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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember how at EURef Newcastle and Sunderland gave us the first pointers as to what was to come

The 2015 result in Newcastle East now being tipped to be the first seat to declare. Should be easy LAB hold but how will CON do? pic.twitter.com/Fs6bnx27EM

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RobD

First

Freggles

Second like.... you know the drill

kle4

The Labour lost deposits in 2015

kle4 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TravelJunkie said:

Pub Quiz Time.

Lost Deposits in the 2015 General Election

Conservative lost deposits 2015: 18/647 (£9,000)
Labour lost deposits 2015: 3/631 (£1,500)
UKIP lost deposits 2015: 80/624 (£40,000)
Liberal Democrat lost deposits 2015: 340/631 (£170,000)
Green Party lost deposits 2015: 442/573 (£221,000)
SNP lost deposits 2015: 0/59 (£0)
Plaid Cymru lost deposits 2015: 8/40 (£4,000).

Question - Name the 3 labour constituencies and 18 tory seats

Labour's have got to be in some rural Con/Lib marginals, probably in the South West.

Looks like it was Ross, Skye and Lochaber, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk.

Scotland, should have guessed.

Andrew

Fifth like the LDs.

brokenwheel

Andrew said:

Fifth like the LDs.

9th like Diane.

kle4

In 2015 the Tories got more votes in North Down in NI than the Western Isles. Due to the small population of the latter, to be sure, but they actually got 4.4% in North Down, which is tantalizingly close to retaining their deposit.

jonny83

I guess it all comes down to that UKIP vote in those two seats and where it goes. If it mostly moves to the Conservatives they could be in for a good night.

dixiedean

jonny83 said:

I guess it all comes down to that UKIP vote in those two seats and where it goes. If it mostly moves to the Conservatives they could be in for a good night.

A significant difference between the Newcastle and Sunderland UKIP LD and Green scores. Doesn't surprise me at all.

Blue_rog

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

alex.

RE: the time of declaration bet mentioned in the earlier thread. It was suggested/revealed on here recently that part of the trick to some of the early declarations is to only count the non-Labour votes, and treat the Labour vote as the balancing figure. If some of these constituencies become closer as a result of Labour voters switching then there will be more votes to count, and therefore longer to declare a result.

BigRich

brokenwheel said:

Andrew said:

Fifth like the LDs.

9th like Diane.

LOL

That's not going to get old for a long time!!

rottenborough

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I agree, very odd. Why the hell go into politics if you hate public speaking and interviews?

SouthamObserver

My gut is telling me Labour closer to 160 than 180.

But I'll stick to 180 give or take. Definitely not 200.

RobD

alex. said:

RE: the time of declaration bet mentioned in the earlier thread. It was suggested/revealed on here recently that part of the trick to some of the early declarations is to only count the non-Labour votes, and treat the Labour vote as the balancing figure. If some of these constituencies become closer as a result of Labour voters switching then there will be more votes to count, and therefore longer to declare a result.

I hope they count the votes properly before certifying them?

Sunil_Prasannan

Just voted in Ilford North!

Turnout seems OK, not earth-shattering. Only one teller, a Tory.

Sunil means "blue"...

DavidL

Both in the north east too. Is that not the area of the country with the biggest swing according to Com Res?

Is there just a chance that the markets might overreact to what looks like a "huge" swing? Might just be a buying opportunity there. OTOH I do expect the exit poll to slightly understate the Tory score due to a change in the postals with the position improving slightly as the night goes on.

SouthamObserver

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

If it were only public speaking it would not be a problem.

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Just voted in Ilford North!

Turnout seems OK, not earth-shattering. Only one teller, a Tory.

Sunil means "blue"...

Did you vote or ?

kle4

Hadn't realised the LDs were so close to retaining Eastbourne last time - seen it mentioned a few times, but not many thinking it will go LD?

Floater

Can i just say that the teachers in London who got the primary school kids to do these posters should be sacked

https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/hammer-and-sickle-posters-in-primary-school-polling-station-window/

Morris_Dancer

FPT: Mr. Dan, welcome to pb.com.

On-topic: it's a damned shame we count votes so much more slowly than other countries.

Sunil_Prasannan

For those wot missed it:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640

rottenborough

SouthamObserver said:

My gut is telling me Labour closer to 160 than 180.

But I'll stick to 180 give or take. Definitely not 200.

Me too (the 160 I mean)

This is going to be a catastrophic night for Labour.

williamglenn

Macron looks on course for a stunning result.

spudgfsh

alex. said:

RE: the time of declaration bet mentioned in the earlier thread. It was suggested/revealed on here recently that part of the trick to some of the early declarations is to only count the non-Labour votes, and treat the Labour vote as the balancing figure. If some of these constituencies become closer as a result of Labour voters switching then there will be more votes to count, and therefore longer to declare a result.

There won't be the sorting of different ballot papers this time (ie no locals to worry about) which will speed up all of the declarations

RobD

williamglenn said:

Macron looks on course for a stunning result.

Bye bye the left.

Beverley_C

1st - using Abbott's Linear Approximation

Based on the last few elections, I will believe whatever the exit poll says.

SouthamObserver

I have a feeling London and Wales may not be as good for Labour as the polls done for both have implied.

spudgfsh

I'd like to see the reaction of sunderland if they lose their 'fastest declaration' to Newcastle...

Ave_it

RobD

Beverley_C said:

1st - using Abbott's Linear Approximation

Based on the last few elections, I will believe whatever the exit poll says.

Exit poll will tell us the difference between a ICM universe and a Survation universe. Not sure it can help much in between.

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

My gut is telling me Labour closer to 160 than 180.

But I'll stick to 180 give or take. Definitely not 200.

We debate whether or not the actual level of the polls are correct, but the change surely is? I can't imagine Labour doing as poorly to only get 160 seats!

MarqueeMark

Recount in Sunderland would be a hell of a way to kick off the night!

The_Taxman

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I am no fan of TM but at least she is offering a serious platform. Her style is a bit wooden but I think people would rather have someone tell you the truth rather than the Blair and to a lesser extent Cameron who were all polish and media focused. If you look back at dynamic PMs they are usually followed by technocratic types. Think: Macmillan followed by Home or Wilson followed by Callaghan or Thatcher followed by Major or Blair followed by Brown and now Cameron followed by May. Politics is a cycle, if Labour can get rid of Corbyn they should be in for a period of rejuvenation as the pendulum swings against the Tories.

David_Evershed

rottenborough said:

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I agree, very odd. Why the hell go into politics if you hate public speaking and interviews?

To get things done.

Rhetoric butters no parsnips - John Major

The_Apocalypse

williamglenn said:

Macron looks on course for a stunning result.

Macron is an absolute boss.

Morris_Dancer

Huzzah! Ave It is here!

What's your forecast, Ave It?

Mr. Glenn, that would be astonishing.

Is it down to Macron's excellence, the established parties' weakness, or both?

RobD

MarqueeMark said:

Recount in Sunderland would be a hell of a way to kick off the night!

What do you think would happen on PB if it was Con GAIN Houghton & Sunderland S?

(I know it isn't going to happen... but it is fun to dream)

brokenwheel

SouthamObserver said:

I have a feeling London and Wales may not be as good for Labour as the polls done for both have implied.

As I was saying, most of the regional polls have been from the companies giving generous Labour scores.

rottenborough

Right, I'm off to the pub for a couple of nerve-calmers.

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

williamglenn said:

Macron looks on course for a stunning result.

Macron is an absolute boss.

It's impressive. Now to see if he can live up to it.

Rhubarb

Ha! Oddly enough I suggested the thread header a couple of nights ago.

Alanbrooke

Ave_it said:

come on Ave It give us a

tim = muppet

our 2010 election treat

Verulamius

An interesting perspective on constituency names

http://www.citymetric.com/horizons/here-are-uk-s-most-infuriating-constituency-names-3099

Which one do you think is the worst?

dixiedean

DavidL said:

Both in the north east too. Is that not the area of the country with the biggest swing according to Com Res?

Is there just a chance that the markets might overreact to what looks like a "huge" swing? Might just be a buying opportunity there. OTOH I do expect the exit poll to slightly understate the Tory score due to a change in the postals with the position improving slightly as the night goes on.

Indeed. However watch out for the differences between Sun and Ncl. Looking at the 2015 figures, there is a big UKIP to squeeze in Sunderland. May get a mahoosive swing to Con. In Newcastle, it is LD and Green votes much>UKIP to squeeze. May be a smaller swing.
They are very different cities in "feel".

Morris_Dancer

Absolutely pissing it down. Rain at 45 degrees.

MarqueeMark

spudgfsh said:

I'd like to see the reaction of sunderland if they lose their 'fastest declaration' to Newcastle...

It would be the end of them doing it. I was told it costs near £250,000 to do it. Once every five years is one thing - justifying it again after just two took some arm-twisting. It's a lot of money for a relatively poor area. They really must think it gives some serious kudos.

MikeL

Sunil_Prasannan said:

For those wot missed it:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872797587413360640

Sunil - I think you included the Qriously final poll.

But did you go back and revise the previous week for the Qriously poll which ended on 29 May (now listed on Wiki - 36/32/5/4)?

Sorry to be a pedant but worth doing - if you do I think you'll then find that the Con lead may have actually risen in the final ELBOW.

Sunil_Prasannan

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Just voted in Ilford North!

Turnout seems OK, not earth-shattering. Only one teller, a Tory.

Sunil means "blue"...

Did you vote or ?

I'm tittering and chortling right now

But my little brother voted Labour

Chameleon

MarqueeMark said:

spudgfsh said:

I'd like to see the reaction of sunderland if they lose their 'fastest declaration' to Newcastle...

It would be the end of them doing it. I was told it costs near £250,000 to do it. Once every five years is one thing - justifying it again after just two took some arm-twisting. It's a lot of money for a relatively poor area. They really must think it gives some serious kudos.

What are the additional costs? Getting more tellers and transportation?

The_Apocalypse

It's not raining in Watford.

Popside

FPT @hunchman

Both Tory and Labour candidates are both pretty yuk IMO.

FPT @david_herdson

Yeah I'm pretty centre ground in my politics. Recognise that business will be business etc. I'd argue re state intervention that the railways could be run a lot better than the current nationalised Network Rail, 10 year, inty-bity only enough time to repaint the trains, franchises leased off some company anyway setup we have now.

steve_garner

Hi Morris Dancer. I saw Neil Dawson this morning in the Tesco Express car park on Churwell Hill. Neither he nor his companion looked very happy.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, Machiavelli wrote that those who rise effortlessly often tumble quickly (could say that of Macron... or May). On the other hand, Julian the Apostate was plucked from obscurity and proved immensely capable.

The_Taxman

SouthamObserver said:

I have a feeling London and Wales may not be as good for Labour as the polls done for both have implied.

I have driven around a safe Labour seat and three margins (In normal times), I don't know whether it is my imagination but their is very little campaigning going on in any of them. Much fewer signs up even on lampposts even in Tory held marginals. I think Labour are going to get trounced in terms of seats. I could well see them on 160 or less. I might be wrong but I suspect the Tories are going to take previously safe Labour seats on 10, 12 14 K votes. We shall see.

I hope Labour can get rid of Corbyn - Politics need a sensible alternative not a list of on the surface attractive proposals that in reality is completely unaffordable. I voted Tory today because I fear for the UK under Corbyn.

Ave_it

Alanbrooke said:

Ave_it said:

come on Ave It give us a

tim = muppet

our 2010 election treat

Hopefully there will be some treats later!

Alanbrooke

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Just voted in Ilford North!

Turnout seems OK, not earth-shattering. Only one teller, a Tory.

Sunil means "blue"...

Did you vote or ?

I'm tittering and chortling right now

But my little brother voted Labour

tax his pocket money

Chameleon

Verulamius said:

An interesting perspective on constituency names

http://www.citymetric.com/horizons/here-are-uk-s-most-infuriating-constituency-names-3099

Which one do you think is the worst?

They have an issue with almost every single constituency name, which is quite impressive in itself.

Paristonda

The_Apocalypse said:

williamglenn said:

Macron looks on course for a stunning result.

Macron is an absolute boss.

The first thing to note is the utter destruction of the Socialist party, it is completely dead if those results bear out.

But the second thing to note is that Macron is going to wipe the floor with Les Republicains by as big a margin as early campaign polls predicted May would with Corbyn. A crushing defeat for Les Republicains, spared only by the even more crushing defeat for the Socialists.

He's certainly off to a good start in any case.

Fleet_of_Worlds

Alanbrooke said:

Ave_it said:

come on Ave It give us a

tim = muppet

our 2010 election treat

What happened to Tim in the end? He was.... a character.

RobD

Verulamius said:

An interesting perspective on constituency names

http://www.citymetric.com/horizons/here-are-uk-s-most-infuriating-constituency-names-3099

Which one do you think is the worst?

I'm such a nerd - I just read all of that.

Agree that the Scottish seats tend to be a bit too long.

chrisb

FPT:

Chameleon said:

David_Evershed said:

Popside said:

A few notes from Derby North. People at work seem a lot more engaged compared to GE2015 with the trend towards Labour but bare in mind some people will live in the county seats surrounding Derby.

There is one younger bloke (24) who is voting Tory and thinks Corbyn is an idiot. Make of that what you will.

Received plenty of leaflets through the post as you'd expecting in a marginal thinner than a rizla paper.

I expect Amanda Solloway to increase her majority to about 2k. The Labour candidate is a full a Corbyn fanboy and ex leader of the pretty unpopular City Council.

Myself, well I stuck with the Lib Dems dispite the fact that Tim is crap and I've no interest in a 2nd referendum.

There is a case for voting Lib Dem in order to keep flying a flag for economic liberalism now May has turned to state intervention.

chrisb said:

Oman_Dan said:

Evening all! Another lurker here.. stepping out of the shadows! Been following this page for about two years now. Must also give praise, as many other lurkers have before me, to Mike, TSE, et al for all of their riproaring tips and dialogue!

I've been studying Bill Hills 'Your Odds', and I've found a couple of (What I think to be) potential gems:


Conservatives to win over 340 seats, Labour Over 175 Seats, Greens Exactly 1 Seat, and UKIP No Seats - 6/5

First constituency to be counted before 22.45.00 - 5/2.



Would be interested to hear your thoughts, both for and against.

I've just been trawling through those markets. The one I had a small nibble on was LDs < 7 seats at 12/1. Probably won't come off but I don't think it's 12/1 unlikely.

When was that, that'd be exceptional value if it was available now.

Yes it's still available at the same odds. See here:

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9702801/#YourOdds+-+6+1+to+14+1.html

MaxPB

Just about to head back to London. What's the word from the ground game? Has IoS made an appearance?

Charles

Verulamius said:

An interesting perspective on constituency names

http://www.citymetric.com/horizons/here-are-uk-s-most-infuriating-constituency-names-3099

Which one do you think is the worst?

Definitely "East, North and South Antrim". It should be "Antrim Out West"

RobD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Just voted in Ilford North!

Turnout seems OK, not earth-shattering. Only one teller, a Tory.

Sunil means "blue"...

Did you vote or ?

I'm tittering and chortling right now

But my little brother voted Labour

Your have fallen significantly on the Order of Lenin shortlist.

Andrew

The_Taxman said:

Much fewer signs up even on lampposts even in Tory held marginals. I think Labour are going to get trounced in terms of seats.

I wonder what happens if Labour's internal pollster BMG turns out to be inaccurate on the pessimistic side (they were Con+13 yesterday), leading them to allocate resources to seats they were never going to lose, and little to the actual marginals.

philiph

Having moved from north Herts to a Bedfordshire constituency, I was presented with a ballot paper with the name Nadine on it. What is a man to do?

Monster raving loonies were also on the ballot.

I drove up to Chatsworth this morning. More posters up there than I have seen in my neck of the woods for years. Both labour and cons well represented in Chesterfield and other towns I went through.

Home for midday to vote and find a Nadine conundrum.

Pulpstar

Just watching the 2001 replay - apparently the Labour campaign went badly !

SouthamObserver

My other hot prediction is that Labour will end up with fewer seats than the Exit Poll initially predicts.

Sunil_Prasannan

Paristonda said:

The_Apocalypse said:

williamglenn said:

Macron looks on course for a stunning result.

Macron is an absolute boss.

The first thing to note is the utter destruction of the Socialist party, it is completely dead if those results bear out.

But the second thing to note is that Macron is going to wipe the floor with Les Republicains by as big a margin as early campaign polls predicted May would with Corbyn. A crushing defeat for Les Republicains, spared only by the even more crushing defeat for the Socialists.

He's certainly off to a good start in any case.

His English is parfait

"Let's make our planet great again!"

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Absolutely pissing it down. Rain at 45 degrees.

Windy, or the unique gravity of Yorkshire ?

Chameleon

W/R the constituency names article:

'Barnsley Central

Barnsley East

I know what you’re thinking. How do you split a town in two and end up with a “Central” and an “East”? A West and an East, sure. A Central and an Outer, fine. But what exactly are they sniffing over at the Boundary Commission?'

Is very funny.

David_Evershed

The_Apocalypse said:

It's not raining in Watford.

Mind the gap.

DanSmith

SouthamObserver said:

My other hot prediction is that Labour will end up with fewer seats than the Exit Poll initially predicts.

That seems highly likely to me.

nunu

philiph said:

Having moved from north Herts to a Bedfordshire constituency, I was presented with a ballot paper with the name Nadine on it. What is a man to do?

Monster raving loonies were also on the ballot.

I drove up to Chatsworth this morning. More posters up there than I have seen in my neck of the woods for years. Both labour and cons well represented in Chesterfield and other towns I went through.

Home for midday to vote and find a Nadine conundrum.

Vote for the sensible option. i.e. looney instead of mad nad.

kle4

Verulamius said:

An interesting perspective on constituency names

http://www.citymetric.com/horizons/here-are-uk-s-most-infuriating-constituency-names-3099

Which one do you think is the worst?

Certainly not Aberavon - lots of places with the name not most significant settlement (or used to be many like that).

I have to admit I have noticed the excessive 'and' usage in Scotland - they stick to a theme. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey is just too long though.

I like the ones where you lack a compass point - very common in local elections too - Royal Wootton Bassett has a north, south and east, but no west division.

South Holland and the Deepings is a great name.

SouthamObserver

The_Taxman said:

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I am no fan of TM but at least she is offering a serious platform. Her style is a bit wooden but I think people would rather have someone tell you the truth rather than the Blair and to a lesser extent Cameron who were all polish and media focused. If you look back at dynamic PMs they are usually followed by technocratic types. Think: Macmillan followed by Home or Wilson followed by Callaghan or Thatcher followed by Major or Blair followed by Brown and now Cameron followed by May. Politics is a cycle, if Labour can get rid of Corbyn they should be in for a period of rejuvenation as the pendulum swings against the Tories.

May is not telling the truth on Brexit.

Alanbrooke

SouthamObserver said:

The_Taxman said:

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I am no fan of TM but at least she is offering a serious platform. Her style is a bit wooden but I think people would rather have someone tell you the truth rather than the Blair and to a lesser extent Cameron who were all polish and media focused. If you look back at dynamic PMs they are usually followed by technocratic types. Think: Macmillan followed by Home or Wilson followed by Callaghan or Thatcher followed by Major or Blair followed by Brown and now Cameron followed by May. Politics is a cycle, if Labour can get rid of Corbyn they should be in for a period of rejuvenation as the pendulum swings against the Tories.

May is not telling the truth on Brexit.

well she was a remainer

Beverley_C

SouthamObserver said:

The_Taxman said:

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I am no fan of TM but at least she is offering a serious platform. Her style is a bit wooden but I think people would rather have someone tell you the truth rather than the Blair and to a lesser extent Cameron who were all polish and media focused. If you look back at dynamic PMs they are usually followed by technocratic types. Think: Macmillan followed by Home or Wilson followed by Callaghan or Thatcher followed by Major or Blair followed by Brown and now Cameron followed by May. Politics is a cycle, if Labour can get rid of Corbyn they should be in for a period of rejuvenation as the pendulum swings against the Tories.

May is not telling the truth on Brexit.

Is anyone?

Pulpstar

408 Labour MPs on the exit poll. Bloody hell how times change.

camel

Chameleon said:

W/R the constituency names article:

'Barnsley Central

Barnsley East

I know what you’re thinking. How do you split a town in two and end up with a “Central” and an “East”? A West and an East, sure. A Central and an Outer, fine. But what exactly are they sniffing over at the Boundary Commission?'

Is very funny.

Paisley and Renfrewshire North, Paisley and Renfrewshire South. It infuriates me that Paisley voters count double.

SouthamObserver

williamglenn said:

Macron looks on course for a stunning result.

That will sooooo piss off the Brexit right in the UK. The Spectator will have a meltdown. Lucky France.

hunchman

Interesting article that references Atul Hatwal's article on Labour Uncut:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/06/labour-reckoning

The_Taxman

Andrew said:

The_Taxman said:

Much fewer signs up even on lampposts even in Tory held marginals. I think Labour are going to get trounced in terms of seats.

I wonder what happens if Labour's internal pollster BMG turns out to be inaccurate on the pessimistic side (they were Con+13 yesterday), leading them to allocate resources to seats they were never going to lose, and little to the actual marginals.

Labour have been trying to save safe seats and have left many marginal seats with token campaigns. Labour don't want to win this election so paradoxically it does not really matter. The Corbyn project is not about winning power now but creating a radical party of the left that might go on to change society beyond recognition.

The Tories did the reverse in 1997, they seemed to defend the marginal seats and got totally wiped out even in formally safe seats by a two pronged attack by Lab and LD.

SimonStClare

All set for a long night with plenty of popcorn to hand and a bottle of Blue Nun in the fridge.

‘Bring it on’ as Uncle Vince would say.

HaroldO

SouthamObserver said:

The_Taxman said:

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I am no fan of TM but at least she is offering a serious platform. Her style is a bit wooden but I think people would rather have someone tell you the truth rather than the Blair and to a lesser extent Cameron who were all polish and media focused. If you look back at dynamic PMs they are usually followed by technocratic types. Think: Macmillan followed by Home or Wilson followed by Callaghan or Thatcher followed by Major or Blair followed by Brown and now Cameron followed by May. Politics is a cycle, if Labour can get rid of Corbyn they should be in for a period of rejuvenation as the pendulum swings against the Tories.

May is not telling the truth on Brexit.

She tells the truth and we have capital flight and a recession.

chrisb

MarqueeMark said:

spudgfsh said:

I'd like to see the reaction of sunderland if they lose their 'fastest declaration' to Newcastle...

It would be the end of them doing it. I was told it costs near £250,000 to do it. Once every five years is one thing - justifying it again after just two took some arm-twisting. It's a lot of money for a relatively poor area. They really must think it gives some serious kudos.

250 grand?! why the hell do they bother? I'd be seriously pissed off if that was my tax money. It's a bit sad really.

MarqueeMark

SouthamObserver said:

My other hot prediction is that Labour will end up with fewer seats than the Exit Poll initially predicts.

Many of the projections for seat gains/holds have been by tiny margins. Even a 1% difference each way and large numbers are falling differently.

williamglenn

HaroldO said:

SouthamObserver said:

The_Taxman said:

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I am no fan of TM but at least she is offering a serious platform. Her style is a bit wooden but I think people would rather have someone tell you the truth rather than the Blair and to a lesser extent Cameron who were all polish and media focused. If you look back at dynamic PMs they are usually followed by technocratic types. Think: Macmillan followed by Home or Wilson followed by Callaghan or Thatcher followed by Major or Blair followed by Brown and now Cameron followed by May. Politics is a cycle, if Labour can get rid of Corbyn they should be in for a period of rejuvenation as the pendulum swings against the Tories.

May is not telling the truth on Brexit.

She tells the truth and we have capital flight and a recession.

Not necessarily. What if the truth is that she will posture and stall for as long as it takes for public opinion to turn around?

DavidL

SouthamObserver said:

My other hot prediction is that Labour will end up with fewer seats than the Exit Poll initially predicts.

That I agree with for the reasons I have said but I think 180 is excessively pessimistic, let alone 160. I expect Labour to be around 200. Above or below will be quite important psychologically.

The_Apocalypse

Beverley_C said:

SouthamObserver said:

The_Taxman said:

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I am no fan of TM but at least she is offering a serious platform. Her style is a bit wooden but I think people would rather have someone tell you the truth rather than the Blair and to a lesser extent Cameron who were all polish and media focused. If you look back at dynamic PMs they are usually followed by technocratic types. Think: Macmillan followed by Home or Wilson followed by Callaghan or Thatcher followed by Major or Blair followed by Brown and now Cameron followed by May. Politics is a cycle, if Labour can get rid of Corbyn they should be in for a period of rejuvenation as the pendulum swings against the Tories.

May is not telling the truth on Brexit.

Is anyone?

That song 'liar liar' can be applied to both May and Corbyn.

rpjs

RobD said:

alex. said:

RE: the time of declaration bet mentioned in the earlier thread. It was suggested/revealed on here recently that part of the trick to some of the early declarations is to only count the non-Labour votes, and treat the Labour vote as the balancing figure. If some of these constituencies become closer as a result of Labour voters switching then there will be more votes to count, and therefore longer to declare a result.

I hope they count the votes properly before certifying them?

I believe the RO's declaration is the certification.

businesspiggy

I was the first voter at my Newcastle East polling station, about ten young people behind me in the queue at 7am, and a steady stream throughout the day. Would expect Nick Brown's majority to increase, this is a very young constituency (average age 34), but for a few seconds this morning there was a Tory lead

hunchman

SouthamObserver said:

The_Taxman said:

Blue_rog said:

When the Tory manifesto came out I said that it was time to get some unpalatable stuff on the table and a hit in the polls wouldn't hurt too much. . I'm sure the same calculation was done by the Tories. The joker was May's poor campaigning performance. I don't think it's so bad as to prevent an increased majority but it could have been better and it has also revealed May's Achilles heel, public speaking - strange in a politician

I am no fan of TM but at least she is offering a serious platform. Her style is a bit wooden but I think people would rather have someone tell you the truth rather than the Blair and to a lesser extent Cameron who were all polish and media focused. If you look back at dynamic PMs they are usually followed by technocratic types. Think: Macmillan followed by Home or Wilson followed by Callaghan or Thatcher followed by Major or Blair followed by Brown and now Cameron followed by May. Politics is a cycle, if Labour can get rid of Corbyn they should be in for a period of rejuvenation as the pendulum swings against the Tories.

May is not telling the truth on Brexit.

Correct, EU Military Union and the UK involvement in it despite Brexit being one of the things at the heart of it.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Garner, cheers for that snippet. I do think Jenkyns might hold on, but it should be close.

Mr. B, it was windy. Been showering heavily a lot, then sunny spells, then persistent drizzle, all day.

Mr. kle4, the Deepings sounds like somewhere in Middle-Earth.

Peter_the_Punter

SouthamObserver said:

My gut is telling me Labour closer to 160 than 180.

But I'll stick to 180 give or take. Definitely not 200.

You a seller of Labour Seats then Southam? Sporting's spread has crept up during the day and is now 207/212. Even I think that's a bit high and I started buying when they were 160.

Big profits available to you if you are right and have the cojones. I'm not sure. Staying out of it.

Beverley_C

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Absolutely pissing it down. Rain at 45 degrees.

Windy, or the unique gravity of Yorkshire ?

The rain is trying to avoid Lancashire and Manchester and so rains at an angle over the Pennines. No one minds what happens to Yorkshire (it is all a bit strange over on that side of the hills)

MarqueeMark

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Just voted in Ilford North!

Turnout seems OK, not earth-shattering. Only one teller, a Tory.

Sunil means "blue"...

Did you vote or ?

I'm tittering and chortling right now

But my little brother voted Labour

Your have fallen significantly on the Order of Lenin shortlist.

Sunil's little "brother" needs to be sent for re-education to the gulags of Tunbridge Wells....

Beverley_C

Andrew said:

The_Taxman said:

Much fewer signs up even on lampposts even in Tory held marginals. I think Labour are going to get trounced in terms of seats.

I wonder what happens if Labour's internal pollster BMG turns out to be inaccurate on the pessimistic side (they were Con+13 yesterday), leading them to allocate resources to seats they were never going to lose, and little to the actual marginals.

They will be the first against the wall when The Revolution comes

Freggles

The rain is chucking it down in Stockton.