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  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    JonathanD said:

    10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius

    I think it was two hours. The dementia tax policy was the turning point
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    Danny565 said:

    Think it'll be a bit better than that for the Tories, but we're probably talking a majority of 30 max I should think.

    The betting markets also think it will be better for the Tories, but the question is whether there's any basis for that.
  • handandmouse
    handandmouse Posts: 213
    I am overjoyed. Even if this exit poll is (as 2015) underestimating the Tory seat count, it's quite clear that the Tory and right-wing press campaign hasn't had the desired effect of bringing about a landslide for Theresa May. Perhaps the many really will overcome the few for once, despite the best efforts of the Mail and Sun!
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Hard Brexit will survive. On these numbers, there'll probably be no deal that could be agreed by. Parliament.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TM is finished.
  • MattW
    MattW Posts: 28,308
    edited June 2017
    SNP 34? Oooh.
  • Winstanley
    Winstanley Posts: 434
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The exit poll only needs to be slightly wrong for Corbyn to be PM.

    Or for Cons to claw numbers back. Many of these seats must be knife edge
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    Amazing exit poll really. Well done yougov.

    May confirmed as crap, worse Tory campaign in living history.

    Think hard brexit doesn't happen now.
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Blimey!
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Labour targets:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0

    Good job I did this spreadsheet after all.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    If Sunderland shows a massive swing to the Tories, that's be hilarious. Going out on a limb that is not the case.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    Chameleon said:

    How did Theresa fuck this up so badly?

    Cos she is crap mate! Kudos to those PB Tories who said the same.
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius

    I think it was two hours. The dementia tax policy was the turning point
    That fucking manifesto...
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    I wish to take this moment to sincerely commiserate with anybody here who has lost money. I will note my winnings in a moment but firstly I think it's important to recognise the role that luck plays in this and I hope nobody is hurt.

    I also note that exit polls have been wrong in the past
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Bloodbath at CCHQ in the coming days....
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Alistair said:

    My betting balance is totally fucked

    Scon to the rescue. Possibly.

    Marr says sen tories don't believe exit polls.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The tory campaign from the start,the manifesto and then the finish was crap.
  • camel
    camel Posts: 815
    May utterly humilated, eviscerated and soon to be defenstrated.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/amolrajanbbc/status/872923952913555461
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    If that exit poll is understating Labour by only a few seats, Corbyn is PM.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/872922794073481216
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    JonathanD said:

    10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius

    If Cameron had won the referendum there would be no Brexit and no general election
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    MattW said:

    SNP 34?

    He did say to treat that with caution- I think given the massive SNP majorities, they may well end up doing quite a bit better.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Exit poll may not be correct.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32428768

    1992 for example.

    Will wait and see how the results come in.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    MattW said:

    SNP 34?

    In line with Ave it projection - could be less for SNP

  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Where is isam to tell us the polls are wrong?
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    The bedwetters can claim vindication now. Even if this is wrong and tories eek a majority it has clearly been a failure for may.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    If it's right, we are all indebted to David Herdson for giving us a warning.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    dr_spyn said:

    Exit poll may not be correct.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32428768

    1992 for example.

    Will wait and see how the results come in.

    Yes, Labour could yet end up the largest party...
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    bazzer72 said:

    It feels like a hung parilament is huge value at 2.3 odds against, given historical accuracy of exit polls? people just not waking up to the reality yet...

    2015 projected a hung parliament
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    The stage is set for the return of Super Nigel Farage!
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    kle4 said:

    If Sunderland shows a massive swing to the Tories, that's be hilarious. Going out on a limb that is not the case.

    Well it's that UKIP vote which is what's interesting. If it swigs back to Labour then this is probably right, if not then it's majority time and hopefully profit time!
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it still projects a Con maj
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    waitingfortonight said:

    Oh, sterling already tanking. Down around 2% in the last couple of minutes.

    Will crash much harder if this is correct.

    Drop in Sterling will be my only consolation if all my bets lose. I get paid in USD and the mortgage is in GBP.
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,357
    Well at least I managed to lay my Labour minority govt insurance bet at a good profit (& left enough on still to provide some cover). Leaving the Cons minority govt position open for now...
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    SouthamObserver said:

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    I'm not so sure about that. Sunderland Central will tell us a lot....
  • Winstanley
    Winstanley Posts: 434
    JonathanD said:

    10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius

    Cameron whipped up antiEU feeling for career purposes and chose to hold the ref. May, much as I dislike her, was handed a difficult situation. Made worse maybe cos it was madked by media sycophancy
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Mexicanpete said:

    Oh no!

    A Landslide for Boris in the autumn it is then!

    It's only a poll! Reality will prevail, perhaps not quite the reality we had expected!

    That would only be if Corbyn became PM on a soft Brexit platform and Boris became PM on a hard Brexit platform
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    SouthamObserver said:

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    I agree.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    I wish to politely point out that if this poll is correct, I have won £50 on my £450@1/9 Con most seats.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    SouthamObserver said:

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    1992 was not an exit poll.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Amber Rudd in trouble!
  • waitingfortonight
    waitingfortonight Posts: 54
    I just wonder if the Tories have been shy even coming out of the polling station.

    The Labour supporters on my Facebook have been more vituperative than ever, they are seething with hatred for Tories.
  • Typo
    Typo Posts: 195
    Tories don't seem to be coming out and saying the exit poll is a load of baloney.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited June 2017
    BBC: "Tories in trouble in Hastings".
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Tories in trouble in Hastings!
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Alistair said:

    Where is isam to tell us the polls are wrong?

    I am here! Were they right then?
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/amolrajanbbc/status/872923952913555461

    That's DavidL's champers bottle hitting the floor
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    BBC: Amber Rudd may be in trouble.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Amber Rudd in trouble?
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Hastings.

    This just gets better and better.
  • Lucian_Fletcher
    Lucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    DUP are utterly beside themselves with joy.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    not_on_fire said:

    Tories in trouble in Hastings!

    So much for Rudd being next leader!
  • AHMatlock
    AHMatlock Posts: 15
    Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    not_on_fire said:

    Tories in trouble in Hastings!

    They would be in trouble there with these figures, no doubt about it.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Theresa May has vindicated Gordon Brown's decision not to hold an election in 2007
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    SouthamObserver said:

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    How far out was it in 1992? Because unless it is by 50 Con seats, we won't have a result which resulted in a more stable situation than the one we started with.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Winstanley said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The exit poll only needs to be slightly wrong for Corbyn to be PM.

    Or for Cons to claw numbers back. Many of these seats must be knife edge
    Lots of recounts I reckon.....
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    WOW
  • rural_voter
    rural_voter Posts: 2,038
    williamglenn said:

    Brexit negotiations start in 11 days...

    The laughter from the EU in Brussels must be audible on the White Cliffs of Dover.

    In 11 days:
    'Good morning Mrs May, here is a document with our negotiating position, prepared whle you were away increasing your majority (chortle) ...'

    I'm posting on this topic as I can't rebalance my bets; all markets seem to be suspended.
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    ..how often are these exit polls wrong?!
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    SNP 34?

    He did say to treat that with caution- I think given the massive SNP majorities, they may well end up doing quite a bit better.
    SNP Majorities were built on the back of MASS Labour to SNP switches.

    Why not back again?
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    isam said:

    The stage is set for the return of Super Nigel Farage!

    He must be grinning right now.
  • not_on_fire
    not_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    So what is the explanation? Has the much expected UKIP>CON switch become a UKIP>LAB ?
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    No one thought Bedford would be in play.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Betfair now Con 2, Hung 2.1. Which is the value?
  • dodrade
    dodrade Posts: 597
    Scottish Labour in biggest comeback since Lazarus perhaps?
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Boris takes over as Con leader and back to the polls for another go in October?
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    This is all totally fucked. A year ago someone fiddled with the randomness generator. Brexit. Trump. Corbyn.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    BenedictWhite said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    I agree.
    Why would there be shy Tories this time? We are all Brexiters now.
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    AHMatlock said:

    Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...

    1922 committee will get those letters very quick.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    No regional splits on the exit poll?
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017
    not_on_fire said:

    So what is the explanation? Has the much expected UKIP>CON switch become a UKIP>LAB ?

    We got a lot of Con->Lab potential switchers in the final days -- people saying their heart was saying Labour, but they weren't 100% sure yet.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Have to say, this was the worst Tory campaign I've ever seen. Theresa May needs to go, even if we scrape 330 seats like we have now
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theresa May has vindicated Gordon Brown's decision not to hold an election in 2007

    Yes.
  • Toms
    Toms Posts: 2,478
    The following is a purely personal comment:
    Hoo haa. Fingers crossed, from the exit poll it looks like
    bye bye UKIP and welcome back LibDems (a bit). Madness: I'll be sad if it be not true.
    Wouldn't it be fine if we could also disentangle our short & curlies from Brexit?
  • Winstanley
    Winstanley Posts: 434
    People on this train are coming up with all the Lab talking points from the csmpaign to explain it. It's sunk in somehow
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour must be picking up about 10 seats from the SNP in Scotland.
  • socialliberal
    socialliberal Posts: 41
    The public were asked if you wanted Teresa May or a Marxist. They chose the Marxist!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    *If* this is correct, I would just like to point out that I've called LD seats pretty well at three elections in a row: 2015, Holyrood 2016, and now 2017.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Razedabode said:

    ..how often are these exit polls wrong?!

    Well in 2015 they predicted Con 316, Con ended up on 331
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    SNP 34?

    He did say to treat that with caution- I think given the massive SNP majorities, they may well end up doing quite a bit better.
    SNP Majorities were built on the back of MASS Labour to SNP switches.

    Why not back again?
    It's possible, but they'd have to win it all back, so some may not be quite as dramatic.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2017
    AHMatlock said:

    Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...

    And replace her with who? Don't forget if she has got 40%+ in the polls and the possibility of another election within 6 months, it would be a big risk to replace her if they get it wrong.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If there is a disproportionate swing to the Tories in the oldies vote, as suggested by many opinion polls, then May could still pull this off...
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,728
    What a fucking shit show.....

    R5 presenters can't contain their glee...champagne corks are popping there.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Argyll & Bute, 6-1 LibDem shot. PLEASE.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theresa May has vindicated Gordon Brown's decision not to hold an election in 2007

    Gordon Borwn is a fucking Titan compared to the invisible, blank slate that is Theresa May.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited June 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    Pessimist! Great news for those who want to destroy Brexit. My French chums won't think we're all shits anymore
  • ThomasNashe
    ThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Anyone know what's happening in Putney? Justin Greening could be in trouble?
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Exit:

    Croydon Central
    Bolton West
    Bedford
    Brighton Kempton

    All Lab by 10%
  • atia2
    atia2 Posts: 207
    Delurking to ask how the PB Tories imagined that a campaign this vacuous and this inept would have no electoral consequences? If that were true, we might as well do away with election campaigns altogether.
  • HaroldO
    HaroldO Posts: 1,185
    This is the worst possible result, but all I can see on facebook is "huh, huh at least the Tories won't win". Labour or Tory government is better than no government!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Hats off to Survation
  • ThePonderer
    ThePonderer Posts: 23
    And people sneered at YouGov predicting Labour winning Canterbury...
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    socialliberal said:

    The public were asked if you wanted Teresa May or a Marxist. They chose the Marxist!

    Um, no they didn't - if this is right the Tories are still the largest party by some distance. But clearly a lot of people did choose Corbyn. Better campaign, pipe dream manifesto.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    alex. said:

    AHMatlock said:

    Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...

    And replace her with who?
    A cardboard cutout? Would win on the personality stakes.
  • noisywinter
    noisywinter Posts: 249
    May better resign tonight... utterly useless
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hats off to Survation

    Survation may not be right.

    Could easily be approx Con +4 or Con +5
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