As we enjoy the anticipation of the next 30 minutes, spare a thought for candidates and activists still knocking up. They've been slogging themselves for weeks and more than 15 hours today, and in a close race the efforts in the final hour can make all the difference.
All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
Just got back from knocking up in Ilford North, one woman told she said to colleagues today at work that if Corbyn got in 'She would commit suicide' so I hope for her sake most of the polls are right this time!
Just to confirm said lady was NOT my mum!
Thankyou for the confirmation Sunil, I expect your mum is far too stoic for that!
In fact she's pro-Labour this time around, but did NOT vote.
Interesting, that is at least 1 vote lost for Labour in Ilford N, I think it will be tight, Streeting has a personal vote but there is also clear hostility to Corbyn
It's been a while since I don't post here, but I must say that today envy you, having an election while in my country, there's a big possibility we will lose another president in less than a year. Even with this, we won't get a vote!
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
Well said, but very quickly, how many LD seats did you predict again?
All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
So if there is only one then issues will be had.
I cannot see off hand any provision for what to do in a situation where the party is reduced so much - I imagine the Federal Committee would need to decide what to do (join Labour, probably)
All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
I hope I am wrong
It would be THE most damning indictment of Theresa May possible.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
Or just pack it in.
Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.
They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.
Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
I'm wondering where the value will lie after the exit poll, if the tories are marginally short, May Majority will likely be good value, and if the LDs have run, as I suspect they may have, 15 or 20 by-elections across the country, then there may be upside on them.
All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
So if there is only one then issues will be had.
I cannot see off hand any provision for what to do in a situation where the party is reduced so much - I imagine the Federal Committee would need to decide what to do (join Labour, probably)
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
Or just pack it in.
Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.
They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.
Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
If the election leaves them with a Liberal, centrist leader and atlas 3 seats they'll be in a better position exiting the election than going into it in my eyes.
How entertaining would it be if the Tories only got a majority due to gains in Scotland? Imagine St Nicola having to explain to her disciples how her party's under performance had led to a Tory government
I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.
Sitting with the chinchilla's and awaiting the exit poll.....ufff stressful. I think once the votes are counted and done I will be ok, either way. But currently I am nervous, I do not support one party and never have but the idea of a Corbyn PM is worrying for two reasons;
1) It will be a disaster in terms of finances; 2) When he fails he will disenfranchise a huge amount of young voters.
All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
I hope I am wrong
I'm not sure they've been moving towards Labour.
I've heard mildly positive things the other way. Just shows you need to be careful about who you listen to.
I JUST THOUGHT I would post on here today because I voted for the TORIES, the reason being Labour would ban me from appearing in videos due to me being a dwarf!
I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.
All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
I hope I am wrong
Tis how I feel right now, and I predicted a 100 seat majority earlier! Oh May why oh why didn't you run a better campaign......
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
Or just pack it in.
Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.
They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.
Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
It's never easy being a lib dem but you know in you heart there will be others to take your place and keep campaigning for your community. It was never a career move but an expression of belief. Now waits for incoming in the next 20 mins
How entertaining would it be if the Tories only got a majority due to gains in Scotland? Imagine St Nicola having to explain to her disciples how her party's under performance had led to a Tory government
Ruth's standing in the party would be stratospheric.
The FDP in Germany did not disband when they fell below the 5% threshold and lost all their seats in the Bundestag. Why would the LDs disband if they were reduced to just Alistair Carmichael?
I'm wondering where the value will lie after the exit poll, if the tories are marginally short, May Majority will likely be good value, and if the LDs have run, as I suspect they may have, 15 or 20 by-elections across the country, then there may be upside on them.
I usually get on Tories after Lab ahead by 10 seats to 1 (even though they should be) as some seem to panic.
Never failed to make money on GE night.
Even got out of a heavily entrenched EICIPM position in 2015 to make a profit.
I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.
All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
I hope I am wrong
Are you SeanT?
No - saying it as I see it
Forgot to mention - yesterday I did the North Wales Coast Line from Chester to Holyhead, with a brief stopover at Lladudno Junction. Saw a Hawk trainer land at Valley RAF as we were passing through westbound!
The FDP in Germany did not disband when they fell below the 5% threshold and lost all their seats in the Bundestag. Why would the LDs disband if they were reduced to just Alistair Carmichael?
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
Well said, but very quickly, how many LD seats did you predict again?
I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.
I think that's courageous. There are some people (on both sides) who feel the duty to turn out against Despicable Labour or Despicable Tories regardless of the weakness of their "own" candidate but there are perhaps more who go for whoever seems a more decent sort in the week or two before polling day. I'm really not convinced that the electorate on the front line in marginals are any more conscious of this duty than those in safe seats.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
Or just pack it in.
Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.
They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.
Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
If the election leaves them with a Liberal, centrist leader and atlas 3 seats they'll be in a better position exiting the election than going into it in my eyes.
I think that's right. Unseating Farron and ending up with (say) Jo Swinson as LibDem leader would be a rather Pyrrhic victory.
I'm working on the basis that those who aren't enamoured of May in the South, live in safe seats, and don't have to vote Tory, are sometimes not, whereas those who must, in key marginals, are voting Tory out of duty regardless of how they feel.
I think (okay, maybe hope) that's right.
We can hope - we do know Labour are up in the South, where their chances of gains is very low.
This is like the 2005 Ashes test match when Giles and Hoggard were batting England to victory.
Agony, ecstasy, tension, fear, hope, joy, and delirium tremens all rolled into one
A fair few people might think the campaign resembles Headingley '81. I'm sticking to my guns and a big Tory majority. Let's not forget that if Theresa gets a 20+ majority it's the best any Tory leader has done in 30 years.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
Or just pack it in.
Nah. They'll still be around. They'll ebb and flow, but they have a lot of members, and they're still a force in local politics.
They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.
Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
I think what they've lost over the last 10 years is a cohesive philosophy that they can all subscribe to. It's not easy to survive in the wilderness without that.
Before it all goes crazy I'll also just say that after 10 years posting on here and a few more reading it, this is still the 'place' I'd want to be on a major election night. Great credit to OGH and others.
Comments
Tick Tock.
And then the exit poll.
And the agony - is it right?
Anyhow pbers......it's only an election....there will be others to look forward to.....
Agony, ecstasy, tension, fear, hope, joy, and delirium tremens all rolled into one
They'll win a by-election here or there. There'll be a recession, and they'll pick up people who won't vote Labour as the Tory tide recedes somewhat.
Despite all the prognostications, the LDs will hang around. Maybe they'll never get back to 50 seats, or 30 seats, but I'd bet on them reaching 20 at some point in the next 15 years.
Would settle for an exit poll giving Tories LT 50 majority.
Cons by 40 please.
Am trying to be impartial.....
can we please have a nominated exit poll poster so that at 10pm we don't have 20 posts of the result?
1) It will be a disaster in terms of finances;
2) When he fails he will disenfranchise a huge amount of young voters.
I JUST THOUGHT I would post on here today because I voted for the TORIES, the reason being Labour would ban me from appearing in videos due to me being a dwarf!
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x227rl_men-without-hats-safety-dance_music
If he does, I shall be so stunned by a surge not even YouGov's model picked up, I won't be able to react with horror.
@benatipsosmori: Not long to the exit poll at 10. Having worked since 7am our 300 interviewers (and me) are fascinated by the result #GE2107
Is this a hint? NOC?
WillS/
He and a young whppersnapper called Andrew Rawnsley were the pin up boys of my A level Politics class
The FDP in Germany did not disband when they fell below the 5% threshold and lost all their seats in the Bundestag. Why would the LDs disband if they were reduced to just Alistair Carmichael?
Never failed to make money on GE night.
Even got out of a heavily entrenched EICIPM position in 2015 to make a profit.
Have to have balls though.
here
They are always going to sell it as "fascinating"! Hardly going to say "meh....." are they?
So after all this it could just be 5 seats more than in 2015.
My prediction was a majority the same-sized as 2015's....
A lot of us have very expensive spread positions.
Lab sources say things looking very bad for the party in Yorkshire, N East, Midlands. + Some NWest marginals. But some surprises elsewhere
20 minutes