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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:
    I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
    That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
    SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
    The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.

    There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
    I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Further Norwich South Anecdotes:

    Mischievous leaflet put out by Labour types last night claiming that Green candidate was recommending voting for Clive Lewis: "I Love Green but I'm Voting for Clive". Green candidate denies any pact and urges people to vote for him. Those crazy Momentum guys!

    This might explain high turnout in 'Golden Triangle' wards. If as a result, Greens and Labour start to cancel each other out in the terraced streets, the Tory might, just might come up the middle from voters in leafier Eaton, New Costessey, Bowthorpe and the nicer parts of Lakenham & Town Close.

    Meanwhile LibDem candidate tweets they've abandoned the campaigning in the seat [which they won in 2010] to shore-up Norman Lamb in NorthNorfolk. Squeaky bum time for Norman and leaving Eaton ward undefended.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,389

    I've put an edited copy of AndyJS's spreadsheet here:

    I have updated it so that 2017 figures can be entered to calculate running totals. I will be editing it for a while but not all night.

    If anyone wants to get edit access to my copy (as opposed to downloading it and playing with it) email me at benedictmpwhite at gmail dhat com.

    Many thanks to Andy JS for all his hard work.

    No link?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    The SNP should lose 8 to the Tories, 2 to the LDs and 1 to Labour. That takes them down to 45 seats.
  • handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    edited June 2017
    I'd like to be able to bet with, rather than against, my preferred outcome - but alas I don't think it will come to pass.

    Positions: BUY Tory seats for £5 at 362-364 seats on Spreadex
    BACK Tory majority at 1.24 on Betfair, for £200 profit in the (expected) event
    Various small constituency and miscellaneous bets on Betfair

    I'm expecting a Tory majority of around 70
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    jonny83 said:

    Think there will be a lot of torn Labour voters out there tonight? Some feeling that Corbyn has to go but know it might take a big Conservative result to force that change? Some perhaps hoping it is a 100 or more Tory majority so to get rid of Corbyn?

    There is a real danger tonight he could do well enough to stay on especially in terms of percentage of the vote. I guess there is the argument if he increases say the vote share that Miliband got that his politics is a viable brand and the country might be open to a hard left government. But if Corbyn is still a major turn off they might never go all the way in letting Labour back in.

    If I was a Labour voter I might want a pasting tonight, get rid of Corbyn and go back to the center left hoping that Brexit damages the Conservatives badly and ready to take over at the next election.

    I'm guessing that even if Corbyn increases the Labour share by just 0.5% he'll use it as a reason to stay on, no matter how badly he does in terms of seats.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678
    My daughter has had a gazillion adverts from the SNP (2 just now). She is 16 and we live in Surrey.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    Roger said:

    Oldies for Jez.

    https://twitter.com/_AngelaLansbury/status/872559410379444224

    I actually think this is quite a cool celeb endorsement. Obviously runs in the family.

    That's elegant. Any advance on two seats for Labour in Scotland tonight?
    I think your rellie is safe. I'd be surprised if SLab get more than 3 unless there really is something tectonic going on under the surface. Reasonable chance of SLab getting a higher vote share than SCons which would put Ruth 'smasher of tomorrows, sneaky recorder of telephone convos, deleter of tweets' Davidson's gas at a peep.

    I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Apologies if this has been asked repeatedly but is there a link to the spreadsheet @AndyJS that is going to be updated dynamically through the night?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    I bedwetted out of the spreads last night.

    Now trying to decide whether to go back in, and onto what.

    I did the same about a week ago, but just sold half my stake. Glad I did because I would otherwise have been a nervous wreck by now.
    You still have half open then?
    Yes, but if I were starting with a blank sheet now I'd be a seller at 207, for small stakes.
    I've sold at £10.

    Already sort of regretting, but that's because I'm a big jessie.
    Same stake as me, but due to earlier trading I'm on at 180. I'm expecting a result very close to 200 but can cope with anything but a complete meltdown - under 150 would be ugly, but I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen.
    I have a stop-loss at £250, I think.

    I presume that also equates to a "stop-gain" as well though.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    hunchman said:

    Interesting article that references Atul Hatwal's article on Labour Uncut:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/06/labour-reckoning

    For some reason /i was grinning from ear to ear as I read that

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I've put an edited copy of AndyJS's spreadsheet here:

    I have updated it so that 2017 figures can be entered to calculate running totals. I will be editing it for a while but not all night.

    If anyone wants to get edit access to my copy (as opposed to downloading it and playing with it) email me at benedictmpwhite at gmail dhat com.

    Many thanks to Andy JS for all his hard work.

    Sounds interesting, but I can't see anything after the colon.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Who voted in the most unusual polling station.
    Saw a train carriage used Yorkshire.
    Mine, a boring old church hall.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    tlg86 said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:
    I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
    You are joking, aren't you? If there's one **** I want to see the back of it's him.
    Yeah...please let him lose. (I think he will).
  • Struggling to find much value on the markets. Only bet so far is Con in Thornbury at 3/10

    Like most people thinking 80-100 Con maj due to many young people not being registered and due to Lab's vote being less efficiently distributed.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:
    I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
    That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
    SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
    The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.

    There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
    I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
    In the unlikely event he does go down we can mark it down as a self-decapitation !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Apologies if this has been asked repeatedly but is there a link to the spreadsheet @AndyJS that is going to be updated dynamically through the night?

    Benedict might be doing one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    bunnco said:

    Further Norwich South Anecdotes:

    Mischievous leaflet put out by Labour types last night claiming that Green candidate was recommending voting for Clive Lewis: "I Love Green but I'm Voting for Clive". Green candidate denies any pact and urges people to vote for him. Those crazy Momentum guys!

    This might explain high turnout in 'Golden Triangle' wards. If as a result, Greens and Labour start to cancel each other out in the terraced streets, the Tory might, just might come up the middle from voters in leafier Eaton, New Costessey, Bowthorpe and the nicer parts of Lakenham & Town Close.

    Meanwhile LibDem candidate tweets they've abandoned the campaigning in the seat [which they won in 2010] to shore-up Norman Lamb in NorthNorfolk. Squeaky bum time for Norman and leaving Eaton ward undefended.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.

    Honestly the Greens will all vote Labour. They won't risk a Tory (I think)
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    AndyJS said:

    From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:

    "There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."

    They’ve had seven weeks to get their names on the local register. They’ll know for next time.
    If they registered before the deadline then they have every right to be on the register. Shocking failure by the council.
    If the polling officer believes they have a jusyfiable don't they get a different coloured paper that will only be counted if it could have affected the result. I may have dreamt this though
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    kjh said:

    My daughter has had a gazillion adverts from the SNP (2 just now). She is 16 and we live in Surrey.

    Well, she is old enough to vote for Scottish independence :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    nunu said:

    Can't believe Sunil's elbow has the Tory lead exacty the same as the actual lead in 2015. Is this all gonna be for nothing?

    Could well be. Add in Scottish gains, and depending how things work out in marginals and the majority is a bit bigger, but largely a waste.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:
    I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
    That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
    SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
    The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.

    There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
    I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
    The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.

    The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.

    Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,826

    Roger said:

    Oldies for Jez.

    https://twitter.com/_AngelaLansbury/status/872559410379444224

    I actually think this is quite a cool celeb endorsement. Obviously runs in the family.

    That's elegant. Any advance on two seats for Labour in Scotland tonight?
    I think your rellie is safe. I'd be surprised if SLab get more than 3 unless there really is something tectonic going on under the surface. Reasonable chance of SLab getting a higher vote share than SCons which would put Ruth 'smasher of tomorrows, sneaky recorder of telephone convos, deleter of tweets' Davidson's gas at a peep.

    I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.
    I believe East Lothian is worth a bet on Labour. Have you any knowledge?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kjh said:

    My daughter has had a gazillion adverts from the SNP (2 just now). She is 16 and we live in Surrey.

    Playing the long game, when she sets off to Uni at At Andrews she turns into a Yes voter.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    OUT said:

    Who voted in the most unusual polling station.
    Saw a train carriage used Yorkshire.
    Mine, a boring old church hall.

    I no longer vote at a polling place that is outside my Constituency.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,273

    I bedwetted out of the spreads last night.

    Now trying to decide whether to go back in, and onto what.

    I did the same about a week ago, but just sold half my stake. Glad I did because I would otherwise have been a nervous wreck by now.
    You still have half open then?
    Yes, but if I were starting with a blank sheet now I'd be a seller at 207, for small stakes.
    I've sold at £10.

    Already sort of regretting, but that's because I'm a big jessie.
    Same stake as me, but due to earlier trading I'm on at 180. I'm expecting a result very close to 200 but can cope with anything but a complete meltdown - under 150 would be ugly, but I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen.
    I have a stop-loss at £250, I think.

    I presume that also equates to a "stop-gain" as well though.
    It would certainly cut both ways.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Apologies if this has been asked repeatedly but is there a link to the spreadsheet @AndyJS that is going to be updated dynamically through the night?

    I'll be doing my version for a while, see my post below for my email of you'd like to help out. It's here:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzHr6kGmnaPqF_kzjODs0rUGOAvTE3F71rJ119yRvak/edit#gid=0
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    AndyJS said:

    I've put an edited copy of AndyJS's spreadsheet here:

    I have updated it so that 2017 figures can be entered to calculate running totals. I will be editing it for a while but not all night.

    If anyone wants to get edit access to my copy (as opposed to downloading it and playing with it) email me at benedictmpwhite at gmail dhat com.

    Many thanks to Andy JS for all his hard work.

    Sounds interesting, but I can't see anything after the colon.
    Try:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzHr6kGmnaPqF_kzjODs0rUGOAvTE3F71rJ119yRvak/edit#gid=0
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    Sky News Election Night coverage starts in 5 minutes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The SeanT demographic have voted

    @geraintgriffith: I'm voting Labour because I believe in a fairer society for EVERYONE. And because socialist birds are dirty.

    Bedwetting index update

    The man himself is porting from Rome. Not in an upbeat mood. Predicting small if any Tory gains. All this for nothing...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    One hour, four and a half minutes until the exit poll.

    Thirty four minutes until I open a bottle of wine.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    @Scott_P Did you go Lib Dem or Tory in the end ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Looks like Ceredigion is to be among the earlier declarations, should be a god sign how bad a night it is for the LDs.

    Con Maj 40 predicted still though.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Pulpstar said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I think turnout in the shires will be down. I think turnout of blue-collar Tories will be up. That's who May needs.

    Blue collar Tories will turn out.
    RoyalBlue said:

    I think turnout in the shires will be down. I think turnout of blue-collar Tories will be up. That's who May needs.

    I think the opposite. Turnout up in the shires from what I've heard...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    @Scott_P Did you go Lib Dem or Tory in the end ?

    I did not support the local Tory Brexiteer
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    Still feel Tories will get majority of c.80. Hoping Labour don't fall below 200 and Lib Dem get at least 10.

    Have to be up early to go to Bristol for a meeting in the morning so will be trying not to stay up late. Then Stratford races tomorrow evening so it could be a while before I get to digest results.

    To be honest despite being a left liberal I'm relaxed at a Tory majority. The next 5 years are going to be a shit sandwich when all sorts of problems come home to roost. I'm glad it'll be on the Tories watch.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,011
    I have spent the day in Sheffield and Leeds. Surprisingly little signs of activity in Hallam, more in Central, and virtually nothing elsewhere. Amazing amount of posters in Leeds NW - they have a local policy of allowing stakeboards on highway verges and central reservations. Mostly Labour in Headingly and but increasingly LD north of the ring road. Also of interest is that the LD posters say Re-elect Greg and Greg it is. The only other similar example of this I know is Tessa(Munt) in Wells.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    61 minutes till I hit the whisky and start learning the Venezuelan national anthem.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,751
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Oldies for Jez.

    https://twitter.com/_AngelaLansbury/status/872559410379444224

    I actually think this is quite a cool celeb endorsement. Obviously runs in the family.

    That's elegant. Any advance on two seats for Labour in Scotland tonight?
    I think your rellie is safe. I'd be surprised if SLab get more than 3 unless there really is something tectonic going on under the surface. Reasonable chance of SLab getting a higher vote share than SCons which would put Ruth 'smasher of tomorrows, sneaky recorder of telephone convos, deleter of tweets' Davidson's gas at a peep.

    I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.
    I believe East Lothian is worth a bet on Labour. Have you any knowledge?
    Dunno is the honest answer. Kerevan is a strong candidate and quite a lefty (ex Marxist, ex Labour etc), so he might be able to disarm any Corbyn surge.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Andrew said:

    61 minutes till I hit the whisky and start learning the Venezuelan national anthem.

    make that 60 minutes :o
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    One hour to go and I am already bricking it!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,119
    One Hour!!!!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I feel sick.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    kle4 said:

    Looks like Ceredigion is to be among the earlier declarations, should be a god sign how bad a night it is for the LDs.

    Con Maj 40 predicted still though.

    Ceredgion: the question is can the LDs persuade the Conservatives to tactically vote for them to avoid a Plaid win?

    The answer is, they can *probably* persuade enough. But it'll probably be a seat where the gap between LD, PC and Con shrinks dramatically.

    After Leeds NW, Southport, C&W and North Norfolk, it's probably the next most vulnerable LD seat.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    rcs1000 said:

    One hour, four and a half minutes until the exit poll.

    Thirty four minutes until I open a bottle of wine.

    I seem to have finished the bottle. Luckily, further to the earlier discussion of whiskies earlier, I remembered have at least half a bottle of Scapa.
  • OUT said:

    Who voted in the most unusual polling station.
    Saw a train carriage used Yorkshire.
    Mine, a boring old church hall.

    I vote on a basketball court.
  • GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    Is there a bellweather constituency? A constituency which gets it right almost all the time? In the US theres a county in Indiana that has got elections right for decades for example?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Project Shit-Your-Pants.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Looks like Ceredigion is to be among the earlier declarations, should be a god sign how bad a night it is for the LDs.

    Con Maj 40 predicted still though.

    Ceredgion: the question is can the LDs persuade the Conservatives to tactically vote for them to avoid a Plaid win?

    The answer is, they can *probably* persuade enough. But it'll probably be a seat where the gap between LD, PC and Con shrinks dramatically.

    After Leeds NW, Southport, C&W and North Norfolk, it's probably the next most vulnerable LD seat.
    Interesting, as it seems practically every model thinks they can manage it - I guess due to uncertainty of who would snatch it up (saw one which had it as a four way)
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:
    I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
    That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
    SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
    The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.

    There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
    I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
    The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.

    The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.

    Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
    SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    I'm more relaxed than I was in 2015!

    But I could be wrong! :lol:
  • Garza said:

    Is there a bellweather constituency? A constituency which gets it right almost all the time? In the US theres a county in Indiana that has got elections right for decades for example?

    Dartford most reliable since 1964.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellwether#United_Kingdom
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Update from Birkhill. Still going like a fair. Turnout exceptional, at a level not seen since the referendum. Not so much in Dundee City apparently.

    Dare I believe this is when Scotland does indeed say "enough".
  • GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    Scott_P said:

    The SeanT demographic have voted

    @geraintgriffith: I'm voting Labour because I believe in a fairer society for EVERYONE. And because socialist birds are dirty.

    Bedwetting index update

    The man himself is porting from Rome. Not in an upbeat mood. Predicting small if any Tory gains. All this for nothing...

    Clearly he hasn't been to a Tory Youth Freshers Piss Up in Uni, the Tory girls are wild, and far more beautiful :-D.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    I've been feeling pretty confident all day that my bedwetting tendencies were in check, but they're creeping up again. Is there something in the water? Are YouGov and their model right? Will it be close to Survation? Ugh.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Ave_it said:

    I'm more relaxed than I was in 2015!

    But I could be wrong! :lol:

    I'm not. Ed Miliband would have been ok.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The thing about the Tory strategy is that they've gone way, way beyond enemy lines. Is there a chance they find themselves stranded?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,389
    Garza said:

    Is there a bellweather constituency? A constituency which gets it right almost all the time? In the US theres a county in Indiana that has got elections right for decades for example?

    It's hard to find consistent bellwethers in the UK as the boundaries are constantly changing (though not in this election)
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    edited June 2017
    Anna Soubry‏Verified account @Anna_Soubry 3m3 minutes ago

    Labour have some cars with megaphones racing round #Broxtowe The only audible words are "Vote" and "Soubry" which is generous of them.

    lol
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tracey_thorn: @janemerrick23 @youngvulgarian Look, it's not a disco nap unless you're going out to a disco. This is, I dunno, a Nap of Doom, or something. A dread nap, a disaster nap.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Pulpstar said:

    Ave_it said:

    I'm more relaxed than I was in 2015!

    But I could be wrong! :lol:

    I'm not. Ed Miliband would have been ok.
    Agreed.
    alex. said:

    The thing about the Tory strategy is that they've gone way, way beyond enemy lines. Is there a chance they find themselves stranded?

    Personally I think they planned for a very offensive strategy deep in the Tory heartlands, then didn't adjust when things started to converge and risk losing seats as a result - we shall soon see if they were right to hold the course, or if they were deluding themselves.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:
    I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
    That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
    SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
    The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.

    There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
    I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
    The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.

    The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.

    Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
    SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
    Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)

    But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.

    I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I've just sold Labour on the spreads.

    I may lose money on it but, if Corbyn wins, I am buggered anyway so what the hell.

    If Labour wins we are all buggered.


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Good luck to everyone betting tonight.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    jonny83 said:

    Anna Soubry‏Verified account @Anna_Soubry 3m3 minutes ago

    Labour have some cars with megaphones racing round #Broxtowe The only audible words are "Vote" and "Soubry" which is generous of them.

    lol

    Someone's keeping their sense of humour at least, good for her.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AndrewCooper__: About now, in a locked room in a secret London location, John Curtice & the brilliant exit poll team place their final spread bets

    This is agony
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:
    I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
    That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
    SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
    The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.

    There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
    I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
    The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.

    The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.

    Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
    SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
    Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)

    But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.

    I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
    Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Scott_P said:

    @AndrewCooper__: About now, in a locked room in a secret London location, John Curtice & the brilliant exit poll team place their final spread bets

    This is agony

    LOL!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Pulpstar said:

    Ave_it said:

    I'm more relaxed than I was in 2015!

    But I could be wrong! :lol:

    I'm not. Ed Miliband would have been ok.
    Yeah I could have taken some years of a Miliband government, no way I would feel that way under Corbyn.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Drcent turnout in C&W and also Sutton
    The local bin issue weighing on the LD vote..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.

    It was getting a bit too Sheffield Rally.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    alex. said:

    The thing about the Tory strategy is that they've gone way, way beyond enemy lines. Is there a chance they find themselves stranded?

    Yes, a big chance, next question.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:

    @AndrewCooper__: About now, in a locked room in a secret London location, John Curtice & the brilliant exit poll team place their final spread bets

    This is agony

    One thing I think is likely is that the margin of error on the exit poll may be a lot wider than usual.
  • EuripidesEuripides Posts: 3
    Thought a big Tory majority nailed on and looking forward to the fun. Went to the polling station - just me and 4 young women, none more than 21, all certain Corbynites. Nerves slightly frayed. Wine bottle opened.
    Thanks to all who contribute regularly here for the knowledge, insights and entertainment. A long time lurker - it's the only place to be on nights like this.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    timmo said:

    Drcent turnout in C&W and also Sutton
    The local bin issue weighing on the LD vote..

    Tom Brake must be cursing the local council...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.

    As the only calm person, what's your prediction? I have to know!!!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,119
    edited June 2017
    I'm feeling intensely relaxed tonight... Mainly because I'm not that invested either way.

    I'd prefer May overall but if it's Jezza... Well, we'll have an entertaining few years on PB! :D
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Euripides said:

    Thought a big Tory majority nailed on and looking forward to the fun. Went to the polling station - just me and 4 young women, none more than 21, all certain Corbynites. Nerves slightly frayed. Wine bottle opened.
    Thanks to all who contribute regularly here for the knowledge, insights and entertainment. A long time lurker - it's the only place to be on nights like this.

    Hi there. Does "none more than 21, all certain Corbynites" include you?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.

    As the only calm person, what's your prediction? I have to know!!!
    Erm....I'm leaning towards Con majority.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,777
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    @AndrewCooper__: About now, in a locked room in a secret London location, John Curtice & the brilliant exit poll team place their final spread bets

    This is agony

    One thing I think is likely is that the margin of error on the exit poll may be a lot wider than usual.
    Yeah, Can't see there will be a UNS. There'll be massive swings and no swings. And Scotland needs polling separately.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RobD said:

    BTW - I hope everyone has their trusty KLAXONs on standby? This might be the real deal.

    My ear defenders are at the ready
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 451
    Just voted (Lancashire West - 87 on the list of Labour defences). Staff at the polling station say it has been much busier than normal. There seemed to be a steady stream of people arriving to vote which is not something I have ever seen before at my polling station. No sign of an army of young voters (or, indeed, any young voters at all). No real feeling for how it is going except the Conservatives have been far more active than normal. UKIP finished third last time and aren't standing this time so it could be closer than UNS but I would be surprised if the Conservatives win.

    The only straw in the wind is that my wife, a life-long Labour voter on the basis that she considers herself working class and regards them as the party for the working class, definitely hasn't voted Labour this time. She detests Corbyn. I don't know if she has gone for one of the minor parties or has taken the plunge and voted Conservative.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Just got in, 8 cans of dead pony club to celebrate the beginning of the end of the SNP.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:
    I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
    That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
    SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
    The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.

    There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
    I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
    The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.

    The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.

    Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
    SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
    Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)

    But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.

    I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
    Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross?

    Good performance for the Libs in Holyrood, difficult to read the local tea leaves due to large number of independents. Possible, but I suspect it's an SNP hold.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Speaking from a purely betting opportunities viewpoint, Corbyn becoming PM/May losing Dave's majority would be great for PB.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    kle4 said:

    So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.

    As the only calm person, what's your prediction? I have to know!!!
    Erm....I'm leaning towards Con majority.
    Yes, but by how much?!! And Labour need to do badly enough that Corbyn goes!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?

    I think I counted as one in 2010!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    calum said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    calum said:
    I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
    That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
    SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
    The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.

    There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
    I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
    The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.

    The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.

    Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
    SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
    Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)

    But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.

    I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
    Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross?

    Good performance for the Libs in Holyrood, difficult to read the local tea leaves due to large number of independents. Possible, but I suspect it's an SNP hold.
    Yes. I think they will take it by standing still as the Nat vote falls.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    kle4 said:

    jonny83 said:

    Anna Soubry‏Verified account @Anna_Soubry 3m3 minutes ago

    Labour have some cars with megaphones racing round #Broxtowe The only audible words are "Vote" and "Soubry" which is generous of them.

    lol

    Someone's keeping their sense of humour at least, good for her.
    I haven't heard them....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,320

    Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?

    Amazed they can both register and get out of bed before 10pm, apparently.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.

    As the only calm person, what's your prediction? I have to know!!!
    Erm....I'm leaning towards Con majority.
    Yes, but by how much?!! And Labour need to do badly enough that Corbyn goes!
    I have no idea.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,122

    Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?

    Funnily enough I saw a youngster (early 20s) this afternoon at my polling station which was unexpected.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678

    Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?

    There were loads in my polling station this morning. But it's a city centre seat, and as rock-solid Labour as they come, so take from that what you will.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Speaking from a purely betting opportunities viewpoint, Corbyn becoming PM/May losing Dave's majority would be great for PB.

    True, but watching the government blow up the deficit right before Brexit would be rather terrifying.
This discussion has been closed.