Straw in the wind, been in Wetherspoons in my home town (relatively WWC area of a safe Tory seat) talking to a friend-of-a-friend who says he spoiled his ballot. Didn't vote Tory because she's "weak and wobbly", didn't vote Labour because he's a "terrorist sympathiser" and didn't vote Lib Dem because they're "nowhere to be seen".
Shows some of the attack lines are cutting through.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
AFAICT the court case strengthened Carmichael's position. The people who are outraged by his behaviour vote SNP anyway; the remainder either support him or think the case was politically motivated.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross?
Good performance for the Libs in Holyrood, difficult to read the local tea leaves due to large number of independents. Possible, but I suspect it's an SNP hold.
Yes. I think they will take it by standing still as the Nat vote falls.
That's the LibDem hope in Argyll & Bute and East Dunbartonshire too.
(The LDs also did extremely well in A&B last year, with their vote share rising 15% and them shooting past the Tories into clear second. It's my 6-1 shot :-))
I think you are all wildly overestimating Labour. I hope not, but everything about the Corbyn surge and the polls is very questionable.
I have no data or inside knowledge to back this up but it all seems pretty obvious to me: Labour have been campaigning in the wrong places, picking up votes in safe seats and no hope seats, and focussing efforts and resources in seats they are unlikely to win (80 people out canvassing last night here, a town with a popular tory MP , brexit voting, 5k tory majority). And so on, and so on. The whole campaign has been focussed entirely on increasing their share of the vote, in line with Corbyns own view that Parliamentary democracy is just one part of a broader popular socialist movement.
On the other hand the tories have been ruthlessly playing the FPTP game as they always do. The laws of gravity haven't changed So I think the popular vote will be fairly equal, but the tories will end up with a huge majority.
I am on 100 + seat majority for the Conservatives. The price for 125 - 149 seats - 21 on Betfair - seems like unbelievable value to me.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
AFAICT the court case strengthened Carmichael's position. The people who are outraged by his behaviour vote SNP anyway; the remainder either support him or think the case was politically motivated.
Well it was, although he was still proven to be a liar wasn't he?
Just got back from knocking up in Ilford North, one woman told me she said to colleagues today at work that if Corbyn got in 'She would commit suicide' so I hope for her sake most of the polls are right this time!
Speaking from a purely betting opportunities viewpoint, Corbyn becoming PM/May losing Dave's majority would be great for PB.
True, but watching the government blow up the deficit right before Brexit would be rather terrifying.
Well I see Brexit and Corbynism as two cheeks of the same arse.
Both based on dubious economic cases? Well that's nice in theory, but I'm not a super well paid guy in a super solid industry so anyone that is going to throw things around the room like the Enfield poltergeist is rather terrifying.
Thought a big Tory majority nailed on and looking forward to the fun. Went to the polling station - just me and 4 young women, none more than 21, all certain Corbynites. Nerves slightly frayed. Wine bottle opened. Thanks to all who contribute regularly here for the knowledge, insights and entertainment. A long time lurker - it's the only place to be on nights like this.
Been with us since BC450 and only just got around to posting? Welcome anyway, Euripides. Nice to have someone older than JackW here tonite.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Just got back from knocking up in Ilford North, one woman told she said to colleagues today at work that if Corbyn got in 'She would commit suicide' so I hope for her sake most of the polls are right this time!
Speaking from a purely betting opportunities viewpoint, Corbyn becoming PM/May losing Dave's majority would be great for PB.
True, but watching the government blow up the deficit right before Brexit would be rather terrifying.
Well I see Brexit and Corbynism as two cheeks of the same arse.
I agree, but I also think they are irrelevant now. Brexit is an out of control juggernaut. It's all about how to deal with the fallout. Corbynism won't get a look in. Equally Mrs May doesn't have a single clue about how to tackle Brexit.
Speaking from a purely betting opportunities viewpoint, Corbyn becoming PM/May losing Dave's majority would be great for PB.
True, but watching the government blow up the deficit right before Brexit would be rather terrifying.
Well I see Brexit and Corbynism as two cheeks of the same arse.
Both based on dubious economic cases? Well that's nice in theory, but I'm not a super well paid guy in a super solid industry so anyone that is going to throw things around the room like the Enfield poltergeist is rather terrifying.
More based on a fantasy and blaming someone else for the ills of the country.
Thought a big Tory majority nailed on and looking forward to the fun. Went to the polling station - just me and 4 young women, none more than 21, all certain Corbynites. Nerves slightly frayed. Wine bottle opened. Thanks to all who contribute regularly here for the knowledge, insights and entertainment. A long time lurker - it's the only place to be on nights like this.
Hi there. Does "none more than 21, all certain Corbynites" include you?
I wish. Unfortunately you can double the age. Voting Tory holding my nose this time in terror at the alternative.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
I think you are all wildly overestimating Labour. I hope not, but everything about the Corbyn surge and the polls is very questionable.
I have no data or inside knowledge to back this up but it all seems pretty obvious to me: Labour have been campaigning in the wrong places, picking up votes in safe seats and no hope seats, and focussing efforts and resources in seats they are unlikely to win (80 people out canvassing last night here, a town with a popular tory MP , brexit voting, 5k tory majority). And so on, and so on. The whole campaign has been focussed entirely on increasing their share of the vote, in line with Corbyns own view that Parliamentary democracy is just one part of a broader popular socialist movement.
On the other hand the tories have been ruthlessly playing the FPTP game as they always do. The laws of gravity haven't changed So I think the popular vote will be fairly equal, but the tories will end up with a huge majority.
I am on 100 + seat majority for the Conservatives. The price for 125 - 149 seats - 21 on Betfair - seems like unbelievable value to me.
There was an interesting observation on Newsnight yesterday. Yes, Corbyn had been stage large rallies and spending time in safe seats. But, so the reporter claimed, those rallies of him speaking, surrounded by large crowds of the general public, those were broadcast on regional TV. And regional TV encompassed not just that safe seat, but many surrounding seats, there the CON/LAB fight was much closer. So was that a clever strategy on the part of Labour? Stage will rallies so that they get beamed into many contested seats. Personally, I think labour is being underestimated. There is a clear momentum in his poll movement, lots of support amoung the youth. Its case of, how many will turnout, and how will they be distributed.
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."
They’ve had seven weeks to get their names on the local register. They’ll know for next time.
in america you can turn up on the day with photo id.
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
Seconded. Thanks to one and all who keep the good ship PB afloat.
I just want the exit poll to confirm a comfortable Tory majority, then I can change my avatar back and start slagging the government off for 5 years.
No
Once a PB Tory always a PB Tory!!!
In fact you will be personally responsible for shite public services!!
I could have ducked that and voted LD, this is a safe Tory seat, but thought I had better put my vote where my mouth was on this one. I will indeed be responsible for what will probably be a rough few years.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
I think you are all wildly overestimating Labour. I hope not, but everything about the Corbyn surge and the polls is very questionable.
I have no data or inside knowledge to back this up but it all seems pretty obvious to me: Labour have been campaigning in the wrong places, picking up votes in safe seats and no hope seats, and focussing efforts and resources in seats they are unlikely to win (80 people out canvassing last night here, a town with a popular tory MP , brexit voting, 5k tory majority). And so on, and so on. The whole campaign has been focussed entirely on increasing their share of the vote, in line with Corbyns own view that Parliamentary democracy is just one part of a broader popular socialist movement.
On the other hand the tories have been ruthlessly playing the FPTP game as they always do. The laws of gravity haven't changed So I think the popular vote will be fairly equal, but the tories will end up with a huge majority.
I am on 100 + seat majority for the Conservatives. The price for 125 - 149 seats - 21 on Betfair - seems like unbelievable value to me.
I agree.
It looks to me like we're in for some very odd results - when the story of the labour campaign comes out, I think it's going to be one of MP's left to fend for themselves with a dysfunctional national campaign.
Some will be a lot more successful than others and will hold on/increase their majorities substantially. Others will unexpectedly drown.
I've balanced my book in favour of a 125+ majority.
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
Just got back from knocking up in Ilford North, one woman told she said to colleagues today at work that if Corbyn got in 'She would commit suicide' so I hope for her sake most of the polls are right this time!
Just to confirm said lady was NOT my mum!
Thankyou for the confirmation Sunil, I expect your mum is far too stoic for that!
I'm beginning to suspect the LDs will essentially swap C&W for Twickenham to remain flat in London. (I'm assuming Richmond Park will be won by the Zac the Cock.)
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
AFAICT the court case strengthened Carmichael's position. The people who are outraged by his behaviour vote SNP anyway; the remainder either support him or think the case was politically motivated.
Well it was, although he was still proven to be a liar wasn't he?
I think you are all wildly overestimating Labour. I hope not, but everything about the Corbyn surge and the polls is very questionable.
I have no data or inside knowledge to back this up but it all seems pretty obvious to me: Labour have been campaigning in the wrong places, picking up votes in safe seats and no hope seats, and focussing efforts and resources in seats they are unlikely to win (80 people out canvassing last night here, a town with a popular tory MP , brexit voting, 5k tory majority). And so on, and so on. The whole campaign has been focussed entirely on increasing their share of the vote, in line with Corbyns own view that Parliamentary democracy is just one part of a broader popular socialist movement.
On the other hand the tories have been ruthlessly playing the FPTP game as they always do. The laws of gravity haven't changed So I think the popular vote will be fairly equal, but the tories will end up with a huge majority.
I am on 100 + seat majority for the Conservatives. The price for 125 - 149 seats - 21 on Betfair - seems like unbelievable value to me.
There was an interesting observation on Newsnight yesterday. Yes, Corbyn had been stage large rallies and spending time in safe seats. But, so the reporter claimed, those rallies of him speaking, surrounded by large crowds of the general public, those were broadcast on regional TV. And regional TV encompassed not just that safe seat, but many surrounding seats, there the CON/LAB fight was much closer. So was that a clever strategy on the part of Labour? Stage will rallies so that they get beamed into many contested seats. Personally, I think labour is being underestimated. There is a clear momentum in his poll movement, lots of support amoung the youth. Its case of, how many will turnout, and how will they be distributed.
I think it was a clever strategy - it created a lot of belief, and the images are fantastic, I should think it may have shored up a lot of waverers.
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
LD Federal Constitution, Leadership Election Regulations para 7
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
I do not think there is provision for what would happen if there are no other MPs to nominate him - so I would imagine the Federal Committee would have to weigh in (probably to commit seppuku)
Betting post: Just placed £40 (£30 of it free) on William Hill at 16/1 on the following:
Tory Majority Over 50, Tories Over 5 Seats In Scotland, UKIP Under 5% Of The Vote, Lib Dems Under 8 Seats
Given how correlated those are, that's a fantastic multiple to be given.
It's mental, but I wasn't going to complain. My effective odds are 67/1. If it comes off then that will be a good few festivals paid for. In addition I have £50 at 6/1 on the LDs going sub 10. The yellow team have the potential to really spoil my night.
I just want the exit poll to confirm a comfortable Tory majority, then I can change my avatar back and start slagging the government off for 5 years.
Good news everyone - you may be tainted for life, but when you go blue, you can go back.
Voted tactically Con in a UKIP target seat to keep them out last time round, despite my being an ardent Brexiteer...
This time, with the UKIP vote receding, I plumped for Labour - at least partly as an Article 50 punishment vote against the Lib Dems, who I don't want to see sneaking second place and becoming genuine contenders a few years down the line.
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
Well said Jack, as always.
Well said indeed, I rarely post, but enjoy lurking, many thanks to all the posters, and of course OGH, just enjoying a Bevvy or two.
I'm beginning to suspect the LDs will essentially swap C&W for Twickenham to remain flat in London. (I'm assuming Richmond Park will be won by the Zac the Cock.)
There will be lots of wealthy pro-Remain voters who work/commute to the City who will vote very late in those seats. It might overwhelm the oldies from earlier in the day.
Speaking from a purely betting opportunities viewpoint, Corbyn becoming PM/May losing Dave's majority would be great for PB.
True, but watching the government blow up the deficit right before Brexit would be rather terrifying.
Well I see Brexit and Corbynism as two cheeks of the same arse.
Both based on dubious economic cases? Well that's nice in theory, but I'm not a super well paid guy in a super solid industry so anyone that is going to throw things around the room like the Enfield poltergeist is rather terrifying.
More based on a fantasy and blaming someone else for the ills of the country.
"Othering" I believe it is called, that may make people feel better (hence Trump) but it doesn't solve anything in the short term. Or any term. And mocking it makes people feel better...but again solves nothing.
I think you are all wildly overestimating Labour. I hope not, but everything about the Corbyn surge and the polls is very questionable.
I have no data or inside knowledge to back this up but it all seems pretty obvious to me: Labour have been campaigning in the wrong places, picking up votes in safe seats and no hope seats, and focussing efforts and resources in seats they are unlikely to win (80 people out canvassing last night here, a town with a popular tory MP , brexit voting, 5k tory majority). And so on, and so on. The whole campaign has been focussed entirely on increasing their share of the vote, in line with Corbyns own view that Parliamentary democracy is just one part of a broader popular socialist movement.
On the other hand the tories have been ruthlessly playing the FPTP game as they always do. The laws of gravity haven't changed So I think the popular vote will be fairly equal, but the tories will end up with a huge majority.
I am on 100 + seat majority for the Conservatives. The price for 125 - 149 seats - 21 on Betfair - seems like unbelievable value to me.
I agree.
It looks to me like we're in for some very odd results - when the story of the labour campaign comes out, I think it's going to be one of MP's left to fend for themselves with a dysfunctional national campaign.
Some will be a lot more successful than others and will hold on/increase their majorities substantially. Others will unexpectedly drown.
I've balanced my book in favour of a 125+ majority.
Sorry to be Donny Downer, but for the Tories to be into the sort of turf that gets north of a 125 majority, you have to be taking seats that are congenitally anti-Tory. And for that to happen, Corbyn had to have a mare and May had to have a blinder.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?
Rarely, actually. Maybe I've been infected by the PB Tory conviction that young people are feckless, lazy, and even if they are politically engaged they'll forget to register, but I don't think I've often seen anyone under 30 at a polling station.
Clearly some of them vote (as I did) but, I guess, at different times of day to me.
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
It's been a while since I don't post here, but I must say that today envy you, having an election while in my country, there's a big possibility we will lose another president in less than a year. Even with this, we won't get a vote!
I'm beginning to suspect the LDs will essentially swap C&W for Twickenham to remain flat in London. (I'm assuming Richmond Park will be won by the Zac the Cock.)
There will be lots of wealthy pro-Remain voters who work/commute to the City who will vote very late in those seats. It might overwhelm the oldies from earlier in the day.
Why do I dislike Zac so?
I don't know what it is, but I really, really, really don't like him.
It's been a while since I don't post here, but I must say that today envy you, having an election while in my country, there's a big possibility we will lose another president in less than a year. Even with this, we won't get a vote!
Just got back from knocking up in Ilford North, one woman told she said to colleagues today at work that if Corbyn got in 'She would commit suicide' so I hope for her sake most of the polls are right this time!
Just to confirm said lady was NOT my mum!
Thankyou for the confirmation Sunil, I expect your mum is far too stoic for that!
In fact she's pro-Labour this time around, but did NOT vote.
I think you are all wildly overestimating Labour. I hope not, but everything about the Corbyn surge and the polls is very questionable.
I have no data or inside knowledge to back this up but it all seems pretty obvious to me: Labour have been campaigning in the wrong places, picking up votes in safe seats and no hope seats, and focussing efforts and resources in seats they are unlikely to win (80 people out canvassing last night here, a town with a popular tory MP , brexit voting, 5k tory majority). And so on, and so on. The whole campaign has been focussed entirely on increasing their share of the vote, in line with Corbyns own view that Parliamentary democracy is just one part of a broader popular socialist movement.
On the other hand the tories have been ruthlessly playing the FPTP game as they always do. The laws of gravity haven't changed So I think the popular vote will be fairly equal, but the tories will end up with a huge majority.
I am on 100 + seat majority for the Conservatives. The price for 125 - 149 seats - 21 on Betfair - seems like unbelievable value to me.
I agree.
It looks to me like we're in for some very odd results - when the story of the labour campaign comes out, I think it's going to be one of MP's left to fend for themselves with a dysfunctional national campaign.
Some will be a lot more successful than others and will hold on/increase their majorities substantially. Others will unexpectedly drown.
I've balanced my book in favour of a 125+ majority.
Sorry to be Donny Downer, but for the Tories to be into the sort of turf the gets north of a 125 majority, you have to be taking seats that are congenitally anti-Tory. And for that to happen, Corbyn had to have a mare and May had to have a blinder.
Would love it; can't see it.
I've been slowly building up my position over the past 48 hrs, backing 125+ at effective odds of 16/1.
I think the odds are a fair bit less than that. Anyway, shortly we'll see.
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
Hear Hear. And a promise that I shall certainly pay my tithe of appreciation should my winnings come in.
As we enjoy the anticipation of the next 30 minutes, spare a thought for candidates and activists still knocking up. They've been slogging themselves for weeks and more than 15 hours today, and in a close race the efforts in the final hour can make all the difference.
All today the anecdotes have been moving towards labour and for weeks now I have been very concerned at the way the conservative campaign has just been hopeless.
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
As a Lib Dem member I should really know this but what are the rules for party leader? Do you need to be an MP?
If I recall correctly yes, and they need 10% of the parliamentary party to nominate,a s famously last time each one on their own could meet that criteria. But they cannot nominate themselves.
Would Alistair Carmichael be able to nominate himself?
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
If there's only one MP (Carmichael), the LDs would need to have an emergency rule change.
I think you are all wildly overestimating Labour. I hope not, but everything about the Corbyn surge and the polls is very questionable.
I have no data or inside knowledge to back this up but it all seems pretty obvious to me: Labour have been campaigning in the wrong places, picking up votes in safe seats and no hope seats, and focussing efforts and resources in seats they are unlikely to win (80 people out canvassing last night here, a town with a popular tory MP , brexit voting, 5k tory majority). And so on, and so on. The whole campaign has been focussed entirely on increasing their share of the vote, in line with Corbyns own view that Parliamentary democracy is just one part of a broader popular socialist movement.
On the other hand the tories have been ruthlessly playing the FPTP game as they always do. The laws of gravity haven't changed So I think the popular vote will be fairly equal, but the tories will end up with a huge majority.
I am on 100 + seat majority for the Conservatives. The price for 125 - 149 seats - 21 on Betfair - seems like unbelievable value to me.
I'm inclined to agree but my prediction record is woeful! I still think Labour's polling could be akin to a very frothy pint of beer. A lot less to it once things settle down.
Comments
Shows some of the attack lines are cutting through.
(The LDs also did extremely well in A&B last year, with their vote share rising 15% and them shooting past the Tories into clear second. It's my 6-1 shot :-))
through till dawn...
I have no data or inside knowledge to back this up but it all seems pretty obvious to me: Labour have been campaigning in the wrong places, picking up votes in safe seats and no hope seats, and focussing efforts and resources in seats they are unlikely to win (80 people out canvassing last night here, a town with a popular tory MP , brexit voting, 5k tory majority). And so on, and so on. The whole campaign has been focussed entirely on increasing their share of the vote, in line with Corbyns own view that Parliamentary democracy is just one part of a broader popular socialist movement.
On the other hand the tories have been ruthlessly playing the FPTP game as they always do. The laws of gravity haven't changed So I think the popular vote will be fairly equal, but the tories will end up with a huge majority.
I am on 100 + seat majority for the Conservatives. The price for 125 - 149 seats - 21 on Betfair - seems like unbelievable value to me.
Oh and the Lib Dems under 7 seats too...
80% TURNOUT IN lOWGATES GIVES A GLIMMER IN ne dERBYS BUT STILL EXPECT TO LOSE THERE
General consensus in the office in London today was, who the **** do we vote for, the choice on offer is dire on all sides.
No doubt anecdotal straws in the wind.
Which is why I'm on Carmichael as next LibDem leader at 60-1. It was a wonderful shadow bet on the LDs getting only 1 seat.
(And you might also win if the LDs end up with only O&S, Edinburgh West and Ceridgion. Any other seats than that, you're screwed.)
Once a PB Tory always a PB Tory!!!
In fact you will be personally responsible for shite public services!!
I say that as the Head of the Provisional Wing of the Continuity Cameroon Army,
Tory Majority Over 50, Tories Over 5 Seats In Scotland, UKIP Under 5% Of The Vote, Lib Dems Under 8 Seats
On this special day I like to put on record a formal vote of thanks to Mike and Robert Smithson for all their hard work in keeping the good ship HMS PB the pride of political websites in the UK .... despite old barnacles like myself interfering with the sleek lines of her keel.
Grateful appreciation also to the many thread contributors, especially - TSE, The Meekster and Herders. and the moderators who manfully repel boarders.
And to you my fellow posters raise a glass of something to yourself. You most certainly deserve it.
a disgrace the attempts to suppress voting.
It looks to me like we're in for some very odd results - when the story of the labour campaign comes out, I think it's going to be one of MP's left to fend for themselves with a dysfunctional national campaign.
Some will be a lot more successful than others and will hold on/increase their majorities substantially. Others will unexpectedly drown.
I've balanced my book in favour of a 125+ majority.
united household!
Nominations from the Parliamentary Party shall not include the candidate themselves and no member of the Parliamentary Party may sign more than one nomination paper. A nomination will be rejected if it depends upon the signature of an MP who has signed a previously submitted nomination form for another candidate standing in the election.
I do not think there is provision for what would happen if there are no other MPs to nominate him - so I would imagine the Federal Committee would have to weigh in (probably to commit seppuku)
Voted tactically Con in a UKIP target seat to keep them out last time round, despite my being an ardent Brexiteer...
This time, with the UKIP vote receding, I plumped for Labour - at least partly as an Article 50 punishment vote against the Lib Dems, who I don't want to see sneaking second place and becoming genuine contenders a few years down the line.
Back from a holiday for GE night.
Good luck to all PB punters.
Would love it; can't see it.
Clearly some of them vote (as I did) but, I guess, at different times of day to me.
A psephologist, a psephologist
John Curtice is a psephologist
And so is Michael Thrash.
I don't know what it is, but I really, really, really don't like him.
I think the odds are a fair bit less than that. Anyway, shortly we'll see.
Respect to all of them, whatever their colours.
http://www.uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/kantar-public-meta-analysis-of-polls/
I have seen so many today with optimistic seat numbers for the conservatives but I think we are heading into hung parliament territory. It would be the irony of all ironies if Ruth conquered Scotland and Theresa lost seats in England
I hope I am wrong