Isn't BMG the key bit of data here? That's Labour's internal pollster saying CON lead of 13. Both front benches making constituency visits that tally with that. With occasional exceptions, doorknocking reports outside of London posted here have been there or thereabouts. Atul over at Labour Uncut saying they are getting that sort of mood music. Baxter BMG for CON MAJ 110.
Isn't BMG the key bit of data here? That's Labour's internal pollster saying CON lead of 13. Both front benches making constituency visits that tally with that. With occasional exceptions, doorknocking reports outside of London posted here have been there or thereabouts. Atul over at Labour Uncut saying they are getting that sort of mood music. Baxter BMG for CON MAJ 110.
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
Have them both ready, if the Exit poll matches your best betting position, open the 18 year old Glenfiddich. If it doesn't, open the Laphroaig, I should add that fitaloon and my brother in law are huge fans of Laphroaig, where as I as a rare whisky drinker am not! But I am a fan of the 18 year old Glenfiddich and Caol Ila, and I highly recommend the aptly named 21 year old Glendronach Parliament too. I have expensive taste when it comes to whisky!
Bit of expectations management going on, I suspect:
The Scottish National party is braced for the loss of up to a dozen Westminster seats in the general election, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats threatening to inflict defeats in its rural heartlands.
Senior figures in Nicola Sturgeon’s party predict the Moray seat held by its Westminster leader, Angus Robertson, and the neighbouring seat of Banff and Buchan could fall to the Conservatives if enough voters endorse Brexit and switch sides to block a second independence referendum.
They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them
Yes, for faxes. Faxes???? Yes, if you are dealing with HIPA sensitive data, you can't use e-mail so need a fax. Go figure.
no way is Corbyn polling higher than blair in 2005 or milliband in 2015
With the collapse of Lib Dem, it seems certain he will beat Ed, but getting Tony Blair numbers just seem completely mad...but then I don't understand what the yuff see in Corbyn, he scares the crap out of me so much I am voting Tory for the first time ever at a GE.
Unlike Sanders in the US, who the Clinton machine couldn't find any dirt on, Corbyn is like a pig in mud when it comes to crap in his backstory.
The Clintons didn't release any dirt on Bernie. Who knows what they found, but if they thought they could win the primary regardless and avoid alienating all the young Bernie volunteers any further, then maybe they sat on stuff.
no way is Corbyn polling higher than blair in 2005 or milliband in 2015
With the collapse of Lib Dem, it seems certain he will beat Ed, but getting Tony Blair numbers just seem completely mad...but then I don't understand what the yuff see in Corbyn, he scares the crap out of me so much I am voting Tory for the first time ever at a GE.
Unlike Sanders in the US, who the Clinton machine couldn't find any dirt on, Corbyn is like a pig in mud when it comes to crap in his backstory.
The Clintons didn't release any dirt on Bernie. Who knows what they found, but if they thought they could win the primary regardless and avoid alienating all the young Bernie volunteers any further, then maybe they sat on stuff.
It would be completely out of character for any Clinton campaign not to use whatever dirt they had on any opponent. And even if they decided for tactical reasons that the official campaign should not have used it, there is no way that David Brock and the other rabid attack dogs would not have gone ahead regardless.
FPT. Nick Palmer "That's actually illegal, isn't it? Teachers are allowed to encourage pupils to explore ideas and compare alternative beliefs, but are phohibited from expressing their own political opinions. There was a minor row in Nottingham because a head teacher signed a letter endorsing Labour, and Tories objected: his get-out was that it was entirely outside the school."
Way back in the early 1980's when I was a pupil at a Highland Secondary school we used to have some amazingly robust political debates with one of our teachers who also happened to be the Teachers Union Rep, and a dyed in the wool Labour supporter verging on being a Trot. I remember him doing a quick voting intention poll of our then 15/16 age group and nearly fainting when everyone put their hand up for Thatcher rather than Foot! Not that it mattered in our seat at the time as neither Conservatives or Labour had a chance against the original yellow peril that was Russell Johnston! I reckon he wrote the Liberal book on how to be as near damn it an Independent 'local constituency MP'! To this day it still makes me smile at just how many 'local independent' councillors the Highland Council elections return when everyone in their patch knows their political party leanings.
It is a fascinating seat, back in 1992 when Russell Johnston ran for the last time as a candidate and won, it then became that incredible four way marginal. And then it went Labour from 1997-2005, but with the SNP in second place before Danny Alexander for the Libdems won the seat back again until 2015. Have to admit that his defeat in that SNP tsunami was a big surprise for me. But then again, he did have his constituency home in my home village where most of my friends and relatives liked him and admitted that he was a very good local MP while all being dyed in the Wool Nats!
PS. I have asked my still Libdem voting Mum to look out for a letter from a gentleman called Mike Smithson of PB.com! Reminded her that this was the blog site her daughter often talked about as her favourite place for great cross party political debate.
Marriott has it a comfortable SNP Hold (37 to Con & Lab both on 29) - though we'll see what impact, if any, Sturgeon's FerreroRochering to Dugdale has done....
Its their predictions/figures for Banff and Buchan and Gordon that I find really fascinating when you consider who vacated the former seat to then go onto win the latter seat.
Much as I'd love to believe the Survation poll, my chief hope now is that a couple of short people have found a bit of old jewellery that May lost and will throw it into the crack of doom thus depriving her of her power.
And the good news is that Labour has done well amongst the young, so as long as the Tories don't enfranchise the tormented souls of the unquiet dead there is still hope for the future.
Comments
Is there any particular reason to believe BMG's methodology?
Do we even know what its methodology is? Do they weight turnout as per ICM and ComRes?
The Scottish National party is braced for the loss of up to a dozen Westminster seats in the general election, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats threatening to inflict defeats in its rural heartlands.
Senior figures in Nicola Sturgeon’s party predict the Moray seat held by its Westminster leader, Angus Robertson, and the neighbouring seat of Banff and Buchan could fall to the Conservatives if enough voters endorse Brexit and switch sides to block a second independence referendum.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/snp-anti-independence-nicola-sturgeon-angus-robertson
The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-three-scenarios-for-the-u-k-election/
Sir David Butler said it more succinctly: "I don't know"
Must have missed that.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/
Way back in the early 1980's when I was a pupil at a Highland Secondary school we used to have some amazingly robust political debates with one of our teachers who also happened to be the Teachers Union Rep, and a dyed in the wool Labour supporter verging on being a Trot. I remember him doing a quick voting intention poll of our then 15/16 age group and nearly fainting when everyone put their hand up for Thatcher rather than Foot! Not that it mattered in our seat at the time as neither Conservatives or Labour had a chance against the original yellow peril that was Russell Johnston! I reckon he wrote the Liberal book on how to be as near damn it an Independent 'local constituency MP'! To this day it still makes me smile at just how many 'local independent' councillors the Highland Council elections return when everyone in their patch knows their political party leanings.
It is a fascinating seat, back in 1992 when Russell Johnston ran for the last time as a candidate and won, it then became that incredible four way marginal. And then it went Labour from 1997-2005, but with the SNP in second place before Danny Alexander for the Libdems won the seat back again until 2015. Have to admit that his defeat in that SNP tsunami was a big surprise for me. But then again, he did have his constituency home in my home village where most of my friends and relatives liked him and admitted that he was a very good local MP while all being dyed in the Wool Nats!
PS. I have asked my still Libdem voting Mum to look out for a letter from a gentleman called Mike Smithson of PB.com! Reminded her that this was the blog site her daughter often talked about as her favourite place for great cross party political debate.
You'll be able to see the 2017 GE Polling Enquiry from Space....
And the good news is that Labour has done well amongst the young, so as long as the Tories don't enfranchise the tormented souls of the unquiet dead there is still hope for the future.