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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542
    JonathanD said:

    10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius

    I think it was two hours. The dementia tax policy was the turning point
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,137
    Danny565 said:

    Think it'll be a bit better than that for the Tories, but we're probably talking a majority of 30 max I should think.

    The betting markets also think it will be better for the Tories, but the question is whether there's any basis for that.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    I am overjoyed. Even if this exit poll is (as 2015) underestimating the Tory seat count, it's quite clear that the Tory and right-wing press campaign hasn't had the desired effect of bringing about a landslide for Theresa May. Perhaps the many really will overcome the few for once, despite the best efforts of the Mail and Sun!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,104
    Hard Brexit will survive. On these numbers, there'll probably be no deal that could be agreed by. Parliament.
  • TM is finished.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 7,277
    edited June 2017
    SNP 34? Oooh.
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434

    The exit poll only needs to be slightly wrong for Corbyn to be PM.

    Or for Cons to claw numbers back. Many of these seats must be knife edge
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,216
    Amazing exit poll really. Well done yougov.

    May confirmed as crap, worse Tory campaign in living history.

    Think hard brexit doesn't happen now.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,645
    Blimey!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,758
    If Sunderland shows a massive swing to the Tories, that's be hilarious. Going out on a limb that is not the case.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,597
    Chameleon said:

    How did Theresa fuck this up so badly?

    Cos she is crap mate! Kudos to those PB Tories who said the same.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,379
    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 835
    MaxPB said:

    JonathanD said:

    10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius

    I think it was two hours. The dementia tax policy was the turning point
    That fucking manifesto...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    I wish to take this moment to sincerely commiserate with anybody here who has lost money. I will note my winnings in a moment but firstly I think it's important to recognise the role that luck plays in this and I hope nobody is hurt.

    I also note that exit polls have been wrong in the past
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,812
    Bloodbath at CCHQ in the coming days....
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    Alistair said:

    My betting balance is totally fucked

    Scon to the rescue. Possibly.

    Marr says sen tories don't believe exit polls.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The tory campaign from the start,the manifesto and then the finish was crap.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    May utterly humilated, eviscerated and soon to be defenstrated.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,104
    If that exit poll is understating Labour by only a few seats, Corbyn is PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,095
    JonathanD said:

    10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius

    If Cameron had won the referendum there would be no Brexit and no general election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,758
    MattW said:

    SNP 34?

    He did say to treat that with caution- I think given the massive SNP majorities, they may well end up doing quite a bit better.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    MattW said:

    SNP 34?

    In line with Ave it projection - could be less for SNP

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,987
    Exit poll may not be correct.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32428768

    1992 for example.

    Will wait and see how the results come in.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,722
    Where is isam to tell us the polls are wrong?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,813
    The bedwetters can claim vindication now. Even if this is wrong and tories eek a majority it has clearly been a failure for may.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,994
    If it's right, we are all indebted to David Herdson for giving us a warning.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,077
    dr_spyn said:

    Exit poll may not be correct.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32428768

    1992 for example.

    Will wait and see how the results come in.

    Yes, Labour could yet end up the largest party...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    bazzer72 said:

    It feels like a hung parilament is huge value at 2.3 odds against, given historical accuracy of exit polls? people just not waking up to the reality yet...

    2015 projected a hung parliament
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542
    kle4 said:

    If Sunderland shows a massive swing to the Tories, that's be hilarious. Going out on a limb that is not the case.

    Well it's that UKIP vote which is what's interesting. If it swigs back to Labour then this is probably right, if not then it's majority time and hopefully profit time!
  • isamisam Posts: 35,516
    The stage is set for the return of Super Nigel Farage!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it still projects a Con maj
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,859

    Oh, sterling already tanking. Down around 2% in the last couple of minutes.

    Will crash much harder if this is correct.

    Drop in Sterling will be my only consolation if all my bets lose. I get paid in USD and the mortgage is in GBP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,538
    Well at least I managed to lay my Labour minority govt insurance bet at a good profit (& left enough on still to provide some cover). Leaving the Cons minority govt position open for now...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,794

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    I'm not so sure about that. Sunderland Central will tell us a lot....
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    JonathanD said:

    10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius

    Cameron whipped up antiEU feeling for career purposes and chose to hold the ref. May, much as I dislike her, was handed a difficult situation. Made worse maybe cos it was madked by media sycophancy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,095

    Oh no!

    A Landslide for Boris in the autumn it is then!

    It's only a poll! Reality will prevail, perhaps not quite the reality we had expected!

    That would only be if Corbyn became PM on a soft Brexit platform and Boris became PM on a hard Brexit platform
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    I agree.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,916
    I wish to politely point out that if this poll is correct, I have won £50 on my £[email protected]/9 Con most seats.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,847

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    1992 was not an exit poll.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Amber Rudd in trouble!
  • I just wonder if the Tories have been shy even coming out of the polling station.

    The Labour supporters on my Facebook have been more vituperative than ever, they are seething with hatred for Tories.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Tories don't seem to be coming out and saying the exit poll is a load of baloney.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,812
    edited June 2017
    BBC: "Tories in trouble in Hastings".
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,082
    Tories in trouble in Hastings!
  • isamisam Posts: 35,516
    Alistair said:

    Where is isam to tell us the polls are wrong?

    I am here! Were they right then?
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Scott_P said:
    That's DavidL's champers bottle hitting the floor
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,223
    BBC: Amber Rudd may be in trouble.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,633
    Amber Rudd in trouble?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,059
    Hastings.

    This just gets better and better.
  • DUP are utterly beside themselves with joy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279

    Tories in trouble in Hastings!

    So much for Rudd being next leader!
  • AHMatlockAHMatlock Posts: 15
    Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Tories in trouble in Hastings!

    They would be in trouble there with these figures, no doubt about it.
  • Theresa May has vindicated Gordon Brown's decision not to hold an election in 2007
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,758

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    How far out was it in 1992? Because unless it is by 50 Con seats, we won't have a result which resulted in a more stable situation than the one we started with.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 40,123

    The exit poll only needs to be slightly wrong for Corbyn to be PM.

    Or for Cons to claw numbers back. Many of these seats must be knife edge
    Lots of recounts I reckon.....
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,030
    WOW
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 1,967

    Brexit negotiations start in 11 days...

    The laughter from the EU in Brussels must be audible on the White Cliffs of Dover.

    In 11 days:
    'Good morning Mrs May, here is a document with our negotiating position, prepared whle you were away increasing your majority (chortle) ...'

    I'm posting on this topic as I can't rebalance my bets; all markets seem to be suspended.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,722
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    SNP 34?

    He did say to treat that with caution- I think given the massive SNP majorities, they may well end up doing quite a bit better.
    SNP Majorities were built on the back of MASS Labour to SNP switches.

    Why not back again?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,216
    ..how often are these exit polls wrong?!
  • glwglw Posts: 7,246
    isam said:

    The stage is set for the return of Super Nigel Farage!

    He must be grinning right now.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,082
    So what is the explanation? Has the much expected UKIP>CON switch become a UKIP>LAB ?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,866
    No one thought Bedford would be in play.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,859
    Betfair now Con 2, Hung 2.1. Which is the value?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 548
    Scottish Labour in biggest comeback since Lazarus perhaps?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,905
    Boris takes over as Con leader and back to the polls for another go in October?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,109
    This is all totally fucked. A year ago someone fiddled with the randomness generator. Brexit. Trump. Corbyn.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,722

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    I agree.
    Why would there be shy Tories this time? We are all Brexiters now.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 835
    AHMatlock said:

    Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...

    1922 committee will get those letters very quick.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 40,123
    No regional splits on the exit poll?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2017

    So what is the explanation? Has the much expected UKIP>CON switch become a UKIP>LAB ?

    We got a lot of Con->Lab potential switchers in the final days -- people saying their heart was saying Labour, but they weren't 100% sure yet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542
    Have to say, this was the worst Tory campaign I've ever seen. Theresa May needs to go, even if we scrape 330 seats like we have now
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Theresa May has vindicated Gordon Brown's decision not to hold an election in 2007

    Yes.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,129
    The following is a purely personal comment:
    Hoo haa. Fingers crossed, from the exit poll it looks like
    bye bye UKIP and welcome back LibDems (a bit). Madness: I'll be sad if it be not true.
    Wouldn't it be fine if we could also disentangle our short & curlies from Brexit?
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    People on this train are coming up with all the Lab talking points from the csmpaign to explain it. It's sunk in somehow
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour must be picking up about 10 seats from the SNP in Scotland.
  • The public were asked if you wanted Teresa May or a Marxist. They chose the Marxist!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,847
    *If* this is correct, I would just like to point out that I've called LD seats pretty well at three elections in a row: 2015, Holyrood 2016, and now 2017.
  • ..how often are these exit polls wrong?!

    Well in 2015 they predicted Con 316, Con ended up on 331
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,758
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    SNP 34?

    He did say to treat that with caution- I think given the massive SNP majorities, they may well end up doing quite a bit better.
    SNP Majorities were built on the back of MASS Labour to SNP switches.

    Why not back again?
    It's possible, but they'd have to win it all back, so some may not be quite as dramatic.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2017
    AHMatlock said:

    Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...

    And replace her with who? Don't forget if she has got 40%+ in the polls and the possibility of another election within 6 months, it would be a big risk to replace her if they get it wrong.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    If there is a disproportionate swing to the Tories in the oldies vote, as suggested by many opinion polls, then May could still pull this off...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,861
    What a fucking shit show.....

    R5 presenters can't contain their glee...champagne corks are popping there.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,137
    If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,847
    Argyll & Bute, 6-1 LibDem shot. PLEASE.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,722

    Theresa May has vindicated Gordon Brown's decision not to hold an election in 2007

    Gordon Borwn is a fucking Titan compared to the invisible, blank slate that is Theresa May.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,136
    edited June 2017

    This exit poll is bollocks. This is 1992 all over again.

    Pessimist! Great news for those who want to destroy Brexit. My French chums won't think we're all shits anymore
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,303
    Anyone know what's happening in Putney? Justin Greening could be in trouble?
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    Delurking to ask how the PB Tories imagined that a campaign this vacuous and this inept would have no electoral consequences? If that were true, we might as well do away with election campaigns altogether.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,223
    Exit:

    Croydon Central
    Bolton West
    Bedford
    Brighton Kempton

    All Lab by 10%
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    This is the worst possible result, but all I can see on facebook is "huh, huh at least the Tories won't win". Labour or Tory government is better than no government!
  • Hats off to Survation
  • And people sneered at YouGov predicting Labour winning Canterbury...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,758

    The public were asked if you wanted Teresa May or a Marxist. They chose the Marxist!

    Um, no they didn't - if this is right the Tories are still the largest party by some distance. But clearly a lot of people did choose Corbyn. Better campaign, pipe dream manifesto.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,109
    alex. said:

    AHMatlock said:

    Well, if the exit poll is accurate or very close, I'm not sure how Theresa May can survive as leader. Surely the Backbench will want her out fast unless the majority is at least as large as Cameron, and even that May not be enough...

    And replace her with who?
    A cardboard cutout? Would win on the personality stakes.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 232
    May better resign tonight... utterly useless
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,223
    edited June 2017

    Hats off to Survation

    Survation may not be right.

    Could easily be approx Con +4 or Con +5
This discussion has been closed.