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I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.rcs1000 said:
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.calum said:
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)0 -
Further Norwich South Anecdotes:
Mischievous leaflet put out by Labour types last night claiming that Green candidate was recommending voting for Clive Lewis: "I Love Green but I'm Voting for Clive". Green candidate denies any pact and urges people to vote for him. Those crazy Momentum guys!
This might explain high turnout in 'Golden Triangle' wards. If as a result, Greens and Labour start to cancel each other out in the terraced streets, the Tory might, just might come up the middle from voters in leafier Eaton, New Costessey, Bowthorpe and the nicer parts of Lakenham & Town Close.
Meanwhile LibDem candidate tweets they've abandoned the campaigning in the seat [which they won in 2010] to shore-up Norman Lamb in NorthNorfolk. Squeaky bum time for Norman and leaving Eaton ward undefended.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.
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No link?BenedictWhite said:I've put an edited copy of AndyJS's spreadsheet here:
I have updated it so that 2017 figures can be entered to calculate running totals. I will be editing it for a while but not all night.
If anyone wants to get edit access to my copy (as opposed to downloading it and playing with it) email me at benedictmpwhite at gmail dhat com.
Many thanks to Andy JS for all his hard work.0 -
The SNP should lose 8 to the Tories, 2 to the LDs and 1 to Labour. That takes them down to 45 seats.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I'd like to be able to bet with, rather than against, my preferred outcome - but alas I don't think it will come to pass.
Positions: BUY Tory seats for £5 at 362-364 seats on Spreadex
BACK Tory majority at 1.24 on Betfair, for £200 profit in the (expected) event
Various small constituency and miscellaneous bets on Betfair
I'm expecting a Tory majority of around 700 -
I'm guessing that even if Corbyn increases the Labour share by just 0.5% he'll use it as a reason to stay on, no matter how badly he does in terms of seats.jonny83 said:Think there will be a lot of torn Labour voters out there tonight? Some feeling that Corbyn has to go but know it might take a big Conservative result to force that change? Some perhaps hoping it is a 100 or more Tory majority so to get rid of Corbyn?
There is a real danger tonight he could do well enough to stay on especially in terms of percentage of the vote. I guess there is the argument if he increases say the vote share that Miliband got that his politics is a viable brand and the country might be open to a hard left government. But if Corbyn is still a major turn off they might never go all the way in letting Labour back in.
If I was a Labour voter I might want a pasting tonight, get rid of Corbyn and go back to the center left hoping that Brexit damages the Conservatives badly and ready to take over at the next election.0 -
My daughter has had a gazillion adverts from the SNP (2 just now). She is 16 and we live in Surrey.0
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I think your rellie is safe. I'd be surprised if SLab get more than 3 unless there really is something tectonic going on under the surface. Reasonable chance of SLab getting a higher vote share than SCons which would put Ruth 'smasher of tomorrows, sneaky recorder of telephone convos, deleter of tweets' Davidson's gas at a peep.Roger said:
That's elegant. Any advance on two seats for Labour in Scotland tonight?Theuniondivvie said:Oldies for Jez.
https://twitter.com/_AngelaLansbury/status/872559410379444224
I actually think this is quite a cool celeb endorsement. Obviously runs in the family.
I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.0 -
Apologies if this has been asked repeatedly but is there a link to the spreadsheet @AndyJS that is going to be updated dynamically through the night?0
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I have a stop-loss at £250, I think.Peter_the_Punter said:
Same stake as me, but due to earlier trading I'm on at 180. I'm expecting a result very close to 200 but can cope with anything but a complete meltdown - under 150 would be ugly, but I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen.Casino_Royale said:
I've sold at £10.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, but if I were starting with a blank sheet now I'd be a seller at 207, for small stakes.Casino_Royale said:
You still have half open then?Peter_the_Punter said:
I did the same about a week ago, but just sold half my stake. Glad I did because I would otherwise have been a nervous wreck by now.Casino_Royale said:I bedwetted out of the spreads last night.
Now trying to decide whether to go back in, and onto what.
Already sort of regretting, but that's because I'm a big jessie.
I presume that also equates to a "stop-gain" as well though.0 -
For some reason /i was grinning from ear to ear as I read thathunchman said:Interesting article that references Atul Hatwal's article on Labour Uncut:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/06/labour-reckoning
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Sounds interesting, but I can't see anything after the colon.BenedictWhite said:I've put an edited copy of AndyJS's spreadsheet here:
I have updated it so that 2017 figures can be entered to calculate running totals. I will be editing it for a while but not all night.
If anyone wants to get edit access to my copy (as opposed to downloading it and playing with it) email me at benedictmpwhite at gmail dhat com.
Many thanks to Andy JS for all his hard work.0 -
Who voted in the most unusual polling station.
Saw a train carriage used Yorkshire.
Mine, a boring old church hall.0 -
Struggling to find much value on the markets. Only bet so far is Con in Thornbury at 3/10
Like most people thinking 80-100 Con maj due to many young people not being registered and due to Lab's vote being less efficiently distributed.0 -
In the unlikely event he does go down we can mark it down as a self-decapitation !Pulpstar said:
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.rcs1000 said:
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.calum said:
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)0 -
Benedict might be doing one.Philip_Thompson said:Apologies if this has been asked repeatedly but is there a link to the spreadsheet @AndyJS that is going to be updated dynamically through the night?
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Honestly the Greens will all vote Labour. They won't risk a Tory (I think)bunnco said:Further Norwich South Anecdotes:
Mischievous leaflet put out by Labour types last night claiming that Green candidate was recommending voting for Clive Lewis: "I Love Green but I'm Voting for Clive". Green candidate denies any pact and urges people to vote for him. Those crazy Momentum guys!
This might explain high turnout in 'Golden Triangle' wards. If as a result, Greens and Labour start to cancel each other out in the terraced streets, the Tory might, just might come up the middle from voters in leafier Eaton, New Costessey, Bowthorpe and the nicer parts of Lakenham & Town Close.
Meanwhile LibDem candidate tweets they've abandoned the campaigning in the seat [which they won in 2010] to shore-up Norman Lamb in NorthNorfolk. Squeaky bum time for Norman and leaving Eaton ward undefended.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.0 -
If the polling officer believes they have a jusyfiable don't they get a different coloured paper that will only be counted if it could have affected the result. I may have dreamt this thoughnot_on_fire said:
If they registered before the deadline then they have every right to be on the register. Shocking failure by the council.SimonStClare said:
They’ve had seven weeks to get their names on the local register. They’ll know for next time.AndyJS said:From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."0 -
Well, she is old enough to vote for Scottish independencekjh said:My daughter has had a gazillion adverts from the SNP (2 just now). She is 16 and we live in Surrey.
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The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.Pulpstar said:
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.rcs1000 said:
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.calum said:
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.0 -
I believe East Lothian is worth a bet on Labour. Have you any knowledge?Theuniondivvie said:
I think your rellie is safe. I'd be surprised if SLab get more than 3 unless there really is something tectonic going on under the surface. Reasonable chance of SLab getting a higher vote share than SCons which would put Ruth 'smasher of tomorrows, sneaky recorder of telephone convos, deleter of tweets' Davidson's gas at a peep.Roger said:
That's elegant. Any advance on two seats for Labour in Scotland tonight?Theuniondivvie said:Oldies for Jez.
https://twitter.com/_AngelaLansbury/status/872559410379444224
I actually think this is quite a cool celeb endorsement. Obviously runs in the family.
I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.0 -
It would certainly cut both ways.Casino_Royale said:
I have a stop-loss at £250, I think.Peter_the_Punter said:
Same stake as me, but due to earlier trading I'm on at 180. I'm expecting a result very close to 200 but can cope with anything but a complete meltdown - under 150 would be ugly, but I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen.Casino_Royale said:
I've sold at £10.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, but if I were starting with a blank sheet now I'd be a seller at 207, for small stakes.Casino_Royale said:
You still have half open then?Peter_the_Punter said:
I did the same about a week ago, but just sold half my stake. Glad I did because I would otherwise have been a nervous wreck by now.Casino_Royale said:I bedwetted out of the spreads last night.
Now trying to decide whether to go back in, and onto what.
Already sort of regretting, but that's because I'm a big jessie.
I presume that also equates to a "stop-gain" as well though.0 -
I'll be doing my version for a while, see my post below for my email of you'd like to help out. It's here:Philip_Thompson said:Apologies if this has been asked repeatedly but is there a link to the spreadsheet @AndyJS that is going to be updated dynamically through the night?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzHr6kGmnaPqF_kzjODs0rUGOAvTE3F71rJ119yRvak/edit#gid=00 -
Try:AndyJS said:
Sounds interesting, but I can't see anything after the colon.BenedictWhite said:I've put an edited copy of AndyJS's spreadsheet here:
I have updated it so that 2017 figures can be entered to calculate running totals. I will be editing it for a while but not all night.
If anyone wants to get edit access to my copy (as opposed to downloading it and playing with it) email me at benedictmpwhite at gmail dhat com.
Many thanks to Andy JS for all his hard work.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzHr6kGmnaPqF_kzjODs0rUGOAvTE3F71rJ119yRvak/edit#gid=00 -
Sky News Election Night coverage starts in 5 minutes.0
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The SeanT demographic have voted
@geraintgriffith: I'm voting Labour because I believe in a fairer society for EVERYONE. And because socialist birds are dirty.
Bedwetting index update
The man himself is porting from Rome. Not in an upbeat mood. Predicting small if any Tory gains. All this for nothing...0 -
One hour, four and a half minutes until the exit poll.
Thirty four minutes until I open a bottle of wine.0 -
Looks like Ceredigion is to be among the earlier declarations, should be a god sign how bad a night it is for the LDs.
Con Maj 40 predicted still though.0 -
Pulpstar said:
Blue collar Tories will turn out.RoyalBlue said:I think turnout in the shires will be down. I think turnout of blue-collar Tories will be up. That's who May needs.
I think the opposite. Turnout up in the shires from what I've heard...RoyalBlue said:I think turnout in the shires will be down. I think turnout of blue-collar Tories will be up. That's who May needs.
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Still feel Tories will get majority of c.80. Hoping Labour don't fall below 200 and Lib Dem get at least 10.
Have to be up early to go to Bristol for a meeting in the morning so will be trying not to stay up late. Then Stratford races tomorrow evening so it could be a while before I get to digest results.
To be honest despite being a left liberal I'm relaxed at a Tory majority. The next 5 years are going to be a shit sandwich when all sorts of problems come home to roost. I'm glad it'll be on the Tories watch.0 -
I have spent the day in Sheffield and Leeds. Surprisingly little signs of activity in Hallam, more in Central, and virtually nothing elsewhere. Amazing amount of posters in Leeds NW - they have a local policy of allowing stakeboards on highway verges and central reservations. Mostly Labour in Headingly and but increasingly LD north of the ring road. Also of interest is that the LD posters say Re-elect Greg and Greg it is. The only other similar example of this I know is Tessa(Munt) in Wells.0
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61 minutes till I hit the whisky and start learning the Venezuelan national anthem.0
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Dunno is the honest answer. Kerevan is a strong candidate and quite a lefty (ex Marxist, ex Labour etc), so he might be able to disarm any Corbyn surge.Roger said:
I believe East Lothian is worth a bet on Labour. Have you any knowledge?Theuniondivvie said:
I think your rellie is safe. I'd be surprised if SLab get more than 3 unless there really is something tectonic going on under the surface. Reasonable chance of SLab getting a higher vote share than SCons which would put Ruth 'smasher of tomorrows, sneaky recorder of telephone convos, deleter of tweets' Davidson's gas at a peep.Roger said:
That's elegant. Any advance on two seats for Labour in Scotland tonight?Theuniondivvie said:Oldies for Jez.
https://twitter.com/_AngelaLansbury/status/872559410379444224
I actually think this is quite a cool celeb endorsement. Obviously runs in the family.
I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.0 -
One hour to go and I am already bricking it!0
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One Hour!!!!0
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I feel sick.0
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Ceredgion: the question is can the LDs persuade the Conservatives to tactically vote for them to avoid a Plaid win?kle4 said:Looks like Ceredigion is to be among the earlier declarations, should be a god sign how bad a night it is for the LDs.
Con Maj 40 predicted still though.
The answer is, they can *probably* persuade enough. But it'll probably be a seat where the gap between LD, PC and Con shrinks dramatically.
After Leeds NW, Southport, C&W and North Norfolk, it's probably the next most vulnerable LD seat.0 -
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I vote on a basketball court.OUT said:Who voted in the most unusual polling station.
Saw a train carriage used Yorkshire.
Mine, a boring old church hall.0 -
Is there a bellweather constituency? A constituency which gets it right almost all the time? In the US theres a county in Indiana that has got elections right for decades for example?0
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Project Shit-Your-Pants.0
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Interesting, as it seems practically every model thinks they can manage it - I guess due to uncertainty of who would snatch it up (saw one which had it as a four way)rcs1000 said:
Ceredgion: the question is can the LDs persuade the Conservatives to tactically vote for them to avoid a Plaid win?kle4 said:Looks like Ceredigion is to be among the earlier declarations, should be a god sign how bad a night it is for the LDs.
Con Maj 40 predicted still though.
The answer is, they can *probably* persuade enough. But it'll probably be a seat where the gap between LD, PC and Con shrinks dramatically.
After Leeds NW, Southport, C&W and North Norfolk, it's probably the next most vulnerable LD seat.0 -
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.rcs1000 said:
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.Pulpstar said:
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.rcs1000 said:
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.calum said:
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.0 -
I'm more relaxed than I was in 2015!
But I could be wrong!
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Dartford most reliable since 1964.Garza said:Is there a bellweather constituency? A constituency which gets it right almost all the time? In the US theres a county in Indiana that has got elections right for decades for example?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellwether#United_Kingdom0 -
Update from Birkhill. Still going like a fair. Turnout exceptional, at a level not seen since the referendum. Not so much in Dundee City apparently.
Dare I believe this is when Scotland does indeed say "enough".0 -
Clearly he hasn't been to a Tory Youth Freshers Piss Up in Uni, the Tory girls are wild, and far more beautiful :-D.Scott_P said:The SeanT demographic have voted
@geraintgriffith: I'm voting Labour because I believe in a fairer society for EVERYONE. And because socialist birds are dirty.
Bedwetting index update
The man himself is porting from Rome. Not in an upbeat mood. Predicting small if any Tory gains. All this for nothing...0 -
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I've been feeling pretty confident all day that my bedwetting tendencies were in check, but they're creeping up again. Is there something in the water? Are YouGov and their model right? Will it be close to Survation? Ugh.0
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The thing about the Tory strategy is that they've gone way, way beyond enemy lines. Is there a chance they find themselves stranded?0
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It's hard to find consistent bellwethers in the UK as the boundaries are constantly changing (though not in this election)Garza said:Is there a bellweather constituency? A constituency which gets it right almost all the time? In the US theres a county in Indiana that has got elections right for decades for example?
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Anna SoubryVerified account @Anna_Soubry 3m3 minutes ago
Labour have some cars with megaphones racing round #Broxtowe The only audible words are "Vote" and "Soubry" which is generous of them.
lol0 -
@tracey_thorn: @janemerrick23 @youngvulgarian Look, it's not a disco nap unless you're going out to a disco. This is, I dunno, a Nap of Doom, or something. A dread nap, a disaster nap.0
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Agreed.Pulpstar said:
I'm not. Ed Miliband would have been ok.Ave_it said:I'm more relaxed than I was in 2015!
But I could be wrong!
Personally I think they planned for a very offensive strategy deep in the Tory heartlands, then didn't adjust when things started to converge and risk losing seats as a result - we shall soon see if they were right to hold the course, or if they were deluding themselves.alex. said:The thing about the Tory strategy is that they've gone way, way beyond enemy lines. Is there a chance they find themselves stranded?
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Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)calum said:
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.rcs1000 said:
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.Pulpstar said:
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.rcs1000 said:
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.calum said:
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.0 -
If Labour wins we are all buggered.Casino_Royale said:I've just sold Labour on the spreads.
I may lose money on it but, if Corbyn wins, I am buggered anyway so what the hell.
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Good luck to everyone betting tonight.0
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@AndrewCooper__: About now, in a locked room in a secret London location, John Curtice & the brilliant exit poll team place their final spread bets
This is agony0 -
Someone's keeping their sense of humour at least, good for her.jonny83 said:Anna SoubryVerified account @Anna_Soubry 3m3 minutes ago
Labour have some cars with megaphones racing round #Broxtowe The only audible words are "Vote" and "Soubry" which is generous of them.
lol0 -
Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.rcs1000 said:
Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)calum said:
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.rcs1000 said:
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.Pulpstar said:
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.rcs1000 said:
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.calum said:
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.0 -
So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.0
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LOL!Scott_P said:@AndrewCooper__: About now, in a locked room in a secret London location, John Curtice & the brilliant exit poll team place their final spread bets
This is agony0 -
Drcent turnout in C&W and also Sutton
The local bin issue weighing on the LD vote..0 -
It was getting a bit too Sheffield Rally.The_Apocalypse said:So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.
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One thing I think is likely is that the margin of error on the exit poll may be a lot wider than usual.Scott_P said:@AndrewCooper__: About now, in a locked room in a secret London location, John Curtice & the brilliant exit poll team place their final spread bets
This is agony0 -
Thought a big Tory majority nailed on and looking forward to the fun. Went to the polling station - just me and 4 young women, none more than 21, all certain Corbynites. Nerves slightly frayed. Wine bottle opened.
Thanks to all who contribute regularly here for the knowledge, insights and entertainment. A long time lurker - it's the only place to be on nights like this.0 -
As the only calm person, what's your prediction? I have to know!!!The_Apocalypse said:So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.
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I'm feeling intensely relaxed tonight... Mainly because I'm not that invested either way.
I'd prefer May overall but if it's Jezza... Well, we'll have an entertaining few years on PB! 0 -
Hi there. Does "none more than 21, all certain Corbynites" include you?Euripides said:Thought a big Tory majority nailed on and looking forward to the fun. Went to the polling station - just me and 4 young women, none more than 21, all certain Corbynites. Nerves slightly frayed. Wine bottle opened.
Thanks to all who contribute regularly here for the knowledge, insights and entertainment. A long time lurker - it's the only place to be on nights like this.0 -
Erm....I'm leaning towards Con majority.kle4 said:
As the only calm person, what's your prediction? I have to know!!!The_Apocalypse said:So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.
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Yeah, Can't see there will be a UNS. There'll be massive swings and no swings. And Scotland needs polling separately.alex. said:
One thing I think is likely is that the margin of error on the exit poll may be a lot wider than usual.Scott_P said:@AndrewCooper__: About now, in a locked room in a secret London location, John Curtice & the brilliant exit poll team place their final spread bets
This is agony0 -
Just voted (Lancashire West - 87 on the list of Labour defences). Staff at the polling station say it has been much busier than normal. There seemed to be a steady stream of people arriving to vote which is not something I have ever seen before at my polling station. No sign of an army of young voters (or, indeed, any young voters at all). No real feeling for how it is going except the Conservatives have been far more active than normal. UKIP finished third last time and aren't standing this time so it could be closer than UNS but I would be surprised if the Conservatives win.
The only straw in the wind is that my wife, a life-long Labour voter on the basis that she considers herself working class and regards them as the party for the working class, definitely hasn't voted Labour this time. She detests Corbyn. I don't know if she has gone for one of the minor parties or has taken the plunge and voted Conservative.0 -
Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?0
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Just got in, 8 cans of dead pony club to celebrate the beginning of the end of the SNP.0
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Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross?DavidL said:
Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.rcs1000 said:
Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)calum said:
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.rcs1000 said:
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.Pulpstar said:
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.rcs1000 said:
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.calum said:
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
Good performance for the Libs in Holyrood, difficult to read the local tea leaves due to large number of independents. Possible, but I suspect it's an SNP hold.0 -
Speaking from a purely betting opportunities viewpoint, Corbyn becoming PM/May losing Dave's majority would be great for PB.0
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Yes, but by how much?!! And Labour need to do badly enough that Corbyn goes!The_Apocalypse said:
Erm....I'm leaning towards Con majority.kle4 said:
As the only calm person, what's your prediction? I have to know!!!The_Apocalypse said:So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.
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I think I counted as one in 2010!The_Apocalypse said:Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?
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Yes. I think they will take it by standing still as the Nat vote falls.rcs1000 said:
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross?DavidL said:
Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.rcs1000 said:
Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)calum said:
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.rcs1000 said:
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.Pulpstar said:
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.rcs1000 said:
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.calum said:
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
Good performance for the Libs in Holyrood, difficult to read the local tea leaves due to large number of independents. Possible, but I suspect it's an SNP hold.0 -
I haven't heard them....kle4 said:
Someone's keeping their sense of humour at least, good for her.jonny83 said:Anna SoubryVerified account @Anna_Soubry 3m3 minutes ago
Labour have some cars with megaphones racing round #Broxtowe The only audible words are "Vote" and "Soubry" which is generous of them.
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Amazed they can both register and get out of bed before 10pm, apparently.The_Apocalypse said:Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?
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I have no idea.kle4 said:
Yes, but by how much?!! And Labour need to do badly enough that Corbyn goes!The_Apocalypse said:
Erm....I'm leaning towards Con majority.kle4 said:
As the only calm person, what's your prediction? I have to know!!!The_Apocalypse said:So I see it's bedwetting time on here again.
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Funnily enough I saw a youngster (early 20s) this afternoon at my polling station which was unexpected.The_Apocalypse said:Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?
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There were loads in my polling station this morning. But it's a city centre seat, and as rock-solid Labour as they come, so take from that what you will.The_Apocalypse said:Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?
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True, but watching the government blow up the deficit right before Brexit would be rather terrifying.TheScreamingEagles said:Speaking from a purely betting opportunities viewpoint, Corbyn becoming PM/May losing Dave's majority would be great for PB.
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Worst lies of the election campaign
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/guido-fawkes-worst-lies-election-campaign/
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