Mrs C, Yorkshire is a flourishing and bountiful land, nourished by the timely rain. Not a parched realm of nightmares, like Mordor.
Leave Derbyshire out of this.....
Derbyshire has been left out of everything since the dawn of civilisation.....
It is slowly creeping up on Sheffield though. It seems to get closer every time I go over Snake Pass.
It's a sneaky county, Derbyshire. You've got to watch it like a hawk....
It is so bleak up in the hills. If you car has a problem up there then you might as well be on the back of the moon as far as mobile phones are concerned.
My first car was an ex-National Rivers Authority Land Rover 110. It nearly killed me three times, including once when I was travelling over the tops between Chesterfield and Matlock on a foggy night and lost all electrics, including lights.
My brother had much more fun with his Land Rover, including the time he was on its roof and it rolled onto him. That's an impressive feat!
I regularly drive past the Land Rover factory in Liverpool. There are plenty more of them to go around so tell your brother not to worry too much
I don't think they make the classic Land Rover any more? It's all Freeloaders and Piscoverys now, isn't it.
I saw a figure somewhere for the percentage of Land Rovers made that are still in existence: it was remarkably high. You just can't kill them.
I took my 110 to the Royal Cornwall Show today. Car parks are a mud bath, and as a result it's now mud spattered from sill to roof. I may have taken a few "alternative" routes. Can't stop smiling.
(And saw the new Disco there. Don't know what they're doing - possibly the ugliest vehicle I've ever seen)
Anecdote - I was called up by someone at a Conservative phonebank today asking if I had voted in Edinburgh North and Leith - which is my constituency. I had and asked him how it was going. He said the Tories were getting their vote out but that it would be close. Of course he would say that anyway, but interesting that the Tories are throwing resources at EN&L at this stage.
Er, close between Lab and the SNP, surely??
Look at the switching matrix of Lab to Con, factor in almost total Con retention and SNP vote fall and you get Con anywhere from 2000 votes behind to 2000 votes ahead. The Constituency takes in most of the city centre (elected Ruth Davidson) and some of the most affluent and we'll healed parts of Edinburgh. Don't be fooled by Leith in the consituency name. It takes in Fettes, Trinity and Inverleith where if a house is worthless than half a million it is a hovel.
Four anecdotes from telling in Norwich South [New Costessey Ward - LV1] for 10 hours today...
1 The polling station Inspector tells me that the queues at the University of East Anglia polling station were transitory and caused by a whole load of students leaving a big exam at the same time and all going off to the polling station before retiring to the pub. Treat twitter pix with caution.
2 I met a charming lady with two poll cards asking me what to do with the other - her husband died on Tuesday. I just hugged her tightly and then the presiding officer helped her in her grief and looked after the card for her. Lump in the throat time.
3 Turnout v high at about 75pc - that is about 1100 in the polling station and an additional 500+ postals.
4 Labour phoned someone who lived 3 doors from the polling station asking him whether he wanted a taxi. He was a committed Tory voter so was perplexed by the offer.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Is the high turnout only in your ward which is one of the more Conservative parts of the constituency ?
And is the university area having much lower turnout ?
Surely there's no chance that Labour might not win Norwich South.
Only if Costessey turns out en masse and the students and city vote don't. He's safe.
Four anecdotes from telling in Norwich South [New Costessey Ward - LV1] for 10 hours today...
1 The polling station Inspector tells me that the queues at the University of East Anglia polling station were transitory and caused by a whole load of students leaving a big exam at the same time and all going off to the polling station before retiring to the pub. Treat twitter pix with caution.
2 I met a charming lady with two poll cards asking me what to do with the other - her husband died on Tuesday. I just hugged her tightly and then the presiding officer helped her in her grief and looked after the card for her. Lump in the throat time.
3 Turnout v high at about 75pc - that is about 1100 in the polling station and an additional 500+ postals.
4 Labour phoned someone who lived 3 doors from the polling station asking him whether he wanted a taxi. He was a committed Tory voter so was perplexed by the offer.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Is the high turnout only in your ward which is one of the more Conservative parts of the constituency ?
And is the university area having much lower turnout ?
Surely there's no chance that Labour might not win Norwich South.
I bloody well hope they do. Surely the Tories can't take Norwich south !
Anecdote - I was called up by someone at a Conservative phonebank today asking if I had voted in Edinburgh North and Leith - which is my constituency. I had and asked him how it was going. He said the Tories were getting their vote out but that it would be close. Of course he would say that anyway, but interesting that the Tories are throwing resources at EN&L at this stage.
Er, close between Lab and the SNP, surely??
You'd have thought. But with the Tories increasing their vote by 11 - 15% Scotland wide, and the SNP apparently declining by 7 - 10%, there are going to be some enormous and unexpected swings in some parts of Scotland.
For the record my bet is that those swings will be in the north east rather than Edinburgh. Although the Tories will get a good vote in the New Town/Inverleith part of Edinburgh North and Leith, I have a hard time seeing them breaking through into the more populous Leith part of the seat.
Four anecdotes from telling in Norwich South [New Costessey Ward - LV1] for 10 hours today...
1 The polling station Inspector tells me that the queues at the University of East Anglia polling station were transitory and caused by a whole load of students leaving a big exam at the same time and all going off to the polling station before retiring to the pub. Treat twitter pix with caution.
2 I met a charming lady with two poll cards asking me what to do with the other - her husband died on Tuesday. I just hugged her tightly and then the presiding officer helped her in her grief and looked after the card for her. Lump in the throat time.
3 Turnout v high at about 75pc - that is about 1100 in the polling station and an additional 500+ postals.
4 Labour phoned someone who lived 3 doors from the polling station asking him whether he wanted a taxi. He was a committed Tory voter so was perplexed by the offer.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Is the high turnout only in your ward which is one of the more Conservative parts of the constituency ?
And is the university area having much lower turnout ?
Surely there's no chance that Labour might not win Norwich South.
Only if Costessey turns out en masse and the students and city vote don't. He's safe.
Thanks.
Norwich South Lab has some of my bank account temporarily residing in it.
Four anecdotes from telling in Norwich South [New Costessey Ward - LV1] for 10 hours today...
1 The polling station Inspector tells me that the queues at the University of East Anglia polling station were transitory and caused by a whole load of students leaving a big exam at the same time and all going off to the polling station before retiring to the pub. Treat twitter pix with caution.
2 I met a charming lady with two poll cards asking me what to do with the other - her husband died on Tuesday. I just hugged her tightly and then the presiding officer helped her in her grief and looked after the card for her. Lump in the throat time.
3 Turnout v high at about 75pc - that is about 1100 in the polling station and an additional 500+ postals.
4 Labour phoned someone who lived 3 doors from the polling station asking him whether he wanted a taxi. He was a committed Tory voter so was perplexed by the offer.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Is the high turnout only in your ward which is one of the more Conservative parts of the constituency ?
And is the university area having much lower turnout ?
Surely there's no chance that Labour might not win Norwich South.
Only if Costessey turns out en masse and the students and city vote don't. He's safe.
Thanks.
Norwich South Lab has some of my bank account temporarily residing in it.
If it falls then a 200 majority is on. It won't. The city is true red.
Think there will be a lot of torn Labour voters out there tonight? Some feeling that Corbyn has to go but know it might take a big Conservative result to force that change? Some perhaps hoping it is a 100 or more Tory majority so to get rid of Corbyn?
There is a real danger tonight he could do well enough to stay on especially in terms of percentage of the vote. I guess there is the argument if he increases say the vote share that Miliband got that his politics is a viable brand and the country might be open to a hard left government. But if Corbyn is still a major turn off they might never go all the way in letting Labour back in.
If I was a Labour voter I might want a pasting tonight, get rid of Corbyn and go back to the center left hoping that Brexit damages the Conservatives badly and ready to take over at the next election.
Anecdote - I was called up by someone at a Conservative phonebank today asking if I had voted in Edinburgh North and Leith - which is my constituency. I had and asked him how it was going. He said the Tories were getting their vote out but that it would be close. Of course he would say that anyway, but interesting that the Tories are throwing resources at EN&L at this stage.
Four anecdotes from telling in Norwich South [New Costessey Ward - LV1] for 10 hours today...
1 The polling station Inspector tells me that the queues at the University of East Anglia polling station were transitory and caused by a whole load of students leaving a big exam at the same time and all going off to the polling station before retiring to the pub. Treat twitter pix with caution.
2 I met a charming lady with two poll cards asking me what to do with the other - her husband died on Tuesday. I just hugged her tightly and then the presiding officer helped her in her grief and looked after the card for her. Lump in the throat time.
3 Turnout v high at about 75pc - that is about 1100 in the polling station and an additional 500+ postals.
4 Labour phoned someone who lived 3 doors from the polling station asking him whether he wanted a taxi. He was a committed Tory voter so was perplexed by the offer.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Is the high turnout only in your ward which is one of the more Conservative parts of the constituency ?
And is the university area having much lower turnout ?
Surely there's no chance that Labour might not win Norwich South.
Only if Costessey turns out en masse and the students and city vote don't. He's safe.
Big turnout here in the Golden Triangle. Clive will increase his majority.
Can't really say about turnout in the rest of the constituency in Norwich South- NewCostessey is held exclusively by LibDem candidates at the district & county councils so it isn't traditionally Tory. That said, it looked quite Blue today.
re the University ward turnout - You need to remember that voter registration in University ward is only 64% of the Norwich South ward average but theory should suggest that the number of voters in each ward should be equal. So the the students just aren't registered to vote.
Couple that with the fact that term finished on 19th May with only those with exams staying on.
So I suspect a double whammy repeated all over Low student voter registration Low turnout because either they've gone home. Or just can't be arsed.
And if they're registered to vote at home instead by mummy and daddy, there's a good chance their Corbynistic tendancies will be diluted.
My favourite Wigan joke which bears re-telling while we're waiting for the exit poll. Not suitable for snowflakes.
A St Helens man goes to Wigan and sees a little girl crying her eyes out at the side of the road. "What's wrong, little girl?" he asks. "It's my mummy," she says. "I've lost her and can't find her anywhere." "Don't worry," he says. "We'll soon find her. What's she like?" "Bingo and cock," comes the answer.
It's a scouse joke, so they switch towns if they're in Wigan.
This is my favourite Wigan joke (you need to imagine the accent):
Man goes into a jewellers: "Can you make me a statue of my dog, in gold" "Eighteen carat?" "Er... no thanks. Chewing a bone".
Anecdote - I was called up by someone at a Conservative phonebank today asking if I had voted in Edinburgh North and Leith - which is my constituency. I had and asked him how it was going. He said the Tories were getting their vote out but that it would be close. Of course he would say that anyway, but interesting that the Tories are throwing resources at EN&L at this stage.
I have always loathed Angel Lansbury in her TV detective sort of role that's been on tele forever. Now I know she is a socialist too, It just confirms my opinion
Why would anybody choose the BBC over Sky. Why curtice was still saying too close to call in the EU referendum and 2015 GE, Thrasher had already calculated the results and gone home.
For me it depends on the graphics, best graphics get on the TV, second best on the laptop, ITV off.
I love watching BBC just to see the disappointment on their faces. Andrew Marr was practically in tears after the exit poll 2015.
You do know he is a Tory?
What? A real Tory or an everyone-to-the-right-of-John-McDonnell-is-a-Tory Tory?
Mrs C, Yorkshire is a flourishing and bountiful land, nourished by the timely rain. Not a parched realm of nightmares, like Mordor.
Leave Derbyshire out of this.....
Derbyshire has been left out of everything since the dawn of civilisation.....
It is slowly creeping up on Sheffield though. It seems to get closer every time I go over Snake Pass.
It's a sneaky county, Derbyshire. You've got to watch it like a hawk....
It is so bleak up in the hills. If you car has a problem up there then you might as well be on the back of the moon as far as mobile phones are concerned.
My first car was an ex-National Rivers Authority Land Rover 110. It nearly killed me three times, including once when I was travelling over the tops between Chesterfield and Matlock on a foggy night and lost all electrics, including lights.
My brother had much more fun with his Land Rover, including the time he was on its roof and it rolled onto him. That's an impressive feat!
I regularly drive past the Land Rover factory in Liverpool. There are plenty more of them to go around so tell your brother not to worry too much
I don't think they make the classic Land Rover any more? It's all Freeloaders and Piscoverys now, isn't it.
I saw a figure somewhere for the percentage of Land Rovers made that are still in existence: it was remarkably high. You just can't kill them.
I took my 110 to the Royal Cornwall Show today. Car parks are a mud bath, and as a result it's now mud spattered from sill to roof. I may have taken a few "alternative" routes. Can't stop smiling.
(And saw the new Disco there. Don't know what they're doing - possibly the ugliest vehicle I've ever seen)
The Discovery's key target market is SW London. Just as the Evoque's is new money Cheshire.
Overheard from polling officer / desk sitter (can't think of the proper names for them):
I was voter #450 of the day (3rd sheet finished). There are about 1950 voters registered at my polling location. 24.1% of these have postal votes.
I live in what was a LD/CON SW marginal, which turned blue in 2015. The polling station area and ward is best described as a better off, older (and few students) suburban area, part of the main town in the constituency. Turnout for the county council election was 43% (which covers a wider area). I am under the impression that turnout is normally higher here than the average for the constituency.
Making the assumption that 80% of postal voters voted. (376). And add in the 450 = 826/1950 voters by 5:37pm for a turnout of 42.3%. I think this may be indicating a lower turnout in the old LD/CON marginals (which no longer are marginal!). Even another 450 voters in the last 4 hours and 23 minutes would only mean a turnout of 65.4% (I would expect last time for it to be nearing 80% in my area, for a turnout of 70% overall).
In addition to this, throughout the campaign the LDs have not been as 'tenacious' as they once were. No contact from them, when only 7 years ago, they were bordering on fanatical, even in 2015 they were far more active. Perhaps this has translated into a low turnout in these sorts of seats...
Mother ducker. Betfair Sports book limiting me to £3.55 on Constituency bets.
Betfair is doing that to me. Is it a generic thing or it because of bahaviour on an account? I.e. Hypothetically could one beat it via several accounts.
Mother ducker. Betfair Sports book limiting me to £3.55 on Constituency bets.
Betfair is doing that to me. Is it a generic thing or it because of bahaviour on an account? I.e. Hypothetically could one beat it via several accounts.
Ah, happier if it is a universal thing. I have a number of Constituency bets considerably larger than £3.55 though which will be hard to lay off.
Why would anybody choose the BBC over Sky. Why curtice was still saying too close to call in the EU referendum and 2015 GE, Thrasher had already calculated the results and gone home.
For me it depends on the graphics, best graphics get on the TV, second best on the laptop, ITV off.
I love watching BBC just to see the disappointment on their faces. Andrew Marr was practically in tears after the exit poll 2015.
Now trying to decide whether to go back in, and onto what.
I did the same about a week ago, but just sold half my stake. Glad I did because I would otherwise have been a nervous wreck by now.
You still have half open then?
Yes, but if I were starting with a blank sheet now I'd be a seller at 207, for small stakes.
I don't have the nerves for spreads so took the easy way out and went to to SkyBet to put £50 at evens on Labour to get less than 208 seats. A silly little bet, but free money IMO.
Anecdote - I was called up by someone at a Conservative phonebank today asking if I had voted in Edinburgh North and Leith - which is my constituency. I had and asked him how it was going. He said the Tories were getting their vote out but that it would be close. Of course he would say that anyway, but interesting that the Tories are throwing resources at EN&L at this stage.
May's late Edinburgh visit was to North and Leith.
I didn't even think they were targetting that. Does that mean they think they have Edin South West for sure? and the north east (region) must be looking very good foor them, no?
From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."
Mother ducker. Betfair Sports book limiting me to £3.55 on Constituency bets.
Betfair is doing that to me. Is it a generic thing or it because of bahaviour on an account? I.e. Hypothetically could one beat it via several accounts.
Mother ducker. Betfair Sports book limiting me to £3.55 on Constituency bets.
Betfair is doing that to me. Is it a generic thing or it because of bahaviour on an account? I.e. Hypothetically could one beat it via several accounts.
I got similar on PP, but still could make bigger stakes on BF SB. It must be behaviour related.
Mother ducker. Betfair Sports book limiting me to £3.55 on Constituency bets.
Betfair is doing that to me. Is it a generic thing or it because of bahaviour on an account? I.e. Hypothetically could one beat it via several accounts.
If you want to violate the T&Cs
Got you. Fair enough for them to want to manage their position and most stuff can be done with othe firms.
Now trying to decide whether to go back in, and onto what.
I did the same about a week ago, but just sold half my stake. Glad I did because I would otherwise have been a nervous wreck by now.
You still have half open then?
Yes, but if I were starting with a blank sheet now I'd be a seller at 207, for small stakes.
I've sold at £10.
Already sort of regretting, but that's because I'm a big jessie.
Same stake as me, but due to earlier trading I'm on at 180. I'm expecting a result very close to 200 but can cope with anything but a complete meltdown - under 150 would be ugly, but I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen.
Anecdote - I was called up by someone at a Conservative phonebank today asking if I had voted in Edinburgh North and Leith - which is my constituency. I had and asked him how it was going. He said the Tories were getting their vote out but that it would be close. Of course he would say that anyway, but interesting that the Tories are throwing resources at EN&L at this stage.
May's late Edinburgh visit was to North and Leith.
I didn't even think they were targetting that. Does that mean they think they have Edin South West for sure? and the north east (region) must be looking very good foor them, no?
I was surprised too. The Tories were a distant third in both the 2015 GE and the equivalent 2016 seat for Holyrood. However, just looked at the council results from a couple of weeks back and the Conservatives did really well in the wards that make up the Edinburgh North & Leith constituency.
80 minutes to go. The BBC coverage may be frustrating, but no-one anywhere does drama like the first minute after the polls close on the BBC. Switching over to ITV after that mind. Or going to bed in despair, one or the other.
This is probably one of the most important UK General Elections for a number of years. If May wins you get BREXIT and a finacial crisis. If Corbyn wins ....... you will also get a financial crisis! I am sat in front of the telly, laptop on the table and waiting patiently for the results to start flowing. It will be a fascinating day and hopefully you guys will be causing the earthquakes rather than NZ! Enjoy everyone!
From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."
They’ve had seven weeks to get their names on the local register. They’ll know for next time.
Mrs C, Yorkshire is a flourishing and bountiful land, nourished by the timely rain. Not a parched realm of nightmares, like Mordor.
Leave Derbyshire out of this.....
Derbyshire has been left out of everything since the dawn of civilisation.....
It is slowly creeping up on Sheffield though. It seems to get closer every time I go over Snake Pass.
It's a sneaky county, Derbyshire. You've got to watch it like a hawk....
It is so bleak up in the hills. If you car has a problem up there then you might as well be on the back of the moon as far as mobile phones are concerned.
My first car was an ex-National Rivers Authority Land Rover 110. It nearly killed me three times, including once when I was travelling over the tops between Chesterfield and Matlock on a foggy night and lost all electrics, including lights.
My brother had much more fun with his Land Rover, including the time he was on its roof and it rolled onto him. That's an impressive feat!
I regularly drive past the Land Rover factory in Liverpool. There are plenty more of them to go around so tell your brother not to worry too much
I don't think they make the classic Land Rover any more? It's all Freeloaders and Piscoverys now, isn't it.
I saw a figure somewhere for the percentage of Land Rovers made that are still in existence: it was remarkably high. You just can't kill them.
I took my 110 to the Royal Cornwall Show today. Car parks are a mud bath, and as a result it's now mud spattered from sill to roof. I may have taken a few "alternative" routes. Can't stop smiling.
(And saw the new Disco there. Don't know what they're doing - possibly the ugliest vehicle I've ever seen)
The Discovery's key target market is SW London. Just as the Evoque's is new money Cheshire.
Sure, so people in SW London don't have off-road needs, but they do have eyes. This satisfies the former and offends the latter.
From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."
They’ve had seven weeks to get their names on the local register. They’ll know for next time.
If they registered before the deadline then they have every right to be on the register. Shocking failure by the council.
From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."
They’ve had seven weeks to get their names on the local register. They’ll know for next time.
If they registered before the deadline then they have every right to be on the register. Shocking failure by the council.
You'd have thought the lack of polling card would have rang alarm bells.
From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."
They’ve had seven weeks to get their names on the local register. They’ll know for next time.
If they registered before the deadline then they have every right to be on the register. Shocking failure by the council.
Could be a by-election if the majority is less than the number of people allegedly not registered.
From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."
They’ve had seven weeks to get their names on the local register. They’ll know for next time.
If they registered before the deadline then they have every right to be on the register. Shocking failure by the council.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
Not one report from a committee room so to a degree all anecdotal, if the queue now are longer than ever before then that will be a pointer. At this stage you normally can't catch everybody going in or out to get their number and it doesn't actually matter because you work off the 20:00 data.are the queues building up more than is usual?
Comments
(And saw the new Disco there. Don't know what they're doing - possibly the ugliest vehicle I've ever seen)
His quietness tempts me with a few quid on the Ruth Davidson party there.
Bdtfair seems to be heading the way of a 50-100 majority.
My pred is unchanged:
Con 362
Lab 215
SNP 40
LD 11
PC 3
Gn 1
NI 18
76 majority
I have just backed some of the run off though as this is a particularly difficult one to predict.
#Maomentum
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
For the record my bet is that those swings will be in the north east rather than Edinburgh. Although the Tories will get a good vote in the New Town/Inverleith part of Edinburgh North and Leith, I have a hard time seeing them breaking through into the more populous Leith part of the seat.
Norwich South Lab has some of my bank account temporarily residing in it.
hes voting theresa
There is a real danger tonight he could do well enough to stay on especially in terms of percentage of the vote. I guess there is the argument if he increases say the vote share that Miliband got that his politics is a viable brand and the country might be open to a hard left government. But if Corbyn is still a major turn off they might never go all the way in letting Labour back in.
If I was a Labour voter I might want a pasting tonight, get rid of Corbyn and go back to the center left hoping that Brexit damages the Conservatives badly and ready to take over at the next election.
https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/872875506349355008
re the University ward turnout - You need to remember that voter registration in University ward is only 64% of the Norwich South ward average but theory should suggest that the number of voters in each ward should be equal. So the the students just aren't registered to vote.
Couple that with the fact that term finished on 19th May with only those with exams staying on.
So I suspect a double whammy repeated all over
Low student voter registration
Low turnout because either they've gone home. Or just can't be arsed.
And if they're registered to vote at home instead by mummy and daddy, there's a good chance their Corbynistic tendancies will be diluted.
Man goes into a jewellers: "Can you make me a statue of my dog, in gold"
"Eighteen carat?"
"Er... no thanks. Chewing a bone".
May's late Edinburgh visit was to North and Leith.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/872897349080797184
Now I know she is a socialist too, It just confirms my opinion
benfleet - castle point.
Voted today at 5:37pm.
Overheard from polling officer / desk sitter (can't think of the proper names for them):
I was voter #450 of the day (3rd sheet finished). There are about 1950 voters registered at my polling location. 24.1% of these have postal votes.
I live in what was a LD/CON SW marginal, which turned blue in 2015. The polling station area and ward is best described as a better off, older (and few students) suburban area, part of the main town in the constituency. Turnout for the county council election was 43% (which covers a wider area). I am under the impression that turnout is normally higher here than the average for the constituency.
Making the assumption that 80% of postal voters voted. (376). And add in the 450 = 826/1950 voters by 5:37pm for a turnout of 42.3%. I think this may be indicating a lower turnout in the old LD/CON marginals (which no longer are marginal!). Even another 450 voters in the last 4 hours and 23 minutes would only mean a turnout of 65.4% (I would expect last time for it to be nearing 80% in my area, for a turnout of 70% overall).
In addition to this, throughout the campaign the LDs have not been as 'tenacious' as they once were. No contact from them, when only 7 years ago, they were bordering on fanatical, even in 2015 they were far more active. Perhaps this has translated into a low turnout in these sorts of seats...
Already sort of regretting, but that's because I'm a big jessie.
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYDxxHrlmUg
The BBC coverage may be frustrating, but no-one anywhere does drama like the first minute after the polls close on the BBC.
Switching over to ITV after that mind. Or going to bed in despair, one or the other.
That's cheered me up.
Hanretty: Con 366, Lab 207, SNP 46. LD 7, Greens 1, UKIP 1 (which seat?!)
Baxter: Con 358, Lab 218, SNP 49, LD 3, PC 3, Greens 1
YouGov: Con 302, Lab 269, SNP 44, LD 12, PC 2, Greens 1
I have updated it so that 2017 figures can be entered to calculate running totals. I will be editing it for a while but not all night.
If anyone wants to get edit access to my copy (as opposed to downloading it and playing with it) email me at benedictmpwhite at gmail dhat com.
Many thanks to Andy JS for all his hard work.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)