I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
Mischievous leaflet put out by Labour types last night claiming that Green candidate was recommending voting for Clive Lewis: "I Love Green but I'm Voting for Clive". Green candidate denies any pact and urges people to vote for him. Those crazy Momentum guys!
This might explain high turnout in 'Golden Triangle' wards. If as a result, Greens and Labour start to cancel each other out in the terraced streets, the Tory might, just might come up the middle from voters in leafier Eaton, New Costessey, Bowthorpe and the nicer parts of Lakenham & Town Close.
Meanwhile LibDem candidate tweets they've abandoned the campaigning in the seat [which they won in 2010] to shore-up Norman Lamb in NorthNorfolk. Squeaky bum time for Norman and leaving Eaton ward undefended.
I'd like to be able to bet with, rather than against, my preferred outcome - but alas I don't think it will come to pass.
Positions: BUY Tory seats for £5 at 362-364 seats on Spreadex BACK Tory majority at 1.24 on Betfair, for £200 profit in the (expected) event Various small constituency and miscellaneous bets on Betfair
Think there will be a lot of torn Labour voters out there tonight? Some feeling that Corbyn has to go but know it might take a big Conservative result to force that change? Some perhaps hoping it is a 100 or more Tory majority so to get rid of Corbyn?
There is a real danger tonight he could do well enough to stay on especially in terms of percentage of the vote. I guess there is the argument if he increases say the vote share that Miliband got that his politics is a viable brand and the country might be open to a hard left government. But if Corbyn is still a major turn off they might never go all the way in letting Labour back in.
If I was a Labour voter I might want a pasting tonight, get rid of Corbyn and go back to the center left hoping that Brexit damages the Conservatives badly and ready to take over at the next election.
I'm guessing that even if Corbyn increases the Labour share by just 0.5% he'll use it as a reason to stay on, no matter how badly he does in terms of seats.
I actually think this is quite a cool celeb endorsement. Obviously runs in the family.
That's elegant. Any advance on two seats for Labour in Scotland tonight?
I think your rellie is safe. I'd be surprised if SLab get more than 3 unless there really is something tectonic going on under the surface. Reasonable chance of SLab getting a higher vote share than SCons which would put Ruth 'smasher of tomorrows, sneaky recorder of telephone convos, deleter of tweets' Davidson's gas at a peep.
I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.
Now trying to decide whether to go back in, and onto what.
I did the same about a week ago, but just sold half my stake. Glad I did because I would otherwise have been a nervous wreck by now.
You still have half open then?
Yes, but if I were starting with a blank sheet now I'd be a seller at 207, for small stakes.
I've sold at £10.
Already sort of regretting, but that's because I'm a big jessie.
Same stake as me, but due to earlier trading I'm on at 180. I'm expecting a result very close to 200 but can cope with anything but a complete meltdown - under 150 would be ugly, but I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen.
I have a stop-loss at £250, I think.
I presume that also equates to a "stop-gain" as well though.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
In the unlikely event he does go down we can mark it down as a self-decapitation !
Mischievous leaflet put out by Labour types last night claiming that Green candidate was recommending voting for Clive Lewis: "I Love Green but I'm Voting for Clive". Green candidate denies any pact and urges people to vote for him. Those crazy Momentum guys!
This might explain high turnout in 'Golden Triangle' wards. If as a result, Greens and Labour start to cancel each other out in the terraced streets, the Tory might, just might come up the middle from voters in leafier Eaton, New Costessey, Bowthorpe and the nicer parts of Lakenham & Town Close.
Meanwhile LibDem candidate tweets they've abandoned the campaigning in the seat [which they won in 2010] to shore-up Norman Lamb in NorthNorfolk. Squeaky bum time for Norman and leaving Eaton ward undefended.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.
Honestly the Greens will all vote Labour. They won't risk a Tory (I think)
From the VoteUK forum, regarding Newcastle-under-Lyme:
"There appear to be problems with students from Keele University being turned away from voting. Newcastle Borough Council are advising that late registrations may not have been included on the voting lists sent out."
They’ve had seven weeks to get their names on the local register. They’ll know for next time.
If they registered before the deadline then they have every right to be on the register. Shocking failure by the council.
If the polling officer believes they have a jusyfiable don't they get a different coloured paper that will only be counted if it could have affected the result. I may have dreamt this though
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
I actually think this is quite a cool celeb endorsement. Obviously runs in the family.
That's elegant. Any advance on two seats for Labour in Scotland tonight?
I think your rellie is safe. I'd be surprised if SLab get more than 3 unless there really is something tectonic going on under the surface. Reasonable chance of SLab getting a higher vote share than SCons which would put Ruth 'smasher of tomorrows, sneaky recorder of telephone convos, deleter of tweets' Davidson's gas at a peep.
I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.
I believe East Lothian is worth a bet on Labour. Have you any knowledge?
Now trying to decide whether to go back in, and onto what.
I did the same about a week ago, but just sold half my stake. Glad I did because I would otherwise have been a nervous wreck by now.
You still have half open then?
Yes, but if I were starting with a blank sheet now I'd be a seller at 207, for small stakes.
I've sold at £10.
Already sort of regretting, but that's because I'm a big jessie.
Same stake as me, but due to earlier trading I'm on at 180. I'm expecting a result very close to 200 but can cope with anything but a complete meltdown - under 150 would be ugly, but I'm pretty sure that isn't going to happen.
I have a stop-loss at £250, I think.
I presume that also equates to a "stop-gain" as well though.
Still feel Tories will get majority of c.80. Hoping Labour don't fall below 200 and Lib Dem get at least 10.
Have to be up early to go to Bristol for a meeting in the morning so will be trying not to stay up late. Then Stratford races tomorrow evening so it could be a while before I get to digest results.
To be honest despite being a left liberal I'm relaxed at a Tory majority. The next 5 years are going to be a shit sandwich when all sorts of problems come home to roost. I'm glad it'll be on the Tories watch.
I have spent the day in Sheffield and Leeds. Surprisingly little signs of activity in Hallam, more in Central, and virtually nothing elsewhere. Amazing amount of posters in Leeds NW - they have a local policy of allowing stakeboards on highway verges and central reservations. Mostly Labour in Headingly and but increasingly LD north of the ring road. Also of interest is that the LD posters say Re-elect Greg and Greg it is. The only other similar example of this I know is Tessa(Munt) in Wells.
I actually think this is quite a cool celeb endorsement. Obviously runs in the family.
That's elegant. Any advance on two seats for Labour in Scotland tonight?
I think your rellie is safe. I'd be surprised if SLab get more than 3 unless there really is something tectonic going on under the surface. Reasonable chance of SLab getting a higher vote share than SCons which would put Ruth 'smasher of tomorrows, sneaky recorder of telephone convos, deleter of tweets' Davidson's gas at a peep.
I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.
I believe East Lothian is worth a bet on Labour. Have you any knowledge?
Dunno is the honest answer. Kerevan is a strong candidate and quite a lefty (ex Marxist, ex Labour etc), so he might be able to disarm any Corbyn surge.
Is there a bellweather constituency? A constituency which gets it right almost all the time? In the US theres a county in Indiana that has got elections right for decades for example?
Looks like Ceredigion is to be among the earlier declarations, should be a god sign how bad a night it is for the LDs.
Con Maj 40 predicted still though.
Ceredgion: the question is can the LDs persuade the Conservatives to tactically vote for them to avoid a Plaid win?
The answer is, they can *probably* persuade enough. But it'll probably be a seat where the gap between LD, PC and Con shrinks dramatically.
After Leeds NW, Southport, C&W and North Norfolk, it's probably the next most vulnerable LD seat.
Interesting, as it seems practically every model thinks they can manage it - I guess due to uncertainty of who would snatch it up (saw one which had it as a four way)
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
Is there a bellweather constituency? A constituency which gets it right almost all the time? In the US theres a county in Indiana that has got elections right for decades for example?
I've been feeling pretty confident all day that my bedwetting tendencies were in check, but they're creeping up again. Is there something in the water? Are YouGov and their model right? Will it be close to Survation? Ugh.
Is there a bellweather constituency? A constituency which gets it right almost all the time? In the US theres a county in Indiana that has got elections right for decades for example?
It's hard to find consistent bellwethers in the UK as the boundaries are constantly changing (though not in this election)
@tracey_thorn: @janemerrick23@youngvulgarian Look, it's not a disco nap unless you're going out to a disco. This is, I dunno, a Nap of Doom, or something. A dread nap, a disaster nap.
The thing about the Tory strategy is that they've gone way, way beyond enemy lines. Is there a chance they find themselves stranded?
Personally I think they planned for a very offensive strategy deep in the Tory heartlands, then didn't adjust when things started to converge and risk losing seats as a result - we shall soon see if they were right to hold the course, or if they were deluding themselves.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.
Thought a big Tory majority nailed on and looking forward to the fun. Went to the polling station - just me and 4 young women, none more than 21, all certain Corbynites. Nerves slightly frayed. Wine bottle opened. Thanks to all who contribute regularly here for the knowledge, insights and entertainment. A long time lurker - it's the only place to be on nights like this.
Thought a big Tory majority nailed on and looking forward to the fun. Went to the polling station - just me and 4 young women, none more than 21, all certain Corbynites. Nerves slightly frayed. Wine bottle opened. Thanks to all who contribute regularly here for the knowledge, insights and entertainment. A long time lurker - it's the only place to be on nights like this.
Hi there. Does "none more than 21, all certain Corbynites" include you?
Just voted (Lancashire West - 87 on the list of Labour defences). Staff at the polling station say it has been much busier than normal. There seemed to be a steady stream of people arriving to vote which is not something I have ever seen before at my polling station. No sign of an army of young voters (or, indeed, any young voters at all). No real feeling for how it is going except the Conservatives have been far more active than normal. UKIP finished third last time and aren't standing this time so it could be closer than UNS but I would be surprised if the Conservatives win.
The only straw in the wind is that my wife, a life-long Labour voter on the basis that she considers herself working class and regards them as the party for the working class, definitely hasn't voted Labour this time. She detests Corbyn. I don't know if she has gone for one of the minor parties or has taken the plunge and voted Conservative.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross?
Good performance for the Libs in Holyrood, difficult to read the local tea leaves due to large number of independents. Possible, but I suspect it's an SNP hold.
I quite like Nicholson.. will be a shame if he goes.
That is wonderful misdirection to Lib/Con undecideds.
SCON's use of national polling data at a constituency level has muddied the waters as well.
The LDs did poorly in the Holyrood elections in the East Dunbartonshire constituency too. I think it'll be an SNP hold.
There were only two constituencies which the LDs "won" at both Holyrood and in the locals: Edinburgh West and Fife NE. (Orkney & Shetland is full of independents.)
I hope Carmichael hasn't put the indies off.
The SNP scored 8,590 votes last time around. They will likely fall back about 1,000, and perhaps as many as 2,000. That puts them on (say) 7,000 votes.
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
SNP have a homegrown candidate this time and the locals have an independent streak - would've been safer to put up one of the 2 MSPs.
Agreed: either Tavish or Liam would likely have walked it. (As would Rennie in NE Fife.)
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
Agreed. Its the seat next door that is interesting. Still think the Lib Dems might spring a surprise there.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross?
Good performance for the Libs in Holyrood, difficult to read the local tea leaves due to large number of independents. Possible, but I suspect it's an SNP hold.
Yes. I think they will take it by standing still as the Nat vote falls.
Have people on this site never seen young people at polling stations or something?
There were loads in my polling station this morning. But it's a city centre seat, and as rock-solid Labour as they come, so take from that what you will.
Comments
Mischievous leaflet put out by Labour types last night claiming that Green candidate was recommending voting for Clive Lewis: "I Love Green but I'm Voting for Clive". Green candidate denies any pact and urges people to vote for him. Those crazy Momentum guys!
This might explain high turnout in 'Golden Triangle' wards. If as a result, Greens and Labour start to cancel each other out in the terraced streets, the Tory might, just might come up the middle from voters in leafier Eaton, New Costessey, Bowthorpe and the nicer parts of Lakenham & Town Close.
Meanwhile LibDem candidate tweets they've abandoned the campaigning in the seat [which they won in 2010] to shore-up Norman Lamb in NorthNorfolk. Squeaky bum time for Norman and leaving Eaton ward undefended.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot.
Positions: BUY Tory seats for £5 at 362-364 seats on Spreadex
BACK Tory majority at 1.24 on Betfair, for £200 profit in the (expected) event
Various small constituency and miscellaneous bets on Betfair
I'm expecting a Tory majority of around 70
I tried a little thought experiment with myself; if I lived in a constituency where SLab & SCon were neck & neck with the SNP a mediocre third, how would I vote? Unless the SLab candidate was the archetypal horrible old fence post salivating at raking in the expenses, it would have to be Jez.
I presume that also equates to a "stop-gain" as well though.
Saw a train carriage used Yorkshire.
Mine, a boring old church hall.
Like most people thinking 80-100 Con maj due to many young people not being registered and due to Lab's vote being less efficiently distributed.
The LibDems got 14,500 votes in the Holyrood elections last year.
Alistair Carmichael would have to have mislaid half of them to lose his seat.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzHr6kGmnaPqF_kzjODs0rUGOAvTE3F71rJ119yRvak/edit#gid=0
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzHr6kGmnaPqF_kzjODs0rUGOAvTE3F71rJ119yRvak/edit#gid=0
@geraintgriffith: I'm voting Labour because I believe in a fairer society for EVERYONE. And because socialist birds are dirty.
Bedwetting index update
The man himself is porting from Rome. Not in an upbeat mood. Predicting small if any Tory gains. All this for nothing...
Thirty four minutes until I open a bottle of wine.
Con Maj 40 predicted still though.
Have to be up early to go to Bristol for a meeting in the morning so will be trying not to stay up late. Then Stratford races tomorrow evening so it could be a while before I get to digest results.
To be honest despite being a left liberal I'm relaxed at a Tory majority. The next 5 years are going to be a shit sandwich when all sorts of problems come home to roost. I'm glad it'll be on the Tories watch.
The answer is, they can *probably* persuade enough. But it'll probably be a seat where the gap between LD, PC and Con shrinks dramatically.
After Leeds NW, Southport, C&W and North Norfolk, it's probably the next most vulnerable LD seat.
https://twitter.com/graemearcher/status/872903771193528321
https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/872904124291063808
But I could be wrong!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellwether#United_Kingdom
Dare I believe this is when Scotland does indeed say "enough".
Labour have some cars with megaphones racing round #Broxtowe The only audible words are "Vote" and "Soubry" which is generous of them.
lol
But the SNP have gone backward since the last election (losing their remaining councillor in Shetland last month), and 2016 proved the LDs are very strong in the constituency. No-one senior from the SNP has even bothered to visit the constituency.
I'd reckon the Carmichael will get 50-55% of the vote, against around 30% for the SNP.
This is agony
The local bin issue weighing on the LD vote..
Thanks to all who contribute regularly here for the knowledge, insights and entertainment. A long time lurker - it's the only place to be on nights like this.
I'd prefer May overall but if it's Jezza... Well, we'll have an entertaining few years on PB!
The only straw in the wind is that my wife, a life-long Labour voter on the basis that she considers herself working class and regards them as the party for the working class, definitely hasn't voted Labour this time. She detests Corbyn. I don't know if she has gone for one of the minor parties or has taken the plunge and voted Conservative.
Good performance for the Libs in Holyrood, difficult to read the local tea leaves due to large number of independents. Possible, but I suspect it's an SNP hold.
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/guido-fawkes-worst-lies-election-campaign/