that Labour was doing well in SE and SW.0 -
2015 exit poll:
Con 316 (actual 330)
Lab 239 (actual 232)
SNP 58 (actual 56)
LD 10 (actual 8)
PC 4 (actual 3)
Green 2 (actual 1)
UKIP 2 (actual 1)
2017 exit poll:
Con 314
Lab 266
SNP 34
LD 14
PC 3
Green 1
UKIP 0
So Tory almost certainly losing seats in England due to gains in Scotland. And overall majority maybe 50/50????0 -
HammondChris said:If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?
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LOL now don't get carried away.Pong said:BREXIT GETS OVERTURNED
YIPEEEE!!
I don't know what to feel about this result, but hopefully whoever governs will not be allowed to go to extremes - that can only be a good thing.
Also, I voted LD and their seat total went up, so feeling a bit smug about that:)0 -
It's a disaste0
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Nah. The youngsters think the oldies screwed the future with Brexit. So in return they're screwing the present.Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
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Well done Corbyn. Fantastic result if the exit poll is right. Can't see May surviving past 9am tomorrow morning.
Another election in three months.0 -
And Mrs May's hubris has cost us 50 million quid, just like Cameron's before.0
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I know one thing another election and the turnout will be massive.0
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Looking at the individual constituency predictions there are some mad percentages ...0
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kle4 said:
Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.
Get a new avatar quick!kle4 said:Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.
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I still think TMICIPMKentRising said:She should never have called it. It was not needed.
for a few days at least.
Presume she has to go without an increased majority0 -
So next Con leader will also have a lack of mandate? 0
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Odds on another election in a few months time? Certainly possible if exit poll is true.0
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Unfortunately the LD total going up means that Tim won't go.0
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That's scaring me more it could still be pm corbyn!!!viewcode said:
Listen to this because it's important. An exit poll is not perfect and there is wriggle room. It might result in less seats for Con, Labour most seats, or a Con maj. We don't know yet. So dinna fash yersel just yet.FattyBolger said:I feel like remainers did last year......catastrophe and national humiliation. fuck
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At this moment in time - I understand how remainers felt when those results came in.0
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It's a journey towards a recognition that it has always been utterly misconceived. This result is a huge landmark on that journey.rcs1000 said:0 -
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 17 min17 minuti fa
Altro
Welsh Labour source: 'The political weather remains extremely difficult, and retaining all our Westminster seats remains a challenge.'
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 10 min10 minuti fa
Altro
Though the Labour source notes the exit poll figures are just a projection and says ‘there’s a long night ahead.‘0 -
The exit poll doesn't, and can't, the way it is constructed. But I think they would assume that, say, old people who vote in person would change their votes in the same way as old people who vote by postal vote.RobD said:
I thought they polled postal voters?jonny83 said:Robert HuttonVerified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago
Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.
We will see. That is the big question. When's the first seat with lots of old voters?0 -
Nick - I don't believe this poll, but if it's close to being right your man has been totally vindicated. He's still not my man, but what a thing!NickPalmer said:
Losers if the poll is confirmed: Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Facebook video creators. How sad!not_on_fire said:ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all
The rumour that Rudd is in trouble in Hastings fits with the reports that Labour was doing well in SE and SW.
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Where can you see them?Scrapheap_as_was said:Looking at the individual constituency predictions there are some mad percentages ...
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This is a complete disaster. Personally expect my pension fund to collapse costing me huge amounts.
Christ knows what will happen if the bearded communist becomes PM0 -
Some of us have been saying that for weeks.KentRising said:She should never have called it. It was not needed.
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Presentationally, yes he was. That was not my issue with him.Jonathan said:
Corbyn was better than May.kle4 said:Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.
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Think the Tories will end up around 330 now.0
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Basically.JosiasJessop said:
Nah. The youngsters think the oldies screwed the future with Brexit. So in return they're screwing the present.Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
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Dimbers has got fed up with the politicians saying "if the exit poll is correct"!0
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IG con midpoint totally not believing the exit polls, going up, now at 331.0
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Who cares about humiliation; we need a good deal. I can live with EEA/EFTA.williamglenn said:
Which still requires us to complete a formal exit from the Article 50 negotiations with all the humiliating concessions that would require. There's no way a hung parliament would be able to see it through. Brexit is a write off now.MaxPB said:
EEA/EFTA.alex. said:All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
If (big if) Lab voters voted to stop Brexit then they might well have succeeded.0 -
Better on policy too.kle4 said:
Presentationally, yes he was. That was not my issue with him.Jonathan said:
Corbyn was better than May.kle4 said:Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.
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It was WFA and social care.kle4 said:Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.
You mess with an Englishman's "castle" and you pay the price...0 -
I'm hearing lots of TCTC seats....0
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Ah.numbertwelve said:
HammondChris said:If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?
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The Tories are still the largest party and their voters strongly voted for Brexit, so no way the Tory Party could reverse Brexit and survive, we would end up with a Canada situation and UKIP perhaps even overtaking them, single market may be possible but even then hard Brexiteers would be unhappywilliamglenn said:
Which still requires us to complete a formal exit from the Article 50 negotiations with all the humiliating concessions that would require. There's no way a hung parliament would be able to see it through. Brexit is a write off now.MaxPB said:
EEA/EFTA.alex. said:All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
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https://twitter.com/FT/status/872925839276613632
How many polling firms might be wondering if their reputations are damaged?0 -
Labour moderates spotted crawling on their bellies toward Jeremy Corbyn.0
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Of all the dumb things this government has done over Brexit, the most most profoundly stupid was to call the election AFTER triggering Article 50.DavidL said:
It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
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I'm surprised Con Maj is favourite.
Losing several seats by 10%
And including lots of Scotland seats.0 -
Yes, I think that's a big failing by a lot of people on the Leave side.rcs1000 said:0 -
Hmm. The complete collapse of UNS means that this poll could potentially still be bollocks. Unlikely though.AndreaParma_82 said:Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 17 min17 minuti fa
Altro
Welsh Labour source: 'The political weather remains extremely difficult, and retaining all our Westminster seats remains a challenge.'
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 10 min10 minuti fa
Altro
Though the Labour source notes the exit poll figures are just a projection and says ‘there’s a long night ahead.‘
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The right opened a can of worms with Brexit. They have lost control of the narrative.DavidL said:
It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
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Do we get the percentage splits for this seat projection? Anyone know?0
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GOOD MORNING VENEZUELA!0
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76 apparently.Mortimer said:I'm hearing lots of TCTC seats....
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Good old Dimbers. Huw Edwards just won't be as good.ThreeQuidder said:Dimbers has got fed up with the politicians saying "if the exit poll is correct"!
Maybe we'll get Dimbers again for the 2017 re-run though!0 -
Laura looks like she's drunk a cup of sick. lol!0
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I'll disagree on that. Better sounding policies.Jonathan said:
Better on policy too.kle4 said:
Presentationally, yes he was. That was not my issue with him.Jonathan said:
Corbyn was better than May.kle4 said:Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.
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BBC: senior Labour figure doesn't think the figures are believable.0
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I've got to say, I'd feel a bit worse if pb tories hadn't been so unbearably smug up until today.0
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Après May le deluge?0
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L Kuenssberg saying both Tories and Labour on ground texting her they don't believe exit poll, presumably they are already seeing votes being counted but we shall see0
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Just think though, if Labour had a decent leader they would be in power now - although May would never have dared call an election in the first place.SouthamObserver said:
Nick - I don't believe this poll, but if it's close to being right your man has been totally vindicated. He's still not my man, but what a thing!NickPalmer said:
Losers if the poll is confirmed: Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Facebook video creators. How sad!not_on_fire said:ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all
The rumour that Rudd is in trouble in Hastings fits with the reports that Labour was doing well in SE and SW.0 -
bloke on Sky reckons Chipping Barnet up for grabs. Really!?0
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I feel quite sanguine, bizarrely.
Changes the narrative to what sort of Brexit we want. So long as we're looking at no progressive alliance (please god no) maybe everyone can come together and try and step back from the extreme.
They should dump May though. Proven to be useless.0 -
The Sunderland and Newcastle results won't tell us much
Nuneaton, Swindon N and Wrexham will give you the first real guide0 -
The Lab/Con minority government bets might still be decent value given the marked reluctance of anyone to consider coalition ?
Bouncing around, but currently something like 30 and 3 respectively on Betfair.
Hating having to agree with McMao on the BBC, but otoh, I've always despised Fallon.0 -
I think that's absolute bullshit, to be honest. The fact is that the EU would be overjoyed if we paid €10bn a year, received no EU spending, and had only limited say in EU laws.kle4 said:
It means a hard brexit is determined by what the EU wants, not what the UK government wants - we might go for a softer version now, but we're told they won't play ball.The_Apocalypse said:
Huh? Don't know what you mean there.kle4 said:
No we won't - that wasn't within the gift of the Tories.The_Apocalypse said:At least we will get Soft Brexit now....
But.
I can't repeat this enough. Brexit is a journey. A three to five year EEA stopgap works for us, and works for the EU.0 -
FFS, the Exit Poll will be right within the MoE.0
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In heaven, Gerald Kaufmann apologises to Michael Foot.0
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I actually did it straight after the 2015 election in order to see what sort of swing Labour would need to win the next election.old_labour said:AndyJS said:Labour targets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
Good job I did this spreadsheet after all.0 -
I said it the day it was called.JosiasJessop said:
Some of us have been saying that for weeks.KentRising said:She should never have called it. It was not needed.
Also predicted a couple of weeks ago the same-sized majority in 2017 as in 2015. Could still be on for that.0 -
Less than a year after winning a majority. Tossers never learn.JonathanD said:
It went insane last June. Tory Brexiteers indulged themselves ahead of the country and are now paying the price.Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
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I'm tired of hearing it's going to be some massive disaster if May/A Tory isn't PM.
As if Hard Brexit wasn't going to be a disaster.
It will probably *not* be a disaster.
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Once people believed in one fairy story they were happy to believe in more, fucking hell. If this is the long term thank fuck I am already planning to emigrate.SouthamObserver said:
The right opened a can of worms with Brexit. They have lost control of the narrative.DavidL said:
It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
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MPs won't go for Leadsom.
Needs big personality - Boris most likely for me.0 -
PB Tories are never not unbearably smugStereotomy said:I've got to say, I'd feel a bit worse if pb tories hadn't been so unbearably smug up until today.
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BBC website...Chameleon said:
Where can you see them?Scrapheap_as_was said:Looking at the individual constituency predictions there are some mad percentages ...
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It was peculiar - so many of us were so certain that meant no early election would happen. The Tories didn't seem prepared, it really seems like they saw the big poll leads and just went for it. The fools.FF43 said:
Of all the dumb things this government has done over Brexit, the most most profoundly stupid was to call the election AFTER triggering Article 50.DavidL said:
It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
Too close to the 2016 vote - the young were not going to make the mistake of not turning up this time.0 -
Lots in Scotland apparently, so if we call 15 TCTC, That's 60 in E&W - so Con could be up to 344 if it's a little low on Con. Buy Con majority 25-50.brokenwheel said:
76 apparently.Mortimer said:I'm hearing lots of TCTC seats....
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Let me correct it for you buddy. Theresa May is an unmitigated disaster...Richard_Nabavi said:What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.
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I would love to see Rudd toppled in Hastings. She is an absolutely horrid woman. I hope Nicholas Wilson gets a good vote on his anti-corruption message. Still think she'll hold though!NickPalmer said:
Losers if the poll is confirmed: Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Facebook video creators. How sad!not_on_fire said:ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all
The rumour that Rudd is in trouble in Hastings fits with the reports that Labour was doing well in SE and SW.0 -
Problem with calling a Brexit election was that Brexit is happening. So what is there to talk about? Everything except Brexit. That seemed to blindside CCHQ.
Then Dementia Tax. Fucking madness. Just hubris - we can talk about the big, unpopular stuff because we are both Govt. and Opposition.
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@holyroodmandy: Quick by-election & @RuthDavidsonMSP becomes an MSP, an MP and PM while @IainMcGill is an MP, MSP & MEP #exitpoll #GE170
