politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

Richard_Nabavi said:

Still, everyone agrees on one thing: the LibDems.

Didn't everyone agree last time the Lib Dems would be 20+?

I recall one punter here had a "brave" bet of Lib Dems 10-19 that failed unexpectedly by being too 'optimistic' for them rather than too pessimistic as expected.

In other words, we could all be wrong.

Been told by an acquaintance that it'll be around 3am before most of the Tory targets will be declared in Scotland - we should have an overall picture by then though, right?

A first for me today - leafleting for the Lib Dems in Yardley.

When you vote tomorrow remember our creaking public services and consider if you can rely on them getting even worse. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1706754

Floater said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Still, everyone agrees on one thing: the LibDems.

apart from Mark Senior of course.....

Even Mark had them on only 12.

Mortimer said:

midwinter said:

Mortimer said:

Alistair said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ave_it said:

So:

David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.

He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.

JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.

BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.

Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.

But, but - what about Bootle?

I stick to my prediction of a 1979-type result, if you add SNP to Labour.

Part of me wonders if the voters might deliver some poetic justice, and return May with an almost identical majority to Dave in GE2015.

Which would be funnier, a majority of

Exactly Dave
Dave+1
Dave -1

All of the above.

I'd have to take back about 500 posts about her superior electoral appeal...

Chortle.....and the bit about Francis Maude from earlier please?

Massive fan of him. Also Lord Maude just sounds immense.

Cheers...just spat tea all over my laptop

Chris_A said:

A first for me today - leafleting for the Lib Dems in Yardley.

When you vote tomorrow remember our creaking public services and consider if you can rely on them getting even worse. /NEJMp1706754

We can definitely rely on that happening.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Ultimately it is the judges not the EC that decides, and the law can't be changed retrospectively. And, if the Supreme Court eventually found against the Conservatives, would we not face a rerun of the general election in every marginal constituency up and down the country?

Very unlikely that a party or any individuals would get into trouble for following Electoral Commission guidelines, even if the court decides the guidelines were wrong.

Indeed isn't the law that the candidate must have knowingly made false representations? Following Electoral Commission guidelines can't be knowingly false.

Chris_A said:

A first for me today - leafleting for the Lib Dems in Yardley.

When you vote tomorrow remember our creaking public services and consider if you can rely on them getting even worse. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1706754

Best of luck in Yardley, Jess looks way too far in front based on national trends to shift though.

MarqueeMark said:

So - YouGov.

Either -

a) full of shit for the past 10 days

b) decided to herd

c) they have picked up on a massive late swing against Corbyn

d) a combo of the above.

I'll take c) for three points, Bob.

The Manchester bomb on the 22nd produced a spike in the lead that lasted by about three days. Coincidentally, there was a four-day gap in the turnout model polls (22-26) so they didn't catch it. The self-reported LTV polls *did* catch it but since they were running lower, it wasn't obvious

The London attack and swingback has produced a similar spike, which the polls have now caught up on, regardless of mode.

I'm working late tonight so will not be able to correspond further til around 2am.

RobinWiggs said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Caol Isla is the best for me too, though all Islay whisky is divine.

Bunnahabhain for me. Delicious,

Not quite right for me, but just poured myself a Bowmore. If I am not up in the morning it is you bastard's fault.

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

Final Comres swings by region since 2015

NorthEast
Cons 44
Lab 41
LD 9
Swing 12.5% Labour to Cons

NorthWest
Cons 42
Lab 45
LD 6
Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

Yorkshire and Humber
Cons 46
Lab 41
LD 7
Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

West Midlands
Cons 46
Lab 34
LD 10
Swing 1.5% Labour to Cons

East Midlands
Cons 51
Lab 35
LD 3
Swing 2% Labour to Cons

Wales
Cons 40
Lab 38
LD 5
Swing 6% Labour to Cons

East
Cons 51
Lab 30
LD 12
Swing 3% Cons to Labour

London
Cons 42
Lab 41
LD 11
Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons

South East
Cons 47
Lab 29
LD 13
Swing 7.5% Cons to Labour

South West
Cons 49
Lab 29
LD 12
Swing 4.5% Cons to Labour

Scotland
Cons 27
Lab 16
SNP 45
LD 9
Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf

Hmm maybe not very positive overall for the Tories. They will do much better in the North of England, but broadly neutral or going backwards​ elsewhere. Bear in mind ComRes is the polling company that rates the Conservatives highest.

Having just done a back of an envelope calculation those regional Comres swings would give an overall Tory majority of 80, ICM is actually slightly better for the Tories than Comres

midwinter said:

Mortimer said:

midwinter said:

Mortimer said:

Alistair said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ave_it said:

So:

David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.

He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.

JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.

BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.

Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.

But, but - what about Bootle?

I stick to my prediction of a 1979-type result, if you add SNP to Labour.

Part of me wonders if the voters might deliver some poetic justice, and return May with an almost identical majority to Dave in GE2015.

Which would be funnier, a majority of

Exactly Dave
Dave+1
Dave -1

All of the above.

I'd have to take back about 500 posts about her superior electoral appeal...

Chortle.....and the bit about Francis Maude from earlier please?

Massive fan of him. Also Lord Maude just sounds immense.

Cheers...just spat tea all over my laptop

Providing you've been following my tips, Mrs May's results should more than cover a new one

Survation are going to get a lot of crap chucked their way now if they suddenly tilt to +4/+5ish......

I can't comment on whiskies, i'm a teetotaller so it will be water, cups of tea and maybe some Coke Zero or Pepsi Max tomorrow night for me lol.

But I have the snacks ready, will be watching the TV, checking this place throughout the night both on laptop and then on phone when my battery goes lol and I have also printed of AndyJS's brilliant spreadsheet

I have pretty much everything set, i'm slightly nervous only because of recent shock results at elections but quietly confident that May will remain PM just not clear how big the margin will be. Thinking something like by a 50-80 majority right now.

Was YouGov the Boon KABOOM?

isam said:

midwinter said:

Mortimer said:

midwinter said:

Mortimer said:

Alistair said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ave_it said:

So:

David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.

He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.

JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.

BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.

Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.

But, but - what about Bootle?

I stick to my prediction of a 1979-type result, if you add SNP to Labour.

Part of me wonders if the voters might deliver some poetic justice, and return May with an almost identical majority to Dave in GE2015.

Which would be funnier, a majority of

Exactly Dave
Dave+1
Dave -1

All of the above.

I'd have to take back about 500 posts about her superior electoral appeal...

Chortle.....and the bit about Francis Maude from earlier please?

Massive fan of him. Also Lord Maude just sounds immense.

Cheers...just spat tea all over my laptop

Isn't that a Happy Mondays song?

Sounds like it should be half man half biscuit....

Nigelb said:

Interesting Matthew Parris bit about May on Newsnight.
Eric Pickles seriously off message on how bad May is at negotiation.

Very interesting.

If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.

Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.

hunchman said:

Nigelb said:

hunchman said:

HurstLlama said:

kyf_100 said:

Andrew said:

Alistair said:

I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?

Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.

The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.

If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.

I am a lover of the Laphroaig and have been for many, many years. But it is not a Whisky suitable for drinking on all occasions. Late in the evening, after a good meal, it is hard to beat or late on a cold winter's afternoon after a day in the open air. It is not, in my view, an all day whisky; I would not, for example, fill my flask with it when going out for a morning on the local shoot (the Grouse is good enough for those sort of events).

I don't hold with putting water in it either. A separate glass of still mineral water and take them in alternate sips seems the best way to of drinking a fine whisky to me.

I picked up a £25 bottle of Talisker Skye tonight with £7 knocked off it for tomorrow night. I promptly gave £2 of it back when I walked out of the store to help a driver short on petrol to get back home. Laphroaig is lovely, but my favourite is Caol Isla, the bottle I had was simply divine.

Ted Heath's favoured tipple, reportedly (Talisker).
Apologies if I just ruined it...

You just did! Heath, not withstanding the ongoing investigations by Mike Veale of the Wiltshire Police, was in my opinion easily the worst Tory PM post WW2 (exempting Eden and Suez). Arguably, things may have been different if Iain Macleod hadn't died a few weeks into the Heath government and had served as chancellor throughout rather than Anthony Barber - a fascinating counterfactual I think. And a far more enlightened policy on NI would have helped too.

I thought the investigation had concluded?

What the heck is going on at Survation?

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/06/07/if-jeremy-corbyn-leads-a-minority-government-he-needs-to-scrap-the-fixed-term-parliament-act/

Interesting to think what a Con opposition response would be, as it couldn't be repealed without them agreeing I think as a 2/3 provision was included? Or is it a simple majority to repeal?

Repealing it was in the Con manifesto IIRC, but leaving Corbyn to tough it out until a no confidence vote rather than give him the freedom to choose a date, would be appealing.

GIN1138 said:

What the heck is going on at Survation?

Diane is just finishing the adding up. She says the lead is 2, I mean 50, no 2 million...

GIN1138 said:

What the heck is going on at Survation?

YouGov and Survation tonight have been absolutely unbelievable. And we haven't even got the VI from Survation yet....

williamglenn said:

GIN1138 said:

What the heck is going on at Survation?

A massive to herd or not to herd argument?

Have to say that was my cynical thought too.

RobCL said:

Seems appropriate from Matt tonight

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/matt-cartoons-june-2017/

Am I the only person who loves the Alex cartoons in the Telegraph business section ?

re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?

another_richard said:

RobCL said:

Seems appropriate from Matt tonight

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/matt-cartoons-june-2017/

Am I the only person who loves the Alex cartoons in the Telegraph business section ?

I like them, but there is quite a lot of recycling over time

midwinter said:

Pong said:

Nigelb said:

Interesting Matthew Parris bit about May on Newsnight.
Eric Pickles seriously off message on how bad May is at negotiation.

Very interesting.

If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.

Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.

Mr Osborne will be rubbing his hands with glee...

Has he endorsed anybody yet?

kle4 said:

Been told by an acquaintance that it'll be around 3am before most of the Tory targets will be declared in Scotland - we should have an overall picture by then though, right?

Many Scottish seats declare 2am to 4 am. Edinburgh and Glasgow do centralised counts, so depending on turnout can be 4am to 6am.

Berwickshire, R & S is normally last.

Chris_A said:

re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?

Does anyone know if we can edit it or download a copy etc? (I have copied and pasted it)

HurstLlama said:

kyf_100 said:

Andrew said:

Alistair said:

I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?

Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.

The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.

If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.

I am a lover of the Laphroaig and have been for many, many years. But it is not a Whisky suitable for drinking on all occasions. Late in the evening, after a good meal, it is hard to beat or late on a cold winter's afternoon after a day in the open air. It is not, in my view, an all day whisky; I would not, for example, fill my flask with it when going out for a morning on the local shoot (the Grouse is good enough for those sort of events).

I don't hold with putting water in it either. A separate glass of still mineral water and take them in alternate sips seems the best way to of drinking a fine whisky to me.

Tried Caol Ila, Islay, smoother and richer than Laphroaig? Anyway, as someone taught many years ago, and making more money in tips than my wages, working in a bar with over 180 single malts - take your glass of whisky, have a sniff of the bouquet, take a small sip to get the taste, reflect on the mysteries of the universe - now the magic starts, gently pour some slightly chilled water into the whisky until it hazes (no bs, it will do that), it clears in a few seconds, take another sniff and then a sip. You will find that the whisky has now "wakened" (no, I have no idea why it happens, it just does). Repeat. And each time, you will experience slightly different taste sensations and aromas.
At last, when the glass is empty, you get a refill. After you have considered which of the tastes you enjoyed the most from your first glass, you will probably be tempted to add what you think is the correct amount of water to the whisky. However much or little you add, you will probably be wrong. It would be a great pity to waste the whisky and there is always the next glass to try again.
After the fifth or sixth glashes of whishkey, you will probably pouring the whisky into the water and who the hell cares anyway....

another_richard said:

Any recommendations for a safe constituency I park some of my bank balance for a short term tax free easy return ?

Norwich South Lab 1/4 SkyBet looks good to me.

Labour Selly Oak at 4/11 looks very enticing

kle4 said:

midwinter said:

Pong said:

Nigelb said:

Interesting Matthew Parris bit about May on Newsnight.
Eric Pickles seriously off message on how bad May is at negotiation.

Very interesting.

If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.

Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.

Mr Osborne will be rubbing his hands with glee...

Has he endorsed anybody yet?

Yes - Theresa May and the conservatives and trashed Corbyn personally and economically

isam said:

I wish all Islamic extremists did was commit 'hate crime'

twitter.com/standardnews/status/872576410199629825

Is it more of the "reported" hate crimes. We get this every time and when justice is served and the stats are done there never turns out to be any statistical significant spike in those crimes.

isam said:

Isn't that a Happy Mondays song?

Lord Maude vs Judge Fudge? Herp derp.

This Survation poll had better be worth it

FrancisUrquhart said:

isam said:

I wish all Islamic extremists did was commit 'hate crime'

twitter.com/standardnews/status/872576410199629825

Is it more of the "reported" hate crimes. We get this every time and when justice is served and the stats are done there never turns out to be any statistical significant spike in those crimes.

Maybe someone drew a picture of Mohamed. Naughty naughty

Paul Mason being unusually measured on Newsnight.

RobD said:

BenedictWhite said:

Chris_A said:

re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?

Does anyone know if we can edit it or download a copy etc? (I have copied and pasted it)

There should be some options under the file menu to do that.

There is no file menu I can see.

isam said:

I wish all Islamic extremists did was commit 'hate crime'

https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/872576410199629825

Does he class all the terror attacks and foiled terror attacks as hate crimes?

If Corbyn gets in, then that's Paul Mason on our screens for the next 5 years then....

RobD said:

numbertwelve said:

This Survation poll had better be worth it

When is it due?

Two hours ago?

AndyJS said:

BenedictWhite said:

Chris_A said:

re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?

Does anyone know if we can edit it or download a copy etc? (I have copied and pasted it)

I think you can copy the data into another document. Or I can send you a copy via email.

Could you email me a copy please? Do you have my email? Also where would someone put in results as they come in? Or are you staying up all night to fill it out?

hunchman said:

numbertwelve said:

This Survation poll had better be worth it

Do you think they will raise the white flag like YouGov?!

Sensible option would be +3, since the next lowest is now +4. Gives em some chance of being most accurate, and a 2point move is kinda meaningless on a 1k sample.

Pulpstar said:

LucyJones said:

Two mini anecdotes:

I have two friends in Barrow who are log-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.

I like to ask my politically-uninterested husband for the mood in his Essex office for a guide to what "normal" people think. They were all up for Leave in the referendum. And they all think Corbyn would be a disaster.

The tactical anti-Corbyn vote

I work in an Essex office - I sometimes doubt we are normal though :-)

2 people - 1 of whom generaly votes tory thinks Jezza will be pm - the rest taking piss out of Abbott

Floater said:

Pulpstar said:

LucyJones said:

Two mini anecdotes:

I have two friends in Barrow who are log-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.

I like to ask my politically-uninterested husband for the mood in his Essex office for a guide to what "normal" people think. They were all up for Leave in the referendum. And they all think Corbyn would be a disaster.

The tactical anti-Corbyn vote

I work in an Essex office - I sometimes doubt we are normal though :-)

2 people - 1 of whom generaly votes tory thinks Jezza will be pm - the rest taking piss out of Abbott

Edit - he thinks Jezza will win but voted blue by postal

Survation - Eye of the Tiger

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btPJPFnesV4

Nigelb said:

Paul Mason being unusually measured on Newsnight.

Because he knows JCWNBPM

Floater said:

isam said:

I wish all Islamic extremists did was commit 'hate crime'

https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/872576410199629825

Does he class all the terror attacks and foiled terror attacks as hate crimes?

They're not as serious as that.