Subsample heaven. The gigantic swing to the Tories in the NE, if true, would explain a lot of Tory activity up there. Conversely, though, the negligible swing in both West and East Midlands would save a lot of Labour seats. The swing to Labour in SE (outside London) and SW doesn't help much beyond a few seats.
That said, we know better than to overdose on subsamples.
David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
Obviously difficult to draw too many conclusions about sub samples, but they don't look right to me.
We will find out tomorrow but it looks like Labour is getting a swing to it in the South but everywhere else is swinging Tory, especially the North, Wales and Scotland
David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
I'm rather concerned about his state of mind - stress and overwork I expect.
Lets consider his comment - Con at 300 but still gain Wakefield.
If the Conservatives gain Wakefield they're likely to gain at least 20 seats so to fall to 300 they would need to lose at least 50 which they presently hold.
Now does anyone think that likely ?
And what's brought on this change of mind - some leafleting in Wakefield or Hemsworth ?
Another PBer had also just said in that thread that they'd finished leafletting, and thought the Conservatives were on 360+ so I think you may be right there.
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
No, he's pissed off. In fact, he's fuming.
He might be wrong as well but the response on the doorstep this evening was not healthy (from a Con viewpoint). Maybe I was just unlucky with who I spoke to (or who spoke to me) but it's a week since I've done serious canvassing as I've been delivering for most of the interim and the mood was definitely changed.
Sorry for posting that and then buggering off. Dinner and baby duties.
Sorry to hear that, David, but relax and enjoy what's left of the evening.
It sounds like a 'bad sample' to me. Sure you'll feel better in the morning.
If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .
David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
If it was anyone else but you, I'd probably discount it.
David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
Rest up David. We will be home comfotrably. Well done you for running two.
So only survation at 11.00 to come if I am right. Assume they could show a labour lead but it will miss the press and media tomorrow if it is as late as that
Can I just say, I don't know why the Tories on here are worried. Their worst poll in the whole campaign has had them on 40%. ICM have them comfortably ahead. It's just a question of how badly distributed Labour's votes are and therefore how big the Tory majority is.
I'm not a Tory. I'd have been a bit upset if Milliband had won, but because I thought he was a bit useless and his social democratic paradigm no longer works because globalism etc.
But that loathesome crew, Corbyn, the whole grisly crew . Milne being any where the levers of power.
Well either YouGov is indicating a move to the Conservatives/from Labour or they've blinked on their polling methods.
I think, however, that those pollsters who boosted the younger peoples vote percentages are on to something even if they have magnified beyond the actual vote. I can see many good reasons why the university going young will vote Labour, its like 'here, have some free stuff!'
Whats not to like. Its self interest, one of the the most powerful motivators.
I think too some may have a score to settle over Brexit, at least in their own heads, that it was stolen..whilst they didn't bother their collective arses actually voting..
I have, on the other hand, never understood the cult like nature of much of the modern politically active left or the cult over Corbyn but it exists.
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
Both.
But not mixed together!
I have half a bottle of Sainsbury's expensive whisky and then a litre of Blue Sapphire gin so I won't recognise the results, won't care and will feel very ill Friday....
David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.
David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
Oh well, if Mr Corbyn becomes PM at least there will be lots to talk about. Not so sure where the betting opportunities will be, though.
Have YouGov not done this in the previous two elections, or is my memory playing tricks on me? I seem to recall they overstated Labour more than other pollsters throughout those campaigns only to move back in their very final poll.
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
I'm rather concerned about his state of mind - stress and overwork I expect.
Lets consider his comment - Con at 300 but still gain Wakefield.
If the Conservatives gain Wakefield they're likely to gain at least 20 seats so to fall to 300 they would need to lose at least 50 which they presently hold.
Now does anyone think that likely ?
And what's brought on this change of mind - some leafleting in Wakefield or Hemsworth ?
Another PBer had also just said in that thread that they'd finished leafletting, and thought the Conservatives were on 360+ so I think you may be right there.
The other possibility is that, like Alastair Meeks said a few weeks ago, individual seats could swing wildly all over the place, but, given a person can only be in one place at one time, extrapolations from that to form the national picture may be wildly incorrect.
If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .
Though it looks like there certainly will not be UNS if Comres is anything to go by, there will be a swing to Labour in the South and the Tories in the Midlands, the North, Wales and Scotland. Of course in 2015 Yougov had it tied in their final poll
David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.
If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .
UNS (I know, I know) suggests Tory majority of 60-odd.
Isn't it the case that there's a range of variables in a 7 point lead? You could be looking at anything from only very minor advances to a fairly substantial win.
David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.
YouGov's mega model also suggests the reemergence of tactical voting as the campaign closes....no change in Tory/Labour VI, but projecting more Labour and more LibDem seats and fewer Tory...
Hmm maybe not very positive overall for the Tories. They will do much better in the North of England, but broadly neutral or going backwards elsewhere. Bear in mind ComRes is the polling company that rates the Conservatives highest.
David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
David, I appreciate your honesty at this late stage of the campaign. You seem to be swimming against the tide, certainly on PB, but I hope your gut feel is right.
David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.
David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.
It seems like you have an incredible amount on your plate. Hope you can get some rest. If May gets near to 325 she may be able to run Con minority government.
David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
I have been at a family funeral, the second in two weeks. It was a magnificent Brideshead-style Anglo-Irish Catholic service followed by a brilliant, funny and boozy wake that my much beloved cousin would have loved!
I see that @david_herdson has joined me in thinking that Corbyn might just do it.
David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
You can have weird sampling error. As a counter to David's evening, I was out one night door-knocking in Torbay and virtually every door I went to was a) in (rare!) b) prepared to tell me how they were voting c) were all voting Tory (including switchers from other parties) d) included finding someone who wanted not only two posters - but also to make a donation to Kevin's campaign.
We just joked it was down to my lucky hat. The days aren't all like that!
All this election fever is distracting us from the amazing shit going own in America. Comey's written testimony is sensational and the Senate have actually put Obamacare repeal on the fast track and it could be done and dusted by July.
If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .
Though it looks like there certainly will not be UNS if Comres is anything to go by, there will be a swing to Labour in the South and the Tories in the Midlands, the North, Wales and Scotland. Of course in 2015 Yougov had it tied in their final poll
No swing to the Conservatives in Wales in a proper full poll not a sub sample of 2 men and a sheep .
David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
Still, exact same difference between the parties as last time, what a waste of time and effort. And LDs up but still likely to lose seats as others up even more.
Everyone always said YouGov knew what they are doing.
If that's the result, the LDs would stand still, as that gives them +2 in Scotland* and -2 in England & Wales.
I have been at a family funeral, the second in two weeks. It was a magnificent Brideshead-style Anglo-Irish Catholic service followed by a brilliant, funny and boozy wake that my much beloved cousin would have loved!
I see that @david_herdson has joined me in thinking that Corbyn might just do it.
I know, and with two such erudite and respected posters thinking it isn't helping the rest of us settle!
Looking at the Wikipedia overview, it really does look as though the London terrorism produced a 4-point swing from Lab to Con. Obviously it could be a coincidence with so much else going on, but I wonder if the single "Enough is Enough" phrase cut through to a small but siginificant slice of waverers.
David Herdson has clearly had a bad session but we all have those sometimes - take a break for a few days once the election's over, you must have earned it.
If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .
UNS (I know, I know) suggests Tory majority of 60-odd.
Isn't it the case that there's a range of variables in a 7 point lead? You could be looking at anything from only very minor advances to a fairly substantial win.
No it doesn't , strict UNS in every seat would be virtually no change . Baxter and other models are not strict UNS .
David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.
And he is reporting from the North, where the Tories are supposedly doing a historical best according to the polls.
Looking at the Wikipedia overview, it really does look as though the London terrorism produced a 4-point swing from Lab to Con. Obviously it could be a coincidence with so much else going on, but I wonder if the single "Enough is Enough" phrase cut through to a small but siginificant slice of waverers.
David Herdson has clearly had a bad session but we all have those sometimes - take a break for a few days once the election's over, you must have earned it.
Don't share your politics but reminded once again, after my seven year absence from here, of your decency and the fairness of your commentary, Dr Palmer.
I bet the phrase 'community relations' was mentioned somewhere along the line as well.
Why does no one give a toss about the non muslim populations feelings? Whenever there is an attack, politicians tell US not to single out the Muslim community as a whole, bang on about Islamaphobia etc, despite there never being any attacks on Muslims by people reacting to Islamic extremism.
What would be nice is a senior Muslim saying "I understand what you all must be thinking and I apologise for the actions taken in the name of my religion. Thank you for your amazing tolerance, we aren't all like this" etc. Why should it be on the victims to be understanding?
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.
The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.
If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.
Looks like slight herding to me. YouGov made methodology changes as outlined below:
"As this is our final call before the election we made two minor changes to our method. The first is that rather than asking people which party they’d vote for, we showed respondents a list of the people actually standing in their constituency and asked which one they would vote for. Hopefully this will help pick up any tactical vote considerations and remove any issue of people saying they would vote UKIP or Green in seats where UKIP or the Greens are not actually standing.
Secondly we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015."
They clearly weren't confident about their own predictions, they're quite keen to state they think there'll be an increased majority:
"For now, YouGov’s final call for the 2017 election is for a seven point Conservative lead, leading to an increased Conservative majority in the Commons."
ALSO: Remember that their model is showing Labour's standing increasing over the last few days. So this doesn't sound that accurate to me, showing a steep 3 point drop. I just think they're bricking it. It's probably more accurate now, though.
Still, exact same difference between the parties as last time, what a waste of time and effort. And LDs up but still likely to lose seats as others up even more.
Everyone always said YouGov knew what they are doing.
If that's the result, the LDs would stand still, as that gives them +2 in Scotland* and -2 in England & Wales.
There would be no LD losses in England on those figures , even Brake would hold on !!!
"A friend of mine who lives here but is registered in Hull had applied for her mum to vote by proxy for her, but her by proxy card never arrived for her mum...is there anything she can do? (I know it's not local but every vote matters and she's super annoyed if she has just lost her vote!!!)"
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
So they faff about for the fortnight prior to the election then change their methodology for the final poll?
I give up. the cynic in me would suggest it's awfully convenient that their methodology showed a narrower lead around the time the campaign in chaos narrative picked up...
"A friend of mine who lives here but is registered in Hull had applied for her mum to vote by proxy for her, but her by proxy card never arrived for her mum...is there anything she can do? (I know it's not local but every vote matters and she's super annoyed if she has just lost her vote!!!)"
Any advice?
You don't need the card to be able to vote. If the person is sure the proxy application was made in time, just (ask the mum to) go to the polling station with some ID.
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.
The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.
If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.
"A friend of mine who lives here but is registered in Hull had applied for her mum to vote by proxy for her, but her by proxy card never arrived for her mum...is there anything she can do? (I know it's not local but every vote matters and she's super annoyed if she has just lost her vote!!!)"
Any advice?
I think you can apply for an emergency proxy up until 5pm on polling day. Contact returning officer's office first thing.
Looking at the Wikipedia overview, it really does look as though the London terrorism produced a 4-point swing from Lab to Con. Obviously it could be a coincidence with so much else going on, but I wonder if the single "Enough is Enough" phrase cut through to a small but siginificant slice of waverers.
David Herdson has clearly had a bad session but we all have those sometimes - take a break for a few days once the election's over, you must have earned it.
Still, exact same difference between the parties as last time, what a waste of time and effort. And LDs up but still likely to lose seats as others up even more.
Everyone always said YouGov knew what they are doing.
If that's the result, the LDs would stand still, as that gives them +2 in Scotland* and -2 in England & Wales.
There would be no LD losses in England on those figures , even Brake would hold on !!!
Looks like slight herding to me. YouGov made methodology changes as outlined below:
"As this is our final call before the election we made two minor changes to our method. The first is that rather than asking people which party they’d vote for, we showed respondents a list of the people actually standing in their constituency and asked which one they would vote for. Hopefully this will help pick up any tactical vote considerations and remove any issue of people saying they would vote UKIP or Green in seats where UKIP or the Greens are not actually standing.
Secondly we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015."
They clearly weren't confident about their own predictions, they're quite keen to state they think there'll be an increased majority:
"For now, YouGov’s final call for the 2017 election is for a seven point Conservative lead, leading to an increased Conservative majority in the Commons."
ALSO: Remember that their model is showing Labour's standing increasing over the last few days. So this doesn't sound that accurate to me, showing a steep 3 point drop. I just think they're bricking it. It's probably more accurate now, though.
That's helpful, thanks - what they've done is similar to part of ICM's tweaks - ICM also (in my view rather contrroversially) override don't knows, though ICM go further and override people who won't say how they voted last time either (by *guessing* that they'll behave like *other* people who've said they didn't know in past elections).
Do we have a figure for raw "party preferred before turnout adjustment" from any of these?
Comments
Be glad when this election is over.
So ICM have found noisy Tories.
That said, we know better than to overdose on subsamples.
It sounds like a 'bad sample' to me. Sure you'll feel better in the morning.
Such a thing to have on your conscience for the next five years...
However Con supporters should be pleased with tonight's polls - because they show the fall in the lead has stopped - things have stabilised.
That could be the precursor to a last minute swing towards Con in the polling booth.
Even Kantar leader and economy fundamentals are better for Con than headline VI - which might also suggest a few people bottle it at the last minute.
How can someone wave the ISIS flag about and not get arrested? What a joke
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/872383495112450048
But that loathesome crew, Corbyn, the whole grisly crew . Milne being any where the levers of power.
I think, however, that those pollsters who boosted the younger peoples vote percentages are on to something even if they have magnified beyond the actual vote. I can see many good reasons why the university going young will vote Labour, its like 'here, have some free stuff!'
Whats not to like. Its self interest, one of the the most powerful motivators.
I think too some may have a score to settle over Brexit, at least in their own heads, that it was stolen..whilst they didn't bother their collective arses actually voting..
I have, on the other hand, never understood the cult like nature of much of the modern politically active left or the cult over Corbyn but it exists.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.
edited to add: good evening, everyone.
Isn't it the case that there's a range of variables in a 7 point lead? You could be looking at anything from only very minor advances to a fairly substantial win.
Where ?
@Casino_Royale Good point.
I have been at a family funeral, the second in two weeks. It was a magnificent Brideshead-style Anglo-Irish Catholic service followed by a brilliant, funny and boozy wake that my much beloved cousin would have loved!
I see that @david_herdson has joined me in thinking that Corbyn might just do it.
We just joked it was down to my lucky hat. The days aren't all like that!
I'd get on Dem gains in the mid-terms right now.
London
Cons 37
Lab 41
LD 12
South
Cons 50
Lab 30
LD 13
Midlands/Wales
Cons 43
Lab 34
LD 10
North
Cons 38
Lab 47
LD 10
Scotland
Cons 28
Lab 22
LD 7
SNP 41
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/d8zsb99eyd/TimesResults_FINAL CALL_GB_June2017_W.pdf
David Herdson has clearly had a bad session but we all have those sometimes - take a break for a few days once the election's over, you must have earned it.
PB found him by accident!
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872562697333862401
Goodnight all.
What would be nice is a senior Muslim saying "I understand what you all must be thinking and I apologise for the actions taken in the name of my religion. Thank you for your amazing tolerance, we aren't all like this" etc. Why should it be on the victims to be understanding?
If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.
"As this is our final call before the election we made two minor changes to our method. The first is that rather than asking people which party they’d vote for, we showed respondents a list of the people actually standing in their constituency and asked which one they would vote for. Hopefully this will help pick up any tactical vote considerations and remove any issue of people saying they would vote UKIP or Green in seats where UKIP or the Greens are not actually standing.
Secondly we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015."
They clearly weren't confident about their own predictions, they're quite keen to state they think there'll be an increased majority:
"For now, YouGov’s final call for the 2017 election is for a seven point Conservative lead, leading to an increased Conservative majority in the Commons."
ALSO: Remember that their model is showing Labour's standing increasing over the last few days. So this doesn't sound that accurate to me, showing a steep 3 point drop. I just think they're bricking it. It's probably more accurate now, though.
See URL: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/final-call-poll-tories-seven-points-and-set-increa/
Diamond geezer assured.
"A friend of mine who lives here but is registered in Hull had applied for her mum to vote by proxy for her, but her by proxy card never arrived for her mum...is there anything she can do? (I know it's not local but every vote matters and she's super annoyed if she has just lost her vote!!!)"
Any advice?
I give up. the cynic in me would suggest it's awfully convenient that their methodology showed a narrower lead around the time the campaign in chaos narrative picked up...
Referring to Lab & Con vote shares.
Asked for £200/pt, got offered £50/pt.
I'll take that. They've nudged it up a bit since.
https://twitter.com/LiamFox
Is he that active in his government job ?
On the Google Docs spreadsheet posted earlier, is it read only? I can't see a space for current votes in it either way for tracking purposes.
Granted LDs will win Twickenham..
Quite simply it is very very hard to tell which ones out of those thousands will suddenly spontaneously combust......
Do we have a figure for raw "party preferred before turnout adjustment" from any of these?
Argyll & Bute, 6-1. You heard it from me about twenty times.
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